Hello everybody! Another ‘quick and dirty’ focusing on Avidiivka, where the situation remains critical. (Mind: this feature has been updated with ‘few bits and pieces’ of information that became available through the morning.) *** Through the last two days, the VKS continued heavily bombing the Avidiivka area. Over 60 air strikes were recorded.
Thanks for report . I'm deeply concerned about decision of Genstab to send third brigade in Avdiivka . It is actually almost operational encirclement. I hope that it is only to allow other forces to retreat at least from east of city. And thank you that answered on my question about Zenit
Good bet: 3A is hitting the flank of the orc push between the Coke plant and town itself. Very nice pocket the enemy has potentially pushed into.
That being said, looks to me like ZSU needs a much broader counterattack to hold in the long run. Me, I'd have 3A hold open the door for an evacuation of all but the coke plant. We'll see what happens over the weekend...
It looks like, that the problem is that Ukraine failed to create deep defense with multiple lines, so its harder for them to retreat. Until the Russians are digging everywhere like moles. Yes, they wasted some units in the summer near Bahmut, but they manage to create good defenses behind. The army that dig more will stay longer in the war.
The Russian society is not one thing. The good citizens in Moscow and St. P and key Russian cities does not know or care about the losses. After all they are hit less. Several also accept this as part of being Russian, «they took losses in the great war and won, we will do so no. Fatalisme is part of the culturd. The poor families of the rural recruitment area may know the situation, but likely not. So overall result: they do not know or care. The loss rate will have to be Even higher in biodiesel before it matters.
Forgive me if I am wrong, but I think I saw on one of your earlier posts that the 3rd Assault bg. has around 12-14k people ? Is this true ? I couldn't believe my eyes so I tried to search online for it's composition and found a website that lists 6 i.bt. and 1 tc. bt. under it's command, 4 art. bt. (although one is AG 9 so...) and plus the bg. own reserve in the form of AT and AA bt. This can't be right ! To many forces and too much responsibility for a simple bg, cmdr. The odd thing is it only has 1 logistics battalion, which is standard for a bg. . How is it supposed to supply 7 + 4 arty bt. on the long run ? It makes me think this is not it's standard composition but more of a temporary one. In certain special situations, when given an objective like defending a very important sector or attacking one, it's normal practice for a bg. to receive reinforcements, especially arty, so, creating an artillery group, but this structure has a temporary nature, it's not meant to exist in this form for more than 1-2 weeks. Even if this is the case with the 3rd assault, it's still way too much, it's command staff is not structured to control that many forces, it doesn't have the means nor the personnel to do this.
Yes-No. Depending on the size of the reinforcing units, which will temporarily be subordinated to the bg. in question, some transformations also take place at the staff level. Example: If you decide to reinforce a bg. artillery component with one more bt. (from the Division level; A Division usually has an arty bg./reg. in it's direct control), nothing happens, the bg. arty command can easily control one more bt. But if you decide to reinforce with more than one, so 2 or 3, those reinforcing arty bt. are coming along with their bg./reg. command staff which takes control of all arty in the sector, including the bg.' s 1 arty bt. (exactly because 3 or 4 arty bt. are too much for a bt. cmdr and his staff; it's not that he is incompetent, just unprepared for his level and his staff not built to handle the resulting force). Ukraine not having a Divisional level complicates things some more.
Mind that logistic units tend to have the lowest losses. So, the logistics of the 110th Mech can continue supporting two battalions of the 3rd Assault, just for example, instead of their own elements - which were withdrawn, meanwhile.
Yes it can, it can also take care of more battalions, but only for short periods of time. Like I explained, 1-2 weeks maximum. That's why these "mutant" formations are only temporary solutions, constructed out of necessity.
You could give it a couple more companies but that is it. Giving it more than that will create problems of its own. In the brigade system, each battalion has a logistics platoon and each brigade has a logistics battalion under it's command. Going up, the Division has one logistics regiment directly subordinated so, in theory, could detach 1-2 companies to reinforce it's brigades but it also has it's own subordinated forces to take care of: 1 support bt. ,1 CIS bt., 1 ISR brigade, 1 AT bt. , 1 CBRN bt. , 1 EOD bt. , 1 engineer bt. Give to the left, loose on the right ! See where I am going with this ? If it gives away too much, the Division might not be able to offer you support when you call for it, if you disperse it's directly subordinated forces.
Thanks for the new report. I'm wondering about long-term replenishments of VSRF forces. If I'm understanding correctly, for now those are mostly volunteers(people from poor regions wanting some money). It seems unlikely that kremlin would be able to sustain amount of troops without new mobilisation weave. (If I remember correctly, volunteer-only third army corps, created in 2022 was about 18-25 thousands for several months of recruitment and training). What are you estimates regarding sustainability of current model?
Thanks again for the update. Things may seem critical for Ukraine warriors in Avidiivka, but hey! We’re spoken about warriors vs orcs, so if only the ammo deliveries may come back to levels previous to the Gaza carnage, sure they shall break the green horde back.
Thanks for report . I'm deeply concerned about decision of Genstab to send third brigade in Avdiivka . It is actually almost operational encirclement. I hope that it is only to allow other forces to retreat at least from east of city. And thank you that answered on my question about Zenit
Much appreciated.
And re. Avidiivka: be patient, wait and see.
Good bet: 3A is hitting the flank of the orc push between the Coke plant and town itself. Very nice pocket the enemy has potentially pushed into.
That being said, looks to me like ZSU needs a much broader counterattack to hold in the long run. Me, I'd have 3A hold open the door for an evacuation of all but the coke plant. We'll see what happens over the weekend...
Thanks Sarcastosaurio . .
Moin, Tom
anscheinend sind GLSDB schon im einsatz...
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1757769966835642625
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/u-s-glsdb-bombs-en-route-to-ukrainian-military-1706730949.html
Thanks. Is there any info on how many GLSDB Ukraine has?
AFAIK, no details in this regards.
That seems like a million dollar question…
Partial or full withdrawal is in the process already https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758101840724435236
It looks like, that the problem is that Ukraine failed to create deep defense with multiple lines, so its harder for them to retreat. Until the Russians are digging everywhere like moles. Yes, they wasted some units in the summer near Bahmut, but they manage to create good defenses behind. The army that dig more will stay longer in the war.
The problem is that Ukraine has not enough ammo and Russian society accepts very high loses.
I don’t think Russian society has any idea what losses they are suffering. For the people in charge it’s just fodder.
The Russian society is not one thing. The good citizens in Moscow and St. P and key Russian cities does not know or care about the losses. After all they are hit less. Several also accept this as part of being Russian, «they took losses in the great war and won, we will do so no. Fatalisme is part of the culturd. The poor families of the rural recruitment area may know the situation, but likely not. So overall result: they do not know or care. The loss rate will have to be Even higher in biodiesel before it matters.
Ammo depends on external sources. Digging is something they could do themselves.
They need ammo. To kill more Russians. They havent enough. The analysis is simple, the Solution has not been delivered.
The press service of the Tavria operational sector today mentioned an ongoing "partial retreat to more advantageous positions."
Forgive me if I am wrong, but I think I saw on one of your earlier posts that the 3rd Assault bg. has around 12-14k people ? Is this true ? I couldn't believe my eyes so I tried to search online for it's composition and found a website that lists 6 i.bt. and 1 tc. bt. under it's command, 4 art. bt. (although one is AG 9 so...) and plus the bg. own reserve in the form of AT and AA bt. This can't be right ! To many forces and too much responsibility for a simple bg, cmdr. The odd thing is it only has 1 logistics battalion, which is standard for a bg. . How is it supposed to supply 7 + 4 arty bt. on the long run ? It makes me think this is not it's standard composition but more of a temporary one. In certain special situations, when given an objective like defending a very important sector or attacking one, it's normal practice for a bg. to receive reinforcements, especially arty, so, creating an artillery group, but this structure has a temporary nature, it's not meant to exist in this form for more than 1-2 weeks. Even if this is the case with the 3rd assault, it's still way too much, it's command staff is not structured to control that many forces, it doesn't have the means nor the personnel to do this.
As long as the staff can cope with the situation, there is no problem.
See: 'never change the winning team'.
Yes-No. Depending on the size of the reinforcing units, which will temporarily be subordinated to the bg. in question, some transformations also take place at the staff level. Example: If you decide to reinforce a bg. artillery component with one more bt. (from the Division level; A Division usually has an arty bg./reg. in it's direct control), nothing happens, the bg. arty command can easily control one more bt. But if you decide to reinforce with more than one, so 2 or 3, those reinforcing arty bt. are coming along with their bg./reg. command staff which takes control of all arty in the sector, including the bg.' s 1 arty bt. (exactly because 3 or 4 arty bt. are too much for a bt. cmdr and his staff; it's not that he is incompetent, just unprepared for his level and his staff not built to handle the resulting force). Ukraine not having a Divisional level complicates things some more.
Mind that logistic units tend to have the lowest losses. So, the logistics of the 110th Mech can continue supporting two battalions of the 3rd Assault, just for example, instead of their own elements - which were withdrawn, meanwhile.
Yes it can, it can also take care of more battalions, but only for short periods of time. Like I explained, 1-2 weeks maximum. That's why these "mutant" formations are only temporary solutions, constructed out of necessity.
I would guess the logistics batallion was bloated up as well.
You could give it a couple more companies but that is it. Giving it more than that will create problems of its own. In the brigade system, each battalion has a logistics platoon and each brigade has a logistics battalion under it's command. Going up, the Division has one logistics regiment directly subordinated so, in theory, could detach 1-2 companies to reinforce it's brigades but it also has it's own subordinated forces to take care of: 1 support bt. ,1 CIS bt., 1 ISR brigade, 1 AT bt. , 1 CBRN bt. , 1 EOD bt. , 1 engineer bt. Give to the left, loose on the right ! See where I am going with this ? If it gives away too much, the Division might not be able to offer you support when you call for it, if you disperse it's directly subordinated forces.
Thanks for the report, this is such a tough war.
Ukraie needs weapons and ammunition, they know what to do
Thanks for the update. Really difficult to see any good News here. But we will have to wait and see.
Thanks for the new report. I'm wondering about long-term replenishments of VSRF forces. If I'm understanding correctly, for now those are mostly volunteers(people from poor regions wanting some money). It seems unlikely that kremlin would be able to sustain amount of troops without new mobilisation weave. (If I remember correctly, volunteer-only third army corps, created in 2022 was about 18-25 thousands for several months of recruitment and training). What are you estimates regarding sustainability of current model?
Have discussed that under 'Question 9', few days ago:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-13-february-2024-q-and
Thanks again for the update. Things may seem critical for Ukraine warriors in Avidiivka, but hey! We’re spoken about warriors vs orcs, so if only the ammo deliveries may come back to levels previous to the Gaza carnage, sure they shall break the green horde back.