It seems that many in Ukraine, and in few places elsewhere, consider me a 'pessimist' - to which I tend to counter with, 'as an Austrian, I'm a natural born realist'. But, that's unimportant. What's important these days is that amid all the Ukrainian non-reporting, and Russian boasting with actually, 'unimportant details', slowly, very slowly, things are starting to clear.
If I have to correct my misspelling of that name just one more time, I'll really 'flip out'.
Recommendation: Ukraine should simplify spelling of half of names of its different villages.... and rename 29 out of some 30 Bilohorivkas that are around, too. ;-)
There's always "Fussbodenschleifmaschinenverleih" (shop in Hamburg.) You mentioned the Austrian penchant for titles. I still remember being introduced to the wife of the geography department of the University of Linz, who had her own PHD. She was "Frau Doktor Doktorin Schönfelder. While I was still being torn between "Kuss der Hand" or a western greeting, she stuck out her hand for a handshake... :)
From this ZSU column that was hit, almost all Bradleys and the Leo are supposed to be repaired and in use (I doubt that almost all Bradleys were repaired that quickly).
Likewise, it seems that the low morale of the Russian troops here is very evident given the multitude of videos of Russians simply fleeing.
And I'm not Austrian, but I'm just as realistic about the losses, in the end the losses in technology don't matter in principle. If Ukraine won outright and ended up with only one tank left, it would still have been (almost) worth it.
If Ukraine won outright and ended up with only one tank left, it would still have been (almost) worth it.
If Ukraine totally win and ended up with only one tank left, it would still have been worth (almost) the whole thing.
Are the Ukrainians holding their forward positions, or do they sometimes pull back a bit after advances? ✌🏻
The only way I see is: cutting the Kerch/Crimea Bridge. Then the Russians can't bring as many mines to the battlefield.
Lancets = EW. It's already working, but it's too little: the battlefield is much too large for EW to be effective everywhere to sufficient degree.
(That said: study the Russian videos more carefully, and you'll see that they're actually PRBS-itting: more than 50% of their claimed 'hits' are clear misses....which is why they're always 'cut off' towards the end, and the picture then 're-focused' on the target....)
Ka-52s are a problem, and are going to remain a problem. Just like ATGM-teams. There's no really useful means of countering them because they are small, highly mobile, and easy to conceal. Precisely that is why so many air forces are nowadays operating so many attack helicopters (and why ATGMs are as widespread, too).
I know it cannot be deployed on the first line but just wonder, why they do not accompany any valuable asset (e.g. SAM radar) near the front with that.
It's obvious Pudding knew his forces were in deep shit by the mere fact he decided to blow the dam. Not the act of a confident commander.
How much of the fraying RF command structure is real (Prigozhin vs the army etc. ) and how much is talk show style simulated dissent will determine whether it's going to be a re-run of 1917.
All Russian volunteer detachments will conclude contracts with the Ministry of Defense until July 1, Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov said at a conference call. The corresponding order was signed by the head of the military department, Sergei Shoigu.
Really, the more I study them, the more I'm fed up of wars. However, I'm so fed up of Putin and his scum that I would really 'love' watching the Russians tearing each other apart - and that for the next 10-15 years...
Because, that's the only way 'Wagner might convert to VSRF'.
'The dam' was quite likely 'panic'. In complete disregard of consequences. 'Fulfill the mission' - which was preventing Ukrainians from crossing the Dnipro.
Just like the withdrawal of air defences from Dnipro - which in turn left the Group of Forces Dnepr - already thrown into chaos by the mining of the dam - uncovered: what a surprise then its HQ was blown up by the PSU's Storm Shadows, too...
Reading about blowing a dam in 1941 by Soviets and then in 1943 by nazi I was thinking "how barbaric, we are lucky to live in better times". Little did I know orcs are as barbaric as back then.
First russian attrocities were in 1710 when they destroy Baturyn - capital of Ukraine at that time and killed everyone. Since then barbarism is on the same horrible level.
Seems that they screwed up the timing. Apparently it was supposed to be at the end of the week, maybe when Ukraine was trying to cross the river at Kherson. Something happened and the explosives went off early, killing the Russians playing with the explosives and some Russian forces deployed near the dam.
Exactly. If we won't see Wagners deployed on some important part of the front, then ZSU has a high probability of victory. Not because Wagners are so important, but because that would be a proof of further disintegration of Russian command chain.
So for me, one important question is today: where are Wagners?
I was worried the blowing up of the Kakhovka dam by the Russians broke you. They were always going to do it, so it was more of when than if. Not so sure if they will blow up the NPP, but wouldn't put it past them.
It is positive how little we know about the offensive so far and it's been going on for maybe even a week. The OPSEC seems tight on the ZSU side. Glad you confirmed what I suspected, that some areas of the front collapsed. Russians are really terrible, in comparison to the ZSU, when it comes to info war. Showing fake/edited photos and republishing the same destroyed company of vehicles every day from 5 different angles. If all you can do for 4 days is show the same video, it's probably not going well for you.
Bad commanders will always happen, what's important is that they are replaced, instead of failing up.
Hope you can answer the following:
1. RUMINT suggests 70-90% of VSRF reserves from both Kherson and Zaporizhia have been deployed. Is this true?
2. Various maps show multiple lines of defence (you mentioned those too). However, in practice, how many are actually manned? How many lines does the ZSU have to penetrate to essentially be roaming free at the back of VSRF?
3. How effective have the ZSU's mass artillery, MLRS and cruise/drone attacks been? It seems virtually everything within 250km from the front has been hit.
4. How effective are Ka-52 currently in stopping the ZSU? How many of those are combat ready?
Well, 'full revelation': I 'do not like' trench warfare, and 'like' mobile warfare, too... And re. Kakhovka: perhaps some Ukrainians might do so, in 20, 30 or more years.... but: I'll never forgive that attrocity to the 'Russians'... Anyway, back to your questions, and 'in a little bit different order':
3.) What was making me 'white mad' about ZSU COs, the last few days, was their 'staggered/phased application of artillery'. 'All artillery (and what air power is around) doing the same'. So, 'typically USAF' and 'typically Soviet'. 'First' HQs and depots in the rear, 'then' Russian artillery, 'then' Russian reinforcements etc. Each phase took days to complete. Meanwhile, ZSU brigades had to assault without artillery support....
Sure, eventually it 'started working' in so far that 50% (+) of the VSRF artillery in southern Zaporizhzhya was exterminated....but I do remain mad, then it must've been possible to arrange this differently. Hope, we're going to have 'years' to study and discuss this in detail...
2.) By side the growing number of Russian complaints about poorly-constructed defence lines, in wrong places etc.... the point is that defence lines - including fortifications - are useless, if not protected by mobile, preferrably mechanised forces. And the VSRF has next to no mobile forces left (even less so since these are pulverised by ZSU artillery as soon as approaching the frontline).
Why?
Because they are not 'uninterrupted'. There are always gaps between the lines of fortifications, and between minefields. And there are few ZSU COs good enough to drive into these gaps, and then 'roll' the Russians from the flank and the rear, or - and better yet - ignore them and drive yet deeper into their rear, spreading chaos as they went. And when that happens, then the fixed frontlines are just 'sitting ducks'.
1.) The VSRF is still rushing all the reserves it's got - primarily to southern Zaporizhzhya (inclulding south-westesrn Donetsk), but also to the Bakhmut area. I do not have any better info but '70-80%', which is meanwhile two days old, though. No idea if they might have the capacity and capability to rush all the 90% of their reserves to the south that quickly....
4.) Must check how many were around....didn't do so since February or so....think it was something like 1,5 regiments, or around 30. Though, and essentially, except for mines, they're one of most effective Russian 'tools' these days - especially against ZSU columns that broke through the 1st and 2nd line, and are manoeuvring freely south of the minefields.
Thanks a lot for this. There has never been a time I forgave Russians for being Russians, so the dam didn't do much to change anything. The Russian Empire (that should be it's real name) must cease to exist, preferably with Moscow becoming a lush forest again. However, I can settle for the return of the Grand Duchy of Moscow.
50% of VSRF artillery out? Is it really this catastrophic for those army groupings? These are unsustainable losses.
1. Have the night fighting capabilities of the ZSU improved with the arrival of NATO equipment?
2. There has just been a video published of the ZSU capturing Blahodatne, Donetsk. Does that mean that the ZSU have found a weak spot on the boundary of 2 VSRF army groupings?
1.) Yesno. Night-fighting capabilities are a matter of training, less so of equipment. The ZSU was good at night fighting the first half of the last year. Seems, it has recovered some of that skill now (or at least it recalled it could do so).
2.) Yesno. There are lots of weak spots along the frontline. The point was always to identify the few right ones and get there without losing too much in the process.
That said, one shouldn't jump to any kind of conclusions: the ZSU just 'got through the 1st and 2nd line in two points. Now one must expect Gerasimov to run an 'operational-level' counterattack...
In the meantime there was another "accident", this time in the Crimea, between Kerch and Dzhankoi, so the VSRF Logistics Directorate probably has a very long night shift.
Hallo Tom, danke für die ausdauernden Analysen, und ein Hoch auf den österreichischen Realo-Zynismus! Was Du schreibst erscheint in all dem Rauschen einmal mehr als die realistischste Version der ‘Wahrheit’ . Keep at it!
while I really like your insights, especially on the tactical and technical level, I am a bit careful with you reporting on Ukrainian sucesses. I still remember your reporting about Bakhmut - which was at times "veeeeeeeeery optimitic" (as you yourself might call it). I even remember the report about some counter-offensive that had encircled russion troops...
So there is a good reason, while we as external observers better wait for geolocalized video evidence (as Torsten Heinrich is doing it) before we accept significant territorial advances - even at the price of being "late" in the reporting.
But apart from that: Please continue your reporting, because it is *really* extremely insightsful to understand what is happening on the ground! And I have so far not found anyone else who can convey this such a comprehsible way!
Thank you for the good news! Exercitus Moscoviae vincendus est.
"Starmoiorsk" - Staromayorske
If I have to correct my misspelling of that name just one more time, I'll really 'flip out'.
Recommendation: Ukraine should simplify spelling of half of names of its different villages.... and rename 29 out of some 30 Bilohorivkas that are around, too. ;-)
It's ok, I'm just trying to help other suffering souls to find this village on the map, wich is not an easy task for me too. :)
Bilohorivkas, Urozhaines and so on are just a manifestation of local chthonic powers!
Funny, when I learned Germanic languadges ( even Swedish or German ) it makes me crazy how complicated words are.
Example: "forSomething"
"Forkortelse
Forbedring
Forklaring
Forankling
Forbredelse
Forarbeid"
My heard read "for --- ing" and mix all those words randomly in conversation.
Imagine faces of native speakers when a guy mix random words "preparation" with "explanation" and so on
:D
...we're world-leaders in developing complex and long words....
Unfortunatelly, Ukrainians descided to challenge German languadge with their complex place names.
Usually, its a combination of 2, 3 or 5 words like
"Little Town of st. Michael" - if you write it as 1 word, you got like
Sviatomykhailivske
But, come on: nothing beats the Donaudampfschiffahrtsgesellschaftskapitänskajuttenkochkjunge....
There's always "Fussbodenschleifmaschinenverleih" (shop in Hamburg.) You mentioned the Austrian penchant for titles. I still remember being introduced to the wife of the geography department of the University of Linz, who had her own PHD. She was "Frau Doktor Doktorin Schönfelder. While I was still being torn between "Kuss der Hand" or a western greeting, she stuck out her hand for a handshake... :)
👀 You win 😂😂😂
Actually it is quite straightforward in Ukrainian. Basically "St. Michael's"
My brother is also being transferred to a certain Bilogorivka 🧐
Never underestimate the capacity of Russian to fuck up. :)
Sh sh sh, quiet, guys. We are as quiet as graves
Thank goodness for this glimmer of good news.
We should stay quiet, guys.
Only official reports from Ukr Gen Stab
From this ZSU column that was hit, almost all Bradleys and the Leo are supposed to be repaired and in use (I doubt that almost all Bradleys were repaired that quickly).
Likewise, it seems that the low morale of the Russian troops here is very evident given the multitude of videos of Russians simply fleeing.
And I'm not Austrian, but I'm just as realistic about the losses, in the end the losses in technology don't matter in principle. If Ukraine won outright and ended up with only one tank left, it would still have been (almost) worth it.
If Ukraine won outright and ended up with only one tank left, it would still have been (almost) worth it.
If Ukraine totally win and ended up with only one tank left, it would still have been worth (almost) the whole thing.
Are the Ukrainians holding their forward positions, or do they sometimes pull back a bit after advances? ✌🏻
Yup, and while not 'pleasant', nearly all the crews came away 'intact': broken bones, shock, some scare etc.... but nobody was burned.
Principal reason is that they drove into an artillery-sown minefield, so mines were small: tearing tracks etc. None penetrated.
Its scary that russians has those mines. No idea how to counter it.
Also Lancets and KA-52.
Driving mine-clearing set on front vehacles of each column.
Reach artillery superiority
Drive Osa-like ( IRIS or NASAMs ) in each column.
Looks like a hard task to overcome it
The only way I see is: cutting the Kerch/Crimea Bridge. Then the Russians can't bring as many mines to the battlefield.
Lancets = EW. It's already working, but it's too little: the battlefield is much too large for EW to be effective everywhere to sufficient degree.
(That said: study the Russian videos more carefully, and you'll see that they're actually PRBS-itting: more than 50% of their claimed 'hits' are clear misses....which is why they're always 'cut off' towards the end, and the picture then 're-focused' on the target....)
Ka-52s are a problem, and are going to remain a problem. Just like ATGM-teams. There's no really useful means of countering them because they are small, highly mobile, and easy to conceal. Precisely that is why so many air forces are nowadays operating so many attack helicopters (and why ATGMs are as widespread, too).
Ukrainians praise Viktor AD for shooting Shahed drones - it's basically Toyota with 2 KPV guns and optical and thermal aiming: https://www.facebook.com/JointForcesCommandAFU/posts/651043357051720
I know it cannot be deployed on the first line but just wonder, why they do not accompany any valuable asset (e.g. SAM radar) near the front with that.
No surprise. Highly mobile, high volumes of firepower. Ideal weapon for this purpose.
It's obvious Pudding knew his forces were in deep shit by the mere fact he decided to blow the dam. Not the act of a confident commander.
How much of the fraying RF command structure is real (Prigozhin vs the army etc. ) and how much is talk show style simulated dissent will determine whether it's going to be a re-run of 1917.
It seems that they are finally trying to outlaw Wagner's troops by July https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/11/ministr-oborony-sergey-shoygu-prikazal-vsem-rossiyskim-dobrovolcheskim-formirovaniyam-podpisat-kontrakt-s-minoborony
All Russian volunteer detachments will conclude contracts with the Ministry of Defense until July 1, Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov said at a conference call. The corresponding order was signed by the head of the military department, Sergei Shoigu.
Good find thanks. Sounds like a time for matters to come to a head.
And Prigozgyn already told them to f.off in his very authentic manner.
....well, good luck with trying to realise that.
Really, the more I study them, the more I'm fed up of wars. However, I'm so fed up of Putin and his scum that I would really 'love' watching the Russians tearing each other apart - and that for the next 10-15 years...
Because, that's the only way 'Wagner might convert to VSRF'.
Blow the dam has nothing to do with confidence.
Its not a holiwood movie where confidence is desicive over skill and resources
Explain the timing.
'The dam' was quite likely 'panic'. In complete disregard of consequences. 'Fulfill the mission' - which was preventing Ukrainians from crossing the Dnipro.
Just like the withdrawal of air defences from Dnipro - which in turn left the Group of Forces Dnepr - already thrown into chaos by the mining of the dam - uncovered: what a surprise then its HQ was blown up by the PSU's Storm Shadows, too...
Reading about blowing a dam in 1941 by Soviets and then in 1943 by nazi I was thinking "how barbaric, we are lucky to live in better times". Little did I know orcs are as barbaric as back then.
First russian attrocities were in 1710 when they destroy Baturyn - capital of Ukraine at that time and killed everyone. Since then barbarism is on the same horrible level.
Seems that they screwed up the timing. Apparently it was supposed to be at the end of the week, maybe when Ukraine was trying to cross the river at Kherson. Something happened and the explosives went off early, killing the Russians playing with the explosives and some Russian forces deployed near the dam.
Exactly. If we won't see Wagners deployed on some important part of the front, then ZSU has a high probability of victory. Not because Wagners are so important, but because that would be a proof of further disintegration of Russian command chain.
So for me, one important question is today: where are Wagners?
They might also be the only ones with the (compelled) discipline to stand and fight.
I was worried the blowing up of the Kakhovka dam by the Russians broke you. They were always going to do it, so it was more of when than if. Not so sure if they will blow up the NPP, but wouldn't put it past them.
It is positive how little we know about the offensive so far and it's been going on for maybe even a week. The OPSEC seems tight on the ZSU side. Glad you confirmed what I suspected, that some areas of the front collapsed. Russians are really terrible, in comparison to the ZSU, when it comes to info war. Showing fake/edited photos and republishing the same destroyed company of vehicles every day from 5 different angles. If all you can do for 4 days is show the same video, it's probably not going well for you.
Bad commanders will always happen, what's important is that they are replaced, instead of failing up.
Hope you can answer the following:
1. RUMINT suggests 70-90% of VSRF reserves from both Kherson and Zaporizhia have been deployed. Is this true?
2. Various maps show multiple lines of defence (you mentioned those too). However, in practice, how many are actually manned? How many lines does the ZSU have to penetrate to essentially be roaming free at the back of VSRF?
3. How effective have the ZSU's mass artillery, MLRS and cruise/drone attacks been? It seems virtually everything within 250km from the front has been hit.
4. How effective are Ka-52 currently in stopping the ZSU? How many of those are combat ready?
Well, 'full revelation': I 'do not like' trench warfare, and 'like' mobile warfare, too... And re. Kakhovka: perhaps some Ukrainians might do so, in 20, 30 or more years.... but: I'll never forgive that attrocity to the 'Russians'... Anyway, back to your questions, and 'in a little bit different order':
3.) What was making me 'white mad' about ZSU COs, the last few days, was their 'staggered/phased application of artillery'. 'All artillery (and what air power is around) doing the same'. So, 'typically USAF' and 'typically Soviet'. 'First' HQs and depots in the rear, 'then' Russian artillery, 'then' Russian reinforcements etc. Each phase took days to complete. Meanwhile, ZSU brigades had to assault without artillery support....
Sure, eventually it 'started working' in so far that 50% (+) of the VSRF artillery in southern Zaporizhzhya was exterminated....but I do remain mad, then it must've been possible to arrange this differently. Hope, we're going to have 'years' to study and discuss this in detail...
2.) By side the growing number of Russian complaints about poorly-constructed defence lines, in wrong places etc.... the point is that defence lines - including fortifications - are useless, if not protected by mobile, preferrably mechanised forces. And the VSRF has next to no mobile forces left (even less so since these are pulverised by ZSU artillery as soon as approaching the frontline).
Why?
Because they are not 'uninterrupted'. There are always gaps between the lines of fortifications, and between minefields. And there are few ZSU COs good enough to drive into these gaps, and then 'roll' the Russians from the flank and the rear, or - and better yet - ignore them and drive yet deeper into their rear, spreading chaos as they went. And when that happens, then the fixed frontlines are just 'sitting ducks'.
1.) The VSRF is still rushing all the reserves it's got - primarily to southern Zaporizhzhya (inclulding south-westesrn Donetsk), but also to the Bakhmut area. I do not have any better info but '70-80%', which is meanwhile two days old, though. No idea if they might have the capacity and capability to rush all the 90% of their reserves to the south that quickly....
4.) Must check how many were around....didn't do so since February or so....think it was something like 1,5 regiments, or around 30. Though, and essentially, except for mines, they're one of most effective Russian 'tools' these days - especially against ZSU columns that broke through the 1st and 2nd line, and are manoeuvring freely south of the minefields.
Thanks a lot for this. There has never been a time I forgave Russians for being Russians, so the dam didn't do much to change anything. The Russian Empire (that should be it's real name) must cease to exist, preferably with Moscow becoming a lush forest again. However, I can settle for the return of the Grand Duchy of Moscow.
50% of VSRF artillery out? Is it really this catastrophic for those army groupings? These are unsustainable losses.
1. Have the night fighting capabilities of the ZSU improved with the arrival of NATO equipment?
2. There has just been a video published of the ZSU capturing Blahodatne, Donetsk. Does that mean that the ZSU have found a weak spot on the boundary of 2 VSRF army groupings?
1.) Yesno. Night-fighting capabilities are a matter of training, less so of equipment. The ZSU was good at night fighting the first half of the last year. Seems, it has recovered some of that skill now (or at least it recalled it could do so).
2.) Yesno. There are lots of weak spots along the frontline. The point was always to identify the few right ones and get there without losing too much in the process.
That said, one shouldn't jump to any kind of conclusions: the ZSU just 'got through the 1st and 2nd line in two points. Now one must expect Gerasimov to run an 'operational-level' counterattack...
Looks like the railway bridge was restructured at Yakymivka, hopefully slowing down the transports from Dzhankoi
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-june-railway-bridge-was-blown-up-in-yakymivka-of-zaporizhzhia
In the meantime there was another "accident", this time in the Crimea, between Kerch and Dzhankoi, so the VSRF Logistics Directorate probably has a very long night shift.
AFAIK, it was two bridges on the railway between Crimea and Melitopol.
Hallo Tom, danke für die ausdauernden Analysen, und ein Hoch auf den österreichischen Realo-Zynismus! Was Du schreibst erscheint in all dem Rauschen einmal mehr als die realistischste Version der ‘Wahrheit’ . Keep at it!
Dear Tom! Thank you for being realistic. It is rare - not to get carried away, or being following the party line.
I can find all sorts of "we all gonna die" as well as "2-3 weeks and war will be over" people on the internet.
Thanks to your analysis - I have been able to understand the development that none of those people managed to explain.
From your keyboard to God's eyes...
This is also an interesting news.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667858679159291904
Hi Sarcastosaurus,
while I really like your insights, especially on the tactical and technical level, I am a bit careful with you reporting on Ukrainian sucesses. I still remember your reporting about Bakhmut - which was at times "veeeeeeeeery optimitic" (as you yourself might call it). I even remember the report about some counter-offensive that had encircled russion troops...
So there is a good reason, while we as external observers better wait for geolocalized video evidence (as Torsten Heinrich is doing it) before we accept significant territorial advances - even at the price of being "late" in the reporting.
But apart from that: Please continue your reporting, because it is *really* extremely insightsful to understand what is happening on the ground! And I have so far not found anyone else who can convey this such a comprehsible way!
Thanks for the very good work!
Fair enough.
✌️
🫡💛💙
🙏
Thanks Tom. You are just delivering both bad and the good news
дякую вам 💙💛