The United Nations is absolutely useless organisation. Their statements don't have any power for some countries like Russia or Iran, even Belarus (without nuclear weapons) doesn't pay attention. The UN is like an odd friend at a wedding, he visits a wedding, but no one takes him seriously.
....while 'Arthur Dent' and 'Quinton Miller' and whatever other 'sound' names are all 'real'....
Sorry, but my readers are not as stupid as you (or as you think they are): get real, and stop trolling with BS, or you'll be out of here before you can type 'cookie'.
1.) International organisations like the UN are as good as we all - Ukrainians, Austrians, Americans, Italians, Poles.... - make it. If your and mine representatives there are screwing up, don't blame the 'UN', but blame your and my representatives.
Hint: these representatives are usually exactly the same characters that are ruling our countries, too...
2.) It took 75+ years of 'disassembling' the UN - almost exclusively by Western powers - to convert it into the useless organisation it is nowadays.
That began already back in 1947, when the UN partitioned Palestine: that decision was taken in complete ignorance of what the population of the territory in question wanted, but was the first and only UN decision in regards of that territory (nowadays largely within 'borders' of Israel), that was widely accepted, and applied. Ever since, almost every single of UN resolutions and decisions regarding Palestine and Israel were ignored. Because the West decided to ignore them.
Correspondingly, the UN was converted into an anti-pluralist tool of 'big games' already two years after established.
....while being created to maintain the status quo established in 1945, yet nobody (especially nobody in the West) has ever since given a donkey's dick to adapt it to subsequent developments. Foremost not to provide it with authorisations it needs to become effective.
What a surprise if nowadays the UN is easy to misuse by whoever only can...
I can. I can blame the 'UN' - i.e. countries making the UN - for creating countries in places where nobody wanted countries in question, while obviously ignoring the local population (indeed, even ignoring the ethnic cleansing of the local population, and then creating the UNHCR instead, to 'take care' about resulting refugees, but never to solve their situation).
That results in never-ending wars, and is corrupting the sheer idea of the 'UN'.
You're comparing the UN to your perfect idea of what it should be. If you look back to its founding and who the veto-wielding security council members were back then - it was just the surviving big military powers after WW2. I don't know what kind of ideals was Mao's China supposed to uphold.
It's actually amazing how the UN managed to survive and even project this PR image of a relevant organization at all. It's essentially just a big table where peaceful countries, bloodthirsty dictatorships and... whatever the US was supposed to be before it retreated into semi-isolation lately sit together and try to figure out how to not kill each other. It should be surprising when it works, not when it doesn't.
My 'problem' with the UN, if you like, is the US behavior - and the US history. Just like all the US 'contracts' and 'treaties' with the indigenous population of Northern America (and that's just the start) it's a worthless contract: a treaty aiming to 'freeze' the situation as it was at one point in time (following another of 'US successes'), and then violated at every opportunity - foremost by the US. Followed by most of the West, too.
...and after 75+ years of US (and Western) violations of the UN decisions... hand on heart: who has the right to complain about diverse dictators violating UN decisions, too?
The West has provided them with plentiful of 'precedents'.
It is interesting that the Ukrainians have succeeded in the supposedly strongest place. Unusual terrain seams seem to be key in frontal attacks. Very interestin for future...
- Re: infantry fares better than armor: I think this is the straight result of having neither effective air cover nor enough ECM/anti-UAV cabapility. Small infantry units are less likely being the direct target of artillery, mainly in the "bocage country". Armor must be at least somewhat concentrated and esier to target. Also, just as you wrote, an amor unit remains the target even after their first hits. An infantry unit can disperse and regroup elsewhere. And third, I don't think any side has a clue how to use "classic armor tactics" when almost defensless from above and the battlefield can be mined in hours. (Which goes back to your permanent rant that the UAF needs artillery, artillery and maybe a little more artillery.)
- Re: directions. "That's where we're starting the war." - said Henry Fonda's character in The Longest Day, when realized they were not on the right beach. I think the UAF is in a similar situation now. Both the Tokmak-Melitopol and the Volnovakha-Mariupol direction offered better rewards than the attack from Velika Novosilka - but if they have the momentum there and stalling elswhere, then that's where they are pushing. The big question is how much reserve the VSRF has in this direction, and if the advance successful, are they willing to weaken the other fronts, just to stop it? The good news is that - if the reports are correct - up till now only a fraction of the newly established and equipped UAF units are deployed, so hopefully they have reserves to exploit any opportunity.
Thanks Tom! Re Kupiansk/Svatove - interestingly Konstantin Mashovets, currently a Ukrainian war pundit, claims that Gerasimov is preparing an offensive towards Kupiansk and over Oskil river. According to him Gerasimov has prepared 40-50k troops and one of the goals will be to deflect Ukrainian reserves from Zaporizhiya. Again according to him, Gerasimov has used some of his reserves from Bakhmut for his “new army”, and the current assaults by ZSU in that area are surprising him quite negatively.
And one question - what about Krasna Polana? In your previous update you mentioned that ZSU has reached it (RUMINT)
Re. Kupyansk-Svatove.... haven't got - nor found - any kind of 'updates' from that area for at least a week, so can't say.
(It's like Belgorod area: 'nothing going on' because there are no reports. Shouldn't mean nothing is going on....)
Re. Krasna Polyana: that turned out to have been similar to what was ZSU doing during the Kherson Offensive, the last year. A 'raid' into the Russian rear, to check what's up, destroy HQs, air defences, and supply depots. Followed by a quick withdrawal, because the unit in question couldn't hold the position. As it turned out, it drove straight into the area where the 127th was deploying for its counterattack.
Now, certain of 'experts' are going to tell me I was wrong, but that's simply the way manoeuvre warfare is conducted. Anybody thinking some unit 'must' still be in one place because it has reached it, '15 minutes or 15 days ago' - is simply clueless.
BTW, it wasn't the only such raid: there were similar raids in the Orikhiv and Vuhledar area. Indeed, it is perfectly possible that many of these have resulted in some of Russian 'reactions' we've seen over the last few days, but were (mis)explained for as of yet unknown reasons.
That's the core problem with assessing an ongoing war: too many things are unknown. Ultimately, we're going to know 'exact truth' only once all the details of operations in question are published - in 5 months, 5 or 50 years....if ever.
It just blows my mind. They inflict ecocide, pure disaster, AND they don’t even let the rescuers save those who managed to survive this terror. I don’t think I’ll ever fathom the unimaginable levels of cruelty, inhumanity and pure barbarism that ruzzians inflict on Ukrainians
Sadly, my growing impression is that this is a sort of 'typical Western payback'.
Mind that there's a growing amount of evidence indicating Ukraine is responsible for blowing-up the Nord Stream 2. That cost lots of powerful Western oligarchs lots of money (or at least 'profits they expected to earn in the future').
....and, as usually, our glorious politicians are also scared shitless of possible public reactions once this becomes 'really known' (i.e. penetrates the wider public).
....and, therefore, now 'everybody (in the West) is advised' to keep zip-lip about an obvious Russian war crime...
The new "evidence" came from the Discord leaks weeks after the initial information that contained documents about the US gathering intelligence on its allies and the then-planned counteroffensive. The points to note:
* The information that the US intelligence was warning that Ukraine had been planning the Nord Stream blasts did not appear in the original leak.
* They state that the operation was planned by Zaluzhny which makes no sense. Zaluzhny is an army general who commands tanks, not spies. Any spy operations should be managed by GUR chief Budanov.
Seymour Hersh reported back in February that the US was behind the Nordstrom 2 explosion. See https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream. His investigation seemed compelling but I’m in no position to judge whether it is correct. Since the report the US has been releasing information pointing the finger elsewhere.
Thanks for the report Tom! So, the UAF broke the VSRF in the boundary of two major formations that lies on a river, with infantry. Difficult to target by bombers and easily dispersing and reagruping. Ukranian infantry had shown that is one of the best of the world by now. What to expect now? A classical breakthrough will be exploited by armored formations, but as soon as the ZSU send armor in, VKS could interdict of far better than interdict light infantry.
What about Kherson? In a week or so from now, the soil will have dried enough and the river will be easy to cross than before the dam was blown. The prepared VSRF positions and minfields had been washed away and lots of defenders in first line drowned ir had to reposition to second lines of defense. Is to expect a full armored thust here? ZSU have not commited armored reserves and here with desorganizad defenses it will be maybe better than we are watching now. All the attention going to "western equipped" units but maybe veteran armored formations to avance as soon as the flanking infantry in the boundary of the 35th and the 58th isolates and degrades the VSRF forces just north of Crimea.
It seems to still be an infantry war, dominated by artillery with drones.
As expected, better trained and led infantry, more drones with better operators - spotting for more accurate artillery which is fed by a better logistics system enable the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian mass.
I note you mentioned 60 casualties, 130+ fleeing but only 3 PoWs from one engagement, and Russians fleeing in another. Do you have any feel for the numbers of prisoners vs casualties among the RF forces ? The number of prisoners should be a good indicator of Russian morale.
I've heard of 'dozens' of POWs, but don't recall where. Must've been further south - especially along 'that road' west of the Mokri Yaly River: Ukrainians infiltrated the area and ambushed scores of scattered Russian vehicles, and several columns, as these were 'streaming' south.... that was 'really a massacre'.
That said, AFAIK, the rate of VSRF casualties was 'at least similar' in the case of Storozheve and Blahodatne.
Wow this seems to be mostly made up. There was no "breakthrough" into the Russian rear south of Velyka Novosilka. PSU has not even reached the first fortified line there. And there has been no fighting at all in Staromlynivka, not even close. As for Vuhledar... no fighting anywhere remotely near Blahodatne or Volnovakha. Not sure where you are getting this because not a single mildly reputable source is claiming any of this.
DeepState is far from realtime, they never break opsec and they update maps at least a couple a days after either side entrenched themselves in a new position. During offensive they add changes only after officials would make a statement.
Deepstate are Ukrainians. They will never post or show something GenShtab of Ukraine will not allow. So now they are in OPSEC mode - posting only official UA data. But as you like this version (quite old already, with lag of three-four days at least) of reality - it's ok (for you, of course).
https://t.me/DeepStateUA - this is their official telegram channel. For unknown reason it's in Ukrainian. It's already almost official Ukraine source, so it has the same info as all other UA press. And I told you why already
Yes, "OPSEC", as if the Russians don't know exactly where the Ukrainians are. At this point the "OPSEC" claims are nonsense, and any good news for the Ukrainians is published immediately through the General staff.
a lot of retired US army colonels/generals were puffing their face cheeks with "combined arms ops" rethorics, always "forgetting" to mention how their (US/NATO) combined ops were successful because of total air power superiority combined with long range missile bombings.
Considering the US Army never managed to 'adapt' the Autfragstaktik, but slogged every war since 1942 in form of a plump battle of attrition.... no surprise.
I do hope I'm not 'leaning too far out of the window' when concluding: this operation in the Velyka Novosilka-area wasn't planed with help of US advisors...
Short translation - tales about damage to 47th Brigade are highly exaggerated.
Good point. My translation is shorter :-)
Thanks a lot
The United Nations is absolutely useless organisation. Their statements don't have any power for some countries like Russia or Iran, even Belarus (without nuclear weapons) doesn't pay attention. The UN is like an odd friend at a wedding, he visits a wedding, but no one takes him seriously.
....while 'Arthur Dent' and 'Quinton Miller' and whatever other 'sound' names are all 'real'....
Sorry, but my readers are not as stupid as you (or as you think they are): get real, and stop trolling with BS, or you'll be out of here before you can type 'cookie'.
If you act/behave like a troll, I react like treating a troll.
That's what 30 years of internet is doing to one.
Slowly, please. Keep in mind at least two things.
1.) International organisations like the UN are as good as we all - Ukrainians, Austrians, Americans, Italians, Poles.... - make it. If your and mine representatives there are screwing up, don't blame the 'UN', but blame your and my representatives.
Hint: these representatives are usually exactly the same characters that are ruling our countries, too...
2.) It took 75+ years of 'disassembling' the UN - almost exclusively by Western powers - to convert it into the useless organisation it is nowadays.
That began already back in 1947, when the UN partitioned Palestine: that decision was taken in complete ignorance of what the population of the territory in question wanted, but was the first and only UN decision in regards of that territory (nowadays largely within 'borders' of Israel), that was widely accepted, and applied. Ever since, almost every single of UN resolutions and decisions regarding Palestine and Israel were ignored. Because the West decided to ignore them.
Correspondingly, the UN was converted into an anti-pluralist tool of 'big games' already two years after established.
....while being created to maintain the status quo established in 1945, yet nobody (especially nobody in the West) has ever since given a donkey's dick to adapt it to subsequent developments. Foremost not to provide it with authorisations it needs to become effective.
What a surprise if nowadays the UN is easy to misuse by whoever only can...
Thanks for explaining why is the UN failing - in such a skilled manner.
I can. I can blame the 'UN' - i.e. countries making the UN - for creating countries in places where nobody wanted countries in question, while obviously ignoring the local population (indeed, even ignoring the ethnic cleansing of the local population, and then creating the UNHCR instead, to 'take care' about resulting refugees, but never to solve their situation).
That results in never-ending wars, and is corrupting the sheer idea of the 'UN'.
Of course, you're free to continue ignoring this.
You're comparing the UN to your perfect idea of what it should be. If you look back to its founding and who the veto-wielding security council members were back then - it was just the surviving big military powers after WW2. I don't know what kind of ideals was Mao's China supposed to uphold.
It's actually amazing how the UN managed to survive and even project this PR image of a relevant organization at all. It's essentially just a big table where peaceful countries, bloodthirsty dictatorships and... whatever the US was supposed to be before it retreated into semi-isolation lately sit together and try to figure out how to not kill each other. It should be surprising when it works, not when it doesn't.
My 'problem' with the UN, if you like, is the US behavior - and the US history. Just like all the US 'contracts' and 'treaties' with the indigenous population of Northern America (and that's just the start) it's a worthless contract: a treaty aiming to 'freeze' the situation as it was at one point in time (following another of 'US successes'), and then violated at every opportunity - foremost by the US. Followed by most of the West, too.
...and after 75+ years of US (and Western) violations of the UN decisions... hand on heart: who has the right to complain about diverse dictators violating UN decisions, too?
The West has provided them with plentiful of 'precedents'.
It is interesting that the Ukrainians have succeeded in the supposedly strongest place. Unusual terrain seams seem to be key in frontal attacks. Very interestin for future...
Щтро дякую Вам.
Thank you for the update!
- Re: infantry fares better than armor: I think this is the straight result of having neither effective air cover nor enough ECM/anti-UAV cabapility. Small infantry units are less likely being the direct target of artillery, mainly in the "bocage country". Armor must be at least somewhat concentrated and esier to target. Also, just as you wrote, an amor unit remains the target even after their first hits. An infantry unit can disperse and regroup elsewhere. And third, I don't think any side has a clue how to use "classic armor tactics" when almost defensless from above and the battlefield can be mined in hours. (Which goes back to your permanent rant that the UAF needs artillery, artillery and maybe a little more artillery.)
- Re: directions. "That's where we're starting the war." - said Henry Fonda's character in The Longest Day, when realized they were not on the right beach. I think the UAF is in a similar situation now. Both the Tokmak-Melitopol and the Volnovakha-Mariupol direction offered better rewards than the attack from Velika Novosilka - but if they have the momentum there and stalling elswhere, then that's where they are pushing. The big question is how much reserve the VSRF has in this direction, and if the advance successful, are they willing to weaken the other fronts, just to stop it? The good news is that - if the reports are correct - up till now only a fraction of the newly established and equipped UAF units are deployed, so hopefully they have reserves to exploit any opportunity.
Yup. Nothing useful to add nor to comment in this regards.
Thanks Tom! Re Kupiansk/Svatove - interestingly Konstantin Mashovets, currently a Ukrainian war pundit, claims that Gerasimov is preparing an offensive towards Kupiansk and over Oskil river. According to him Gerasimov has prepared 40-50k troops and one of the goals will be to deflect Ukrainian reserves from Zaporizhiya. Again according to him, Gerasimov has used some of his reserves from Bakhmut for his “new army”, and the current assaults by ZSU in that area are surprising him quite negatively.
And one question - what about Krasna Polana? In your previous update you mentioned that ZSU has reached it (RUMINT)
Re. Kupyansk-Svatove.... haven't got - nor found - any kind of 'updates' from that area for at least a week, so can't say.
(It's like Belgorod area: 'nothing going on' because there are no reports. Shouldn't mean nothing is going on....)
Re. Krasna Polyana: that turned out to have been similar to what was ZSU doing during the Kherson Offensive, the last year. A 'raid' into the Russian rear, to check what's up, destroy HQs, air defences, and supply depots. Followed by a quick withdrawal, because the unit in question couldn't hold the position. As it turned out, it drove straight into the area where the 127th was deploying for its counterattack.
Now, certain of 'experts' are going to tell me I was wrong, but that's simply the way manoeuvre warfare is conducted. Anybody thinking some unit 'must' still be in one place because it has reached it, '15 minutes or 15 days ago' - is simply clueless.
BTW, it wasn't the only such raid: there were similar raids in the Orikhiv and Vuhledar area. Indeed, it is perfectly possible that many of these have resulted in some of Russian 'reactions' we've seen over the last few days, but were (mis)explained for as of yet unknown reasons.
That's the core problem with assessing an ongoing war: too many things are unknown. Ultimately, we're going to know 'exact truth' only once all the details of operations in question are published - in 5 months, 5 or 50 years....if ever.
Thanks for the clarification
It just blows my mind. They inflict ecocide, pure disaster, AND they don’t even let the rescuers save those who managed to survive this terror. I don’t think I’ll ever fathom the unimaginable levels of cruelty, inhumanity and pure barbarism that ruzzians inflict on Ukrainians
Sadly, my growing impression is that this is a sort of 'typical Western payback'.
Mind that there's a growing amount of evidence indicating Ukraine is responsible for blowing-up the Nord Stream 2. That cost lots of powerful Western oligarchs lots of money (or at least 'profits they expected to earn in the future').
....and, as usually, our glorious politicians are also scared shitless of possible public reactions once this becomes 'really known' (i.e. penetrates the wider public).
....and, therefore, now 'everybody (in the West) is advised' to keep zip-lip about an obvious Russian war crime...
The new "evidence" came from the Discord leaks weeks after the initial information that contained documents about the US gathering intelligence on its allies and the then-planned counteroffensive. The points to note:
* The information that the US intelligence was warning that Ukraine had been planning the Nord Stream blasts did not appear in the original leak.
* They state that the operation was planned by Zaluzhny which makes no sense. Zaluzhny is an army general who commands tanks, not spies. Any spy operations should be managed by GUR chief Budanov.
Seymour Hersh reported back in February that the US was behind the Nordstrom 2 explosion. See https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream. His investigation seemed compelling but I’m in no position to judge whether it is correct. Since the report the US has been releasing information pointing the finger elsewhere.
That 'investigation' is full of unexplainable 'gaps', holes, and things requiring lots of fantasy to accept.
It's sad to watch (and I hope it's not going to happen to me, too), but Hersh is simply not what he used to be - and that for years already.
That the Russian army from the chief commander to the last mobik can be quite sadistic shouldn’t be a surprise at this stage of the war.
Thanks for the report Tom! So, the UAF broke the VSRF in the boundary of two major formations that lies on a river, with infantry. Difficult to target by bombers and easily dispersing and reagruping. Ukranian infantry had shown that is one of the best of the world by now. What to expect now? A classical breakthrough will be exploited by armored formations, but as soon as the ZSU send armor in, VKS could interdict of far better than interdict light infantry.
What about Kherson? In a week or so from now, the soil will have dried enough and the river will be easy to cross than before the dam was blown. The prepared VSRF positions and minfields had been washed away and lots of defenders in first line drowned ir had to reposition to second lines of defense. Is to expect a full armored thust here? ZSU have not commited armored reserves and here with desorganizad defenses it will be maybe better than we are watching now. All the attention going to "western equipped" units but maybe veteran armored formations to avance as soon as the flanking infantry in the boundary of the 35th and the 58th isolates and degrades the VSRF forces just north of Crimea.
Полностью согласен с Вашим мнением.
Mate, I've got no crystal ball and can't predict the future. Never going to pretend I can. Thus, sorry: no idea.
Dnipro will be as wide as it was before below Kherson + mud.
The water reservoir above Kherson will likely turn into a sea of deep mud.
However, time will show as there is very little historical data covering such events.
Thanks Tom - nice to have some good news!
Will the tank make a comeback ?
Or is it just a good decoy / diversion ?
It seems to still be an infantry war, dominated by artillery with drones.
As expected, better trained and led infantry, more drones with better operators - spotting for more accurate artillery which is fed by a better logistics system enable the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian mass.
I note you mentioned 60 casualties, 130+ fleeing but only 3 PoWs from one engagement, and Russians fleeing in another. Do you have any feel for the numbers of prisoners vs casualties among the RF forces ? The number of prisoners should be a good indicator of Russian morale.
I've heard of 'dozens' of POWs, but don't recall where. Must've been further south - especially along 'that road' west of the Mokri Yaly River: Ukrainians infiltrated the area and ambushed scores of scattered Russian vehicles, and several columns, as these were 'streaming' south.... that was 'really a massacre'.
That said, AFAIK, the rate of VSRF casualties was 'at least similar' in the case of Storozheve and Blahodatne.
Wow this seems to be mostly made up. There was no "breakthrough" into the Russian rear south of Velyka Novosilka. PSU has not even reached the first fortified line there. And there has been no fighting at all in Staromlynivka, not even close. As for Vuhledar... no fighting anywhere remotely near Blahodatne or Volnovakha. Not sure where you are getting this because not a single mildly reputable source is claiming any of this.
Enjoy your RT fantasy world
RT fantasy world is now based on DeepStateUA maps apparently. Funny thing
I hope orcs command alao use DeepStateMaps...
Oh, wait, they are using paper maps from 1950th
DeepState is far from realtime, they never break opsec and they update maps at least a couple a days after either side entrenched themselves in a new position. During offensive they add changes only after officials would make a statement.
Apparently blind supporters of Russian terrorist state think they understand war better than Tom Cooper.
If this is what ruzzians believe - this is great!
This is what the Ukrainians believe. Even they haven't made such ridiculous claims.
copium was of good quality today, mate?
Why don't you tell that to this guy
https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/47.8404/36.8538
Deepstate are Ukrainians. They will never post or show something GenShtab of Ukraine will not allow. So now they are in OPSEC mode - posting only official UA data. But as you like this version (quite old already, with lag of three-four days at least) of reality - it's ok (for you, of course).
Hahaha ok enjoy fantasyland
https://t.me/DeepStateUA - this is their official telegram channel. For unknown reason it's in Ukrainian. It's already almost official Ukraine source, so it has the same info as all other UA press. And I told you why already
It's pointless to feed trolls. Be patient: he's going to fall silent sooner, rather than later.
Yes, "OPSEC", as if the Russians don't know exactly where the Ukrainians are. At this point the "OPSEC" claims are nonsense, and any good news for the Ukrainians is published immediately through the General staff.
Yes, science fiction and fantasy, precisely along the plan for the '10-14-days Special Military Operation'...
Putin now knows he can 't win, so he's resorting to a scorched earth strategy as his army withdraws.
Peter Pomerantsev's article in the Guardian (about the unique Russian mindset) sums it up; "If Putin can't have Ukraine, no one can."
I doubt he really knows: word is he's refusing to hear any kind of 'bad news'.
Thank you, Tom. Hard slog advance. This will be a long summer.
Russian are claiming they overtook a lot of the lost positions. I guess we will need more time to know what exactly is going on.
where claims are coming from? with confirmation? you shall cite your sources, or you're in danger becoming the parrort of the propaganda.
Why would i want to spread RF sources to prove they are not propaganda when currently there is no confirmed information ?
Yes, they have claimed the recovery of every single village south of Velyka Novosilka listed above. Some even two times.
a lot of retired US army colonels/generals were puffing their face cheeks with "combined arms ops" rethorics, always "forgetting" to mention how their (US/NATO) combined ops were successful because of total air power superiority combined with long range missile bombings.
Considering the US Army never managed to 'adapt' the Autfragstaktik, but slogged every war since 1942 in form of a plump battle of attrition.... no surprise.
I do hope I'm not 'leaning too far out of the window' when concluding: this operation in the Velyka Novosilka-area wasn't planed with help of US advisors...
Hard to imagine what it costs to Zaluzhny to experiment with tactics when you know how many lives it will cost. Toughest job ever :(
.....well, people wonder how comes he's lost weight and looks aged....