Thanks Tom! Unfortunately ZSU does have a fetish for such pointless actions as this one on the Kinburn Spit. I think it’s at least the second one to finish in the same way
Massive use of UAV and FPV makes such over the water actions (without air support) much harder. IMO that's the problem the not-mentioned ZSU general (still) misses.
I had a question that I never saw asked ( and therefore answered). Russian troops in TransNistria.
They can not be supplied ( I suppose ) from Russia.
Isn’t it like it would be an easy target for the Ukrainian army ?
I understand that this would mean a conflict extension to a new country but I suppose that the Moldovan government could call for help , in order to allow this cleaning operation. This would provide extra prisoners for exchange to the Ukrainians because I doubt those troops would have a very high fighting spirit, and fix one one of those vicious situations created by Russia a long time ago.
As far as I remember from my discussions with Moldovan friends when I went there and from media updates, on the one hand you have a bunch of pro Russian independentists and on the other hand 1500 Russians
That's right. But the Russians can't rotate and they've been taking local people into the Russian forces under contract for a long time. Besides, officially it's Moldova's territory. And the Moldovan authorities don't want a forceful solution.
They don't need to do that, Moldovan government plans to take them over by squeezing what's left of their economy in time. They already control the borders and customs on both sides, thanks to the cooperation with Ukrainians. And more methods are at work, including connecting the Moldovan energy grid via Romania so Transnistrians are left without any ability of blackmailing them with the usual Russian schtick of "we're freeze you"
It would just be unnecessarily messy. As Sergey pointed out, that small Russian grouping is basically native people in Russian uniform, there's just some Russian officers tnere. The rest of the population that still lives there are basically mostly pensioners.
They won't be a threat to anyone, any chances of that evaporated already after the Ukrainian victory at Voznesensk at the start of the war and the failure of the Russian drive to Odesa.
After all the smuggling and decades gone by, god knows what useful ammo is even left at the famed huge Soviet ammo depo at Chobasna. Everything just rotted away. There's just nothing useful in Transnistria for Ukraine.
A violent attention-getting cleansing is hugely risky for Moldova, and hands Russia the opportunity to claim victimisation of its people, for Western sympathy and inaction.
Much safer to quietly strangle the place until it dies a natural death.
Transnistria isn't such a simple case. From what I know it's basically an olygarchy that has a unique business model of getting Russian gas for free (via Ukraine), then manufacturing some stuff and exporting it to Moldova and the EU. And it's Russian-supported but not Russian-controlled.
In the beginning of the war Russia seemed to try to get them involved, there was some concerned noise in the EU and Moldova but then they vowed to stay neutral. Which seems to indicate that the problem is already resolved via backroom deals. The local oligarchs only want to make money after all and Putin's war is very bad for business. They still need Putin's free gas deliveries but won't go to war for him.
But again , TransNistria is a small region, with a very limited population ( 500 000 persons ) and plays a disturbing role for Moldova as well as vs Europe.
So i doubt they would be able to resist a proper offensive by the Ukrainian army.
Please excuse this question if it is overly simplistic. I am not well-read and not well-informed in Eastern European geo-politics.
Question: Assuming the TransNistria situation is resolved "somehow," would it be preferable for Moldova to unite or rather to re-unite with modern Romania? IIRC, Moldova was part of Romania prior to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
Preferable for who? As far as I know, Romania would rather help Moldova join the EU. No sane person wants to redraw maps nowadays.
Generally speaking, Eastern European countries have all spent the last decades trying to develop their economies from being as poor as Russia to being as rich as West European countries. Growing the size of the country is seen as pointless and as something only useless drunkards would care about.
Preferable for Moldova or for Romania or both???? There is a history of union between the two nations, after all. I wasn't in any way referring to a potential union originating from armed actions.
But the Ukrainian army has litearlly zero reasons to seek new enemies, even if weak ones. If Moldova wanted to attack Transnistria it's probably strong enough to do it on its own. But I'm sure the Moldovan government isn't this stupid and does not want to have an unnecessary war.
Transnistria will likely be integrated peacefully at some point in the future, after the Ukraine war is over. Or not, but even the chance of it happening is better than seeing even more unnecessary death and destruction.
Kicking Russians out of Transnistria would be beneficial for Moldova and EU... but there is almost no gain for Ukraine. Russians there are already neutralized and are posing no longer any real threat for Ukraine. So why should UKR squander any ressources to eliminate a non-relevant threat in a foreign country. Ukraine is still outgunned and outnumbered by Russia and has simply no army group to spare for such an adventure.
Since the main benefit would be reaped by Moldova and it's Moldovian territory, it's up to Moldova to kick Russians out. Additionally as long as Moldova isn't officially asking for UKR assistance any UKR attack on Transnistria would be registered as an aggressive act against another country by international community risking to end support for UKR.
I accept your points. But I still see a psychological value in such an operation , as TransNistria is one of the oldest Russian held zones within independent countries ( of course we can think about Georgia ), and freeing Moldova from this pressure would be low-cost operation from a military point of view but a major defeat for Poutine.
I accept that there are pros and cons . But given the very toxic role played by the TransNistrians oligarch this would be a great achievement nevertheless , and the sign that international frontiers might prevail ultimately
Anyhow for the time being , it is not on the agenda
So is the Kinburn Spit raid Col Gen Sodol's idea? Wasn't he canned and replaced? As far as sources go, the NYT and BBC have plenty, which is why they report the offensive was stopped days ago.
Tom: what kind of Sarcastic vitamins & minerals do you take every morning to keep you SARCASM bright & fresh (not including an IV mainlining coffee/espresso of a smoking rebreather).
On a weirder not....is EPHEDRA or EPHEDRINE still illegal in Europe??? I am asking for a friend (ME!!).
Ukrainians are digging trenches but didn't stop yet. I think nobody in the UKR General Staff is delusional to think that they can go forever on offensive. At some point they will be pushed to a standstill and afterwards into defensive by RUS mass meat attacks. The whole Russian nation and Pudding himself are for sure expecting from shtronk Russian Army to reconquer their holy native land, so they will throw everything they have at hand in the Kursk region.
This means for UKR it's now time to maximize enemy losses, while Russians are still trying to get their sh... together and already start digging trenches/prepare defensive strongholds, since when the time comes and RUS turns the tide it will be too late.
There is no resistance at all from the natives of the Kursk oblast. So I am not sure that "the whole Russian nation" is eager to reconquer this territory which is evidently considered as a faraway province. Everything Putler has at hand is now thrown into Donbass offensive. We shall see when and where the tide will turn and if it will turn at al.
We, ordinary Ukrainian civilians, can only rely on VSU and on Genstab to outwit Russian army. Whether to continue offensive or to stop the decision is in the competence of Sirsky. I can only say that this man is able to surprise anybody.
Oh, yes, put your hope in the idiot butchers who covered you, who did not ensure your safety, who collected taxes from you for NINE years (2014-2022) and did nothing. Don't you want to ask the authorities how it happened that they collected and increased year after year taxes on everything, as well as additional military levies, and the army still had nothing at the time of the invasion? Do you even know how many people went unprepared in the first days of the invasion and went missing? Normal authorities would actively prepare for the obvious, but not these marauding bastards. I despise you and people like them. Syrsky is as much an idiot as the Russian generals. His luck is explained by the fact that there are even bigger idiots on the opposite side. This game is called dumb and even dumber.
Ukrainian people are responsible for their choice. They wanted to hear about "looking in Putin's eyes" and cancelling military service for their children. All the rest is mere consequence of electing empty-headed greedy populists. Most of the Ukrainians who paid dear in this was voted that way. They did not want "normal authorities", they wanted to have their sons home.
First, I agree with you that people are to blame for all their troubles. If they are satisfied with such a marauding system in which they live, if they do not resist it, then they have only themselves to blame. Secondly, who do you think is the "normal" government, could you clarify this point for me? Please give a detailed answer. Who was the normal government during the entire independence of Ukraine and their specific merits? Thirdly, oligarchs always elect presidents and deputies to the Verkhovna Rada by consensus. Well, people are created the illusion that they have some choice, that they decide something. Ukraine is a good example of plutocracy. Although in fact there is an open mafia, which in the 90s seized everything in the state and exploits it.
For example: after Yanukovych's escape to Russia, Poroshenko (Waltzman) came to power in Ukraine, who enlisted the money and support of Dmytro Firtash and criminal baron Rinat Akhmetov. Do you at least know who Firtash is and with the help of whose special services he became a billionaire? And who did Poroshenko support in the US elections? Yes, he supported Trump. In the USA, his friends: Lutsenko, Shokin and Derkach got involved in the scandal. By the way, in the USA, Derkach was recognized as an agent of the Russian special services. Do you know where he ran to?) It is not a big secret for anyone that Viktor Pinchuk and Ihor Kolomoisky together with Rinat Akhmetov brought Zelensky to power. Yes, the oligarchs put their eggs in different baskets in order to always be in profit. In Zelenskyi's team and his Servant of the People party, all people belong to various oligarchs. By the way, what do you think of the fact that we are a declared parliamentary-presidential republic, and all presidents in Ukraine directly influence the legislative, judicial and all other branches of government through their parties? In the USA they say that we are a young democracy.
«Ukrainian people are responsible for their choice. They wanted to hear about "looking in Putin's eyes" and cancelling military service for their children. All the rest is mere consequence of electing empty-headed greedy populists. Most of the Ukrainians who paid dear in this was voted that way. They did not want "normal authorities", they wanted to have their sons home» – and you didn't think why the Ukrainians wanted this whole situation to end as soon as possible? And due to the fact that the Poroshenko (Waltzman) government criminally did not recognize the war as a war, Ukrainians were constantly dying, and the government brazenly engaged in looting, profiting from the grief and troubles of Ukrainians with the help of corruption schemes and did not solve the problem of war by actively preparing for it. That is why Ukrainians voted for Zelenskyi so that this whole situation would end as soon as possible. In 2022, the results of the training of the population and the army are known to everyone. Absolute panic of the authorities, the population, hundreds of thousands of corpses, colossal destruction and cries of the authorities that there are no weapons.
Modern "democracy" essentially differs little from medieval monarchies and feudalism. The same principles, the same family ties, clans and nepotism. It's just that all this is veiled by a certain screen called liberal democracy. To entertain yourself with the illusion that you voted and this is democracy is complete nonsense. In fact, this is just basic illiteracy and an inadequate perception of reality.
1) If he withdraws competent forces to attack the incursion, that ends the offensive in the south. Then Ukraine can simply withdraw to its old defensive lines, or any they may have established inside Kursk Oblast. Indeed, they will probably have good intel of that before it happens.
2) But it Putin doesn't counterattack with a substantial force, the Ukrainians can continue an embarrassing occupation. It also presents opportunities for raids even further into Russia.
Putin's obvious solution would be to increase mobilization. But in a manpower-stretched economy that's going to be a problem. And would take time as well.
Nobody knows how this will turn out. but I wouldn't want to be Putin or his generals just now. And appointing a non-military man like Dyumin to oversee this may be just another mistake...
Since you are talking about people who like to talk, one question I'm mildly curious about. Do all these talkative people know who they are talkative with? :) E.g. do all of your Russian contacts understand that they are giving info to the author of a blog about (among other things) kuddled orcs? :)
Particularly brutal sarcasm and detail in this update Tom. I loved it 😎👍.
Thank you and good night.
Too bad the 92nd kicked off too early, that could have been epic.
Thanks Tom! Unfortunately ZSU does have a fetish for such pointless actions as this one on the Kinburn Spit. I think it’s at least the second one to finish in the same way
Massive use of UAV and FPV makes such over the water actions (without air support) much harder. IMO that's the problem the not-mentioned ZSU general (still) misses.
This was a GUR operation, not ZSU.
The problem is this whole system of idiot marauders.
I had a question that I never saw asked ( and therefore answered). Russian troops in TransNistria.
They can not be supplied ( I suppose ) from Russia.
Isn’t it like it would be an easy target for the Ukrainian army ?
I understand that this would mean a conflict extension to a new country but I suppose that the Moldovan government could call for help , in order to allow this cleaning operation. This would provide extra prisoners for exchange to the Ukrainians because I doubt those troops would have a very high fighting spirit, and fix one one of those vicious situations created by Russia a long time ago.
As far as I know, most of the Russian troops in Transnistria are local people, not from Russia.
As far as I remember from my discussions with Moldovan friends when I went there and from media updates, on the one hand you have a bunch of pro Russian independentists and on the other hand 1500 Russians
That's right. But the Russians can't rotate and they've been taking local people into the Russian forces under contract for a long time. Besides, officially it's Moldova's territory. And the Moldovan authorities don't want a forceful solution.
They don't need to do that, Moldovan government plans to take them over by squeezing what's left of their economy in time. They already control the borders and customs on both sides, thanks to the cooperation with Ukrainians. And more methods are at work, including connecting the Moldovan energy grid via Romania so Transnistrians are left without any ability of blackmailing them with the usual Russian schtick of "we're freeze you"
I understand your point.
But « cleaning » the place would be also an important symbol and a psychological victory
It would just be unnecessarily messy. As Sergey pointed out, that small Russian grouping is basically native people in Russian uniform, there's just some Russian officers tnere. The rest of the population that still lives there are basically mostly pensioners.
They won't be a threat to anyone, any chances of that evaporated already after the Ukrainian victory at Voznesensk at the start of the war and the failure of the Russian drive to Odesa.
After all the smuggling and decades gone by, god knows what useful ammo is even left at the famed huge Soviet ammo depo at Chobasna. Everything just rotted away. There's just nothing useful in Transnistria for Ukraine.
A violent attention-getting cleansing is hugely risky for Moldova, and hands Russia the opportunity to claim victimisation of its people, for Western sympathy and inaction.
Much safer to quietly strangle the place until it dies a natural death.
Transnistria isn't such a simple case. From what I know it's basically an olygarchy that has a unique business model of getting Russian gas for free (via Ukraine), then manufacturing some stuff and exporting it to Moldova and the EU. And it's Russian-supported but not Russian-controlled.
In the beginning of the war Russia seemed to try to get them involved, there was some concerned noise in the EU and Moldova but then they vowed to stay neutral. Which seems to indicate that the problem is already resolved via backroom deals. The local oligarchs only want to make money after all and Putin's war is very bad for business. They still need Putin's free gas deliveries but won't go to war for him.
Yes I’m fully aware of the case.
But again , TransNistria is a small region, with a very limited population ( 500 000 persons ) and plays a disturbing role for Moldova as well as vs Europe.
So i doubt they would be able to resist a proper offensive by the Ukrainian army.
And I believe it would be a good move in order to strengthen the anti Poutin alliance
Please excuse this question if it is overly simplistic. I am not well-read and not well-informed in Eastern European geo-politics.
Question: Assuming the TransNistria situation is resolved "somehow," would it be preferable for Moldova to unite or rather to re-unite with modern Romania? IIRC, Moldova was part of Romania prior to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
Preferable for who? As far as I know, Romania would rather help Moldova join the EU. No sane person wants to redraw maps nowadays.
Generally speaking, Eastern European countries have all spent the last decades trying to develop their economies from being as poor as Russia to being as rich as West European countries. Growing the size of the country is seen as pointless and as something only useless drunkards would care about.
Preferable for Moldova or for Romania or both???? There is a history of union between the two nations, after all. I wasn't in any way referring to a potential union originating from armed actions.
But the Ukrainian army has litearlly zero reasons to seek new enemies, even if weak ones. If Moldova wanted to attack Transnistria it's probably strong enough to do it on its own. But I'm sure the Moldovan government isn't this stupid and does not want to have an unnecessary war.
Transnistria will likely be integrated peacefully at some point in the future, after the Ukraine war is over. Or not, but even the chance of it happening is better than seeing even more unnecessary death and destruction.
Kicking Russians out of Transnistria would be beneficial for Moldova and EU... but there is almost no gain for Ukraine. Russians there are already neutralized and are posing no longer any real threat for Ukraine. So why should UKR squander any ressources to eliminate a non-relevant threat in a foreign country. Ukraine is still outgunned and outnumbered by Russia and has simply no army group to spare for such an adventure.
Since the main benefit would be reaped by Moldova and it's Moldovian territory, it's up to Moldova to kick Russians out. Additionally as long as Moldova isn't officially asking for UKR assistance any UKR attack on Transnistria would be registered as an aggressive act against another country by international community risking to end support for UKR.
I accept your points. But I still see a psychological value in such an operation , as TransNistria is one of the oldest Russian held zones within independent countries ( of course we can think about Georgia ), and freeing Moldova from this pressure would be low-cost operation from a military point of view but a major defeat for Poutine.
I accept that there are pros and cons . But given the very toxic role played by the TransNistrians oligarch this would be a great achievement nevertheless , and the sign that international frontiers might prevail ultimately
Anyhow for the time being , it is not on the agenda
So is the Kinburn Spit raid Col Gen Sodol's idea? Wasn't he canned and replaced? As far as sources go, the NYT and BBC have plenty, which is why they report the offensive was stopped days ago.
Tom: what kind of Sarcastic vitamins & minerals do you take every morning to keep you SARCASM bright & fresh (not including an IV mainlining coffee/espresso of a smoking rebreather).
On a weirder not....is EPHEDRA or EPHEDRINE still illegal in Europe??? I am asking for a friend (ME!!).
I got it --sarcastasaurus-- you're a dinosaur of sarcasm!
No way!
Bevor ich lange suche, wofür steht dieser Akronym "PRBS" in den Posts? Danke.
PR and bullshitz😂
propaganda
I don`t detect any sarcasm
sar... wha's dad? :P
Ukrainian sources report that both sides in Kursk oblast stopped and began to dig trenches. According to you it is not the case.
Ukrainians are digging trenches but didn't stop yet. I think nobody in the UKR General Staff is delusional to think that they can go forever on offensive. At some point they will be pushed to a standstill and afterwards into defensive by RUS mass meat attacks. The whole Russian nation and Pudding himself are for sure expecting from shtronk Russian Army to reconquer their holy native land, so they will throw everything they have at hand in the Kursk region.
This means for UKR it's now time to maximize enemy losses, while Russians are still trying to get their sh... together and already start digging trenches/prepare defensive strongholds, since when the time comes and RUS turns the tide it will be too late.
There is no resistance at all from the natives of the Kursk oblast. So I am not sure that "the whole Russian nation" is eager to reconquer this territory which is evidently considered as a faraway province. Everything Putler has at hand is now thrown into Donbass offensive. We shall see when and where the tide will turn and if it will turn at al.
So does the Austrian media. And the Russian too.
....and then, as you can see, the Russian PRBS-industrialists are - actually - reporting a completely different story.
We, ordinary Ukrainian civilians, can only rely on VSU and on Genstab to outwit Russian army. Whether to continue offensive or to stop the decision is in the competence of Sirsky. I can only say that this man is able to surprise anybody.
Oh, yes, put your hope in the idiot butchers who covered you, who did not ensure your safety, who collected taxes from you for NINE years (2014-2022) and did nothing. Don't you want to ask the authorities how it happened that they collected and increased year after year taxes on everything, as well as additional military levies, and the army still had nothing at the time of the invasion? Do you even know how many people went unprepared in the first days of the invasion and went missing? Normal authorities would actively prepare for the obvious, but not these marauding bastards. I despise you and people like them. Syrsky is as much an idiot as the Russian generals. His luck is explained by the fact that there are even bigger idiots on the opposite side. This game is called dumb and even dumber.
Ukrainian people are responsible for their choice. They wanted to hear about "looking in Putin's eyes" and cancelling military service for their children. All the rest is mere consequence of electing empty-headed greedy populists. Most of the Ukrainians who paid dear in this was voted that way. They did not want "normal authorities", they wanted to have their sons home.
First, I agree with you that people are to blame for all their troubles. If they are satisfied with such a marauding system in which they live, if they do not resist it, then they have only themselves to blame. Secondly, who do you think is the "normal" government, could you clarify this point for me? Please give a detailed answer. Who was the normal government during the entire independence of Ukraine and their specific merits? Thirdly, oligarchs always elect presidents and deputies to the Verkhovna Rada by consensus. Well, people are created the illusion that they have some choice, that they decide something. Ukraine is a good example of plutocracy. Although in fact there is an open mafia, which in the 90s seized everything in the state and exploits it.
For example: after Yanukovych's escape to Russia, Poroshenko (Waltzman) came to power in Ukraine, who enlisted the money and support of Dmytro Firtash and criminal baron Rinat Akhmetov. Do you at least know who Firtash is and with the help of whose special services he became a billionaire? And who did Poroshenko support in the US elections? Yes, he supported Trump. In the USA, his friends: Lutsenko, Shokin and Derkach got involved in the scandal. By the way, in the USA, Derkach was recognized as an agent of the Russian special services. Do you know where he ran to?) It is not a big secret for anyone that Viktor Pinchuk and Ihor Kolomoisky together with Rinat Akhmetov brought Zelensky to power. Yes, the oligarchs put their eggs in different baskets in order to always be in profit. In Zelenskyi's team and his Servant of the People party, all people belong to various oligarchs. By the way, what do you think of the fact that we are a declared parliamentary-presidential republic, and all presidents in Ukraine directly influence the legislative, judicial and all other branches of government through their parties? In the USA they say that we are a young democracy.
«Ukrainian people are responsible for their choice. They wanted to hear about "looking in Putin's eyes" and cancelling military service for their children. All the rest is mere consequence of electing empty-headed greedy populists. Most of the Ukrainians who paid dear in this was voted that way. They did not want "normal authorities", they wanted to have their sons home» – and you didn't think why the Ukrainians wanted this whole situation to end as soon as possible? And due to the fact that the Poroshenko (Waltzman) government criminally did not recognize the war as a war, Ukrainians were constantly dying, and the government brazenly engaged in looting, profiting from the grief and troubles of Ukrainians with the help of corruption schemes and did not solve the problem of war by actively preparing for it. That is why Ukrainians voted for Zelenskyi so that this whole situation would end as soon as possible. In 2022, the results of the training of the population and the army are known to everyone. Absolute panic of the authorities, the population, hundreds of thousands of corpses, colossal destruction and cries of the authorities that there are no weapons.
Modern "democracy" essentially differs little from medieval monarchies and feudalism. The same principles, the same family ties, clans and nepotism. It's just that all this is veiled by a certain screen called liberal democracy. To entertain yourself with the illusion that you voted and this is democracy is complete nonsense. In fact, this is just basic illiteracy and an inadequate perception of reality.
As soon as I saw antisemitic "Waltzman" I understood that further discussion is senseless.
Great bit of sarcasm--and some sobering words.
But isn't Putin still on the horns of a dilemma?
1) If he withdraws competent forces to attack the incursion, that ends the offensive in the south. Then Ukraine can simply withdraw to its old defensive lines, or any they may have established inside Kursk Oblast. Indeed, they will probably have good intel of that before it happens.
2) But it Putin doesn't counterattack with a substantial force, the Ukrainians can continue an embarrassing occupation. It also presents opportunities for raids even further into Russia.
Putin's obvious solution would be to increase mobilization. But in a manpower-stretched economy that's going to be a problem. And would take time as well.
Nobody knows how this will turn out. but I wouldn't want to be Putin or his generals just now. And appointing a non-military man like Dyumin to oversee this may be just another mistake...
Regarding 1). They will retreat to Russian defense lines they broke through
Dear Tom. Do You have information about attacks on russian military airports tonight?
Nothing better but what's available on the social media.
See: UAV-strikes on Voronezh/Baltimor, Borisoglebsk, and Savasleivka.
Thanks for answer
Unrelated to the war in Ukraine. Check these Croatians flying Canadair CL 415, it's fantastic. https://youtu.be/NMFplx2kSks?si=Qv2TnUaccRe-b5EE
Since you are talking about people who like to talk, one question I'm mildly curious about. Do all these talkative people know who they are talkative with? :) E.g. do all of your Russian contacts understand that they are giving info to the author of a blog about (among other things) kuddled orcs? :)
Yes.
And here I was, picturing not just a Sarcastosaurus, but an occasionally undercover one, too...
Nothing I do is 'clandestine'.
Just 'unofficial'.
Others call the embassy, then search for official contacts, and try to run official interviews.
I'm networking.
I respect that. Thanks for the answer.
So the families of orcs who died in Sudzha will be officially informed that their loved one perished in Operation Pointless.