Good news! The only news I’m missing are about successful strikes inside Russia - two recent attacks were allegedly intercepted - one on oil depot in St Pete and at an explosive plant in Dzerzhinsk or something like this.
By now we see Ru oil/diesel/benzin export decreased by 18% and its internal diesel export ban for next coming 6 months. Definitely UAV strikes on refineries is among possible reasons
More plausible is the delivery of Northrop Grumman's AIAMD explained in the "assault mode" saga, which by the way said post helped me a lot in understanding how the systems operate Sam, thank you for sharing your knowledge . .
I have a couple questions regarding the air warfare,.
1. You mentioned (I think yesterday), that most of the Russian planes were downed at the distance of 40-50 km (i.e. not the maximum SAM range). Would that also be the case should F-16s be used? I know Your biggest complaint is F-16s radars and arms are shorter ranged than their Russian counterparts. But then, gauging by the SAM range, would actually combining F-16 with the terrestrial air defense offset this disadvantage?
2. If I understand correctly, the Russian air fleet as of 2022 was maybe half a century ahead of the Ukrainian. I can see that Ukrainians are doing the impossible, be it integrating disparate systems or innovating drone technology, to counter this disadvantage. But realistically, is there anything short of a miracle Ukraine can technologically do (besides receiving massive western support) to deny Russians this advantage? What I mean is, it is hard to imagine the war could tilt to Ukrainian advantage, if Russians are able to drop 200 tons of bombs daily and freely.
UA has long-term traditions and one of world best engineers in missile construction: Yuzhmash plant, KB Luch, Progress plant etc. (Satana, Neptun, Stugna, Hrim, Vylkha…) so, not to going very deep into details, these entities are very busy now…
Theoretically, the land-based radars etc could feed data to the F-16s via Link-16, and the latter be completely silent on their radars but still getting enough targeting and situational awareness data in order to fight
1.) Nope. There is a major difference between SAMs and jet fighters. SAMs can remain in the combat zone for days. Jet fighters for seconds. This means that chances of a fighter-jet scoring kills from such long ranges are minimal.
2.) Right now, in the air, it's the battle of ranges: i.e. the Russians are seeking to deploy their guided bombs, glide bombs, and air-to-ground missiles from outside the range of Ukrainian SAMs, while Ukrainians are seeking to deploy their SAMs close enough to the frontline to reach the Russians, but still not too close to get hit by Russian UAVs or artillery.
In such circumstances, crucial issue is if Ukraine can get enough long-range SAMs or can the Russians buy time to develop longer-ranged glide bombs or air-to-ground missiles.
Thanks of report. I wanted to ask you about video of shotted Su 34, published by Okeshuk( PSU)but sadly it was fake. What do you think is needed for further damage to VKS because it looks like Ukraine found more effective way than year ago
Thank you again, Tom, for the comprehensive and detailed updates. I feel bad for saying I’m enjoying the frequency and they’re accompanying my own caffeine intake!
I had to re-watch the video in half speed in order to understand what was happening.
If I understand it correctly, multiple rounds from an autocannon hit the BTRs, then I counted at least three drones attacking the vehicle and the soldiers.
One thing I (think that I) understand about Russians is their tenacity. Unless beaten hard with overwhelming force, they will continue fighting (that's why they "won" in Assad's Syria, when almost everybody else said "fck it, we are leaving" )
They are experiencing lots of accidents, too: happens to every air force when it intensifies its operations - but especially to the VKS, because the quality of its maintenance is always decreasing when the Russians are in a rush, plus its crews do not receive the training teaching them to use their aircraft to the edge of envelope.
Good news! The only news I’m missing are about successful strikes inside Russia - two recent attacks were allegedly intercepted - one on oil depot in St Pete and at an explosive plant in Dzerzhinsk or something like this.
That needs more data, more time, more analysis: it's impossible to gauge impacts of that campaign based on single strikes.
...regardless how far from Ukrainian border, and how flashy this might appear.
By now we see Ru oil/diesel/benzin export decreased by 18% and its internal diesel export ban for next coming 6 months. Definitely UAV strikes on refineries is among possible reasons
A PP supplying 3 military plants was blown up today in Ekaterinbourgh.
Not only UAVs are effective.
It was a huge mistake to attack a country with hundreds year partizan traditions
PP = ??
Power plant
IIRC the news were about a power substation == high voltage transformer.
More plausible is the delivery of Northrop Grumman's AIAMD explained in the "assault mode" saga, which by the way said post helped me a lot in understanding how the systems operate Sam, thank you for sharing your knowledge . .
Enjoy your coffee and nicotine. I read your analysis every day and appreciate how you cut through the bullshit speculation on other platforms.
Hello Tom,
thank You very much for the update.
I have a couple questions regarding the air warfare,.
1. You mentioned (I think yesterday), that most of the Russian planes were downed at the distance of 40-50 km (i.e. not the maximum SAM range). Would that also be the case should F-16s be used? I know Your biggest complaint is F-16s radars and arms are shorter ranged than their Russian counterparts. But then, gauging by the SAM range, would actually combining F-16 with the terrestrial air defense offset this disadvantage?
2. If I understand correctly, the Russian air fleet as of 2022 was maybe half a century ahead of the Ukrainian. I can see that Ukrainians are doing the impossible, be it integrating disparate systems or innovating drone technology, to counter this disadvantage. But realistically, is there anything short of a miracle Ukraine can technologically do (besides receiving massive western support) to deny Russians this advantage? What I mean is, it is hard to imagine the war could tilt to Ukrainian advantage, if Russians are able to drop 200 tons of bombs daily and freely.
thank You
UA has long-term traditions and one of world best engineers in missile construction: Yuzhmash plant, KB Luch, Progress plant etc. (Satana, Neptun, Stugna, Hrim, Vylkha…) so, not to going very deep into details, these entities are very busy now…
Theoretically, the land-based radars etc could feed data to the F-16s via Link-16, and the latter be completely silent on their radars but still getting enough targeting and situational awareness data in order to fight
1.) Nope. There is a major difference between SAMs and jet fighters. SAMs can remain in the combat zone for days. Jet fighters for seconds. This means that chances of a fighter-jet scoring kills from such long ranges are minimal.
2.) Right now, in the air, it's the battle of ranges: i.e. the Russians are seeking to deploy their guided bombs, glide bombs, and air-to-ground missiles from outside the range of Ukrainian SAMs, while Ukrainians are seeking to deploy their SAMs close enough to the frontline to reach the Russians, but still not too close to get hit by Russian UAVs or artillery.
In such circumstances, crucial issue is if Ukraine can get enough long-range SAMs or can the Russians buy time to develop longer-ranged glide bombs or air-to-ground missiles.
Thank, You Tom, for bitter, but trustful update. God bless ZSU/PSU
Thank you Tom.
Comparably good news in a continuously dire phase…
Good morning Tom thanks for this report interesting for sure, keep posting the reports I'll keep reading them
Thank you so much. It seems that « a lot » is going on in Ukrainian war planning.
Thanks of report. I wanted to ask you about video of shotted Su 34, published by Okeshuk( PSU)but sadly it was fake. What do you think is needed for further damage to VKS because it looks like Ukraine found more effective way than year ago
It's like with the ground warfare: more SAMs. More missiles, and additional systems. And more electronic warfare systems.
Thank you for your update Tom. I have 1 hour to work and an hour back everyday in public transport. Glad to spend that time on reading your reports.
Thank you again, Tom, for the comprehensive and detailed updates. I feel bad for saying I’m enjoying the frequency and they’re accompanying my own caffeine intake!
:D At least one who does still enjoy caffeine intake.
+1
Work on S-300 radar and Patriot missiles "Frankensam" was reported back in autumn, makes sense it is fielded by now:
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/frankensam-americans-are-integrating-patriot-missiles-with-soviet-air-defense-systems/
Thank you for your optimistic report. We hope to hear about 3 Russian jets definitely hit today.
That photo of the T-80 and the cuddled orcs is scary - too much meat density in a few square meters.
Were all they huddled on top of the tank?
Yup. Just like in the case of this BTR:
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1763990222075744315
Geez, nasty stuff...
I had to re-watch the video in half speed in order to understand what was happening.
If I understand it correctly, multiple rounds from an autocannon hit the BTRs, then I counted at least three drones attacking the vehicle and the soldiers.
One thing I (think that I) understand about Russians is their tenacity. Unless beaten hard with overwhelming force, they will continue fighting (that's why they "won" in Assad's Syria, when almost everybody else said "fck it, we are leaving" )
Are there any hopes for accidents of Russian planes from so many of their flights? What is the resource of these planes?
They are experiencing lots of accidents, too: happens to every air force when it intensifies its operations - but especially to the VKS, because the quality of its maintenance is always decreasing when the Russians are in a rush, plus its crews do not receive the training teaching them to use their aircraft to the edge of envelope.
Well, it seems that both Tonenke and Orlivka had fallen
:(
Fake news by the Russians. Not a single Russian around in Orlivka this morning.