Ukraine War, 11 December 2024
Hello everybody!
Yesterday, I’ve - finally - earned myself the titles of ‘Russian troll’, ‘buffon’ (sic), ‘Marshal Bouffon’ (sic), and was declared for ‘absolutely clueless about arms, wars, and the Ukrainian arms industry’ in particular.
On its own: I’m - honestly - proud of such an achievement and this kind of accolades. After sweeping tears from the corners of my eyes, I herewith solemnly swear: I’m going to wear them with pride and honour.
Of course, deniers are going to point out I’ve got used to this kind of behaviour already well before there was any kind of war (well, at least in sense of ‘armed conflict’) in Ukraine, some 25 or so years ago. After all, I’m well-known as ‘contradictory’, ‘spreading fake news’, that I’m a ‘spie’ working for 50+ intelligence agencies and a ‘jihadist supporter’, and ‘anti-Semitic’ (and so many other things), and it’s certain that I can analyse any other-, but, neither analyse nor understand and explain wars like those between Arabs and Israel, or this one in Ukraine: dozens of anonymous social media accounts - plus a number of British and Russian plagiators, few IRGC-shills, and every decent Zionist - have confirmed this beyond belief over the years.
However, when I try to ‘return’ to my (for nearly three years, meanwhile) ‘usual’ analysis of the War in Ukraine, and then promptly read messages from my contacts in the ZSU about yet another screw up by both the GenStab-U and its top commander responsible for the situation in the Pokrovsk area, and how it’s not the Russian quantitative superiority (especially no ‘lack of troops’), but systemic mismanagement and incompetence of Ukrainian generals that is to blame… i.e. all the things I’ve assessed and reported starting already in January 2023, and then dozens (if not hundreds) of times ever since… only to start collecting complaints from a constantly growing number of readers about ‘always reporting the same about the Ukrainian military incompetence’ and similar…
….well, that is a moment when I’m starting to ask myself: why should I ‘return to’ - or ‘continue’, whichever way you like it - analysing and reporting about this war?
Really: what’s the point of yet another report about how the Brigade XY lost the position YZ - and not only the position YZ, but also a number of good Ukrainian troops - and the Russians thus advanced another 238 metres?
That the Russians lost 71 troops this time, no 58, like the last time?
Oh, how wonderful…
At this point in time, I’m this short >< of requesting everybody interested to, please, be so kind and ‘wake me up’ only once anything at all changes in the ZSU.
***
Never mind. It’s a matter of fact that I’m incompetent and unimportant. Thus, lets take care about what does matter and is important. Like the developments on the battlefield.
Because, there, and then nowhere else but in the Pokrovsk area, it’s nobody less than Syrsky in person who has assumed the direct command of all the ZSU units.
Yes, yes, this also means that now it’s ‘official’ that Syrsky has overruled the super-competent General Lutsenko (commander of the Donetsk Group), his ultra-competent deputies Fedosenko and Marchenko, his turbo-competent chief-of-staff Ledovyi, plus the hyper-competent commander of the Khortytsia Command, Hnatov, and his deputies…
Meh, it’s pointless to continue listing all the generals overruled by Syrisky with a single decision. Point is this: don’t worry, Syrsky didn’t fire even one of them. They’re all good buddies and thus he can’t do such things, nor reform the ZSU, and even less so its ground forces. And even if: why care about such unimportant things like Syrsky’s incompetent buddies? What is important is that now everything is going to become much, much better… and that instantly.
Blessed whoever believes this.
Alternatively, you could do the same like me, and wonder: if he’s really as skilled as to actually deserve this position, then how comes it takes the COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF of ALL the Ukrainian Armed Forces to assume the direct command of a certain sector of the battlefield? By side that’s not the least his job, but: why isn’t he firing the proven incompetents and appointing people with proven skills instead? Is Syrsky really determined to convert the entire ZSU into another Russian bardak on Saturday evening…? Are they all really this irresponsible?
We’re going to discuss the answers in the usual Ukrainian fashion. See: after the war…
***
The ‘nail in the coffin’ of my consideration of whether I should, or not write this today, was delivered by a request from a Ukrainian journalist for an interview to discuss what kind of arms the ZSU needs for the next year…
My dear… (I’ll skip the name) … the sad fact is: even if the USA would, in the next five minutes, hand over all the equipment and ammunition of the US Army to Ukraine, as long as Syrsky and his buddies remain in their current positions, under their command, the ZSU couldn’t win even the battle for one place in the public toilet in the Rue des Morillons….
Because… well, it’s kind of unavoidable to conclude that the ‘Türkiye-controlled, ‘al-Qaeda-affiliated’, ‘ISIS in Syria’ - the HTS (because it doesn’t matter the same is a part of a coalition of at least 4, later 13, meanwhile 40+ different insurgent factions) - can reform, can re-organise its chain of command, can re-train all of its troops, can appoint skilled commanders, and can then exercise an effective commmand in a battle against quantitatively and qualitatively superior enemy. Just Ukraine under Zelensky, and the ZSU under Syrsky - can not.
***
Which is bringing me to the Ukrainian President. Where I cannot but offer my most humble apology for failing to address him properly. I’ll correct this immediately. Henceforth it will be: Saint Zelensky.
Why ‘Saint’?
Because he’s so holly, so super, and so much a fluffy pink bunny, that if I express critique for another of his incompetent decisions, then there are at least 14 Ukrainians living abroad, 5 Germans, 4 Swedes, 3 Britons, 2 US-Americans, 1 Italian, and 7 who-knows-who-else falling all over me, and calling me names. Because my critique for Zelensky has earned me the honorary title of a Russian troll.
Obviously, and whether they know it or not (most likely not at all), but the people in question are convinced the situation in Ukraine is meanwhile resembling that of Egypt during the last few years of Mubarak’s regime: when Mubarak explained (in the public, i.e. in the Egyptian parliament) he can’t appoint anybody for a vice-president, because there’s nobody in Egypt clever enough to do the job.
I only can’t decide what shall I do with another 5-6 different Ukrainians that are, every single day, sending me messages and e-mails complaining about Zelensky- and Syrsky’s incompetence, about corruption in Ukraine getting back to where it was under Yanukovich, about them losing all the hope of winning this war if the two incompetents at the top are not replaced, about others stressing they’re meanwhile so scared of Zelensky’s local authorities arresting and disappearing them, that they do not even dare going to public protests, and about the two jerks systemically disuniting and demoralising the entire Ukrainian society through mobilising only the poor and underprivileged citizens, while mafia gangs are shooting at each other in night clubs of Kyiv?
I think the solution is obvious: I should block all such liars, and move their messages straight into the spam folder. Because Saint Zelensky can’t do any wrong, and there’s no other Ukrainian clever enough to do his job.
….even when that’s consisting of little else but rushing to Paris to lick Trump’s boots and take another bunch of selfies. Believe in his fans and believe in Saint Zelensky: nobody could do that better.
***
But hey: let me end this one with some good news. Sorry: no good news, but great news. Indeed: fantastic news.
You see, Saint Zelensky - i.e. his administration - which first didn’t pay the Ukrainian arms industry for months, then did pay something like a third of what is due - is now ‘seriously considering’ granting that industry the right to start exporting arms abroad.
Of course, I’m entirely clueless about the Ukrainian arms industry, people knowing far better have nicely explained me that it’s pistols calibre 9mm are going to win the war, and then: taking such decisions like letting the industry export is such an extremely complex process that it’s going to take the Buddies in Kyiv few months to say ‘da’.
…after cashing a few fat bribes and, more likely, the media and the public are going to forget about this topic and then no decision will be necessary.
As said: good news.
There are better news, too. Syrsky couldn’t bring that decision about assuming direct command over the Pokrovsk sector at any better point in time: that’s going to keep him so busy, that ZSU commanders in others sectors can further expand their autonomy. Means, they’re going to operate much more effectively. Is of importance because RUMINT has it, the chieftain of the Keystone Cops in Moscow, Gerasimov has ordered a complete recovery of the Ukrainian-controlled bulge in the Kursk Oblast by 5 January.
Also, the ZSU has destroyed the first of North Korean-made Bulsae-4 multiple missile launchers (Experten cannot yet figure out why by an FPV, and not by pistols, though…)
Elsewhere, there are simply great news. For example, Syrisky didn’t manage to lose Kupyansk. Arguably, it’s perfectly possible that he misunderstood something about ‘that’ with red arrows and blue positions on his maps, but that doesn’t matter.
What does matter is that the local ZSU brigade-commanders responsible for the forgotten sectors in the south-east have (largely) managed to sort out the chaos created by Syrsky patching up their lines with a myriad of battalions drawn from brigades deployed on the opposite side of the battlefield (if not the opposite side of Ukraine). That, plus the systemic incompetence of the Keystone Cops in Moscow, are the primary reasons why - yes, I’ll shamelessly admit: to my great surprise - Kurakhove is still under Ukrainian control. Velyka Novoselivka, too.
Told you so: simply fantastic news… At least for a week longer.
We live in an age where people live in echo chambers, including inside their own souls, and any information which is dissonant or unpleasant is dismissed as disinformation and bearers of such information are trolls, fascists, Kremlin agents, whatever. There is no intellectual tolerance, no admission that different points of view may have something to them, and that we have to work to get at the truth, which may be elusive. Even bad news, however factual, is treated as some kind of disinformation.
I'm old enough to remember open and frank discussion of controversial issues like the Vietnam war, where people didn't agree, of course, but at least listened to each other. The idea that wise men might disagree about this or that was still alive.
Nowadays we don't even have facts we can agree about, or even agree that there is a such thing as facts independent of our own narratives.
It's alarming. It seems to me that we may be on the edge of some kind of societal collapse.
Certainly it WEAKENS us. Those who live in a fantasy world inside an echo chamber are basically helpless, and can never stand up against any real threat. You see it in this war -- our whole country basically got caught up in propaganda about Crimean beach parties and victory just around the corner and never took the challenge seriously enough to realize that we would have to make real sacrifices and allocate an order of magnitude more resources to this conflict to have any chance of winning it. With the result which we see now. I believe that when this is all over the Ukrainians will hate us more than they hate the Russians.
" if I express critique for another of his incompetent decisions, then there are at least 14 Ukrainians living abroad, 5 Germans, 4 Swedes, 3 Britons, 2 US-Americans, 1 Italian, and 7 who-knows-who-else falling all over me"
This is your fault. By your (and especially Don's) writing you have attracted such audience.
An audience that goes through ecstasy every time you write about how Russia lost another million troops in their "useless" attacks. Now you are directly responsible for intruding on these people's emotional well being.