Ukraine War, 17 July 2024
Hello everybody!
A brief update on latest from the battlefields, before I get back to more analysis.
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AIR/MISSILE WARFARE
The last week, the VKS and the VSRF have tried to target Ukrainian air bases in the west of the country (foremost the Starokostyantyniv AB; will be discussing this in a separate feature). They have also collapsed the power grid in the Nikopol area (by a combination of air- and FPV-strikes).
The last 4-5 days, the VKS focused on either pulverising selected sectors of the Ukrainian frontlines, or interdicting the flow of supplies and reinforcements for the ZSU through bombing areas behind them. Heaviest hit were the areas south of Vovchansk and Kupyansk. In the south, the last few days the VKS has heavily bombed Urozhaine, Kherson (city), but also multiple villages along the Dnipro, used as staging points for Ukrainian operations on the left/eastern bank of the river.
In turn, back during the night from Monday to Tuesday, the 19th Missile Brigade knocked out another of the Russian S-300 SAM-sites in the Mariupol area - using Sharks of the SSO and ATACMS.
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NORTHERN KHARKIV
On 13-14 July, the ZSU has managed to recover the border village of Sotnytsky Kozachok. I.e. has pushed the Russians back across the border in that area.
Hlyboke… Ukrainians are in the process of cutting off the Russians that are still inside the centre of the ruined village.
Vovchansk… the ZSU is pushing northwards, the Russians are happily keeping Ukrainians busy by holding out in the centre.
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BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kupyansk-Svatove…Yes, there were news and some Russian advances in this area the last week (see Don’s update from two days ago), but, ever since, there’s nothing new.
Siversk… the Russians have completed the capture of Razdolivka, and are consolidating their positions there.
Chasiv Yar… the Russians are back to trying to cross the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal. That said, they’re still preoccupied with trying to complete the seizure of Kalinina. At least all the Russian attacks over Klishchivka and into Andriivka have been repelled.
Toretsk… The Russian 27th Motor-Rifle Division made some incremental gains on the eastern side of Druzhba and in Khytryy Rivnok. The air strikes by the VKS, and repeated artillery barrages are meanwhile pulverising Toretsk. Further south, the Russian 132nd Motor-Rifle Brigade continued pushing into the centre of Niu York. A (bigger than the last week) counterattack by the Skala Battalion, ZSU, did manage to push it back, but failed to dislodge the Russians from the village: foremost, the Russians continued – and were successful – in widening their penetration of this sector towards the West (roughly in direction of Panteleimonivka).
Avdiivka-Pokrovsk… Attacking from Novooleksandrivka, the elements of the Russian Group Tsentr (2nd and 41st CAA) have reached the eastern side of Vozdvyzhenka, Lozuvatske (probably have that village under their control, already), and Prohres. Further south, they have secured Yevhenivka and Voskhod.
The Russians are inside northern and central Novoselivka Persha. Sure, the ZSU has counterattacked there, several times over the last week or so, but any gains were temporary by nature.
Mariinka… the battle for Krasnohorivka is going on and on. Sure, it’s an exgtremely slow battle: the Russians are pressing from the centre towards north, in usual fashion. See: they bomb and shell, then attack, attack, attack and attack until Ukrainians finally withdraw another house or two… but, the Russians are still grinding forwards.
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SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Staromaiorske... The worst news arrived on 13 July: the ZSU withdrew from Urozhaine. The entire village is under the Russian control. Reason: the Russian air- and FPV-strikes, plus artillery barrages, have demolished all the defence positions. There was nothing left to defend from….
Kherson-Dnipro… and another, similar news is making circles since the last night: two or three days ago, the Ukrainian Marines should have completed the evacuation of the Krynky bridgehead. With other words: months-long battles along the left side of the Dnipro are over.
Thank goodness they got out of Krynky finally. Marine ops are excellent, but they have to take the form of raids. Defending a narrow beachhead for months defeats the purpose. Much better to make the orcs rush reserves around trying to guess where the next raid will come.
People have got to realize that the scale of operations has to shift. More smaller operations are now better than a few big ones. The enemy must constantly have sand thrown into their eyes. Especially when, like the ruscist side, they have a systemic problem with sharing info.
Sadly, a clock is now ticking on US support for anyone. Vance is the real FSB asset, not Trump.
This is a attitional war and russians have taken this seriously, as Ukraine is still trying to get PR and "morale wins". The west as a common is now starting to think about the kind of war it is, but thinking in a "Cold War 2" mindset and waiting to the US elections to set a path.
It's like watching a train go half speed over a unfinished bridge over a Big river 200 metres down, and all the employees on the train are looking to their cellphones and making fun as they aproach the end if the railine of a chart that is taken by a donkey wich is advancing with difficulty down in the Valley and slowly triyng to cross the river on foot, with the water at the chest and the chart soaked. But it seems the donkey will Cross and the train... Well, the rail line is unfinished...