Ukraine War, 11 October 2024
Hello everybody!
The war in Ukraine is back to its ‘usual situation’. See: the Russians are losing troops and vehicles ‘like crazy’, but advancing; Ukrainians have no air defences nor artillery shells, and withdrawing.
But hey: everything is super if one just looks at the burning oil tanks in Feodosia…
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AIR/MISSILE WAR
On 8 October, Kharkiv went through another day of bombs. The city was hit by UMPKs and at least two BM-30s. Two civilians killed, 31 injured… Most of bombs have hit the northern suburbs named Pivnichna Saltivka: only big apartment houses there, classic Russian targets nowadays - but the PSU couldn’t do anything to stop this.
Kherson is savaged by Russian FPV- and glide-bomb-strikes. There’s hardly a part of the city not targeted by them, the last few days. Additional casualties between civilians were reported from people stepping on mines… Almost the same is valid for Nikopol and Orikhiv.
Yesterday in the morning, Poltava AB was hit by three Iskander or NK-23 ballistic missiles. This morning, the Russians streamed 66 Shaheds over Ukraine: 29 were claimed shot down, 31 decoyed by electronic warfare, two returned to Russia…
….and yes, fuel tanks in Feodosia continue enthusiastically exploding and burning, and that’s all that counts…
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Kursk… The Russian counteroffensive is in full swing again. Aiming to pin down the western (small) Ukrainian bulge, south of Glushkovo, the last four days the VKS is bombing the entire area – but especially villages, bridges, and roads on the Ukrainian side of the border – with dozens of UMPKs. The list of places hit is long, but essentially: everything from Ryzhivka, south of Tetkino, via Pavlivka (south-west of Sudzha) to Myropilia (south of Sudzha) is subjected to heavy air strikes – which in turn means that the PSU’s air defences for this area must’ve been whittled down, too. No less than 167 air and rocket strikes were reported form this part of the Sumy Oblast on 6 October; over 90 UMPK-strikes were recorded by the ZSU on 8 October, and another 140 on 9 October.
In military sciences, that’s a classic method called ‘interdiction’: it’s aim is hit the rear enemy areas (in this Ukrainian) and thus to cut off the flow of supplies and reinforcements to the battlefield.
The Western (‘small’) Bulge)… Sure, I can repeat that it’s 1000% certain that, back in September, the ZSU has secured Veseloye, and that all the Russian attempts to recover the same have failed. However, Ukrainian attempts to push from there on Zukhinkovka, going on for 3-4 days already, are not the least successful. It’s obvious the Russians have too many troops and firepower around that bulge.
The Eastern (‘big’) Bulge… On 8 October, the Russians deployed at least a regiment of the VDV for a big push from Korenevo on Zelyonyi Shlyakh. South of there, the Russians are also back to assaulting Nizhniy Klin, Darino and Nikolayevo-Darino. As of this morning, the VDV and VSRF have pushed the Ukrianians into the southern side of Lyubimovka and then reached Zeleyonyi Shlyakh, perhaps even the western side of Novoivanovka. Seems, the ZSU is not in control of the latter place. Foremost: if the Ukrainians do not stop the Russians before they can reach Malaya Lokna, the ZSU will have to abandon all of its positions north and north-west of that place – i.e. everything from outskirts of Korenevo to Pogrebki, and from Kireevka, Bahtinka, Nechaev to Russkoe Porechnoe.
Things are even more complicated because there’s a battered battalion of the 810th NIB still holding out in Kremanoe, and the Russians are pushing hard along the road from Sheptukhovka in that direction. Finally, the Russians are assaulting Plyekhovo like crazy’, the last 5 days…
With other words: perhaps somebody could finally stop all the silly comparisons of how much terrain has Ukraine lost inside Ukraine and won in the Kursk Oblast, which are still happily making their circles in the social media? Such statistics is entirely pointless because by now about 40% of the ZSU’s gain from August is lost, and more is near-certain to follow – because Ukraine simply does not have the air defences and artillery ammo necessary to fight this kind of a battle for ‘months’.
Therefore, cannot but characterise it as ‘cool’ it’s merely a week since the Biden Admin announced that ‘super-big aid package’ of… was it 6 or 8 billion US$?
Obvious is that nothing of that is having any kind of effects. Thus, please somebody: lead per example, show me how to be ‘positive’ and ‘optimistic’ about all of this – and all the glorious Ukrainian generals, plus Zelensky and his ‘historic developments’ announced for the coming days…
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Northern Kharkiv… the ZSU is still trying to overcome the Russian resistance in Hlyboke. In Vovchansk (or what is left of the same), as mentioned, the Russians are back to the Aggregate Plant and, contrary to the ZSU, they can count on air strikes in support of that advance, or to counter the ZSU counterattacks… yes, even when losing one of involved Mi-8 helicopters, two days ago.
Once again: the PSU can’t support – i.e. protect even minimal offensive operations from the Russian air power…
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BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kupyansk-Svatove….Supported by yet more air strikes on Kupyansk (yes, the VKS has that many aircraft, no matter how much is Ukraine targeting its ‘forward’ air bases), the Russians continued assaulting Petropavlivka. Actually, some of their troops have managed to reach the northern fringes of the village, only to get captured there.
Kruhliakivka….after failing to take Kruhliakivka by repeated frontal assaults, then failing to reach Hlushkivka, the Russians are now trying to reach Kolisnykivka instead. That village is in between the other two… and of course, there is no counterattack by ZSU into either the northern or southern flank of this Russian advance. Probably can’t be done because of the Russian control of the air. At least Berestove is still holding out. The question is: for how much longer…
Further south, after securing Makiivka and Novoliubivka, the Russians are now trying to clear the Ukrainian bulge in between of the two villages.
Siversk… have already reported that the VSRF is not in Verkhnokamianske. Doesn’t mean it stopped trying getting there. The last two days, it grinded itself along two hedgerows along the northern side of the village, and is meanwhile trying to assault its centre.
Bakhmut… relentless Russian assaults over the Siversky-Donets – Donbass Canal simply must have some result, sooner, rather than later. Unsurprisingly, much of the western side of the same in the zone between Kalynivka in the north and Novyi in the south is, definitely, out of ZSU’s control. Indeed, I would say there is a Russian bridgehead in the eastern side of Zhovtnevyi (i.e. the eastern side of Chasiv Yar) - otherwise the ZSU’s FPVs wouldn’t have to strike houses in that district, about 400 metres west of the Canal…
Toretsk… The ZSU launched a multi-prong counterattack on the Russians in the centre of Toretsk, yesterday, and this was heavily supported by FPVs, but recovered zero ground. If I’m to ask, nearly all of Zabalka is lost. …and the Russians are back on assaulting from Niu-York towards Leonidivka, too.
Pokrovsk… the Russians have re-initiated their assaults in the Krasnyi- and Krutyi Yar-areas again, plus on Mykolaivka (which was a scene of one of ZSU’s rare local counterattacks, back on 8 October), and continued their advance south of Selydove, too. Indeed, they have secured all of Tsukuryne, and reached Novoselydivka… which is actually west of Kurakhivka. So, the question is now how long might the ZSU (that is: 117th and 118th TD Brigades) in the Kurakhivka area hold out?
Actually, the only good news is that the VSRF Group Tsentr is certainly going to capture this area before initiating its onslaught on Kurakhove, Selydove, not to talk about starting the onslaught on Pokrovsk. With which we’re back to the ZSU ‘trading terrain for (Russian) losses’… and its own losses, too.
Bohoyavlenka (formerly ‘Vuhledar’) … what’s left of the 72nd Mech is now trying to slow down the Russian onslaught in that direction. Of course: the battalion-sized brigade was still NOT rotated out of the line…
….why should the GenStab-U care? This sector is so far away from Kyiv…
North of there, the 79th Airborne is trying to do the same in regards of Antonivka and Katerynivka.
At least the Russians didn’t continue north from Zolota Nyva. Guess, they were surprised by their easy seizure of that place… or the 58th Motorised arrived on time. Or both…
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Thinking of it: the sole actual ‘good news’ in all of this is that back in 2022, the ZSU trounced the VSRF and the VDV so well, and so hard, the Russians simply have no big armoured units, nor skills, nor brain, or firepower left – to, say, deploy a reinforced tank division in the Vuhledar area, and then drive all the way to Andrivka or Bahatyr. Instead, nowadays, the Keystone Cops in Moscow are obsessed with wasting thousand troops a day by assaulting Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and its field commanders are happy if they can arrange a battalion-sized mechanised assault on Kurakhove…
(Of course, that’s also related to the much better-developed railway network in the Donetsk area: the VSRF can’t advance anywhere without the railways.)
At least the onset of the rain season is nearing, and thus it’s already too late for this kind of manoeuvres…
I share the last article conclusion with the comparison to Syria. It has been my feeling for a while already and always worried it would come to this unless the Ukrainians were capable to gather immediate war winning Western support and capitalize on the Russian manpower crisis in late 2022. There is always more than one event, one battle which seal the fate of a war but if I had to point a turning point, that would be when the majority of the Russians forces were able to escape Kherson safely although the completion of the Surovikin Line could be chosen instead like an other user commented.
Much like Syria, yes RU will suffer a lot of casualties. Yes it will crippled some Russian communities just like it crippled Assadists communities (especially Alawites). Yes we will be able to collect a lot of graphic pict/videos + a lot of destroyed equipment and spectacular tanks cook off. Syrians rebels did too.
But the end, RU will just be able to crawl its way to victory through brute superiority in firepower and manpower. And despite the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians ranks fighters, they will be eventually overwhelmed, and their resistance will collapse. Just like it did to Syrians by late 2019. Just like it happened to the 72nd AFU Brigade in Vulhedar.
Assad has created the pattern. Putin has just been imitating the thing. Bid your time, ensure your forces have superior quantities of equipment and manpower, bet Western countries will grow bored of this affair like they always do and let attrition do its thing. Even the Wagner uprising is like Russian adaptation of the Jaber brothers half baked take over of Assad land. Yes it will destroy Russia in the process just like it destroyed Assad held Syria. But do you think tyrans like them care ? Ofc they dont. They just want to turn the world into a cemetery, put their thrones on everybody bones and boast "I won". Nothing else matter to them.
For a time it will take forever for Russians to take small villages. But it is exactly the war Putin wants. It allows him to calibrate his decrepit war industry and find solutions like the Iranians drones and the NK shells. Besides, Western war industries are even more decrepit than his and arguably even more corrupted. It is just counter-intuitive because he buys time to do so with blood, just like Ukraine does, but he does so while on the offensive and while holding firmly the initiative. Eventually it will be too much and Ukrainian resistance will suffer a systemic collapse.
The only way for Ukraine to avoid defeat would be fundamental reforms within its institution, total mobilization and managing to truly rival RU war production. A great endeavour. Meanwhile Zelensky is focused solely on PR and international tour to beg a few more scraps along PR victory. Like discussing who knows what with the Pope right now. In this too, he reminds me the [less capables] Syrians groups who focused solely on trying to get external support they were never going to get rather than focus on what could and needed to be done in the homefront.
If these idiots in Kyiv do not find some solution to fight the Russian aviation and find and destroy the Iskanders, then the war will be lost. Armies simply will not remain, and the rest of the population will simply be demoralized. It is practically already demoralized, because no one wants to serve under the command of these degenerates.