Ukraine War, 17 February 2024: Melee in Avidiivka

Hello everybody!

An update at ‘unusual hour’, because of latest developments in the Avidiivka area.

Essentially, upon realising that the ZSU is in the process of withdrawing from the ruins of the town, the Russians launched such a massive onslaught, that the outcome of this battle can only be described as a ‘veritable catastrophe’.

….and that for both sides.

The ZSU seems to have planned a so-called ‘phased withdrawal’. That is: first to go were the units holding the eastern side of positions, outside the down. Then the units holding the south. Then the units holding the town were to withdraw to the 9th District, and from there to fall back further west etc…

The 110th Mech led the way. Its I Battalion seems to have completed its withdrawal relatively intact (at least there are meanwhile videos showing its T-72s and different infantry fighting vehicles on the way out, disturbed by the Russian shelling). Already the withdrawal of its II Battalion from the Zenit fortification collapsed towards its conclusion: as mentioned yesterday, at least six wounded were left behind, and about a dozen of troops killed while withdrawing…

Foremost, the Russians then launched such a massive attack - they have rushed literally all they’ve got into the onslaught - and that from so many directions, and ‘supported’ by over 50 air strikes, that both their own, and the Ukrainian plans then fell apart.

The result was what is termed with ‘melee’ in military vocabulary (from French mêlée). See: disorganised battle fought at ‘abnormally’ close range, with little control from above, and that all over the ruined Avidiivka. Something like ‘Hollywood-style, everybody against everybody, at very short ranges’.

Unsurprisingly, details are still fragmented, but what can be assessed from what has been reported by now, is looking something like this:

• yesterday alone, the Russians should have lost over 1,300 ‘killed in action’ (KIA), and another 1,000 were ‘wounded in action’ (WIA); their casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) is so poor, that the mass of the wounded cannot even be evacuated (if they are found, just for the start); plus, local military hospitals are hopelessly overfilled;

• The Russian 74th and 114th Motor Rifle Brigades have been wiped out in the process (their combined loss is assessed with over 4,000 KIA and WIA);

• however, the ZSU also suffered dozens of losses, and - worst of all - left dozens of additional WIA behind in Avidiivka (reportedly: ‘dozens’, mostly those from the ‘north-eastern position’, formerly outside the town). Considering the poor state of the Russian CASEVAC… sigh…

Where are the frontlines right now, I doubt even the local commanders can say with any significant dose of certainty. My ‘best guess’ is that the the ZSU is trying to hold out in the 9th District, buying time to collect scattered troops that are falling back from the ruins of Avidiivka. If so, the situation is something like this:

Of course, more details are to follow in the morning (or days later), but the point is: I do not expect them to contain any ‘good news’.

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ADD-ON

Here’s something for those ‘having doubts’ about Russian losses: a video released by a Russian soldier, showing the battlefield in the Krasnohorivka area, about 5km north of Avidiivka (check my map above) - and then in the aftermath of a ‘Russian success’:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1757919262889685150

Gauging by his description, this was a Spetsnaz brigade assaulting an Ukrainian position: yes, it has taken it, but lost tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and scores of troops, and is down to 30% of its nominal strength as result (i.e. has only around 600+ out of 2000+ troops left).