I mean, even Oryx which is extremely pro-Ukrainian claims 86 Ukrainian aircraft and 46 helicopters destroyed, damaged or captured, and they also base their claims on video and photo evidence…
Great article as always thank you. I remember Thomas Theiner, an Italian military analyst also mentioned that 76mm AD system as a good option. I know here in the US we have similar programs under Northrop Gruman called Canon Based AD ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmMarbPOLWw ). Its a very smart idea really considering how prevalent drones are. Maybe this is something worth developing in a cheaper model on the truck as you've suggested once Ukraine gets the funding from seizing Russian asset interest income.
"like 22 stored Il-76s, captured at Melitopol IAP, on 25 February 2022, or some 20 helicopters captured at Chornobaivka/Kherson IAP, on 27 February 2022)." This part is quite shocking. Why werent these moved to much deeper areas in the rear before feb 22nd? I have had a Ukrainian tell me that Zelensky didnt do a good job fully preparing the country for the war and didnt take US intel seriously. I had always thought he did and the UA military was mobilizing for months to fill its territorial defence brigades etc and mobilizing, but its been quite a shocker for me to learn in the past few months they havent even mobilized below 25 and its been mainly the old men fighting. You know our story in Uganda quite well. A large amount of the Baganda children and men were guerrilla fighters in the 80s. From even 9 years up to WW2 veterans from Burma all had to fight in some way, thats what broke the UNLA's back. Even when you consider that Ukraine hasnt received enough supplies they should have mobilized people into all kinds of support roles and made it at least mandatory to rotate them in support tasks be it manufacturing drones, operating drones, cooking, data analytics, etc. But this is just my view. But seems the rest of the country may get somewhat detached from the fact there is a war going on .
On the other hand the EW article is a great read despite needing translation.
Whoever is mobilized cannot be demobilized during the war. As the result, the army is already full of combat-unfit men which are assigned to combat units and end up in the reserve, making the reserves unfit for rotation into combat https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/05/8/7454705/ This probably results from the loose medical rules for combat fitness. However, if they make the doctors really check for fitness, there will hardly be any men in their 40s and 50s fit for combat to mobilize.
Just in. 150 thousand Ukrainians have registered in the Reserve+ application.
The Ministry of Defense adds that hundreds of thousands of requests are in the queue for authorization.
The department explains that the authorization function may not work for everyone at the same time, this is due to the protection of the application.💙💛🇺🇦
Sadly, body armor weights 10-20 kg. An assault rifle is another 10 kg. While disc protrusions are prevalent after 30 y.o. Post-industrial population is not that healthy - running with extra 30 kg will not end well.
Unfortunately, it is what it is, a terrible real war. One million men are fighting, some other 300k are probably casualties. I can't believe thoough that the rest of Ukrainian men are medically unfit, and if they were physically unfit, that can be solved with a few months of training. I know it's complicated; I am not in your shoes, and for sure nobody wants to die in any case. But when a vast majority would rather run to other countries, it could be that Russia has achieved its goal, to break the will of the Ukrainian people :(
I'm living in west part of Ukraine, and all people who willingly agreed go to fight already went back in 2022, the rest tries to avoid mobilization at all cost. There no positive motivation enough to go to die 1000km from home, and negative motivation doesn't work, because when you choosing, from inside your comforting quite home in Lviv with war nowhere to be seen outside, between 500$ fine and chance to die or be heavily wounded and left without any support, the choice is pretty obvious. And you can say that then your country will be conquered by russia and you will be forced to fight war on their side, but most will take a change to flee into Poland or somewhere if thing become too grim. So only people who mobilized now here are one who are unlucky enough to be kidnapped on the streets by territorial center of assembly, and those are thinking more about how to desert and not to be good soldier. So what I'm trying to say, that mobilization efforts are already fucked here...
Keep cool. The reality is not what some people here are trying to paint. As of 2023, the defense forces of Ukraine have 1 million soldiers, with 800,000 serving directly in the armed forces, Umerov said during the Yalta European Strategy Conference in Kyiv in September. The mobilization strategies the forces and the government employ are efficient and modern. Ukraine needs motivated men and women and no cannon fodder.
So Ukraine has 800.000 man, Russia 600.000, but Ukraine still needs another half a million man despite lossing “only” 31.000 killed after two years of full scale war while at the same time Russia lost almost half a million man (according to Ukraine ofcourse)… is that what you are trying to convince yourself?
Just in. 150 thousand Ukrainians have registered in the Reserve+ application.
The Ministry of Defense adds that hundreds of thousands of requests are in the queue for authorization. The department explains that the authorization function may not work for everyone at the same time, this is due to the protection of the application.💙💛🇺🇦
I do not know whom you know and hang out with. But it seems that recruting is in full swing. Some technical problems if YOU want to register for 150 thousand Ukrainians have registered in the Reserve+ application. The Ministry of Defense adds that hundreds of thousands of requests are in the queue for authorization. The department explains that the authorization function may not work for everyone at the same time, this is due to the protection of the application.💙💛🇺🇦 So do not worry ; worry if you are a Russian ghost.
Please, take off your pink glasses. People are not "registering" to service, they just update information about where they actually live, with one purpose - to avoid a big fine. To serve - they need to be found, handed in "summon" (povestka), then they should arrive to TTSK (enlistment office), and only then there will be chance to make a serviceman from them. On every of these steps people avoiding enlistment. And will continue to avoid when have the option to pay or to die.
I do not know in what way this contradicts what I wrote ? What you interpret or do not, nobody cares. As of december 2023, one million men and women served. The others "serve" in the industry. This war needs soldiers fighting in the military but you cannot empty the companies ... of working people.
Yes, you have already found your motivation to flee across the border to Poland. And when Poland is attacked, where will you run? Will you find new motivation?
Because no one actually expected Russia to intervene in Ukraine. US "intelligence" just says shit and don't actually know anything. Days they are right is literally just coincidence, broken clock syndrome.
Evacuation of stored Il-76 or helicopters can possibly be very difficult! Stored aircraft need to be made airworthy before you can fly them away, takes skilled technichians, parts, fuel, pilots, planning and time. And most importantly, enough correct forewarning. Then fly them away, to where? Did anyone know exactly where the russians where? In the end it was perhaps a matter of priorities, maybe it was more important to evacuate the SU-24:s before the helikopters. To evacuate everything successfully you need plans, resources and training.
And, re. 'why weren't these moved on time': because they were stored for years already, and thus non-flyable already as of 23 February 2022. And when then the Russians reached Melitopol on the afternoon of 24 February 2022, it was too late to do anything about them.
Similar in the case of Kherson. Lots of helicopters there used to be operated by Ukrainian peace-keeping missions in Africa, for example, And they were flown in Africa more than the rest of the helicopter-fleet of the PSZSU and the ZSU - combined. They were returned to Ukraine and 'stored': parked at Chornobaivka. That was that. The Russians then suddenly appeared at the air base, late on 26 February, and there was no time to overhaul/repair them and make them flyable again.
Stored airplanes and helicopters usually aren't in a flyable condition.
These would need to be repaired (and maybe there weren't spare parts, or these were of Russian origin), or be transported on specialized vehicles, and to go where? There's no warranty about the direction from where some invaders will enter your country.
1. I am following few Osints like Andrea Perpetual. It shows that losses of Russian tanks and IFV are horrible(3-4 times bigger than Ukrainian), but a majority of open sources (video/photo) show Russia is knocking out and damages about 2 times more artillery pieces of Ukraine. In your opinion, what are main causes because I personally think that it is a result of Russian primary use of drones like Lancets as the main approach to contr battery, whereas Ukrainians rely more on shelling, that obviously was in serious deficit last half of year. I've also heard that many Western countries don't allow to post videos from their reconnaissance drones
2. Do Ukrainians use drone-Atacams pair for deep strikes?
Of course, Atacams strikes in Crimea are done with data from NATO and spies, but there was a strike on training polygon near Lugansk about 2 weeks ago, filmed with drone. Russians film their Iskander strikes with drones like Patriot or that storage from post, but do Ukrainians do the same?
1.) The 'problem' is that - for the last three months - the ZSU is not releasing the mass of its videos showing strikes on the Russian artillery. No idea why. They simply do not. What I do know is that the Russian artillery is - literally - massacred en masse. But, one needs contacts to Russians to hear about this.
... result is the impression like 'Russians are killing more Ukrainian artillery than the other way around', while on the battlefield the Russian artillerists meanwhile do not dare shooting their pieces. They are hiding them 1,000-2,000 away, then driving out to shoot a few shells from some other place, and then running away and trying to hide them before getting hit.
2.) Yes. The ZSU has its own version of the Russian RUK concept, but this is functioning slightly differently (and less automatised than the Russian YeTSU or UTMC).
RU side is losing a lot of howitzers as well, but en masse? Could you elaborate on that? UA has no anything similar to Lancet, no airpower to counter guns, Excaliburs got jammed. Thus, only counterbattery fire and, to lesser extent, Himars, which is also getting vulnarable to EW. And since a lot of long range UA SPHs are falling victim to Lancets, what kills RU artillery en masse?
So 10 ATACMS were needed to “properly” hit an AB. Which leads us again to the ongoing discussion whether the current fleet of drones ZSU has is effective against ABs in Russia. Of course, I want to see ZSU being able to hit them but whether it will be of any help….
That's why Ukraine hits airports with ATACMS which employ cluster munitions - these soft-skinned targets (airplanes and helicopters) can be easily damaged and become non flyable by a few cluster bomblets.
Unitary munitions are better for hard targets like a munitions depot, bridges etc.
Considering presumable shortage of Manpads with UA troops, one can only wonder what happened to the thousands of Stingers supplied, to say nothing about Soviet-era Iglas, Polish Groms, British and Swedish manpads, and etc.
Actually, more than 50% of Russian copters were lost to other reasons (destroyed on the airfields, by AAA, Shorads, Buks and even by atmgs Stugna). Have no idea about UAVs, but the figure of several thousand lost is inflated.
"with result that we still get to see something like 15-20 Russian-released videos a day showing these knocking out Ukrainian artillery pieces, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and similar stuff"
Within past week 4 Bohdanas SPH were hit (3 of them destroyed). UA boasts to produce 6 per month. This is for Don to consider as he stated that all UA artillery losses are easily compensated with local production and NATO supllies.
Sorry, Tom. 6 produced per month [if trust UA data) vs
4 destroyed per week. And dozens of Krabs, AS-90s, M109s, 3 axes, old soviet guns being hit each week. Shells are not a problem, but guns are indeed vanishing at scaring rate.
This week is especially spectacular. UA rushed many SPHs and MLRSs to ease the Kharkov case and many were caught on the move. Even one PzH2000 was finally Lanceted yesterday.
Thank you for your reporting (can't say it enough). What is your take on Ukraine pulling it's Abrams off the frontline? Is it simply them realizing that tank(s in general) isn't amazingly effective in defense and keeping it for counter attacks which it is better suited for? Or is it because every single loss of an Abram (and other "oh so mega game changing super weapons" ) is reported with as much noise as if Kyiv had fallen? I guess I mean why the Abrams and not most heavy armor?
What do you think of NATO thinking about directly engaging russian areal targets from Poland and Romania?
There was a report I remember reading that there was a shortage of MPAT rounds for the Abrams, and probably the Leopard 2, leaving them with APFSDS rounds resulting in them having much reduced utility. Killing Russian armour generally hasn’t been a problem for the Ukrainians but particularly while they have had low ammunition stocks killing the Russian personnel quickly enough to not give ground has been.
From what I read, MPAT rounds are actually anti-slow-aircraft rounds. Mainstream media was saying the Abrams was too vulnerable to drones but maybe it is only because it no longer has that efficient counter for drones. Anyway, I hope Ukraine gets more Bradleys soon (in terms of vehicles) as promised. I read about a 100 Bradley delivery being planned but I don't know how reliable that info was. I hope shells and AA weapons find their way to the front sooner.
MPAT is HEAT-MP-T. It’s a multipurpose high fragmentation HEAT round.
Theoretically any tank, if the fire control system, the gun handling(gun elevation, turret tracking rates, etc) can shoot at helicopters, drones etc. The size of the drone would be the biggest issue in hitting it assuming it’s a smaller drone aside from visually acquiring it as a target in the first place. I’ve noticed most ( but not all) of the Ukrainian crew commanders fight closed up, which even with Abrams superior vision systems compared to the Russian equipment, makes acquiring the drone visually next to impossible.
I was just on vacation in Sevastopol for two weeks. Russian children play a game where they pretend they are being bombed by the Ukrainians and shout to each other "нас бомбят, в убежище! — We are being bombed, to the shelter!"
Overall, my trip made me even more astonished that anyone at the Pentagon was stupid enough to think Crimea has any chance of being conquered and ethnically cleansed. 100k Ukrainians killed for a US pipe dream.
Crimea has been ethnically cleansed by the Russians three or four times already. Today we commemorate the 18th of May 1944, you asshole, when the fucking Communists started deporting 200 000 Crimean tatars. That was ONE genocidal act against this nation. You have grown on the muck heap of the Soviet Russian desinformation.
Were you at the Belbek AB for a roast on your vacation? Seeing a bunch of Russians being demoted to a gravestone, or as Tom likes to say being kuddled, sounds like a lot of fun to me. Did you bring any sunflower seeds with you? Hope you enjoyed it.
Hey Tom, will you say smth now, because you supported this guy Isa when he said to me in some previous post “insulting people doesn’t make you smarter nor winner”… and you liked his comment… does the same apply now? 🤔
The fact that the comment section has become lately a cesspool of Russian trolls is in of itself another confirmation that Tom and Don struck a cord somewhere. Especially since that money collection for the Shark. Whenever Moscow starts shoveling shit on something, it means its the right stuff for everybody else .
Thanks Tom, not the best news. We see that UA is short on air defence system and munition. But how it looks with RU. RU had a lot of system, cca 2000. Many were destroyed many are too old. UA didn't attack with so big amount rocket but there are report that RU try to shotdown himars rocket and there there many of them. UA didn't speak about volumes of drones sent to attack and RU claims as many as it looks impossible. We see that RU is running out of tanks or artilerry munitions.. but we don't have any idea how it looks with air defense. We heard only about attack which makes big boom.
The UA officials have recently claimed that they had achieved parity with RU in the production of long-range drones. Thus the "100 UA drones attacking Crimea" once a week is not impossible.
even if USA gave these quite specialized aircraft (which no other country received, as far as I know), these would need protection against the Sukhois and other anti-aircraft systems. So, for a squadron of Prowlers you would need at least two squadrons of F-16 or Gripens to protect them
Been too lazy to log in for ages (but been here every single day to share your invaluable morning facepalms and cappucino spills). Thanks for relaying financial support links, I paypaled a few crumbs to 3rd SSO, 3rd Assault, and 72nd Mech
Quite heavy and expensive, from what I gather. Not much more effective range compared to the Gepard (around 5-6 km against airborne targets). It's essentially a naval gun mounted on a heavy tank chassis (I guess that a wheeled 8x8 platform wouldn't be impossible to use)
Alright, I’ll bite. The 35mm oerlikons typically have an effective range of ~4klicks. Standard round from the oto 76 have an effective range of like 8-10km, on an air target, new rounds extend that to like 40km*. The unit weighs like 8 tons. That’s basically a drop in unit. Modern MBT turrets range from like 17-25 tons. I’m pretty sure we could make it work.
Trouble is, the Ka-52 launches anti-tank missiles from 15+ Kms away.
So, you are required to add missiles like the Sea Sparrow to be able to reach the Ka-52. If you add such capabilities to your OTO Melara system, you have to add some tonnes and fire control and integration etc
Well, let the battle-proven Gepard and equivalent systems shoot down these pesky drones. Their 35mm rounds are more than enough to destroy everything flying at a 4 km radius. You need rockets trying to hit a helicopter flying at 10+ km away (something like the Sea Sparrow, if we speak about western equipment). These Ka-52 were a big pain in the back side of Ukraine troops in 2023, and I suppose these still are a problem.
A 35mm round costs around 30 USD or so, from what I can see. A 76mm round seems to start at around 1.500 USD (if you want more advanced rounds, with proximity fuzes etc., you can easily double the price). So, you can shoot almost a hundred 35mm rounds before approaching the operating costs (and weight) of a 76mm cannon.
Since I mentioned weight, a 35mm round weight approximately 1.6 kg, while the plain 76mm round weights 12.5kg. And let's not start discussing system weight and complexity. What I want to stress is, doubling the diameter of a round raises the cost exponentially, not linearly.
Your point looks legit and logical, but it kind of counters Tom's point about using 76mm to counter recon drones. Unless the issue is that recon drones operate out of 35mm range.
That photo with the 3-4 KABs detonating in synchrony is quite terrifying. A quartet of 1-2 tonnes gliding bombs can demolish 4+ houses in one shot.
It makes you wonder, how can humans stay put over there and continue defending the area?
Unless Ukraine can fight this menace, the Russians will continue having an upper hand when assaulting. And no, the F-16s don't have enough long range missiles to hit these Sukhois (except if they manage to achieve tactical surprise, eg. by using Link-16 and combat awareness from third party sensors and approach silently)
And where does this “1000% conformation” comes from regarding Rus and Ukr losses?
Video or photo evidence
I mean, even Oryx which is extremely pro-Ukrainian claims 86 Ukrainian aircraft and 46 helicopters destroyed, damaged or captured, and they also base their claims on video and photo evidence…
Oryx: 104 aircrafts destroyed, 105 helicopters destroyed
Ukraine or Russia?
Russian losses.
How about you going through Oryx list before asking what are actually dumb questions?
Pulled it out of my small finger, as usually.
Why do you ask?
Great article as always thank you. I remember Thomas Theiner, an Italian military analyst also mentioned that 76mm AD system as a good option. I know here in the US we have similar programs under Northrop Gruman called Canon Based AD ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmMarbPOLWw ). Its a very smart idea really considering how prevalent drones are. Maybe this is something worth developing in a cheaper model on the truck as you've suggested once Ukraine gets the funding from seizing Russian asset interest income.
"like 22 stored Il-76s, captured at Melitopol IAP, on 25 February 2022, or some 20 helicopters captured at Chornobaivka/Kherson IAP, on 27 February 2022)." This part is quite shocking. Why werent these moved to much deeper areas in the rear before feb 22nd? I have had a Ukrainian tell me that Zelensky didnt do a good job fully preparing the country for the war and didnt take US intel seriously. I had always thought he did and the UA military was mobilizing for months to fill its territorial defence brigades etc and mobilizing, but its been quite a shocker for me to learn in the past few months they havent even mobilized below 25 and its been mainly the old men fighting. You know our story in Uganda quite well. A large amount of the Baganda children and men were guerrilla fighters in the 80s. From even 9 years up to WW2 veterans from Burma all had to fight in some way, thats what broke the UNLA's back. Even when you consider that Ukraine hasnt received enough supplies they should have mobilized people into all kinds of support roles and made it at least mandatory to rotate them in support tasks be it manufacturing drones, operating drones, cooking, data analytics, etc. But this is just my view. But seems the rest of the country may get somewhat detached from the fact there is a war going on .
On the other hand the EW article is a great read despite needing translation.
Zelenski just ignored the war to free money for his political agenda. That's why he was shit scared when the Russians came.
Ukraine is very short on young adults - the birth rate in 1990s was very low because of the poverty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_population_pyramid_2024_UN.png
Whoever is mobilized cannot be demobilized during the war. As the result, the army is already full of combat-unfit men which are assigned to combat units and end up in the reserve, making the reserves unfit for rotation into combat https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/05/8/7454705/ This probably results from the loose medical rules for combat fitness. However, if they make the doctors really check for fitness, there will hardly be any men in their 40s and 50s fit for combat to mobilize.
Just in. 150 thousand Ukrainians have registered in the Reserve+ application.
The Ministry of Defense adds that hundreds of thousands of requests are in the queue for authorization.
The department explains that the authorization function may not work for everyone at the same time, this is due to the protection of the application.💙💛🇺🇦
I see clearly a tricky situation, thank you for the response
I am afraid that in a war lasting for so long and with such intensity, one cannot count only on the fittest men (and women).
Sadly, body armor weights 10-20 kg. An assault rifle is another 10 kg. While disc protrusions are prevalent after 30 y.o. Post-industrial population is not that healthy - running with extra 30 kg will not end well.
Unfortunately, it is what it is, a terrible real war. One million men are fighting, some other 300k are probably casualties. I can't believe thoough that the rest of Ukrainian men are medically unfit, and if they were physically unfit, that can be solved with a few months of training. I know it's complicated; I am not in your shoes, and for sure nobody wants to die in any case. But when a vast majority would rather run to other countries, it could be that Russia has achieved its goal, to break the will of the Ukrainian people :(
I'm living in west part of Ukraine, and all people who willingly agreed go to fight already went back in 2022, the rest tries to avoid mobilization at all cost. There no positive motivation enough to go to die 1000km from home, and negative motivation doesn't work, because when you choosing, from inside your comforting quite home in Lviv with war nowhere to be seen outside, between 500$ fine and chance to die or be heavily wounded and left without any support, the choice is pretty obvious. And you can say that then your country will be conquered by russia and you will be forced to fight war on their side, but most will take a change to flee into Poland or somewhere if thing become too grim. So only people who mobilized now here are one who are unlucky enough to be kidnapped on the streets by territorial center of assembly, and those are thinking more about how to desert and not to be good soldier. So what I'm trying to say, that mobilization efforts are already fucked here...
The war is lost then.
Keep cool. The reality is not what some people here are trying to paint. As of 2023, the defense forces of Ukraine have 1 million soldiers, with 800,000 serving directly in the armed forces, Umerov said during the Yalta European Strategy Conference in Kyiv in September. The mobilization strategies the forces and the government employ are efficient and modern. Ukraine needs motivated men and women and no cannon fodder.
😂😂😂
So Ukraine has 800.000 man, Russia 600.000, but Ukraine still needs another half a million man despite lossing “only” 31.000 killed after two years of full scale war while at the same time Russia lost almost half a million man (according to Ukraine ofcourse)… is that what you are trying to convince yourself?
Yes exactly, Russia lost 10 million soldiers and Ukraine only lost 12, that's why they need another 500 thousand men and $200 billion in vehicles 🤡
Just in. 150 thousand Ukrainians have registered in the Reserve+ application.
The Ministry of Defense adds that hundreds of thousands of requests are in the queue for authorization. The department explains that the authorization function may not work for everyone at the same time, this is due to the protection of the application.💙💛🇺🇦
I do not know whom you know and hang out with. But it seems that recruting is in full swing. Some technical problems if YOU want to register for 150 thousand Ukrainians have registered in the Reserve+ application. The Ministry of Defense adds that hundreds of thousands of requests are in the queue for authorization. The department explains that the authorization function may not work for everyone at the same time, this is due to the protection of the application.💙💛🇺🇦 So do not worry ; worry if you are a Russian ghost.
Please, take off your pink glasses. People are not "registering" to service, they just update information about where they actually live, with one purpose - to avoid a big fine. To serve - they need to be found, handed in "summon" (povestka), then they should arrive to TTSK (enlistment office), and only then there will be chance to make a serviceman from them. On every of these steps people avoiding enlistment. And will continue to avoid when have the option to pay or to die.
I do not know in what way this contradicts what I wrote ? What you interpret or do not, nobody cares. As of december 2023, one million men and women served. The others "serve" in the industry. This war needs soldiers fighting in the military but you cannot empty the companies ... of working people.
Yes, you have already found your motivation to flee across the border to Poland. And when Poland is attacked, where will you run? Will you find new motivation?
Because no one actually expected Russia to intervene in Ukraine. US "intelligence" just says shit and don't actually know anything. Days they are right is literally just coincidence, broken clock syndrome.
Hindsight is a very good thing…
Evacuation of stored Il-76 or helicopters can possibly be very difficult! Stored aircraft need to be made airworthy before you can fly them away, takes skilled technichians, parts, fuel, pilots, planning and time. And most importantly, enough correct forewarning. Then fly them away, to where? Did anyone know exactly where the russians where? In the end it was perhaps a matter of priorities, maybe it was more important to evacuate the SU-24:s before the helikopters. To evacuate everything successfully you need plans, resources and training.
you bring up very good points thank you.
Yup.
And, re. 'why weren't these moved on time': because they were stored for years already, and thus non-flyable already as of 23 February 2022. And when then the Russians reached Melitopol on the afternoon of 24 February 2022, it was too late to do anything about them.
Similar in the case of Kherson. Lots of helicopters there used to be operated by Ukrainian peace-keeping missions in Africa, for example, And they were flown in Africa more than the rest of the helicopter-fleet of the PSZSU and the ZSU - combined. They were returned to Ukraine and 'stored': parked at Chornobaivka. That was that. The Russians then suddenly appeared at the air base, late on 26 February, and there was no time to overhaul/repair them and make them flyable again.
I see, very tough situation. Thank you
Stored airplanes and helicopters usually aren't in a flyable condition.
These would need to be repaired (and maybe there weren't spare parts, or these were of Russian origin), or be transported on specialized vehicles, and to go where? There's no warranty about the direction from where some invaders will enter your country.
Thank for report. A few questions:
1. I am following few Osints like Andrea Perpetual. It shows that losses of Russian tanks and IFV are horrible(3-4 times bigger than Ukrainian), but a majority of open sources (video/photo) show Russia is knocking out and damages about 2 times more artillery pieces of Ukraine. In your opinion, what are main causes because I personally think that it is a result of Russian primary use of drones like Lancets as the main approach to contr battery, whereas Ukrainians rely more on shelling, that obviously was in serious deficit last half of year. I've also heard that many Western countries don't allow to post videos from their reconnaissance drones
2. Do Ukrainians use drone-Atacams pair for deep strikes?
ATACMS targeting intel is not from Ukrainian drones, it is very likely done with US/NATO provided data, humint and comercial sat imagery.
Of course, Atacams strikes in Crimea are done with data from NATO and spies, but there was a strike on training polygon near Lugansk about 2 weeks ago, filmed with drone. Russians film their Iskander strikes with drones like Patriot or that storage from post, but do Ukrainians do the same?
I saw that video, my guess is that is the exception rather than the rule for Ukr. On the other hand most GMLRS strikes targets are provided by drones.
1.) The 'problem' is that - for the last three months - the ZSU is not releasing the mass of its videos showing strikes on the Russian artillery. No idea why. They simply do not. What I do know is that the Russian artillery is - literally - massacred en masse. But, one needs contacts to Russians to hear about this.
... result is the impression like 'Russians are killing more Ukrainian artillery than the other way around', while on the battlefield the Russian artillerists meanwhile do not dare shooting their pieces. They are hiding them 1,000-2,000 away, then driving out to shoot a few shells from some other place, and then running away and trying to hide them before getting hit.
2.) Yes. The ZSU has its own version of the Russian RUK concept, but this is functioning slightly differently (and less automatised than the Russian YeTSU or UTMC).
RU side is losing a lot of howitzers as well, but en masse? Could you elaborate on that? UA has no anything similar to Lancet, no airpower to counter guns, Excaliburs got jammed. Thus, only counterbattery fire and, to lesser extent, Himars, which is also getting vulnarable to EW. And since a lot of long range UA SPHs are falling victim to Lancets, what kills RU artillery en masse?
Ask your artillerists about their opinion about Caesars - and why are they spending 99% of their time with hiding instead of shooting.
Thanks Tom!
So 10 ATACMS were needed to “properly” hit an AB. Which leads us again to the ongoing discussion whether the current fleet of drones ZSU has is effective against ABs in Russia. Of course, I want to see ZSU being able to hit them but whether it will be of any help….
At least, yes. Mind that a single hit by an ATACMS is comparable to the hit of a 1000kg bomb (i.e. 2000lbs bomb, like Mk.84).
One can't knock out an entire air base by a single 1000kg bomb. Only the Russians were dumb enough to think they can do so, early in this war.
That's why Ukraine hits airports with ATACMS which employ cluster munitions - these soft-skinned targets (airplanes and helicopters) can be easily damaged and become non flyable by a few cluster bomblets.
Unitary munitions are better for hard targets like a munitions depot, bridges etc.
Considering presumable shortage of Manpads with UA troops, one can only wonder what happened to the thousands of Stingers supplied, to say nothing about Soviet-era Iglas, Polish Groms, British and Swedish manpads, and etc.
Are you on the payroll of the FSB or for an idea?
They've been used.
The fighting has been going on for two years and three months on a +500km front.
War is not a video game where you can just re-up your ammo. Russian trolls are so dumb.
Spent. Between others to shot down 100+ Russian helicopters and several thousands of UAVs.
Actually, more than 50% of Russian copters were lost to other reasons (destroyed on the airfields, by AAA, Shorads, Buks and even by atmgs Stugna). Have no idea about UAVs, but the figure of several thousand lost is inflated.
Kind of happy to see you're - once again - (not) basing your assessments on reliable cross-examination of every single case.
"with result that we still get to see something like 15-20 Russian-released videos a day showing these knocking out Ukrainian artillery pieces, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and similar stuff"
Within past week 4 Bohdanas SPH were hit (3 of them destroyed). UA boasts to produce 6 per month. This is for Don to consider as he stated that all UA artillery losses are easily compensated with local production and NATO supllies.
So, because Ukrainians are manufacturing more Bohdanas than the Russians have killed, Don is wrong....?
Sorry, Tom. 6 produced per month [if trust UA data) vs
4 destroyed per week. And dozens of Krabs, AS-90s, M109s, 3 axes, old soviet guns being hit each week. Shells are not a problem, but guns are indeed vanishing at scaring rate.
This week is especially spectacular. UA rushed many SPHs and MLRSs to ease the Kharkov case and many were caught on the move. Even one PzH2000 was finally Lanceted yesterday.
🤦
Thank you for your reporting (can't say it enough). What is your take on Ukraine pulling it's Abrams off the frontline? Is it simply them realizing that tank(s in general) isn't amazingly effective in defense and keeping it for counter attacks which it is better suited for? Or is it because every single loss of an Abram (and other "oh so mega game changing super weapons" ) is reported with as much noise as if Kyiv had fallen? I guess I mean why the Abrams and not most heavy armor?
What do you think of NATO thinking about directly engaging russian areal targets from Poland and Romania?
There was a report I remember reading that there was a shortage of MPAT rounds for the Abrams, and probably the Leopard 2, leaving them with APFSDS rounds resulting in them having much reduced utility. Killing Russian armour generally hasn’t been a problem for the Ukrainians but particularly while they have had low ammunition stocks killing the Russian personnel quickly enough to not give ground has been.
That makes sense!
From what I read, MPAT rounds are actually anti-slow-aircraft rounds. Mainstream media was saying the Abrams was too vulnerable to drones but maybe it is only because it no longer has that efficient counter for drones. Anyway, I hope Ukraine gets more Bradleys soon (in terms of vehicles) as promised. I read about a 100 Bradley delivery being planned but I don't know how reliable that info was. I hope shells and AA weapons find their way to the front sooner.
There is quite a difference between a helicopter flying at 150 km/h and a FPV drone flying at 150 km/h.
Well from what I know, they're meant for both? Altgough I doubt they'd use that many for drones...
MPAT is HEAT-MP-T. It’s a multipurpose high fragmentation HEAT round.
Theoretically any tank, if the fire control system, the gun handling(gun elevation, turret tracking rates, etc) can shoot at helicopters, drones etc. The size of the drone would be the biggest issue in hitting it assuming it’s a smaller drone aside from visually acquiring it as a target in the first place. I’ve noticed most ( but not all) of the Ukrainian crew commanders fight closed up, which even with Abrams superior vision systems compared to the Russian equipment, makes acquiring the drone visually next to impossible.
M1 are meanwhile back in combat. Is a co-reason why 1 or 2 have been lost, the last week.
Principal reason was the lack of HE ammo for 120mm gun.
Secondary the tank's vulnerability to attack drones.
I was just on vacation in Sevastopol for two weeks. Russian children play a game where they pretend they are being bombed by the Ukrainians and shout to each other "нас бомбят, в убежище! — We are being bombed, to the shelter!"
Overall, my trip made me even more astonished that anyone at the Pentagon was stupid enough to think Crimea has any chance of being conquered and ethnically cleansed. 100k Ukrainians killed for a US pipe dream.
Crimea has been ethnically cleansed by the Russians three or four times already. Today we commemorate the 18th of May 1944, you asshole, when the fucking Communists started deporting 200 000 Crimean tatars. That was ONE genocidal act against this nation. You have grown on the muck heap of the Soviet Russian desinformation.
I second the “you asshole” part.
It does not make what I said less true🤷♂️
Were you at the Belbek AB for a roast on your vacation? Seeing a bunch of Russians being demoted to a gravestone, or as Tom likes to say being kuddled, sounds like a lot of fun to me. Did you bring any sunflower seeds with you? Hope you enjoyed it.
Hey Tom, will you say smth now, because you supported this guy Isa when he said to me in some previous post “insulting people doesn’t make you smarter nor winner”… and you liked his comment… does the same apply now? 🤔
And we'll pop a bottle when you end up like russell bentley, you effin traitor.
Cope
Today is actually the Memory Day of that crime
The fact that the comment section has become lately a cesspool of Russian trolls is in of itself another confirmation that Tom and Don struck a cord somewhere. Especially since that money collection for the Shark. Whenever Moscow starts shoveling shit on something, it means its the right stuff for everybody else .
Call if disinformation or whatever but I was in fact just in Crimea and have the receipts😬 https://readingjunkie.com/2024/05/11/my-trip-to-crimea-in-photos/
....and there is medicine for online bitches, too. Now you can try that somewhere else.
Ty Tom for the article.
Thanks Tom, not the best news. We see that UA is short on air defence system and munition. But how it looks with RU. RU had a lot of system, cca 2000. Many were destroyed many are too old. UA didn't attack with so big amount rocket but there are report that RU try to shotdown himars rocket and there there many of them. UA didn't speak about volumes of drones sent to attack and RU claims as many as it looks impossible. We see that RU is running out of tanks or artilerry munitions.. but we don't have any idea how it looks with air defense. We heard only about attack which makes big boom.
The UA officials have recently claimed that they had achieved parity with RU in the production of long-range drones. Thus the "100 UA drones attacking Crimea" once a week is not impossible.
Good stuff as always. I do have to wonder about how much help a squadron of Prowlers would be in this war.
even if USA gave these quite specialized aircraft (which no other country received, as far as I know), these would need protection against the Sukhois and other anti-aircraft systems. So, for a squadron of Prowlers you would need at least two squadrons of F-16 or Gripens to protect them
Been too lazy to log in for ages (but been here every single day to share your invaluable morning facepalms and cappucino spills). Thanks for relaying financial support links, I paypaled a few crumbs to 3rd SSO, 3rd Assault, and 72nd Mech
Thanks Tom,
Seems like thinks are going to change a little, just wonder if there is a ban to shoot over the border
Could you or anyone with relevant knowledge confirm the time of shell hunger is over for a while?
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortage/
Thank you for doing the job! 💙💛
Man if the Russo Ukrainian war is the event that finally causes the Otomatic to enter production, we are definitely in a weird ass timeline.
Quite heavy and expensive, from what I gather. Not much more effective range compared to the Gepard (around 5-6 km against airborne targets). It's essentially a naval gun mounted on a heavy tank chassis (I guess that a wheeled 8x8 platform wouldn't be impossible to use)
Alright, I’ll bite. The 35mm oerlikons typically have an effective range of ~4klicks. Standard round from the oto 76 have an effective range of like 8-10km, on an air target, new rounds extend that to like 40km*. The unit weighs like 8 tons. That’s basically a drop in unit. Modern MBT turrets range from like 17-25 tons. I’m pretty sure we could make it work.
Trouble is, the Ka-52 launches anti-tank missiles from 15+ Kms away.
So, you are required to add missiles like the Sea Sparrow to be able to reach the Ka-52. If you add such capabilities to your OTO Melara system, you have to add some tonnes and fire control and integration etc
It is not for shooting Ka-52, it is for shooting recon drones. Cover more area and use less shells than Gepard do
Well, let the battle-proven Gepard and equivalent systems shoot down these pesky drones. Their 35mm rounds are more than enough to destroy everything flying at a 4 km radius. You need rockets trying to hit a helicopter flying at 10+ km away (something like the Sea Sparrow, if we speak about western equipment). These Ka-52 were a big pain in the back side of Ukraine troops in 2023, and I suppose these still are a problem.
A 35mm round costs around 30 USD or so, from what I can see. A 76mm round seems to start at around 1.500 USD (if you want more advanced rounds, with proximity fuzes etc., you can easily double the price). So, you can shoot almost a hundred 35mm rounds before approaching the operating costs (and weight) of a 76mm cannon.
Since I mentioned weight, a 35mm round weight approximately 1.6 kg, while the plain 76mm round weights 12.5kg. And let's not start discussing system weight and complexity. What I want to stress is, doubling the diameter of a round raises the cost exponentially, not linearly.
Your point looks legit and logical, but it kind of counters Tom's point about using 76mm to counter recon drones. Unless the issue is that recon drones operate out of 35mm range.
That photo with the 3-4 KABs detonating in synchrony is quite terrifying. A quartet of 1-2 tonnes gliding bombs can demolish 4+ houses in one shot.
It makes you wonder, how can humans stay put over there and continue defending the area?
Unless Ukraine can fight this menace, the Russians will continue having an upper hand when assaulting. And no, the F-16s don't have enough long range missiles to hit these Sukhois (except if they manage to achieve tactical surprise, eg. by using Link-16 and combat awareness from third party sensors and approach silently)