Ukraine War, 11 June 2023: Wars are no Videogames

It seems that many in Ukraine, and in few places elsewhere, consider me a 'pessimist' - to which I tend to counter with, 'as an Austrian, I'm a natural born realist'.

But, that's unimportant. What's important these days is that amid all the Ukrainian non-reporting, and Russian boasting with actually, 'unimportant details', slowly, very slowly, things are starting to clear.

Sure, 'the going is (still) though' in the Orikhiv sector of the frontline (which I've described in my 'update' from yesterday morning). But, see here: it was at least as rough further east, in the Velyka Novosilka area. After all, this is where one of involved Ukrainian brigades got caught by the Russian artillery while still assembling for attack, and another suffered losses in vehicles while trying to capture Novodonetske...Among others, these two failures have prompted the widespread boasting by Putin's PRBS-machinery that the 'Ukrainian counteroffensive failed'.

....but, videos can be so deceiving - especially since they're next to never explaining the backgrounds and context, and even less so what happened before..... or AFTER. Moreover, sometimes it turns out that securing certain places (like Novodonetske in this case) is not as important as it seems before the battle.

One way or the other, and as it turned out meanwhile, two days ago the ZSU collapsed the VSRF positions south of Velyka Novosilka area, resulting in a panicky withdrawal of surviving troops of the 60th Motor Rifle Regiment in direction of Starmaiorsk. That's what the attached still from a video is shown...

RUMINT has it, the southern prong of this advance then drove all the way to Krasna Polana.... (for orientation purposes: that's about half-way to Mariupol).

Of course, along standards of the social media, 'nothing happened until confirmed by photos and videos'. Therefore, lets remain (extremely) cautious and patient (for another 3-4 days), and just show the attached still from a video shown survivors of the 60th Motor Rifle Regiment (VSRF) fleeing in direction of Staromaiorsk.

....and ignore the fact that this means a partial collapse of the 1st Line and penetration of the 2nd Line of the Russian defences (and that at one of their best-defended sectors)....

…or the fact that there are similarly ‘positive’ news from the area south-east of Vuhledar (‘hint, hint’)…

It might appear cynical, but from that standpoint, the much louded 'heavy losses' (in vehicles, not in troops) of three Ukrainian brigades during the 'breaching portion of the operation' - have served their purposes. Moreover: at least now it's clear why Putin's PRBS-machinery was so insistent on stories about 'everybody fighting heroically, steadfastly holding their positions', the last few days...

Of course, who am I to say…