Ukraine War, 16-19 October, 2024

Hello everybody!

Must admit, have seriously considered taking a few days off after working on ‘Dreamland’, few days ago. ‘Joining the dots’ that way is exhausting. Sadly, things didn’t get better ever since: on the contrary, there were several ‘news of the day’. Thus, here I am again.

***

The first piece of news is that – according to the coolest-super-turbo-best-most-amazing general of all the times – North Korea is deploying troops to Ukraine, to fight on the side of Russia.

The mainstream media in ‘the West’ (incl. South Korea) is in uproar, multiple zombie idiots are issuing stern warnings to Pyongyang. ….and at least two videos (here’s one) are meanwhile making circles around the social media, purportedly showing the first North Korean troops receiving VSRF uniforms, and then marching to their training grounds. Indeed, there are satellite photographs interpreted as heavy traffic in the Sergeevka area, which should be the base for North Korean deployment…. Now everybody (and his/her next kin) is expecting the DPRK-troops to enter the battle around 1 November… Indeed: the US journos – usually the same characters that can’t find evidence for the Israelis ever doing anything wrong – have already found sources in South Korea, according to which North Koreans are sending 11,000… sorry, 120,000… nah, sorry: the figure is increasing as I type this… 400,000 (and counting) ‘special forces’ to Russia…

First thing coming to my mind when hearing this was if this was intelligence of similar quality like ‘Russians are not going to invade’; ‘there’s no threat for Kyiv’; ‘there’s no threat for southern Ukraine’; ‘there’s no Surovikin Line, and if: it’s no problem’; ‘We’re going to swim in the Azov Sea the next summer’; ‘Iran is delivering ballistic missiles to Russia’…?

Stupid me: decided to try checking with help of contacts in Russia. Ironically, the few Russians I happen to be in touch with were bamboozled by such reports...at least unless it became known that a large contingent of Buryats is about to reach the battlefield. Now they say, well, for them (the Russians), ‘Buryats’ are, de-facto, ‘the same like Koreans’. And, what’s most important to them: Buryats are relatively well-trained, and following their orders…

Perhaps some Ukrainians are of the same opinion, and Buryats = same like Koreans?  

But OK. I should not fail to add that a few other Russians have a different, even if no less simple explanation: they’ve run out of convicts and thus need Koreans…

Point is: cannot but caution about this affair. After 10,5 year of this fracas, it’s obvious that reports by ultra-wiz-bang Ukrainian intelligence services are resembling lottery: everything’s possible…

***

Seriously now: have no doubts, please, I’m so relieved, and so delighted that Ukraine has a military intelligence service… and this is working so well, can’t say. Almost as good as the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Affairs. Which is a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge surprise…

Namely, the boss of that instance, Fedorov, was caught lying. And thus Zelensky was caught lying, too (because he’s meanwhile repeated the same statement).

Fedorov has announced that the ZSU has received ‘1 million FPV drones over the last year’.

Honestly, I would be happy if that would be truth.   

Problem: it’s impossible. Please mind: ‘1 million of drones in 12 months’ would mean a production (and the rate of use) of around 2,739 FPVs a day. Because….well… rumour has it….somebody said… was it the uncle of my neighbour’s nice, third degree….? or wrote…was it somewhere on the internet? …that 1,000,000 divided by 365 is 2,739… or so….who can know for sure…nobody can calculate such things….

Anyway… actually, there are no Ukrainian figures available. They’re unknown. So much so, I doubt even Fedorov could really say.

What is known for sure is that around 400+ Ukrainian companies have been registered with the activity code ’30.30’. This stands for ‘aerial and space vehicles production’. To the best of my knowledge they are certainly manufacturing around 100 UAVs a day – but of all the types, not just the FPVs.

But, OK: people demand me to be optimistic. Thus, lets try a different approach. Based on figures one can read here (is one of best-informed sources to this topic), Fedorov’s statement simply can’t be taken for bare money.

At best, RUMINT has it that the ZSU is spending ‘2-3 times as many FPVs as the Russians do’. OK, then lets do some calculation (it’s so simple, even I can do that): according to the link above, the Russians were using ‘250-300 a day as of June’, then ‘up to 550 a day after’.

Lets say it’s 500 Russian FPVs a day on average… for 12 months in succession… and lets say the Ukrainians are using no 2, but 3 times as many. I doubt it is, but lets be optimistic: you’ve demanded me to be optimistic… so, that’s 1,500 Ukrainian FPVs a day on average… for 12 months in succession. Well, beg your pardon, but: in such case… 1500x365= 547,500. Means: Ukraine might have manufactured and delivered to the ZSU some 547,500 FPVs in 12 months.

At most. And because I’ve been told to be optimistic.

Sure, micro production not sponsored by the Ministry of Digital Affairs (because the Ministry of Defence loves UAVs a lot, but can’t sign a single order), funds from donations, and ZSU troops buying FPVs on their own, etc.… that’s adding, say (this is a guess), some 150,000…. let’s be enthusiastic and say; 200,000 FPVs.

Arguably, that’s no Fedorov’s achievement. Even less so Zelensky’s. But, let’s be optimistic and try to make them happy. And you too, dear reader.

Point is: unless Fedorov (and Zelensky) have managed to super-secretly increase the production to more than 3,000 FPVs a day (perhaps in his/their own garage/s? perhaps by employing his/their wives and kids, and that 24/7?), the story with ‘1 million FPVs manufactured in the last 12 months’ is simply not truth. And making such statements in the public: is a lie. This even more so considering China has, as reported early this month, imposed drastic limitations on export of UAV-parts to Ukraine (especially propeller-mounts), causing extensive problems to the country where the mass of FPV-production is reliant on import of ‘ready-to-use’ parts.

Of course, there is always an alternative. For example: there might be some super-ultra-secret storage facility (so secret, I would have to kill myself should I ever find out about it) where the logistics services of the ZSU are bunkering 300,000+ FPVs – and not handing them over to the troops that need them, urgently…

Your choice.

***

Tragically, it’s more likely that I’m right, and they’re lying. Evidence for this was provided by nobody less than Zelensky. Two days ago, he took part in a conference of that fantastically democratic and transparent body named the ‘European Council’. Right after that, he provided a press conference during which he did his best to provide plentiful evidence for either his very own-, or Yermak’s (is there any difference?) illusions and dilettantism. 

Essentially, Zelensky explained that Ukraine has two options: either it’s accepted as a member of NATO, or must have nuclear weapons.

(Of course, he – promptly – ‘stressed’, that prefers joining NATO….)

The first association coming to my mind was a scene of a mother and her 5- or 6-years-old kid in a toystore.

Kid: Mummy, mummy, I want that toy!

Mum: No, sorry, not this time.

Kid: But, mummy, mummy, I want that toy!

Mum: No. Come on and move.

Kid: Buuuuuuuuuaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

…

My dear Mr. President… for your information: with nukes and ‘the West’, it is like this. Either you have them, but you aren’t babbling about them in the public, or you do not babble about that topic at all. Otherwise, this kind of idiocy only has three effects:

1)      All of zombie idiots in that ‘the West’ are browning their underwear;

2)      You’re ‘rogue’ and thus, definitely, out of their ‘exclusive club’; and

3)      You’re subjected to severe sanctions.

But OK. I’m supposed to be more optimistic, and thus: lets say Ukraine makes its nukes. Sure, everything is in place and putting together a few ‘devices’ - ‘cradles’ if you like – is a matter of ‘weeks’ for Ukrainian nuclear scientists.

And?

What then?

How is 1, 5, 10 Ukrainian nukes going to change the situation on the battlefield? How is that going to convince Pudding to give up and withdraw from Ukraine?

Except Zelensky then intends to deploy them, of course, which in turn would - certainly - lead to a Russian retaliation in style, to which NATO would have to retaliate in style…

….which is bringing me to the next question: has Ukraine got a reliable delivery system for nukes? Something, you, Mr. President, can be 1000% sure could carry that cradle over, say, 100, 500, 700 or so kilometres, and ‘hit’ – at least anywhere within 2000 metres of the aiming point….?

Above all, Mr. Zelensky: what kind of ‘allies’ do you expect to have, that would be happy if you are publicly blackmailing them with Ukrainian capability to develop nukes? 

Finally – and while: yes, sure, many are going to explain this with 1000s of good reasons – but you seriously think nobody needs to be concerned about Western sanctions against Ukraine if the latter comes up with nukes?

See Pakistan. They ‘tested their nukes’, there were few years of sanctions and then everything was fine, right? Oh, but sure. Just that Pakistan has PR China and Saudi Arabia to pay its bills, and thus can go bankrupting itself while developing… something that didn’t work; so much so, the Chinese had to lend them some for ‘Pakistani testing’…

Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but, the last I’ve heard, sorry: Ukraine has no China and no Saudi Arabia to sponsor it with blanc cheques.

With other words: this is not only dilettantism. This is political primitivism 1^st class. Something that must be taught to kids in schools, so they never do such idiotic mistakes in the time of their life.

***

And then, lets think about the ‘armed force’ supposed to operate these nukes…

It turned out that back in late September, during the last few days of the Battle of Vuhledar (i.e. only when it was too late), the glorious CinC ZSU, General Syrsky – decided to ‘reinforce’ the 72^nd Mech in Vuhledar in his usual fashion. Through deploying multiple battalions. And since, well, in the mind of such brilliant strategists like Syrsky, ‘a battalion is a battalion’, he decided to reinforce the 72nd by two battalions of Territorial Defence. Specifically: the 186^th and the 189^th from the 123^rd TD Brigade.

As a result, not only that half of both battalions, plus 100 from the third element of that brigade – the 187^th Battalion – defected in protest, but the commander of the 186^th, Major Ihor Hryb, committed a suicide.

Why?

Because he (and his troops) knew his unit is neither trained nor equipped for the task, and his troops are going to all get killed as result, and then for achieving nothing at all.

Of course, Syrsky couldn’t care less…

But, please, pay attention when reading that article: when one thinks about ‘defectors’, one usually thinks about people who ‘disappear’. Go hiding, so they do not need to fight.

However, these ‘defectors’ from the 123rd TD Brigade - not: they joined their families in public protests against Syrsky’s idiotic decision.

Read: troops are willing to fight. But, not if neither trained nor equipped for the task. Even less so if commanded by characters they know are incompetent.

Now mind: this is ‘the army’ Zelensky wants to become a member of NATO? Right away, without any delays?

Wow!

Now, imagine Syrsky’s ZSU joining NATO. And Syrsky (or one of his incompetent buddies) then being assigned to command ‘battalions’ consisting of German, Latvian, Polish, Italian, Spanish, perhaps US troops…and then squandering them, letting them get killed by thousands because Ukrainian generals just can’t give donkey’s dick about losses of their units… That would be ‘fun’… A true ‘Dreamland’.

Overall: sorry, cannot but conclude, Mr. Zelensky, that I find neither you, nor your top military commanders for sane and conscious enough to play with such stuff like nukes.

***

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

On 15 October, the PSU claimed to have shot down 12 and jammed 4 out of 17 Shaheds streamed by the Russians into the Ukrainian airspace during the previous night. Curiously, the PSU reported almost nothing else – which is as interesting because the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed that during the night from 14 to 15 October, they have targeted ‘military infrastructure facilities’ in Cherhnihiv, Sumy, Cherkassy, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv by a combination of ‘Geran-2’ (i.e. Shahid) attack UAVs, Iskander-M and Kh-59/69 guided missiles. Further, they reported that in Mykolaiv they’ve targeted the local ‘Armour Plant’, where Western-made vehicles like Leopards and Challengers, VABs etc are maintained and repaired: they say that a strike by five missiles demolished two workshops and torched a hall of 600 square metres.

Now, sure: ‘Russians and their claims’… but, well: what about ‘PSU and it’s claiming’? You think this became better since Zelensky fired Oleshchuk?

Hihi…

Point is, about a week ago, the PSU’s claiming resulted in rumours making circles in Ukraine that after 48 days of continuous strikes of this kind, and then one of recent Ukrainian UAV strikes on one of Shahed-depots in Russia, the Russians are running short on such attack UAVs. 

Well, all of this was proven wrong during the night from 15 to 16 October, when the PSU reported that the Russians have streamed 136 Shaheds into the Ukrainian airspace. As of 07.00hrs, 51 of these were claimed as shot down, and 60 as jammed with help of electronic warfare, while the action against the others was still underway…

What the PSU also didn’t brag about was that since 6 October, the Russians are savaging the port facilities in Odessa (and Mykolaiv) by Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Think I’ve already mentioned two merchants hit on 12 September (Shui Spirit and Paresa)? Two days later, on 14 October, they’ve also hit NS Moon (registered in Belize) and Optima (Palau), and damaged lots of port infrastructure, cranes, loading terminals, and vehicle control points. Three people are known to have been killed.

By side that they claim to have hit a ‘base of NATO mercenaries’. But, even the Keystone Cops in Moscow can meanwhile outmatch official Kyiv. For example, they do claim these vessels were ‘delivering weapons to Ukraine’. For example: Swedish-made ‘Combat Boat 90s’. Indeed, they say that the Optima was used as a carrier for unmanned surface vessels to strike targets in the Crimea. I doubt this is truth. However, the part where the Keystone Cops say the same vessels were involved in exporting the Ukrainian grain – is truth. And, at least for once, and at war, targeting the enemy source of income is simply a legal affair.

I only wonder why is official Kyiv zip-lip about all of this? Where is now all the cheering about the ‘collapse of the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports’, from few week ago….?

Of course, the Russian ‘Shaheding’ of Ukraine went on. On 18 October, the PSU proudly claimed to have shot down 80 out of 135 detected attack UAVs… another 44 were jammed, two flew into the Belarussian airspace.. erm… so, 9 still came through and scored hits?

Must be another of these ‘defensive successes’, so popular nowadays, especially since Israel of 1 October 2024…

…sigh… if only the PSU- and ZSU troops could afford wasting their time with all of these fantasies, illusions, day-dreaming, and fabrications…

To the luck of all of us: they’re not even coming to the idea to do so. And, so, the last few days, they’ve HIMARS-ed quite a few places behind the Russian lines (apparently, the Trio Fantasticus had the mercy to ship some modified rounds to Ukraine again). Between others, and in southern Zaporizhzhya alone, they have smashed troop concentrations on two or three training grounds (for example: here); then smashed a bridge on the Konka River near Oleshky, etc.

The last night, Ukraine has targeted multiple facilities in Bryansk. Apparently, scored a few hits – or the Russians shot down everything and it was merely debris that fell on the ground and set something afire… Perhaps more importantly, or to make the way free for attack UAVs: the ZSU HIMARS-ed a 1K148 Yastreb-AB radar system, somewhere in Luhansk.

Cluster-bomblet-strike on one of VSRF’s training grounds in southern Zaporizhzhya, probably on 16 or 17 October. Gauging by what was visible, this one hit around a platoon-worth of the Russian infantry.

***

GROUND WARFARE

In general, yes, I can confirm the part of Podolyak’s report from 14 October (Podolyak is Zelensky’s advisor), according to which the ZSU has improved the rotation of its troops. It’s not by much but, and quite to my surprise, early on 16 October have realised I know about at least four brigades withdrawn from the line, and meanwhile undergoing reorganisation and even some re-building. Sorry, I’m not going to go into details about what units nor where. I’m leaving it to the Keystone Cops in Moscow to find out. Moreover, I’m not sure how much can a week or two of rest for the units in question be considered as ‘building up a reserve’… but… ho-hum… (must be too little smoking, again…)… you wanted me to say something optimistic. Even enthusiastic. So, there you go…

***

Kursk… The problem with this Ukrainian operation is simple. So much so that Zelensky, Syrsky, and all of their glorious generals must have known certain things right from the start… except of course,  they’re bigger military dilettantes than I am. Heck, the CO of the 80^th Airborne knew it, which is why he quit and resigned when informed about that operation…

Specifically,

1.)    if the ZSU was sent into Russia with the aim of trouncing the VSRF (and, perhaps the VDV too) in a manoeuvre battle (see: ‘Wildschweinjagd’), thus forcing the Keystone Cops to withdraw their units from within Ukraine, then it has overstayed the purpose. It has already trounced about two dozens of regiments; it has forced the Russians to withdraw units from northern Kharkiv and southern Zaporizhzhya. Moreover, it captured a huge wealth in FSB documentation. So, WTF is it still doing there? Better to mine everything, then withdraw, regroup and repeat the exercise at some other point before the Russians know what’s going on. BUT,

2.)    if the ZSU was sent into Russia with the aim of capturing territory as a bargain, then that was a pure idiocy. An absolutely pointless exercise. This, for exactly the same reason why the ZSU can’t hold the line in Ukraine: because it has an illusionist in charge, commanding via his incompetent micromanager, supported by an entire GenStab-U of incompetents, which results in the ZSU’s inability to hold terrain. And if the ZSU can’t hold terrain, then it’s pointless to send it into Russia to capture terrain that might be used as bargain. Finally,

3.)    if the ZSU was sent to Russia for the purpose of impressing the zombie idiots in the West, as one must expect Zelensky to have decided… then why wasting 400+ troops (ZSU’s KIA so far, in this operation) from some of best ZSU battalions, plus time, plus lots of irreplaceable ammunition, plus lots of precious vehicles – where they could have been used so much better in Ukraine?

If the Zelensky Administration is responsible to ‘the people’ of Ukraine, then it better explains this. And that pronto. Because… well, that famous itch in my small toe is telling me that there are strong reasons to have doubts ‘the people’ of Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar, Pishchane, Kruhiyakivka, Nevske, Terny, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Myrnohrad, Hrodivka, Krasny Yar, Orlivka, Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, Prhorhres, Novoselivka Persha, Umansk, Netaliove, Pervomaiske, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, Avdiivka… and so many other places lost over the ‘last few months’, or about to be lost – are in delirium of happiness that they are forced to flee from their homes, and these are pulverised by the Russians (and then looted, whatever is or was still there), for the purpose of some idiot in Kyiv trying to impress few office farters in Washington, Berlin, London, or Paris.

But hey: the GenStab-U has already found a solution! How about deploying battalions of Territorial Defence inside Russia?

Simply brilliant.

I do not even try to wonder if any of super-brains in Kyiv is surprised that these, poorly-trained, and poorly-equipped units are then the primary targets of Russian counterattacks. Why should they care about ‘such details’ – if, actually, they can’t think beyond how many battalions they’ve deployed in what sector…?

What a surprise then, when one chats with the Russians fighting there, these are describing how the captured Ukrainian TD-troops are simply throwing away their weapons and surrendering, before (as far as not summarily executed by thugs from the 155^th Naval Infantry Brigade) openly saying that they’re not keen to fight for their ‘faggot generals’.

….I know, that’s politically incorrect to say, not even to quote, and also ‘strongly supportive’ (read: not at all) for my ‘Wildschweinjagd’-theory: I’ll punish myself through spending the rest of the day in a corner, on my knees, praying Paternoster… while Kyiv now must find another way to capture more Russians, so it can replace them for yet additional Ukrainians captured by the Russians…

Anyway… since 15 October, and supported by a massive deployment of FPV-drones guided with help of electro-optic cables (which is making their jamming nearly impossible), the VSRF and VDV re-launched their counteroffensive with powerful attacks from Kalinov in direction of Kruglenskoe, and from Lyubimovka on Zeleny Shliyak. The ZSU held out in the eastern side of Novoivanovka, in Leonidovo, in Nizhnii Klin, and in Tolstoyi Lug. On 17 October, the Russian 155^th NIB then pushed past Novoivanovka in direction of Malaya Loknya and Kruglenkoee: this time it was the 95^th Airborne that saved the situation with a counterattack, smashing an entire assault group including at least 3 BTR-82s (additional details: here). Rather unsurprisingly, there are rumours that the survivors of the 155^th NIB are meanwhile refusing to assault again.

Just how bitter and thus, often, chaotic is the fighting of the last few days is indicative by several ironic situations. For example, the Russians captured a near-intact Stryker infantry fighting vehicle of the ZSU, and found a card with a list of US Army troops inside.

Logical conclusion: that crew was from the USA. Indeed, ‘US Army troops’. ‘NATO mercenaries’.

When somebody (over there in Russia) asked where are their bodies, there was another logical conclusion: all burned…

Sorry: can’t but love this…

Another major achievement the Russians are celebrating in the Kursk area: ‘third Challenger destroyed’. This time, apparently, with good reason.

….and yet another Russian achievement can be observed in this video, where a BTR-82A of the 810^th NIB nonchalantly drove past two T-64sa of the 17^th Tank Brigade. The crews of the latter were a bit surprised: then one pulled the trigger and blew up the Russian vehicle.

The scene repeated itself here.

***

Northern Kharkiv… Ukrainians have continued their advance from Lyptsi to Lukyantsi; the Russians continued pushing back into central Vovchansk.

***

Kupyansk-Svatove… Yes, a big Russian motorcycle-mounted assault group was smshed by the 77^th Airborne and the Timur UAV unit. However, the Russians have managed to enter Kruhlyakivka, and thus reach the Oskil River and cut the ZSU bridgehead into two. What’s worse, the Ukrainians now have only a half-broken bridge near the Chuihiv-Svatove highway to keep their troops in the Kupyansk bridgehead supplied….

Further south, the 3rd Assault counterattacked into Nevske and recovered some of the village.

***

Bakhmut…meanwhile it’s confirmed that the Russians have two bridgeheads west of the Siversky Donets – Donbass Canal: one west of Kalinivka, the other inside Chasiv Yar.

***

Toretsk…the Ukrainian counterattack of the last weekend seems to have left no lasting impressions upon the VSRF. It’s back to assaulting through the centre towards west and south-west.

***

Pokrovsk… after multiple failures to reach Selydove, the Russians returned to trying to outflank the 15^th NG Kara-Dag by attacks north and south of the town. And they have expanded their four of five penetrations of ZSU lines in the Tskuryne area – towards west (‘only fields there’) and in southern direction (Kreminna Balka, Izmailivka, Parallel and Zhelanne Druhe).

***

Kurakhove: the Russians have captured Ostrivske.

***

Vuhledar… Yes, the 79^th Airborne smashed 33 Russian armoured fighting vehicles while defending just one assault, this week, but still: the Russians entered Kateynivka and completed securing Kostyantynivka.

And that’s it. I’m leaving it to all of you to draw your own conclusions.