Hello everybody! As usually, Don will be back with his weekly-review, tomorrow. I’m ‘just jumping in’ with few comments and observations. For the start, these days, we can watch, almost ‘live’, what happens when the West screws up so much with artillery ammunition supply for Ukraine, that things are ‘rapidly going downhill’. Combined with an ‘all-out’ Russian push on multiple points along the frontline, and adapted assault tactics – see ‘mining under enemy positions’ – this is enabling Pudding’s hordes significant advances in places where they have systematically failed over the last two years. And that at the time when, thanks to a major showdown between leading idiots in the US Congress, the Pentagon has run out of money to fund new weapons contracts for Kyiv, or funds that would allow it to take inventory from its stockpiles and ship these to Ukraine. With other words: Russia is exploiting its advantage in resources to make gains in few locations of its interest.
Thanks as always Tom. How do you describe the skills of the VKS now, they are improved or they are in full wartume footage so they are rotating airframes to not repeat what happens un august-october of 2022?
Still trying to collect all the necessary info to properly assess, but yes: seems, they're rotating airframes - and overhauling and patching up whatever they can.
putin said, stop giving weapons to Ukraine and the war will end. So they decided not to give it, and the Trumpists are doing it. Nobody needs this Ukraine. Everyone is sure that having captured Ukraine, putin will not go further. In general, Ukrainians, you were brave, but in the end you were abandoned. Everyone is already tired of the war; we need to have normal relations with russia again. End.
А в чем русская пропаганда, в том что у пацанов на 0 нету достаточного бк, так об этом Том Купер пишет. И имя у меня не российское имя, а славянское. Ты лучше скажи спасибо западу и сша, за то что сейчас ВСУ могут стрелять 1000-2000 снарядов в день, а кацапы 10к. Шел 2 год войны.
Borrell admitted recently that 40% of artillery shells produced in EU are exported somewhere, so it's not the problem of productions rates but money, meanwhile Ukrainians are dying without artillery support - is this russian propaganda too? Poland farmers block the borders and destroy the grain which was gathered on the demined fields and Polish poolice does nothing.
Germal/Poland industrial export to Kyrghyztan grows 1000%+ during the war - is the russian propoganda?
Dont listen to what west politician say but look at what they do, and you'll see that no one wants Ukraine in Europe, they want it gone and make money with putin as they did before.
Because Ukraine is not Russia, as Kuchma used to say. But you cant deny that Europe is not doing they job properly, because if they did there would be no russia today.
Maybe they are starting to understand the seriousness of the situation only now, esp after Trump insane remarks, but its too little too late, I am afraid.
Yes, Russia is not going to attack other countries like it said it is not going to attack Ukraine. It is like an alcoholic saying let me have one last binge and then I'll go sober. The sad irony is that, one way or another, Russia is going to get its needed beating. But I for one would rather that happen right now and not after letting Ukraine be destroyed!
Your proposal looks like you will forgive them for the murder of children and relatives, the destruction of your country, just for the sake of having good relations with the Russians again? Are you sure you're Ukrainian? Or are you for everything good and against everything bad? Too much Ukrainian blood has already been shed - our grandchildren and great-grandchildren should remember this and never have any more illusions about Russia.
Thanks, Tom. As always, a no bs assessment of the current situation. What do you think in your estimation the chances of Ukraine getting 155mm shells in the amounts required, from other actors besides US?
I don't follow the tactical situation in Gaza much, but I recently saw official reporting that as of the end of the ceasefire, Israel was expending 100K artillery shells at a monthly rate. Stipulate that this includes 120 mm, non-HE 155mm etc., for 25-50% of the total. If overall expenditure rates stayed the same in December and January, and there was also some shelling in the October preparatory phase, then Israel could easily have fired 2-300K 155mm HE over the past 4 months.
When I previously saw that the US was selling Israel over 50K 155mm shells (M107/M795), such as from WRSA-I, I thought that was Israel just being jealous of its own stockpile; my assumption from the beginning was that artillery usage would resemble 2014 rates, i.e. something Elbit could comfortably replenish over the rest of the decade.
But damn if they haven't gone hog wild with the munitions. Evidently the IDF on the ground has been effective and suffered few casualties, and I wonder how much of that is attributable to using as much 155mm as the whole country of Ukraine during the same timeframe against an area the size of the Bakhmut salient, with no real counter-artillery?
From other side, it still looks better than spring 2022. Thanks to FPV that makes advancement from both sides very costly( if you not have powerful jamming or tunnel)
From the military education i got from Tom and Don drones are just one multiplier in this kind of war so that doesnt mean much .. im disgusted how the west baited ukr to be part of the west and now turning their backs
Something special is ongoing: the head of ZSU is Russian and the head of TRO is anti-Maidan. It is possible that nationalists were removed from leading positions of armed forces for some (future) reason.
Who said he is (or was) 'anti-Maidan'? The fact he survived all the years ever since is rather indicative of the typical problem of a higher-ranking officer: he was following his orders.
And, since when does it matter if the head of the ZSU is Russian?
Nationalists can be depended for that aspect of their motivation. Sure. But, nobody said this is making them the best choices.
Nationalists are not better or worse. They have specific ideas and may not accept all the outcomes, thus they are dangerous in the case a U-turn is being planned.
Zaluzhny and 'Nationalists' were all the time listening to the Americans. So much so, Miley & Co were, de-facto, planning the summer offensive. We've seen where did that lead.
Time to try something else: now don't gauge the day before the dawn.
There is quite opposite opinion that za did something different to what usa adviced him. The advice was to concentrate all troops on single area and do it as early as possible. By the way there is another article at politico and they mention your opinion as to why za was fired. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-general-runs-out-of-road-kyiv-washington/
Awful months. Thanks to Trump and Republicans. These geniuses 4 months wanted border with supplemental bill, but refused in first day. And last 3 days they made more progress than for a 3 previous months
Talking about old tanks, Russia will fully burn their IFV reserves in 2 years. I mean every piece that USSR saved for war against NATO. This betrayal from USA cost Ukraine too many lives
From positive side, looks like Ukraine reveals it's own package of oil sanctions through drones.
Actually: thanks to the friends Pudding and Bibi. They've initiated this.
Re. Russian armour reserves: we'll see. The way they act, they're going to find a solution long before the 'People in need of Fresh Air' (Pentagon) and the 'People with a Broomstick up their Backside' (NATO) might ever come to the idea to follow in fashion.
And yes: right now, the strategic bombing campaign by drones is the only way forward for Ukraine.
I'm afraid like the term "offensive" and the parameters of operational success, "strategic bombing" is being defined downward toward meaninglessness.
Drones are useful for keeping AD out of Ukraine and subjecting the VKS to at least some mutual attrition, but let's be clear: a few thousand pounds of explosive a month, or even a week, are not even a pinprick to Russian industry or economy.
As for the Russian arsenal, I've calculated and recalculated it over and over for my notes, and the satellite watching of Covert Cabal, Himarsed, and others, bears out my observation since 2022, which is that Russia is only at serious risk of depleting its active service AFVs by or in 2027. Not least because they can always choose to - just stop attacking quite as much or quite as recklessly!
But even I didn't expect such an aggressive RuFOR fall/winter campaign. Putin must truly believe Ukraine is on the ropes, and all it needs is an extra push...
Thanks for info. It doesn't look good. What do you think about ua attacks at oil rafinerries and ... ? Is russia able to protect them? If not it can be the hardest sanctions.
It feels like a lot of structural issues were allowed to linger until a dangerous point.
I've got a few questions on usually boring part boring part :
- Is it sensible to create a new full branch in the middle of conflict ? I am referring to Zelensky announcement of the creation of a Drone Branch within the AFU.
- What is your opinion on the AFU structure based on brigades and ad hoc territorial command ? A lot of Westerner commentators (or to be honest, tankers & lobbyists) said AFU lacks trained staff to man division & Army Corps level HQs. However, I saw on an euromaidanpress article Yuriy Butusov saying the exact opposite while commenting on the "bloated administration". That AFU has too much headquarters while it lacks infantry.
- Is it common and sensible to change most/all high level leaders in the Armed Forces like Zelensky just did by replacing not just Zalhuny but it seems most senior positions as well ?
I admit I am not very optimistic about all the changes announced. I feel like since late 2022 victories in Kherson and Kharkiv, a lot of decisions on the highest level, aka Zelensky, are made primary by wishful thinking. I sure hope Zaluzhny was replaced primary because he asked more men while not preparing any substantial offensive operation for 2024 as some media says. Just my 2 cents of course.
For years and years NATO was preparing for the war with Russia (or the USSR) and now it is unfit even to lead this war with the help of Ukraine. Moreover some elderly megalomaniac threatens to leave alone other than USA NATO members if attacked by Russia. And all the might of USA is nullified by primitive blackmail.
Hopefully Syrskyi will not send loads of people to their death in Avdiivka for the sake brownie points from Zelenskyy. If he does, that's precisely why army people were afraid of his appointment. And so far, I'm yet to hear from anyone involved about them being happy about his appointment.
Thanks for your work, Tom, even if it seems depressing. But truth is truth, for blatant lies and assorted BS always may watch RT.
IMHO, the shell shortage in Ukraine is a shame that going to be a black spot in History (as if that may shackle our “Cosmopoliticians”, brave as they are).
You have forgotten to thanks to Mr Trump as the main actor behind.
Ah, he's just an FSB-asset, for 30+ years, meanwhile, so not even counting him.
Thanks as always Tom. How do you describe the skills of the VKS now, they are improved or they are in full wartume footage so they are rotating airframes to not repeat what happens un august-october of 2022?
Still trying to collect all the necessary info to properly assess, but yes: seems, they're rotating airframes - and overhauling and patching up whatever they can.
putin said, stop giving weapons to Ukraine and the war will end. So they decided not to give it, and the Trumpists are doing it. Nobody needs this Ukraine. Everyone is sure that having captured Ukraine, putin will not go further. In general, Ukrainians, you were brave, but in the end you were abandoned. Everyone is already tired of the war; we need to have normal relations with russia again. End.
So putler's prostitutes get to this comment section as well with russian name and russian propoganda
А в чем русская пропаганда, в том что у пацанов на 0 нету достаточного бк, так об этом Том Купер пишет. И имя у меня не российское имя, а славянское. Ты лучше скажи спасибо западу и сша, за то что сейчас ВСУ могут стрелять 1000-2000 снарядов в день, а кацапы 10к. Шел 2 год войны.
Borrell admitted recently that 40% of artillery shells produced in EU are exported somewhere, so it's not the problem of productions rates but money, meanwhile Ukrainians are dying without artillery support - is this russian propaganda too? Poland farmers block the borders and destroy the grain which was gathered on the demined fields and Polish poolice does nothing.
Germal/Poland industrial export to Kyrghyztan grows 1000%+ during the war - is the russian propoganda?
Dont listen to what west politician say but look at what they do, and you'll see that no one wants Ukraine in Europe, they want it gone and make money with putin as they did before.
So why Ukraine not to join russia and attack EU togeather then?
Because Ukraine is not Russia, as Kuchma used to say. But you cant deny that Europe is not doing they job properly, because if they did there would be no russia today.
Maybe they are starting to understand the seriousness of the situation only now, esp after Trump insane remarks, but its too little too late, I am afraid.
Why is this d*** not banned?
Yes, Russia is not going to attack other countries like it said it is not going to attack Ukraine. It is like an alcoholic saying let me have one last binge and then I'll go sober. The sad irony is that, one way or another, Russia is going to get its needed beating. But I for one would rather that happen right now and not after letting Ukraine be destroyed!
Yura, wouldn’t you go to hell with your Putin?
Я живу в 20 км от пидарашки и каждую неделю сюда прилетают кабы. Спроси у военных, как там у них с бк, все нормально.
So relocate to russia if you like them so much. Putin's prostitute
I didn't insult you, mind you. So it looks like you are Russian. Either way, it's time to ban you.
Your proposal looks like you will forgive them for the murder of children and relatives, the destruction of your country, just for the sake of having good relations with the Russians again? Are you sure you're Ukrainian? Or are you for everything good and against everything bad? Too much Ukrainian blood has already been shed - our grandchildren and great-grandchildren should remember this and never have any more illusions about Russia.
Thanks, Tom. As always, a no bs assessment of the current situation. What do you think in your estimation the chances of Ukraine getting 155mm shells in the amounts required, from other actors besides US?
Thanks to the Western games with Israel: 0.
Very depressing.
Any chance for Biden/US government to solve this dilemma with a form of „Ringtausch“ with NATO partners?
I don't follow the tactical situation in Gaza much, but I recently saw official reporting that as of the end of the ceasefire, Israel was expending 100K artillery shells at a monthly rate. Stipulate that this includes 120 mm, non-HE 155mm etc., for 25-50% of the total. If overall expenditure rates stayed the same in December and January, and there was also some shelling in the October preparatory phase, then Israel could easily have fired 2-300K 155mm HE over the past 4 months.
When I previously saw that the US was selling Israel over 50K 155mm shells (M107/M795), such as from WRSA-I, I thought that was Israel just being jealous of its own stockpile; my assumption from the beginning was that artillery usage would resemble 2014 rates, i.e. something Elbit could comfortably replenish over the rest of the decade.
But damn if they haven't gone hog wild with the munitions. Evidently the IDF on the ground has been effective and suffered few casualties, and I wonder how much of that is attributable to using as much 155mm as the whole country of Ukraine during the same timeframe against an area the size of the Bakhmut salient, with no real counter-artillery?
Disgusting to see how this war is slowly beeing lost by ukr b.c no support ..world is going to shit , need to study rusky fck
From other side, it still looks better than spring 2022. Thanks to FPV that makes advancement from both sides very costly( if you not have powerful jamming or tunnel)
From the military education i got from Tom and Don drones are just one multiplier in this kind of war so that doesnt mean much .. im disgusted how the west baited ukr to be part of the west and now turning their backs
West just promised ukraine every year to get them into EU, NATO since 2004 when they encourage protests.
War started, Boris came to Kyiv, promised support so they continued fight,
1.5 year ago Biden said "stay with Ukraine as long as it takes".
1 year later - just abandon Ukraine, let them all die.
The newly assigned head of TRO (teroborona) commanded Yanukovich's internal forces during the attempts to suppress Maidan in 2013.
https://hromadske.ua/posts/novij-komanduvach-sil-tro-plahutin-keruvav-vnutrishnimi-vijskami-pri-rozgoni-majdanu
....and was neither prosecuted nor jailed under Zaluzhny?
If not: where is the problem?
Something special is ongoing: the head of ZSU is Russian and the head of TRO is anti-Maidan. It is possible that nationalists were removed from leading positions of armed forces for some (future) reason.
Who said he is (or was) 'anti-Maidan'? The fact he survived all the years ever since is rather indicative of the typical problem of a higher-ranking officer: he was following his orders.
And, since when does it matter if the head of the ZSU is Russian?
Nationalists can be depended for that aspect of their motivation. Sure. But, nobody said this is making them the best choices.
Plakhuta commanded internal forces that assaulted Maidan https://hromadske.ua/posts/novij-komanduvach-sil-tro-plahutin-keruvav-vnutrishnimi-vijskami-pri-rozgoni-majdanu
Nationalists are not better or worse. They have specific ideas and may not accept all the outcomes, thus they are dangerous in the case a U-turn is being planned.
Zaluzhny and 'Nationalists' were all the time listening to the Americans. So much so, Miley & Co were, de-facto, planning the summer offensive. We've seen where did that lead.
Time to try something else: now don't gauge the day before the dawn.
I think its russian trolls.
I opened russian news - they are all in "Syrsky is from russia".
No idea why its important for them.
It seems noone except russians care.
The problem is they go with some crazy idea, then started to believe in it, then you hear about it all the time.
Like it was with "ukrainians are nazi".
There is quite opposite opinion that za did something different to what usa adviced him. The advice was to concentrate all troops on single area and do it as early as possible. By the way there is another article at politico and they mention your opinion as to why za was fired. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-general-runs-out-of-road-kyiv-washington/
Awful months. Thanks to Trump and Republicans. These geniuses 4 months wanted border with supplemental bill, but refused in first day. And last 3 days they made more progress than for a 3 previous months
Talking about old tanks, Russia will fully burn their IFV reserves in 2 years. I mean every piece that USSR saved for war against NATO. This betrayal from USA cost Ukraine too many lives
From positive side, looks like Ukraine reveals it's own package of oil sanctions through drones.
Actually: thanks to the friends Pudding and Bibi. They've initiated this.
Re. Russian armour reserves: we'll see. The way they act, they're going to find a solution long before the 'People in need of Fresh Air' (Pentagon) and the 'People with a Broomstick up their Backside' (NATO) might ever come to the idea to follow in fashion.
And yes: right now, the strategic bombing campaign by drones is the only way forward for Ukraine.
How its even possible a country 30 times smaller economy, who cannot produce a normal car, phone or fridge can outproduce all of them.
Looks like they just dont care.
Germany alone produces 3-5 mil cars a year.
155 mm artillery shell is much easier to produce then car, maybe 1000 times easier.
A country with the economy of Italy beats all 30 EU countries? No way
Ancient Sparta?
Rome?
European fighters conquering Americas?
I'm afraid like the term "offensive" and the parameters of operational success, "strategic bombing" is being defined downward toward meaninglessness.
Drones are useful for keeping AD out of Ukraine and subjecting the VKS to at least some mutual attrition, but let's be clear: a few thousand pounds of explosive a month, or even a week, are not even a pinprick to Russian industry or economy.
As for the Russian arsenal, I've calculated and recalculated it over and over for my notes, and the satellite watching of Covert Cabal, Himarsed, and others, bears out my observation since 2022, which is that Russia is only at serious risk of depleting its active service AFVs by or in 2027. Not least because they can always choose to - just stop attacking quite as much or quite as recklessly!
But even I didn't expect such an aggressive RuFOR fall/winter campaign. Putin must truly believe Ukraine is on the ropes, and all it needs is an extra push...
Sobering analysis. Damn our weak politicians once again 😡
Thanks for info. It doesn't look good. What do you think about ua attacks at oil rafinerries and ... ? Is russia able to protect them? If not it can be the hardest sanctions.
Well. These are bleak news lately.
It feels like a lot of structural issues were allowed to linger until a dangerous point.
I've got a few questions on usually boring part boring part :
- Is it sensible to create a new full branch in the middle of conflict ? I am referring to Zelensky announcement of the creation of a Drone Branch within the AFU.
- What is your opinion on the AFU structure based on brigades and ad hoc territorial command ? A lot of Westerner commentators (or to be honest, tankers & lobbyists) said AFU lacks trained staff to man division & Army Corps level HQs. However, I saw on an euromaidanpress article Yuriy Butusov saying the exact opposite while commenting on the "bloated administration". That AFU has too much headquarters while it lacks infantry.
- Is it common and sensible to change most/all high level leaders in the Armed Forces like Zelensky just did by replacing not just Zalhuny but it seems most senior positions as well ?
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/10/syrskyi-in-zaluzhnyi-out-what-to-expect-from-ukraines-army-reshuffle/?swcfwerwer#:~:text=Third%2C%20Zaluzhnyi%20leaves,will%20need%20restructuring
https://militaryland.net/news/changes-at-the-command-of-armed-forces-of-ukraine/
I admit I am not very optimistic about all the changes announced. I feel like since late 2022 victories in Kherson and Kharkiv, a lot of decisions on the highest level, aka Zelensky, are made primary by wishful thinking. I sure hope Zaluzhny was replaced primary because he asked more men while not preparing any substantial offensive operation for 2024 as some media says. Just my 2 cents of course.
Спасибо за работу
For years and years NATO was preparing for the war with Russia (or the USSR) and now it is unfit even to lead this war with the help of Ukraine. Moreover some elderly megalomaniac threatens to leave alone other than USA NATO members if attacked by Russia. And all the might of USA is nullified by primitive blackmail.
Both rely on their nuclear weapons
Both rely also on millions of people (mostly poorly educated) supporting their rhetorics of a madman.
Hopefully Syrskyi will not send loads of people to their death in Avdiivka for the sake brownie points from Zelenskyy. If he does, that's precisely why army people were afraid of his appointment. And so far, I'm yet to hear from anyone involved about them being happy about his appointment.
I'll come back to this in my next feature.
Thanks for your work, Tom, even if it seems depressing. But truth is truth, for blatant lies and assorted BS always may watch RT.
IMHO, the shell shortage in Ukraine is a shame that going to be a black spot in History (as if that may shackle our “Cosmopoliticians”, brave as they are).
I only may said: Слава Україні! Героям слава!
Shall we not forget.
Thanks Top, precise like always, One question, what is the furthest distance that an R-37 missile has hit the target? . . Regards
No idea, mate. Though, think there is a video showing one coming down some 300+ km away from Russian lines....
I really wish I had something funny to say about this, but I don't. This situation sucks, and we let it get to this level.