Hello everybody! An update at ‘unusual hour’, because of latest developments in the Avidiivka area. Essentially, upon realising that the ZSU is in the process of withdrawing from the ruins of the town, the Russians launched such a massive onslaught, that the outcome of this battle can only be described as a ‘veritable catastrophe’.
Rather, Republicans don't have the brains to allocate money to help Ukraine. After all, the US is Ukraine's security guarantor under the Budapest Memorandum.
Republicans? It's the US Government - run by the Democrats - that's shipping all the 155mm ammunition made for Ukraine, to Israel. And that for four months already.
Thus, effectively, though as meanwhile usual: there is absolutely no difference between the US Democrats and Republicans. Both are screwing up.
....and the EU-governments are faithfully following in fashion.
Really, cannot but find this funny: for months already, half of you 'followers' here are getting a nervous breakdown every time I express any kind of critique for Israel, and the idiotic Western support for it, 'regardless the consequences'.
Now that my reporting is clearly showing you just one of the consequences in question, 'nah, it can't be: the Republicans...'
Recommendation: stop searching for excuses, finally. Activate your brains, THINK and ACT.
This is an ignorant but serious followup question, but is Israel using all of those artillery shells that should be going to Ukraine? Given Israel’s weapon stockpile before they even went into Gaza, it doesn’t seem like they would need it? Is artillery a big component of their actions in Gaza? Honestly, I’ve been closely following Ukraine, but not Gaza and am uninformed there. Thanks.
Well, gauging by all the use of 70-years-old M117s (US-made bombs from the 1940s), their stockpiles were either not very significant, or largely consisting of obsolete ammunition.
...which is little surprise, actually: just like the USA, Israel is fighting another war every 2-5 years, and the expenditure of whatever was left after the (I) Cold War was heavy. Certainly heavier than all the production ever since.
I think this is going to end in similar fashion like the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk operation: with the Russians out of troops, and unable to continue offensive operations for at least a month or two.
They last time they attacked Vuhledar directly it was a disaster for Russia. There's a kill zone of 1300-2000 m and defensive positions of high-rise apartment buildings. No position is impregnable but Vuhledar is a strong position.
Russia doesn't get exhausted. It either has resources to attack or it doesn't.
With Uhledar i mean Mariinka->Novomykhailivka->Vuhledar direction. Ru are pushing like mad this line now
You are fully right about resources: they have enough, but ru is not able to run operative offensives on 2+ directions at the same time any more. So, they will be concentrating their resources for next “hard push” somewhere. As for me logically it could be Robotyne->to erase results of summer UA offensive or to secure railway supply by Vuhledar occupation
All other directions are with less potential as for me…
Also Avdiivka was a strong point. Unfortunately Russia seems to have found a weapon (massive glide bomb barrage to destroy fortifications) where Ukraine at the moment is unable to counter and the stop of US supply at the moment makes the situation worse.
The importance of Avdiivka was overestimated to such degree that such outcome seems inevitable. Nevertheless if Ukraine had weapons instead of meetings and conferences it would be a far better help.
Probably for the best at this point. This is the only way Russia advances: pound the objective till no two stones lie atop another, charge until the enemy runs out of ammo, become king of the ashes. Or in this case a coal slag heap
Wondering from where you pick up those numbers of KIA/MIA. Enough to follow few groups in Telegram and FB ( pro UA) to see the reality that is dire. There are more that 15.000 UA PoW according to thise channels and more than 7000 MiA on UA side. Just saying for the sake of clarity.
This a just group where people post photos or names of their relatives who they think are MIA or PoWs. There are no 15k/7k Avdiivka numbers here. Can you please send the link to your numbers. You either confused Avdiivka-related PoW/MIAs with the numbers for the whole 2-year invasion or you're just a troll.
I never said for Avdiika, I am talking about general figures. No need to insult , as soon as people read narrative that is not fitting in their mind set are trolls.I am confident that I had much better resources thanTom or you. Searching for the missing people in relation to IAC is my part of the work for past 26 years. Have a nice day
It's surprizingly unprofessional for you being a 26-years in this job to miss that Tom's numbers were about Avdiivka only, and still you are stubborn in that your statement counters him. Maybe you need a rest.
Check telegram Baza PIB, 12210 missing/captured UAF, post created by Ukranian admin based on visual recognition of those captured . For the missing just type in telegram number of brigade and check for yourself.As soon as we stop glorifying " successes of UaF" and have reality check we will have head out of sand.You and me arguing here will not change those facts. Have a nice day
Many thanks for the update. Very sad to read that, but isn’t don’t expected as fighting withdrawal is the most difficult “trick” in the military “book”.
Here from horses' mouth:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1757919262889685150
But of course, people guessing from hundreds and thousands of kilometres away, know better...
Hi Tom, thanks for the update . .
Oh for the want of artillery...
Ещё с февраля 2022
....'rather': 'artillery shells'...
Rather, Republicans don't have the brains to allocate money to help Ukraine. After all, the US is Ukraine's security guarantor under the Budapest Memorandum.
Republicans? It's the US Government - run by the Democrats - that's shipping all the 155mm ammunition made for Ukraine, to Israel. And that for four months already.
Thus, effectively, though as meanwhile usual: there is absolutely no difference between the US Democrats and Republicans. Both are screwing up.
....and the EU-governments are faithfully following in fashion.
Really, cannot but find this funny: for months already, half of you 'followers' here are getting a nervous breakdown every time I express any kind of critique for Israel, and the idiotic Western support for it, 'regardless the consequences'.
Now that my reporting is clearly showing you just one of the consequences in question, 'nah, it can't be: the Republicans...'
Recommendation: stop searching for excuses, finally. Activate your brains, THINK and ACT.
This is an ignorant but serious followup question, but is Israel using all of those artillery shells that should be going to Ukraine? Given Israel’s weapon stockpile before they even went into Gaza, it doesn’t seem like they would need it? Is artillery a big component of their actions in Gaza? Honestly, I’ve been closely following Ukraine, but not Gaza and am uninformed there. Thanks.
Well, gauging by all the use of 70-years-old M117s (US-made bombs from the 1940s), their stockpiles were either not very significant, or largely consisting of obsolete ammunition.
...which is little surprise, actually: just like the USA, Israel is fighting another war every 2-5 years, and the expenditure of whatever was left after the (I) Cold War was heavy. Certainly heavier than all the production ever since.
Never heard of this. Can you show us a link to prove that statement?
Спасибо за работу, Том.
Как думаете, какой следующий пункт крупного натиска будет у РФ? Орехов? Васильевка или Харьковское направление?
After THIS?
I think this is going to end in similar fashion like the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk operation: with the Russians out of troops, and unable to continue offensive operations for at least a month or two.
Спасибо за ответ
My guess Robotyne could be the next Schwerpunkt. Ru has got enough relative fresh troops there. Of course it might be very limited tactical offensive
My second guess: Vuhledar. Also very important for railway security. And also very local tactical operation
Both sides are extremely exhausted for operational activities
They are already attacking Robotyne now.
They last time they attacked Vuhledar directly it was a disaster for Russia. There's a kill zone of 1300-2000 m and defensive positions of high-rise apartment buildings. No position is impregnable but Vuhledar is a strong position.
Russia doesn't get exhausted. It either has resources to attack or it doesn't.
With Uhledar i mean Mariinka->Novomykhailivka->Vuhledar direction. Ru are pushing like mad this line now
You are fully right about resources: they have enough, but ru is not able to run operative offensives on 2+ directions at the same time any more. So, they will be concentrating their resources for next “hard push” somewhere. As for me logically it could be Robotyne->to erase results of summer UA offensive or to secure railway supply by Vuhledar occupation
All other directions are with less potential as for me…
Also Avdiivka was a strong point. Unfortunately Russia seems to have found a weapon (massive glide bomb barrage to destroy fortifications) where Ukraine at the moment is unable to counter and the stop of US supply at the moment makes the situation worse.
Robotyne is under attack https://real-vin.com/okupanti-pishli-u-masovanij-nastup-na-robotine
Thanks for the update. Lets hope the rest of the retreat goes well. The disasaster here has been brewing for a long time.
Tom, thank you for the honest update.
I guess their ratio went up, like Bahmut. Easy to pick them from range, but urban fighting is horrible for both sides.
The importance of Avdiivka was overestimated to such degree that such outcome seems inevitable. Nevertheless if Ukraine had weapons instead of meetings and conferences it would be a far better help.
Oof
Thanks!
Probably for the best at this point. This is the only way Russia advances: pound the objective till no two stones lie atop another, charge until the enemy runs out of ammo, become king of the ashes. Or in this case a coal slag heap
As Putin said, they are copying the Advanced Western Democracies. I am sure you have seen the photos of Raqqa and Gaza ...
Thanks for the updates. This is very very sad
...and to top things off the FUQQING REPUBLICANS in the House of Representatives just started a TWO WEEK FREAKING VACATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My feeling is that they will vote only after Putin is reelected.
My feeling is they will never vote.
That cannot be excluded :(
Wondering from where you pick up those numbers of KIA/MIA. Enough to follow few groups in Telegram and FB ( pro UA) to see the reality that is dire. There are more that 15.000 UA PoW according to thise channels and more than 7000 MiA on UA side. Just saying for the sake of clarity.
Can you post the Telegram/FB links to those numbers or at least the names of those channels groups?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/3661467393976985/?ref=share&mibextid=NSMWBT
Will send as well telegram but easy to find. Each UAF brigade has their own group....
This a just group where people post photos or names of their relatives who they think are MIA or PoWs. There are no 15k/7k Avdiivka numbers here. Can you please send the link to your numbers. You either confused Avdiivka-related PoW/MIAs with the numbers for the whole 2-year invasion or you're just a troll.
I never said for Avdiika, I am talking about general figures. No need to insult , as soon as people read narrative that is not fitting in their mind set are trolls.I am confident that I had much better resources thanTom or you. Searching for the missing people in relation to IAC is my part of the work for past 26 years. Have a nice day
It's surprizingly unprofessional for you being a 26-years in this job to miss that Tom's numbers were about Avdiivka only, and still you are stubborn in that your statement counters him. Maybe you need a rest.
Check telegram Baza PIB, 12210 missing/captured UAF, post created by Ukranian admin based on visual recognition of those captured . For the missing just type in telegram number of brigade and check for yourself.As soon as we stop glorifying " successes of UaF" and have reality check we will have head out of sand.You and me arguing here will not change those facts. Have a nice day
No, this is completely biased report. Yesterdays loses by this report are as follows:
RUS :
2300 + remains of 2 brigades wiped out = approx 4000
UKR : dozes = approx 24-96
4000 vs 50 , UKR are robocops fighting through the encirclement and eating FABs for breakfast.
Many thanks for the update. Very sad to read that, but isn’t don’t expected as fighting withdrawal is the most difficult “trick” in the military “book”.
It is cruel, but isn't this veritable catastrophe the best Russians could get, taking into consideration the loss ratio they took so far?