Ukraine War, 12 May 2023: Prigozhin's Flea Circus

Good morning everybody!

It’s a little bit strange situation: the amount and ferocity of panicky reports in the Russian social media about the situation in the Bakhmut area is reaching similar proportions like during their ‘humanitarian withdrawal’ from eastern Kharkiv, last year in September. The accounts in question are babbling about ‘breakthroughs’, ‘collapse of the frontline’, fighting for places 5km behind the frontline etc.

Hand on heart: I have no idea why. I’ll be happy if somebody can correct me but, to the best of my knowledge, as of this morning, all I can say is that several of ZSU brigades are actually running local counterattacks with the aim of lessening the Russian pressure upon Ukrainian supply roads into the town. Deepest advances of the last two days went some 500-600 metres, at most. Arguably, yes, the Russians have run away in quite a lots of places, have abandoned lots of armament, ammo and supplies (including lots of anti-tank guided missiles, about which they complain they have none) - and/or have suffered few hundreds of losses when not - but: in grand total., as of right now, I can only call this ‘battlefield shaping’.

A still from a video shown Russian troops (right) running away from either a T-64 or T-72 tank (left) of the 3rd Assault Brigade, back on 9 or 10 May.

Still, as of yesterday evening, the situation reached a point where the Keystone Cops in Moscow reacted with a warning for the (Russian) public that ‘certain Telegram channels’ are, essentially, spreading lies. Remarkably, the statement in question didn’t mention Bakhmut with a single letter. But, hey: the VSRF is ‘not there’ – Wagner is - so no surprise.

Ironically, for once, I cannot but side with the Keystone Cops. As of this morning, there is no evidence for the ZSU even trying to achieve anything like ‘deep’ (at least no deeper than 500-700m) breach of any of the Russian lines.

But, let’s have a look at ‘details’…

1.)    Many Russians are claiming the ZSU attacking ‘flanks’, ‘bypassing’ Bakhmut, ‘encircling Wagner’. Up front: the Road 0506 in the Hromove area, and the Road 0504 in the Ivanivske area are no ‘flanks’ of the Russian positions in the Bakhmut area. They’re much too close to the Schwerpunkt (‘focus’) of recent fighting for a serious counteroffensive with the aim of encircling the Russians inside Bakhmut. At most, they’re ‘flanks’ of Ukrainian positions in the western side of the town. Much more, though: they are the ‘lifelines’ of ZSU units there. They’re crucial to keep Ukrainian units inside Bakhmut resupplied. Thus, it’s logical the ZSU is – after months of struggling to keep the Russians away from them because it was lacking artillery ammunition and heavy infantry weapons – now, when it has enough ammo on hand, counterattacking to lessen the Russian pressure.  

2.)    Another typical example is the mention of a ‘breakthrough’ in direction – or even into the area – of Berkhivka and Yahidne: not only that both are – ‘still’ – too close to Bakhmut; they are too densely built-up but to be used for a quick advance deep into the enemy rear. Actually, the 92^nd Mech and the Belarus Volunteer Corps have pushed the Russians ‘two fields’ away from the Road 0506, north of Hromove: Berkhivka and Yahidne are ‘next villages’ behind the Russian positions in this sector of the frontline.

3.)    Third typical claim is the mention of a ‘breakthrough’ in direction of Klishchivka. AFAIK, this is a much belated reaction to what happened to the 72^nd Motor Rifle Brigade (VSRF) south of Ivanviske, two-three days ago (see my earlier report). The 3^rd Assault and the 80^th Airborne attacked there in order to force the Russians out of the direct sight on the Road 0504: destroyed something like two companies of the 72nd. As of yesterday, both were still busy mopping up and collecting all the ‘ghanima’ (loot) left behind by the fleeing Russians… And even if: Klishchivka is positioned deep between two hills. It would be pointless trying to take it without either securing ‘that hill above Klishchivka’ (west of the village) or actually driving through the village – either on Vesela Dolyna or Zaitseve, but even better: on Klynove. Which just didn’t happen.

4.) …with which I’m at the, perhaps, most crucial issue here. Any kind of a (serious) counteroffensive with the aim of encircling Bakhmut would be overdependent on speed: on the ZSU quickly punching through the Russian frontline and then driving 10-15 (or more) kilometres deep, so to ‘sack’ the Russians inside Bakhmut before they – or their reserves further to the rear – can react and counterattack. Taking two days to, for example, advance 5km from the Siverskyi Donets-Donbass Canal to Klishchivka would be much too slow for that.

Bottom line, the only Russian claim about an Ukrainian counterattack that’s making sense to me was the one from the area of Kurdyumivka: that’s 20km south of Bakhmut – and thus ‘making sense’ for an operation of ‘encircling the Russian group of forces in the Bakhmut area at operational level’ (i.e. ‘more than just a tactical operation’). Even then, no reason for anybody’s pulse to go up even a notch over this claim – except you get to hear that the ZSU reached the area of, say, Vershyna or Klynove. Didn’t happen (indeed: there’s no evidence Ukrainians have recovered at least Kudyumivka): thus, no need to fantasise.

….if at all, start doing that only once you get to hear the Russian calls for close air support.

I can be perfectly wrong of course (and my contacts too busy but to let me know what’s going on), however, right now, conclusion is on hand that the ZSU is running ‘local counterattacks’, ‘shaping the battlefield’ so to secure its grip on western Bakhmut. And the Russians - especially Prigozhin - are panicking already about this, which is ‘nice’, but is going to be of use only in ‘long term’.

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On the lighter side…. Well, I’m about to be away from my ‘office’ for a few days. And you know what happened the last two times I was away (Ukraine sunk the Moskva guided missile cruiser, and, few months later, liberated Kherson). Thus, one can never know… 😉