Good morning everybody! It’s a little bit strange situation: the amount and ferocity of panicky reports in the Russian social media about the situation in the Bakhmut area is reaching similar proportions like during their ‘humanitarian withdrawal’ from eastern Kharkiv, last year in September. The accounts in question are babbling about ‘breakthroughs’, ‘collapse of the frontline’, fighting for places 5km behind the frontline etc.
"you know what happened the last two times I was away (Ukraine sunk the Moskva guided missile cruiser, and, few months later, liberated Kherson). Thus, one can never know… 😉"
aber jetzt wissen wir es! 👍
Der liebe Sarcastosaurus🫵, bitte bleib sooooo lange unterwegs, so lange es nötig ist.
> I am no military expert, but I have a better view of morale in the Russian army. It is very low, and the two motives to go to war remain (1) rare chance to earn some money and (2) submissiveness
thank you for the clarification. I saw the "panic map" today and was wondering, how the hell could those small areas (separated even from each other) be a "big breaktrough"?
But, on the other hand, they are consistent. If capturing half of a potato field was a big ruzzian breakthrough, than losing it is a big ukrainian one.
May 12, 2023·edited May 12, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Thank you very much!
Your posts are very helpful in maintaining clarity of thinking amidst all the fantastic delusion that is generated every day, every hour, every minute and every second by "analysts", "bloggers" and other unhealthy people
You really provide your readers with the most objective and deepest pieces of analysis I have been able to find on the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. I follow you since the very beginning and I really thank you for sharing your expertise.
Your « special » on the Russian Air Force principles was absolutely mind blowing.
An offtopic. Tom, what do you think about those video of alleged Kinzhal warhead, shot down over Kyiv? Is it plausible for you or you think it's a disinformation?
Translation note: the labels (plates) tell it's only a warhead (big rude greenish bomb-like thing standing on the left) is from Kinzhal. The other wrecks are labeled as of Kh-55, and I'd guess there are also Iskander wrecks too, far on the letf. (It's an exhibition, not a wreck hit site).
Personal guess: the warhead looks for me as something like an old BetAB-500 with remade mounts and slightly filed nib, to fit in the missile's WH compartment. It fit's well in, well, you call it "System Putin", yet I'm not a missile specialist, maybe there's something absolutely impossible in this picture actually.
That's one of points where I disagree: the warhead is the warhead. It's installed inside the missile and can be of any kind of shape, but preferably has 'aerodynamic conus' at the front, so it can penetrate (if necessary).
Other pieces are shown something of the Tochka missile; thus, is likely to be a Kinzhal.
Could this be UA running shaping operations, and therefore also recon/probing skirmishes... And the Russian mobiks are literally fleeing anything that smells Ukrainian offensive in terror of what is to come?
Also, why are there so many normally daily sources seemingly in black out mode today (or at least delayed)? :D
Something must be happening. Not expecting amph.land. in Crimea, but something big must be going on somewhere.
Only you, Moscow Times, and Medusa of my daily reads are mentioning this at all.
Well, I guess we have to wait (for the sake of OPSEC), but a meta analysis might suggests good news will arrive within days.
Based on his record, we should take up a fund to send Tom on multiple holidays. By about the third or fourth, Zaluzhnyi will be marching through Red Square!
I have to say again: thank you Tom for objectiveness.
From my point of "genius strategist from sofa" , ZSU is trying attack.. from it simpler, safe, shorter, and more distance from russian artillery and bombs. And more difficulties for russian suply, logistic, reconnaissance.
The ZSU goal: just hold Bakhmut a little longer. And diminish llosses , on roads to Bakhmut mainly
"The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that the Russian Army has pulled back from the northern outskirts of Bakhmut to “more advantageous positions by the Berkhivka Reservoir.”
Wow, if this is true, then this is more than half of a potato field. And maybe a little safer for the traffic on the 0506 road. Even if these aren't The Big Breaktroughs, it's good to read news about UAF advances again after half a year of dry spell.
If the Ukrainians do something big every time you are away for a few days, you need to get out more often! :-D
Seriously, though, totally agree that these are all local counterattacks shaping local front lines and not some huge counteroffensive. Still, it's nice that the Russkies get all panicked over such "small beer".
Wish you to have a good time out
"you know what happened the last two times I was away (Ukraine sunk the Moskva guided missile cruiser, and, few months later, liberated Kherson). Thus, one can never know… 😉"
aber jetzt wissen wir es! 👍
Der liebe Sarcastosaurus🫵, bitte bleib sooooo lange unterwegs, so lange es nötig ist.
Danach erfahren wir alles. 🫡
Was auch immer. Schlimmer wirds nimmer.
toi-toi-toi 🙏🤞✌️
Also rumors are, morale in Russia is low, see Greg Yudin's thread https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1656074738761105408:
> I am no military expert, but I have a better view of morale in the Russian army. It is very low, and the two motives to go to war remain (1) rare chance to earn some money and (2) submissiveness
thank you for the clarification. I saw the "panic map" today and was wondering, how the hell could those small areas (separated even from each other) be a "big breaktrough"?
But, on the other hand, they are consistent. If capturing half of a potato field was a big ruzzian breakthrough, than losing it is a big ukrainian one.
No, I probably couldn't. So?
The suffering of the individual soldiers (on each sides) doesn't make the achievements bigger.
Maybe you let Russians pass through YOUR contry first and we shall see the result.
Thank you very much!
Your posts are very helpful in maintaining clarity of thinking amidst all the fantastic delusion that is generated every day, every hour, every minute and every second by "analysts", "bloggers" and other unhealthy people
You really provide your readers with the most objective and deepest pieces of analysis I have been able to find on the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. I follow you since the very beginning and I really thank you for sharing your expertise.
Your « special » on the Russian Air Force principles was absolutely mind blowing.
Thank you, Tom
Thanks, Tom, for your clarification about “the Big Push (in RuZZian Eyes)”. It’s really valuable.
Und Viel Spaß!!!
Thank you Tom.
Funny that your conclusion is exactly the same as came from the most of Ukrainian retired officers.
But ruzzians are in panic mode for some reason.
An offtopic. Tom, what do you think about those video of alleged Kinzhal warhead, shot down over Kyiv? Is it plausible for you or you think it's a disinformation?
Supplementary content for other readers - alleged failed Kinzhal wrecks from Russia: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fv0vC69WAAAY0H7?format=png&name=900x900
Supplementary content - the video in question: https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1656289377129988096?s=20
Translation note: the labels (plates) tell it's only a warhead (big rude greenish bomb-like thing standing on the left) is from Kinzhal. The other wrecks are labeled as of Kh-55, and I'd guess there are also Iskander wrecks too, far on the letf. (It's an exhibition, not a wreck hit site).
Personal guess: the warhead looks for me as something like an old BetAB-500 with remade mounts and slightly filed nib, to fit in the missile's WH compartment. It fit's well in, well, you call it "System Putin", yet I'm not a missile specialist, maybe there's something absolutely impossible in this picture actually.
That's one of points where I disagree: the warhead is the warhead. It's installed inside the missile and can be of any kind of shape, but preferably has 'aerodynamic conus' at the front, so it can penetrate (if necessary).
Other pieces are shown something of the Tochka missile; thus, is likely to be a Kinzhal.
Thanks for the clear information
Could this be UA running shaping operations, and therefore also recon/probing skirmishes... And the Russian mobiks are literally fleeing anything that smells Ukrainian offensive in terror of what is to come?
Also, why are there so many normally daily sources seemingly in black out mode today (or at least delayed)? :D
Something must be happening. Not expecting amph.land. in Crimea, but something big must be going on somewhere.
Only you, Moscow Times, and Medusa of my daily reads are mentioning this at all.
Well, I guess we have to wait (for the sake of OPSEC), but a meta analysis might suggests good news will arrive within days.
"Russian mobics are literally fleeing " SO FAST, 200-500 m during 50 hours. What is the average speed of "fleeing"?
Based on his record, we should take up a fund to send Tom on multiple holidays. By about the third or fourth, Zaluzhnyi will be marching through Red Square!
I have to say again: thank you Tom for objectiveness.
From my point of "genius strategist from sofa" , ZSU is trying attack.. from it simpler, safe, shorter, and more distance from russian artillery and bombs. And more difficulties for russian suply, logistic, reconnaissance.
The ZSU goal: just hold Bakhmut a little longer. And diminish llosses , on roads to Bakhmut mainly
Wish you (and us) a very pleasant off time!
"The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that the Russian Army has pulled back from the northern outskirts of Bakhmut to “more advantageous positions by the Berkhivka Reservoir.”
Wow, if this is true, then this is more than half of a potato field. And maybe a little safer for the traffic on the 0506 road. Even if these aren't The Big Breaktroughs, it's good to read news about UAF advances again after half a year of dry spell.
BTW: are you on holiday yet? :)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1656985383391973376
....actually: yes....
Good, it has the expected effect!
If the Ukrainians do something big every time you are away for a few days, you need to get out more often! :-D
Seriously, though, totally agree that these are all local counterattacks shaping local front lines and not some huge counteroffensive. Still, it's nice that the Russkies get all panicked over such "small beer".