Thank you, Tom. --- Why do not the Ukrainian target the Kerch bridge once and for all ? To push the Russian government into a crisis ? And then use the panic and push forward ? Is it not yet the time ? --- If you continue with only bad news, I will need three capuccinos in the morning :( Are there then no more Ukrainian forces on the left bank if Krynky is lost ?
There is a school of thought (published by a Ukrainian news service) that the Kerch bridge is serving as bait for Russian air defence systems, and that's why we regularly hear about successful strikes on air defence equipment in Crimea. Every destroyed system gets replaced there because of the symbolic importance of the bridge.
The strategic importance of the bridge has probably lessened in the short term because the Russians may have finally established rail service to Crimea via the Ukrainian mainland.
The bridge is a huge and massive structure that would take a lot of firepower to bring down permanently even if it weren't this heavily defended. If the Russians, fearful of a strike, aren't using it to move supplies anyway, it doesn't make sense to waste missiles in limited supply to collapse maybe a span or two.
Thanks for the update. The loss at Dnipro is sad, But the usefulness was probably limited. However it is, apart from the North, yet another styring of slow and small defekts. The question is of course whether the total costs of winning these small gains is too big in the long run. Even if Putin doesnt care about the loss of life he still needs to replace them.
This is a attitional war and russians have taken this seriously, as Ukraine is still trying to get PR and "morale wins". The west as a common is now starting to think about the kind of war it is, but thinking in a "Cold War 2" mindset and waiting to the US elections to set a path.
It's like watching a train go half speed over a unfinished bridge over a Big river 200 metres down, and all the employees on the train are looking to their cellphones and making fun as they aproach the end if the railine of a chart that is taken by a donkey wich is advancing with difficulty down in the Valley and slowly triyng to cross the river on foot, with the water at the chest and the chart soaked. But it seems the donkey will Cross and the train... Well, the rail line is unfinished...
Cool analogies, but remember that Ukraine is not one entity and while some people are looking for PR wins others know exactly what kind of war this is. I wish there weren't stupid things to point to, but don't mistake it for all there is.
Second, third, and fourth this sentiment. 20% of any organization will, statistically speaking, under-perform. On average, though, Ukraine's system works better than the enemy's. There will be disasters. Big wins are coming too.
Thousands of pieces are moving, and the bosses at the top aren't the ones running the show. They try, but natural laws prevail.
Ru MoD regularly reports destruction of command posts full of NATO generals too....Konashenko's disciples probably cant distinguish between an FH-70 or TRF-1 and M198. Besides, how do you expect BAE to make millions out of this if the US delivered sturdy out of production M198 instead of the delicate M777?
Thank goodness they got out of Krynky finally. Marine ops are excellent, but they have to take the form of raids. Defending a narrow beachhead for months defeats the purpose. Much better to make the orcs rush reserves around trying to guess where the next raid will come.
People have got to realize that the scale of operations has to shift. More smaller operations are now better than a few big ones. The enemy must constantly have sand thrown into their eyes. Especially when, like the ruscist side, they have a systemic problem with sharing info.
Sadly, a clock is now ticking on US support for anyone. Vance is the real FSB asset, not Trump.
That’s a mess, if true. Granted it looks like they decimated the better part of an orc division (10k casualties, maybe), but the exchange is still much too high for a glorified raid.
Not much point in trying ops like that if they can’t be adequately supported.
There are XY- (enter the number of your preference) of people warning about Ukrainian commanders that can't care less for the lives of their troops - and that since 2014, at least.
....and it's only now that either Syrsky or Zelensky began removing such commanders. Thus, a lot left to be done in this regards.
Fortunately most brigades are now too big to operate as a coherent formation, so brigade level commanders are almost functionaries now. The lower down the chain you go, the younger and less Soviet the leadership gets.
This is why I push for expanding the 12-20 best brigades into semi-divisions, each with several independent battlegroups about 2 battalions in size. Mass must be thought of in terms of firepower, not personnel. Everything important on the front line going forward will be done by small combined arms company-level groupings working in tandem, often across broad fronts.
The good news is that the older generation of leaders need to take a less and less active approach. Especially as brigades build out their own recruitment and even logistics infrastructure.
They can't do that because that would mean that a lots of troops aren't commanded by people for whom they've volunteered to serve.
....because too many volunteers lost the trust into commanders that do not care about them.
That's why units like the 3rd Assault have 'too many troops', and others can't scratch together even 1,000....
BTW, even if they could: they simply do not have the necessary equipment. Not even the utility vehicles. and medical equipment - not to talk about heavy arms.
And that's why 3rd Assault gets to expand, while others don't. People flow to quality. Transfers must be allowed. That'll help reveal the bad officers.
At some point you have to triage the modern kit and soldiers able and willing to go on offensive ops otherwise you've got a bunch of brigades with a single effective front line company, which is about how the orcs run things right now.
Frankly the Territorial Guard and light infantry brigades are often doing as well on the defense as many mechanized brigades if they have enough drone support.
If NATO would get its arse in gear and ship all available kit, triage wouldn't be necessary. But at some point you have to reorganize. And the war won't be won without offensive ops. Probably before next February, way the US is going.
I have to wonder about all the fighting on the Dnieper. It made good press certainly, and the fact it took the RU that long to retake that place certainly didn't make them look good. But other than PR what was the point? I guess tying down some RU units certainly happened, but I don't think you could have launched a major breakout from here. It kinda seemed like a Gallipoli only with with different guys.
Crazy question for everyone: does anyone have access to or know of websites with higher resolution satellite pictures of the SIERRA ARMY DEPOT (united States Army) located north or Herlong, California (North East quadrant of state and North of Lake Tahoe). They need to be higher resolution than EARTH VIEW 3D of standard GOOGLE MAPS and most importantly.....FREE!!!!!!
Thanks
Thank you, Tom. --- Why do not the Ukrainian target the Kerch bridge once and for all ? To push the Russian government into a crisis ? And then use the panic and push forward ? Is it not yet the time ? --- If you continue with only bad news, I will need three capuccinos in the morning :( Are there then no more Ukrainian forces on the left bank if Krynky is lost ?
Today's battlefield report noted clashes yesterday near Kozachi Laheri. That village is also on the left bank.
There is a school of thought (published by a Ukrainian news service) that the Kerch bridge is serving as bait for Russian air defence systems, and that's why we regularly hear about successful strikes on air defence equipment in Crimea. Every destroyed system gets replaced there because of the symbolic importance of the bridge.
The strategic importance of the bridge has probably lessened in the short term because the Russians may have finally established rail service to Crimea via the Ukrainian mainland.
The bridge is a huge and massive structure that would take a lot of firepower to bring down permanently even if it weren't this heavily defended. If the Russians, fearful of a strike, aren't using it to move supplies anyway, it doesn't make sense to waste missiles in limited supply to collapse maybe a span or two.
Because,
a) such an operation would require at least degrading the Russian air defences to the necessary level (i.e. 'drilling' another 'corridor', as described in the feature here: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/saints-thunders-and-lightnings-part-583)
b) that costs lots of weaponry which the West is not supplying, and
c) even if, because the weaponry the West is ready to supply is not powerful enough to knock out that bridge.
Thanks for the update. The loss at Dnipro is sad, But the usefulness was probably limited. However it is, apart from the North, yet another styring of slow and small defekts. The question is of course whether the total costs of winning these small gains is too big in the long run. Even if Putin doesnt care about the loss of life he still needs to replace them.
This is a attitional war and russians have taken this seriously, as Ukraine is still trying to get PR and "morale wins". The west as a common is now starting to think about the kind of war it is, but thinking in a "Cold War 2" mindset and waiting to the US elections to set a path.
It's like watching a train go half speed over a unfinished bridge over a Big river 200 metres down, and all the employees on the train are looking to their cellphones and making fun as they aproach the end if the railine of a chart that is taken by a donkey wich is advancing with difficulty down in the Valley and slowly triyng to cross the river on foot, with the water at the chest and the chart soaked. But it seems the donkey will Cross and the train... Well, the rail line is unfinished...
Cool analogies, but remember that Ukraine is not one entity and while some people are looking for PR wins others know exactly what kind of war this is. I wish there weren't stupid things to point to, but don't mistake it for all there is.
Second, third, and fourth this sentiment. 20% of any organization will, statistically speaking, under-perform. On average, though, Ukraine's system works better than the enemy's. There will be disasters. Big wins are coming too.
Thousands of pieces are moving, and the bosses at the top aren't the ones running the show. They try, but natural laws prevail.
Tom, since I have a feeling that new Questions&Answers edition of yours is coming, I have another question:
RU MoD regularly reports destructions of M198 howitzers. However, none were reported as officially delivered to UA. Do you have any clue about it?
Ru MoD regularly reports destruction of command posts full of NATO generals too....Konashenko's disciples probably cant distinguish between an FH-70 or TRF-1 and M198. Besides, how do you expect BAE to make millions out of this if the US delivered sturdy out of production M198 instead of the delicate M777?
Thank goodness they got out of Krynky finally. Marine ops are excellent, but they have to take the form of raids. Defending a narrow beachhead for months defeats the purpose. Much better to make the orcs rush reserves around trying to guess where the next raid will come.
People have got to realize that the scale of operations has to shift. More smaller operations are now better than a few big ones. The enemy must constantly have sand thrown into their eyes. Especially when, like the ruscist side, they have a systemic problem with sharing info.
Sadly, a clock is now ticking on US support for anyone. Vance is the real FSB asset, not Trump.
BTW, RUMINT has it, the Marines lost 788 MIA and 262 KIA in the Krynky bridgehead...
That’s a mess, if true. Granted it looks like they decimated the better part of an orc division (10k casualties, maybe), but the exchange is still much too high for a glorified raid.
Not much point in trying ops like that if they can’t be adequately supported.
There are XY- (enter the number of your preference) of people warning about Ukrainian commanders that can't care less for the lives of their troops - and that since 2014, at least.
....and it's only now that either Syrsky or Zelensky began removing such commanders. Thus, a lot left to be done in this regards.
Fortunately most brigades are now too big to operate as a coherent formation, so brigade level commanders are almost functionaries now. The lower down the chain you go, the younger and less Soviet the leadership gets.
This is why I push for expanding the 12-20 best brigades into semi-divisions, each with several independent battlegroups about 2 battalions in size. Mass must be thought of in terms of firepower, not personnel. Everything important on the front line going forward will be done by small combined arms company-level groupings working in tandem, often across broad fronts.
The good news is that the older generation of leaders need to take a less and less active approach. Especially as brigades build out their own recruitment and even logistics infrastructure.
They can't do that because that would mean that a lots of troops aren't commanded by people for whom they've volunteered to serve.
....because too many volunteers lost the trust into commanders that do not care about them.
That's why units like the 3rd Assault have 'too many troops', and others can't scratch together even 1,000....
BTW, even if they could: they simply do not have the necessary equipment. Not even the utility vehicles. and medical equipment - not to talk about heavy arms.
And that's why 3rd Assault gets to expand, while others don't. People flow to quality. Transfers must be allowed. That'll help reveal the bad officers.
At some point you have to triage the modern kit and soldiers able and willing to go on offensive ops otherwise you've got a bunch of brigades with a single effective front line company, which is about how the orcs run things right now.
Frankly the Territorial Guard and light infantry brigades are often doing as well on the defense as many mechanized brigades if they have enough drone support.
If NATO would get its arse in gear and ship all available kit, triage wouldn't be necessary. But at some point you have to reorganize. And the war won't be won without offensive ops. Probably before next February, way the US is going.
I have to wonder about all the fighting on the Dnieper. It made good press certainly, and the fact it took the RU that long to retake that place certainly didn't make them look good. But other than PR what was the point? I guess tying down some RU units certainly happened, but I don't think you could have launched a major breakout from here. It kinda seemed like a Gallipoli only with with different guys.
They didnt throw that many soldiers into it as the Brits at Gallilopoli.
Oh, I know. I'm talking the situation, not the numbers.
Crazy question for everyone: does anyone have access to or know of websites with higher resolution satellite pictures of the SIERRA ARMY DEPOT (united States Army) located north or Herlong, California (North East quadrant of state and North of Lake Tahoe). They need to be higher resolution than EARTH VIEW 3D of standard GOOGLE MAPS and most importantly.....FREE!!!!!!
Many Thanks....... :o)
Thanks Tom not a lot of good news here
I would like to believe that the ‘commitments’ coming out of the NATO summit will redress the balance somewhat
According to DeepState the last ZSU marines left Krynky in the mid of June.
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19907