Ukraine War, 13 June 2023

Good morning everybody!

Once again, I’m extremely short on time while lots of things are going on. Thus, I’ll remain ‘telegraphic’ today.

AIR/MISSILE WAR

Last night, 9 Tu-95s were airborne over the Caspian Sea. They released a total of 14 Kh-101/555 missiles at Ukraine. Four Shaheds were released from the ground. 10 cruise missiles and one LPGM were claimed shot down, at least one hit an apartment building in Kryiy Rih, killing at least three civilians, wounding many others.

The VKS is focusing a growing number of its tactical strikes to the Zaporizhzhya frontline. Between others, it’s Su-34s are deploying MPK/UMPK glide bombs to hit ‘suspected storage sites’ 20-40km behind Ukrainian lines. At the frontline, both the VKS and the PSU are regularly running ‘spray & pray’ attacks with unguided rockets.

Following the de-facto collapse of the Group of Forces Dnepr, caused by the Russian mining of the Kakhovka Dam, the VKS withdrew the mass of its air defence assets from the Dnipro River, and re-deployed them to southern Zaporizhzhya. On 9 June, the PSU exploited the opportunity to hit the headquarters of the Group of Forces Dnepr in a hotel in Genichesk with Storm Shadow missiles: word is the VSRF suffered ‘hundreds’ of losses.

In the air, the Russians claimed one Ukrainian MiG-29 as shot down on 9 June; Ukrainians claimed a Ka-52 shot down on the same day, and another one on 11 June. So far, there’s no evidence for any of these losses.

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove….Russians claim a new Ukrainian offensive in this area is in the making; there’s no ‘beep’ from the other side.

Bakhmut… ZSU is continuing to grind north and south of the ruined town, causing heavy losses to the defending VSRF in the process. In the north has reached Berkhivka, but in the south the fighting is still outside Klishchivka.

Avdiivka….Diversionary ZSU attacks at three points (two north-, one south of the town).

ZAPORIZHZHYA FRONT

Orikhiv… sadly, the 33^rd and 47^th Brigades are not getting through. Two days ago, they punched from Lobkove in south-western direction all the way to Luhove: were repelled and forced to withdraw all the way back. That said, sustained attacks in this area – while costly in terms of Leopards and M2 Bradleys, have forced the 58^th CAA to bring the 22^nd Spetsnaz brigade from the 2^nd, to the first line of defence. Ironically, all the attention of both the Russian and the Western media is focused on this sector, ‘because that’s where Leopards are’, and the Russians can show so many photos and videos…

Hulaipolye… similar: ZSU managed only minor dents in the Russian defences.

Zemledeliye ISDM, the Russian mine-sowing multiple rocket launcher: one of major reasons for failures of several ZSU attacks in the southern Zaporizhzhya. Essentially, whenever the Russians detect a new Ukrainian mechanised attack, they’re using this system to deploy additional minefields. When Ukrainians hit the same, suffer damage and stop, the Russians then call Ka-52 attack helicopters, artillery- and air strikes on them.

Velyka Novosilka….or, what the Russians call the ‘Vremivka Bulge’….this is from where there are best news for the ZSU, the last few days. Essentially, a group of (motorised) infantry- and mechanised infantry formations of the ZSU breached through with an ‘unspectacular’ infantry attack and is ever since running amok in the Russian rear.

Sadly, the map of developments of the last four days, drawn by Don Hill, is only partially ready, but here you are: see below. The ZSU run a series of nocturnal attacks along the eastern side of the Mokri Yaly River, usually starting in southern direction, before turning west, and then north, straight into the Russian back. Best of all: the river is the seam between the 58^th Combined Arms Army (CAA; western side) and the 35^th CAA (eastern side). This caught the Russians entirely unprepared and caused them massive losses. Example: the first to get overrun, the VSRF garrison of Neskuchne, counted 200: 60 were confirmed killed, 2-3 captured, the rest run away. It was similar in Blahodatne, Stoozheve, Makarivka, Staromayorske, and Urozhane. Eventually, the 60^th Motor Rifle Brigade (MRB) and the 366^th Naval Infantry Brigade were mauled and fell apart. As their scattered columns began fleeing down the road running west of the Mokri Yaly, they were ambushed at multiple points, suffering yet additional losses…

Something similar happened when the Russians brought in their ‘operational reserve’ in form of the 127^th MRD, from the 3rd defence line up to the Staromlynivka area and ordered it into a counterattack, on 10 June. This move was detected by ZSU on time and the division heavily shelled already while preparing, suffering numerous losses in tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, and guns.

Nevertheless, the Russians counterattacked. One prong went around Staromayorske to the north and attempted to recover Storozheve. There it run into the infantry of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence and was ambushed, suffering numerous losses. Another went east of the river and tried to hit the ZSU in Urozhaine from the east, but run into ambushes and mines and suffered heavy losses. Moreover, Ukrainians (apparently. 35th Naval Infantry and the 3rd Mechanised) then liberated Novodonetske and hit that Russian counterattack into its eastern flank… Finally, either on 10 or 11 June, the 127^th counterattacked on Makarivka, and suffered heavy losses again, enabling Ukrainians to relaunch their advance and reach Staromlynivka, yesterday in the morning: ever since, there is bitter fighting inside this village (or small town, if you like).

‘Quick & dirty’ map of developments in the area south of Velyka Novosilka of the last 4-5 days. The area denote ‘red’ is meanwhile obsolete: Ukrainians are in control of the area all the way down to…. say…. ‘centre’ of Staromlynivka. I’ll not go into developments ‘more recent’ than about 24 hours ago, though.

Moreover, Ukrainians have hit the HQ of the 35^th CAA, killing its Chief-of-Staff, Major-General Sergey Goryachev (said to have been a skilled commander).

Note: no matter if in the Bakhmut or in the Velyka Novosilka area, it’s interesting to watch the ZSU infantry fairing so much better than its armour, by night and by day, in static- or in manoeuvre warfare (indeed: easily outmatching whatever the Russians throw its way), as so often in this war…

Vuhledar…there are lots of reports indicating bitter fighting south-east of the town, approximately between Blahodatne and Volnovakha. Apparently, ZSU might have reached the Blahodatne area, back on 7-8 June, before the VSRF launched a counterattack from the east (with reserves re-deployed from the Donetsk area). The counterattack might have been partially successful in slowing down Ukrainian advance, but was then stopped and the troops in question re-deployed into defence positions south of Volnovakha. That, however, is about all I know regarding what’s going on there.   

DNIPRO

Since I’m neither suffering from ‘bothsidism’, nor forced to only report what my producer and his director think I should (or what they think ‘is a story’ or ‘no story’), let me remind you about the catastrophe the Russian scum has caused by mining the Kakhovka Dam. Few days ago, the debris of the resulting flooding – including few living animals, but also lots of bodies -  has reached the Odesa area (yes: 140 kilometres away), but meanwhile, the water levels are rapidly declining. Tragically, this is now revealing the fool scope of this catastrophe. Foremost in the Oleshky area, where somebody counted at least 90 bodies of drowned civilians yesterday alone. The Kakhovka Basin/Sea is rapidly disappearing, the Crimea channel too: it stopped flowing. The responsible Russian scum – the Group of Forces Dnepr – is meanwhile confirmed to have suffered dozens of casualties due to the actions of its own command staff (when their positions were swept by water masses), too, but continues to shell Ukrainian and foreign rescuers underway to evacuate people and animals, or their embarkation/disembarkation points in the Kherson area – and that every single day, at every opportunity.

The Russian scum narrowly missed this boat searching for survivors of the flooding caused by the Russian mining of the Kakhovka dam…

….rescue teams from multiple countries (Poland, for example) have meanwhile reached the Kherson area and are helping as much as they can, while the UNHCR can’t even mention what side is shelling the rescuers…