Ukraine War, 14 June 2023
Good morning everybody!
Just a short one for today (I’m still short on time).
Essentially, Ukrainians are still trying to punch through the forward Russian minefields in most of southern Zaproizhzhya and Donetsk. I’m emphasising this for clarity: minefields, with millions of mines. That’s the biggest problem of the ZSU of the last few days. The Russians are sowing new minefields as fast as they can, which - from their point of view - is crucial because at the same time, and regardless how ‘well-entrenched’, their troops are suffering severe losses to the ZSU’s artillery- and long-range fire. Thus, they need more minefields, to prevent Ukrainians from actually reaching their positions…
No matter what are all the possible Russian fake-news-industrialists reporting (and this ‘business’ is meanwhile really an ‘industry of strategic importance’ in Russia of our days, see below for details), the counterattack of the Russian 127th MRD in the Vremivka Bulge was stopped cold, two days ago. While costly (RUMINT has it, the Russians lost over 50 armoured fighting vehicles, two of which can be seen on the photo below): it failed to recover any kind of positions.
I know, this is ‘entirely unexplainable’ to numerous ‘Experten’ monitoring my reporting, because…. well, cleaning your table is a quick task.
However, on a battlefield stretching over an area of about 15 by 20 kilometres, and in the case counterattacks of this size and ferocity, ‘cleaning’ is taking time.
This one did manage to force Ukrainians to concentrate their forces to the Staromaiorske-Urozhaine area. Foremost, destroying an entire division is a different type of engagement than destroying - de-facto - isolated positions of single Russian companies and battalions. It is taking time to find and knock out all the hundreds of Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and guns, and then mop up the terrain for survivors of thousands of their troops scattered ‘all over the place’. It is taking time to recover own casualties, repair damaged equipment, and then bring yet more ammunition and supplies forward, too.
Means: counterattacks like this one, always have their effects.
‘Nevermind’: while busy smashing the 127th MRD, Ukrainians then overrun the Russians on the other (western) side of the 'Vermivka Bulge' , liberating Levadne in the process.
***
Interestingly, while his hordes in southern Zaporizhzhya are cut off from their supplies - because Ukrainians blew up two bridges on the railway connecting the Crimea with Melitopol, about a week ago - Pudding (or one of his doubles) was busy meeting his 'best sources of good news' (and pay attention: he did so without a '40-metres-long' table in between). See, characters like Sladkov, Pegov & Kots ('War Gonzo'), Poddubny, Filatov, Kulko, Rudenko, Steshin, Gazdiev, Zimenkin, Agranovich, Kuksenkova, Ushenin, etc. - who are meanwhile excelling at fabricating 'good news' all the time.
What ‘good news’ you ask?
See: fake 'deestroyed Ukrainian T-80’; see fake ‘destroyed Ukrainian mine-clearing tanks and MRAPs’; or fake ‘abandoned Ukrainian Leopards’….plus ‘Russia recovered Staromayorske’, and ‘Russia recovered Makarivka’, and ‘Russia recovered Storozheve’…. The only kind of news Pudding is ready to hear nowadays - and all the possible ‘Experten’, bothsiders, and journos in the West are happy to fall for.
Actually (see: in the real world), and again: except for lies, fabrications, and fake news, the primary Russian weapon of the last few days are MINES (as one can read in accounts of involved ZSU troops, too).
Have already mentioned them, few days ago, but here again, to make sure: this is the Russian Zemlodeliye ISDM. A multiple rocket launcher capable of firing 50 rockets with cluster warheads, containing mines, over a range of 5-15km:
There are relatively few of them, but the VSRF seems to have huge stocks of rockets with mines for them.
Because of such weapons, mines are literally ‘everywhere’, and then in such immense numbers, in such ‘unexpected’ positions, in such a random manner (see: without the mine-sowing units informing troops around them where are they sowing mines), that Russian vehicles are regularly running into their own mines…
Great write up, No one is providing such great assessment elsewhere. I remember the Ukrainians using similar mining systems last year to punish the Russians. It's great to hear the Russians are killing their own with these mines. On the other hand, I wonder whether we can pick up these mine vehicles using some airborne/space sensors and fingerprint them so even when they're moving we know its a "Russian Zemodeliye ISDM". Then as soon as it starts launching, this data is instantly sent to a HIMARS launcher so it can be "HIMARSED". Seems like ground based counter battery radars+ HIMARS is not fast enough or we're not providing enough of them/dont have enough of them to give.
That Pudding meeting together with other events, like Shoigu - Prigozhin disputes is a small but important shift. It means - Pudding is not commanding everything, there are other players he has to take into account. (Well, these players are loyal, but compare this with the meeting before the war has started https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucEs0nBuowE).
Timothy Snyder calls this "Return of politics" https://snyder.substack.com/p/politics-returns-to-russia and that may be the beginning of the end of the Pudding's regime.