Ukraine War, 21 November 2024: The Tsar is Furious (UPDATED)

Hello everybody!

Around 05.10hrs of this morning, Russia launched one or more of intercontinental ballistic missile/s (ICBMs) from Kapustin Yar, in the Astrakhan Oblast to strike an industrial facility in the city of Dnipro.

A still from a video showing the strike on Dnipro, around 05.10hrs this morning. The six flashes visible here might indicate deployment of multiple re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), as usually carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles. The same video is showing three such series of flashes. However, the systems said to have been deployed by the Russians for this strike - RS-26 or RS-25 - are known to be equipped with ‘only’ four MIRVs (each weighting 125-250kg).

Presently, it is unclear if the Russians deployed one of RS-26 Rubezh (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘SS-X-31’) or one of RS-24 Yars missiles (ASCC/NATO-reporting name ‘SS-27 Mod 2’), and one, two or three such missiles. Each is a solid-fuelled missile that can deliver up to four warheads over a range of (at least) 5,800km (RS-26) or up to 12,000km (RS-24): Rubezh is the shortened version of the RS-24 Yars. So far, there were doubts if these two missiles can deploy conventional warheads, and reports have it that the development of the RS-26 was stopped on behalf of developing hypersonic weapons, but I think this question has now been answered.

A reconstruction of a single transporter-erector-launcher for RS-26 Rubezh missile (bottom), and a diagram of the missile.

By around the noon local time, most of Ukrainian sources were talking about ‘RS-26’ - and then one armed with no less than 18 empty and small MIRVs (apparently, each some 50kg heavy, and including no explosive filler).

In his related public appearance, later during the day, Putin named the missile deployed as ‘Oreshnik’. He added the missile is attacking its target at a speed of Mach 10.

Point about the use of such missiles is that they are exceeding the intercept capabilities of such surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs) in service with the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (PSU), like PAC-2/3 Patriot, IRIS-T, SAMP-T, and/or S-300 (indeed, to defend itself from attacks of this kind, Ukraine would need something like US-made Standard SM-6 or THAAD, capable of intercepting incoming ballistic missiles at very high altitudes - which Washington is extremely unlikely to deliver). This was of importance because Pudding certainly wanted his message ‘delivered’, not ‘shot down’ - which is also the reason why this missile (or missiles) have targeted less-well-protected Dnipro, not well-protected Kyiv.

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This attack came ‘in retaliation’ for two Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russia.

1.) On 18 November, the HUR hit a communication post of the VSRF Group Sever in Gubkin (Sovetskaya Street 25A), Belgorod Oblast. The facility in question was a sanatorium positioned within the Orlyonok camp, a recreational facility – which is why some are expressing their doubts about the Ukrainians actually hitting a military target. A UAV-taken video of this strike can be found here. The Russians denied any hits, and said, ‘only minor damage on apartment buildings, caused by debris’.

A Google Earth-view of the Maryno complex, in Gubkin.

2.) On 20 November, around 15.00hrs local time, the PSU deployed a total of 12 Storm Shadow missiles to strike a HQ of the VSRF in Maryno. The targeted HQ should be underground, under a small forest within another ‘recreational’ facility). The Ukrainian HUR says it was the HQ of the Group Sever, though, and it should be kept in mind the VSRF is regularly positioning such facilities within ‘recreational centres’, hotels and similar complexes, and that both in Russia and inside Ukraine (mind the HQ 6^th CAA Nezhegol recreational facility outside Shebekino, hit back on 9 June, just for example). The Russians have detected this strike early, but seem to have expected an attack on the Yeysk area (no idea why… perhaps involved Su-24s were refuelled on one of air bases in southern Ukraine before ‘turning north’).

Latest reports say that 18 Russian officers were killed and 33 wounded, ‘including 3 North Korans’. Lieutenant-General Solodchuk, Deputy Commander Leningrad Military District, should have been on the site at the time of the strike, but his condition remains unknown.

Around 19.00hrs, an explosion then occurred at the same site, wounding 13 troops from the 88th Engineer Regiment (including the Deputy Chief-of-Staff of that unit).

Notably: even the Russians are not only surprised by the deployment of 12 Storm Shadow missiles in a single strike, but they do admit, if as many were fired at the same facility, then there must have been something very important there.

Moreover, not only the Russians, but even many of Western observers are surprised the PSU still has as many Su-24s to get six of these into the air at the same time. So much so, some started guessing that the Ukrainians deployed French-delivered Mirage 2000-5Fs for this attack…

Well, yes: losses of the 7th Brigade PSU were heavy: some 19 operational Su-24M/MRs were confirmed as shot down, destroyed on the ground, or written off in accidents since February 2022 (and then so well-confirmed that their serial numbers and names of both crewmembers are known). Already this is almost as many Su-24s as that unit had in service at the start of the Russian all-out invasion - not to talk about possible/probable additional losses that remain unknown. And yes, sure, Ukraine had relatively poor infrastructure necessary to maintain and overhaul this type, which is why only some 7 Su-24M/MRs have been overhauled and returned to service from 2014 until 2022. However, this does not mean that Ukraine has lost all ability to overhaul additional from dozens of Su-24-airframes that were in storage at the time of the Russian invasion: quite on the contrary, related efforts were greatly increased ever since.

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Why am I ‘pointing out’ these two Ukrainian attacks as reasons for Putin ordering a strike on Dnipro by RS-26 or RS-24 missiles?

Because, neither him nor the Keystone Cops in Moscow can care less if the Ukrainians blow up another ammunition dump in Russia, or some air base. From their standpoints, such affairs ‘do not matter’ as much as ‘loyalty’. That is why they do get ‘white mad’ when the Ukrainians kill ‘one or another or their very own’: _top_ commanders of the VSRF, GRU, or FSB. In this regards, Pudding and his ‘inner circle’ resemble the British during the American Revolution, disgusted when the ‘rebels/terrorist’ started shooting at British Army’s officers: such practice was considered ‘unfair’. In the case of Pudding & Co., top commanders are ‘very important buddies’ because ‘proven as loyal’…

Notably, the Russian preparations for the counter-strike on Dnipro must have been tracked by NATO, because yesterday the USA, Germany, France, Spain etc. (for example) have ordered the closing of their embassies in Kyiv (resulting in ‘half of the city’ being paralised by traffic caused by their evacuations) – all because of a ‘possible nuclear attack’. Alternativelly, perhaps the Russians really made use of one of still-valid treaties with the USA, according to which each side has to notify the other about a launch of an ICBM at least 24 hours in advance.

That said, not only the USA, but both the PR China and India have – repeatedly – warned Putin against deployment of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Furthermore, it remains so that Putin can’t really be sure all the 24 instances between him and the actual ‘red buttom’ would follow such an order, nor that the missile in question would actually work. Thus, such a development - a Russian attack with nuclear bombs on Ukraine - remains unlikely.

How precise was the Russian attack on Dnipro strike? That’s presently impossible to asses independently. Part of the reason is that simultaneously with the RS-26 or RS-24, the Russians attacked with 6 Kh-101 cruise missiles (all six were shot down), and 1 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile.

Official Kyiv reported damage on ‘an industrial facility’ and ‘two fires’.

Unofficial Russian sources claim they have targeted the Yuzhmash Factory (AFAIK, as of 10.00hrs local time, there was no related statement either by Pudding or his Keystone Cops in Moscow).

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I guess that I’m going to edit/update this feature as additional info comes in, during the day.

For example:

• Both the Ukrainians and the Russians are reporting that only hours after the Russian ICBM-strike on Dnipro, multiple Ukrainian attack-UAVs have hit the Kapustin Jar test site, in the Astrakhan region: the place from which the Russians launched their attack.

• There is meanwhile another video from Dnipro in the social media, showing the ‘arrival’ of ‘multiple (up to 18) warheads’.

• Meanwhile it is known that two persons were injured by the Russian ICBM-strike on the Yuzhmash Factory.