41 Comments
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Brenda Elthon's avatar

Thank you.

Very helpful, as always.

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RSentongo's avatar

thank you so much for this, looking forward to the QA.

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Al Ka's avatar

Firstly thanks for the update sir!

Secondly, back off General Grant. He didn't waste lives for no good reason. He was constantly exerting pressure on the Confederacy, so that they never got time to rest and reconstitute their best units. Just pulled them apart in every direction to fill holes and parry the ey until thy couldn't anymore.

Much as unfortunately RF is doing to the UA "fireman brigades". The fact that UA are pulling their remaining combat -capable brigades apart and pulling battalions here and there, ever since Avdiivka is not a good sign for future UA combat ability. The shirt is worn so thin that they are cutting the sleeves off to patch the holes. And there is no rotation or reconstitution in sight.

I am much less optimistic than you on this situation as it continues into the late summer and early fall (before any UA mobiks hit the front in large numbers). And that's frightening. I usually look to you for the depressing view, not to myself.

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Zodiac's avatar

Grant's moves final major battles of the Civil War are not really appropriate to the current situation facing Ukraine. Grant, with his troops and resources could afford to take losses and keep flanking. While The Wilderness and Cold Harbor where gruesome affairs, Grant had the luxury to keep pushing despite his abysmal loss of fighting men, Ukraine does not.

As to your comment on optimism, I never have seen Mr. Cooper as much of an optimist.

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Al Ka's avatar

Correct. I was comparing Grants strategy to what RF is doing not UA.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Knew I was about to 'slaughter a few holy cows' when expressing critique of Grant...

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Spike's avatar

Well, without Grant and Sherman the state which is the sole saviour of democracy wouldn't exist. Hence, you can't attack them or so...

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Andrew Tanner's avatar

Kill some more! Union-stan Americans are almost as bad as their Confederate-stan Southern counterparts with hero-worshiping incompetent buffoons.

The US Civil War was a massive exercise in mutual stupidity. Nobody comes out of that war looking good. Of course, then Europe repeated the lunacy 50 years later.

Grant, Sherman, Jackson, Lee - all useless excuses for leaders with good biographers. Most American Army and Air Force generals have always sucked.

Marines, on the other hand, are the true military intellectuals. Navy has traditionally been solid too. Only services the West Coast needs...

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Nick Fotis's avatar

Interestingly, the Marines have a reputation for too much bravery and not enough brains ("jarheads") etc. I don't know anything about them applying more brains than firepower

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Zodiac's avatar

Your comments reflect what I'm starting to see elsewhere in the "media". On Friday there was another assault by Russian forces on the city of Chasiv Yar. Leaving Bakhmut a Russian convoy attempting to transit the 5 km to Chasiv Yar proceeded to be annihilated by ZSU ATGMs, FPVs, and 100 lb artillery shells. Needless to say, what remained of the suicide march again did not cross the canal. Other than that anomaly, the American press still is fixated on Ukraine's lack of ammunition. What can I say?

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

The US media (and thus the public) actually _must_ be fixated on Ukrainian shortages of ammunition. Otherwise, it's again going to start sending nothing.

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Spike's avatar

Hopefully they stay fixated on that, because that should prevent running into the same ammunition shortage mess again.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Lets hope indeed. Here is to lazy journalists with a simple theory!

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Vadim's avatar

Ukraine have lost at least one war to Russia already because of ammunition shortage (in 1920). We don't want it to happen again.

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MrAnderson's avatar

Thank you for your report and the time and energy you put into it and into reading and answering comments.

I am surprised I was naïve enough to be upset about that BBC article reporting about "no defense line on the border"...

I suppose I was just worried and too hungry for information about that new "offesinve". When I read your report, I find perfectly logical that the ZSU would have left sort of a buffer zone to, well, be able to relatively safely build those defenses (as you said).

Meanwhile BBC&co are portraying the ZSU as incompetent to the public.

Like "what the bloody hell have those silly ukrainians been up to?!"

Another token of the mainstream media total absence of reason and care for the consequences of their reporting.

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Martin Belderson's avatar

Eagerness for news is a trap that's hard to avoid. We all have to remember that the vast majority of reporters have zero military experience, are vulnerable to information warfare, plus hand-wringing in general, and, let's face it, panic. They are well-meaning (mostly) but not the kind of people you'd want to have your back in any kind of difficulty.

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Spike's avatar

The majority of media reporters are people that are left leaning, socialist leaning and all that comes with it (military and police are all bad fascists, more open boarder, education will solve everything, religion is bad and so forth).

For those propagating the EU is the reason there was peace in Europe for so long this is a catastrophe. There dogma collapsed. Things that were written into history books to never come out there again are currently on our doorstep and Putin's troops are revaging like the Mongol hordes, where they can.

That is just nothing that anybody in the media wants to write about, talk about and even read about. That's the reason we are reading Tom's blog ;)

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Well, as one of those reading Toms blog I am rather left leaning myself. And I am not happy with the reporting. But yes journalists are leftleaning. But first and foremost I think they are often a little lazy, stuck working in their old ways etc. I agree a lot of dogma were shattered, but I am not sure it was only the left wing dogma. The «Wandel durch handel» dogma of the Germans was not a leftwing dogma. And its not left wing bankers, business people and so on that helps breaking sanctions either. So as a left winger I acknowledge we underestimated the violence and greed and corruption of Putin and Russia, but we were helped by the right wingers here.

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Spike's avatar

I consider myself neither left nor right. This is a luxury these days, but one that doesn't allow reality to surprise you all the time.

If you look at the right wing here in Austria, they are running the same shit story for 30+ years now. Be nice to Russia for cheap gas, we are neutral, the best was the Cold war because our boarders were protected, we are for self determiniation through populist vote and bla bla bla.

They have there same storyline or call it bubble or call it propaganda that they are running through as the left side does. To my mind this left/right divide is an agenda to keep yourself from thinking an run with the herd.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

I agree on all the problems facing journalists. But. I am a total amateur in this, relying solely on blogs. It is actually quite possible for a journalist to read various blogs, to check out Osint slites reporting on losses, and even think a little. They should be able to report better. As for not constructing defenselines on the border, that should not take much thinking to understand. So I think the journalists are doing a poor job. They dont get the right sources, they dont do their homework and they dont think. They go for the easy way. Interviewing an Expert or two, the more sensationalist the better.

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Martin Belderson's avatar

You summarised the problem perfectly. Twenty years ago, it would have been difficult. It’s not anymore.

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J Lovac's avatar

I enjoy reading your detailed reports and analysis having spent 4 years in Ukraine from April 2014. Why do you think the western media (NYT in particular) are usually reporting Russian “successes” and Ukrainian “failures”

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Martin Belderson's avatar

Kuddling. Nice.

You mention the oddity of deploying Spetsnaz on the front line as infantry. It's something Russia has had to do again and again since everything went disastrously wrong in 2022. I use that fact as an example of just how desperate they are in reality to people who fall for Russian disinfo. If they're winning, why are they throwing their elite forces into the meat grinder?

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Spike's avatar

Because they are Russians, and therefore they have infinite manpower, also Spetsnaz and everything.

Believe in Wehrmachts Generals propaganda for god's sake. Why would this geniuses have lost the war otherwise. The sole reason why books like "Lost Victories" from Manstein exist and that shit got fed into history channels without reflecting.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

x2

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Baxter Wilson's avatar

Great write up- thank you for your efforts!!

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MihaiB's avatar

The Russian attacks in Harkiv are a shaping operation without strategic goals. There are 30-50k Russians în the area so they can not conquer Harkiv city. The point of attack is too far away from Kupiansk in drone country and no tank or truck could survive the ride to Oskil river.

The Russians want to increase the frontline and keep the Ukrainian reserves engaged. The Ukrainians are not thrilled about another 100 km of frontline to waste artillery shells and infantry.

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Marmot's avatar

Same for Russians - wider frontline means less troops in other parts.

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MihaiB's avatar

That's true. I don't know the number of available soldiers for each side. Still Russia has more tanks, airplanes and ammunitions compared to Ukraine. They can extend the frontline to increase attrition even if not attaing teritorial gains.

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Alessandro Tinivelli's avatar

Oh well I am very sorry (hirony) for the many putin's Italian supporters that encircled me

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Tom's avatar

The more I read about this offensive, the more I'm convinced that the famous Tucker C interview (plus the general Kremlin propaganda) gave us a pretty clear picture of what was their general "strategic understanding" when entering this campaign season:

-everything is controlled by Americans,

-anyone else (Ukrainians, Europeans, etc) are puppets or hive mind drones,

-by failing at the summer offensive, Ukrainians show that they also cannot defend,

-Americans are weak and about to elect Trump,

-we strong Russians managed to outlast American will to fight,

-therefore Ukraine is a house of cards about to fall.

Well, yet another example that 1) you shouldn't drink your own propaganda and 2) building military strategy on racism and stupid conspiracy theories is a dangerous enterprise. Obviously no current world leader will learn any of these leasons.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Nice summary of the Russian strategy. I think those points also is believed by a lot of otherwise wellmeaning people in the West who then turns around and says that Ukraine must do a «land for peace deal now».

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Andrew Tanner's avatar

You have confirmation that 115 MB was pulled from the Avdiivka front? I thought they were regrouping around Kalynove. But Ukraine is moving a lot of units around.

Concur that the target of this new offensive is the rear of the forces defending Kupiansk. Putin can't stand having lost ground anywhere. Thank goodness the orcs strategize about like a '90s RTS AI...

Though Biden/Sullivan/Blinken/Burns have also been playing Command & Conquer: Ukraine this whole time. I think we're at mission 9, and at the rate they're going Ukraine will finally unlock Ion Cannon strikes in 2027, about the time China is bogged down in Taiwan.

Anyway, ain't it great watching the US media act like this was a surprise attack and evidence that russia strong? Team Biden is pulling out all stops leaning on allied media to portray the war as done and won. Though BBC hasn't been a lot better.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Yup.

And cool commentary/parallels to the WWII you've posted today.

(https://roguesystemsrecon.substack.com/p/the-kharkiv-push-putins-last-big)

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Andrew Tanner's avatar

Thanks!

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Lucian's avatar

All these glide bomb flight missions must be totalling up some serious airframe hours.

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Nick Fotis's avatar

As long as the job is done... Sukhois are expendables (of course, not as much as T-62s, but still)

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Thank you for the summary, as always an interesting read. Regarding glide bombs, Ukraine has attacked some airbases, now including Belbek as well as targetting Novorosskia for fleet operations. Have these attacks had any effect? Not necessarily those done now, but over the last month.

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Vadim's avatar

Unfortunately, there were no Su-34 destroyed in these attacks, as far as I know.

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Elena's avatar

I have just read your large article and consider it to be a very optimistic one. I hope it will be translated and published by Ukrainian media as soon as possible. thank you for your work.

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Gary Behrens's avatar

Thanks for these reports Tom

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