Ukraine War, 12 August 2024: Wildschweinjagd (UPDATED)

Good evening everybody!

(….and good morning for those who might read this only in the morning…)

Reading all the guessing about the purposes of the Ukrainian operation into the Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation - of which there’s abundance both in the Western mainstream- as well as the social media, the last few days - and then all the declarations by Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists (and his faithful fans in the West) about how the Russians ‘stopped’ the ‘invasion’…. reminded me of two things.

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1.) Back in the times of the ‘good ol’ USSR’, much of its population developed excellent skills in ‘reading between the lines’ of the officially published rubbish: in figuring out what is really going on, regardless how much their own authorities lied to them. And the ‘Radio Yerevan’ was working miracles at the times, too.

30+ years later, and after 20+ years of being subjected to the calculations of the System Putin, the post-Soviet-Russians have lost that skill.

….while, quite ironically, ‘we’, the Westerners, have never even developed it. We’ve assumed that our ‘free media’ is always reporting ‘truth, nothing but the truth, so God help us…’

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2.) The other thing that came to my mind when reading all the guessing about the purposes of the Ukrainian offensive, and then chatting with contacts in Ukraine, is something that’s happening several times a year in the are where I’m living. Indeed, one of such ‘thingies’ is taking place as I’m typing it: I can hear the shots outside…

I’m living in the countryside, relatively isolated, and quite close to the border to Hungary. Now, don’t ask me why, but: several times a year, we are experiencing outright ‘invasions’ of wild boars. They move in over the border in big ‘families’… and…. well, for a host of reasons (including damage to the agriculture, traffic accidents, even threat for safety of people on the streets of local villages), then the local hunters are granted official permission to run ‘extra hunting seasons’. And they shot them in big numbers.

Here this is called the ‘Wildschweinjagd’. Not sure if ‘boar hunting’ is offering a proper impression of what ‘an event’ a Wildschweinjagd is. Because, hunters not only have to use ‘really big, very loud rifles’, but are then proudly boasting with their game - when driving back home, early the next morning, often in SUVs packed by 2-3-4 boars weighting 100+ kilogram each…

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Why did I start with these two ‘examples’?

Well, think of it: is it a surprise when Pudding-fans in the West have managed to convince everybody that Ukraine is ‘bleed to death’, has no troops left, no resources left, and is gambling va banque when launching an offensive into Russia? And what a surprise then, when Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists have it easy to convince even most serious Western Experten into having ‘stopped’ this offensive…

And, is it a surprise if the ZSU is actually running an outright ‘Wildschweinjagd’ in Kursk - which means that the actual purposes of this operation are ‘relatively simple’? Indeed, so simple, people seem to be ignoring that option.

Please mind,

• the fact that both Ukrainians and their Western ‘allies’ are tired of war (Ukrainian troops even more so), does not mean the Ukrainians now ‘must stop fighting’, or ‘is certain to lose the war’, even less so ‘they can’t run offensive operations’, while,

• the fact they are running an offensive into Russia does not ‘automatically’ mean their political and military leadership must have crystal clear ideas about potential political, diplomatic, economic, military etc. results.

Sometimes, there are situations at war when one runs specific operations not to seize terrain or whatever other reason but, ‘merely’ for the purpose of destroying as much of enemy manpower and equipment as possible. Which, hand on heart, is the actual purpose of every war: indeed, the core essence of why wars are fought. Especially at wars as big as this one. It is just so that ‘we’ haven’t fought wars as big as this one for 70+ years. And thus, ‘we’ have forgotten about such requirements.

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This is becoming obvious when chatting with contacts in Russia, these days. At least one impression is unavoidable: some are so stunned, so surprised by the ‘brazen’ Ukrainian ‘invasion’, they can’t comprehend it. Can’t understand it is happening. This is not only valid for private persons, for veteran officers of the VSRF and the VSK, but for their active commanders too. They’re so much surprised, so much shocked, it’s hard to describe. Alone the realisation this is no ‘raid’, but Ukrainians ‘dare’, ‘invading’, ‘holly Russian land’, have decimated two battalions of the VSRF, sacked much of two VSRF regiments (over 1,000 POWs), much of an FSB company (45 POWs), a battalion of border guards (over 200 POWs… BTW, they are FSB-controlled, too), scared a regiment of the Akhmat into fleeing all the way to Kursk (in addition to capturing up to 50 of them) etc., not to talk about forcing the authorities into an evacuation of more than 80,000 civilians (likely to grow to more than 200,000 in the coming days) is entirely incomprehensible for most of them.

A Marder IFV of the 22nd Mech on advance.

The result is a panic and a command system in a state of chaos. In the last few days, it didn’t happen just once a pair of Su-25s has bombed own troops (like in the well-known case on 7 Aug, when a company of the 488th Motor-Rifle Regiment was hit): meanwhile, this is de facto a ‘norm’. The GenStab has no idea where is who, the headquarters of the OSK West and South have no ideas either, and thus the VKS has no idea where are own and where are Ukrainian units. There are so many ‘red-on-red’ clashes, that I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out, the VSRF lost at least as many tanks and troops in this battle to own fire and air strikes, as to Ukrainian fire. Just for example: early this morning (12 August), crews of Ka-52 attack helicopters decimated one of VSRF artillery batteries rushed towards the battlefield from the east (and that at least 15km behind the forward line of contact!).

A rare view of a Tunguska self-propelled air defence system of the ZSU in action - and that inside the Kursk Oblast. AFAIK, there are only two Ukrainian brigades including air-defence elements equipped with them.

Now, perhaps Ukrainians are surprised with their success, as some say, but: does that matter?

What really matters is that they’re in a perfect position to continue exploiting this success and, right now, simply have no reason to change the aims of their operation. The reason is not only the chaos in the Russian chain-of-command (reinforced by nearly all of regiment- and brigade-officers, plus their superiors at the OSK West and OSK South, and then the GenStab and the Ministry of Defence lying in their reports), but something I’ve mentioned a day or two back: Russian headquarters are taking ‘ages’ to bring decisions; so far, they were doing nothing else but rushing ever additional units forward to ‘plug gaps’. Neither unit commanders nor their troops are trained to run mobile warfare; they are not receiving prescribed orders for how to conduct their operations, and they have no idea where and what to expect, because they do not know where are Ukrainian units they are supposed to attack. As a consequence, they are all slow to command and to move. When hit by Ukrainians they stop to report and then wait for orders. They let themselves get outflanked and then encircled while waiting for upper echelons to decide their fate. And if they are counterattacking, they are doing that on basis of obsolete intelligence, resulting in belated orders, and entirely different situation on the battlefield than at the time they were ordered to counterattack. Unsurprisingly, in six days of this operation, they have run only two successful counterattacks (both by the 810th Naval Infantry, and both only resulting in temporary ‘liberation’ of Martynovka).

‘Best news’: this is unlikely to change any time soon because Pudding lost the trust in the GenStab and the VSRF, and ordered the FSB to assume responsibility for the Russian counteroffensive in this area.

….and intelligence services simply can’t fight conventional wars. They’re not made to do so.

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Unsurprisingly, the more I chat with different contacts in Ukraine, the more my impression is growing that this is all playing perfectly into Ukrainian hands. And that because their operation is little else than a ‘Wildschweinjagd’: that’s not sexy (and I’m aware it might leave ‘bad taste’ in few mouths, considering what was going on in the same part of the world some 75 years ago), but, essentially, it’s an operation of killing as many Russian troops as possible. Destroying them by companies, battalions, and regiments.

Now, for your easier orientation regarding what was going on the last 36-48 hours, here a map:

• 82nd Airborne: this brigade is running its operations in three directions; it’s blocking the Russian garrison of Korenovo; has seized Vetrenoe, advanced on Alexandrovka on Toplino. Now, whether it took the latter place is not yet clear, but it has hit the VSRF there heavily, and if it has taken that place: the Russian garrison of Korenovo is in deep troubles. On the northern side, the 82nd secured Novaya Sorochin, Pogrebki, and Kamyshovka, followed by Semenovka. As of the evening of 11 Aug, it was attacking Generalovka, 5km south of E38.

• 103rd Territorial Defence: is, methodically, clearing villages along the border to Russia from scattered VSRF troops and the Russian Border Guards.

• 80th Airborne: this brigade continued its advance towards north, bypassing several Russian strongholds (like the one in Sheptukhovka), clashing with elements of the 810th Naval Infantry as it went. It wasn’t always successful, but it kept on pushing northwards until colliding with elements of the 11th Motor-Rifle Brigade, fresh into the area south of E38.

• 22nd Mech: this brigade has some of hardest tasks in this operation, because it had to breach the local section of the original Russian defence line, and then advance into swampy terrain, full of villages and hamlets, and intersected by a river. It is still fighting in the Bolshoe Soldatskoe area, and had to recover Marynovka at least two times from counterattacks of the 810th Naval Infantry, but: as the ‘best’ (-equipped and -trained) of involved ZSU’s units, that’s simply its job. Above all, it has meanwhile helped secure all of Sudzha.

• Finally, a mix of SSO units (Ukrainian special forces) an elements of an unknown brigade… the ‘late comers into this game’ - punched over the border in the south, secured Guevo and Plekhovo, then brought the road from Sudzha to Ulanok under their fire-control, thus forcing what’s left of the 488th Motor-Rifle Regiment, 4th Tank Regiment, and Senezh operators in this area to withdraw towards east. Early on 12 August, they might have approached Belitsa, perhaps even entered Giri (the place where the Russians have hit up to 4-5 BTR-4s with Lancets, and claim to have captured 7 of these).
  The situation in the Belitsa-Giri area as of the morning of 13 August is unclear to me. We’re going to see what comes out of this.

Ukrainian Su-27 over Sumy, returning from a combat sortie (including a deployment of JDAM or HAMMER guided bombs/missiles) over the Kursk Oblast.

….and all the while, Ukrainian ‘DRGs’ are raiding, raiding, and raiding behind the Russian lines, driving by, shooting up additional Russian troops and equipment before disappearing into the darkness…. often taking selfies like the one from which the following screen-grab is coming, showing the table at the ‘exit’ of the town of Lgov, on the E38 highway…

No doubt, such raids mean no permanent presence. And, no doubt, the ZSU has lost a number of vehicles knocked out or damaged. No doubt, especially the number of Lancets and FPV drones deployed by the Russians the last 48 hours is constantly growing (it’s another thing that over 50% of videos they’re releasing are showing misses). The VSRF is also deploying a growing number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles. But, so far, Ukrainian losses in troops remain minimal (especially for an operation of this scope and effects). In turn, they’re really smashing one VSRF unit after all. Sure, we’re not talking about ‘brigades’ or ‘divisions’ here, but the Russian losses are massive; Ukrainians have captured hundreds of vehicles, several ammunition depots, shot down 3 Ka-52s and one Mi-8, claimed at least one Su-34 etc., etc., etc. They’re destroying Russian reserves, big style - and thus preventing these from being deployed somewhere in Ukraine, where their appearance could have serious effects.

Indeed, Gerasimov is meanwhile withdrawing ever additional units from frontlines inside Ukraine and rushing them to Kursk - which is simply ‘good news’ for hard-pressed ZSU units in several sectors of the Donbas.

Unless the GenStab-U, or one of brigade-commanders makes some sort of a major mistake, the ‘Wildschweinjagd’ is working. It’s as simple as that.

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PS Since yesterday, and after defeating the 11th Motor-Rifle Brigade, the ZSU has several positions along the E38 highway - in the Lgov area.