I am just cautious there, as that would be the first ballistic strike into ru territory. Also it is at max range of 300+ km. From interview with Prytula, UA uses mix of various drones in attack, some of them anti-radar. But I could accept your word on that.
Some positive news at last. Many thanks for such thorough information. Alas Biden and Co are busy with their PR-action of setting free the feeble Russian "opposition" and 3 USA citizens while hundreds innocents are killed in Ukraine because of USA cowardice. Much ado about nearly nothing because less than 10 jets given to Ukraine at last is really next to nothing.
And yet when US aid was cut off due to domestic politics, Ukraine suffered.
Like so many nations, Ukraine included, the US has made mistakes and the US has done vitally good things. I understand emotions are strong when so much is on the line but it's best if nations and people are held accountable for what they actually do without hyperbole.
The US can still do things better. If the US did nothing, Ukraine's suffering would increase.
NATO was created to oppose and fight the Soviet Union if necessary. Now Ukraine alone is fighting the remnants of the Soviet Union and you are advocating the cowardice of NATO in general and of the USA in particular. I wonder why are you following Tom Cooper who shares my opinion and who constantly blames the "collective West" for the lack of military help to Ukraine.
Don is not advocating cowardice of Nato. He said that the US has made mistakes but also helped Ukraine. This is true. You can't just focus on mistakes and ignore the help they provided.
Helping Ukraine USA and NATO prevents Russian aggression towards minor NATO members namely Baltic states which were "Soviet republics" not long ago. In 2014 it was a lot of discussion concerning "the defense of Narva".
Many thanks Tom, also for the entire F16 series, for sure just scratching on the surface but for a reader like me extremely valuable.
Seems PSU moves in the right direction, hopefully Terminal guidance arrives sooner than later so they can pester Russian ABs with more efficient attacks every night…
I believe terminal guidance is there, considering how precisely specific parts of oil refineries were hit. As well as terrain mapping and recognition, means no reliance on GPS or similar signals. And also that is confirmed by VKS putting rubber tires on top of the aircrafts.
But there is something else preventing the highest efficiency. Maybe air-defence or maybe some nuances of how this terminal guidance works, or something else.
UAVs flying 500+km range use combined guidance solutions: GPS/GNSS, CDMA, Glonass, satellites, local mobile operators SIMcards and other more secret solutions. Up to 20-25% space inside such an UAV is taken by different communication equipment
both ADs - UA (less) and RU (much more) are leaky, object oriented - so the task of attacker is to plant a route through such holes in ADs and the task of defenders is to maneuver its limited number of ADSs in order to provide dynamical holes protection. Ru is much more bigger then UA, so number of holes and holes sizes differs dramatically.
of course, ABs are most watched objects, so number of UAVs taken down is much bigger then at refineries. Plants, PowerPlants etc in Ru are almost unprotected. I think long term SBU plan is to stretch and collapse RU ADS - they will not be able to protect all object in radius of 2000 km
"Romanian air defences claim to have shot down several Shaheds as these were approaching the port of Izmail via the Romanian airspace."
Is it the first time ever when a NATO country actually helped with shooting down Shaheds? And is there any proof-link, since I've never heard of such a thing happening before. So far, the most they could do was launching a few interceptors to watch and show deep concern.
That's weird, because if a sovereign country destroys a dangerous explosive flying thing in its own airspace, that can hardly be treated as an aggression towards the one who launched that explosive thing without permission.
1. We are speaking about Russia, you do nothing and they see an aggression. 2. Romania is most probably doing a lot of things (perhaps even downing some drones), but not officially, at least not yet. There are some reasons for that.
Dear Tom, thank you for report!
Why conclusion that Morozovsk AB was hit with ATACAMS? From the video you share I see UAVs, and from what I read had no hints of ballistic.
"- Around 19.00hrs local time, Ukrainians hit the Morozovsk AB by 4-8 ATACMs"
There were two attacks on Morozovsk AB: one by ATACMS and then a follow-up UAV-strike.
I am just cautious there, as that would be the first ballistic strike into ru territory. Also it is at max range of 300+ km. From interview with Prytula, UA uses mix of various drones in attack, some of them anti-radar. But I could accept your word on that.
One is not excluding the other.
On the contrary: deployment of a number of very different means is always more effective than deployment of just one type of weapons.
Some positive news at last. Many thanks for such thorough information. Alas Biden and Co are busy with their PR-action of setting free the feeble Russian "opposition" and 3 USA citizens while hundreds innocents are killed in Ukraine because of USA cowardice. Much ado about nearly nothing because less than 10 jets given to Ukraine at last is really next to nothing.
And yet when US aid was cut off due to domestic politics, Ukraine suffered.
Like so many nations, Ukraine included, the US has made mistakes and the US has done vitally good things. I understand emotions are strong when so much is on the line but it's best if nations and people are held accountable for what they actually do without hyperbole.
The US can still do things better. If the US did nothing, Ukraine's suffering would increase.
So true Don so true
It is easy to instruct Ukraine while sitting in security. Shame on you.
I beg your pardon I was not instructing Ukraine just agreeing with what was said the shame is on you
NATO was created to oppose and fight the Soviet Union if necessary. Now Ukraine alone is fighting the remnants of the Soviet Union and you are advocating the cowardice of NATO in general and of the USA in particular. I wonder why are you following Tom Cooper who shares my opinion and who constantly blames the "collective West" for the lack of military help to Ukraine.
Don is not advocating cowardice of Nato. He said that the US has made mistakes but also helped Ukraine. This is true. You can't just focus on mistakes and ignore the help they provided.
Helping Ukraine USA and NATO prevents Russian aggression towards minor NATO members namely Baltic states which were "Soviet republics" not long ago. In 2014 it was a lot of discussion concerning "the defense of Narva".
That's - crystal - clear to all of us, Elena.
It means not that everything the USA (and the EU) did for Ukraine is wrong, though.
It's just too little - and that too little is for wrong reasons. But, it's not all wrong or bad.
Many thanks Tom, also for the entire F16 series, for sure just scratching on the surface but for a reader like me extremely valuable.
Seems PSU moves in the right direction, hopefully Terminal guidance arrives sooner than later so they can pester Russian ABs with more efficient attacks every night…
I believe terminal guidance is there, considering how precisely specific parts of oil refineries were hit. As well as terrain mapping and recognition, means no reliance on GPS or similar signals. And also that is confirmed by VKS putting rubber tires on top of the aircrafts.
But there is something else preventing the highest efficiency. Maybe air-defence or maybe some nuances of how this terminal guidance works, or something else.
UAVs flying 500+km range use combined guidance solutions: GPS/GNSS, CDMA, Glonass, satellites, local mobile operators SIMcards and other more secret solutions. Up to 20-25% space inside such an UAV is taken by different communication equipment
both ADs - UA (less) and RU (much more) are leaky, object oriented - so the task of attacker is to plant a route through such holes in ADs and the task of defenders is to maneuver its limited number of ADSs in order to provide dynamical holes protection. Ru is much more bigger then UA, so number of holes and holes sizes differs dramatically.
of course, ABs are most watched objects, so number of UAVs taken down is much bigger then at refineries. Plants, PowerPlants etc in Ru are almost unprotected. I think long term SBU plan is to stretch and collapse RU ADS - they will not be able to protect all object in radius of 2000 km
Thanks for good summary, Generaly there are more positive as negative developments.
UA can use ATACMS on RU airports outside UA
UA drone attacks seems to be more effective as RU
RU has not enough S400 and try to save them for Kerch
If true that RU use flight personel as infantry than it is also a very good sign( incompetence or big problems with soldiers)
Bad news is that RU starts to shotdown ATACMS. Now question: Can UA destroy enough S400 before RU learns to shotdown it really good?
"Romanian air defences claim to have shot down several Shaheds as these were approaching the port of Izmail via the Romanian airspace."
Is it the first time ever when a NATO country actually helped with shooting down Shaheds? And is there any proof-link, since I've never heard of such a thing happening before. So far, the most they could do was launching a few interceptors to watch and show deep concern.
What is the source for this?
For now, this blog post only. Haven't seen it mentioned elsewhere yet.
Romania will not admit that, although it cannot be excluded. Officially it's been denied.
That's weird, because if a sovereign country destroys a dangerous explosive flying thing in its own airspace, that can hardly be treated as an aggression towards the one who launched that explosive thing without permission.
1. We are speaking about Russia, you do nothing and they see an aggression. 2. Romania is most probably doing a lot of things (perhaps even downing some drones), but not officially, at least not yet. There are some reasons for that.
Thanks for the update Tom
Ty for the updates
Thanks Tom this was a very good and interesting report
Thanks Tom Cooper for this dossier.