Wasnt Ukraine supposed to be receiving lots of artillery shells from the Czech initiative+US package+increase in domestic and European production? Is the Ukrainian command stockpiling them as a hedge because of the US elections and for potential future offensive operations, or is the amount supplied just enough to keep the current battlefield dynamics from getting worse?
The delivery is slow, because many of them has to be checked, refurbished. They are from various sources of various quality. E.g. some o them have fuses which rarely explode too early, so they need to change these fuses but there are not many of them available on the market these days. Etc.
Unfortunately, countries of the Czech initiative couldn't decide who will pay for what, while the Russians preemptively bought some of the shells in question while Europe was bogged down in bureaucracy and "discussions".
"He says that glide kits - which are mass-produced and pretty mechanically simple - are added to Soviet bombs, of which the Russians have a plentiful supply - meaning the cost per weapon can be "somewhere in the region of $20,000 to $30,000 (£15,700-£23,600)"."
Perhaps they would cost as much if manufactured in the UK. Certainly not if manufactured in Russia (indeed, I doubt they cost more than US$ 1000 to make in Russia).
One fix would be to recruit 2 people for each soldier you lose. That's what the Vietnamese and Talebans did and they won their wars.
You need to motivate those 2 people so you should exile/ jail all the oligarchs, promise a nice social network and clamp down on corruption. Any person convicted of corruption is shot on a stadium and the family pays the bullets.
I would just waste no lives with shooting. Organise them into de-mining teams, train them in de-mining, then send them to Kherson or eastern Kharkiv, to make themselves useful and pay their dues to the people.
For the Vietcong it was tunnels in the deep jungle.
For the British in WW2 it was having enough planes and fighting over home turf.
For the red army it was firstly strong winter only and afterwards allied bombing of Germany by Allies in the West, so that the Germans need to leave and the red army gained air superiority.
Which leaves you with the first option, that Ukraine is not getting delivered and can't produce themselves with the exception of those rocket drones to destroy the bases of those bombers.
It's very unfair to blame Ukranian suppliers. There will be never enough. NATO delivered hell of the weapons to Ukraine (comparitively more than USSR supplied to Vietnam). The scale of war is too big to fullfill UA needs with current capacities.
USSR delivered less than 1% percent of its tanks&jet fighters to Vietnam.
Total capacity includes B-2s, aircraft carriers, submarines, countless cargo planes, and etc.
Based on that, effective (useful) rate of "delivered capacity" is higher than Soviet in Vietnam.
Do not forget that real and nominal capacities are different (remember "drowned" Leo-2s of Spain or dozens of inoperable Bradleys that Greece refused to accept).
Of course, I bypass the principal question: why on Earth core NATO countries (mainly US&Germany) should invest in RU defeat.
"Of course, I bypass the principal question: why on Earth core NATO countries (mainly US&Germany) should invest in RU defeat." I take that to mean that when Mr Putin said back I don't care when at I don't care what conference that "the break up of the Soviet Union was some kind of catastrophe", or whatever, he is satisfied with stopping at the Eastern border of Germany instead of splitting it in half again, and so those pesky "Core NATO" countries like Germany et all should stop resisting this goal? No thanks.
No. Again, this is a war against decadence. It's simply our decadence, laziness and selfishness that is stopping us from arming Ukraine. So far Putin isn't winning this war. Again, woe to him if he starts to.
Earlier this year I said that there would be European troops in Ukraine by the end of 2024. Whether they are French, Polish or some multi-country force it is past time to consider this option. Ukraine, by most accounts...including my interpretation of this one...is exhausted and in desperate need of relief. With the introduction of North Korean troops by Russia the door has opened wide for this action. These troops should be used to relieve Ukrainian forces on the Belarus border and in the western part of Ukraine. How Article 4 is addressed will be up to the separate governments providing forces. Since military action by individual NATO members can be initiated without invoking said article my feeling is that this will be a mute point to consider. Failure to provide the necessary support now risks a sudden Ukrainian collapse. Europe will be flooded with another wave of Ukrainian refugees. The Baltics will immediately be under pressure from a resurgent Russia and Poland will become the front line with all the dangers that entails. Where is the "Winston Churchill" of the West?
Continue dreaming .... EU countries hesitate to send proper equipment, they would not sent soldiers, either. (Maybe few instructors safe in the rear at best).
If there will be eu soldiers, putin will maybe not attack, but if yes then eu has many planes f35, grippens ... which can protect sky and just this will be enough to stop ru army. No clue if it is relevant from political view but just from military.
It's not impossible that after she wins the election Kamala Harris will announce a partial conscription to meet troop shortfalls, but directly entering a war with Russia is asking a lot.
Look, there was also one going down in Zagreb, Croatia once. If there is a mistake by ground crew, a technical failure or a successfull EW attempt, they can land anywhere.
E.g if they start from Crimea heading north, just turn to the right instead of left and you end back in Russia.
Yes, again. Not sure if Syrsky is as popular as Zaluzhny was, so there shouldn’t be too much negativity. I’m sure Zelensky could be persuaded to find him a cushy spot in some nice part of the world as an ambassador.
Syrsky is a butcher, plus totally incompetent in organisation issues. At least since late 2023 brigades should be reirganized into divisions at least. OTU (territorial management) should have been liquidated as completely useless units.
Instead of above mentioned: more brigades, more generals, more units, more chaos. 75% of brigades chiefs are debils, 90% of generals - useless. For decisions requiring hours days are spent.
That is Syrsky, the most “comfortable” Chief for Ze
How did I know you were going to say that? Thanks, Tom. These guys are there to do a job, if the job isn’t being done-replace them. P.S.: 5, Lincoln replaced 5 generals, I checked ))
I think he's hesitant doing that too much lest people get the idea "hey we can keep changing head of ___ until we find a decent one" given his own situation. "We should stick by our leaders no matter how shitty" is more up his lane.
Sirsky is still good enough because he does what Zelenski tells him. Zalushny had started having funny ideas like retreating from Bakhmut and he was sacked.
Yes, and precisely that is the problem. The CinC ZSU shouldn't be doing what Zelensky tells him to do, but explain Zelensky what the ZSU can do, and then do what the ZSU can do.
I still prefer the Prussian example after their defeat against Napoleon the most. Get rid of all of them by execution sends a strong message and everyone is surprised by that example because of the Prussian war Propaganda.
I share the last article conclusion with the comparison to Syria. It has been my feeling for a while already and always worried it would come to this unless the Ukrainians were capable to gather immediate war winning Western support and capitalize on the Russian manpower crisis in late 2022. There is always more than one event, one battle which seal the fate of a war but if I had to point a turning point, that would be when the majority of the Russians forces were able to escape Kherson safely although the completion of the Surovikin Line could be chosen instead like an other user commented.
Much like Syria, yes RU will suffer a lot of casualties. Yes it will crippled some Russian communities just like it crippled Assadists communities (especially Alawites). Yes we will be able to collect a lot of graphic pict/videos + a lot of destroyed equipment and spectacular tanks cook off. Syrians rebels did too.
But the end, RU will just be able to crawl its way to victory through brute superiority in firepower and manpower. And despite the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians ranks fighters, they will be eventually overwhelmed, and their resistance will collapse. Just like it did to Syrians by late 2019. Just like it happened to the 72nd AFU Brigade in Vulhedar.
Assad has created the pattern. Putin has just been imitating the thing. Bid your time, ensure your forces have superior quantities of equipment and manpower, bet Western countries will grow bored of this affair like they always do and let attrition do its thing. Even the Wagner uprising is like Russian adaptation of the Jaber brothers half baked take over of Assad land. Yes it will destroy Russia in the process just like it destroyed Assad held Syria. But do you think tyrans like them care ? Ofc they dont. They just want to turn the world into a cemetery, put their thrones on everybody bones and boast "I won". Nothing else matter to them.
For a time it will take forever for Russians to take small villages. But it is exactly the war Putin wants. It allows him to calibrate his decrepit war industry and find solutions like the Iranians drones and the NK shells. Besides, Western war industries are even more decrepit than his and arguably even more corrupted. It is just counter-intuitive because he buys time to do so with blood, just like Ukraine does, but he does so while on the offensive and while holding firmly the initiative. Eventually it will be too much and Ukrainian resistance will suffer a systemic collapse.
The only way for Ukraine to avoid defeat would be fundamental reforms within its institution, total mobilization and managing to truly rival RU war production. A great endeavour. Meanwhile Zelensky is focused solely on PR and international tour to beg a few more scraps along PR victory. Like discussing who knows what with the Pope right now. In this too, he reminds me the [less capables] Syrians groups who focused solely on trying to get external support they were never going to get rather than focus on what could and needed to be done in the homefront.
European governments never meant to contrast putin. Old nato generals did, cause its their mission, but european executive powers envision their respective countries like hungary style autocracies. Cheap gas is too good for the oligarchs that pay for their electoral campaigns, plus those who sail on big yacths in sardinia are tired of rule of law and social democracies. There is no conflict between our governemnts and russia and, if russia invades eastern europe rich fat greasy oligarchs and their politician minions will cheer from the eu disintegration that will follow.
I’m letting myself be somewhat cheered by your last paragraph. Also hoping that your brief reference to sanctions’ not being such a complete failure could bear some expansion. On the economic side Russia has 9% inflation, 19% interest rates and what we might hope is a distinctly weakening currency £/ruble now 125, having reached 130 in the week now ending. The Americans are saying that the rate of military losses has become even higher. They just can’t stand this indefinitely and there’s a lot of Ukraine to go
Hi Tom ! Do you know who is commanding the Russian forces in Kursk ? The offensive from Korenovo towards Novoivanovka looks like a textbook maneuver against an enemy beachhead/bridgehead or bulge. That's not something FSB guys are trained how to do.
There is no new strategy and this has nothing to do with the ZSU. I was talking about something else, the characteristics of an offensive against an enemy bulge or bridgehead.
It is nothing special to concentrate certain numbers of motorized units and to throw them into hell. Dozens were lost within hours. ZSU were completely cought by surprise… again… Decision taking was too long. That is despite of that ZSU field scouts are real gods. Commandment is partially incompetent, number of units - too big.
In other conditions this assault would have been smashed completely
If the attack was successful or not is a totally different issue. If you look carefully on a map, you will see they attacked diagonally. When dealing with a beachhead/bridgehead or bulge, you never attack head on, you just put a "lid" on the head and then attack diagonally, on the shoulders of the bulge. Why diagonally ? Because your main purpose is to drive as deep as possible and as fast as possible, so you engage the enemy's reserves, in the same time intercepting the logistics routs. The main idea is to force the enemy to deploy it's reserves prematurely and fight you with a "overthrown front line". Somebody from the Ministry of Defense planned it, this is beyond FSB skillset.
The expected and accepted casualties rate, per day of hard fighting, is 4%. So, of course dozens were lost.
Yup, this is how you need to do it, always hit the shoulders, not the head. And always diagonally. The units that started at the tip of your penetration will move and secure the flanks, once their offensive potential is done. Other units replace them in the tip and those themselves move to the flanks after their potential is done. And so on and so on. Also, South of the main effort, a secondary one should start, with that exact purpose, to secure your flank (which they also did, towards Darino and Nikolayevo-Darino). If more successful than expected, that secondary effort could also start getting some more "love" .
FSB never commanded RU army (not counting borderguards) in Kursk region. FSB set "counterterrorist operation mode" which implies enhanced inner control and free hand to do forced evacuation (if necessary), and etc. Of course, it has nothing in common with waging the war at front. Everything at front is guided by army generals.
It was so funny to read about FSB commanding military actions. If even profound users post such things, what willl an ordinary reader think. I strongly suggest cautiously use UA propaganda sources (which are doing their job great, I must admit) otherwise one will still believe that Russians are stealing refrigirators for chips to make missiles, losing 2 thousand soldiers captured at Kursk, deliberately targeting hospitals, having their economy ruined, losing 1 k of personnel per day and similar fictional facts.
I remember reading a while ago that FSB is in charge of the military operations in Kursk, but I was skeptical from the beginning because they do not have the skillset, training or knowledge to conduct military operations of any kind. Not even GRU can do it. Although I would not call it a counterterrorist operation, I think that FSB is doing exactly what you described, nothing more. They do have some former Army officers in their ranks but that's not enough.
Dear Tom, to be honest I do not understand this perspective. You knew and I knew that this autumn would be an all out ru effort. I was expecting a significantly worse situation. And I was expecting, that after preparations some major reserve would be thrown in action. But considering timing, I am almost sure this is it, nothing spectacular is happenning this year. And everyone knew that West would not hold to its promises.
And considering indeed all the blunders in terms of organisation and sov-style command, it is all miracle.
So if nothing major happens in the next 10 days, that is it.
Sorry, can't help it: only recall the 'coolest & best general' of all the times, 'promising' a 'crisis in May-June, but then it's going to get much better'...
Foremost, I'm fed up of both zombie idiots and then the local 'leaders' screwing up. Have seen them doing exactly the same things in Libya, then in Syria. Exactly the same screw-up. And enough is enough.
But then, it is important to keep a perspective. For example, how after autumn offensive 2022, it all came to this. What role Wagner forces played, what was their task. How painful was the whole campaign of losing Soledar and Bahmut, and mauling a few UA brigades in the process, that are probably still have not fully recovered from that.
How stupid was the summer offensive while it was playing straight into the hands of ru planners, continuing to scramble resources for offensive. Basically giving them extra 4 months for the 6 they had already.
And when the autumn offensive started in October 2023, it was planned to continue at least to December 2024.
This year ru action was/is definitely planned according to political calendar -- EU and US elections.
And sure ru planners are now probably gathering another 200-300K extra people to grow army for the next offensive. And most probably a mech component. But that one is unlikely to happen till spring/summer 2025.
So there is a fine line, which were not present in Syria or Libya, once this fine line is done, UA is done very quickly, there would not be years of slow burning process. But perspective is that it is not yet done, and whether it will be, we are yet to see.
The point is that Pudding 'can afford' fighting a propaganda war. He's put all of his eggs into the basket of destroying Ukraine: his own future, all the money of the Russian Federation, millions of its citizens... indeed: the future of the country. And yet, he can afford that.
Ukraine can't. And that's where its situation is becoming absurd.
The country is facing a war of extermination (should there be any doubts, talk to people who survived and escaped the Russian occupation), BUT:
- there is no general mobilisation of the population;
- there is no general mobilisation of the economy;
- there is unemployment (figures are unclear, but this is at between 9% and 14%)....
This is simply insane. Ukraine should've mobilised not only all of its men, but also as many women as it only can. And its defence sector should be running at 110-150% of its capacity (which in turn means there should be no unemployment).
Instead, its government is daydreaming about impressing zombie idiots in 'the West' with show-operations, and expects them to pay and arm with all force?
...and there is still no extra-taxation of the super-rich (i.e. oligarchy). Just for comparison: the USA were able to win the WWII and rebuild half the World afterwards by taxating its corporations with 90%. That way, the money was constantly in circulation. Ukraine is doing nothing even distantly similar: instead, it is faithfully following in the Western fashion of taxating the middle class...
So, sorry but: if Ukraine - i.e. its government - is not taking the situation seriously enough, but is fighting this war 'Western style': then why should 'the West' do anything else but see to extract as much profit (but little else)?
Regarding mobilisation in Ukraine, I can tell you from first hand, why this is the case. There is no such thing like a bureaucracy in place as there is in Europe, where everyone is registered. That doesn't exist. You have your two passports for identification and that's it.
The government is incapable of finding the unemployed to push them into service. The only registration that you got is official jobs. There they find people. But most of jobs like taxi drivers, waiters, cooks - so the entire service sector, is unregistered to save on taxes. It is like in Austria for events on the weekend, but on a total scale there.
So they grab people on the street and push them into service. That is why my brother in law is in Austria now since June as he has a very severe spine degradation and simply can't serve.
of course I am no war expert at all, so maybe that’s why I truly cannot understand how mobilizing the whole male population while lacking air defense and other weaponry and simply money to sustain such huge army can save Ukraine. We are constantly seeing reports about artillery shells hunger etc. So which exactly purpose will all those troops serve?
If these idiots in Kyiv do not find some solution to fight the Russian aviation and find and destroy the Iskanders, then the war will be lost. Armies simply will not remain, and the rest of the population will simply be demoralized. It is practically already demoralized, because no one wants to serve under the command of these degenerates.
BTW, the video of the recent strike of Iskander at Patriot battery showed two SAMs launched to the zero gain. It gives perfect illustration of credibility of UA claims of Iskanders, Kinzhals and Zirkons (!!!) downed.
As per "idiots in Kiev", "degenerates", and etc., I would not go to such extremes. The opposite side may have even higher percentage of idiots, still the reasons for the recent UA failures are of different nature.
He created chaos in mobilization, he turns a blind eye to corruption, he travels to countries with zero results. Days were spent to extract PVL but nothing new. The Kursk operation showed that there is a traitor. A month has passed, silence. Zelensky does not want Ukraine to survive, he wants to save the spies.
(it's an automaticly translation, because I have no time to do it in my mind)
He did at least a few things 'great'. For example: he didn't run when everybody told him to run.
But, that's 2,5 years ago. As a pres right now, and trying to fight PR-battles for the purpose of impressing zombie idiots in the West: that's making him the person that's simply wrong in place. This war now needs a pres that understands the limitations of the ZSU. And a CinC ZSU who cares for his troops, too.
It looks to me that he thinks that he only needs to keep doing the same things he was praised for before. He gets visibly frustrated when asked about corrupted people around him, like he didn't even expect the questions to arise. "Only ask me about things we would write in my speeches"
You are completely wright. In February and March TRO units in Chernihiv and Sumy do the job. Zelensky lasts in Kiev to ruin Ukraime. But the Ukrainian people was afraid of Zelensky. Tom, you are wright in general, but you are wrong in details. It's upset completely.
Is this the defense of the country? It was that time when the head CIA came to Kyiv before invasion.Thousands of people defend the country without the government authority.
1.) Sirsky brought the 'promise' of 'discipline'. This discipline is useless, because due to his micromanagement and mishandling of multiple Brigade COs, he now can't depend upon anybody.
2.) Nope.
...which is why he needs to go (or to quit on his own).
If it's about 67th Mech, where most of Right Sector militia was organised in and they had their own Right Sector commander, wasn't it Sirsky that disbanded them after their collapse before Chasiv Yar? There was an additional scandal with them abusing conscrpits sent to their units and sending them to pointless assaults, as I remember.
In contrast, Zaluzhny let them operate as they pleased, as with other formations. But, well, that seems roughly to be the extent and let's say the topline of what could be expected of Sirsky contributions from General Staff level. He did preside over the collapse of Vovcha line after the fall of Avdiivka, the loss of Vuhledar, and there's growing problems on the line before Kupiansk.
On the other hand, the initial assault into Kursk was done competently, even though it ended short of enabling longterm success there. I know there's the controversy if he was indeed responsible for the planning of the Kharkiv counteroffensive, but the Kursk incursion reflected some of the same flair. Maybe he would be a competent corps commander, with all his problems of micromanaging, but surely he's over his head as Commander-in-Chief.
Wasnt Ukraine supposed to be receiving lots of artillery shells from the Czech initiative+US package+increase in domestic and European production? Is the Ukrainian command stockpiling them as a hedge because of the US elections and for potential future offensive operations, or is the amount supplied just enough to keep the current battlefield dynamics from getting worse?
Oh yes, of course it was. 'Millions'.
....just that then nobody paid for these, so merely some 100,000 or so were ver delivered...
Never mind. No reason to be worried, frustrated by zombie idiots, or whatever... 🙄
The delivery is slow, because many of them has to be checked, refurbished. They are from various sources of various quality. E.g. some o them have fuses which rarely explode too early, so they need to change these fuses but there are not many of them available on the market these days. Etc.
They were simply not paid. They were too cheap, the EU defence sector complained and the governments that pledged they're going to pay, didn't pay.
Unfortunately, countries of the Czech initiative couldn't decide who will pay for what, while the Russians preemptively bought some of the shells in question while Europe was bogged down in bureaucracy and "discussions".
What is the counter to the Russian glide bombs?
Right now, prayer and lots of it.
I guess 15+ Patriot batteries (on the move to not to be hit easily) with permanent supply of SAM missiles?
It's necessary to hit bombers carrying bombs or their bases. But Ukraine does not have long rande air-to-air missiles for various excuses (reasons).
So basically, as of now and near future... no realistic counter...
Can glide bombs be spotted in decent time? are they visible on radar? how fast do they actually drop?
would it be possible to invent/develop a sort of cheap interceptor drone? would it be able to interdict and hit the glide bombs?
Yes, they can. Yes, they are. And yes, it should be possible to develop an air defence system for them.
That's just not happening.
Do we know approx. how much a glide bomb cost? like bomb + glide kit?
Ok. just googled myself.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko
"He says that glide kits - which are mass-produced and pretty mechanically simple - are added to Soviet bombs, of which the Russians have a plentiful supply - meaning the cost per weapon can be "somewhere in the region of $20,000 to $30,000 (£15,700-£23,600)"."
Perhaps they would cost as much if manufactured in the UK. Certainly not if manufactured in Russia (indeed, I doubt they cost more than US$ 1000 to make in Russia).
Found a few estimates:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZknurbdEkE
mentions "10s of thousinds of dollars", and here: https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-russian-glide-bombs-pose-increasing-threat/video-69042110 it states:
"The whole thing costs less than $20,000."
It's still a ton of explosives and the metal shell and logistics. May be above $5K.
One fix would be to recruit 2 people for each soldier you lose. That's what the Vietnamese and Talebans did and they won their wars.
You need to motivate those 2 people so you should exile/ jail all the oligarchs, promise a nice social network and clamp down on corruption. Any person convicted of corruption is shot on a stadium and the family pays the bullets.
x2
I would just waste no lives with shooting. Organise them into de-mining teams, train them in de-mining, then send them to Kherson or eastern Kharkiv, to make themselves useful and pay their dues to the people.
The counter to glide bombs is air defence.
The means to improve air defence is primarily from foreign deliveries.
To increase foreign deliveries requires diplomacy.
Diplomacy is Zelensky’s task, and he has been working hard at it.
Perhaps Ukraine could also source air defence from countries outside the west?
Well in NATO that is air superiority.
For the Taliban it was caves in the mountains.
For the Vietcong it was tunnels in the deep jungle.
For the British in WW2 it was having enough planes and fighting over home turf.
For the red army it was firstly strong winter only and afterwards allied bombing of Germany by Allies in the West, so that the Germans need to leave and the red army gained air superiority.
Which leaves you with the first option, that Ukraine is not getting delivered and can't produce themselves with the exception of those rocket drones to destroy the bases of those bombers.
Sobering update, thanks Tom
Thanks for the update Tom. So frustrating to hear that Ukraine isn't getting the ammunition and equipment that has been "promised".
It's very unfair to blame Ukranian suppliers. There will be never enough. NATO delivered hell of the weapons to Ukraine (comparitively more than USSR supplied to Vietnam). The scale of war is too big to fullfill UA needs with current capacities.
NATO delivered 0.02% of its capacity.
That much about 'hell of the weapons' delivered...
USSR delivered less than 1% percent of its tanks&jet fighters to Vietnam.
Total capacity includes B-2s, aircraft carriers, submarines, countless cargo planes, and etc.
Based on that, effective (useful) rate of "delivered capacity" is higher than Soviet in Vietnam.
Do not forget that real and nominal capacities are different (remember "drowned" Leo-2s of Spain or dozens of inoperable Bradleys that Greece refused to accept).
Of course, I bypass the principal question: why on Earth core NATO countries (mainly US&Germany) should invest in RU defeat.
Why would anyone want Russia defeated? I guess we will never know... /s
"Of course, I bypass the principal question: why on Earth core NATO countries (mainly US&Germany) should invest in RU defeat." I take that to mean that when Mr Putin said back I don't care when at I don't care what conference that "the break up of the Soviet Union was some kind of catastrophe", or whatever, he is satisfied with stopping at the Eastern border of Germany instead of splitting it in half again, and so those pesky "Core NATO" countries like Germany et all should stop resisting this goal? No thanks.
No. Again, this is a war against decadence. It's simply our decadence, laziness and selfishness that is stopping us from arming Ukraine. So far Putin isn't winning this war. Again, woe to him if he starts to.
Earlier this year I said that there would be European troops in Ukraine by the end of 2024. Whether they are French, Polish or some multi-country force it is past time to consider this option. Ukraine, by most accounts...including my interpretation of this one...is exhausted and in desperate need of relief. With the introduction of North Korean troops by Russia the door has opened wide for this action. These troops should be used to relieve Ukrainian forces on the Belarus border and in the western part of Ukraine. How Article 4 is addressed will be up to the separate governments providing forces. Since military action by individual NATO members can be initiated without invoking said article my feeling is that this will be a mute point to consider. Failure to provide the necessary support now risks a sudden Ukrainian collapse. Europe will be flooded with another wave of Ukrainian refugees. The Baltics will immediately be under pressure from a resurgent Russia and Poland will become the front line with all the dangers that entails. Where is the "Winston Churchill" of the West?
Continue dreaming .... EU countries hesitate to send proper equipment, they would not sent soldiers, either. (Maybe few instructors safe in the rear at best).
With long range ballistic missiles, there's no "safe rear" anymore
Pointless to send troops without having the weapons and ammunition to support them.
If there will be eu soldiers, putin will maybe not attack, but if yes then eu has many planes f35, grippens ... which can protect sky and just this will be enough to stop ru army. No clue if it is relevant from political view but just from military.
They need enough AD to protect them and munitions for them to fire. If not also pointless. In Libya they ran out in like 2 weeks.
There will be none, at least not in combat function, for the same reason the EU-part of NATO is not sending any arms and ammo.
Instructors: yes, sure. Just like they're already there.
It's not impossible that after she wins the election Kamala Harris will announce a partial conscription to meet troop shortfalls, but directly entering a war with Russia is asking a lot.
Why are talking about this prime example of a toxic old white male?
"two returned to Russia"
I did not know that was a thing. I thought Shaheds were one-way. Or have I finally fallen into the sarcasm trap?
GPS spoofing makes them lose their way, some may fly back
…or these are equipped with recon cams or data collection tools
Look, there was also one going down in Zagreb, Croatia once. If there is a mistake by ground crew, a technical failure or a successfull EW attempt, they can land anywhere.
E.g if they start from Crimea heading north, just turn to the right instead of left and you end back in Russia.
Thanks, Tom. Do you think it’s time to replace head of GenShtab-U?
Again?
Yes, again. Not sure if Syrsky is as popular as Zaluzhny was, so there shouldn’t be too much negativity. I’m sure Zelensky could be persuaded to find him a cushy spot in some nice part of the world as an ambassador.
Syrsky is a butcher, plus totally incompetent in organisation issues. At least since late 2023 brigades should be reirganized into divisions at least. OTU (territorial management) should have been liquidated as completely useless units.
Instead of above mentioned: more brigades, more generals, more units, more chaos. 75% of brigades chiefs are debils, 90% of generals - useless. For decisions requiring hours days are spent.
That is Syrsky, the most “comfortable” Chief for Ze
Yes, and then keep on replacing it until the 'right one' is found.
(Should there be any doubts: check how many COs of the US Army were replaced by Lincoln - and that within 3 years.)
How did I know you were going to say that? Thanks, Tom. These guys are there to do a job, if the job isn’t being done-replace them. P.S.: 5, Lincoln replaced 5 generals, I checked ))
I think he's hesitant doing that too much lest people get the idea "hey we can keep changing head of ___ until we find a decent one" given his own situation. "We should stick by our leaders no matter how shitty" is more up his lane.
Sirsky is still good enough because he does what Zelenski tells him. Zalushny had started having funny ideas like retreating from Bakhmut and he was sacked.
Yes, and precisely that is the problem. The CinC ZSU shouldn't be doing what Zelensky tells him to do, but explain Zelensky what the ZSU can do, and then do what the ZSU can do.
I still prefer the Prussian example after their defeat against Napoleon the most. Get rid of all of them by execution sends a strong message and everyone is surprised by that example because of the Prussian war Propaganda.
I share the last article conclusion with the comparison to Syria. It has been my feeling for a while already and always worried it would come to this unless the Ukrainians were capable to gather immediate war winning Western support and capitalize on the Russian manpower crisis in late 2022. There is always more than one event, one battle which seal the fate of a war but if I had to point a turning point, that would be when the majority of the Russians forces were able to escape Kherson safely although the completion of the Surovikin Line could be chosen instead like an other user commented.
Much like Syria, yes RU will suffer a lot of casualties. Yes it will crippled some Russian communities just like it crippled Assadists communities (especially Alawites). Yes we will be able to collect a lot of graphic pict/videos + a lot of destroyed equipment and spectacular tanks cook off. Syrians rebels did too.
But the end, RU will just be able to crawl its way to victory through brute superiority in firepower and manpower. And despite the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians ranks fighters, they will be eventually overwhelmed, and their resistance will collapse. Just like it did to Syrians by late 2019. Just like it happened to the 72nd AFU Brigade in Vulhedar.
Assad has created the pattern. Putin has just been imitating the thing. Bid your time, ensure your forces have superior quantities of equipment and manpower, bet Western countries will grow bored of this affair like they always do and let attrition do its thing. Even the Wagner uprising is like Russian adaptation of the Jaber brothers half baked take over of Assad land. Yes it will destroy Russia in the process just like it destroyed Assad held Syria. But do you think tyrans like them care ? Ofc they dont. They just want to turn the world into a cemetery, put their thrones on everybody bones and boast "I won". Nothing else matter to them.
For a time it will take forever for Russians to take small villages. But it is exactly the war Putin wants. It allows him to calibrate his decrepit war industry and find solutions like the Iranians drones and the NK shells. Besides, Western war industries are even more decrepit than his and arguably even more corrupted. It is just counter-intuitive because he buys time to do so with blood, just like Ukraine does, but he does so while on the offensive and while holding firmly the initiative. Eventually it will be too much and Ukrainian resistance will suffer a systemic collapse.
The only way for Ukraine to avoid defeat would be fundamental reforms within its institution, total mobilization and managing to truly rival RU war production. A great endeavour. Meanwhile Zelensky is focused solely on PR and international tour to beg a few more scraps along PR victory. Like discussing who knows what with the Pope right now. In this too, he reminds me the [less capables] Syrians groups who focused solely on trying to get external support they were never going to get rather than focus on what could and needed to be done in the homefront.
European governments never meant to contrast putin. Old nato generals did, cause its their mission, but european executive powers envision their respective countries like hungary style autocracies. Cheap gas is too good for the oligarchs that pay for their electoral campaigns, plus those who sail on big yacths in sardinia are tired of rule of law and social democracies. There is no conflict between our governemnts and russia and, if russia invades eastern europe rich fat greasy oligarchs and their politician minions will cheer from the eu disintegration that will follow.
I’m letting myself be somewhat cheered by your last paragraph. Also hoping that your brief reference to sanctions’ not being such a complete failure could bear some expansion. On the economic side Russia has 9% inflation, 19% interest rates and what we might hope is a distinctly weakening currency £/ruble now 125, having reached 130 in the week now ending. The Americans are saying that the rate of military losses has become even higher. They just can’t stand this indefinitely and there’s a lot of Ukraine to go
Look at inflation rates in Turkey. Russia is kindergarten in comparison and Turkey is still standing, though without a war of course.
Hi Tom ! Do you know who is commanding the Russian forces in Kursk ? The offensive from Korenovo towards Novoivanovka looks like a textbook maneuver against an enemy beachhead/bridgehead or bulge. That's not something FSB guys are trained how to do.
Thats ZSU again who fcked up there, not something about GS RU new strategy. Basic and same mistakes again and again.
General management is still by FSB gens
There is no new strategy and this has nothing to do with the ZSU. I was talking about something else, the characteristics of an offensive against an enemy bulge or bridgehead.
It is nothing special to concentrate certain numbers of motorized units and to throw them into hell. Dozens were lost within hours. ZSU were completely cought by surprise… again… Decision taking was too long. That is despite of that ZSU field scouts are real gods. Commandment is partially incompetent, number of units - too big.
In other conditions this assault would have been smashed completely
If the attack was successful or not is a totally different issue. If you look carefully on a map, you will see they attacked diagonally. When dealing with a beachhead/bridgehead or bulge, you never attack head on, you just put a "lid" on the head and then attack diagonally, on the shoulders of the bulge. Why diagonally ? Because your main purpose is to drive as deep as possible and as fast as possible, so you engage the enemy's reserves, in the same time intercepting the logistics routs. The main idea is to force the enemy to deploy it's reserves prematurely and fight you with a "overthrown front line". Somebody from the Ministry of Defense planned it, this is beyond FSB skillset.
The expected and accepted casualties rate, per day of hard fighting, is 4%. So, of course dozens were lost.
https://t.me/stanislav_osman/7317
Take a look at this scheme: is it real clever to hit a bulge parallel to UA border? Keeping in mind ZSU tries to hit offensing RU units from the rear
Yup, this is how you need to do it, always hit the shoulders, not the head. And always diagonally. The units that started at the tip of your penetration will move and secure the flanks, once their offensive potential is done. Other units replace them in the tip and those themselves move to the flanks after their potential is done. And so on and so on. Also, South of the main effort, a secondary one should start, with that exact purpose, to secure your flank (which they also did, towards Darino and Nikolayevo-Darino). If more successful than expected, that secondary effort could also start getting some more "love" .
It's an FSB general. Have mentioned him in 2-3 reports, back in August.
... so, me thinks, no surprise for a 'texbok manoeuvre'.
They do have some former Defense Ministry generals and other officers in their ranks.
Lt. General Dyumin ? Well, he is exactly that, former GRU and Chief of Staff for the ground forces but a electronics guy at heart.
FSB never commanded RU army (not counting borderguards) in Kursk region. FSB set "counterterrorist operation mode" which implies enhanced inner control and free hand to do forced evacuation (if necessary), and etc. Of course, it has nothing in common with waging the war at front. Everything at front is guided by army generals.
It was so funny to read about FSB commanding military actions. If even profound users post such things, what willl an ordinary reader think. I strongly suggest cautiously use UA propaganda sources (which are doing their job great, I must admit) otherwise one will still believe that Russians are stealing refrigirators for chips to make missiles, losing 2 thousand soldiers captured at Kursk, deliberately targeting hospitals, having their economy ruined, losing 1 k of personnel per day and similar fictional facts.
I remember reading a while ago that FSB is in charge of the military operations in Kursk, but I was skeptical from the beginning because they do not have the skillset, training or knowledge to conduct military operations of any kind. Not even GRU can do it. Although I would not call it a counterterrorist operation, I think that FSB is doing exactly what you described, nothing more. They do have some former Army officers in their ranks but that's not enough.
"Although I would not call it a counterterrorist operation"
Of course not, but there's an official rhetoric. That way it sounds more solid and alarming.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/11/putin-poruchil-glave-fsb-bortnikovu-vmesto-gerasimova-rukovodit-operatsiei-protiv-vsu-vkurskoi-oblasti-a139147
https://abireg.ru/newsitem/103691/
Dear Tom, to be honest I do not understand this perspective. You knew and I knew that this autumn would be an all out ru effort. I was expecting a significantly worse situation. And I was expecting, that after preparations some major reserve would be thrown in action. But considering timing, I am almost sure this is it, nothing spectacular is happenning this year. And everyone knew that West would not hold to its promises.
And considering indeed all the blunders in terms of organisation and sov-style command, it is all miracle.
So if nothing major happens in the next 10 days, that is it.
Sorry, can't help it: only recall the 'coolest & best general' of all the times, 'promising' a 'crisis in May-June, but then it's going to get much better'...
Foremost, I'm fed up of both zombie idiots and then the local 'leaders' screwing up. Have seen them doing exactly the same things in Libya, then in Syria. Exactly the same screw-up. And enough is enough.
Sigh... okay, sure enough is enough.
But then, it is important to keep a perspective. For example, how after autumn offensive 2022, it all came to this. What role Wagner forces played, what was their task. How painful was the whole campaign of losing Soledar and Bahmut, and mauling a few UA brigades in the process, that are probably still have not fully recovered from that.
How stupid was the summer offensive while it was playing straight into the hands of ru planners, continuing to scramble resources for offensive. Basically giving them extra 4 months for the 6 they had already.
And when the autumn offensive started in October 2023, it was planned to continue at least to December 2024.
This year ru action was/is definitely planned according to political calendar -- EU and US elections.
And sure ru planners are now probably gathering another 200-300K extra people to grow army for the next offensive. And most probably a mech component. But that one is unlikely to happen till spring/summer 2025.
So there is a fine line, which were not present in Syria or Libya, once this fine line is done, UA is done very quickly, there would not be years of slow burning process. But perspective is that it is not yet done, and whether it will be, we are yet to see.
The point is that Pudding 'can afford' fighting a propaganda war. He's put all of his eggs into the basket of destroying Ukraine: his own future, all the money of the Russian Federation, millions of its citizens... indeed: the future of the country. And yet, he can afford that.
Ukraine can't. And that's where its situation is becoming absurd.
The country is facing a war of extermination (should there be any doubts, talk to people who survived and escaped the Russian occupation), BUT:
- there is no general mobilisation of the population;
- there is no general mobilisation of the economy;
- there is unemployment (figures are unclear, but this is at between 9% and 14%)....
This is simply insane. Ukraine should've mobilised not only all of its men, but also as many women as it only can. And its defence sector should be running at 110-150% of its capacity (which in turn means there should be no unemployment).
Instead, its government is daydreaming about impressing zombie idiots in 'the West' with show-operations, and expects them to pay and arm with all force?
...and there is still no extra-taxation of the super-rich (i.e. oligarchy). Just for comparison: the USA were able to win the WWII and rebuild half the World afterwards by taxating its corporations with 90%. That way, the money was constantly in circulation. Ukraine is doing nothing even distantly similar: instead, it is faithfully following in the Western fashion of taxating the middle class...
So, sorry but: if Ukraine - i.e. its government - is not taking the situation seriously enough, but is fighting this war 'Western style': then why should 'the West' do anything else but see to extract as much profit (but little else)?
Regarding mobilisation in Ukraine, I can tell you from first hand, why this is the case. There is no such thing like a bureaucracy in place as there is in Europe, where everyone is registered. That doesn't exist. You have your two passports for identification and that's it.
The government is incapable of finding the unemployed to push them into service. The only registration that you got is official jobs. There they find people. But most of jobs like taxi drivers, waiters, cooks - so the entire service sector, is unregistered to save on taxes. It is like in Austria for events on the weekend, but on a total scale there.
So they grab people on the street and push them into service. That is why my brother in law is in Austria now since June as he has a very severe spine degradation and simply can't serve.
of course I am no war expert at all, so maybe that’s why I truly cannot understand how mobilizing the whole male population while lacking air defense and other weaponry and simply money to sustain such huge army can save Ukraine. We are constantly seeing reports about artillery shells hunger etc. So which exactly purpose will all those troops serve?
russian style attacks?
Even if they mobilised every able man and woman in Ukraine, it seems that desertion would counterbalance the troop generation.
Without air support and equipment and training, it's a miracle that Ukrainian troops are still persevering like that
If these idiots in Kyiv do not find some solution to fight the Russian aviation and find and destroy the Iskanders, then the war will be lost. Armies simply will not remain, and the rest of the population will simply be demoralized. It is practically already demoralized, because no one wants to serve under the command of these degenerates.
More Iskanders are coming:
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/10/11/russia-on-track-to-launch-100-ballistic-missiles-per-month/
BTW, the video of the recent strike of Iskander at Patriot battery showed two SAMs launched to the zero gain. It gives perfect illustration of credibility of UA claims of Iskanders, Kinzhals and Zirkons (!!!) downed.
As per "idiots in Kiev", "degenerates", and etc., I would not go to such extremes. The opposite side may have even higher percentage of idiots, still the reasons for the recent UA failures are of different nature.
> two SAMs launched to the zero gain
How many incoming targets were there? Making bold statements based on fuck all as usual.
Sadly the tone of reports has become even more depressing, and with no replacement air defences it's hard to see how things might improve.
Zelensky is deliberately leading Ukraine to destruction.
He created chaos in mobilization, he turns a blind eye to corruption, he travels to countries with zero results. Days were spent to extract PVL but nothing new. The Kursk operation showed that there is a traitor. A month has passed, silence. Zelensky does not want Ukraine to survive, he wants to save the spies.
(it's an automaticly translation, because I have no time to do it in my mind)
He did at least a few things 'great'. For example: he didn't run when everybody told him to run.
But, that's 2,5 years ago. As a pres right now, and trying to fight PR-battles for the purpose of impressing zombie idiots in the West: that's making him the person that's simply wrong in place. This war now needs a pres that understands the limitations of the ZSU. And a CinC ZSU who cares for his troops, too.
It looks to me that he thinks that he only needs to keep doing the same things he was praised for before. He gets visibly frustrated when asked about corrupted people around him, like he didn't even expect the questions to arise. "Only ask me about things we would write in my speeches"
You are completely wright. In February and March TRO units in Chernihiv and Sumy do the job. Zelensky lasts in Kiev to ruin Ukraime. But the Ukrainian people was afraid of Zelensky. Tom, you are wright in general, but you are wrong in details. It's upset completely.
It's my personal opinion.
Is this the defense of the country? It was that time when the head CIA came to Kyiv before invasion.Thousands of people defend the country without the government authority.
Ok, if I'm wrong Zelensly find a spy. If Zelensky works for the Ukrainian people he will defend them and do everything to prevent attacks in future.
Quite a depressing read, I have to admit...
No artillery shells, too slow delivery of jets, not even replacing losses in tanks. And still not giving permission to hit inside Russian territory.
What's not to like?
Thanks Tom, I have two questions for you:
1. What has improved in the ZSU since Zaluzhny was dismissed? (I only mean the operational/strategic level that the ZSU has control of)
2. Has there been any evidence that the current Genstab-u will improve in a significant manner?
1.) Sirsky brought the 'promise' of 'discipline'. This discipline is useless, because due to his micromanagement and mishandling of multiple Brigade COs, he now can't depend upon anybody.
2.) Nope.
...which is why he needs to go (or to quit on his own).
Didn't he bring some of this right wing militia BS into order?
That was done already under Zaluzhny (indeed, in some cases: a year before Syrsky took over).
If it's about 67th Mech, where most of Right Sector militia was organised in and they had their own Right Sector commander, wasn't it Sirsky that disbanded them after their collapse before Chasiv Yar? There was an additional scandal with them abusing conscrpits sent to their units and sending them to pointless assaults, as I remember.
In contrast, Zaluzhny let them operate as they pleased, as with other formations. But, well, that seems roughly to be the extent and let's say the topline of what could be expected of Sirsky contributions from General Staff level. He did preside over the collapse of Vovcha line after the fall of Avdiivka, the loss of Vuhledar, and there's growing problems on the line before Kupiansk.
On the other hand, the initial assault into Kursk was done competently, even though it ended short of enabling longterm success there. I know there's the controversy if he was indeed responsible for the planning of the Kharkiv counteroffensive, but the Kursk incursion reflected some of the same flair. Maybe he would be a competent corps commander, with all his problems of micromanaging, but surely he's over his head as Commander-in-Chief.
Yup, the 67th and, I think, the 46th, too.