Ukraine War, 12 April 2024
Hello everybody!
Up front: SPECIAL THANKS!
Thank you for supporting collection for the Shark UAV for the 3rd SSO.
Few answers in regards of related questions (sorry, but I really have no time to answer all the e-mails and private messages coming my way, the last weeks and months):
1.) I do not know any way of supporting this collection through providing donations in crypto currencies and/or in Pounds Sterling. Everything I’ve been informed about regarding related bank connections was posted in my original request, two days ago. This was also proven as reliable and working, over the last two months. With other words: when the money is transferred to one of accounts listed, it’s arriving where necessary and kept there until there’s enough to buy the Shark.
2.) The 3rd SSO is no ‘3rd (Azov) Assault Brigade’: these are two entirely different units.
The 3rd SSO stands for the 3rd Separate (or ‘Independent’) Special Purpose Regiment. Named after Prince Svyatoslav the Brave, this is a relatively small outfit, specialised in clandestine operations behind the enemy lines.
The 3rd Separate (or ‘Independent’) Assault Brigade is a much bigger, ‘conventional’ combat unit. It was created through the expansion of the Azov SSO (created by former Azov Battalion veterans), and is ‘special operations capable’, but not the same like the 3rd SSO.
In (massively) oversimplified terms: the 3rd SSO is ‘usually associated’ with such actions like whenever there is another HIMARS or MLRS-strike, 50 or more kilometres behind the Russian lines. The 3rd SSO is rarely fighting in ‘classic’ fashion: they’re something like ‘ghosts’ of this war, appearing wherever the Russians expect them the least (and then disappearing before the Russians can find them). For comparison (and for example), the 3rd Assault was running the successful counteroffensive to recover Klishchivka, south of Bakhmut, the last summer, and (as mentioned here) is presently defending a sector of the frontline in the Avdiivka area.
3.) Regarding results of this collection: as of this morning, we were some €/US$ 10,000 short of the target (or in other words: we’ve collected well over 50% of what’s necessary).
4.) Please mind that the troops of the 3rd SSO are busy fighting the Russian war of extermination, while I’m merely a ‘messenger’. Of course, I have checked all the details already well before announcing this collection, but: it’s regularly taking a few days to receive updates.
Of course, I’ll keep you all posted.
***
STRATEGIC
Indicating there is more sanity within its ranks than within the ranks of those ‘above’ (see: European Council, which is a body consisting of heads of state of EU-member-states), the Parliament of the EU has announced that it is going to confirm the budget of the European Council only once the Council takes care to acquire seven additional Patriot SAM-systems for Ukraine. With which we’re back to ‘No Bucks, no Buck Rogers’: at least nominally, the Council cannot function without a budget – and this is now going to happen only if the Council (which is actually in charge of the EU, but as such never directly elected by voters) takes care to bolster Ukrainian air defences (BTW, the Parliament confirmed this decision with 515 votes pro, and 62 against).
Grab yourself some popcorn and coke (if you can): this is promising to become fun to watch… Sure, the mass of this is just another round of typical babbling: after all, even if the accounts are blocked, the Council is neither short on money, nor has any kind of a problem to continue doing whatever it likes. But, at least the idea of incompetents like Macron and von der Leyen, oligarchy-sponsored-apparatchiks like Nehammer, and mafia-bosses like Fico or Orban sitting on the same table to chat about how to find alternative solutions for wasting public money, time, and Ukrainian lives appears entertaining to me…
Meanwhile, in the USA…. ‘Breaking’! It took only two years since Pudding’s all-out invasion of Ukraine for the Supreme Commander of NATO Allied Forces Europe, General Christopher Cavioli, to discover hot water.
That is: in a hearing of the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, he’s stated that now it’s the industrial production that is the key to the victory in this war.
Who would have ever thought, eh?
Thinking of it: between others, Cavioli is actually paid to recognise such patterns and draw such conclusions – and advise his political masters correspondingly - but: he’s paid to do so on time. Which, hand on heart, would’ve been back in March 2022 (if not already in November 2021). By all the incompetence of our politicians, I would’ve expected them to take two years to figure this out. That would be nothing new. But, it is new to see another confirmation for incompetence between top military commanders, too…sigh… OK, OK: I’m to blame. After all, I thought Cavioli and the likes have learned at least something from Afghanistan and Iraq. If for no other reason then because, actually, they’re not in charge of what’s going on in Ukraine. So, have it easier to blame somebody else. Instead, here I am: sitting in front of my computer, surprised he ever came to that conclusion, not to talk about mentioning it in the public…
…all of which is gong to be even more important for reasons I’m going to discuss at some other time (sorry, but can’t trouble you and myself with too much stuff on one day).
***
AIR/MISSILE WAR
Must admit, even the Russians took me by surprise. Yesterday in the morning (11 April 2024), they have successfully attacked the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant outside Kyiv. No, I wasn’t surprised they have attacked it, but: that they’ve really smashed it.
But, let me start with the details of that strike – which was quite massive. According to official Kyiv, the Russians have deployed:
- 20 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles
- 6 Kinzhal missiles
- 12 S-300 missiles
- 40 Shaheds
- 4 Kh-59 (two of which turned out to be Kh-69s).
Ukrainians claimed to have shot down 14 Kh-101/555s, 39 Shaheds, and 2 Kh-59s…. No Kinzhals and no S-300s – which is no surprise, because these two types were deployed to strike targets in the areas not protected by SAM systems that can target ballistic missiles (like MIM-104 Patriot). For comparison: one of Kh-59s deployed against a target in the Zaporizhzhya area was shot down by the PSU.
In Kharkiv, the local TPP was badly damaged and a transformer substation completely destroyed, and then a hospital in Vovchansk was destroyed. In Zaporizhzhya….not yet sure what was hit there. In Sumy, the local TPP was at least damaged - but by UMPKs, not by any of ballistic- or cruise missiles.
Also targeted (but, apparently, not hit) - by Kh-101s and Kh-555 cruise missiles - were similar objects in the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk areas.
So far, ‘everything was logical’.
However, then it turned out that the Trypilska TPP was hit by two of latest Kh-69s.
Now, sure, the Trypilska is (i.e. was) 50km outside Kyiv, and thus outside the ‘air defence bubble’ protecting the Ukrainian capital. Still, if the PSU had no means to protect such an important object in this area at this point time…? sigh… If so, then it must be critically short on stuff like MIM-104s, NASAAMs and IRIS-T… which is just another indicator for how much has the West screwed up…
Another conclusion is on hand, too (have explained this already back in February, but here you are, ‘again’): instead of targeting the distribution network to cause temporary power black-outs, the Russians are focusing on physically destroying the power plants of Ukraine. Reason: when a power plant is knocked out, the damage is lasting because such a plant is taking ‘years’ to rebuild, not just days or weeks.
AFAIK, there are… or: there were - 11 such power plants in Ukraine: 3 (and now 2) in the Kyiv area and 8 (and now 7) elsewhere. At least eight have been targeted so far, causing Kyiv to significantly increase its imports of electricity from the EU. With other words: such attacks are not only causing massive damage, but increasing the costs of war, too. Foremost: what’s the point of rebuilding power plants like this one, or sending another 500 generators to Kharkiv – if Ukraine lacks effective air defences…? They’re all just going to be destroyed, too, and that rather sooner than later…
‘BTW’, this attack came on the heels of an Iskander strike on Odesa, on 10 April, in which 5 were killed and 14 wounded; and another missile strike on Mykolaiv, on 11 April, in which at least 5 were killed - and then in addition to dozens of other air strikes and missile strikes all along the frontlines in the east and south…
For their part, Ukrainians were targeting the Kursk area, the last two nights - which makes me wonder if the Biden admin is still as dumb as to repeat its complaints about Ukrainian strikes on the Russian oil- and other sorts of industry…
Ah yes, while I’m at air warfare… during the same hearing in the US Congress, Cavioli also mentioned primary problems with training of PSU’s pilots on F-16s:
lack of English language skills;
lack of basic training by pilots in question (requiring many of them to have to start with basic training in the West), and…. (drums)
….lack of pilots.
What a surprise: the PSU can only provide pilots it has already got; it cannot draw even more pilots from existing, active units without significantly weakening these; and after two years of war, there is a shortage of pilots, then a shortage of pilots fluent in English and, obviously, even a shortage of properly trained pilots….
With other words:
a) Over the last… say… 10 years, those in charge in Kyiv have all failed to take care the PSU to train enough pilots (actually, and since I’m ‘eyebrows-deep’ into writing this one: considering ‘PSU-related news’ from back in 2021… it’s a wonder the force still has any pilots left at all);
b) Over the last… say….2 years, and by all the endless babbling about F-16s for Ukraine, everybody in charge - foremost in Kyiv - has failed to take care the PSU to start training a new group of pilots to fly Western jets (because, actually: the PSU at least has enough training facilities and aircraft to train some 12-15 youngsters at least to the ‘basic jet training’-level in this time), and
c) the fact remains (as pointed out several times already), dear Ukrainians: F-16s are, really, nothing as simple to acquire as artillery pieces or UAVs…
….with all of which I cannot but conclude: why should any politician have any kind of foresight? Any kind of visions for the future? Skills in planning?
Completely irrelevant and unnecessary, isn’t it?
Babbling at press conferences, participating in spectacular photo-shots, and cashing from diverse ‘sponsors’ is ah so very much easier and profitable.
***
BATTLE OF DONBAS
Kremina… The back and forth is continued: few days ago, Ukrainians reported to have pushed the assaulting Russians back, yesterday, the Russians claimed to have returned to positions about 1000m east of Terny.
Bakhmut… The Russians have continued pounding Chasiv Yar with UMPKs and air strikes, the last few days. Indeed, they claim to have hit some kind of a storage facility there and ‘killed hundreds of Ukrainian nationalists’. On the ground, they’re continuing their three-prong assault:
via Bohadnivka and Kalinina in the north,
along the Road 0506 into the Kanal District, and
via Ivaniske/along the Road 0504 in the south.
Indeed, yesterday, they’ve secured the western side of Ivanivske, even if not forcing the ZSU positions in the hills further west even an inch back. Additionally, and further north of Kalinina, they are pushing into Hryhorivka.
This is possible because the Russians have reinforced the 98th VDV Division and the 11th VDV Brigade by elements of the 123rd Motor-Rifle Brigade and the 106th VDV Division. Alone this is making it clear: Chasiv Yar is their ‘Schwerpunkt’, the place they want to get, regardless the cost. Otherwise they wouldn’t bunch together so much of the VDV there.
Avdiivka-Shakhtarsk… similar situation in this area. See: heavy air- and artillery strikes on the rear of the Ukrainian frontline, all the way back to Novobakhmutivka and Halytsynivka. On the ground, the Russians are grinding towards Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netailove. Pervomaiske was first reported as completely secured by the Russians, then Ukrainians recovered at least the south-western side to plant their flag on the local school building, and meanwhile the Russians are back to controlling all of the place and grinding towards Netailove, further west.
Mariinka… think, this is the only area where there are no other ‘significant news’ than, ‘continuous Russian assaults on Heorhivka, south from Pobieda and on Novomykhailivka (most of which is meanwhile under the Russian control, promarily thansk to days-long, heavy strikes by glide bombs).
SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA & KHERSON
Two days ago, Ukrainians have smashed another - though smaller - Russian assault into Robotyne, but otherwise, it’s the Russian UAVs that are currently bombing all the possible ZSU positions in this sector. There are heavy (really: heavy) Russian air strikes targeting the ZSU positions in the Urozhayne area (the place where Ukrainians made their most significant advances of the summer 2023). Also hit by glide bombs was the Vremivka, north of that sector of the frontline.
In the Krynky area, the ZSU bridgehead is holding, primarily because of the Ukrainian superiority in FPVs.
US military officers have deliberately learned absolutely nothing from Iraq or Afghanistan. Within a year or two of every colossal fuckup sponsored scholars pump out the next approved memory-hole project designed to rewrite failure as victory.
To wit, the entire Petraeus myth and legend of the Surge. It is now official history that the War in Iraq was won by throwing more bodies at the problem - every American general's favorite solution. Tried and failed in Afghanistan, but no matter. Just like after Vietnam, senior officers responsible for the mess were determined to pretend that if the politicians hadn't bound their hands victory was assured.
In reality, the US was almost defeated by the insurgency, and finally saw the plain sense in a recommendation made by a USMC captain (who was later KIA). You split the psycho wing of the insurgents that always forms from the sane people mad at their country being occupied. Give the latter autonomy and resources and let them do the police work only locals can do anyway. Don't fucking launch an air strike or kick down doors in some neighborhood every time someone takes a potshot at you.
That's the lesson to draw from russia's even stupider attempt to dominate another country. But will the Pentagon? No, because they want a forever war with China that imitates how they imagine WW2 going. They want to be able to play war of attrition with ordinary soldiers acting like robots from Command and Conquer. Most aren't much better at their jobs than orc officers.
/end rant
Written by someone who ordinary drill sergeants fresh from the sandbox were already training soldiers in basic counterinsurgency tactics while Petraeus was still pretending he had single-handedly secured Mosul.
What is even the realistic way out of this now, barring the West magically pull its head out of the sand or a hithero unseen Russian internal event that could lead to a sudden end or collapse. European contributions means some equipment and shells will continue to get into Ukraine, but how much is that enough for beyond some delaying defense with slow retreat. Thats assuming Ukraine has enough soldiers...
It's infuriating that even with a time machine I couldn't do anything to help because of incompetent our leaders are.