When the Russians fled near Kharkiv, ZSU advanced quickly. A similar advance happened in Kursk region.
And you see that the Russian army was able to break through and advance in the first days of the war against the unprepared ZSU, which it could not defeat in the following years.
Thus I see no wonder that the Syrian opposition advanced quickly when their enemies ran away. And the battle would have probably taken quite a different course if the opposition had to fight through 10 km deep minefields under FPV drones and heavy artillery fire.
Fact: for the CMO to cause the Assadists, Russians and the IRGC to ran away, it first had to defeat them. Indeed: to smash their chain of command in Aleppo, and overrun their fortified positions.
...and then it had to repeat that in Hama and then assault Homs before its enemies could recover from the first shock.
So, if you like, OK: 'there was no battle'. None at all... 🙄
Fact: both the Russian and Ukrainian armies successfully overran fortified positions when the enemy had no time to prepare. But compare how far the Russians got in Donbas through the 2014 LoC and Ukrainians in the counteroffensive of 2023.
Ru army is digging like mad. within days (sometimes - even hours) they build up fortifications in best traditions of Soviet Army and as it is advised in tactic books. maybe it is the only thing they do perfect.
ZSU, local UA authorities and other involved prefer to do nothing and to hope for a miracle. that's why there is almost no fortifications behind Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar etc. Waisted time, stolen billions... we have roads, flowers, Christmas trees instead.
When frontlines come closer, they begin hysterical construction of ineffective fortifications...
If i were responsible for fortifications, i would now been constructing those at Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka - Dobropillia - Shakhtarske line. steel, concrete, wood - 3, maybe 4 lines. with minefields etc.
We live in an age where people live in echo chambers, including inside their own souls, and any information which is dissonant or unpleasant is dismissed as disinformation and bearers of such information are trolls, fascists, Kremlin agents, whatever. There is no intellectual tolerance, no admission that different points of view may have something to them, and that we have to work to get at the truth, which may be elusive. Even bad news, however factual, is treated as some kind of disinformation.
I'm old enough to remember open and frank discussion of controversial issues like the Vietnam war, where people didn't agree, of course, but at least listened to each other. The idea that wise men might disagree about this or that was still alive.
Nowadays we don't even have facts we can agree about, or even agree that there is a such thing as facts independent of our own narratives.
It's alarming. It seems to me that we may be on the edge of some kind of societal collapse.
Certainly it WEAKENS us. Those who live in a fantasy world inside an echo chamber are basically helpless, and can never stand up against any real threat. You see it in this war -- our whole country basically got caught up in propaganda about Crimean beach parties and victory just around the corner and never took the challenge seriously enough to realize that we would have to make real sacrifices and allocate an order of magnitude more resources to this conflict to have any chance of winning it. With the result which we see now. I believe that when this is all over the Ukrainians will hate us more than they hate the Russians.
Sorry I got to disagree with your well written post. I was in High School and College during the Vietnam war and we had the same pigheaded stubbornness -ARROGANCE- from those at the top. Just read 'The Best and the Brightest' or 'A Bright and Shining Lie' and you can see we had fools in Washington DC and The Pentagon. Yeah I was young but that was a televised war and I well remember the American death counts being released by MACV in Saigon. (Nobody tallied S Vietnamese death counts) You thought this SHIT would never end. Year after year. American pilots being paraded in the Hanoi streets.
Media was a bit better and questioned things.
But by an large they are 'embedded' now.
See you at the White House Press Dinner.
P.S. I use to read Izzy Stone's I. F. Stone's Weekly. Yup he was an old Red but he could cut through the bullshit. And there was plenty in the Good Ole Day's
P.S.S. Everyone was pushing for the 'Youth Vote' back in the 60's and 70's. If you are old enough to die for your country (18)...you are old enough to Vote.
I don't think we disagree, actually. Yes, the mistakes at the top were the same -- Vietnam was a total clusterfumble like all the wars since, including Ukraine -- a total failure to formulate and achieve goals worth the cost and destruction.
The difference is that SOCIETY had a vigorous debate about it, with the media applying critical thought and questioning what the government was doing. Diverse voices could be heard in the media. The My Lai Massacre got huge press coverage, and the Pentagon Papers were published in the NYT.
Fast forward to today, and no one debates anyone any more. The media acts like state media -- like Pravda in the USSR. Rather than publishing Assange's and Snowden's leaks of heinous government misconduct and lies, we put them in jail (or try to; compare how Daniel Ellsberg was treated).
Nyall Ferguson wrote that we are living in "Late Soviet America". I agree. I love the t-shirt I saw recently -- "Make Orwell Fiction Again".
I would slightly shift the focus of your argument to something more systemic.
I think it isn’t really about, as you put it, “living in an age where people reside in echo chambers, including within their own souls, dismissing any dissonant or unpleasant information as disinformation and labeling its bearers as trolls, fascists, Kremlin agents, or whatever”; rather, i see this as a consequence about living in an era where social networks have handed a global "soapbox at Hyde Park Corner" to anyone, including (and unfortunately, the vast majority) those who blatantly ignore (both consciously, but, again, the vast majority unconsciously) EVERY rule of a proper debate.
When arguments are simply trashed away, cherrypicking is endemic, what kind of meaningful confrontation can there be? It devolves into an arrogant display of dogmatic (and, when contradicted, often violent) rhetoric—a confrontation reminiscent of clashes between rival football ultras.
The basic rules of proper debate are discarded in favor of worthless discussions between hollow repeaters of mainstream-media-spread PRBSs.
Take Syria as an example: today, the so-called “well-informed” can’t stop parroting the latest Kremlin-manufactured talking points, promptly amplified by our super-smart-oh-so-professional news outlets: “jihadist rebels,” “Syria will just become another Afghanistan no matter what,” or “poor Assad, he’s the lesser evil after all...”
" if I express critique for another of his incompetent decisions, then there are at least 14 Ukrainians living abroad, 5 Germans, 4 Swedes, 3 Britons, 2 US-Americans, 1 Italian, and 7 who-knows-who-else falling all over me"
This is your fault. By your (and especially Don's) writing you have attracted such audience.
An audience that goes through ecstasy every time you write about how Russia lost another million troops in their "useless" attacks. Now you are directly responsible for intruding on these people's emotional well being.
It saddens me to read this. All I can say the best I can do, for what I write, is to remind myself I can't change anyone's opinion. I can change what's going on. All I can do is point out what I see, that others might see, so they, I, don't believe I'm stupid or insane. Even if what we see is wrong. That we see a falsehood is not false in itself. Anyway, reading you makes me feel less insane. And I believe, in a way, this stuff does eventually make it into decision making. But never in a way it can be traced. Ah "faith" an idea that follows mankind around taunting him, crushing him, sometimes a moment of optimism.
Syrsky taking over command of a Donestk sector, of the long Ukrainian front line? Seriously that is "Soviet/Russian level command and control prestige games" PLUS other historical wartime scenarios which have been found ineffective in the long run and context in today's war situation(command and control, weapons, tactical and strategic means/aims, etc) not 18th century warlordism.
Espero que los pagos que te hacen los servicios de inteligencia alrededor del mundo, estén debidamente incluidos en tu declaración de impuestos. En segundo lugar, aunque creo que dar un pronostico a largo plazo no es de tu gusto, que nos puedes decir que le espera a Ucrania en el futuro inmediato?
Con respecto a Siria, Libano, Gaza, Hezbolla, Iran, Turquia e Israel, que crees que pasará? Un eterno presente de operaciones militares de baja intensidad para justificar la presencia de Netanyahoo.com y otros al mando de Israel?
1.) You do not really expect me to report all the millions I'm earning from working for 50+ different intelligence services to be reported to the tax authorities? I mean, if every decent oligarch and/CEO can excel in tax-avoidance, why can't I?
2.) Ukraine is going to continue losing because it's government is disuniting the nation (indeed: short of ripping it apart), and because the command of its armed forces is incompetent. Unless that changes, it's almost pointless to go into bigger discussions of what's going on around the battlefield.
3.) Israel, Türkey, and USA are going to do their best to rip Syria apart again. Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia will try to get their 'slice of the cake', of course.
Ugh! Even more depression is induced in me wrt 2.). What I gather is that Ukraine is still Ukraine right now due to the massive incompetence of Putin, the Russian Genstab, etc. "Special Military Operation." Aside from Russian massive incompetence the Ukrainians are defeating themselves and threatening their own independence for the reasons that you have adduced through multiple Substack posts. Ugh! Ugh! UGH! :(
Perhaps the Ukrainian leadership should import advisors from al-Jolani's boys on how to prosecute a real & effective Ukrainian SMO of their own devising! [wishful thinking & mild sarcasm on my part--after all, I'm only an amateur at this. **LOL**]
It is simply that modern states and armies are incredibly resilient. Something like Rocky Balboa, take a beating and ask for more.
Syria was a wreak for 10 years yet it still stood în the field against Israel attacks, US sanctions, Kurdish separatism, Sunni revolts and Turkish land grabbing.
Ukraine has no such pressure and receives huge support from US and EU. It would require insane levels of stupidity to crash into a collapse.
"Point is this: don’t worry, Syrsky didn’t fire even one of them. They’re all good buddies and thus he can’t do such things". This is not because they are buddies, there is currently no legal basis to do this as far as I know.
it's not like no one understands that reforms are needed, but it's really difficult to do it in peace time and "forget about it" during the war times. But yes, chances for a miracle are slim.
This is a popular but idiotic opinion. It's just an excuse.
"Its hard to go to the hospital when you're well and even harder when you're sick, therefore medicine is impossible, I'll just lie down and wait for a miracle".
in case of political will - it is no problem at all. especially in war times. but there is none.
Syrsky is totally incompetent, same - his buddies in GSU. Ze is totally incompetent, same - his buddies in Administration, Verkhovna Rada and government.
I would prefer a junta management now, headed by anyone like Zaluzhny, Drapaty, Marchenko (unfortunately - impossible) or even some of young gen colonels (95th assault, 72nd MB etc)
Your suggestions is alike to electing Yanukovich after disappointment in Yushenko.
Did Zaluzhny implement any changes after the gifting stolen grenades scandal? (Expect the same with robbing Ukraine by his friends)
Wasn't Zaluzhny's reaction to hearing advice from the US was to stop answering the phone? (Expect the same with advice on things he knows nothing about like economy)
Do you not understand the he faked his health issues (for his buddies as well) and left the country? (That's how much he cares for law, equality and honor)
What the fuck is wrong with people to want to be ruled by Zaluzhny. People welcoming those who will destroy them, I just can't get used to it.
Your combination of bad reading comprehension and condescension is really offputting. Why didn't your tell us your guess, oh you, overconfident idiot? You even resemble tupolev16 and that's never a good thing.
I have a small-scale (microcosm) example of military reform--actually naval reform--that occurred in the early part of the U.S. war in the Pacific during WWII. COMSUBPAC replaced almost en masse most of the commanding officers of their fleet boats within the first year of the war because these captains were too conservative (politically correct word for timid) in their war fighting. These skippers were replaced by a bunch of gun slingers, commissioned officers who during peacetime would be considered largely as misfits. Well we all know what happened after this. The U.S. submarine service destroyed nearly all of the Japanese merchant shipping and inter Japanese islands train ferries. Had the Pacific war not been terminated by Hiroshima & Nagasaki, by the Spring of 1946 the Japanese people would have entered the state of large-scale starvation. Actually 1946 brought the imminent threat of such starvation anyway that was prevented ultimately by the productivity of the American farmer.
Yes, armed forces can change in the middle of a fight brought about by exigent circumstances before change drives itself by desperate circumstances. BTW, how close is Ukraine to desperate circumstances?
c'mon, "UA" and "legal basis" in same sentence sound as funny as "Ru" and "anti-fascist".
Ze and Co can easily fire "uncomfortable and unfriendly" minister within a day or to renew in position judges or officials from Yanukovitch times despite the Law for lustration. so, please, dont use such funny arguments any more
That’s beyond ridiculous. They managed to “reassign” the prior commander and replace him with Syrsky. Syrsky had no problem bringing in all his own people and replacing whoever was there before.
" Syrsky has overruled the super-competent General Lutsenko (commander of the Donetsk Group), his ultra-competent deputies Fedosenko and Marchenko, his turbo-competent chief-of-staff Ledovyi, plus the hyper-competent commander of the Khortytsia Command, Hnatov, and his deputies…"
Also it's good that you spread it into the English speaking audience, this is no news and it's well known for the Ukrainians who follow the main Ukrainian channels such as Sternenko or Butusov.
Indeed. Criticism of Syrskiy or Zelenskyy or the general staff is nothing new for Ukrainians.
As a Ukrainian, I’m worried that Western media is spreading victorious narratives about Ukraine. Ukraine does need the criticism, and I can only hope this will create some pressure on its government and command staff to move ahead with the right reforms.
Hope you find the strength to disregard those idiots who call you names and continue with your excellent analysis.
I watch Sternenko's youtube channel with english subtitles since his videos tend to be shorter(its a pain tbh) than Butusov's who has long videos. Also read the english version of the Butusov's website and have the english translation feature on telegram for their channels but still it would be great if there is a video translation in English like the ones with Arestovich that are available on privateer station.
Advice from a Ukrainian: don’t listen to Arestovich. The guy is a textbook narcissist and will spew whatever sounds good at the moment. Ukrainians of all views begin to laugh uncontrollably when anybody refers to Arestovich.
Very true. But it's "funny" how when he was working for the Office of the President and lying about impending victories, everyone loved him, but when he ran away abroad and started telling mostly truth about the political and military situation, everyone hates him all of a sudden...
For my money, he is the most dangerous person in Ukrainian politics. If he ever gets to power, he will never let it go. The man is a textbook demagogue narcissist, and he is very good at it.
Algorithm will not show that to people that don`t search and know beforehand about this channels. Ukraine need big pure speaking bloggers that will spread the information west from the old border of the Warsaw pack.
Translate is not the way, neither is speaking only on Ukraine language.
I feel like in the West, for the majority of my friends/relatives that aren't immigrants from the USSR, the Ukraine war doesn't exist in their algorithms, even the "political junkies" might see something about it a couple times per month. Seems like the folks who care to know are already actively seeking the information on their own.
That is called micromanagment. Basically, these people are of the strong opinion that the outcome is better if they do something for 5 minutes than you do it in a hole day and are an expert in the field. Simply not working as you need to process the information first, to make proper decisions. Comes usually hand in hand with trust issues.
I have that currently as a boss. Works for small groups of people (10-14 people), but fails as soon as the organisation is becoming larger. In my opinion those people make excellent NCO's for running a squad or maybe a platoon. For everything above it is a catastrophe.
When people start invading into the space of an expert I always see that as confession that they are not an expert in anything at all themselves -- they cannot see how ridiculous it is for someone to jump in and think they can make decisions even before learning all the relevant inputs.
This has been mentioned before by another poster on one of Tom's substack posts--it's called rising to the level of incompetence. During the U.S. Civil War some competent brigade commanders rose to the level of incompetent division commanders ... to the level of incompetent (or merely mediocre) corp commanders ... to the level of army commander. I am thinking of Braxton Bragg, for example, and perhaps even Richard Ewell (as a mediocre corps commander). Of course Ewell had an impossible role in replacing the military superstar that Stonewall Jackson was. How to avoid promoting an individual to a level wherein he becomes incompetent is a problem found in nearly all human organizations, not just in the military. E.g., just look at U.S. politics! When in comes to national survival, then the selection of leaders for higher office becomes critically important.
I understand your POV re: loyalty. You are correct basically. Nonetheless, I included somewhat reluctantly politicians because, for example, the right sort of politician during wartime can be critical. E.g., FDR in WWII, Lincoln in the U.S. Civil War. [Jefferson Davis of the Confederacy was a disaster of a political leader IMHO.] What about the Ukraine war? Zelensky? Someone as an alternative? Hitler was a disaster to his country ... to Europe ... to the world particularly in regard to his interference in military decision-making. My late father, somewhat of an amateur historian himself and veteran of WWII in the North Atlantic (U.S.N.) and later in the Pacific off Okinawa, frequently referred to Hitler as one of the Allied cause's best allies (for his disastrous military decisions). Thus my insertion of (generally worthless) politicians into the mess of wartime incompetence.
This is called the Peter Principle. People who are competent get promoted to jobs that require different skills and abilities. If they are successful they get promoted again. At some point they reach a level where they are incompetent. They no longer get promoted and stay at that position. So the organization is largely run by incompetents.
Hope it's the number of readers (not complainers) that's growing? Much deserved (the former)!
> ….well, that is a moment when I’m starting to ask myself: why should I ‘return to’ - or ‘continue’, whichever way you like it - analysing and reporting about this war?
Because I'm sure there's a huge number of (silent) readers who really appreciate your (and Don's) insights! Please continue!
In the direction of Kurakhovo, due to the incompetence of one colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a criminal case was opened. I hope he will be imprisoned.
all officials major and lower will be punished even for smaller fckups. Colonels - very rarely - just if huge fckup happened. generals - whatever happens - never ever
He wanted to be a general (he was a brigade commander of one TRO brigade), he was given command of several battalions from other brigades in 3 days, there were very large losses. Communication between neighboring battalions would not have been established.
"Because, there, and then nowhere else but in the Pokrovsk area, it’s nobody less than Syrsky in person who has assumed the direct command of all the ZSU units."
Well, it is time that Saint Zelenski is taking command himself as was done before in basically the same region when Heeresgruppe A was taken under proper command - or so...
"Yesterday, I’ve - finally - earned myself the titles of ‘Russian troll’, ‘buffon’ (sic), ‘Marshal Bouffon’ (sic), and was declared for ‘absolutely clueless about arms, wars, and the Ukrainian arms industry’ in particular."
Don't take people seriously that behave like playing dodge ball back in ground school. Along the lines, you are either in my team, or I shoot at you.
Sadly the world has become such a place as was good explained by Matt Taibbi
>> and can then exercise an effective commmand in a battle against quantitatively and qualitatively superior enemy.
- Was there a battle? Or its enemy ran away as the Russians did when they saw the Leopard tanks during the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023?
But of course there was no battle. Indeed, there was no war in Syria the last 14 years. Nothing happened at all...
When the Russians fled near Kharkiv, ZSU advanced quickly. A similar advance happened in Kursk region.
And you see that the Russian army was able to break through and advance in the first days of the war against the unprepared ZSU, which it could not defeat in the following years.
Thus I see no wonder that the Syrian opposition advanced quickly when their enemies ran away. And the battle would have probably taken quite a different course if the opposition had to fight through 10 km deep minefields under FPV drones and heavy artillery fire.
Fact: for the CMO to cause the Assadists, Russians and the IRGC to ran away, it first had to defeat them. Indeed: to smash their chain of command in Aleppo, and overrun their fortified positions.
...and then it had to repeat that in Hama and then assault Homs before its enemies could recover from the first shock.
So, if you like, OK: 'there was no battle'. None at all... 🙄
Fact: both the Russian and Ukrainian armies successfully overran fortified positions when the enemy had no time to prepare. But compare how far the Russians got in Donbas through the 2014 LoC and Ukrainians in the counteroffensive of 2023.
Ru army is digging like mad. within days (sometimes - even hours) they build up fortifications in best traditions of Soviet Army and as it is advised in tactic books. maybe it is the only thing they do perfect.
ZSU, local UA authorities and other involved prefer to do nothing and to hope for a miracle. that's why there is almost no fortifications behind Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar etc. Waisted time, stolen billions... we have roads, flowers, Christmas trees instead.
When frontlines come closer, they begin hysterical construction of ineffective fortifications...
If i were responsible for fortifications, i would now been constructing those at Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka - Dobropillia - Shakhtarske line. steel, concrete, wood - 3, maybe 4 lines. with minefields etc.
Any sign of construction works there now?
Have you got millions of mines for your minefields?
We live in an age where people live in echo chambers, including inside their own souls, and any information which is dissonant or unpleasant is dismissed as disinformation and bearers of such information are trolls, fascists, Kremlin agents, whatever. There is no intellectual tolerance, no admission that different points of view may have something to them, and that we have to work to get at the truth, which may be elusive. Even bad news, however factual, is treated as some kind of disinformation.
I'm old enough to remember open and frank discussion of controversial issues like the Vietnam war, where people didn't agree, of course, but at least listened to each other. The idea that wise men might disagree about this or that was still alive.
Nowadays we don't even have facts we can agree about, or even agree that there is a such thing as facts independent of our own narratives.
It's alarming. It seems to me that we may be on the edge of some kind of societal collapse.
Certainly it WEAKENS us. Those who live in a fantasy world inside an echo chamber are basically helpless, and can never stand up against any real threat. You see it in this war -- our whole country basically got caught up in propaganda about Crimean beach parties and victory just around the corner and never took the challenge seriously enough to realize that we would have to make real sacrifices and allocate an order of magnitude more resources to this conflict to have any chance of winning it. With the result which we see now. I believe that when this is all over the Ukrainians will hate us more than they hate the Russians.
"The edge..." indeed.
Time for intolerance
Sorry I got to disagree with your well written post. I was in High School and College during the Vietnam war and we had the same pigheaded stubbornness -ARROGANCE- from those at the top. Just read 'The Best and the Brightest' or 'A Bright and Shining Lie' and you can see we had fools in Washington DC and The Pentagon. Yeah I was young but that was a televised war and I well remember the American death counts being released by MACV in Saigon. (Nobody tallied S Vietnamese death counts) You thought this SHIT would never end. Year after year. American pilots being paraded in the Hanoi streets.
Media was a bit better and questioned things.
But by an large they are 'embedded' now.
See you at the White House Press Dinner.
P.S. I use to read Izzy Stone's I. F. Stone's Weekly. Yup he was an old Red but he could cut through the bullshit. And there was plenty in the Good Ole Day's
P.S.S. Everyone was pushing for the 'Youth Vote' back in the 60's and 70's. If you are old enough to die for your country (18)...you are old enough to Vote.
The 'Youth Vote ' went to Nixon in 1972.
To get where we are today took a Team Effort.
I don't think we disagree, actually. Yes, the mistakes at the top were the same -- Vietnam was a total clusterfumble like all the wars since, including Ukraine -- a total failure to formulate and achieve goals worth the cost and destruction.
The difference is that SOCIETY had a vigorous debate about it, with the media applying critical thought and questioning what the government was doing. Diverse voices could be heard in the media. The My Lai Massacre got huge press coverage, and the Pentagon Papers were published in the NYT.
Fast forward to today, and no one debates anyone any more. The media acts like state media -- like Pravda in the USSR. Rather than publishing Assange's and Snowden's leaks of heinous government misconduct and lies, we put them in jail (or try to; compare how Daniel Ellsberg was treated).
Nyall Ferguson wrote that we are living in "Late Soviet America". I agree. I love the t-shirt I saw recently -- "Make Orwell Fiction Again".
I can't disagree with what you wrote.
You have a good point, sr. Thanks.
I would slightly shift the focus of your argument to something more systemic.
I think it isn’t really about, as you put it, “living in an age where people reside in echo chambers, including within their own souls, dismissing any dissonant or unpleasant information as disinformation and labeling its bearers as trolls, fascists, Kremlin agents, or whatever”; rather, i see this as a consequence about living in an era where social networks have handed a global "soapbox at Hyde Park Corner" to anyone, including (and unfortunately, the vast majority) those who blatantly ignore (both consciously, but, again, the vast majority unconsciously) EVERY rule of a proper debate.
When arguments are simply trashed away, cherrypicking is endemic, what kind of meaningful confrontation can there be? It devolves into an arrogant display of dogmatic (and, when contradicted, often violent) rhetoric—a confrontation reminiscent of clashes between rival football ultras.
The basic rules of proper debate are discarded in favor of worthless discussions between hollow repeaters of mainstream-media-spread PRBSs.
Take Syria as an example: today, the so-called “well-informed” can’t stop parroting the latest Kremlin-manufactured talking points, promptly amplified by our super-smart-oh-so-professional news outlets: “jihadist rebels,” “Syria will just become another Afghanistan no matter what,” or “poor Assad, he’s the lesser evil after all...”
" if I express critique for another of his incompetent decisions, then there are at least 14 Ukrainians living abroad, 5 Germans, 4 Swedes, 3 Britons, 2 US-Americans, 1 Italian, and 7 who-knows-who-else falling all over me"
This is your fault. By your (and especially Don's) writing you have attracted such audience.
An audience that goes through ecstasy every time you write about how Russia lost another million troops in their "useless" attacks. Now you are directly responsible for intruding on these people's emotional well being.
And you are one of those or what brought you here? Or was it just sarcasm?
It saddens me to read this. All I can say the best I can do, for what I write, is to remind myself I can't change anyone's opinion. I can change what's going on. All I can do is point out what I see, that others might see, so they, I, don't believe I'm stupid or insane. Even if what we see is wrong. That we see a falsehood is not false in itself. Anyway, reading you makes me feel less insane. And I believe, in a way, this stuff does eventually make it into decision making. But never in a way it can be traced. Ah "faith" an idea that follows mankind around taunting him, crushing him, sometimes a moment of optimism.
Spot the Freudian slip.
Syrsky taking over command of a Donestk sector, of the long Ukrainian front line? Seriously that is "Soviet/Russian level command and control prestige games" PLUS other historical wartime scenarios which have been found ineffective in the long run and context in today's war situation(command and control, weapons, tactical and strategic means/aims, etc) not 18th century warlordism.
Espero que los pagos que te hacen los servicios de inteligencia alrededor del mundo, estén debidamente incluidos en tu declaración de impuestos. En segundo lugar, aunque creo que dar un pronostico a largo plazo no es de tu gusto, que nos puedes decir que le espera a Ucrania en el futuro inmediato?
Con respecto a Siria, Libano, Gaza, Hezbolla, Iran, Turquia e Israel, que crees que pasará? Un eterno presente de operaciones militares de baja intensidad para justificar la presencia de Netanyahoo.com y otros al mando de Israel?
1.) You do not really expect me to report all the millions I'm earning from working for 50+ different intelligence services to be reported to the tax authorities? I mean, if every decent oligarch and/CEO can excel in tax-avoidance, why can't I?
2.) Ukraine is going to continue losing because it's government is disuniting the nation (indeed: short of ripping it apart), and because the command of its armed forces is incompetent. Unless that changes, it's almost pointless to go into bigger discussions of what's going on around the battlefield.
3.) Israel, Türkey, and USA are going to do their best to rip Syria apart again. Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia will try to get their 'slice of the cake', of course.
😂
👌🏻😉
Ugh! Even more depression is induced in me wrt 2.). What I gather is that Ukraine is still Ukraine right now due to the massive incompetence of Putin, the Russian Genstab, etc. "Special Military Operation." Aside from Russian massive incompetence the Ukrainians are defeating themselves and threatening their own independence for the reasons that you have adduced through multiple Substack posts. Ugh! Ugh! UGH! :(
Perhaps the Ukrainian leadership should import advisors from al-Jolani's boys on how to prosecute a real & effective Ukrainian SMO of their own devising! [wishful thinking & mild sarcasm on my part--after all, I'm only an amateur at this. **LOL**]
The Russians are not that incompetent.
It is simply that modern states and armies are incredibly resilient. Something like Rocky Balboa, take a beating and ask for more.
Syria was a wreak for 10 years yet it still stood în the field against Israel attacks, US sanctions, Kurdish separatism, Sunni revolts and Turkish land grabbing.
Ukraine has no such pressure and receives huge support from US and EU. It would require insane levels of stupidity to crash into a collapse.
"Point is this: don’t worry, Syrsky didn’t fire even one of them. They’re all good buddies and thus he can’t do such things". This is not because they are buddies, there is currently no legal basis to do this as far as I know.
Ah, there is no legal basis for Syrsky to fire subordinates he's appointed, but have proven themselves so incompetent, he now has to do their job?
Well, mate: sorry if I conclude that Ukraine is doomed to lose this war.
Long live Saint Zelensky...
it's not like no one understands that reforms are needed, but it's really difficult to do it in peace time and "forget about it" during the war times. But yes, chances for a miracle are slim.
This is a popular but idiotic opinion. It's just an excuse.
"Its hard to go to the hospital when you're well and even harder when you're sick, therefore medicine is impossible, I'll just lie down and wait for a miracle".
in case of political will - it is no problem at all. especially in war times. but there is none.
Syrsky is totally incompetent, same - his buddies in GSU. Ze is totally incompetent, same - his buddies in Administration, Verkhovna Rada and government.
I would prefer a junta management now, headed by anyone like Zaluzhny, Drapaty, Marchenko (unfortunately - impossible) or even some of young gen colonels (95th assault, 72nd MB etc)
Your suggestions is alike to electing Yanukovich after disappointment in Yushenko.
Did Zaluzhny implement any changes after the gifting stolen grenades scandal? (Expect the same with robbing Ukraine by his friends)
Wasn't Zaluzhny's reaction to hearing advice from the US was to stop answering the phone? (Expect the same with advice on things he knows nothing about like economy)
Do you not understand the he faked his health issues (for his buddies as well) and left the country? (That's how much he cares for law, equality and honor)
What the fuck is wrong with people to want to be ruled by Zaluzhny. People welcoming those who will destroy them, I just can't get used to it.
I will tell you a secret: none GS in the world is not responsible for procurements. that's competence of MoD
US sometimes advise bshitz, like now to recruit 18yo guys. is there any need to follow thier advise?
and, please, dont manipulate my message: i've written some other names there, but you try to discuss Za only. what about others?
may i ask Your opinion for best possible candidate? Ze, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko? let me guess))
Your combination of bad reading comprehension and condescension is really offputting. Why didn't your tell us your guess, oh you, overconfident idiot? You even resemble tupolev16 and that's never a good thing.
Actually the opposite. During wartime is when reform is most urgent and normally carried out.
I have a small-scale (microcosm) example of military reform--actually naval reform--that occurred in the early part of the U.S. war in the Pacific during WWII. COMSUBPAC replaced almost en masse most of the commanding officers of their fleet boats within the first year of the war because these captains were too conservative (politically correct word for timid) in their war fighting. These skippers were replaced by a bunch of gun slingers, commissioned officers who during peacetime would be considered largely as misfits. Well we all know what happened after this. The U.S. submarine service destroyed nearly all of the Japanese merchant shipping and inter Japanese islands train ferries. Had the Pacific war not been terminated by Hiroshima & Nagasaki, by the Spring of 1946 the Japanese people would have entered the state of large-scale starvation. Actually 1946 brought the imminent threat of such starvation anyway that was prevented ultimately by the productivity of the American farmer.
Yes, armed forces can change in the middle of a fight brought about by exigent circumstances before change drives itself by desperate circumstances. BTW, how close is Ukraine to desperate circumstances?
I think war time should be a good opportunity for implementing changes. Simply because needs drives.
c'mon, "UA" and "legal basis" in same sentence sound as funny as "Ru" and "anti-fascist".
Ze and Co can easily fire "uncomfortable and unfriendly" minister within a day or to renew in position judges or officials from Yanukovitch times despite the Law for lustration. so, please, dont use such funny arguments any more
That’s beyond ridiculous. They managed to “reassign” the prior commander and replace him with Syrsky. Syrsky had no problem bringing in all his own people and replacing whoever was there before.
He does not have to fire them, just promote them to be major general of some remote pig farm in case there are no conveniet windows
I think in most armies if your superior fires you you have to leave your post. Same for most organizations really.
" Syrsky has overruled the super-competent General Lutsenko (commander of the Donetsk Group), his ultra-competent deputies Fedosenko and Marchenko, his turbo-competent chief-of-staff Ledovyi, plus the hyper-competent commander of the Khortytsia Command, Hnatov, and his deputies…"
Also it's good that you spread it into the English speaking audience, this is no news and it's well known for the Ukrainians who follow the main Ukrainian channels such as Sternenko or Butusov.
I'm only sorry I'm so busy with Syria - and thus much slower than either Butusov or Sternenko.
Indeed. Criticism of Syrskiy or Zelenskyy or the general staff is nothing new for Ukrainians.
As a Ukrainian, I’m worried that Western media is spreading victorious narratives about Ukraine. Ukraine does need the criticism, and I can only hope this will create some pressure on its government and command staff to move ahead with the right reforms.
Hope you find the strength to disregard those idiots who call you names and continue with your excellent analysis.
Butusov and Sternenko need to produce more english content
Google translate is available for anyone who cares to look. Problem is, few people care to look...
I watch Sternenko's youtube channel with english subtitles since his videos tend to be shorter(its a pain tbh) than Butusov's who has long videos. Also read the english version of the Butusov's website and have the english translation feature on telegram for their channels but still it would be great if there is a video translation in English like the ones with Arestovich that are available on privateer station.
Advice from a Ukrainian: don’t listen to Arestovich. The guy is a textbook narcissist and will spew whatever sounds good at the moment. Ukrainians of all views begin to laugh uncontrollably when anybody refers to Arestovich.
Very true. But it's "funny" how when he was working for the Office of the President and lying about impending victories, everyone loved him, but when he ran away abroad and started telling mostly truth about the political and military situation, everyone hates him all of a sudden...
For my money, he is the most dangerous person in Ukrainian politics. If he ever gets to power, he will never let it go. The man is a textbook demagogue narcissist, and he is very good at it.
Oh I dont like him at all. I dont listen to him though I'm aware he has an english version available on Youtube. But thank you for the reminder.
Algorithm will not show that to people that don`t search and know beforehand about this channels. Ukraine need big pure speaking bloggers that will spread the information west from the old border of the Warsaw pack.
Translate is not the way, neither is speaking only on Ukraine language.
I feel like in the West, for the majority of my friends/relatives that aren't immigrants from the USSR, the Ukraine war doesn't exist in their algorithms, even the "political junkies" might see something about it a couple times per month. Seems like the folks who care to know are already actively seeking the information on their own.
Thanks Tom. For what purpose did Syrsky take command of the Pokrovsky sector? Decided to play the role of Caesar in the Battle of Munda?
Because in minds of such great people like Syrsky, only they are clever and can.
Everybody else is stupid.
Is karma.
I pray for Saint Zelensky to save good ol' Soviet traditions...
That is called micromanagment. Basically, these people are of the strong opinion that the outcome is better if they do something for 5 minutes than you do it in a hole day and are an expert in the field. Simply not working as you need to process the information first, to make proper decisions. Comes usually hand in hand with trust issues.
I have that currently as a boss. Works for small groups of people (10-14 people), but fails as soon as the organisation is becoming larger. In my opinion those people make excellent NCO's for running a squad or maybe a platoon. For everything above it is a catastrophe.
When people start invading into the space of an expert I always see that as confession that they are not an expert in anything at all themselves -- they cannot see how ridiculous it is for someone to jump in and think they can make decisions even before learning all the relevant inputs.
Now they don't. It is called the Dunning Kruger effect - quite well researched.
This has been mentioned before by another poster on one of Tom's substack posts--it's called rising to the level of incompetence. During the U.S. Civil War some competent brigade commanders rose to the level of incompetent division commanders ... to the level of incompetent (or merely mediocre) corp commanders ... to the level of army commander. I am thinking of Braxton Bragg, for example, and perhaps even Richard Ewell (as a mediocre corps commander). Of course Ewell had an impossible role in replacing the military superstar that Stonewall Jackson was. How to avoid promoting an individual to a level wherein he becomes incompetent is a problem found in nearly all human organizations, not just in the military. E.g., just look at U.S. politics! When in comes to national survival, then the selection of leaders for higher office becomes critically important.
I wouldn't compare that to politics as there currently promotion is done based on loyalty to your donors.
Otherwise, yes, you are right. It was always a challenge and will always be.
I understand your POV re: loyalty. You are correct basically. Nonetheless, I included somewhat reluctantly politicians because, for example, the right sort of politician during wartime can be critical. E.g., FDR in WWII, Lincoln in the U.S. Civil War. [Jefferson Davis of the Confederacy was a disaster of a political leader IMHO.] What about the Ukraine war? Zelensky? Someone as an alternative? Hitler was a disaster to his country ... to Europe ... to the world particularly in regard to his interference in military decision-making. My late father, somewhat of an amateur historian himself and veteran of WWII in the North Atlantic (U.S.N.) and later in the Pacific off Okinawa, frequently referred to Hitler as one of the Allied cause's best allies (for his disastrous military decisions). Thus my insertion of (generally worthless) politicians into the mess of wartime incompetence.
Politicians get elected and not promoted. There is quite a difference in that procedure and the skillset is also quite different.
But promoted by partys, if even go to elecctions better for all
This is called the Peter Principle. People who are competent get promoted to jobs that require different skills and abilities. If they are successful they get promoted again. At some point they reach a level where they are incompetent. They no longer get promoted and stay at that position. So the organization is largely run by incompetents.
> a constantly growing number of readers
Hope it's the number of readers (not complainers) that's growing? Much deserved (the former)!
> ….well, that is a moment when I’m starting to ask myself: why should I ‘return to’ - or ‘continue’, whichever way you like it - analysing and reporting about this war?
Because I'm sure there's a huge number of (silent) readers who really appreciate your (and Don's) insights! Please continue!
Thank you
Russian troll? You? Some people are utter window licking imbeciles!!!
In the direction of Kurakhovo, due to the incompetence of one colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a criminal case was opened. I hope he will be imprisoned.
A colonel?
Sure.
If he would have been a general: no way.
all officials major and lower will be punished even for smaller fckups. Colonels - very rarely - just if huge fckup happened. generals - whatever happens - never ever
He wanted to be a general (he was a brigade commander of one TRO brigade), he was given command of several battalions from other brigades in 3 days, there were very large losses. Communication between neighboring battalions would not have been established.
❤️🩹❣️ mir blutet das herz... von solchen posts 😔
* als (Sofa-)Laie aus München kann ich den Syrskij nicht beurteilen aber den zelensky 💩 schon... 🤮
Glauben Sie, bitte, ja nicht dass es mir 'Spaß macht' derartige Schlussfolgerungen zu ziehen.
tu ich und hatte keine zweifel dsbzgl.
es ist nur sehr schmerzlich zu lesen und zu verarbeiten
Danke dir Tom
🤝
"Because, there, and then nowhere else but in the Pokrovsk area, it’s nobody less than Syrsky in person who has assumed the direct command of all the ZSU units."
Well, it is time that Saint Zelenski is taking command himself as was done before in basically the same region when Heeresgruppe A was taken under proper command - or so...
"Yesterday, I’ve - finally - earned myself the titles of ‘Russian troll’, ‘buffon’ (sic), ‘Marshal Bouffon’ (sic), and was declared for ‘absolutely clueless about arms, wars, and the Ukrainian arms industry’ in particular."
Don't take people seriously that behave like playing dodge ball back in ground school. Along the lines, you are either in my team, or I shoot at you.
Sadly the world has become such a place as was good explained by Matt Taibbi