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James Coffey's avatar

All of this seems to me to be a real mess.

Re: nukes in Ukraine--I recall that in conformance with the Lisbon Protocol, Ukraine transferred all of its Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil to Russia. I was working for the Dept. of Energy then [and later its semi-independent agency, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)]. I recall reports supposedly indicating that all nuclear material in Ukraine was transferred to Russia, that much if not most of the bare metal, which came from the decommissioining of Soviet nuclear weapons in accordance with nuclear arms control treaties, was sent to the U.S. for disposal in the sense that it was turned into non-weapons grade metal (mostly Plutonium-239). There were plans within DOE for contracting with comercial nuclear power generation facilities to accept "blended metal," that would require some reconfiguration of commercial nuclear facility electrical generation to accommodate the physical (nuclear) characteristics of Pu-239 compared with U-235, the primary uranium isotope used as reactor fuel. I don't know to what extent that these plans were implemented; I didn't work in the nuclear power generating business while at DOE/NNSA.

Assuming that currently Ukraine has no nuclear weapons from the Soviet era "in hiding," and no "bare" nuclear metal on hand, I don't see how Ukraine can construct even a low-tech nuclear weapon in the short term, especially in the midst of the current war. Recovering nuclear metal, specifically Pu-239, from a commerical nuclear reactor requires significant infrastructure that I don't think the Ukrainians have. Also, the funding for such activities is also very significant. I perceive that Ukraine has the technical expertise to do so, but all of this takes time in addition to facilities development and the associated required funding.

The cynic in me observes that the bottom line lesson that I take from all of this is that nations with viable nuclear weapons do not get invaded by other nations. So much for nuclear non-proliferation. Russia now is teaching the world this vital principle!

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Pete's avatar

People who work as a analyst have to be really tough against mental fatigue. All the data and information must be connected to make one clear picture. I know how fun but also demanding this can be. As a long time reader I would suggest, that you should take a week off. War does not have a break, but no one can expect that some people can deliver some high quality information without any breaks. I think you deserve it.

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