Interesting addition to the situation that the Russian Railway was forced to stop receiving and forwarding international traffic towards Belarus, because of the lack of locomotives. looks like partly because the railway is overwhelmed with the extra war demands and partly because even the not always effective sanctions resulted subpar maintenance and repairs, there are simply not enough traction engine to move troops quickly from the south AND serve the transport demand of the industry. I can only hope that somebody at the ZSU had also read the article...
Russia is even short of bearings for heavy machines. Most of heavy machine bearings comes from Sweden or USA. China do not make them (in large numbers).
BTW. Sovied Unineon produced them. But although wages in Russia in 90s were fractions of those in the Western EU or US, their factories bankrupt because their bearings were more expensive that those imported from Sweden of USA.
This part "And the reason is ah-so-sound: the mass of talking-heads – and especially people reporting about weather in the morning, cooking and sports in the afternoon, and Ukraine in the evening - simply can’t cope with the situation."
Reminds me of the Ukraine talk I get into every time, because, well I'm Ukrainian living in Estonia. I been living here since 82, there are tons of people who want to talk to me about war. I will not give into embarrassing details how I know more about Estonian history, than them, proved my point more then once or that I have visited Ukraine hundreds of times and probably know a bit more than random Estonian.
To the point. I wanted to share a story about talking heads who like to discuss Ukraine.
I was invited to dinner, about 10 people, all down to earth, eat only eco, natural, milk my own cow, kinds of foods. Person who was organizing the dinner, is like, a bit of a superstar for these people, everyone listens, nods etc.
So the guy said "I think the biggest threat to humanity is GMOs, they are murdering us with it", everyone was like YES, YES, and lots of bs followed.
I asked, so why don't you stop taking your insulin, he has diabetes, he was confused and wanted to know why would I wish him harm and possible death. Well, insulin is GMO? Silence, gasp, I think I saw blood vessel explode in his eye and it started twitching.
The whole evening was kinda quiet, I left soon after that, did not feel like staying.
Point of the story is, that 99% of people you talk to, about something, like Ukraine, they don't know shit about it. The universe and human stupidity, you, these two infinites :)
The point is the decision-making people eagerly adopt to the prevailing ignorance and stupidity. In case if they are not stupid and ignorant themselves.
You should have at least briefly explained to everyone present how insulin is synthesized and what bacteria and fungi are needed for. And you took it and left in silence, leaving your acquaintance to solve this riddle by himself. He probably still has eye twitches on this occasion. It was necessary to explain that GMOs are pure science.
Oh c'mon Tom... a bit of rant, irony is fun. I love your work, but try to keep the 'operational' part straightforward and simple to read. Not all of use are native english speakers.
It took me several reads to understand what is going on...
Second this. I'm lucky cause I grew up with the language. My countrymen here in South East Asia...not so much. Hell, they buy into more myths than the anyone else about 'Russian Superiority' than other people
I am an English speaker and it is definately a 2-3 time read to understand because of the sarcasm. I think the writing style should be opening section with sarcasm, main bit no sarcasm and conclusion with part 1 no sarcasm part 2 sarcasm.
Me too! I got it from the first read, but had to "chew" on the wording carefully to extract its full meaning. I like my food "al dente," especially good Italian pasta. I also prefer my sarcasm that way too. Please keep it up, Tom. I might as well find some grisly, ass-backward humor and enjoyment from what can only be called a huge tragedy in progress.
Not a native speaker either, not sure what's so hard about swapping "withdraw" and "advance". Would be a bit easier to picture it all if I didn't have to check each place's location on a map myself, but since Tom admitted spending less time writing these posts than I need to read them, it's understandable :)
Be it as it may, I am a native English speaker. Scanning Tom’s text I lose tract of his sarcasm and wonder why he is referencing forward actions as some kind of retreat (???).
Good to know that the destruction of Russian assets is going full speed ahead. And if in the mean time some lucky Russians are relieved from the dullness of Putin and his prop idiots, all the better.
Waiting for visual confirmation that access to YouTube was restored in Lhiv.
Thanks again for your hard work and sorry for my english, I use google translation.
I stumbled upon an African pro-Russian propaganda channel. They show FSB images of five Ukrainian prisoners. Do you think they could be elements of the 92nd Mecha? If they had more prisoners they would not hesitate to show them. In another excerpt they have a Ukrainian prisoner speak, perhaps one of the five, and clearly under pressure who recites his text. The orders he supposedly received are so reminiscent of the behavior of the Russians during the invasion of Ukraine (looting valuable objects, shooting men in the legs, killing armed men, not taking prisoners, ...) that it would be comical if it were not so dramatic. I did not put the links because I assume you already have them via Russia.
Yes, three troops from the 92nd were captured by the Russians in Belitsa, three days ago. Their shoulder patches were clear to see - and sure: they're something like 'big news' of the day. Especially for Rybar and other of Pudding's PRBS-industrialists.
....principally because they've declared the Ukrainian offensive into the Kursk Oblast for stopped, at least two times this week alone.
....and then because the last 36 hours, they all fell silent about this area. Probably because the situation is getting better and better. 🤭
literally the ukrainian word for a melange of barley and rye(flour), an idiom spoken in eastern parts of Ukraine and the bordering russian oblasts. Meanwhile even heard quite often in Lwiw, because of the refugees from the occupied parts.
I dont like that I am devils advocate here but for this moment...
...reasons why this operation - which was not a bad idea by itself - IMO reached its cumulative point already:
Strategic (big politic): this was writen dozens of time that the wrong is on the side of "collective" West (politically impotent, inability to hit russian regime really hard where it is possible and prevention of use of its long reach weapons against airfields) as well as on side of "collective" Ukraine - where too many people just sit and wait that "collective" west must solve this somewhat without much commitment on side of ukraine.
It is obvious that Ukraine leadership is (collectivelly) simply not capable to solve problems - people with enough strategic vision and managerial skills are too few to be able to solve all the necessary task and so many oficials arent mentally and intelectually capable to make right dicision in right time. There is shortage of manpower, supplies and ammunition. Not to talk about supply of FPV drones and those Lyut drones that are hiting russian airports. Until early this year nearly 100% of FPV drones were delivered by volunteer not the state institution. Operations of Lyut drones are going on, which is possitive - but we dont know its cost-effectivnes compared to Russian Geraň/Garbers drones.
Operational-military: As the mentioned manpower problem indicate, for this operation - units from DOnbass frontlines were pulled and redirected to Sudzha-Kursk direction. Unfortunatelly without much recuperation and rest and even if they accomulated a lot of frontline experience = the warfare in defensive / trenches under Pokrovsk is something different than maneuver warfare in enviroment which is different and required really a lot of capable sergeants that can lead their subrodinates.
Technical: Bigest problem - demonstrated by Ukraine units dozens of times is - owersaturation of the air with Drones.
Any mechanised assault is doomed to fail today without really supperb anti-UAV cover and without own "eyes" in form of own Drones able to withstand enemy ECM and in same time able to locate and strike enemy.
Mental: 99% of western and most of Ukraines analyst still dont understand Putin, and are stubbornly mocking him.
As in this case it was demonstrated many times that western expectations are completelly wrong. because they are rating Putin and his reaction on such humuliation by western standards.
a) Putin understand that his aura is based on his deliberate keeping of a distance from the people - he is Tsar and he is giving orders and waiting for reports.
He is not there to go in front of the masses and admitt his own mistake, or at least snuggle those poor people who lost everything. Not, just a cold bureaucratic attitude = here are your meager monetery compensation and now shut-up and fight.
b) those people who are angered by weak reaction of state institutions can do nothing. They have no alternative center of power to turn on and voice their grief and disgust.
c) in russian medial and informational ecosystem - such informations are woiced few times and then not anymore, so only directly affected people are hurt. The rest know that "benderites were stoped and would be repulsed"... Those few who read mill.bloggers knows that situation isnt that easy, but they are too few and they understand it is futile to challenge authorities.
1. Half of your reasoning is along the lines - “West and Ukraine (can’t solve complex problems, etc) are so messed up, that this operation is doomed to fail”. Even if the proposition is true, then any resistance is futile. Be at Pokrovsk or Kursk.
2. I think that question (and thus the criteria to judge this operation) is whether the deployment of these troops is more efficient at Kursk or at some other place or not at all. And up to now, the results whether measured by territory grabbed, destroyed Russian military assets or just morale boost are satisfactory.
A) I newer say that "this operation is doomed to fail" - Only say that "....reasons why this operation - which was not a bad idea by itself - IMO reached its cumulative point already."
B) Unfortunatelly, there are dozens of example in this two years that "West and Ukraine (can’t solve complex problems, etc) are so messed up..." Problem is that NOBODY want to admitt that Ukraine suffered such braindrain and destruction of human capital that is unprecendent in modern human history - after feb.2022 its even worse and UA government allowed circa 400.000 (maybe even 600.000) mans in draft age to went outside Ukraine. Now those mans are missing and battalions in defense are reduced to platoons and even these units are exhausted.
Even if Russian suffered similar "pogrom" its 4-times larger and has around 650.000 "expendables" whos death would be absolutelly OK, for russian public.
C) "measured by territory grabbed, destroyed Russian military assets or just morale boost ..." territory is not bad, but I bet that nobody in russia really care about some Malaya Lokhnya, or Bolshoye Soldatskoye and if those villages would be razed to ground, so what. Its sda but who cares.
I understand, but how this make "Putin look weak"??? He already lanbasted local officials for slow reaction and Ordered them to make sure that their mistakes would not repeat. Thats what ordinarry russian can see on TV screens.
No he isn't and he is right that way. That was more a provocative reply onto "if you are weaker sit tight and get smashed." as this is definitly not working into Ukrainians favour.
Maybe - and I'm just saying maybe, I don't actually know - all the talk of shortages of Ukrainian troops and materiel has deceived a lot of observers into thinking that Ukraine couldn't possibly have the resources to mount the Kursk operation.
It should also be clear by now that you can't predict this war based on numbers alone. One side is fighting for its survival. The other is fighting for the personal historical significance of a guy in an ivory tower.
I have had several discussions on the topic of this event in recent days and I must say that even among the supporters of Ukraine there is a difference of opinion as to whether this is a good move. I claim that it IS a good move, because it targets exactly the neuralgic point of the little Russian soul. If we didn't know the facts and just shoved tin soldiers around the maps, the whole thing would look like nonsense, but this calculates with the fact that the Russian simply cannot take it through his heart if the chimera about the impregnability of great Russia falls. Normally, it would be an insignificant front, which is enough to stabilize - simply to stop the progress, which actually sooner or later will be stopped by Ukrainian logistics itself. But for them this is an attack on the very essence of the Russian soul, on what actually drives them to those wars of conquest. Pride in the great invincible (ahem) Russia is the only thing they have that defines them. So they finally can't resist and put all their effort into it. It will be a priority, even if it looks insignificant on the military map. But the military map does not contain the endless humiliation, disillusionment and deep shock that the average Russian is currently experiencing. And that's why it can be successful, it can relieve the Ukrainian front. And frankly, I don't see anything on the horizon that could do the same service in that direction anytime soon. It won't be an F16 or another "Wunderwaffe" ... nor will Steiner come...
I would ask: to who can ordinarry russian articulate his "endless humiliation, disillusionment and deep shock". There is nobody who has some power and can question Putins decisions and is ready to harbour those disilusioned russian citizens.
Well perhaps the ordinary Russian can read some Dostoevsky, ponder that great author's philosophy of good vs. evil, take it to heart (i.e., inculturate it within the self), then do nothing about it, but endure all that is unendurable. Unendurable . . . seemingly endless suffering, the great Russian 8th (or 9th?) sacrament [(un)holy mystery].
As our (Czech) 19th century author Karel Havlíček Borovský wrote after his return from Russia, where he went as an enthusiastic Slavist, but returned with this opinion: "Russia is a country of poverty, misery and booze and great literature about poverty, misery and booze. And it only brings the above mentioned to the world. Without exception." :) And his second finding: "Russians like to say that everything is Slavic so that they can then claim that everything Slavic is Russian." Nothing has changed since the 19th century... :)
We all seem to be victims of our own histories. Not only Russians. We have great American myths about the "Rights of Man" and the Contract Theory of Government (John Locke) and all the good moral things that the Enlightenment supposed utters and not always correctly or realistically. The reality shows something somewhat different. For example, weAmericans are victims of African slavery, primarily African-American victims of their particular heritage, but also ironically the larger nation, mostly of Caucasians, some few of whose ancestors (for those not post Civil War immigrants) owned their fellow human beings. And then there is the ethnic cleansing of Indians (Native Americans or First Nations peoples if you prefer). This is just two major examples of "reality." Still we are a nation of promise, I hope. Perhaps some cautious optimism is in order. We are still a young nation "sort of" compared with you Europeans and Asians.
Are we (the U.S.) somewhat like the situation of giving young kids a loaded gun to play with? [yes, a touch of sarcasm. I'm practicing!]
Question regarding logistics. Earlier youve explained the Russian logistics system not using containers. Have the Ukrainian adopted containers for their logistics, or do they not use containers as well?
"With other words: Ukraine is really, ‘damned if it does, and damned if it doesn’t’."
No biggie. When a game changes the exploration of the different aspects takes time: especially when the situation is so unclear. And everybody is happy to add his/her own piece.
ISW has published a good feature article about the Russian global strategy and possible countermeasures (West is too slow, this gives Russia much time to adapt to everything) https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-vulnerable-western-policy-masks-russian-weakness
Fascinating article. Will its conclusions be acted on or are they being acted on in the Kursk offensive?
Nope
Thanks for linking. The title alone tells the story.
Дякую Томе, продовжуйте свою працю, до речі в Україні є журналісти які вас стабільно цитують.
Sometimes I have the feeling that Tom's articles are directly read by Zelensky and the generals. Which is good by the way.
And our military astrologists are basing their recommendations for major operation kick-offs on Tom's out of office days.
Interesting addition to the situation that the Russian Railway was forced to stop receiving and forwarding international traffic towards Belarus, because of the lack of locomotives. looks like partly because the railway is overwhelmed with the extra war demands and partly because even the not always effective sanctions resulted subpar maintenance and repairs, there are simply not enough traction engine to move troops quickly from the south AND serve the transport demand of the industry. I can only hope that somebody at the ZSU had also read the article...
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/14/rossiiskie-regioni-ohvatil-zheleznodorozhnii-kollaps-posle-vtorzheniya-vsu-a139483
Russia is even short of bearings for heavy machines. Most of heavy machine bearings comes from Sweden or USA. China do not make them (in large numbers).
BTW. Sovied Unineon produced them. But although wages in Russia in 90s were fractions of those in the Western EU or US, their factories bankrupt because their bearings were more expensive that those imported from Sweden of USA.
Without the urgent demands of Kursk, Russian rail was operating at maximum capacity and can only meet 93% of the demand.
This part "And the reason is ah-so-sound: the mass of talking-heads – and especially people reporting about weather in the morning, cooking and sports in the afternoon, and Ukraine in the evening - simply can’t cope with the situation."
Reminds me of the Ukraine talk I get into every time, because, well I'm Ukrainian living in Estonia. I been living here since 82, there are tons of people who want to talk to me about war. I will not give into embarrassing details how I know more about Estonian history, than them, proved my point more then once or that I have visited Ukraine hundreds of times and probably know a bit more than random Estonian.
To the point. I wanted to share a story about talking heads who like to discuss Ukraine.
I was invited to dinner, about 10 people, all down to earth, eat only eco, natural, milk my own cow, kinds of foods. Person who was organizing the dinner, is like, a bit of a superstar for these people, everyone listens, nods etc.
So the guy said "I think the biggest threat to humanity is GMOs, they are murdering us with it", everyone was like YES, YES, and lots of bs followed.
I asked, so why don't you stop taking your insulin, he has diabetes, he was confused and wanted to know why would I wish him harm and possible death. Well, insulin is GMO? Silence, gasp, I think I saw blood vessel explode in his eye and it started twitching.
The whole evening was kinda quiet, I left soon after that, did not feel like staying.
Point of the story is, that 99% of people you talk to, about something, like Ukraine, they don't know shit about it. The universe and human stupidity, you, these two infinites :)
The universe and human stupidity, you know, these two infinites :)*
People love to tell stories. Especially when they aren't really familiar with them.
Mostly stories about themselves. But your observstion is certainly valid in general.
The point is the decision-making people eagerly adopt to the prevailing ignorance and stupidity. In case if they are not stupid and ignorant themselves.
Great story. Great last line.
You should have at least briefly explained to everyone present how insulin is synthesized and what bacteria and fungi are needed for. And you took it and left in silence, leaving your acquaintance to solve this riddle by himself. He probably still has eye twitches on this occasion. It was necessary to explain that GMOs are pure science.
Oh c'mon Tom... a bit of rant, irony is fun. I love your work, but try to keep the 'operational' part straightforward and simple to read. Not all of use are native english speakers.
It took me several reads to understand what is going on...
Second this. I'm lucky cause I grew up with the language. My countrymen here in South East Asia...not so much. Hell, they buy into more myths than the anyone else about 'Russian Superiority' than other people
I am an English speaker and it is definately a 2-3 time read to understand because of the sarcasm. I think the writing style should be opening section with sarcasm, main bit no sarcasm and conclusion with part 1 no sarcasm part 2 sarcasm.
I've got it from the first read, though I'm not a native speaker
Me too
Me too! I got it from the first read, but had to "chew" on the wording carefully to extract its full meaning. I like my food "al dente," especially good Italian pasta. I also prefer my sarcasm that way too. Please keep it up, Tom. I might as well find some grisly, ass-backward humor and enjoyment from what can only be called a huge tragedy in progress.
Not a native speaker either, not sure what's so hard about swapping "withdraw" and "advance". Would be a bit easier to picture it all if I didn't have to check each place's location on a map myself, but since Tom admitted spending less time writing these posts than I need to read them, it's understandable :)
Never read 1984 with the ministry of peace?
Be it as it may, I am a native English speaker. Scanning Tom’s text I lose tract of his sarcasm and wonder why he is referencing forward actions as some kind of retreat (???).
Love the reports more when they came with an extra spicy sarcasm doble dose.
Great work!
Thanks Tom!
Good to know that the destruction of Russian assets is going full speed ahead. And if in the mean time some lucky Russians are relieved from the dullness of Putin and his prop idiots, all the better.
Waiting for visual confirmation that access to YouTube was restored in Lhiv.
Thanks again for your hard work and sorry for my english, I use google translation.
I stumbled upon an African pro-Russian propaganda channel. They show FSB images of five Ukrainian prisoners. Do you think they could be elements of the 92nd Mecha? If they had more prisoners they would not hesitate to show them. In another excerpt they have a Ukrainian prisoner speak, perhaps one of the five, and clearly under pressure who recites his text. The orders he supposedly received are so reminiscent of the behavior of the Russians during the invasion of Ukraine (looting valuable objects, shooting men in the legs, killing armed men, not taking prisoners, ...) that it would be comical if it were not so dramatic. I did not put the links because I assume you already have them via Russia.
Yes, three troops from the 92nd were captured by the Russians in Belitsa, three days ago. Their shoulder patches were clear to see - and sure: they're something like 'big news' of the day. Especially for Rybar and other of Pudding's PRBS-industrialists.
....principally because they've declared the Ukrainian offensive into the Kursk Oblast for stopped, at least two times this week alone.
....and then because the last 36 hours, they all fell silent about this area. Probably because the situation is getting better and better. 🤭
It was a real pleasure reading your brilliant assay. Many thanks for valuable information. Glory to Ukraine!
Wait what? Are you saying people speak surzhyk/суржик in the Kursk oblast?
I have no trace of clue what is it called. I'm just quite sure it's no Volta-Congo... ;-)
literally the ukrainian word for a melange of barley and rye(flour), an idiom spoken in eastern parts of Ukraine and the bordering russian oblasts. Meanwhile even heard quite often in Lwiw, because of the refugees from the occupied parts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surzhyk
yes, they speak sth close to north-eastern Ukrainian / surzhyk and understand Ukrainian soldiers perfectly
I dont like that I am devils advocate here but for this moment...
...reasons why this operation - which was not a bad idea by itself - IMO reached its cumulative point already:
Strategic (big politic): this was writen dozens of time that the wrong is on the side of "collective" West (politically impotent, inability to hit russian regime really hard where it is possible and prevention of use of its long reach weapons against airfields) as well as on side of "collective" Ukraine - where too many people just sit and wait that "collective" west must solve this somewhat without much commitment on side of ukraine.
It is obvious that Ukraine leadership is (collectivelly) simply not capable to solve problems - people with enough strategic vision and managerial skills are too few to be able to solve all the necessary task and so many oficials arent mentally and intelectually capable to make right dicision in right time. There is shortage of manpower, supplies and ammunition. Not to talk about supply of FPV drones and those Lyut drones that are hiting russian airports. Until early this year nearly 100% of FPV drones were delivered by volunteer not the state institution. Operations of Lyut drones are going on, which is possitive - but we dont know its cost-effectivnes compared to Russian Geraň/Garbers drones.
Operational-military: As the mentioned manpower problem indicate, for this operation - units from DOnbass frontlines were pulled and redirected to Sudzha-Kursk direction. Unfortunatelly without much recuperation and rest and even if they accomulated a lot of frontline experience = the warfare in defensive / trenches under Pokrovsk is something different than maneuver warfare in enviroment which is different and required really a lot of capable sergeants that can lead their subrodinates.
Technical: Bigest problem - demonstrated by Ukraine units dozens of times is - owersaturation of the air with Drones.
Any mechanised assault is doomed to fail today without really supperb anti-UAV cover and without own "eyes" in form of own Drones able to withstand enemy ECM and in same time able to locate and strike enemy.
Mental: 99% of western and most of Ukraines analyst still dont understand Putin, and are stubbornly mocking him.
As in this case it was demonstrated many times that western expectations are completelly wrong. because they are rating Putin and his reaction on such humuliation by western standards.
a) Putin understand that his aura is based on his deliberate keeping of a distance from the people - he is Tsar and he is giving orders and waiting for reports.
He is not there to go in front of the masses and admitt his own mistake, or at least snuggle those poor people who lost everything. Not, just a cold bureaucratic attitude = here are your meager monetery compensation and now shut-up and fight.
b) those people who are angered by weak reaction of state institutions can do nothing. They have no alternative center of power to turn on and voice their grief and disgust.
c) in russian medial and informational ecosystem - such informations are woiced few times and then not anymore, so only directly affected people are hurt. The rest know that "benderites were stoped and would be repulsed"... Those few who read mill.bloggers knows that situation isnt that easy, but they are too few and they understand it is futile to challenge authorities.
Two objections:
1. Half of your reasoning is along the lines - “West and Ukraine (can’t solve complex problems, etc) are so messed up, that this operation is doomed to fail”. Even if the proposition is true, then any resistance is futile. Be at Pokrovsk or Kursk.
2. I think that question (and thus the criteria to judge this operation) is whether the deployment of these troops is more efficient at Kursk or at some other place or not at all. And up to now, the results whether measured by territory grabbed, destroyed Russian military assets or just morale boost are satisfactory.
A) I newer say that "this operation is doomed to fail" - Only say that "....reasons why this operation - which was not a bad idea by itself - IMO reached its cumulative point already."
B) Unfortunatelly, there are dozens of example in this two years that "West and Ukraine (can’t solve complex problems, etc) are so messed up..." Problem is that NOBODY want to admitt that Ukraine suffered such braindrain and destruction of human capital that is unprecendent in modern human history - after feb.2022 its even worse and UA government allowed circa 400.000 (maybe even 600.000) mans in draft age to went outside Ukraine. Now those mans are missing and battalions in defense are reduced to platoons and even these units are exhausted.
Even if Russian suffered similar "pogrom" its 4-times larger and has around 650.000 "expendables" whos death would be absolutelly OK, for russian public.
C) "measured by territory grabbed, destroyed Russian military assets or just morale boost ..." territory is not bad, but I bet that nobody in russia really care about some Malaya Lokhnya, or Bolshoye Soldatskoye and if those villages would be razed to ground, so what. Its sda but who cares.
> but I bet that nobody in russia really care about some Malaya Lokhnya, or Bolshoye Soldatskoye and if those villages would be razed
Putin cares, because it makes him look weak. And if Putin cares, everybody cares.
I understand, but how this make "Putin look weak"??? He already lanbasted local officials for slow reaction and Ordered them to make sure that their mistakes would not repeat. Thats what ordinarry russian can see on TV screens.
Rommel would have agreed.
Comparion to Rommel might not be taken well by Tom. I have understood him not to be a big fan. But I might have misunderstood some sarcasm of course.
No he isn't and he is right that way. That was more a provocative reply onto "if you are weaker sit tight and get smashed." as this is definitly not working into Ukrainians favour.
Maybe - and I'm just saying maybe, I don't actually know - all the talk of shortages of Ukrainian troops and materiel has deceived a lot of observers into thinking that Ukraine couldn't possibly have the resources to mount the Kursk operation.
It should also be clear by now that you can't predict this war based on numbers alone. One side is fighting for its survival. The other is fighting for the personal historical significance of a guy in an ivory tower.
I have had several discussions on the topic of this event in recent days and I must say that even among the supporters of Ukraine there is a difference of opinion as to whether this is a good move. I claim that it IS a good move, because it targets exactly the neuralgic point of the little Russian soul. If we didn't know the facts and just shoved tin soldiers around the maps, the whole thing would look like nonsense, but this calculates with the fact that the Russian simply cannot take it through his heart if the chimera about the impregnability of great Russia falls. Normally, it would be an insignificant front, which is enough to stabilize - simply to stop the progress, which actually sooner or later will be stopped by Ukrainian logistics itself. But for them this is an attack on the very essence of the Russian soul, on what actually drives them to those wars of conquest. Pride in the great invincible (ahem) Russia is the only thing they have that defines them. So they finally can't resist and put all their effort into it. It will be a priority, even if it looks insignificant on the military map. But the military map does not contain the endless humiliation, disillusionment and deep shock that the average Russian is currently experiencing. And that's why it can be successful, it can relieve the Ukrainian front. And frankly, I don't see anything on the horizon that could do the same service in that direction anytime soon. It won't be an F16 or another "Wunderwaffe" ... nor will Steiner come...
I would ask: to who can ordinarry russian articulate his "endless humiliation, disillusionment and deep shock". There is nobody who has some power and can question Putins decisions and is ready to harbour those disilusioned russian citizens.
Well perhaps the ordinary Russian can read some Dostoevsky, ponder that great author's philosophy of good vs. evil, take it to heart (i.e., inculturate it within the self), then do nothing about it, but endure all that is unendurable. Unendurable . . . seemingly endless suffering, the great Russian 8th (or 9th?) sacrament [(un)holy mystery].
As our (Czech) 19th century author Karel Havlíček Borovský wrote after his return from Russia, where he went as an enthusiastic Slavist, but returned with this opinion: "Russia is a country of poverty, misery and booze and great literature about poverty, misery and booze. And it only brings the above mentioned to the world. Without exception." :) And his second finding: "Russians like to say that everything is Slavic so that they can then claim that everything Slavic is Russian." Nothing has changed since the 19th century... :)
We all seem to be victims of our own histories. Not only Russians. We have great American myths about the "Rights of Man" and the Contract Theory of Government (John Locke) and all the good moral things that the Enlightenment supposed utters and not always correctly or realistically. The reality shows something somewhat different. For example, weAmericans are victims of African slavery, primarily African-American victims of their particular heritage, but also ironically the larger nation, mostly of Caucasians, some few of whose ancestors (for those not post Civil War immigrants) owned their fellow human beings. And then there is the ethnic cleansing of Indians (Native Americans or First Nations peoples if you prefer). This is just two major examples of "reality." Still we are a nation of promise, I hope. Perhaps some cautious optimism is in order. We are still a young nation "sort of" compared with you Europeans and Asians.
Are we (the U.S.) somewhat like the situation of giving young kids a loaded gun to play with? [yes, a touch of sarcasm. I'm practicing!]
I believe that much of doublespeak and bureaucracy has been added to the mixture. The best book I know about the late USSR is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_on_the_Slope
Spicy hot sarcasm today. Right on target too. And, LOL, I love that you can't resist a dig at the ORF.
The new slogan of the VSRF is "To the East!".
Question regarding logistics. Earlier youve explained the Russian logistics system not using containers. Have the Ukrainian adopted containers for their logistics, or do they not use containers as well?
Austrian ORF! Then Ukraine is doomed. It is a well known fact that Austrian ORF was never defeated in a land battle.
"With other words: Ukraine is really, ‘damned if it does, and damned if it doesn’t’."
No biggie. When a game changes the exploration of the different aspects takes time: especially when the situation is so unclear. And everybody is happy to add his/her own piece.
Have faith in them and send the ammo.