76 Comments
(Banned)Feb 17
User was indefinitely suspended for this comment. Show
Expand full comment

Petr, why dont you sod off somewhere else if you dont like reading.

Expand full comment

You really can't write something smarter? I subscribe to quite a few serious Telegram channels and none of them mention how much percent the combat unit has been reduced. This is information that belongs to the military secrets of every army. So, if someone publishes such numbers, then it is only and only controlled disinformation or speculation that may be out of proportion. And from one old video that I saw about 5 days ago, this information really cannot be found out.

Expand full comment

ооо а какие ты телеграм-каналы читаешь?)) Варгонзо, два майора и т.д. Так у вас там победы одни.

Expand full comment

Yes, I'm reading that too. But I'm happy to be educated on what the right ones to read are.

Expand full comment
author

Yeah, hehe: 🤑...entirely incomprehensible that I've got better contacts to the ZSU than the VSRF.

Who would have ever thought, eh? 🙄

Expand full comment

From the written speech, it is difficult to tell if the answer is sarcasm or if you mean it. I assume the first version.

I subscribe to quite a few serious Telegram channels and none of them mention how much percent the combat unit has been reduced. This is information that belongs to the military secrets of every army. So, if someone publishes such numbers, then it is only and only controlled disinformation or speculation that may be out of proportion.

If the answer was not sarcasm and you have good sources for the correction at ZSU, then that changes the situation.

Expand full comment
author
Feb 17·edited Feb 17Author

'Sarcasm'?

Really, no idea where do you come to such thoughts while reading a blog named SARCASTOSAURUS...

Expand full comment

That's disappointing, and I was hoping you had some insider sources from ZSU :(

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

He already wrote in article that he have "small finger" to pull data out. Why you are so upset?

Expand full comment

Oh, silly me. How dare I doubt.

Expand full comment

lol you subscribe to “very serious telegram accounts” what an authority on the war you must be!

Expand full comment

Another one like that. You have no idea what all channels (including pro-Ukrainian) and not only telegram channels (such as YB History legents and Military & History) I subscribe to, but you already judge. You will certainly recommend me some serious telegram accounts . Here with them.

Expand full comment

well you subscribe to this very serious substack account too, maybe it is the most serious of them all and can publish percentages!

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the updates Tom. Very tough days ahead. I hear the Robotyne front is getting hotter as well with the Russians pushing forward.

Expand full comment
author
Feb 17·edited Feb 17Author

....yup, and local drone-drivers of the ZSU have lots of fun plinking them there.

It's an entirely different battlefield in southern Zaporizhzhya, than this in Donbass.

Expand full comment

Why Ukraine could not concentrate a lot of drones ( like they did in Krynky ) and push orcs out of Avdiivka?

Expand full comment

It's not just about concentrating, it's also about having more drones than the enemy and there's more (much more) of the enemy in Avdiivka than in Krynky.

Expand full comment
Feb 18·edited Feb 18

The bandwidth for drones' radio is limited - they would interdict each other's radios.

In Krynky the drones were sent over Dnipro from a long line of the western shore, thus operators were not crowded. In Avdiivka the defenders were crowded, and there were too many attackers + buildings block radio waves + heavy bombing. The Russians also were likely to use EW from all the sides.

Expand full comment

Drones are an effective weapon that do a lot of damage and drone operators went without sleep to support the troops but they are not artillery. The Russians presented massed targets, which is perfect for artillery, but there were more targets than drones could hope to account for. You also have to consider the limited number of operating frenquencies that both sides were using and electronic warfare.

In terms of numbers of troops on both sides, Krynky as a battle is about 1% the size of Avdiivka.

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you, Tom, again, for continuing to bring us your invaluable updates. Not sure how you do it with everything else going on, but thank you. Between Stefan and you, you guys keep my faith in honest reporting.

Expand full comment

Tom: first of all, as always, thank you!

What’s your take on the situation with munitions, most importantly, 155-mm? To what extent Ukrainian supply is limited by funding holdup in the US, and to what extent those munitions are simply non-existent, not manufactured yet? Do you have any ideas about how many are still held in the warehouses in the US, Europe, and other Ukraine-friendly places?

Expand full comment
author

Sorry, no precise idea, right now. Don's already working on all of these questions: hope, he might find the answers on time for his next Weekly.

Expand full comment
Feb 17·edited Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Deliveries from Serbia to Ukraine of shells is almost everyday.

Ukraine Antonov keep landing and taking of almost everyday from Serbia.

Expand full comment

Just to be clear: this is very bad!

Nothing to like!

Peace should be achieved as soon as possible.

Expand full comment
Feb 17·edited Feb 17

Czechs can get and deliver 500k 155mm and 300k 122mm shels in weeks not years (we do have some contacts arround the world), but it need funding. There are negotiations with US, Germany and Sweeden (probably not France - they are focusing on increase of their production to the "amazing" level of 3k 155mm a month and thats why they do block purchase from outside of EU - "clever and lifes of ZSU soldiers and UA civilians saving"). https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-pavel-cesko-muze-ukrajine-v-radu-tydnu-dodat-delostreleckou-munici-40461078

Its time to act and stop the war (finish it), politics might wait for the time people stop dying. So you can support by pushing to your governments

In case to want to support directly you might donate directly, in case you dont know how https://www.weaponstoukraine.com/

Expand full comment

Yes, I've read about this in Ukrainian press, and am very grateful for the Czech people and personally President Pavel for this effort. If money is really the only issue here, I hope money will be found, and quickly.

And yes, I know how to donate money for Ukrainian war efforts, and do it. Thank you!

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you, Tom, for the hard work and for providing what information you can credibly find and assess about a situation in which the dust is still settling. I appreciate reading it.

Every good faith reader should understand that the information is very fluid, and that nothing comes with an iron-clad guarantee at this early phase in trying to make sense of the results. It is an iterative process.

Expand full comment

Exactly! I would just like to add that the situation is not "pleasant", but my impression is that it's not critical. I mean, let's look at the history. Did the fall of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk lead to the fall of Siversk? No, it didn't. Did the fall of Bakhmut lead to the fall of Kramatorsk/Slovyansk? No, it didn't. So, hopefully, the fall of Avdiivka will not lead to a collapse of a larger section of the battlefield. Again, it is certainly not good news, and the pressure in Donbas will further increase, but the war is still far from being lost!

Expand full comment

Really? Accurate description of Russian losses by units yet no idea on Ukrainian ones!! Wow

Expand full comment

бот

Expand full comment

If he had some numbers on Ukrainian losses, and other stuff that is not known to public, dont you think it would be smart to hold back the information, and not feed it to the russians?

Expand full comment

There are so many layers of sarcasm that I don't actually understand what is the information.

I'm serious, not trolling.

I can't tell what this article is saying. Was it really bad for Ukraine? Just bad? Or maybe it was worth it?

Maybe you could have a small section which summarizes the information straight, with no editorializing?

Expand full comment

Only time can give answers to your questions. Tom just laid out the facts known to him at the moment, without judgment or deep analysis. Thanks to him for that too.

Expand full comment
author

Ah come on: I've been much more sarcastic a number of times. There's more than enough info if you read carefully.

Expand full comment

Thanks for your efforts trying to give some clarity to this chaotic situation. I’m not surprised that some who believe that Russian forces cannot be defeated are skeptical of the report. So much winning!

Expand full comment

This is most sarco-chaotic informations by Tom in last month that hardly is anything clear so far.

Expand full comment

Thank you for this valuable report.

Ignore the haters.

You are doing good work which most of your readers appreciate.

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

It's a pity that you have to put up with some of the drivel people write about your invaluable contributions to our understanding of this atrocious war. I'm sure that you won't be deterred - in fact you may be encouraged. There are more than a few of us who assign high value to your work. Thank you. Keep it up.

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Got lucky, I read through and my feelings are not hurt 😉.

Many thanks for deviating from your rule. I personally find this assessments very helpful and find no reason to be mad at you 🤷🏻‍♂️

Expand full comment

"pulls the finger"

Expand full comment

Even if its just 2 km on 2 km area - I still dont wanna give an inch to orcs.

If West gave Ukraine artillery ammunition - Avdiivka would be a graveyard for orcs

Expand full comment

History isn’t familiar with “if” word. Situation is as it is: Avdiivka is out of UA control. Hope, one day blue-yellow flag is to replace “aqua fresh”.

Zsu had no chance to keep Avdiivka front in such circumstances. It was pure hell.

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

1st Sloviansk brigade was (re)built/filled during Avdiivka operation at least 2 times. So, i would estimate its losses ratio at like 120-140% its initial stuff

Expand full comment
author

...or higher... the problem is that they do not have computer-supported administration, and have lost the list of original complement already back in March 2022.

Thus, nobody can say.

Expand full comment
Feb 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks, Tom, now I can imagine what a bloody mess was the last hours for the battle for Avidiivka.

Expand full comment

He has a russian pronunciation and has a russian point of view, not independent. I think it's quite hard to name him an independent person. So he's a low-quality source, but maybe he has something interesting.

Expand full comment