Good morning everybody! Just a short one for today (I’m still short on time). Essentially, Ukrainians are still trying to punch through the forward Russian minefields in most of southern Zaproizhzhya and Donetsk. I’m emphasising this for clarity: minefields, with millions of mines. That’s the biggest problem of the ZSU of the last few days. The Russians are sowing new minefields as fast as they can, which - from their point of view - is crucial because at the same time, and regardless how ‘well-entrenched’, their troops are suffering severe losses to the ZSU’s artillery- and long-range fire. Thus, they need more minefields, to prevent Ukrainians from actually reaching their positions…
Ironically, this resulted in a situation where, even years later certain Serbian veterans of that war are still insistent that they've shot down two B-2s....
Jun 14, 2023·edited Jun 14, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Great write up, No one is providing such great assessment elsewhere. I remember the Ukrainians using similar mining systems last year to punish the Russians. It's great to hear the Russians are killing their own with these mines. On the other hand, I wonder whether we can pick up these mine vehicles using some airborne/space sensors and fingerprint them so even when they're moving we know its a "Russian Zemodeliye ISDM". Then as soon as it starts launching, this data is instantly sent to a HIMARS launcher so it can be "HIMARSED". Seems like ground based counter battery radars+ HIMARS is not fast enough or we're not providing enough of them/dont have enough of them to give.
That's same with any other vehicles - it's possible to hide them, move them in night and it was foggy and cloudy last few days there, etc. If it would be possible to track valuable vehicles from the space, then Russia would be able to destroy Ukrainians SAMs, artillery, ... easily too.
We can track military vehicles from space even when there are clouds and fog. I just dont know if US has put in place information systems to provide that data securely and timely to the Ukrainians. Or how functional it would be for what Ukraine is doing. We're giving them coordinates of ground equipment from those spy satellites for sure but something needs to improve.
Jun 14, 2023·edited Jun 14, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
That Pudding meeting together with other events, like Shoigu - Prigozhin disputes is a small but important shift. It means - Pudding is not commanding everything, there are other players he has to take into account. (Well, these players are loyal, but compare this with the meeting before the war has started https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucEs0nBuowE).
Hello Tom, I been following you since you covered was in Karabakh in 2020. While I am cheering UAF to liberate occupied land please pay attention of part of " fake news". Even the links that you provide referring to " fake news" , when you scroll down to your twitter source you will see in the comments videos and not as you presume AI generated photos. Biased statements will not change the course of the war. Ig UAF is doing great why Melnyk is asking for more Leopards. It is as well worrying that in the USA narrative is changing that " the USA warned UAF not to blow up the NS", that Zalyzhny is nowhere to be seen ( he was commander in chief at that time). Indeed RF has a lot of casualties both in personal and equipment but UAF offensive , with such attrition rate will be without steam in next 2-3 weeks, Still way to go to the main defensive line. Thanks for your good work
When you're about to board an airliner, Samir, are you demanding the pilot to discuss with you the details of the flight? Technical condition of the aircraft? Checklist procedures? Communications? Load and weights? V1? V2? Flight altitude? Speed? Route? Weather....?
I do not. Therefore, I _guess_, you don't do that either (at least I haven't heard yet that you do).
Why?
Because we both are _assuming_ (see: guessing) that, _after years of training_, the pilot is well-trained and knows what is he doing. And if not, there's a co-pilot, and the ground control etc., with _additional years of training_. There's a 'well-oiled system', developed _over the years_, based on extensive experiences - taking care for you, me and millions of others to safely reach their destination. Every single day.
....while pilots make no mistakes... and co-pilots, too.... and ground controllers even less so.... and equipment never malfunctions..?
But, we all are still not discussing all the details with pilots, ground control, and maintenance personnel, before every single flight....?
Isn't that irresponsible?
Now, why am I explaining all of this to you, and asking these questions?
I'm in this 'business/hobby' (see: 'war monitoring') for about 35+ years now. Just for orientation: 'my first war' followed in this fashion (though without the internet, back then), was 'Falklands' of 1982.
As such, I've got 'more war-monitoring' experience than the mass of commercial airline pilots has experience in flying their aircraft (their careers are rarely lasting more than 20 years).
Still, I do not claim I'm never making mistakes. On the contrary: I would say I'm making 'at least 50', every single day. It's like with my languages: I'm speaking several fluently, and can read another few - but I'm far from perfect in any of them. And, generally, my vocabulary is quite limited, no matter what language.
That said, I do feel free to 'assume' I know what am I doing.
And, I do think I have the right to request people jumping to conclusions about me (the same way they're jumping to conclusions about my nationality, multiple times, every single day), to consider a few things.
For example, and if nothing else, a quick look at the (partial) list of my published books (see here: https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php?sid=888f2322899b9f4dd2f4f961ba0cde74) should (I hope so) promptly 'reveal' one thing: nah, it's not the number of my publications, but the fact that I'm constantly - for years and for decades - cooperating with plenty of people.
I'm a nerd, no doubt. A buff too. Call me 'controversial', if you like. All no problem. But, if you engage just one more brain cell, I guess a quick look at that list should leave no doubts: I'm also no 'lone-wolf' kind of idiot, nor a self-promoter. Instead, I'm 'networking' all the time: searching for ways to get in touch with people, puting people in touch with each other, discussing 'things' with them.
Why am I doing that? Because that's the very essence of what I'm doing. Because I cannot possibly know everything (physically and mentally), and because the more we are the cleverer we are, too: the more knowledge is coming together, the more contacts, the more experience etc.
That's how this 'system' works. No bachelor-degrees, no PhDs, no Dr-titles, no prizes, no super-cameras and beautifully designed blogs and YouTube-appearances, or whatever can help - if one does not network, have contacts, and works, activelly, with other people, cross-checking all the time. If nothing else, that IS making sure that even if one of involved people is not thinking soberly, '15 others' - will.
But no: it's always easier to jump to conclusions....?
I know well what you been doing for past 35 years that's the reason why I am following you. I am humanitarian worker for past 29 years working in the file of people that went missing in relation to armed conflict, was in Ukraine for year and half as well. I think that I have as well leverage on information from the spot, direct witnesses and many other sources of information to state above. I do my job not as hobby but for the sake of helping to affected families no matter from which side they are coming. Do you have idea/information of number of soldiers that are counted as the missing or captured, that could be as well indicator how " good " things are developing for sides of the war? While I appreciate your sense of sarcasm let others as well to express their point of view without teaching and preaching :) I was as well soldier during war in BiH, infantry, fighting on a side of the BiH Government for 3 and half years, from first day of war till Deyton PA. Have a nice day and looking forward for next report.
In America it is "fashionable" to thank our service mebers when we see them in uniform. I'd like to thank both of you, and everyone else, doing the unseen work. Cheers!
Russian national idea: if you can't steal, then litter as much as possible. Make this land uninhabitable for the next 100 years. They have always been like that.
Your very informative dirty reports read to me as if a crucial moment of the counter-offensive has just arrived.
Despite the technically superior Western vehicles, despite the fact that (as you wrote earlier) a large part of the Russian artillery in the area was destroyed or withdrawn, despite the fact that this offensive was meticulously planned and the terrain analyzed for months, and despite the that the Ukrainian infantry almost always performed better than the Russian I just see a standstill.
Of course I hope that it will continue under the cover of Opsec, but if you look at the officially confirmed, fast, recaptures and what the Ukrainians used for it, you can't speak of a successful offensive yet.
I know quick successes are not to be expected and the offensive can go on for weeks. But what worries me a bit is that according to your reports the Russians are losing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles/artillery, at the same time the Ukraine has only manageable losses and the Russians are still able to (almost completely) stop the Ukrainians.
Is it just the minefields?
You're guaranteed to have a million more info than me, which you certainly don't want to spread, but despite the Russians' good defense line, I (as a couch general) expected that at least on the contact line in the south, a few more places would be conquered that were previously in the gray area or briefly were behind.
Only one conquest was officially reported from the areas of Orikhiv, Huliapole and Vuhledar, if I'm not mistaken.
A) The Russians have collected massive reserves; the longer the ZSU does nothing, the more Russian reserves will be around.
B) The Western media (especially the US) is already now 'in panic over our taxpayer's money being squandered by incompetent Ukrainians' (because the mass of Western 'Experten' can't even count 1+1, not to talk about analysing an ongoing battle)...
Means: Kyiv hasn't got the time to 'do nothing for months'. On the other hand, nobody said that what it does is 'bad'. It's just a few ZSU COs that are still fighting 'Zhukov-style'. Meanwhile, even these seem to have learned their lessons.
Jun 14, 2023·edited Jun 14, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Btw, I know you face a lot of strange Ukrainian names of the settlements.
"GOrod" is Ukrainian, "grad" is russian.
So "BelgOrOd" shows it was originally named in Ukrainian languadge, in Russian it would be Belgrad ( like Serbian capital ) or LeninGrad, StalinGrad not StalingOrOd
I think what keeps Ukraine from attacking Belgorod and other targets in russia or doing so via RDK proxies is overdependence on western weapon and so on western opinion.
Love your work, Tom. Thank you for your clear and analytical reports. Always very educational and informative. Glad I found your reports and been reading "short ones" and longer ones since 2/2022. We need yours kind of reporting. Twitter, Telegram etc storms are a mess and you cannot find decent analysis (except a few exceptions ) there.
Hi Tom. In the past you have wondered, what have happened 02/24/22 on the border between Kherson oblast and Crimea and who was responsible for the collapse of ZSU on southern Ukraine.
Such a biased article. Always pointing out that the Russians are failing when in reality they're successfully demolishing entire Ukrainian Armoured formations maybe not in one go but a combination of Attack helicopters, ATGM teams and Lancet Kamikazes on the artillery gun's
Oh yes: Venik was 'in a class of his own'. ;-)
Did he included B2 bomber in that list as well?
Not only one.
Ironically, this resulted in a situation where, even years later certain Serbian veterans of that war are still insistent that they've shot down two B-2s....
Great write up, No one is providing such great assessment elsewhere. I remember the Ukrainians using similar mining systems last year to punish the Russians. It's great to hear the Russians are killing their own with these mines. On the other hand, I wonder whether we can pick up these mine vehicles using some airborne/space sensors and fingerprint them so even when they're moving we know its a "Russian Zemodeliye ISDM". Then as soon as it starts launching, this data is instantly sent to a HIMARS launcher so it can be "HIMARSED". Seems like ground based counter battery radars+ HIMARS is not fast enough or we're not providing enough of them/dont have enough of them to give.
That's same with any other vehicles - it's possible to hide them, move them in night and it was foggy and cloudy last few days there, etc. If it would be possible to track valuable vehicles from the space, then Russia would be able to destroy Ukrainians SAMs, artillery, ... easily too.
You need to read up on the real Russian satellite capabilities, they do not have real time more like 2 week delay.
We can track military vehicles from space even when there are clouds and fog. I just dont know if US has put in place information systems to provide that data securely and timely to the Ukrainians. Or how functional it would be for what Ukraine is doing. We're giving them coordinates of ground equipment from those spy satellites for sure but something needs to improve.
That Pudding meeting together with other events, like Shoigu - Prigozhin disputes is a small but important shift. It means - Pudding is not commanding everything, there are other players he has to take into account. (Well, these players are loyal, but compare this with the meeting before the war has started https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucEs0nBuowE).
Timothy Snyder calls this "Return of politics" https://snyder.substack.com/p/politics-returns-to-russia and that may be the beginning of the end of the Pudding's regime.
Hello Tom, I been following you since you covered was in Karabakh in 2020. While I am cheering UAF to liberate occupied land please pay attention of part of " fake news". Even the links that you provide referring to " fake news" , when you scroll down to your twitter source you will see in the comments videos and not as you presume AI generated photos. Biased statements will not change the course of the war. Ig UAF is doing great why Melnyk is asking for more Leopards. It is as well worrying that in the USA narrative is changing that " the USA warned UAF not to blow up the NS", that Zalyzhny is nowhere to be seen ( he was commander in chief at that time). Indeed RF has a lot of casualties both in personal and equipment but UAF offensive , with such attrition rate will be without steam in next 2-3 weeks, Still way to go to the main defensive line. Thanks for your good work
When you're about to board an airliner, Samir, are you demanding the pilot to discuss with you the details of the flight? Technical condition of the aircraft? Checklist procedures? Communications? Load and weights? V1? V2? Flight altitude? Speed? Route? Weather....?
I do not. Therefore, I _guess_, you don't do that either (at least I haven't heard yet that you do).
Why?
Because we both are _assuming_ (see: guessing) that, _after years of training_, the pilot is well-trained and knows what is he doing. And if not, there's a co-pilot, and the ground control etc., with _additional years of training_. There's a 'well-oiled system', developed _over the years_, based on extensive experiences - taking care for you, me and millions of others to safely reach their destination. Every single day.
....while pilots make no mistakes... and co-pilots, too.... and ground controllers even less so.... and equipment never malfunctions..?
But, we all are still not discussing all the details with pilots, ground control, and maintenance personnel, before every single flight....?
Isn't that irresponsible?
Now, why am I explaining all of this to you, and asking these questions?
I'm in this 'business/hobby' (see: 'war monitoring') for about 35+ years now. Just for orientation: 'my first war' followed in this fashion (though without the internet, back then), was 'Falklands' of 1982.
As such, I've got 'more war-monitoring' experience than the mass of commercial airline pilots has experience in flying their aircraft (their careers are rarely lasting more than 20 years).
Still, I do not claim I'm never making mistakes. On the contrary: I would say I'm making 'at least 50', every single day. It's like with my languages: I'm speaking several fluently, and can read another few - but I'm far from perfect in any of them. And, generally, my vocabulary is quite limited, no matter what language.
That said, I do feel free to 'assume' I know what am I doing.
And, I do think I have the right to request people jumping to conclusions about me (the same way they're jumping to conclusions about my nationality, multiple times, every single day), to consider a few things.
For example, and if nothing else, a quick look at the (partial) list of my published books (see here: https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php?sid=888f2322899b9f4dd2f4f961ba0cde74) should (I hope so) promptly 'reveal' one thing: nah, it's not the number of my publications, but the fact that I'm constantly - for years and for decades - cooperating with plenty of people.
I'm a nerd, no doubt. A buff too. Call me 'controversial', if you like. All no problem. But, if you engage just one more brain cell, I guess a quick look at that list should leave no doubts: I'm also no 'lone-wolf' kind of idiot, nor a self-promoter. Instead, I'm 'networking' all the time: searching for ways to get in touch with people, puting people in touch with each other, discussing 'things' with them.
Why am I doing that? Because that's the very essence of what I'm doing. Because I cannot possibly know everything (physically and mentally), and because the more we are the cleverer we are, too: the more knowledge is coming together, the more contacts, the more experience etc.
That's how this 'system' works. No bachelor-degrees, no PhDs, no Dr-titles, no prizes, no super-cameras and beautifully designed blogs and YouTube-appearances, or whatever can help - if one does not network, have contacts, and works, activelly, with other people, cross-checking all the time. If nothing else, that IS making sure that even if one of involved people is not thinking soberly, '15 others' - will.
But no: it's always easier to jump to conclusions....?
Ho-hum...
I know well what you been doing for past 35 years that's the reason why I am following you. I am humanitarian worker for past 29 years working in the file of people that went missing in relation to armed conflict, was in Ukraine for year and half as well. I think that I have as well leverage on information from the spot, direct witnesses and many other sources of information to state above. I do my job not as hobby but for the sake of helping to affected families no matter from which side they are coming. Do you have idea/information of number of soldiers that are counted as the missing or captured, that could be as well indicator how " good " things are developing for sides of the war? While I appreciate your sense of sarcasm let others as well to express their point of view without teaching and preaching :) I was as well soldier during war in BiH, infantry, fighting on a side of the BiH Government for 3 and half years, from first day of war till Deyton PA. Have a nice day and looking forward for next report.
....as long as neither of us amputates somebody's leg while trying to save his testicle.... ;-) - 'everything's fine', mate.
In America it is "fashionable" to thank our service mebers when we see them in uniform. I'd like to thank both of you, and everyone else, doing the unseen work. Cheers!
Thank you!💙💛
Russian national idea: if you can't steal, then litter as much as possible. Make this land uninhabitable for the next 100 years. They have always been like that.
I think War Gonzo is Pegov, not Kots.
Did I mix them up (again)...?
Kots is from Komsomolskaya Pravda, the Tabloid press
Komsomoslkaya Pravda?
....oh dear: that's bringing back some memories (from over 30 years ago, arguably)...
For future reference, via Rob Lee.
http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5950
Same sh.t.
Your very informative dirty reports read to me as if a crucial moment of the counter-offensive has just arrived.
Despite the technically superior Western vehicles, despite the fact that (as you wrote earlier) a large part of the Russian artillery in the area was destroyed or withdrawn, despite the fact that this offensive was meticulously planned and the terrain analyzed for months, and despite the that the Ukrainian infantry almost always performed better than the Russian I just see a standstill.
Of course I hope that it will continue under the cover of Opsec, but if you look at the officially confirmed, fast, recaptures and what the Ukrainians used for it, you can't speak of a successful offensive yet.
I know quick successes are not to be expected and the offensive can go on for weeks. But what worries me a bit is that according to your reports the Russians are losing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles/artillery, at the same time the Ukraine has only manageable losses and the Russians are still able to (almost completely) stop the Ukrainians.
Is it just the minefields?
You're guaranteed to have a million more info than me, which you certainly don't want to spread, but despite the Russians' good defense line, I (as a couch general) expected that at least on the contact line in the south, a few more places would be conquered that were previously in the gray area or briefly were behind.
Only one conquest was officially reported from the areas of Orikhiv, Huliapole and Vuhledar, if I'm not mistaken.
I'll address this tomorrow to some detail, Chris.
It's Zemledeliye, not Zemodeliye. Meaning "agriculture". Nice naming these freaks come up with...
Sad to hear that orcs found a new solution.
Prolonging the war give them chance to find something new again and again
Afaik War Gonzo is Pegov, not Kots.
Thx. I'm always mixing the two all the time. Not really paying attention about their fabrications, and bad in memorising names, anyway.
Long and bloody campaign ahead... and mines... Thank you Tom for your realistic assessments, as usual.
I am afraid they will use this division counter attack to save time and mine and populate with reserves positions behind them.
So Ukraine can destroy this division but due to stop for several days it gives them time.
From the other hand, Dnipro will dry on 200 km front which might allow Ukrainians to cross it somewhere
African battles were very small. Hard to study from them.
Germans had 5 mil on Eastern front.
How much did they have in Africa? 50 k? 150k?
Even Romania, Hungary, Italy, Finland - each of them had more then entire African army.
Even Spain had a blue division of 50k or something.
So, yes, you can look at those battles.
But its a small episodes without any impact on strategy
Presumably the roads are still there, maybe deep under mud or partially washed away
I wonder why they said about counter-offensive 6 month instead of playing card of victim with no weapons and then surprise. Like they did in Kharkiv.
I think, might be western politisians who announced all the time this and that weapons and even said "now Ukraine got all weapons they need" and so on
That wouldn't work any more.
A) The Russians have collected massive reserves; the longer the ZSU does nothing, the more Russian reserves will be around.
B) The Western media (especially the US) is already now 'in panic over our taxpayer's money being squandered by incompetent Ukrainians' (because the mass of Western 'Experten' can't even count 1+1, not to talk about analysing an ongoing battle)...
Means: Kyiv hasn't got the time to 'do nothing for months'. On the other hand, nobody said that what it does is 'bad'. It's just a few ZSU COs that are still fighting 'Zhukov-style'. Meanwhile, even these seem to have learned their lessons.
If orcs has massive reserves, then its probably reasonable to force them into attack in Novosilka direction.
Better then to storm mines and artillery positions.
And still, their reserves are not enough to cover Belgorod.
I would like to capture Belgorod and conduct refferendum to join Ukraine.
And let them sit with their mines on the south
Its his problem
When are they going to attack? Where are they going to attack? Are they going to attack...?
Nobody can say for sure. Thus, Ukraine 'had to move'.
And re. Belgorod: with hindsight, appears to be a 'good idea'. But, that hindsight is related to a 'big raid', not to an 'all out ZSU offensive'.
So again: who can say....?
Ukraine is not an aggressor in this war. It is a victim of a bestial war of extermination.
This is tragic enough. No need to worsen that by converting Ukraine into an aggressor.
Its not an agression. Its a Special Military Belgorod Operation and Belgorod peoples republic votes to join Ukraine :)
And let russia sits on Azov behind their defence
Btw, I know you face a lot of strange Ukrainian names of the settlements.
"GOrod" is Ukrainian, "grad" is russian.
So "BelgOrOd" shows it was originally named in Ukrainian languadge, in Russian it would be Belgrad ( like Serbian capital ) or LeninGrad, StalinGrad not StalingOrOd
I think what keeps Ukraine from attacking Belgorod and other targets in russia or doing so via RDK proxies is overdependence on western weapon and so on western opinion.
Why western should not like if Ukraine get Belgorod? Its better for them in Ukraine take entire Russia and made it a Ukrainian province
Love your work, Tom. Thank you for your clear and analytical reports. Always very educational and informative. Glad I found your reports and been reading "short ones" and longer ones since 2/2022. We need yours kind of reporting. Twitter, Telegram etc storms are a mess and you cannot find decent analysis (except a few exceptions ) there.
Hi Tom. In the past you have wondered, what have happened 02/24/22 on the border between Kherson oblast and Crimea and who was responsible for the collapse of ZSU on southern Ukraine.
Nowadays all this story reveals on the internet.
https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid02u4Ar2ZLQ4FsbFHTXmxs8bkNgfVRDz4hgpnWe77mYueRabSi8viZc8gpgdLtBfcLel?__cft__%5B0%5D=AZU0jriuRdhcNuYYa2YAeSMThHt5J5apzYM5IOcqxI-Endd2vVjIsgSVMX8lGlGxqwvhxItAnS3BxYqIYqT9kCN5jU8oBaImiri6le5bkniRLeI-LoHjeFg3p4cnq-yuKv4wq1I80d3izgy7IbTVUGSfnAbZLKvbepsaS5czqaNf9hA59UlO1zi-iHcB2ljE5mk&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
and the video https://youtu.be/bQE48konp3U
both sides are incompletely objective. NOT brevity always leads away from the truth and steals the reader's time
Such a biased article. Always pointing out that the Russians are failing when in reality they're successfully demolishing entire Ukrainian Armoured formations maybe not in one go but a combination of Attack helicopters, ATGM teams and Lancet Kamikazes on the artillery gun's
Am I forcing you to read, 'Rifraff'?
Ignore. Go trolling somebody else. For example: Satanic mini-Biden zombies on dope are just three doors down the corridor.
I turn them off, just like in your case.