It may be too early for that, as the final plan here should be clear first. And I think it would be clear only after 1-3 additional checkpoints are seized or not, like at least Tetkino, and maybe Krupets and Kolotilovka. Then the groupings would be logistically safe.
So the Russians can no longer filter out the bullshit, and we never could. Well, that sucks. And I'm glad I'm not alone in noticing how quickly the media went from "OH MY GOD! UKRAINE INVADED RUSSIA!" to "The RU has stopped the UA. Let's discuss how badly the UA will suffer for this and how this was a big mistake." This was no mistake. This was one of the most beautiful haymakers I've ever seen, and they never saw it coming. And they put the FSB in charge of the fight which is even better. Why fight a professional (even if they suck) when you can fight a secret policeman instead?
Soviet propaganda was hamstrung by the need to push an ideology that was evidently not working. Pudding's neo-tsarism uses political theory only as a canvas to pick ideas that happen to appeal to their subjects, it's completely self-serving.
The irony is for all claims of traditionalism it is probably the most postmodern mismash of a system out there.
I will say that I have not seen any media saying UA has been stopped. I hear them saying that the Russians say they are stopped and then go on to say that this does not appear to be the case.
I also hear a lot of supposition on what the aims of the invasion are, but every time, what Tom describes as a Wild Boar Hunt (i.e a significant raid to hammer Russian assets), is one of the options presented and usually the only option that the analysts think makes any real sense.
Maybe I've only been listening to people who have a clue what they are seeing, but that's been my experience.
The real worry I hear in everyone's commentary is the concern that the UA may overextend. May get in so far that they can't get out when they need to. For all the evident confusion on the Russian side right now, the Russians still have the capability to put a lot of men in the field against the UA _eventually_. As long as the Ukrainians recognise when the tide starts to turn early enough to pull back to whatever extent they intend to defend and manage to remain the hunters of the wild board and not become the boars, then all will be well.
As long as they don't overextend in this assault, there is no downside for the Ukrainians in this action.
Certainly the stomping they are giving both the individual Russian units and the Russian general staff's mindset is worth the cost and risk to date and if they can actually get a lot of the captured Russian equipment and arms back to Ukraine, then better still.
Refreshing to read this. Many experten meanwhile have already concluded this whole op is a fiasco, with bloody losses, no real achievement they say, aided by articles coming from the likes of the New Ork Times.
Not wery popular in russia when conscripts are lost. I guess they will be given the chance to take a phonecall to mom, when they are safe inside Ukraine .-)
There are hundreds of different footages and short interviews with them already: they blame Pu, Akhmad, Lapin, commanders. They cry, they ask mommies to take them home. On the other hand they are fresh, clean, in dry clothes, not starving.
Perfect picture for entire Russia. In 2-3 weeks results will be felt
The strange thing is that the civilian population does not resist at all... In Ukraine it was completely different - people organized themselves into territorial defense, but in Kursk none of the local patriots are visible at all...
Anount of PoWs captured by ZSU is a perfect sign for motivation and readiness of Pu soldiers to die for “Motherland”. To loose around 10% of grouping size as PoWed says a lot…
There was a funny video 2 days ago of a Russian guy in now UKR occupied territory. He said that his papers were checked by an Ukranian soldier, who was not rude to him (seems to be so unusual for him to mention it). When he asked the UKR soldier what he shall do, the soldier replied: "Learn the Ukrainian Anthem and prepare for a Referendum".
Finally the Russian guy even concluded that "if the Russians can't protect us, maybe the Ukrainians can".
It turns out that the Russians don’t want to fight for free, even on their own land, but for a contract of 20,000 dollars in lifting - you’re always welcome
A question that has been bothering me. While the Kursk-1 nuclear power plant is certainly not a politically "acceptable" target, do you think the Kursk-2 site, which is still undergoing construction with two brand new reactors which are the first of their kind, would not make a very appetizing target? Some bombardment and that's billions of loss for the Russian economy, and a further loss of face.
Me thinks Kyiv could make Ru to make it by own hands. Or to run something like false flag OP. Sometimes even underwater pipes are exploding by their own…
Well, around 200,000 civilians were meanwhile evacuated from three regions of south-western Kursk where 'terrorist emergency' was declared. How many of these are really 'fleeing on their own decision' is unclear.
Many - especially elders - were left behind, and they are not showing any kind of interest in fleeing.
Actually, today also a case became known, where a VSRF unit that captured a few troops form one of ZSU brigades, decided to capitulate after figuring out it's completely surrounded. So, all the Ukrainian POWs were returned to the ZSU, right away, too.
Mind that there are some old people in villages who still remember they are ethnic Ukrainians. Some of them still speak dialect which is more Ukrainian than Russian. I think the whole war is madness for them but now the situation is really surrealistic. Who is "ours" and who is "alien"?
Sudzha gas knot is a good example: satellites show damaged object. Not a word from ru side about “barbarians destroying export infrastructure”: so could be easy their “precise weapon” having destroyed it
Exactly, that’s why Kursk2 could be easily destroyed by ru itself. If they have to free terrain to secure better positions for negotiations. Maybe it is ZSU plan, who knows
The fact that Ukrainians floated the idea their buildup was over fear of a Russian incursion from Sumy, and that Russia "knew" Ukraine would at worst do a cross border raid and withdraw adds to the beauty of the operation
"(Reuters) - U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham called Ukraine's shock cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region "brilliant" and "bold" in a visit to Kyiv on Monday, and he urged the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.”
Can’t say I agree with Lindseed on much, but I’m not having that problem here.
On the subject of swine, don’t feel too out about the invasion Tom. The USA and Canada have same likewise with “feral” swine. They are can’t be culled by hunters though, seeming to have the unfettered capacity to reproduce non-stop and more than redeem their losses. One type of piggy in Canada is called a super swine, a mean looking critter indeed from photographs. I trust your swine are not “super”, but if they are, you may want to go armed.
Using sport hunters to eradicate a pest species never works, because it's not in the hunters' interests to eradicate the species. The hunters take care to ensure that enough young animals survive to provide next season's hunt, while showing off their large adult kills to authorities and the general public.
To clarity, point here is not about culling “undesirables", only driving them from your back yard, be they boars or neighbors with imperialistic ambitious in their head.
Talk about blind folds that don't allow one to actually see a bigger picture. Tom D. (Georgia USA)
Brings new meaning to the old US Army saying. "Our business is killing, and business is good."
Great Megadeth album too
You know what would really spice things up and throw the Russians into a tizz ... a secondbbreakthrough somewhere in Ukraine
You have to wonder if the Ukrainian's have something up their sleave!!
It may be too early for that, as the final plan here should be clear first. And I think it would be clear only after 1-3 additional checkpoints are seized or not, like at least Tetkino, and maybe Krupets and Kolotilovka. Then the groupings would be logistically safe.
Thank you. I agree that many pundits are completely overthinking Ukrainian objectives.
So the Russians can no longer filter out the bullshit, and we never could. Well, that sucks. And I'm glad I'm not alone in noticing how quickly the media went from "OH MY GOD! UKRAINE INVADED RUSSIA!" to "The RU has stopped the UA. Let's discuss how badly the UA will suffer for this and how this was a big mistake." This was no mistake. This was one of the most beautiful haymakers I've ever seen, and they never saw it coming. And they put the FSB in charge of the fight which is even better. Why fight a professional (even if they suck) when you can fight a secret policeman instead?
Soviet propaganda was hamstrung by the need to push an ideology that was evidently not working. Pudding's neo-tsarism uses political theory only as a canvas to pick ideas that happen to appeal to their subjects, it's completely self-serving.
The irony is for all claims of traditionalism it is probably the most postmodern mismash of a system out there.
I will say that I have not seen any media saying UA has been stopped. I hear them saying that the Russians say they are stopped and then go on to say that this does not appear to be the case.
I also hear a lot of supposition on what the aims of the invasion are, but every time, what Tom describes as a Wild Boar Hunt (i.e a significant raid to hammer Russian assets), is one of the options presented and usually the only option that the analysts think makes any real sense.
Maybe I've only been listening to people who have a clue what they are seeing, but that's been my experience.
The real worry I hear in everyone's commentary is the concern that the UA may overextend. May get in so far that they can't get out when they need to. For all the evident confusion on the Russian side right now, the Russians still have the capability to put a lot of men in the field against the UA _eventually_. As long as the Ukrainians recognise when the tide starts to turn early enough to pull back to whatever extent they intend to defend and manage to remain the hunters of the wild board and not become the boars, then all will be well.
As long as they don't overextend in this assault, there is no downside for the Ukrainians in this action.
Certainly the stomping they are giving both the individual Russian units and the Russian general staff's mindset is worth the cost and risk to date and if they can actually get a lot of the captured Russian equipment and arms back to Ukraine, then better still.
There is a concern that a Ukraine might overextend. This is something that could happen, the last sentence of Tom points to that. Errors can be made.
Absolutely. That's the worry, ain't it?
Yes. But i cannot judge that, just hope they dont.
Old Russian motto - when in doubt, bomb everything.
Refreshing to read this. Many experten meanwhile have already concluded this whole op is a fiasco, with bloody losses, no real achievement they say, aided by articles coming from the likes of the New Ork Times.
Thanks for the update Tom.
Not wery popular in russia when conscripts are lost. I guess they will be given the chance to take a phonecall to mom, when they are safe inside Ukraine .-)
There are hundreds of different footages and short interviews with them already: they blame Pu, Akhmad, Lapin, commanders. They cry, they ask mommies to take them home. On the other hand they are fresh, clean, in dry clothes, not starving.
Perfect picture for entire Russia. In 2-3 weeks results will be felt
The strange thing is that the civilian population does not resist at all... In Ukraine it was completely different - people organized themselves into territorial defense, but in Kursk none of the local patriots are visible at all...
Not to mention troops looting their own people. This only further shows how Pudding's subjugation and demoralisation of Russia is complete.
Anount of PoWs captured by ZSU is a perfect sign for motivation and readiness of Pu soldiers to die for “Motherland”. To loose around 10% of grouping size as PoWed says a lot…
I guess they are still enjoying the risk-free jokes about Putin, his lovers and his oligarchy.
Getting bombed by your own military does not foster esprit de corps.
There was a funny video 2 days ago of a Russian guy in now UKR occupied territory. He said that his papers were checked by an Ukranian soldier, who was not rude to him (seems to be so unusual for him to mention it). When he asked the UKR soldier what he shall do, the soldier replied: "Learn the Ukrainian Anthem and prepare for a Referendum".
Finally the Russian guy even concluded that "if the Russians can't protect us, maybe the Ukrainians can".
So, also not much patriotism visible there.
It turns out that the Russians don’t want to fight for free, even on their own land, but for a contract of 20,000 dollars in lifting - you’re always welcome
A question that has been bothering me. While the Kursk-1 nuclear power plant is certainly not a politically "acceptable" target, do you think the Kursk-2 site, which is still undergoing construction with two brand new reactors which are the first of their kind, would not make a very appetizing target? Some bombardment and that's billions of loss for the Russian economy, and a further loss of face.
Nope. Doubt anybody in Kyiv is curious to assume responsibilities of that kind.
Me thinks Kyiv could make Ru to make it by own hands. Or to run something like false flag OP. Sometimes even underwater pipes are exploding by their own…
Mind that the more of Russia the ZSU occupies, the more it has to garrison, too.
Absolutely true. That’s why i think real aims of OP are everything else, but terrain gains))
Why? Aren't the Russians from the Ukrainians as the Germans were running from the Soviets due to their own Propaganda?
Well, around 200,000 civilians were meanwhile evacuated from three regions of south-western Kursk where 'terrorist emergency' was declared. How many of these are really 'fleeing on their own decision' is unclear.
Many - especially elders - were left behind, and they are not showing any kind of interest in fleeing.
Actually, today also a case became known, where a VSRF unit that captured a few troops form one of ZSU brigades, decided to capitulate after figuring out it's completely surrounded. So, all the Ukrainian POWs were returned to the ZSU, right away, too.
Mind that there are some old people in villages who still remember they are ethnic Ukrainians. Some of them still speak dialect which is more Ukrainian than Russian. I think the whole war is madness for them but now the situation is really surrealistic. Who is "ours" and who is "alien"?
Well if everybody is fleeing, you don't have to garrison and even if there are only elderly left, they won't make troubles.
Sudzha gas knot is a good example: satellites show damaged object. Not a word from ru side about “barbarians destroying export infrastructure”: so could be easy their “precise weapon” having destroyed it
They cannot advertise their weakness, namely losing a unique infrastructure
Exactly, that’s why Kursk2 could be easily destroyed by ru itself. If they have to free terrain to secure better positions for negotiations. Maybe it is ZSU plan, who knows
The fact that Ukrainians floated the idea their buildup was over fear of a Russian incursion from Sumy, and that Russia "knew" Ukraine would at worst do a cross border raid and withdraw adds to the beauty of the operation
Totally snooker'd them
This time Budanov did a great job: it was him telling in every interview about Sumy in danger
What a brilliant analogy, Tom; a wild boar hunt.
"(Reuters) - U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham called Ukraine's shock cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region "brilliant" and "bold" in a visit to Kyiv on Monday, and he urged the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.”
Can’t say I agree with Lindseed on much, but I’m not having that problem here.
On the subject of swine, don’t feel too out about the invasion Tom. The USA and Canada have same likewise with “feral” swine. They are can’t be culled by hunters though, seeming to have the unfettered capacity to reproduce non-stop and more than redeem their losses. One type of piggy in Canada is called a super swine, a mean looking critter indeed from photographs. I trust your swine are not “super”, but if they are, you may want to go armed.
Using sport hunters to eradicate a pest species never works, because it's not in the hunters' interests to eradicate the species. The hunters take care to ensure that enough young animals survive to provide next season's hunt, while showing off their large adult kills to authorities and the general public.
It worked against wolves and boars in post-WW2 USSR. We've got next to no wolves left in Ukraine, and the boars don't attack people anymore.
To clarity, point here is not about culling “undesirables", only driving them from your back yard, be they boars or neighbors with imperialistic ambitious in their head.
He's about as trustworthy as a hungry wild boar. Flip-flops all the time according to what he perceives as his best interests.
Yes, I noticed that I suddenly agreed with Lindsay Graham. Bit surprising that one.
Thanks for this very good report I'm liking it from every direction, some of the best news I've read in a while Keep it up Ukraine
In older posts you mentioned specific regiments and battallions coming in to reinforce the russian side, how do you know that information?
Some is from private contacts, others from 'scrounging' the social media (for example: info on the 810th Naval Infantry).