Won't be surprised to read the day Ukrainian lines collapse and the entirety of this fucking war is for nothing. Am I exaggerating? Of course I know that, I can't predict the future. But at this point, unless something big happens (enough to even impress you Tom), then this whole war was for fucking nothing.
Not quite nothing. If the Ukrainians are steady in their resolve to fight they will have caused the Russians great expense and loss of life, difficulty in trusting even a quisling regime in Ukraine and the problem of much, much better preparation by the intended victims of their next conquest. They will have control of Ukrainian resources and the fearsome reputation of ruthless victors and possible leadership of the BRICS - but they will have paid a price too
They would have problems in trusting those recruits. The German army of 1914 had difficulty in trusting its Alsatians, one of whom, Robert Schumann, went on to become Prime Minister of France.
I am not saying that the Russians would not be happy with the outcome, just that they would have paid a price. The Ukrainian resistance would not have been ‘for nothing’
"Unlike Ukraine they will not hesitate to grab as much people as they want."
Strange, that you never saw any of effectively hundreds videos of ordinary UA males caught in a daylight on the streets and forced to the front. Here are some fresh ones:
BTW, today a local activist, who was helping authorities to grab people to army in Odessa, someone Gennadiy Beybutyan (ethnic Armenian, what an irony) what found dead, shot with 12 bullets. A good example for the UA people what to do with "recruiters".
Those efforts are still sporadic, not systematic, and often ending up in bribes and similar. Most of the male population of various ages unaffected. So far mobilization is simply not working in any smart way, with stupid things happening mostly. Potential on both sides is still many times more that was manifested already. So far it rather looks that war would continue to escalate, no resolution in sight and more forces would be involved. The only question is what would become eventually limiting factor. Technology, material resources or people, those all has an untapped potential.
Not likely, firstly it is not known what would be the policy. Secondly, it is highly likely a period of huge internal turbulence would follow. The US internal disagreements could reach such extent, that external involvements in all respects would be scaled down. Also EU has a huge potential considering their direct interest in not only settling this, but doing in a way that restores economic flows. And most probaly UA will do anything to prevent that, and keep EU supporting war effort. This winter ru most likely will bomb UA infrastructure, and industry into oblivion, and millions of people will experience a seriuos amount of suffering. Response would be back to ru oil refineries, ports, electricity, industry, all of which was temporarily stopped.
A decent human being would hope that Putin would die of natural causes, not wish another leader with authoritarian tendencies be elected. But that's not you, is it?
Yawn. I've heard this line from people like you since the first week of the war. Yet, somehow, despite your superb forecasting skills which are obviously far beyond the means of us mere mortals, you are proved wrong time and time again. So Tom despises the Ukrainian high command? That's his thing. He does it very well. Can you perhaps imagine what he would be like if he were Russian? Because they are far worse. Give yourself (and us) a break from your hand-wringing. It serves no purpose.
I rarely see Tom predict much, but ok. I am sure he has FAU-lederen, as everybody else has. Yes, the Russians are probably worse, but shouldnt Gen-Stab U try to be better? And to improve?
Person you are replying to did not claim Tom was forecasting. He's describing how this "so all this was for nothing" is just reheated cabbage from the first days of the war.
PS. Seems to me there isn't much disagreement really, so we can be less toxic to each other. (Myself included)
Я хочу запитати чи в курсі пан Том що у Подоляка - рідний брат служив у ГРУ росії, і загинув на війні, а у Єрмака, здається тато був також чи то ГРУ чи ФСБ, ну хід думок ви розумієте, це точно не співпадіння*, але простий українець як я має йти в окоп і обличчям ловити ракети, та снаряди, поки у верхівці сидять люди, у яких родичі або зв'язки з кацапам(((
Доповню: мені здається що тут в коментарях сидть і читає половина* генштабу нашого, ну московського точно.
Давайте відверто. Ви би не пішли в окоп навіть якби всі посадовці країни мали ідеальну репутацію. Просто тому що ніколи не станете ризикувати нічим , окрім як заради себе, та (можливо) своєї сім'ї.
Відверто, пішов би, бо у нас українців є одна риса- фаталізм, але моє суспільство розірване на шматки, несправедливою, мобілізацією, одні штурмують сауни з моделями в Куршавелі, винні льохи..... Можу прикладів багато привести, а так, ні я не маю мотивації, в про це чесно кажу, але якщо всі гуртом, то самопожертва не є для українців проблемою, нажаль не для всіх, я відповів відверто без лицемірства вам
Схоже в різних країнах живемо. Там де живу я людина що добровільно йде служити більшістю вважається ідіотом і хворим. Багато хто каже їм про це прямо в лице, інші за спиною. Ці люди також штурмують сауни, купляють інвалідність ітд ітп, якщо мають можливість. Суспільство абсолютно відповідає владній верхівці. І лише кілька мільйонів людей так чи інакше тягнуть все на собі. Ніяке об'єднання тут неможливо, якщо тверезо дивится на це все.
Для прикладу, у Віталія Кличко, він мер Києва, у нього заступник Володимир Бондаренко купив 1 з трьох вищих освіт, він займає місце яке дає бронювання від мобілізації, я не рахую скільки грошей він отримує, бо це як кажуть росіяни:- нищебродство, я сподіваюся ви почули мене, що мене розриває за середини.
Я пишу чистою українською, але, якимось чином пости видає з помилками ((( і коли редагую, то показує все вірно, але сам пост опубліковується з граматичними помилками.
Maybe bringing new ideas? What about realizing that fighting like this is playing in VSRF hands and not retreat to the Dnieper? Russians hace Lost huge amounts of bridging equipment and the sheer sized of the river is a magnificent defense line.
And then rebuilt the army and try to advance. Train better troops. Reform the army.
Keep fighting like this only favor the country with most numerous weapons and men.
Is like watching a box Match that hace endured 33 rounds, but one of them still can change gloves and take water as usual and the other is alone with no assistants at all and have their water gone dry.
Where do you get the 15M? Why You think that all of them want to leave? Most of eastern Ukraine talk in russian.
Kyev is not the only city. The West have many cities too. Relocate to Lvov?
Defendind succesfully the Dnieper waiting to the collective West to get a longstanding peace looks more real now than pretend that somehow ZSU is going to beat the VSRF in an attrition war.
Again, what happen if the front collapses and Kyev es besieged, and the russians get múltiple crosses over the Dnieper un the chaos of collapse?
>> Kyev is not the only city. The West have many cities too. Relocate to Lvov?
- Lviv is small and already overpopulated. Other cities in the Western Ukraine are even smaller.
>> Defendind succesfully the Dnieper
- The river does not help against the glide bombs and missiles.
>> Again, what happen if the front collapses and Kyev es besieged
- Let's wait and see.
>> he russians get múltiple crosses over the Dnieper un the chaos of collapse?
- We've already seen that in 2022. They were unable to supply their front units through the forests of the Northern Ukraine - the perfect cover for guerillas.
Many people don't want to resettle. Ukrainians în Kupiansk, Kerson and Lyman were free to leave for Ukraine yet they stood put. There were large populations în each of these cities when the Ukrainian Army returned.
Look at population of Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Volchansk. How many happy ukrainians came to greet their “liberators”
Back in 2022 population was mostly influenced by Ze joking about BBQ on May holidays. So, they had not a chance to escape russians moving too fast. Now in 2024 most population runs away from the “russian world”
The population runs from fighting not the russians.
There were still people în Avdeevka who emerged after the fighting.
The people of Pokrovsk didn't leave when the Russians were 10km away. They left when Ukrainian reinforcements arrived and it was clear that the city will be fought over and destroyed.
Any firm facts why are people running/not running away? Or simply manipulations?
How big is population of Bakhmut right now? Avdiivka?
People stay in their homes hoping the war will be stopped right here, 10km away. Just imagine their live: all your savings, all your property is here, in the city. And you have to run away? Where to run to? Where to find a job? Where to find a flat, do i have money for it?
Just make yourself as if you were in such situation
While that might sound good in theory, mass withdrawals like that can have disastrous consequences: see what happened to South Vietnamese forces in 1975. If desertion is a problem now, large scale retreat will make it magnitudes worse.
It is indeed difficult to know what to make of the NK story. SK is backing it up but I see that Mark Rutte is unconvinced. If true - if! - it might be a sign of Russian exhaustion in spite of all the bravado.
Your report indicates that sometimes, in spite of absolutely everything, the Ukrainians are still having successes, with Russian forces ‘smashed’. Might we read this as saying that there is still plenty of good leadership on the ground and that this is a war of a hundred daily very brutal skirmishes, where the best leaders can’t be everywhere - and so that the overall result is not far from the best that could be expected from an outnumbered army awaiting fresh supplies from its international friends, who do seem to be about to make another serious effort?
It maybe not the sign of being exhausted, but maybe because NK soldiers are trained already to some degree, plus less expensive then locals, considering current $20K sign up bonus to ru army. I think they will test it in some smaller numbers, and if works okay, would scale it up.
I don't see how would they use Korean infantry w/o Korean officer corps and so on up the hierarchy. Single-use meat is the only possible option and even then, w/o any chance at communication, or understanding even the most primitive of orders.
But I have to admit I want to watch the inevitable clusterfuck if they try.
Just a clarification, if they are found in the field, but say 10km away from the frontline, does it count?
For I remember to keep an eye on your wording. One month past, two month past, Pokrovsk is not taken, next deadline in January. Hope you are also keeping track of your bets and their success.
Pokrovsk bet was about city falling în December January if not reinforced.
The bet for NK troops requires them to be on the frontline, not în the support zone or rear . We must discern between military observers and combat troops.
People who work as a analyst have to be really tough against mental fatigue. All the data and information must be connected to make one clear picture. I know how fun but also demanding this can be. As a long time reader I would suggest, that you should take a week off. War does not have a break, but no one can expect that some people can deliver some high quality information without any breaks. I think you deserve it.
Один мій друг (давно і добре знаю) за один робочий день збирає 7-10 FPV (тестують системи інші працівники), на лінії збірки їх працює 6 осіб. Отже тільки одна з компаній виготовляє 60 FPV/день.
А Зеленський - тільки клоун, що може вивчити і виразно декламувати текст.
Sternenko, which would represent not more then 20% of all volunteer volumes buys on average 200 UAVs per day. With 100K+ total already. So volunteers buy at least 1000 per day.
Well add 1000 from volunteers and 1000 from gov, 50/50.
From what I read from Fedorov, he says: this year would be "produced" more 1 mln. of drones, this means produced whether it was bought by gov of volunteers.
And then continues to say we have "contracted" for hundreds of thousands of drones. Which reads to me they were all the year much behind their own plan because of beuracracy and stupidity. But then "volunteers have saved our asses and ZSU, and we are catching up (probably next year)".
Ze was more precise as Fedorov: 1kk from the state were not only produced, but delivered to ZSU! I imagine drone operators in happy orgasm launching dozens of FPVs daily
Sternenko’s foundation is the only one able to trade/manipulate explosives. So in FPV segment his share is far bigger as 20%.
With all my respect to you, you are too optimistic in this issue.
Just simple maths: 1kk drones from state+0,5kk other sources=1,5kk drones in total. Lets put their effectivity at 25%, so that means 375000 targets hit. Lets make 3 fpvs per target - 125000 kills, incl vehicles and manpower. Really?
Plus Mavics, bombers and other striking drones. Come on, with such figures ZSU should have been assaulting Moscow, not retreating from Vuhledar.
And the last, but not the least:
In Aug-Sep 2024 Procurement Agency (main MoD contractor) had fcked up to supply ZSU with 3000 Mavic 3T, they have managed to buy…50(!). “No money” reason.
I do not understand what you are saying, either you are using not precise words, or I am missing something.
Sternenko foundation simply collects money. It is producers that produce UAVs or manipulate explosives (certified). Or ZSU units for that matter. The market prints the forms for ZSU often, and they would assemble it with explosive and all.
Let us not meddle with annual numbers, as I said for daily 1500 KIA + WIA how much you need? Let us say there is 4000 artillery shells used per day. How many FPVs then? Minimum 2000. Most likely 2500, maximum 3000. Per day.
I have ment that due to that fact that Sternenko foundation has permission to handle with explosives, they are more focused on FPV than any other volunteer foundation, like Fenix, Prytula, Klitchko etc because he is able to make end product incl payload or to supply ready to make product to ZSU (standartized payloads for FPVs are our dream by now, thats why payload is extremely important). Magyar is also focused on FPVs and EWS systems. So, my estimation: these 2 guys make together like 50+% of all donations for FPVs.
FPVs are more precise than a shell or gun, so you need 2, max 3 FPVs per kill. Amoung kill options i’d mention FPVs, bombers, artillery, guns, mines, air strikes. So even if FPVs share is 30%, you need up to 1500 daily. Bombers are more effective vs infantry, FPVs are more often used vs vehicles
From indirect evidence it seems around 50-60% of those ineffective, means influenced by EW measures (this can be seen from Magyar reports on particular LOC, and then reports on introduction of he practice on various LOCs), and also there is different wording used in various reports, like "attempted to use" vs "used".
From various interviews, it seems that: there is no such "superiority" in a numbers of drones. Maybe max x2. So I would say 2500-3000 UA drones per day. From those around 50% is supplied by gov and rest by volunteers plus local authorities. Also consensus from various interviews. Example is this: https://youtu.be/22mjWbZ0rkA?feature=shared
See the part when Veres joins them.
Also from this interview it is clear that ru human losses are underestimated/conservative, by various other estimations it would be around 15-20% on average, though it does not matter, since at least the same number of people would return to service after being wounded. So the overall monthly balance (not imcluding new recruits) is less then reported monthly losses.
Still considering an average of 1300 + 200 in Kursk, it is 1500 daily. Since we know at least half, but maybe 70% of strikes done with FPVs, while their effectiveness at least 2 to 1 kill, that would require around 1500-2000 of those anyway.
Regarding nuclear doctrine, I am still wondering, if Iran has this techncal wording of not pursuing the "assembly" of nuclear weapons, why would not Ukraine have the same approach? And also why, if many people on UA forums were blabering and begging for this for many years, why Zelenskiy have spoken such a thing only now the first time? And then a few months after reporting a succesful balistic strike for 700+ km? So it could be from one side increasing posturing for major P. that any nuclear threat/strike from his side would not remain unanswered with a couple "garage assembled" thermo nukes directly in his location. On the other hand it is a strategic posturing for the "West", since "pursuing" nuclear weapons, is not the same as making couple in a "garage". Especially with 50+ ICBM launch sites, that are probably being restored anyway. But also in the end of the day, if long term, sanctions or not, Ukraine has also option of good deal with major P., however unrealistic it looks now. For I am sure, knowing now what Ukraine is in the fight, he would be ready to pay a trillion or two to settle peace deal, that turns Ukraine into ally. In the end of the day, this what he did with Chechnya, of course he still needs a measure of military victory to start that type of negotiations. So we will see in the next few weeks the real thing (how it perceived, whether a bluff or not) in terms of West actions, but first signs are suspiciously showing it is all being taken seriously by the West.
Ah, and re:buryats, it was already yesterday mentioned that NKs would be "presented" as buryats, up to a receiving documents. And then a few seemingly legitimate korean accounts confirmed in twitter that they hear korean language on the video. And come to think of it, how so many "new" buryats suddenly in buryatia? Considering their unproportionally active "use" since the first days of war?
And re:Kruhlyakivka reports are saying they were driven away and that last week, but continue efforts north of place and somewhat to the south too. And "Timur" is not only UAV, because also "Brotherhood" company mentioned, which is quite interesting spec-ops unit of quite dedicated people. And "Kraken" and "Artan" working north of Lyptsy with some success, which is quite a positive turn to see after all those "maritime" efforts.
You bring up valid points. I as well hope the two are connected, testing of Ukrainian ballistic missile as well as a possibly nuclear program has already been in the works. If indeed this are true then what Zelensky said is meaningful. Otherwise he just made Ukraine much less secure with his statements. I like to think indeed there has been a program all along
Sorry, but i dont buy figures from Khortytsia official. They register 1400 FPV ru attacks daily in their sector only? It is beyond my mind.
Ru application at 400-500 pieces daily was reported by Kovalenko - thats very reliable source as for me. He publishes such reports twice a month and that can be easily checked in his TG channel.
ZSU application figures are not easy to find, but on most direction FPV superiority/sometimes even supremacy reported, so my estimations are by 1000 fpvs, which makes incredible 300k yearly. It is splitted between state/volunteers and local authorities by 50/50 or even 40/60. So, noway there is 1kk state drones, maybe just on paper in form of future contracts or some stats manipulation (like with 1billion trees)
Read very carefully that channel and reports, there are several various reports, they all about various things, times of the day and sectors.
Kovalenko is reliable, but reads same as you and me.
The report I am referred to says "as per GenStab-U" the number of "used for stikes more then 1400 one way drones".
While below, Khortytsia report says, "the enemy made 375 strikes with one way drones".
Khortytsia sector accounts for around 70% of active engagements. See the numbers of personnel and equipment affected: https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/1499
So where could come such huge difference? Kursk? No way. It is the difference between attempts to use and strikes. So there is around 1500 attempts and 500 strikes. So all matches with Kovalenko.
You may also find there other interseting numbers, like the number of KABs and number of engagements.
From that you will see a huge number of KABs used in Sumy/Kursk region, around 65% of all KABs used. Considering the total number of KABs remained the same all around 100, up to 150 per day. This is good relief of pressure from Chasic, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, etc.
Then there is around 40 combat engagements every day in Kursk and similar directions. Which is on par with most intensive directions of Donbass.
Only around 10-15% of all artillery shells is used in Kursk direction.
We have no idea how are these figures counted is FPV surpressed by EWS counted or not? Who counts an FPV in case it falls in visual contact by 2/3/4 combat units?))
I think in terms of money, physical ability to produce, logistics, import operations etc. Dont forget Chinese export ban: no kits, no drones are available for free export. So it doesnt make lives of FPV producers more easy.
Conclusion: No way Ze figures are correct. They should be divided minimum by 2, rather by 3.
I have no idea if Zelenskiy numbers are correct or not, there are too many factors and nuances of wording. But I am for using as precise arguments as available. Because otherwise using the term "lies" is too ambitious. And assuming lies in any statement, should only come from reading it carefully. So even ru spokesmen avoid using lies, unless it is critical. They are twisting the truth, yes, but lies is altogether different realm.
In a system handling of lies and twisted truths requires completely different process.
For example NK "buryats" seems to be lies, but that comes only second hand. We never know how it was formulated intially, for example, it could have been buryatian battalions, which means nothing, or it could mean that name of batallion will include the word buryatian. And it is second hand assumption, that buryatian batallion consists of buryats.
So this is a basic scheme for "twisting the truth", speaking in a way that reflects truth, but people from your wording assume completely different thing. And you know it, that is why it is "twisting the truth". Although it still remains the truth.
Plans could not be data, and not verifiable or anything. Data is only what has happened. So he is all free to have fantasies, and that would not be lies.
However, for the "trees plan", unfortunatelly many people have not went to even check it once. It was already several years before that claim where a number of 300 mln per year was achieved as planted. So declared planned number was just 10% higher then that maximum. Of course this has not happened, since fantasies need to be supported with action to become reality. But still I was chuckling with all the people discussing, being very lazy actually.
I dont understand why Territorial Defence Brigades are still a thing. Everybody, and most of all TDB members, keep saying they are too lightly equipped. I guess there is nothing to understand.
I get that transferring their personals to conventional land brigades wont magically create heavy infantry weapons but at least it would allow to move some of the fighter toward combat capable units. And help with the manpower shortage of army brigades.
Then again, if it is to just waste their lives in no step back defence and pointless offensives ...
If there are more people then weapons in a brigade you can periodically rotate the personnel manning those weapons. Put those underarmed people in a separate brigade and do rotation that way and you've just killed them.
Teritorial brigades were a paper organization which was treated as real from the autumn of 2022. They recieved some officers and weapons, support elements, etc.
The personnel was always low grade and never wanted to serve în line units. They protested really hard în 2022 when they were moved from the interior of the country to the frontline.
Re: nukes in Ukraine--I recall that in conformance with the Lisbon Protocol, Ukraine transferred all of its Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil to Russia. I was working for the Dept. of Energy then [and later its semi-independent agency, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)]. I recall reports supposedly indicating that all nuclear material in Ukraine was transferred to Russia, that much if not most of the bare metal, which came from the decommissioining of Soviet nuclear weapons in accordance with nuclear arms control treaties, was sent to the U.S. for disposal in the sense that it was turned into non-weapons grade metal (mostly Plutonium-239). There were plans within DOE for contracting with comercial nuclear power generation facilities to accept "blended metal," that would require some reconfiguration of commercial nuclear facility electrical generation to accommodate the physical (nuclear) characteristics of Pu-239 compared with U-235, the primary uranium isotope used as reactor fuel. I don't know to what extent that these plans were implemented; I didn't work in the nuclear power generating business while at DOE/NNSA.
Assuming that currently Ukraine has no nuclear weapons from the Soviet era "in hiding," and no "bare" nuclear metal on hand, I don't see how Ukraine can construct even a low-tech nuclear weapon in the short term, especially in the midst of the current war. Recovering nuclear metal, specifically Pu-239, from a commerical nuclear reactor requires significant infrastructure that I don't think the Ukrainians have. Also, the funding for such activities is also very significant. I perceive that Ukraine has the technical expertise to do so, but all of this takes time in addition to facilities development and the associated required funding.
The cynic in me observes that the bottom line lesson that I take from all of this is that nations with viable nuclear weapons do not get invaded by other nations. So much for nuclear non-proliferation. Russia now is teaching the world this vital principle!
Thank you for this interesting post. As far as having nuclear weapons is concerned, for deterrence, it's not enough to have them. A country needs to have enough of them, together with reliable and diverse delivery systems. Most importantly, it needs a doctrine and procedures. Russia can absorb quite a few short range (100s of km) nukes because that would give them freedom to nuke every town and city in Ukraine. There is exactly 0 possibility of any major state in the world, including the Chinese, tolerating the UA having any nuclear warheads.
If there were a perceived significant capability that Ukraine could deploy even a low tech nuclear weapon successfully to attack, for example, Moscow, this in itself might be an effective deterrent. Having one or even a few nuclear weapons available to Ukraine and having Ukraine in the midst of a near military defeat to threaten Russia might work. Of course, such a drastic action would demonstrate Ukraine's desperation in apocalyptic circumstances (annihilation and surrender). I am not suggesting that we should want this condition (nukes in Ukraine) to occur.
When I read of Zelensky's plan which suggested that Ukraine could develop nuclear weapons, but it would be better to allow Ukraine to join NATO and rely upon collective defense, I thought that this smacked of incipient desperation and that this was Zelensky's implied threat to everybody, not just to Russia. This is not nuclear deterrence itself, but a semi-subtle potential nuclear-use threat based upon desperation. I think it is a bluff. President Zelensky may have taken a page from the Putin nuclear bluff playbook.
This will be a death sentence for Ukraine. US will wash its hands because Ukraine is a rogue state who uses nuclear bombs.
There will be sanctions instead of delivery of weapons. All Ukrainian borders will be closed and the Ukrainian will be left alone.
A nuclear device not delivered will also not help Ukraine. Rusia will push forward because a strike will doom Ukraine. NATO will be jittery and will force Ukraine to negociate a peace which will include de-nuclearization.
Why hundreds? Millions of warheads! A nuke on every fpv drone! When it comes to fantasy I prefer Tolkien. LOTR is far more realistic than hundreds of nukes on shitty cessna drones, built by a country that has no money and can't produce an artillery shell.
The thing though is Ukraine doesnt need that many strategic nukes at least in the beginning. Even a few dozen or so strategic thermonuclear weapons would be enough to level cities like Moscow, St Petersburg. That would be a strategic deterrent.
You don't need an H-bomb. Something along the lines of a gun-type uranium bomb (a fission bomb)--a Hiroshima redux--even at 10-20 kilotons would decimate any Russian city (... any city). Of course delivering a gun-type bomb is a whole different challenge in itself! Note that the U.S. never tested the gun type weapon at White Sands, NM. They didn't need too; they knew it would work!
I am a little confused--it's in the morning and I haven't had my 1st cup of coffee yet **LOL**--but I re-read my aforementioned comments. I did not write the expression, "strategic thermonuclear weapons."
I think we have to be careful if Russian authorities read this blog. **LOL** The issue is a bit more complex, but discussing it runs into potentially classified information which I don't have in regard to details. Besides, being retired I am way out of date regarding this stuff, Deo gratias!
I was not a weaponeer when I worked for DOE/NNSA, but worked in safety of facilities wrt radioactive materials including "that kind of stuff." I have a M.S. in nuclear engineering, specializing in occupational/environmental radiation protection engineering & health physics. Nuke E's normally aren't designers/builders of weapons. Mostly into safety and criticality control, the latter which is a particular specialty that I don't have, but of which I used to know a little ... just enough to be dangerous! **ROFLOL**
I have zero credentials on the topic, so I can run my mouth and if I land on something sensitive, well, billions of people have the same clearance level as myself, so how sensitive is it, really?
Without a reliable delivery system (read: ballistic missiles), any discussion about nuclear weapons is just posturing. I would guess that Ukraine would need almost a year before being able to build a nuclear weapon if they decided to do that today - they still have enough know-how since the Soviet era.
It's a sad lesson to humanity that no nuclear-armed country has been invaded (the Kursk incursion is not a major invasion, in my opinion). And the lesson from Russian invasion to Ukraine will be "Never throw away your nuclear weapons".
Ah, by the way, from ru publications it seems they were concerned about several nuclear facilities in UA already long time ago and made specific steps to control those. Thus includes Chornobyl storage for nuclear waste (was under control in the first days of war), Zaporizhya nuclear storage (is under control now), Kharkiv nuclear research facilities (bombed). So it is quite strange to hear major P. comments that, "if we get to know about some steps towards nuclear weapons, we will take steps". They were already taken and continue to be taken. So they take the matter seriously. This is not so much about war effort or effects, but about "elites personal safety".
The facilities you mentioned are public locations where Ukraine would never base their nuclear program i.e the Russians have nothing in that regard. Last place would be anywhere in Kharkiv since its so close to the Ru border. I’d count more on Odessa, Lviv, Kyiv and Kyiv Institute of Nuclear Research, Pervomaisk where all the silos such areas. And the Russians know this. Russia knows if there is a Ukr nuclear program they have nothing on it yet
I remember back in the late 2000s Ukraine still had highly enriched uranium. IIRC Yanukovych gave some of it up since his goal was to demilitarize Ukraine for an eventual Russian take over. As well in 2014 a Ukrainian senior officer publicly stated Ukraine would need to have nuclear weapons. And this officer was reprimanded. Every country has state secrets, secret facilities, and a lot have secret weapons programs. It wouldnt be out of the realm of possibility that there has been a program for a long time since 2014 to re-nuclearize even if the funding hasnt been sufficient.
Ukraine inherited a lot of nuclear weaponry, test data and human resource from the Soviet Union. And this knowledge included/s how to produce such weaponry rapidly and discreetly. I wouldnt be quick to conclude its not possible in the same way I wouldnt be quick to conclude they do have a program.
I would guess that Ukraine would be able to build a new fission weapon in a year after a decision was taken, based on the know-how since the Soviet era. Of course, this presupposes a reliable weapons delivery platform first (ballistic missile)
Indeed!! if you go online and look into publicly available data on nuclear weapons testing. Countries like France, USA, Russia/Ukraine iirc Sweden as well have enormous empirical data on developing nuclear weapons, including building them discreetly and rapidly. They really do have a leg up. My question is how organized are the Ukrainians today. Looking at how Zelensky was talking I really really hope he wasnt running his mouth on a program that just started because that would be a huge blunder.
1.) Yeah I agree some of the figures are really made up. if Ukraine was really producing 1,000,000 FPVs a year or at that rate, there would be a serious shift on the battlefield for them which is not the case. I dont even think the West has supplied 1,000,000 mortar shells to Ukraine in a single year. With 1,000,000 FPVs they could seriously harm Russian infantry even when you factor in those drones that miss.
2.) Spot on, if Zelensky said all those things about Nukes without Ukraine either being far along a comprehensive nuclear rearmament program, or even having functioning nuclear warheads, then He committed a tremendous blunder and needs to resign. As you've stated, it would be one of the most foolish things ever to threaten rearming with nukes if you dont either have them already or having gone so far into your nuke program no one can stop you.
3.) For delivery systems, ballistic missiles sound quite compelling, as well as supersonic cruise missiles since those are very difficult for Soviet AD systems to intercept. I wonder though with how Ukraine has been able to hit some facilities in Russia. I suspect it hasnt just been Neptune or the common drones but possibly its also been testing of their homegrown ballistic missile program. But this is just an assumption.
4.) If I were Zelensky I would find a country in the middle east, Qatar, Saudi, whichever country is willing to invest in a Ukrainian ballistic missile program in exchange for a supply of such systems. Qatar historically has been keen. They could pump in the right amount of money and ofcourse this would have positive impacts for a Ukrainian nuke program as well in regards to delivery systems.
Otherwise thank you for the write up. I really would be disappointed if Zelensky was just rattling about nukes.
Thanks for the update. Regarding the NK. That may or may not be the case. Kim has sent his people to slavery work to get income, so why not as soldiers? Cannot see him refusing it for the right amount of money. But whether Putin thinks it is cost effecient to pay or not is another question. But I notice Mark Rutte wasnt yet trusting this to be true, so it may not be. Regarding the overall situation it really doesnt look good. A litany of loss and a lack of victories, and the Russian attacks on the slips in the Black Sea and its ports is not good.
For what's it worth, WSJ reporter Laurence Norman tweeted this:
"He [Zelensky] wasn’t just misunderstood. I was there. His words were completely misread by a few media organisations. He made no threat to develop nuclear weapons. He explained why Ukraine wants NATO as a security guarantee."
Of course it is understandable. Heck, we all are 'flipping out' about 'the West' doing nothing serious to help Ukraine, for years already.
Point is: in that 'the West', it is expected a statesman in his position to keep himself under control, and - for example - not go discussing nukes with journos in the public.
If Zelensky proves unable to do so... well, he must not wonder why 'the West' does not want him as a member in its 'exclusive club'.
His job is also to channel the anger and frustration of his constituents. Seems to me the fact that Biden now backs a promise of NATO membership makes this look more like calculated brinkmanship.
People do not want dictatorships nor absolutist governments and history is filled with tyrants that got their heads chopped off. After communism ended in russia capitalists were able to resuscitate authoritarianism by moving capitals to places like china and russia, seeking higher yields from cheap labour (slavery) and low taxation systems, giving crumbs to people in exchange for them tolerating their greed. Kind of Reagan's wet dream... It won't be long before people in china get sick of working 70 hours a week and start overthrowing their government. And it won't be peaceful.. That is why they have the most colossal propaganda and repressin system in human history. They are a pressure cooker and CCP knows it well. People have always been willing to fight for their freedom. Ending the war with russia's victory is only for putin's benefit, no one else. Your agenda is crystal clear, just so you know.
Sadly, history of humanity is also full of tyrants that lived long, happy lives. It's also full of examples of tyrants being replaced by even worse tyrants.
Well, regarding nukes. Not any data or serious analysis.
But we were casually chatting with friends few times, something maybe even 6-12 month ago. Even at that point it were clear we're already lost in infrastructure and facilities over half a trillion $ due to war destruction. Not even counting lives or lost profit to economy and prosperity.
EU with US are giving us some money, yes. But only a fraction both from what is needed to fight the war, or fraction from what was lost. And even then all mighty and rich of the richest US could allow itself just to sit and wait half a year not providing war material, playing internal politics.
If we're not expecting to have serious (or any) help from US, maybe we would be able to change stance with PRC & Iran & Africa Countries etc. They wouldn't need to go against us just because US.
And, in mid/long term, getting nuke with help of this new connections would cost us just a fraction of what was lost. But capable of preventing future wars.
Even more so, it could be quicker and more realistic option than: reforming GenShtab-U, firing all that 'faggot' generals, and getting invite to NATO (like never)
While what you describe is correct I would not bet against Fedorov lying anyway.
Won't be surprised to read the day Ukrainian lines collapse and the entirety of this fucking war is for nothing. Am I exaggerating? Of course I know that, I can't predict the future. But at this point, unless something big happens (enough to even impress you Tom), then this whole war was for fucking nothing.
Not quite nothing. If the Ukrainians are steady in their resolve to fight they will have caused the Russians great expense and loss of life, difficulty in trusting even a quisling regime in Ukraine and the problem of much, much better preparation by the intended victims of their next conquest. They will have control of Ukrainian resources and the fearsome reputation of ruthless victors and possible leadership of the BRICS - but they will have paid a price too
They can refill their ranks easily by conscription on occupied territory. Unlike Ukraine they will not hesitate to grab as much people as they want.
They would have problems in trusting those recruits. The German army of 1914 had difficulty in trusting its Alsatians, one of whom, Robert Schumann, went on to become Prime Minister of France.
I am not saying that the Russians would not be happy with the outcome, just that they would have paid a price. The Ukrainian resistance would not have been ‘for nothing’
Ukraine will become something like Belarus. Close economic integration, no oligarchs, few liberties.
Dream more
"Unlike Ukraine they will not hesitate to grab as much people as they want."
Strange, that you never saw any of effectively hundreds videos of ordinary UA males caught in a daylight on the streets and forced to the front. Here are some fresh ones:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/141263
https://t.me/ASupersharij/33186
https://t.me/ASupersharij/33302
BTW, today a local activist, who was helping authorities to grab people to army in Odessa, someone Gennadiy Beybutyan (ethnic Armenian, what an irony) what found dead, shot with 12 bullets. A good example for the UA people what to do with "recruiters".
Can't bother to answer someone with nickname "Tupoloev16". Get lost moron
Those efforts are still sporadic, not systematic, and often ending up in bribes and similar. Most of the male population of various ages unaffected. So far mobilization is simply not working in any smart way, with stupid things happening mostly. Potential on both sides is still many times more that was manifested already. So far it rather looks that war would continue to escalate, no resolution in sight and more forces would be involved. The only question is what would become eventually limiting factor. Technology, material resources or people, those all has an untapped potential.
I agree that the potential for mobilisation is huge, still it's obvious that people in both countries are reluctant to go to the front.
Hopefully, MAGA will win and the war will end in 2025 for the benefit of ordinary people in both countries.
Not likely, firstly it is not known what would be the policy. Secondly, it is highly likely a period of huge internal turbulence would follow. The US internal disagreements could reach such extent, that external involvements in all respects would be scaled down. Also EU has a huge potential considering their direct interest in not only settling this, but doing in a way that restores economic flows. And most probaly UA will do anything to prevent that, and keep EU supporting war effort. This winter ru most likely will bomb UA infrastructure, and industry into oblivion, and millions of people will experience a seriuos amount of suffering. Response would be back to ru oil refineries, ports, electricity, industry, all of which was temporarily stopped.
A decent human being would hope that Putin would die of natural causes, not wish another leader with authoritarian tendencies be elected. But that's not you, is it?
get lost, comrade ruZZian bot.
Yawn. I've heard this line from people like you since the first week of the war. Yet, somehow, despite your superb forecasting skills which are obviously far beyond the means of us mere mortals, you are proved wrong time and time again. So Tom despises the Ukrainian high command? That's his thing. He does it very well. Can you perhaps imagine what he would be like if he were Russian? Because they are far worse. Give yourself (and us) a break from your hand-wringing. It serves no purpose.
I rarely see Tom predict much, but ok. I am sure he has FAU-lederen, as everybody else has. Yes, the Russians are probably worse, but shouldnt Gen-Stab U try to be better? And to improve?
Absolutely. That what I meant I said he does his criticism very well. Apologies for not making that clearer.
Tom has never forecast anything, you are bull shitting
Person you are replying to did not claim Tom was forecasting. He's describing how this "so all this was for nothing" is just reheated cabbage from the first days of the war.
PS. Seems to me there isn't much disagreement really, so we can be less toxic to each other. (Myself included)
Take it down, mate. I didn't say anything like that. You posted in the wrong place.
Я хочу запитати чи в курсі пан Том що у Подоляка - рідний брат служив у ГРУ росії, і загинув на війні, а у Єрмака, здається тато був також чи то ГРУ чи ФСБ, ну хід думок ви розумієте, це точно не співпадіння*, але простий українець як я має йти в окоп і обличчям ловити ракети, та снаряди, поки у верхівці сидять люди, у яких родичі або зв'язки з кацапам(((
Доповню: мені здається що тут в коментарях сидть і читає половина* генштабу нашого, ну московського точно.
Yes, can confirm - both. Including the part about the GenStab in Moscow reading this blog.
Давайте відверто. Ви би не пішли в окоп навіть якби всі посадовці країни мали ідеальну репутацію. Просто тому що ніколи не станете ризикувати нічим , окрім як заради себе, та (можливо) своєї сім'ї.
Відверто, пішов би, бо у нас українців є одна риса- фаталізм, але моє суспільство розірване на шматки, несправедливою, мобілізацією, одні штурмують сауни з моделями в Куршавелі, винні льохи..... Можу прикладів багато привести, а так, ні я не маю мотивації, в про це чесно кажу, але якщо всі гуртом, то самопожертва не є для українців проблемою, нажаль не для всіх, я відповів відверто без лицемірства вам
Схоже в різних країнах живемо. Там де живу я людина що добровільно йде служити більшістю вважається ідіотом і хворим. Багато хто каже їм про це прямо в лице, інші за спиною. Ці люди також штурмують сауни, купляють інвалідність ітд ітп, якщо мають можливість. Суспільство абсолютно відповідає владній верхівці. І лише кілька мільйонів людей так чи інакше тягнуть все на собі. Ніяке об'єднання тут неможливо, якщо тверезо дивится на це все.
Для прикладу, у Віталія Кличко, він мер Києва, у нього заступник Володимир Бондаренко купив 1 з трьох вищих освіт, він займає місце яке дає бронювання від мобілізації, я не рахую скільки грошей він отримує, бо це як кажуть росіяни:- нищебродство, я сподіваюся ви почули мене, що мене розриває за середини.
>> розриває за середини
- Google Translate?
Я пишу чистою українською, але, якимось чином пости видає з помилками ((( і коли редагую, то показує все вірно, але сам пост опубліковується з граматичними помилками.
Навіть зараз я написав, яким ось, одним словом.
Так, схоже він росіянин, який користується перекладачем.
Thanks for this piece Tom.
Maybe bringing new ideas? What about realizing that fighting like this is playing in VSRF hands and not retreat to the Dnieper? Russians hace Lost huge amounts of bridging equipment and the sheer sized of the river is a magnificent defense line.
And then rebuilt the army and try to advance. Train better troops. Reform the army.
Keep fighting like this only favor the country with most numerous weapons and men.
Is like watching a box Match that hace endured 33 rounds, but one of them still can change gloves and take water as usual and the other is alone with no assistants at all and have their water gone dry.
>> retreat to the Dnieper
- And resettle 15 millions?
Any better ideas that not depend on external players?
The rythm of the advance evidentes a serious point in the capacities of the ZSU.
Why not evacuate now that you can still keep the enemy in a front?
There is nowhere to evacuate 15M
Where do you get the 15M? Why You think that all of them want to leave? Most of eastern Ukraine talk in russian.
Kyev is not the only city. The West have many cities too. Relocate to Lvov?
Defendind succesfully the Dnieper waiting to the collective West to get a longstanding peace looks more real now than pretend that somehow ZSU is going to beat the VSRF in an attrition war.
Again, what happen if the front collapses and Kyev es besieged, and the russians get múltiple crosses over the Dnieper un the chaos of collapse?
If you think being a Russian speaker makes one side with Russia, you're a retard. Which you are.
>> Kyev is not the only city. The West have many cities too. Relocate to Lvov?
- Lviv is small and already overpopulated. Other cities in the Western Ukraine are even smaller.
>> Defendind succesfully the Dnieper
- The river does not help against the glide bombs and missiles.
>> Again, what happen if the front collapses and Kyev es besieged
- Let's wait and see.
>> he russians get múltiple crosses over the Dnieper un the chaos of collapse?
- We've already seen that in 2022. They were unable to supply their front units through the forests of the Northern Ukraine - the perfect cover for guerillas.
Moreover, Dnipro goes through the middle of Kyiv - thus the capital needs to be evacuated as well. To Poland or to Germany? Maybe to UK?
Many people don't want to resettle. Ukrainians în Kupiansk, Kerson and Lyman were free to leave for Ukraine yet they stood put. There were large populations în each of these cities when the Ukrainian Army returned.
Look at population of Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Volchansk. How many happy ukrainians came to greet their “liberators”
Back in 2022 population was mostly influenced by Ze joking about BBQ on May holidays. So, they had not a chance to escape russians moving too fast. Now in 2024 most population runs away from the “russian world”
The population runs from fighting not the russians.
There were still people în Avdeevka who emerged after the fighting.
The people of Pokrovsk didn't leave when the Russians were 10km away. They left when Ukrainian reinforcements arrived and it was clear that the city will be fought over and destroyed.
Any firm facts why are people running/not running away? Or simply manipulations?
How big is population of Bakhmut right now? Avdiivka?
People stay in their homes hoping the war will be stopped right here, 10km away. Just imagine their live: all your savings, all your property is here, in the city. And you have to run away? Where to run to? Where to find a job? Where to find a flat, do i have money for it?
Just make yourself as if you were in such situation
There are civilians în Selidove right now. That's because there are still houses.
While that might sound good in theory, mass withdrawals like that can have disastrous consequences: see what happened to South Vietnamese forces in 1975. If desertion is a problem now, large scale retreat will make it magnitudes worse.
It is indeed difficult to know what to make of the NK story. SK is backing it up but I see that Mark Rutte is unconvinced. If true - if! - it might be a sign of Russian exhaustion in spite of all the bravado.
Your report indicates that sometimes, in spite of absolutely everything, the Ukrainians are still having successes, with Russian forces ‘smashed’. Might we read this as saying that there is still plenty of good leadership on the ground and that this is a war of a hundred daily very brutal skirmishes, where the best leaders can’t be everywhere - and so that the overall result is not far from the best that could be expected from an outnumbered army awaiting fresh supplies from its international friends, who do seem to be about to make another serious effort?
That's the very tragic of the ZSU: there's LOT of skill - at the levels of battalion- and (some of) brigade commanders.
Is no surprise, though. They're accountable: everybody above them - is not.
Point is: the ZSU CAN. It can defeat the Russians. If let to do so.
The way things are: it's holding out DESPITE professional incompetence of its generals.
It maybe not the sign of being exhausted, but maybe because NK soldiers are trained already to some degree, plus less expensive then locals, considering current $20K sign up bonus to ru army. I think they will test it in some smaller numbers, and if works okay, would scale it up.
I don't see how would they use Korean infantry w/o Korean officer corps and so on up the hierarchy. Single-use meat is the only possible option and even then, w/o any chance at communication, or understanding even the most primitive of orders.
But I have to admit I want to watch the inevitable clusterfuck if they try.
NK troops are a poltical bait for NATO to send more weapons. The talk of nuclear weapons is similar.
Should treat this as a bet that no NK troops on the battlefield in the next 2-3 months? Or you are simply saying?
Sure, no NK în the trenches în the next 2-3 months
Just a clarification, if they are found in the field, but say 10km away from the frontline, does it count?
For I remember to keep an eye on your wording. One month past, two month past, Pokrovsk is not taken, next deadline in January. Hope you are also keeping track of your bets and their success.
Pokrovsk bet was about city falling în December January if not reinforced.
The bet for NK troops requires them to be on the frontline, not în the support zone or rear . We must discern between military observers and combat troops.
People who work as a analyst have to be really tough against mental fatigue. All the data and information must be connected to make one clear picture. I know how fun but also demanding this can be. As a long time reader I would suggest, that you should take a week off. War does not have a break, but no one can expect that some people can deliver some high quality information without any breaks. I think you deserve it.
Thx. I'll certainly be away in November. Perhaps I'll take a week off before, too.
You’ll be missed though
Great, that implies some surprise is happening.
Please don't take the US election week off....
A well deserved break!
Agreed, excellent suggestion
Щодо підрахунків FPV.
Один мій друг (давно і добре знаю) за один робочий день збирає 7-10 FPV (тестують системи інші працівники), на лінії збірки їх працює 6 осіб. Отже тільки одна з компаній виготовляє 60 FPV/день.
А Зеленський - тільки клоун, що може вивчити і виразно декламувати текст.
Sternenko, which would represent not more then 20% of all volunteer volumes buys on average 200 UAVs per day. With 100K+ total already. So volunteers buy at least 1000 per day.
I do hope so. That's then raising my guess to 365,000 (instead of 150,000-200,000).
Well add 1000 from volunteers and 1000 from gov, 50/50.
From what I read from Fedorov, he says: this year would be "produced" more 1 mln. of drones, this means produced whether it was bought by gov of volunteers.
And then continues to say we have "contracted" for hundreds of thousands of drones. Which reads to me they were all the year much behind their own plan because of beuracracy and stupidity. But then "volunteers have saved our asses and ZSU, and we are catching up (probably next year)".
Oh yes. Now you and me are 'speaking the same language'.
They might have contracted '1 million (+)'. That's where I'm going to promptly agree.
Shouldn't mean they've really got as many and pressed them into service.
In 1kk drones on paper i would beleive as well. Strange, that “only 1kk” was contracted. 2kk sounds much better and scarrier.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/amp/news-zelenskyy-milʹyon-droniv/33158387.html
Ze was more precise as Fedorov: 1kk from the state were not only produced, but delivered to ZSU! I imagine drone operators in happy orgasm launching dozens of FPVs daily
Indeed
Sternenko’s foundation is the only one able to trade/manipulate explosives. So in FPV segment his share is far bigger as 20%.
With all my respect to you, you are too optimistic in this issue.
Just simple maths: 1kk drones from state+0,5kk other sources=1,5kk drones in total. Lets put their effectivity at 25%, so that means 375000 targets hit. Lets make 3 fpvs per target - 125000 kills, incl vehicles and manpower. Really?
Plus Mavics, bombers and other striking drones. Come on, with such figures ZSU should have been assaulting Moscow, not retreating from Vuhledar.
And the last, but not the least:
In Aug-Sep 2024 Procurement Agency (main MoD contractor) had fcked up to supply ZSU with 3000 Mavic 3T, they have managed to buy…50(!). “No money” reason.
I do not understand what you are saying, either you are using not precise words, or I am missing something.
Sternenko foundation simply collects money. It is producers that produce UAVs or manipulate explosives (certified). Or ZSU units for that matter. The market prints the forms for ZSU often, and they would assemble it with explosive and all.
Example is this: https://x.com/rs_ssw/status/1845756527782621390
Maybe you are mixing up with Magyar unit? They are all ZSU
https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1846998948927430993
Let us not meddle with annual numbers, as I said for daily 1500 KIA + WIA how much you need? Let us say there is 4000 artillery shells used per day. How many FPVs then? Minimum 2000. Most likely 2500, maximum 3000. Per day.
I have ment that due to that fact that Sternenko foundation has permission to handle with explosives, they are more focused on FPV than any other volunteer foundation, like Fenix, Prytula, Klitchko etc because he is able to make end product incl payload or to supply ready to make product to ZSU (standartized payloads for FPVs are our dream by now, thats why payload is extremely important). Magyar is also focused on FPVs and EWS systems. So, my estimation: these 2 guys make together like 50+% of all donations for FPVs.
FPVs are more precise than a shell or gun, so you need 2, max 3 FPVs per kill. Amoung kill options i’d mention FPVs, bombers, artillery, guns, mines, air strikes. So even if FPVs share is 30%, you need up to 1500 daily. Bombers are more effective vs infantry, FPVs are more often used vs vehicles
Dear Tom, for months, daily usage of ru FPV drones is around 1400-1500 per day, as can be seen from these reports:
https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/1497
From indirect evidence it seems around 50-60% of those ineffective, means influenced by EW measures (this can be seen from Magyar reports on particular LOC, and then reports on introduction of he practice on various LOCs), and also there is different wording used in various reports, like "attempted to use" vs "used".
From various interviews, it seems that: there is no such "superiority" in a numbers of drones. Maybe max x2. So I would say 2500-3000 UA drones per day. From those around 50% is supplied by gov and rest by volunteers plus local authorities. Also consensus from various interviews. Example is this: https://youtu.be/22mjWbZ0rkA?feature=shared
See the part when Veres joins them.
Also from this interview it is clear that ru human losses are underestimated/conservative, by various other estimations it would be around 15-20% on average, though it does not matter, since at least the same number of people would return to service after being wounded. So the overall monthly balance (not imcluding new recruits) is less then reported monthly losses.
Still considering an average of 1300 + 200 in Kursk, it is 1500 daily. Since we know at least half, but maybe 70% of strikes done with FPVs, while their effectiveness at least 2 to 1 kill, that would require around 1500-2000 of those anyway.
Regarding nuclear doctrine, I am still wondering, if Iran has this techncal wording of not pursuing the "assembly" of nuclear weapons, why would not Ukraine have the same approach? And also why, if many people on UA forums were blabering and begging for this for many years, why Zelenskiy have spoken such a thing only now the first time? And then a few months after reporting a succesful balistic strike for 700+ km? So it could be from one side increasing posturing for major P. that any nuclear threat/strike from his side would not remain unanswered with a couple "garage assembled" thermo nukes directly in his location. On the other hand it is a strategic posturing for the "West", since "pursuing" nuclear weapons, is not the same as making couple in a "garage". Especially with 50+ ICBM launch sites, that are probably being restored anyway. But also in the end of the day, if long term, sanctions or not, Ukraine has also option of good deal with major P., however unrealistic it looks now. For I am sure, knowing now what Ukraine is in the fight, he would be ready to pay a trillion or two to settle peace deal, that turns Ukraine into ally. In the end of the day, this what he did with Chechnya, of course he still needs a measure of military victory to start that type of negotiations. So we will see in the next few weeks the real thing (how it perceived, whether a bluff or not) in terms of West actions, but first signs are suspiciously showing it is all being taken seriously by the West.
Ah, and re:buryats, it was already yesterday mentioned that NKs would be "presented" as buryats, up to a receiving documents. And then a few seemingly legitimate korean accounts confirmed in twitter that they hear korean language on the video. And come to think of it, how so many "new" buryats suddenly in buryatia? Considering their unproportionally active "use" since the first days of war?
Skillful and lucky RU soldier evades hits of 6 UA FPVs:
https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/19026
The word is that he survived 8 drones in total, suffering just light injury.
I posted this to outline that efficiency/hit rate of FPVs from both sides is inflated.
And re:Kruhlyakivka reports are saying they were driven away and that last week, but continue efforts north of place and somewhat to the south too. And "Timur" is not only UAV, because also "Brotherhood" company mentioned, which is quite interesting spec-ops unit of quite dedicated people. And "Kraken" and "Artan" working north of Lyptsy with some success, which is quite a positive turn to see after all those "maritime" efforts.
Again recommend this recap: https://youtu.be/t06F2FB_lMo
You bring up valid points. I as well hope the two are connected, testing of Ukrainian ballistic missile as well as a possibly nuclear program has already been in the works. If indeed this are true then what Zelensky said is meaningful. Otherwise he just made Ukraine much less secure with his statements. I like to think indeed there has been a program all along
Sorry, but i dont buy figures from Khortytsia official. They register 1400 FPV ru attacks daily in their sector only? It is beyond my mind.
Ru application at 400-500 pieces daily was reported by Kovalenko - thats very reliable source as for me. He publishes such reports twice a month and that can be easily checked in his TG channel.
ZSU application figures are not easy to find, but on most direction FPV superiority/sometimes even supremacy reported, so my estimations are by 1000 fpvs, which makes incredible 300k yearly. It is splitted between state/volunteers and local authorities by 50/50 or even 40/60. So, noway there is 1kk state drones, maybe just on paper in form of future contracts or some stats manipulation (like with 1billion trees)
Read very carefully that channel and reports, there are several various reports, they all about various things, times of the day and sectors.
Kovalenko is reliable, but reads same as you and me.
The report I am referred to says "as per GenStab-U" the number of "used for stikes more then 1400 one way drones".
While below, Khortytsia report says, "the enemy made 375 strikes with one way drones".
Khortytsia sector accounts for around 70% of active engagements. See the numbers of personnel and equipment affected: https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/1499
So where could come such huge difference? Kursk? No way. It is the difference between attempts to use and strikes. So there is around 1500 attempts and 500 strikes. So all matches with Kovalenko.
You may also find there other interseting numbers, like the number of KABs and number of engagements.
From that you will see a huge number of KABs used in Sumy/Kursk region, around 65% of all KABs used. Considering the total number of KABs remained the same all around 100, up to 150 per day. This is good relief of pressure from Chasic, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, etc.
Then there is around 40 combat engagements every day in Kursk and similar directions. Which is on par with most intensive directions of Donbass.
Only around 10-15% of all artillery shells is used in Kursk direction.
We have no idea how are these figures counted is FPV surpressed by EWS counted or not? Who counts an FPV in case it falls in visual contact by 2/3/4 combat units?))
I think in terms of money, physical ability to produce, logistics, import operations etc. Dont forget Chinese export ban: no kits, no drones are available for free export. So it doesnt make lives of FPV producers more easy.
Conclusion: No way Ze figures are correct. They should be divided minimum by 2, rather by 3.
I have no idea if Zelenskiy numbers are correct or not, there are too many factors and nuances of wording. But I am for using as precise arguments as available. Because otherwise using the term "lies" is too ambitious. And assuming lies in any statement, should only come from reading it carefully. So even ru spokesmen avoid using lies, unless it is critical. They are twisting the truth, yes, but lies is altogether different realm.
In a system handling of lies and twisted truths requires completely different process.
For example NK "buryats" seems to be lies, but that comes only second hand. We never know how it was formulated intially, for example, it could have been buryatian battalions, which means nothing, or it could mean that name of batallion will include the word buryatian. And it is second hand assumption, that buryatian batallion consists of buryats.
So this is a basic scheme for "twisting the truth", speaking in a way that reflects truth, but people from your wording assume completely different thing. And you know it, that is why it is "twisting the truth". Although it still remains the truth.
Lets say “Ze figures are very questionable”. It is not a first time he uses unverified data: back in 2020s he had declared 1kkk trees to plant
https://life.pravda.com.ua/columns/61a72c6d31b60/index.amp
He loves cheap PR and is very sensitive for any kind of big figures. Unfortunately most of those end up in oblivion
Oh my, you ARE imprecise in your wording.
Plans could not be data, and not verifiable or anything. Data is only what has happened. So he is all free to have fantasies, and that would not be lies.
However, for the "trees plan", unfortunatelly many people have not went to even check it once. It was already several years before that claim where a number of 300 mln per year was achieved as planted. So declared planned number was just 10% higher then that maximum. Of course this has not happened, since fantasies need to be supported with action to become reality. But still I was chuckling with all the people discussing, being very lazy actually.
Anyway, here is what came out of it, though honestly have no time to cross-check: https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/06/21/infografika/suspilstvo/zelena-ukrayina-skilky-lisiv-vidnovlyuyut-shhoroku-ta-yak-prosuvayetsya-vysadka-milyarda-derev
I dont understand why Territorial Defence Brigades are still a thing. Everybody, and most of all TDB members, keep saying they are too lightly equipped. I guess there is nothing to understand.
I get that transferring their personals to conventional land brigades wont magically create heavy infantry weapons but at least it would allow to move some of the fighter toward combat capable units. And help with the manpower shortage of army brigades.
Then again, if it is to just waste their lives in no step back defence and pointless offensives ...
If there are more people then weapons in a brigade you can periodically rotate the personnel manning those weapons. Put those underarmed people in a separate brigade and do rotation that way and you've just killed them.
Teritorial brigades were a paper organization which was treated as real from the autumn of 2022. They recieved some officers and weapons, support elements, etc.
The personnel was always low grade and never wanted to serve în line units. They protested really hard în 2022 when they were moved from the interior of the country to the frontline.
All of this seems to me to be a real mess.
Re: nukes in Ukraine--I recall that in conformance with the Lisbon Protocol, Ukraine transferred all of its Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil to Russia. I was working for the Dept. of Energy then [and later its semi-independent agency, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)]. I recall reports supposedly indicating that all nuclear material in Ukraine was transferred to Russia, that much if not most of the bare metal, which came from the decommissioining of Soviet nuclear weapons in accordance with nuclear arms control treaties, was sent to the U.S. for disposal in the sense that it was turned into non-weapons grade metal (mostly Plutonium-239). There were plans within DOE for contracting with comercial nuclear power generation facilities to accept "blended metal," that would require some reconfiguration of commercial nuclear facility electrical generation to accommodate the physical (nuclear) characteristics of Pu-239 compared with U-235, the primary uranium isotope used as reactor fuel. I don't know to what extent that these plans were implemented; I didn't work in the nuclear power generating business while at DOE/NNSA.
Assuming that currently Ukraine has no nuclear weapons from the Soviet era "in hiding," and no "bare" nuclear metal on hand, I don't see how Ukraine can construct even a low-tech nuclear weapon in the short term, especially in the midst of the current war. Recovering nuclear metal, specifically Pu-239, from a commerical nuclear reactor requires significant infrastructure that I don't think the Ukrainians have. Also, the funding for such activities is also very significant. I perceive that Ukraine has the technical expertise to do so, but all of this takes time in addition to facilities development and the associated required funding.
The cynic in me observes that the bottom line lesson that I take from all of this is that nations with viable nuclear weapons do not get invaded by other nations. So much for nuclear non-proliferation. Russia now is teaching the world this vital principle!
Thank you for this interesting post. As far as having nuclear weapons is concerned, for deterrence, it's not enough to have them. A country needs to have enough of them, together with reliable and diverse delivery systems. Most importantly, it needs a doctrine and procedures. Russia can absorb quite a few short range (100s of km) nukes because that would give them freedom to nuke every town and city in Ukraine. There is exactly 0 possibility of any major state in the world, including the Chinese, tolerating the UA having any nuclear warheads.
>> Russia can absorb quite a few short range (100s of km) nukes
- Yes, still a hundred of nuke-enabled long-range drones would be real means of deterrence.
If there were a perceived significant capability that Ukraine could deploy even a low tech nuclear weapon successfully to attack, for example, Moscow, this in itself might be an effective deterrent. Having one or even a few nuclear weapons available to Ukraine and having Ukraine in the midst of a near military defeat to threaten Russia might work. Of course, such a drastic action would demonstrate Ukraine's desperation in apocalyptic circumstances (annihilation and surrender). I am not suggesting that we should want this condition (nukes in Ukraine) to occur.
When I read of Zelensky's plan which suggested that Ukraine could develop nuclear weapons, but it would be better to allow Ukraine to join NATO and rely upon collective defense, I thought that this smacked of incipient desperation and that this was Zelensky's implied threat to everybody, not just to Russia. This is not nuclear deterrence itself, but a semi-subtle potential nuclear-use threat based upon desperation. I think it is a bluff. President Zelensky may have taken a page from the Putin nuclear bluff playbook.
This will be a death sentence for Ukraine. US will wash its hands because Ukraine is a rogue state who uses nuclear bombs.
There will be sanctions instead of delivery of weapons. All Ukrainian borders will be closed and the Ukrainian will be left alone.
A nuclear device not delivered will also not help Ukraine. Rusia will push forward because a strike will doom Ukraine. NATO will be jittery and will force Ukraine to negociate a peace which will include de-nuclearization.
As far as I see half of that already happens
Why hundreds? Millions of warheads! A nuke on every fpv drone! When it comes to fantasy I prefer Tolkien. LOTR is far more realistic than hundreds of nukes on shitty cessna drones, built by a country that has no money and can't produce an artillery shell.
The thing though is Ukraine doesnt need that many strategic nukes at least in the beginning. Even a few dozen or so strategic thermonuclear weapons would be enough to level cities like Moscow, St Petersburg. That would be a strategic deterrent.
A thermonuclear weapon relies on existing and well-tested nuclear bomb for explosives. If you don't have a working nuke, you cannot make an H-bomb.
You don't need an H-bomb. Something along the lines of a gun-type uranium bomb (a fission bomb)--a Hiroshima redux--even at 10-20 kilotons would decimate any Russian city (... any city). Of course delivering a gun-type bomb is a whole different challenge in itself! Note that the U.S. never tested the gun type weapon at White Sands, NM. They didn't need too; they knew it would work!
You wrote "strategic thermonuclear weapons". Those are powerful H-bombs.
I am a little confused--it's in the morning and I haven't had my 1st cup of coffee yet **LOL**--but I re-read my aforementioned comments. I did not write the expression, "strategic thermonuclear weapons."
Boosted fission is still mostly regular nuclear but more compact and in some ways "easier" than regular one. I'm not an expert tho.
I think we have to be careful if Russian authorities read this blog. **LOL** The issue is a bit more complex, but discussing it runs into potentially classified information which I don't have in regard to details. Besides, being retired I am way out of date regarding this stuff, Deo gratias!
I was not a weaponeer when I worked for DOE/NNSA, but worked in safety of facilities wrt radioactive materials including "that kind of stuff." I have a M.S. in nuclear engineering, specializing in occupational/environmental radiation protection engineering & health physics. Nuke E's normally aren't designers/builders of weapons. Mostly into safety and criticality control, the latter which is a particular specialty that I don't have, but of which I used to know a little ... just enough to be dangerous! **ROFLOL**
I have zero credentials on the topic, so I can run my mouth and if I land on something sensitive, well, billions of people have the same clearance level as myself, so how sensitive is it, really?
Without a reliable delivery system (read: ballistic missiles), any discussion about nuclear weapons is just posturing. I would guess that Ukraine would need almost a year before being able to build a nuclear weapon if they decided to do that today - they still have enough know-how since the Soviet era.
It's a sad lesson to humanity that no nuclear-armed country has been invaded (the Kursk incursion is not a major invasion, in my opinion). And the lesson from Russian invasion to Ukraine will be "Never throw away your nuclear weapons".
Ah, by the way, from ru publications it seems they were concerned about several nuclear facilities in UA already long time ago and made specific steps to control those. Thus includes Chornobyl storage for nuclear waste (was under control in the first days of war), Zaporizhya nuclear storage (is under control now), Kharkiv nuclear research facilities (bombed). So it is quite strange to hear major P. comments that, "if we get to know about some steps towards nuclear weapons, we will take steps". They were already taken and continue to be taken. So they take the matter seriously. This is not so much about war effort or effects, but about "elites personal safety".
The facilities you mentioned are public locations where Ukraine would never base their nuclear program i.e the Russians have nothing in that regard. Last place would be anywhere in Kharkiv since its so close to the Ru border. I’d count more on Odessa, Lviv, Kyiv and Kyiv Institute of Nuclear Research, Pervomaisk where all the silos such areas. And the Russians know this. Russia knows if there is a Ukr nuclear program they have nothing on it yet
I remember back in the late 2000s Ukraine still had highly enriched uranium. IIRC Yanukovych gave some of it up since his goal was to demilitarize Ukraine for an eventual Russian take over. As well in 2014 a Ukrainian senior officer publicly stated Ukraine would need to have nuclear weapons. And this officer was reprimanded. Every country has state secrets, secret facilities, and a lot have secret weapons programs. It wouldnt be out of the realm of possibility that there has been a program for a long time since 2014 to re-nuclearize even if the funding hasnt been sufficient.
Ukraine inherited a lot of nuclear weaponry, test data and human resource from the Soviet Union. And this knowledge included/s how to produce such weaponry rapidly and discreetly. I wouldnt be quick to conclude its not possible in the same way I wouldnt be quick to conclude they do have a program.
I would guess that Ukraine would be able to build a new fission weapon in a year after a decision was taken, based on the know-how since the Soviet era. Of course, this presupposes a reliable weapons delivery platform first (ballistic missile)
Indeed!! if you go online and look into publicly available data on nuclear weapons testing. Countries like France, USA, Russia/Ukraine iirc Sweden as well have enormous empirical data on developing nuclear weapons, including building them discreetly and rapidly. They really do have a leg up. My question is how organized are the Ukrainians today. Looking at how Zelensky was talking I really really hope he wasnt running his mouth on a program that just started because that would be a huge blunder.
1.) Yeah I agree some of the figures are really made up. if Ukraine was really producing 1,000,000 FPVs a year or at that rate, there would be a serious shift on the battlefield for them which is not the case. I dont even think the West has supplied 1,000,000 mortar shells to Ukraine in a single year. With 1,000,000 FPVs they could seriously harm Russian infantry even when you factor in those drones that miss.
2.) Spot on, if Zelensky said all those things about Nukes without Ukraine either being far along a comprehensive nuclear rearmament program, or even having functioning nuclear warheads, then He committed a tremendous blunder and needs to resign. As you've stated, it would be one of the most foolish things ever to threaten rearming with nukes if you dont either have them already or having gone so far into your nuke program no one can stop you.
3.) For delivery systems, ballistic missiles sound quite compelling, as well as supersonic cruise missiles since those are very difficult for Soviet AD systems to intercept. I wonder though with how Ukraine has been able to hit some facilities in Russia. I suspect it hasnt just been Neptune or the common drones but possibly its also been testing of their homegrown ballistic missile program. But this is just an assumption.
4.) If I were Zelensky I would find a country in the middle east, Qatar, Saudi, whichever country is willing to invest in a Ukrainian ballistic missile program in exchange for a supply of such systems. Qatar historically has been keen. They could pump in the right amount of money and ofcourse this would have positive impacts for a Ukrainian nuke program as well in regards to delivery systems.
Otherwise thank you for the write up. I really would be disappointed if Zelensky was just rattling about nukes.
Somebody is reminding me the God Father from the Generation Kill here
Thanks for the update. Regarding the NK. That may or may not be the case. Kim has sent his people to slavery work to get income, so why not as soldiers? Cannot see him refusing it for the right amount of money. But whether Putin thinks it is cost effecient to pay or not is another question. But I notice Mark Rutte wasnt yet trusting this to be true, so it may not be. Regarding the overall situation it really doesnt look good. A litany of loss and a lack of victories, and the Russian attacks on the slips in the Black Sea and its ports is not good.
Getting NK recruits makes all the sense in the world:
1) Russia pays up to 15M rub ($150K) per KiA to their relatives.
2) They got high inflation because of all those money flowing to the population.
3) They have recently allocated extra 1.5 trillion rubles (about $16 billion) expenses for the remaining 2 months of the year.
Thus their recruiting of Russians kills their own economy.
For what's it worth, WSJ reporter Laurence Norman tweeted this:
"He [Zelensky] wasn’t just misunderstood. I was there. His words were completely misread by a few media organisations. He made no threat to develop nuclear weapons. He explained why Ukraine wants NATO as a security guarantee."
https://x.com/laurnorman/status/1846989940955271480
Sure. And I'm in tears over how often all these poor little politicians get misunderstood, or are misquoted...
Politico or not - his frustration with NATO is completely understandable and shared by many Ukrainians who feel abandoned and betrayed by the West.
Of course it is understandable. Heck, we all are 'flipping out' about 'the West' doing nothing serious to help Ukraine, for years already.
Point is: in that 'the West', it is expected a statesman in his position to keep himself under control, and - for example - not go discussing nukes with journos in the public.
If Zelensky proves unable to do so... well, he must not wonder why 'the West' does not want him as a member in its 'exclusive club'.
His job is also to channel the anger and frustration of his constituents. Seems to me the fact that Biden now backs a promise of NATO membership makes this look more like calculated brinkmanship.
People do not want dictatorships nor absolutist governments and history is filled with tyrants that got their heads chopped off. After communism ended in russia capitalists were able to resuscitate authoritarianism by moving capitals to places like china and russia, seeking higher yields from cheap labour (slavery) and low taxation systems, giving crumbs to people in exchange for them tolerating their greed. Kind of Reagan's wet dream... It won't be long before people in china get sick of working 70 hours a week and start overthrowing their government. And it won't be peaceful.. That is why they have the most colossal propaganda and repressin system in human history. They are a pressure cooker and CCP knows it well. People have always been willing to fight for their freedom. Ending the war with russia's victory is only for putin's benefit, no one else. Your agenda is crystal clear, just so you know.
Sadly, history of humanity is also full of tyrants that lived long, happy lives. It's also full of examples of tyrants being replaced by even worse tyrants.
Well, regarding nukes. Not any data or serious analysis.
But we were casually chatting with friends few times, something maybe even 6-12 month ago. Even at that point it were clear we're already lost in infrastructure and facilities over half a trillion $ due to war destruction. Not even counting lives or lost profit to economy and prosperity.
EU with US are giving us some money, yes. But only a fraction both from what is needed to fight the war, or fraction from what was lost. And even then all mighty and rich of the richest US could allow itself just to sit and wait half a year not providing war material, playing internal politics.
If we're not expecting to have serious (or any) help from US, maybe we would be able to change stance with PRC & Iran & Africa Countries etc. They wouldn't need to go against us just because US.
And, in mid/long term, getting nuke with help of this new connections would cost us just a fraction of what was lost. But capable of preventing future wars.
Even more so, it could be quicker and more realistic option than: reforming GenShtab-U, firing all that 'faggot' generals, and getting invite to NATO (like never)
Nonsense. China, Iran, etc are russian allies. They would never support Ukraine.
Thing is, you cannot accomplish anything without reform. Every good plan includes firing "faggot generals" anyway, even the "let's get nuclear" one.