Hello everybody! A slightly more comprehensive ‘volley’ for today… AIR/MISSILE WARFARE Yesterday, there was another strike on the Kerch Bridge, too. AFAIK, road traffic was stopped for a few hours, and RUMINT has it that the railway section was hit again. Indeed, some say that an entire section collapsed. So far, haven’t seen any kind of photos or videos, but this is making lots of sense: it means that, after knocking out – or at least damaging - the bridges to Crimea and from Crimea to the mainland Ukraine, the ZSU (and/or the PSU) are ‘down’ to interdicting the flow of Russian supplies by sea, i.e. via the port of Berdyansk.
Aug 14, 2023·edited Aug 14, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Talking of the time running, by the way. Tom, what's your estimate of the current Russian airframes lifetime leftover? Considering combat and training sorties of these 18 months, not the best wartime mainteinance, combat losses that are leaning towards the newer airframes and continued export sales...
Sadly, no idea about how much time is left for the mass of the VKS, but I'm already waiting especially for Su-25s and MiG-31s to either continue crashing, or start crashing in ever bigger numbers.
I think it is worth mentioning that SSO has captured major Tomov(commander of 1822 brigade) near Kozachi Laheri. There was a video, where this "brave man", has beaten ukrainian POW.
And now, he "sings like a bird" about russians position on a left bank.
Thanks! Very comprehensive. Any thoughts on the returning Ukrainian marines lately trained in the West? Over time, they could make the eastern bank of the Dnipro an uncomfortable place to be.
Oh dear.... few days ago, got myself involved into an 'online clash' with few British veterans, because I've 'dared' expressing my hope this group of British-trained ZSU troops might fare better than certain earlier one.... cost me at least an hour of my life, and significantly contributed to making a mistake with that photo from the Kerch Bridge.
Thus, sorry, not in a mod for that. Lets say that 'time will tell'....
The 1000 Ukrainian marines who underwent a 6-month commando program in Britain? I don't see why we should expect them to underperform people with three weeks of remedial infantry training...
Thank you, Tom for update. It does looks promising, despite it is fiercely fighting and a lot of sons of Ukraine have to pay a high price. God bless ZSU and Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
As for Kozachi Laheri (Cossacks' camps) - presence there, even without established bridgehead allows Ukrainian forces to harass ruzzian logistics on the road running parallel to Dnipro. There were confirmed attack resulting in capture of battalion level officer (that one came with video) in that area.
Thank you Tom for this excellent short update. It's always nice to read about some success by the ZSU, even if it is only a minor tactical one.
I also appreciate you sarcastically quoting Resnikov about the density of minefields. I genuinely laughed out loud while reading it xD It appears that the VSRF managed to lay between 100M - 250M mines just in front of Zavitne Bazhannia. An astonishing achievement. How did they manage to lay multiple times more mines that were laid in the entirety of WW2 is fascinating. I am not even sure if that many mines have been laid in all of human history combined. I have to really give credit to the VSRF. Also, presumably they planted almost exclusively AP mines. Otherwise, the CIA should really start investigating how all these NASA engineers and scientists from the Apollo missions are working for the Russian MoD, teaching the VSRF how to lay 5 60cm diameter TM-62 mines per 100 x 100 cm square. Has anyone actually checked if the VSRF are not drilling all the way down to the Earth's core and stacking the mines all the way down there? This would be extremely dangerous as we all know there are nazis living there, planning an invasion of the planet's surface.
BTW, such a dense minefield would also be the worst laid minefield ever in history. 1 explosion would trigger the entire minefield through sympathetic detonations. I really don't understand why the ZSU/UA gov stopped at 5/m2. When you're already making shit up, why not go for broke, otherwise known as, go full Russian. 1 BILLION MINES!!!!!!! ... !!!!!!!! ... !!!!!!!
1) Please read the following Wikipedia article to get better understanding of the Russian remote mining capabilities and AP mine size https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PFM-1_mine The article also has estimates for the Ukrainian AP mine stock size (6 millions of PFM-1 mines alone), with Russia storing many times more.
2) There were reports that Russians plant 2 or 3 anti-tank mines on top of one another to make the resulting blast damage the mine-clearing equipment.
3) As far as I remember, there were no reports that the density of the mine fields was uniform at 5 mines / m2. That was the highest density found in some places.
Reznikov said "soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre IN PLACES". It seems that all this long post of yours about hundreds of millions of mines is just... irrelevant.
If you are stating density, then you are doing it over a fairly large area. Otherwise, this is just rotten grub for simple masses. I digress, but if you stack multiple mines on top of each other, then it's essentially one giant mine, not multiple separate ones. Had Resnikov said 0.1/m2, it would still be an absolutely enormous and scary amount of mines. However, I won't stop you from contuining to show what you did at maths classes at school.
Please let me know how exactly I am trolling. Life must be really simple for you. No coherent thought, no doubts, no reading comprehension, no knowledge or understanding and no interest in learning. You disagree with somebody, ergo a troll.
Why don't you let me know where e.g. Tom has fundamentally disagreed with me? That would be a really good start, given that we are both reading his fantastic articles/comments on the subject. Please show everyone where Tom stated how the ZSU are fantastically coordinating large units in combat, swiftly following breakthroughs and have plenty of well educated, experienced staff officers.
Denys, I will always be happy to discuss matters, time permitted. My one condition is doing it in good faith.
I am extremely critical of the ZSU nowadays because I believe that the failure so far in the south, has grave consequences for how both Russia and the West view this war. I no longer believe that it will end in 2025, through military means. I am not confident anymore that Ukraine will be able to achieve a complete victory on the battlefield, partly because of the significant limitations of the ZSU and partly due to insufficient deliveries from NATO.
My knowledge of details, in particular of north african campaign, is limited. Ultimately, el alamein was successful as even judged by casualties the german army lost almost all of its heavy equipment and 40-50% of its troops. That's effectively a complete destruction.
Here is a nice summary, albeit from a british museum so wouldn't treat it as a rigorous historical analysis.
Montgomery planned a 12 day battle. It ended up being ~3 weeks. However, what is important to me is that in the end, they did break through, exploited it and destroyed the german army. They took tens of thousands of prisoners, you do not achieve that by grinding an attritional war. I have not heard any argument that the second battle of el alamein was anything but a hugely important success for the British and a turning point in North Africa.
I am happy to hear your thoughts on this and learn more.
That battle became successful only after multiple initial failures (you can find those and other details in the Wikipedia article), thus it resembles the current operation in southern Ukraine. Please wait to see its results and hold back from calling the Ukrainian commanders "the dumbest, most incompetent of all incompetents" beforehand.
Yes, but we are still talking about 2 weeks between the beginning and the breakthrough on 4th November. The rest was mopping up. Not 6 weeks to almost take Robotyne.
You may recall that I did not use this phrase for myself. Instead, I stated that agreeing with you how it was impossible for the ZSU to succeed in the first place, which I do not agree with, would force such an assessment of the ZSU highest command. Reason is simple, only idiots launch offensives they cannot win. Luigi Cadorna, my "favourite" ww1 commander launched 11 battles of isonzo river. If you want to have a laugh, find out who started the 12th one and what happened.
I waited for 4 weeks before forming my assessment of this offensive. I have seen nothing, that would suggest to me that the ZSU are capable of breaking through the defence in depth and that they are capable of exploiting it, if they do. IIRC they did in fact achieve a solid success early on at the Velyka Novosilka (?) axis, but the command was so slow in flooding the gap, that the VSRF managed to regroup and counter attack successfully (i.e. stopped/blunted the advance, although by suffering grave losses). Not a good omen. Haven't noticed any improvement since.
Your claim " How did they manage to lay multiple times more mines that were laid in the entirety of WW2 is fascinating" is rubbish like the rest of your post .
The Soviet Union alone laid an estimated 222 million mines in World War II.
I read different sources. I am happy to agree with yours to make you feel better. However, I doubt the veracity of that statement least because of the sentence directly afterwards:
"Soviet sources claimed to have cleared 1.5 million square kilometers, removing some 55 million mines and other items of explosive ordnance by 1945", so not even just mines. Given that all of europe where those battles took place are mine free today, it's pretty amazing to suggest that 80%-90% of laid mines were detonated in combat.
Essentially, these numbers are plucked out of the ass. Not even criticising the DoS, how would they know, or anyone for that matter. However, it is also absolutely irrelevant to the idiotic statement by Resnikov.
Your own source states the amazing proliferation of mines by the USSR with 4000/mile2. I will leave primary school maths to you.
You do realise that's irrelevant and I simply cannot be bothered to waste my time on this? I also am happy to accept DoS to make you happy. If that's what you understood from my initial comment about Resnikov, then only God can help you.
Please explain how I support Russian genocide. Also, please explain who exactly would take away my freedom, preferably start with the country, i'll give you 3 guesses, that's how generous I am. The level of retardation is strong here.
There's a certain style which tends to come from the Russian scum* crowd and I encounter these people so frequently I don't have time to make proper enquiries. I apologise if I judged you unfairly.
* why do I call them scum? They are just like the Germans who supported Hitler through the war, even when it was obvious to all decent people that he and his followers were a blight on humanity, as are Putin and his followers. I hope they face a reckoning similar to the one faced by the German murderers.
Eventually, every Russian will have to stand up and face the question: where were you when your country lost its soul and embarked on this crazed orgy of violence? Did you speak out against the worst crimes against humanity seen in Europe since the second world war? Don't make feeble excuses: we didn't know... there was nothing we could do...All those who believed Putin's lies deserve to be cast out of the civilised world and left to take their holidays in Iran and North Korea.
It's dangerous territory if you consider any criticism to be made by vatnik scum. Apologies accepted.
Russia and all its people should be completely cut off from Europe for the next 100 years. No travel, business, nothing. Kaliningrad should be land blocked, let them either starve or force to supply by the sea and air, like West Berlin.
Nobody in Russia will face any reckoning, except those that are turned into fertiliser in Ukraine. Germany is unfortunately a telling example, as there was effectively a complete amnesty for crimes of genocide. The entire civil service and the judiciary after ww2 were full of former nazis. In Russia they won't even teach kids about their crimes, they have not done it in 500 years, they won't now. Wishful thinking. Instead, focus on the complete destruction of the VSRF and sanctions sanctions sanctions.
Germany had the Nuremburg trials and eventually - it took about 20 years - the civilian society acknowledged the crimes. But you are probably right, unfortunately. Russian honestly and self awareness is even worse than Germany's was. The only hope is to completely smash their military.
Nuremberg trials were the victors judging and executing the defeated. They were incredibly important internationally, for the good and the bad, as they were possibly the first such trials where the perpetrators were fairly judged, specifically for crimes against humanity.
However, the actual German investigations and trials were nothing but a joke, a complete piss take. 20 years and something like a dozen of convictions, with a total number of years spent behind bars less than 10 or so? Can't remember exactly. Many even when convicted actually spent very little time in prison. It was a joke, a theatre, it was totally dishonest. A mockery of the judiciary, ethics and morals. However, it is still infinitely better than what the Russians have done, as the German society has genuinely accepted their crimes and, to some degree, have tried to repent.
With regards to the VSRF, smash it, destroy it, annihilate it, turn it into a fertiliser, kill 'em all.
Thanks for this. I sometimes miss Tatarigami's threads. This is an extremely high number so probably includes things like small butterfly mines. Anyway, this is a much more realistic density, 500 lower than Resnikov's 5/m2. Formidable no doubt.
Let's remember that militaries don't apply uniform minefields over uniform terrain voxels, or hexes, or whatever. Even schematically, a minefield in an open field probably has a different density and composition than a minefield along a treeline, or along a road, or just before a fortified network. Maybe minefields in Crimea don't have the utilization of minefields in Luhansk, or minefields in Zaporizhzhia. So there's plenty of numerical uncertainty, and I don't want to impute an average or 'averageable' figure (where I was eyeballing the geometry anyway*).
We can also be sure that Russia has deployed at least tens of millions of mines over the war (albeit we have to be cognizant of mines laid along the border, or in now-recaptured territories, or demined/detonated), so 10K in a high-priority sqkm. doesn't seem outrageous.
*I'm not sure I'm even interpreting the visual correctly, as the "10416" label might apply to the patch of ground it's printed over or it might apply to everything in the image
Nothing to argue about. Interesting points. Talking about mine density is always just to show how many mines are around in general. It's clear the VSRF have laid a lot of mines. I am not sure I believe tens of millions but it's likely in millions. Whatever it is, an enormous number.
However, and that is the point of my sarcastic comment about Resnikov, there is no reason to idiotically overexaggerate, by multiple orders of magnitude, something that is already huge. That's how you end up with Russian claims of the entire UAF being destroyed multiple times. It becomes a joke.
What I'd have loved some insight on, besides the topographic context of this one emplacement: Was this part of a super-critical section of the front, with many such mine-clusters in the vicinity, was it a 'capstone' emplacement with some doctrinal, tactical, or even symbolic significance, or was it just the combat engineers weren't available that day and the local mobiks/commanders decided to screw around with excess stock?
(That account name is, inadvertently I believe, alarming!)
Sorry I lost all context as I cannot find the thread. However, that photo shows exactly the quality of job I would've done at the age of 18 :)
I think it's been known for a long time that AT mines are often stacked and that AP mines are often used to protect the AT mines against sappers. Still, I would like to hear an IED specialist's opinion but placing mines the way it's shown here seems really stupid to me. Thanks for the link!
If ZSU manages to secure Urozhaine to a degree as to feel safe to drive in some HIMARS launchers, Mariupol should be within reach and thus another major logistic hub will be strained.
HIMARS launchers are vulnerable to artillery and Lancets. A relatively safe use requires clearing tens of kilometers around the settlement to make sure they are not observable by enemy drones.
Yes but they don’t need to be stationed there. Hit and run. If ZSU can reduce artillery fire and have some jamming hardware (which should also be safe from artillery fire) to a point that a random hit can can be ruled out, I think it’s doable. It wouldn’t be the first time for ZSU to use HIMRS directly from the front line
ZSU is short on jamming equipment, as far as I know.
It is much easier to arrive unnoticed close to some point over the 200-km long front line and fire from there than to get unnoticed into a mined sack where the enemy expects your MLRS to come to and is actively searching for it.
Thanks
Спасибо, Том.
"on Friday (11 July), Urozhaine was free" - 11 August?
"since around Thursday (10 July)" - the same
How? It's no July any more....?
Gauging by temps here.... seems, I've missed a month or so... :P
Talking of the time running, by the way. Tom, what's your estimate of the current Russian airframes lifetime leftover? Considering combat and training sorties of these 18 months, not the best wartime mainteinance, combat losses that are leaning towards the newer airframes and continued export sales...
Excellent question, actually!
Sadly, no idea about how much time is left for the mass of the VKS, but I'm already waiting especially for Su-25s and MiG-31s to either continue crashing, or start crashing in ever bigger numbers.
I think it is worth mentioning that SSO has captured major Tomov(commander of 1822 brigade) near Kozachi Laheri. There was a video, where this "brave man", has beaten ukrainian POW.
And now, he "sings like a bird" about russians position on a left bank.
1822 battalion of Samara regiment.
He is so frightened by "the cruelty of banderovites" that is eager to buy his security by all means.
Some Russian prisoners do not want to be changed and they stay in Ukraine.
Thank you for keeping me/us up to date - it's important to have a sober alternative to snowflake MSM reporters spouting rubbish.
Thanks! Very comprehensive. Any thoughts on the returning Ukrainian marines lately trained in the West? Over time, they could make the eastern bank of the Dnipro an uncomfortable place to be.
Oh dear.... few days ago, got myself involved into an 'online clash' with few British veterans, because I've 'dared' expressing my hope this group of British-trained ZSU troops might fare better than certain earlier one.... cost me at least an hour of my life, and significantly contributed to making a mistake with that photo from the Kerch Bridge.
Thus, sorry, not in a mod for that. Lets say that 'time will tell'....
The 1000 Ukrainian marines who underwent a 6-month commando program in Britain? I don't see why we should expect them to underperform people with three weeks of remedial infantry training...
A lot of good news! Today Genstab confirmed the liberation of Urozhaine as well as Russian "military correspondents". Thank you for the information.
Thanks for this timing update. Fond memories of all five “unit quality classes”. Decades without reading about that... but still valuable.
Thank you, Tom for update. It does looks promising, despite it is fiercely fighting and a lot of sons of Ukraine have to pay a high price. God bless ZSU and Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Yep, after capturing major Tomov, something big blew up in Oleshki. Don’t think it was a coincidence
Of course not, losing competent leadership forces you to smoke a lot and that is the true force holding the Russians back.
Thank you Tom.
As for Kozachi Laheri (Cossacks' camps) - presence there, even without established bridgehead allows Ukrainian forces to harass ruzzian logistics on the road running parallel to Dnipro. There were confirmed attack resulting in capture of battalion level officer (that one came with video) in that area.
Step by step doing their job without paying attention to "this contra offencive is too slow" complaints. 👍
Thank you Tom for this excellent short update. It's always nice to read about some success by the ZSU, even if it is only a minor tactical one.
I also appreciate you sarcastically quoting Resnikov about the density of minefields. I genuinely laughed out loud while reading it xD It appears that the VSRF managed to lay between 100M - 250M mines just in front of Zavitne Bazhannia. An astonishing achievement. How did they manage to lay multiple times more mines that were laid in the entirety of WW2 is fascinating. I am not even sure if that many mines have been laid in all of human history combined. I have to really give credit to the VSRF. Also, presumably they planted almost exclusively AP mines. Otherwise, the CIA should really start investigating how all these NASA engineers and scientists from the Apollo missions are working for the Russian MoD, teaching the VSRF how to lay 5 60cm diameter TM-62 mines per 100 x 100 cm square. Has anyone actually checked if the VSRF are not drilling all the way down to the Earth's core and stacking the mines all the way down there? This would be extremely dangerous as we all know there are nazis living there, planning an invasion of the planet's surface.
BTW, such a dense minefield would also be the worst laid minefield ever in history. 1 explosion would trigger the entire minefield through sympathetic detonations. I really don't understand why the ZSU/UA gov stopped at 5/m2. When you're already making shit up, why not go for broke, otherwise known as, go full Russian. 1 BILLION MINES!!!!!!! ... !!!!!!!! ... !!!!!!!
1) Please read the following Wikipedia article to get better understanding of the Russian remote mining capabilities and AP mine size https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PFM-1_mine The article also has estimates for the Ukrainian AP mine stock size (6 millions of PFM-1 mines alone), with Russia storing many times more.
2) There were reports that Russians plant 2 or 3 anti-tank mines on top of one another to make the resulting blast damage the mine-clearing equipment.
3) As far as I remember, there were no reports that the density of the mine fields was uniform at 5 mines / m2. That was the highest density found in some places.
I honestly cannot be bothered any more. You are so numerically challenged that I am afraid it's contagious.
Reznikov said "soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre IN PLACES". It seems that all this long post of yours about hundreds of millions of mines is just... irrelevant.
If you are stating density, then you are doing it over a fairly large area. Otherwise, this is just rotten grub for simple masses. I digress, but if you stack multiple mines on top of each other, then it's essentially one giant mine, not multiple separate ones. Had Resnikov said 0.1/m2, it would still be an absolutely enormous and scary amount of mines. However, I won't stop you from contuining to show what you did at maths classes at school.
If anyone hasn’t realized yet, “Test Subject” is a troll.
Please let me know how exactly I am trolling. Life must be really simple for you. No coherent thought, no doubts, no reading comprehension, no knowledge or understanding and no interest in learning. You disagree with somebody, ergo a troll.
Why don't you let me know where e.g. Tom has fundamentally disagreed with me? That would be a really good start, given that we are both reading his fantastic articles/comments on the subject. Please show everyone where Tom stated how the ZSU are fantastically coordinating large units in combat, swiftly following breakthroughs and have plenty of well educated, experienced staff officers.
"Please let me know how exactly I am trolling" - see above comment LOL.
Would you like to continue our discussion from the previous topic, where you stated that "The offensive was well planned, executed and was thoroughly successful" for El Alamein https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-11-august-2023-medals/comment/22307493 while Wikipedia deems the planned operation Lightfoot for miserably failed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_El_Alamein#Phase_one:_the_break-in and the planned nightly breakthrough achieved its first results only after10 days of extremely heavy shelling and bombing?
Denys, I will always be happy to discuss matters, time permitted. My one condition is doing it in good faith.
I am extremely critical of the ZSU nowadays because I believe that the failure so far in the south, has grave consequences for how both Russia and the West view this war. I no longer believe that it will end in 2025, through military means. I am not confident anymore that Ukraine will be able to achieve a complete victory on the battlefield, partly because of the significant limitations of the ZSU and partly due to insufficient deliveries from NATO.
My knowledge of details, in particular of north african campaign, is limited. Ultimately, el alamein was successful as even judged by casualties the german army lost almost all of its heavy equipment and 40-50% of its troops. That's effectively a complete destruction.
Here is a nice summary, albeit from a british museum so wouldn't treat it as a rigorous historical analysis.
https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/battle-alamein#:~:text=Fought%20near%20the%20western%20frontier,by%20the%20British%20Eighth%20Army.
Operation lightfoot was followed seamlessly by supercharge, which led to the breakthrough.
According to https://codenames.info/operation/lightfoot/
Montgomery planned a 12 day battle. It ended up being ~3 weeks. However, what is important to me is that in the end, they did break through, exploited it and destroyed the german army. They took tens of thousands of prisoners, you do not achieve that by grinding an attritional war. I have not heard any argument that the second battle of el alamein was anything but a hugely important success for the British and a turning point in North Africa.
I am happy to hear your thoughts on this and learn more.
That battle became successful only after multiple initial failures (you can find those and other details in the Wikipedia article), thus it resembles the current operation in southern Ukraine. Please wait to see its results and hold back from calling the Ukrainian commanders "the dumbest, most incompetent of all incompetents" beforehand.
Yes, but we are still talking about 2 weeks between the beginning and the breakthrough on 4th November. The rest was mopping up. Not 6 weeks to almost take Robotyne.
You may recall that I did not use this phrase for myself. Instead, I stated that agreeing with you how it was impossible for the ZSU to succeed in the first place, which I do not agree with, would force such an assessment of the ZSU highest command. Reason is simple, only idiots launch offensives they cannot win. Luigi Cadorna, my "favourite" ww1 commander launched 11 battles of isonzo river. If you want to have a laugh, find out who started the 12th one and what happened.
I waited for 4 weeks before forming my assessment of this offensive. I have seen nothing, that would suggest to me that the ZSU are capable of breaking through the defence in depth and that they are capable of exploiting it, if they do. IIRC they did in fact achieve a solid success early on at the Velyka Novosilka (?) axis, but the command was so slow in flooding the gap, that the VSRF managed to regroup and counter attack successfully (i.e. stopped/blunted the advance, although by suffering grave losses). Not a good omen. Haven't noticed any improvement since.
Your claim " How did they manage to lay multiple times more mines that were laid in the entirety of WW2 is fascinating" is rubbish like the rest of your post .
The Soviet Union alone laid an estimated 222 million mines in World War II.
https://1997-2001.state.gov/global/arms/rpt_9401_demine_ch1.html
I read different sources. I am happy to agree with yours to make you feel better. However, I doubt the veracity of that statement least because of the sentence directly afterwards:
"Soviet sources claimed to have cleared 1.5 million square kilometers, removing some 55 million mines and other items of explosive ordnance by 1945", so not even just mines. Given that all of europe where those battles took place are mine free today, it's pretty amazing to suggest that 80%-90% of laid mines were detonated in combat.
Essentially, these numbers are plucked out of the ass. Not even criticising the DoS, how would they know, or anyone for that matter. However, it is also absolutely irrelevant to the idiotic statement by Resnikov.
Your own source states the amazing proliferation of mines by the USSR with 4000/mile2. I will leave primary school maths to you.
LOL!
You are rude enough to try to pick holes in my source when you have completely failed to offer a source for even one of your absurd claims.
I will leave you to your invented numbers and your ass fascination.
You do realise that's irrelevant and I simply cannot be bothered to waste my time on this? I also am happy to accept DoS to make you happy. If that's what you understood from my initial comment about Resnikov, then only God can help you.
Fascinating.
First you wrote " " How did they manage to lay multiple times more mines that were laid in the entirety of WW2 is fascinating"
Then you decided to destroy your own claim with "Essentially, these numbers are plucked out of the ass."
Clearly you have no idea of how many " mines were laid in the entirety of WW2"
I am happy to agree with you. It's also irrelevant but it makes you happy so enjoy.
Just a little Schadenfreude when I am able to expose fake news.
The point is that there aren't 100M mines as Resnikov alluded to. Are you arguing this is true?
Enjoy your freedom while it lasts. Your support of Russian genocide will eventually catch up with you.
Please explain how I support Russian genocide. Also, please explain who exactly would take away my freedom, preferably start with the country, i'll give you 3 guesses, that's how generous I am. The level of retardation is strong here.
There's a certain style which tends to come from the Russian scum* crowd and I encounter these people so frequently I don't have time to make proper enquiries. I apologise if I judged you unfairly.
* why do I call them scum? They are just like the Germans who supported Hitler through the war, even when it was obvious to all decent people that he and his followers were a blight on humanity, as are Putin and his followers. I hope they face a reckoning similar to the one faced by the German murderers.
Eventually, every Russian will have to stand up and face the question: where were you when your country lost its soul and embarked on this crazed orgy of violence? Did you speak out against the worst crimes against humanity seen in Europe since the second world war? Don't make feeble excuses: we didn't know... there was nothing we could do...All those who believed Putin's lies deserve to be cast out of the civilised world and left to take their holidays in Iran and North Korea.
It's dangerous territory if you consider any criticism to be made by vatnik scum. Apologies accepted.
Russia and all its people should be completely cut off from Europe for the next 100 years. No travel, business, nothing. Kaliningrad should be land blocked, let them either starve or force to supply by the sea and air, like West Berlin.
Nobody in Russia will face any reckoning, except those that are turned into fertiliser in Ukraine. Germany is unfortunately a telling example, as there was effectively a complete amnesty for crimes of genocide. The entire civil service and the judiciary after ww2 were full of former nazis. In Russia they won't even teach kids about their crimes, they have not done it in 500 years, they won't now. Wishful thinking. Instead, focus on the complete destruction of the VSRF and sanctions sanctions sanctions.
Germany had the Nuremburg trials and eventually - it took about 20 years - the civilian society acknowledged the crimes. But you are probably right, unfortunately. Russian honestly and self awareness is even worse than Germany's was. The only hope is to completely smash their military.
Nuremberg trials were the victors judging and executing the defeated. They were incredibly important internationally, for the good and the bad, as they were possibly the first such trials where the perpetrators were fairly judged, specifically for crimes against humanity.
However, the actual German investigations and trials were nothing but a joke, a complete piss take. 20 years and something like a dozen of convictions, with a total number of years spent behind bars less than 10 or so? Can't remember exactly. Many even when convicted actually spent very little time in prison. It was a joke, a theatre, it was totally dishonest. A mockery of the judiciary, ethics and morals. However, it is still infinitely better than what the Russians have done, as the German society has genuinely accepted their crimes and, to some degree, have tried to repent.
With regards to the VSRF, smash it, destroy it, annihilate it, turn it into a fertiliser, kill 'em all.
"how to lay 5 60cm diameter TM-62 mines per 100 x 100 cm square."
It surely helps, that the TM-62 has only 32 cm diameter, not 60. So technically you can lay 9 (3x3) in a 100x100 cm square.
You are correct, my error. Thank you for correcting me. I misread, 60cm was the case for the mines, not the mine itself.
Tatari's brief thread on Russian mine tactics suggests a density of say 10K per square kilometer of minefield may be a common density.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1690076614342680576
Thanks for this. I sometimes miss Tatarigami's threads. This is an extremely high number so probably includes things like small butterfly mines. Anyway, this is a much more realistic density, 500 lower than Resnikov's 5/m2. Formidable no doubt.
Let's remember that militaries don't apply uniform minefields over uniform terrain voxels, or hexes, or whatever. Even schematically, a minefield in an open field probably has a different density and composition than a minefield along a treeline, or along a road, or just before a fortified network. Maybe minefields in Crimea don't have the utilization of minefields in Luhansk, or minefields in Zaporizhzhia. So there's plenty of numerical uncertainty, and I don't want to impute an average or 'averageable' figure (where I was eyeballing the geometry anyway*).
We can also be sure that Russia has deployed at least tens of millions of mines over the war (albeit we have to be cognizant of mines laid along the border, or in now-recaptured territories, or demined/detonated), so 10K in a high-priority sqkm. doesn't seem outrageous.
*I'm not sure I'm even interpreting the visual correctly, as the "10416" label might apply to the patch of ground it's printed over or it might apply to everything in the image
Nothing to argue about. Interesting points. Talking about mine density is always just to show how many mines are around in general. It's clear the VSRF have laid a lot of mines. I am not sure I believe tens of millions but it's likely in millions. Whatever it is, an enormous number.
However, and that is the point of my sarcastic comment about Resnikov, there is no reason to idiotically overexaggerate, by multiple orders of magnitude, something that is already huge. That's how you end up with Russian claims of the entire UAF being destroyed multiple times. It becomes a joke.
btw
https://t.me/TrenerDiaries/3991
What I'd have loved some insight on, besides the topographic context of this one emplacement: Was this part of a super-critical section of the front, with many such mine-clusters in the vicinity, was it a 'capstone' emplacement with some doctrinal, tactical, or even symbolic significance, or was it just the combat engineers weren't available that day and the local mobiks/commanders decided to screw around with excess stock?
(That account name is, inadvertently I believe, alarming!)
Sorry I lost all context as I cannot find the thread. However, that photo shows exactly the quality of job I would've done at the age of 18 :)
I think it's been known for a long time that AT mines are often stacked and that AP mines are often used to protect the AT mines against sappers. Still, I would like to hear an IED specialist's opinion but placing mines the way it's shown here seems really stupid to me. Thanks for the link!
Thank you very much for all your work in researching and writing these articles. I much prefer realism and caution in war reporting.
If ZSU manages to secure Urozhaine to a degree as to feel safe to drive in some HIMARS launchers, Mariupol should be within reach and thus another major logistic hub will be strained.
HIMARS launchers are vulnerable to artillery and Lancets. A relatively safe use requires clearing tens of kilometers around the settlement to make sure they are not observable by enemy drones.
For deploying either M142 or M270 there, they'll need a 'bigger perimeter'. See: not just Urozhayne, but some 5-10km around it, too.
Yes but they don’t need to be stationed there. Hit and run. If ZSU can reduce artillery fire and have some jamming hardware (which should also be safe from artillery fire) to a point that a random hit can can be ruled out, I think it’s doable. It wouldn’t be the first time for ZSU to use HIMRS directly from the front line
ZSU is short on jamming equipment, as far as I know.
It is much easier to arrive unnoticed close to some point over the 200-km long front line and fire from there than to get unnoticed into a mined sack where the enemy expects your MLRS to come to and is actively searching for it.