Ukraine War, 15 August 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

No idea if it’s the summer heat or something else, but the impression of these days is that, as a phenomena called ‘humanity’, we’re really screwed up.

As first it was ‘great’ that Ukraine launched an attack into Russia. Then everybody began guessing why has Ukraine launched that attack into Russia. Then, because nobody could figure out for sure, the story became that it’s wrong for Ukraine to attack into Russia. Then, because nobody could find out where exactly are the advancing ZSU units, and Kyiv was so unfair and unkind as not to reveal this, nor to say what is it searching for inside Russia, the Ukrainian attack into Russia was declared for a failure and stopped by the Russians. Meanwhile, the latest version is that the decision for Ukraine to attack into Russia was wrong, because the Russian assaults into Donbas did not stop - but are even making progress…

…and, of course, and just like ever since the Russian 6^th Tank Regiment was forced to withdraw while approaching Brovary, back on 8 March 2022, everybody is now uncertain how long can the ZSU sustain this operation, and when is it going to collapse…

With other words: Ukraine is really, ‘damned if it does, and damned if it doesn’t’.

This is an indisputable fact. And the reason is ah-so-sound: the mass of talking-heads – and especially people reporting about weather in the morning, cooking and sports in the afternoon, and Ukraine in the evening - simply can’t cope with the situation. Not even figure out the whys or hows. And when nothing else works, then the ‘news’ are full of complaints from ZSU troops still exposed to the relentless Russian assaults in the Donbas, about how much are they suffering and how far have the Russians advanced… and, therefore, how risky is the Ukrainian attack into Russia.

Come on, people: get sober. If necessary, find yourself a piece of wall that’s free of photos or clocks, and hit it with your foreheads. To help yourself by resetting your brains. No, not just once, and not softly. Please, hit harder. And again. Thank you.

Because – and that’s just a friendly reminder – Ukraine’s situation is ‘risky’ and the country is ‘short of collapse’ ever since it declared independence. Indeed: because life is a deadly affair. 100% for sure.

….except, of course, you’re naïve and short-sighted enough to think Yeltsin & Co were happy and celebrating parties all of the 1990s about that independence, while Pudding became mad about Ukraine only because of Majdan in 2014… or, on 24 February 2022?

…and the Arab-Israeli conflict began on 7 October 2023, eh?

How cute. Though, in such case: by best will, really, nobody and nothing can help you.

And, ‘for those on the other side of the tribune’: so, because both the Western and your own oligarchs were screwing you up for all of the 1990s and 2000s (that’s as far as you can recall: actually, they’re screwing you up at least since around the 17^th Century), now it’s good your own oligarchy is screwing you up even more? And your life is going to get so much better if hordes of your crazed chauvinist mass murderers  continue pulverising, pillaging, looting, and raping all over Ukraine? Because the Russians are internationalists that can’t do any wrong, or because all of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is a ‘NATO-Nazi conspiracy’ and a ‘big game’ in style of the Sykes-Picot Treaty?

Well, if you think that way, you super-clever doves of peace and pluralism, mind that Russia was the third party, and thus neck-deep into the machinations of the Sykes-Picot, too. Indeed, that treaty became known only because one regime in Moscow was toppled and replaced by another, back in 1917, so the new one was keen to demonstrate how evil and irresponsible was the old one…

And then see what has the Sykes-Picot treaty caused.  

That much about that.

For the actual start today, another postcard from Kursk, where not a single Russian soldier is surrendering while defending the Holy Mother Russia; nor is it so that at least 1,000 – though more likely over 2,000 -  have surrendered over the last week. Because the Russian troops are never surrendering and all such reports are just another NATO-Nazi conspiracy…

And, because it’s fake news, here another one, with an entire column of around 30…

….gosh, can’t hold back any more… my hands are going into automatic mode and thus here’s yet another (105+, including Akhmats… who, according to their commanders, are no Akhmats if taken prisoner by the Ukrainians…)

…OK, OK… bringing my fingers and hands under control now…

***

AIR/MISSILE WAR

During the night from 13 to 14 August, the Ukrainians run UAV-strikes on four major Russian air bases:

- Kursk-Vostochny (also known as Khalino; home-base of the 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment equipped with Su-30SMs); reportedly, the local POL-dump was blown up;

- Voronezh/Baltimor (also known as Malshevo, home-base of the 47^th Composite Aviation Regiment, equipped with Su-34s); something was hit and set afire there, but results remain unclear;

- Borisoglebsk (also in Voronezh Oblast; home-base of the 160^th Training Aviation Regiment, equipped with Su-25s and Yak-130s); results unclear;

- Savasleyka (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast; home-base of the 44^th Special Aviation Regiment, equipped with MiG-31Ks). Actually, only the headquarters and the 2^nd Squadron of the 44^th is home-based there (the 1^st Squadron is at Akhtubinsk, the 3^rd at Belaya). The competent local authorities reported that the strike was repelled without any casualties, and the only video of this attack I’ve seen so far (sorry, forgot to ‘save’ the link) has shown a UAV hitting an empty apron. And even if: well, the 44^th didn’t run any Kinzhal strikes for more than a month.

Around the same time, the PSU claimed 17 Shaheds as shot down.

This morning, the PSU claimed 29 Shaheds as shot down inside the Ukrainian airspace.

The VKS flew air strikes against ZSU’s positions in the Korenovo area, on Kindrativka (Ukraine, on the border to Russia), and on Vuhledar. That said, the total number of UMPKs it’s releasing these days is below 100 (definitely down from ‘150+ a day’).

Graffiti on Russian UMPKs on FAB-500M-62s are telling it all: ‘Za Kursk’…

A Russian Iskander-M hit something in downtown Odesa, yesterday.

***

South-West Kursk

Ever since 12 August, when Pudding assigned the task of stopping the Ukrainian terrorist operation into the Kursk Oblast to Lieutenant-General Alexey Dyumin of the FSB (another of Pudding’s former bodyguards and the ‘victor’ of Crimea in 2014), and the FSB thus ordered Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists to stop the Ukrainian offensive, these have done exactly that. Ever since, the Russian armed forces in Kursk are excelling in what is known as mobutu sesse seko kuku ngbendu wa za banga.

How… you don’t understand?

🙄 Ah well…

OK: on behalf of the few here that are clueless about phonetic affairs, that stands for, ‘the warrior who goes from conquest to conquest, leaving a trail of fire in his wake’ - in one of Niger-Congo or Volta-Congo languages. At least theoretically, the third most widely spoken group of languages on this planet.

Should mean: the FSB and Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists – with a little bit support of the VSRF, VDV, Naval Infantry, Border Guards, Austrian ORF and few others – has won numerous brilliant victories. Indeed, the Ukrainians have not only been stopped, but are withdrawing. They are withdrawing so much and so fast that – as announced two days ago (meanwhile this was officially confirmed) – the competent Russian authorities (see: FSB) have issued an (urgent) evacuation order for all the civilians in the Glushkovsky and the Belovsky Districts. West and east of the Sudzha district, respectively. And that because, obviously, and at least according to Russian accounts, the Ukrainian offensive was stopped and did not enter either of two districts.  

And, following the Ukrainian withdrawal from Sudzha, the Ukrainian TV teams were brought to the town to show the ZSU troops distributing humanitarian aid to what is left of the local population (many of whom seem unable to decide if they’re speaking Russian or Ukrainian, and thus are speaking an interesting mix of both… and, perhaps, some of Volta-Niger, too…).

Elsewhere, and clockwise, from West, via North, towards East, and then south (and sorry, no updated map for today; I’m simply too busy):

- After abandoning Snagost, Borki and Spalnoe, the Ukrainian 103^rd Territorial Defence continued withdrawing into the area south and south-west of Korenovo – in general directions of Glushkovo and Troitske.

- North and north-east of Korenovo, the ZSU was not that successful in withdrawing from Vetreno, and is thus since some 36 hours withdrawing into northern Korenovo, plus Kremyanoe, and from Kauchuk towards north. Plus operating in the rear of the 11^th VDV Brigade, somewhere between Aleksandrovka and Kromskie Byki, and all the way ‘up’ to Ivanovskoe, where the traffic along the E38 is still interrupted as of this morning. The Ukrainians are withdrawing so much that the Russians are happy whenever they discover one of enemy MRAPs or APCs and then miss it by their Lancets.

- The FSB is meanwhile pumping ever more of VSRF’s recruits with 2-4 weeks of training into the area (nominally) controlled by the camping 11^th VDV Brigade: approximately between Kremyanoe via Pogrebki to Rozgrebli. And, when the Ukrainians withdrew into that place, the VDV advanced form Malaya Loknya in direction of… was it Moscow? Reportedly, that’s some bigger village further north-east… nah, sorry: it was only Bakhtinka…

- East of the 11^th VDV, the ZSU has not only withdrawn to Kozachya Loknya and Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, but also to Russkoe Porechnoe and then withdrew towards north, in between of that place and Bolshoe Soldatskoe…

Two Ukrainian MRAPs knocked out either somewhere north of Malaya Loknya or west of Bolshoe Soldatskoe.

- On the eastern side of Sudzha, after withdrawing from Martynovka, the ZSU withdrew to Russkaya Konopelka, Ulanok, and Belitsa. Foremost because the 810^th Naval Infantry was victorious in Martynovka. Therefore, the latest version is now that it was the 810^th Naval Infantry that defeated the Ukrainians in Belitsa and captured two BTR-4s, four days ago, too…

This was actually no BTR-4: rather another US-made MRAP. But hey: it was captured by the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, that was a major victory, and thus the Ukrainian offensive is over…

….unless you’re from the Russia-occupied Donbas, of course. Then the version is that this Ukrainian attack was defeated by the 15^th Motor-Rifle…

BTW, while advancing from Sudzha, the heroic FSB forgot to destroy files in its local headquarters…

Indeed, because of that Ukrainian defeat, and general Ukrainian withdrawal (indeed: because the Ukrainian offensive was stopped… already days ago), the FSB – and, therefore: all of Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists, too – is in delirium of happiness. Even more so because on 13 August it turned out that except for the battered remnants of the 488^th Motor-Rifle Regiment and few tanks of the 4^th Tank Regiment, and in the aftermath of Ka-52s and Su-25s of the glorious VKS demolishing at least two battalions of own troops – the fantastic Russian Armed Forces have no troops left for the next 15-20 kilometres. Because it was down to Akhmat to defend Mother Russia. Including the Glushkovsky District.

Man, how proud must every single Russian be when it’s on Kadyrov’s Chechens to defend Mother Russia!

Therefore, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have released videos from 2023, showing VKS’ Su-25s attacking Ukrainian positions in the Soledar area, or yet more videos showing Ka-52 smashing VSRF vehicles… Pure, distilled, indisputable Russian victory there. Indeed, from victory to victory, leaving a trail of fire in the wake: can’t wait for the FSB to be proven correct in its decision to deploy 30,000-40,000 clueless and confused recruits to this battle, instead of moving yet more of reserves from Ukraine to the Kursk Oblast…

- South of Sudzha, the 92^nd Mech and SSO withdrew through Plekhovo, Borki, and Spalne to Kamyshnoe, and through northern Giri to Peschanoye, so that the competent Russian authorities now must pulverise Kamyshnoe by their artillery. Obviously trying to cope the Ukrainian move south of them, the victorious Russian troops advanced from Belitsa in eastern direction, too.

….and then, there were few other Ukrainian withdrawals about which I do not feel free to chat right now: I’m sure we’re going to see more about them in the coming days. Think, most important is that right now, you’ve got the picture, my dear reader.

Ah, you want to know why am I so ‘bitterly sarcastic’ today?

The problem is, ladies and gentlemen, that this is a manoeuvre battle. A battle of movement. A battle of (at least for Ukrainians) driving around enemy flanks into the enemy rear (something the Russians are fearing, while not really able of doing to the Ukrainians). It’s a battle of ZSU troops suddenly appearing deep behind Russian positions and the Russians being happy if they can open fire before they hit them or disappear. And the problem is that there are next to no frontlines: thus, all the war-mappers with their clearly-drawin frontlines and nicely marked grey zones and whatever… in reality, all of that is useless. An attempt of bringing some order into a general chaos – because it often takes longer to explain what is another of Ukrainian ‘DRG-groups’ doing, than they actually spend in one place.

The problem is that, just like back in May 1940, the ‘media’ – mainstream (and/or, nowadays: the social) – simply can’t cope with developments. And so, just like the French newspapers were reporting that ‘everything was fine’ and ‘local German assaults in the Sedan area’ were ‘quickly dealt with’ even as of 17-20 May 1940, so nowadays the Ukrainian offensive is wrong, was stopped, and the ZSU is short of collapse…

Another problem is that most of units on both sides are neither complete, nor including only their own elements. Both the GenStabs in Kyiv and in Moscow are patching up with whatever is on hand. See that 11^th VDV Brigade as example: meanwhile, it’s comprising (not sure if it’s really ‘controlling’) elements from some 8-9 different battalions and regiments from as many different regiments and brigades, respectivelly. The ‘garrison’ of Korenovo is consisting of the VKS Rifle Regiment plus elements from 3-4 other regiments and brigades, too. Similarly, the Ukrainian 80^th and 82^nd Airborne are actually including only their headquarters, perhaps two or three own companies, and then elements of 4-5 different other brigades. The composition of the 92^nd Mech appears to be rather similar by nature…

Thus, don’t be surprised if you get to hear the very same units are fighting somewhere in northern Kharkiv or Chasiv Yar, or Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector. That’s what I intend to cover in the ‘Part 2’…

(…to be continued…)