43 Comments

To replace an incompetent with a competent, one first needs to find a "reasonably free" competent. Perhaps that's not as easy as it sounds nowadays...

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As long a Syrsky is the Glavcom: there is simply no way that could ever happen.

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What I said can also be applied to the idea of replacing Syrsky :) (or Zelensky)

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For that, Zelensky would have to find himself somebody he considers 'loyal enough'. And, since Zelensky can't tie his shoelaces without permission from Yermak...

...with other words: no way for this to happen as long as both Zelensky and Syrsky are in place.

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So, as the Constitution says, "until after the war".

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Tom: first of all, thank you, as always.

What do you think of the last batch of the recently promoted, and supposedly young and competent officers - Drapaty, Palisa, Apostol? And generally, is the "next layer" of ZSU officers competent enough?

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Agree, but it would help if the incompetent in chief didn’t interfere. I think it is clear that Ukraine has a lot of innovative and clever commanders at at least battalion level. Use some of them higher up. Yes, some will fall to the Peter principle, but not all.

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I was wondering ... perhaps I am succumbing to conspiracy theories! ... ahem! ahem! AHEM!!! ... if some of this incompetence might be the result of "somebody" [...ies] being on the FSB payroll????

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However tempting this might be, as I also told myself Syrsky probably is either an incompetent idiot or a Russian mole, I still follow Occam's razor.

This leads me to the conclusion that Syrsky is walking around in shoes several numbers too big for him. He is likely a competent Brigade commander, but that is it.

His obsession with micromanagement of too many units leads to enormous stress for himself and of course others, inevitable mistakes and inevitable delayed and questionable decisions.

By acting like this he isn't a solution, but part of the problem.

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Well I was not pointing specifically to Syrsky, but I suppose he is the elephant in the living room who is the main subject of discussion. **LOL** I had commented on previous substack posts (of Tom Cooper) about the U.S. Civil War and Confederate generals promoted from brigade to division or from division to corp, for example, serving competently at the lower level, but less than adequately on the higher level. The old Peter Principle that has already been discussed on the Sarcastosaurus substack seemingly applies to Gen. Syrsky ... and others. Tragically, the Peter Principle is likely killing more Ukrainian soldiers than should be happening.

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I was hoping for some good news, but it seems that the general staff of Ukraine is almost as much an enemy of their troops as the Russians these days...

Probably the big brigades will have to demand a larger amount of autonomy if they want to have any hope for successful prosecution of the war.

And the news about the 155th are disheartening. Why should the French train/equip a second brigade if the first is abused like that?

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At least everyone went through basic training. Some replacements are sent to units without any training at all.

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Thanks for the update. I think in the future when we find out who sabotaged Ukraine's defence of the south in early 2022 we'll find out these same people were being "incompetent" through the years that followed after.

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Syrsky is a russian who happened to be in Ukraine when the USSR collapsed, so he stayed. His family is still in Russia. Some of the 'mistakes' described in this article look like sabotage. I just can't believe he could be that dumb. Therefore, in my opinion, his connections to FSB/GRU seem to be the most likely explanation of these f-ups.

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Syrski is the tool of Zelenski and never questions any directive. There is no devious action only discipline for his master.

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1/4 of UA population are Russians and another 1/4 of mixed Russo-Ukranian origin. It's a well-known facts that UA troops from the "Russian" regions of Ukraine fight better than UA troops from Western Ukraine. The latter are smarter though being more prone to desertation, understanding the prospects and senselessness of the war.

RU army is full of generals of Ukranian ethnic origin as well.

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I haven’t heard that «well known» fact before and you would have to substantiate it quite a bit before I believe in it. Of course there are people of mixed origins on both sides. Regarding «the senselessness of the war, well one side started it. The other has to fight. Senseless or not. But if you believe the fighting from Ukraine is senseless (not talking about their generals, but the fact that they are fighting) then I think you should spend your time and comments for other blogs.

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With all my (dis)respect, since you are not a blog holder, let me decide myself where should I post. As per the percentage of "bravery" of certain UA regions, I will give you a hint for research: check out the % of runaway recruits to Europe from UA corresponding regions. Statistics is available and very funny.

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So far you have only given (dis)respect. And claims. No substance. Of course I am not regulating where you post. I only comment on the wisdom of it.

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7dEdited

These are just your fantasies.

Remember, orc, your ruzzia has been in decline for dozens of years now. This war won't stop this decline and just make Ukrainians hate you for a long time for starting it.

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Valery Markus,former staff seargant of 47.mechanized, started posting again, and he posted a lot of information about how 47.Mechanized was formed and how its creation was sabotaged from the start.. would be interesting to hear Tom's take on it.

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Where is he posting?

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youtube, but its in Ukrainian only.

https://www.youtube.com/@MarkusUA

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The explanation I heard about the 155th was that it's "on paper" strength was bolstered with untrained conscripts snatched off the street. And these people just went home at the first opportunity.

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Some of the commenters in your FB, in Substack and also in the EEMC are very much for Ukrainian prestige and belittles NATO troops and the NATO countries army training because they are not combat experienced as compared to surviving/excellent combat experienced and quality ZSU personnel and units. Then the Genstab-U decided to piecemeal to pieces the French trained 155th Mech Bde after it arrived in Ukraine, still a WTF moment, the easiest way to destroy the combat potential/morale and esprit decorps of a Bde(trained as a whole and have practiced its tactical employment together) is separate it into pieces.

Thanks again, any fact/evidence based information is always welcome Tom.

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Hi Tom, and thank you in advance for yours updates, a fresh sarcastic dosis in a tragedy that has already lasted a long time. What do you know about the cross of orcs troops betwen Dvorichna and Zapdne, noth of Kupiansk? It seems like the orcs have been there for at least 2 weeks and at least for now nobody in Glavcom doesn't seem to be doing anything beyond having eliminated the first crossing north of Dvorichna. But a few miles south the orcs are staying there, and when the orcs get a breakthrough...

Sources

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1lscRK6ehG0l2V-XvJ16nsyblMsQ&ll=49.87961882340537%2C37.714224879028905&z=13

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194

The first source was my main source of updates since 2022 until I discovered Sacastosaurus through a recommendation in a post by Mick Ryan, and it seems to be reliable and several days ahead of ISW confirmations.

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This thing with the french brigade is either uber incompetence or plain old sabotage. To squander a properly trained brigade by splitting it apart is simply ridiculous.

And a thing you've mentioned about the lack of cooperation - yesterday/today there was a join operation between HUR, SBU, SSO and ZSU where they trapped a train with 40 cars of fuel by destroying the rails, blew up front and back of the train to prevent backward retreat if the wagons and finished it off. Hopefully, not a one off cooperation

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It is a question why a greater priority is not given to fortification work. Foreign aid in the form of construction equipment is cheaper than modern ground weapons, let alone the air force.

The preference for artillery ammunition over aviation has been written many times on this blog. Due to lower cost and complexity.

1. Fortification work that can be carried out by civilian personnel

2. Artillery

3. Aviation

Fortifications are too cheap and easy to neglect compared to ground army and air force superstructures.

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Zelensky said that 43.000 of his troops are dead by now and another 370.000 wounded (half of which return to combat after taking medical care).

But according to famous Ukrainian propagandist Yury Butusov, info from Ukrainian GUR suggests Ukraine suffered 70.000 dead and 35.000 missing (dead).

According to project UA losses, over 61.000 Ukrainians are confirmed killed by now, and this number represents only a part of the story...

So most likely we`re talking about +- 100k Ukrainians KIA; adding to this the heavily wounded, and based on Zelensky`s claim about 4 of them for 1 KIA, we have 500.000 irretrievable losses for Ukraine, or 800.000 with light wounds in total.

No wonder everyone in Ukraine is complaining about the lack of manpower...

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"famous Ukrainian propagandist Yury Butusov" - yeah a journalist that criticises his own government is a propagandist. Can you disprove any of his claims, by the way?

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7dEdited

I am curious, Tom, are you trying to portray Russian army as some third world country force with that picture of "typical Russian civilian truck'' which might have been used by ex LDPR troops in the rear?

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Siyrsky screwing the new brigade ?

I`m not surprised he is Russian`s agent after all.

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7dEdited

Just been listening to the BBC's The Briefing Room - Ukraine - What's Next. They make an interesting comment on how the oil price is critical to Russia's war effort. With Trump's 'Drill baby drill' policy, increased oil supply will mean the oil price will come under pressure.

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The US is already producing all the oil it can. Drilling for oil is expensive and risky. If the price goes down too much your field can lose money. Drilling for oil in more remote locations is more expensive and often doesn’t make sense financially. Trump can’t wave his magic wand and change that.

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And drilling takes time. But the Saudies can increase their production relatively fast and easy.

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Hi Tom, did you change your mind wrt the Ukrainian Kurks invasion? I change mine since a while already.

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