Thanks for the update, including the analysis of the Russian troops moved. Their success in stopping Ukraine remains to be seen. It depends of course on how many units the Ukrainians has there, what goals they have and so on. But I guess that the conclusion that this is not enough and that more troops will follow. Also, while they can probably build some defensive line some 30 km behind where the figthing goes on attacking and retaking areas is another question. But its good WarGonzo Findus an honest Brit fearing officer, otherwise we wouldnt know who was behind this dastardly attack! (The smell of tea and maybe the sound of bagpipes should be a Dead give away, but given the state of these troops maybe thats not enough. But an hinest Expert, now that is good.
If Ukraine has the resources, would it not be wise to launch similar "British Style" incursions and lesser raids (let's call them "Canadian") that appear as incursion every few days to lesser defended points of interest while the adversaries resources are diverted and en route to differing engagement zones?
- The VKF attacks look very "restrained" to me, considering the size of the attacking force and that there are no strong VSRF ground forces against the ZSU there. There were "news" (as I can't tell how real those were) that the ZSU has improved their EW against russian drones over and around their mobil forces. Can it be that it is that effective that the VKF simply missing their spotters (mostly)?
- I saw that Iskander strike video - isn't it an overkill to use a ballistic missile against a (claimed) forward command post? Does it mean that these missiles are THE weapons, available around? (at least now and hopefully for a while)?
It's likely Russia simply has no better option against targets than expending Iskanders. Ideally these would be hit by long-range MLRS but general perfomance of Uragan, Tornado and Smerch seems to leave a lot to be desired, or by cruise missiles of which they don't have much in stock, so its better to use Iskander which hits fast and is hard to intercept.
Iskander usually has no problems in breaking thru Patriot coverage. Looks like the target was too sexy to let it go. Iskander production surged several times but surely not that much to hit secondary targets.
Guyevo is about 3-10 km behind the edge of the ZSU incursion (depending on which map and report you count). Anything larger than a 120mm mortar would have been enough to hit a static building at this distance, it didn't require long range or special munition. To me it seems that there were nothing cheaper around, or - it can be more likely - they got a very juicy fresh info and the Iskander was the fastest response to hit a given coordinate., everything else would have required more time.
That Russian officer that so unmistakably recognized Perfidious Albion at work is Putin's Chechen Apti Alaudinov. commander of Aida Akhmat unit, that ran away at the start of operation for Sudzha
Ask any Russian and they'll tell you that Ukrainians (Khokhli) are too mentally challenged to mount an offensive, so it has to be the British, Americans, nato, whatever.
It looks that Don is getting the unpleasant part of the work - to write about Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar while we are all looking for ZSU to liberate Voronezh and Tula in the coming couple of days.
He's simply doing his part of the work, me mine. And then there are going to be other people, doing their part.
Nobody knows - nor can know - everything, nobody can do everything, and there's no need to pretend anything of that kind.
Besides, in this entire week, the only area where the RUssians managed some kind of minor advance was the Pokrovsk-Avdiivka sector. Everywhere else, they either completely stopped attacking (and that since 7 August), or achieved nothing. No surprise, considering how many of their reserves were meanwhile withdrawn.
Actually, if there are lessons from eastern Kharkiv, Kherson, and now Kursk then that as soon as the Russians are confronted with a situation they didn't expect: thing's are rapidly going downhill for them.
ParanoidNow just might have meant the section where there could be bad news. At least that was my fear of the news elsewhere. But let me also take the opportunity to say that I certainly think adding more people to this team is very good and adds to the high quality of the blog.
Here in Britain it’s common knowledge that if you put the kettle on, someone will instantly just pop round unexpectedly, allowing you to ask if they want a cup of tea because ‘I’ve just put the kettle on’.
Clearly this was caused by the Rus…er Orcs who clearly ‘just popped the kettle on’ without expecting a British style ‘popping in’. And clearly tea was not offered, which is the root cause of all this mayhem. It’s damn rude, what did they expect?
This action seems to have potential to be a game changer. Till now Ukraine had in fact much longer defense line than Russia. Now Russia is pushed to defense their borders too (as UA have to since the very beginning). Suddenly the biggest inequality is gone... The biggest red line crossed, I have been saying for two years that there is no reason to be afraid of crossing it, they are bluffing with the threat of nuclear weapons, 100% sure... because nuclear weapons is the red line for whole world. The real red line. And they know it.
Tom, curious if the extended incursion into Kursk has any implications for the pathing of penetrating air attacks through newly opened radar-suppressed corridors. Does this give Ukrainian drones/missiles some new attack vectors?
An interesting observation regarding the past week's activities is that the ZSU has in fact moved away from its historical 'Soviet doctrine' disability, and it's now fine-tuning a very effective doctrine of tactical envelopment which basically involves the establishment of kill blocks in tactical bounds along the main axis of advance, while maintaining constant momentum in the advance-to-combat phase until reaching the desired objective (whatever that may be as determined by Kyiv). Is this a new tactical doctrine, and which one of the Ukraine partner nations trained the ZSU in this 'new' style of combat?
So, deliberately not explaining how this very effective doctrine is executed at the tactical level, all I can say is the last time I saw this style of warfare was in southern Angola circa 1987-89 when outnumber SADF mechanized infantry [wheeled] battalions destroyed modern Soviet equipped, trained and advised FAPLA and Cuban Brigades in a matter of days in the African savannah. The genius behind this decision is that the ZSU knows that RU is obsessively designed to counter NATO forces and their respective combat doctrines and TTP's (Russia's primary achilles heel), why it makes totally sense to implement a previously tried and tested [and nearly forgotten] mobile warfare doctrine never used by any NATO member state ever. Well done Ukraine. Unfortunately the hard part starts now.
I think they are grabbing their pop corn and watching closely. From their point of view there are almost no downsides to any result. Russia loosing troops etc? Fine, lets put more pressure on them when negotating. Ukraine winning? Fine Eu and Us are occupied and we can trade with Ukraine. They might be in the market for drones? Point is China isnt a friend to any of the combattants and will maximise its own outcome anyhow.
Officially, Xi and Poo declared unlimited friendship, so it is a bit strange. Probably Russia has assured its allies there is nothing serious. So far, the only reaction was from Belarus. Or China's interests are shifting. Or else - and that could be bad, another kind of escalation.
After the first half year it was clear that no Taiwan for them. So by now, the more Russia loses on this the better it is for them: it'll be just easier to gobble them up later.
I read this, and Kuleba's 3-hour robust conversation with Yi, to be China understanding that it can't achieve its desired outcome anymore; things are unfolding with their own momentum. All of their support for Russia was to keep Putin in power; I see them as not believing it possible any more and they are now in damage control.
Excellent detail and work as always Tom 👍
Particularly around all those 'British signature' tactics. Like 'cups of tea' and 'flags'
We have always excelled at 'a spot of bother at the border' 😎
What about bagpipes? A proper British attack without Scotsman?
I don't know. The deployment of bagpipes AND Scotsmen might be considered 'unsporting'. Red lines and all that 🤷🏼♂️.
Point. Cant be unsporting.
Thin Red Lines, ha ha
Playing Bagpipes is against the Geneva conventions. Crime against humanity or something like that…..
Wait a second, you mean that a surprise offensive is going better than when they published a trailer for previous one?
Thanks for the update, including the analysis of the Russian troops moved. Their success in stopping Ukraine remains to be seen. It depends of course on how many units the Ukrainians has there, what goals they have and so on. But I guess that the conclusion that this is not enough and that more troops will follow. Also, while they can probably build some defensive line some 30 km behind where the figthing goes on attacking and retaking areas is another question. But its good WarGonzo Findus an honest Brit fearing officer, otherwise we wouldnt know who was behind this dastardly attack! (The smell of tea and maybe the sound of bagpipes should be a Dead give away, but given the state of these troops maybe thats not enough. But an hinest Expert, now that is good.
If Ukraine has the resources, would it not be wise to launch similar "British Style" incursions and lesser raids (let's call them "Canadian") that appear as incursion every few days to lesser defended points of interest while the adversaries resources are diverted and en route to differing engagement zones?
Minefields and ATGMs. Breaking through the border still requires quite some force.
See Normandy for Canadian method. Out of ocean up beaches in fire up hills at walled machine gun turrets. Successfully.
thank you for the update!
- The VKF attacks look very "restrained" to me, considering the size of the attacking force and that there are no strong VSRF ground forces against the ZSU there. There were "news" (as I can't tell how real those were) that the ZSU has improved their EW against russian drones over and around their mobil forces. Can it be that it is that effective that the VKF simply missing their spotters (mostly)?
- I saw that Iskander strike video - isn't it an overkill to use a ballistic missile against a (claimed) forward command post? Does it mean that these missiles are THE weapons, available around? (at least now and hopefully for a while)?
Overkill is also kill? But I agree with you assessment.
It's likely Russia simply has no better option against targets than expending Iskanders. Ideally these would be hit by long-range MLRS but general perfomance of Uragan, Tornado and Smerch seems to leave a lot to be desired, or by cruise missiles of which they don't have much in stock, so its better to use Iskander which hits fast and is hard to intercept.
Do not forget that the area is covered by the Patriots that were put forward (btw, one battery was recently destroyed according to RU MoD, let's wait for any evidence. ) https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/08/11/three-patriot-launchers-and-an-mpq-65-radar-destroyed-in-24-hours/ .
Iskander usually has no problems in breaking thru Patriot coverage. Looks like the target was too sexy to let it go. Iskander production surged several times but surely not that much to hit secondary targets.
Tornado guided munition is also used,
yesterday UA column was hit:
https://t.me/infomil_live/8856
However, my personal guess, the production rate of it is still to be increased.
а сармат используется?
Guyevo is about 3-10 km behind the edge of the ZSU incursion (depending on which map and report you count). Anything larger than a 120mm mortar would have been enough to hit a static building at this distance, it didn't require long range or special munition. To me it seems that there were nothing cheaper around, or - it can be more likely - they got a very juicy fresh info and the Iskander was the fastest response to hit a given coordinate., everything else would have required more time.
Did Tom Cooper mention the drone attack on the Lipetsk airfield? Or I missed this.
https://substack.com/@xxtomcooperxx/p-147511408
Thanks
That Russian officer that so unmistakably recognized Perfidious Albion at work is Putin's Chechen Apti Alaudinov. commander of Aida Akhmat unit, that ran away at the start of operation for Sudzha
Ask any Russian and they'll tell you that Ukrainians (Khokhli) are too mentally challenged to mount an offensive, so it has to be the British, Americans, nato, whatever.
Eternally smug Russian rich people
The opposite of a socialist revolution
Thanks Tom!
1. You mentioned that the ruzzians are losing ground in North Kharkiv - any details?
2. What about the village of Poroz in Belgorod (Peoples Republic of)? Was that just a raid?
Specifically: they're losing ground in Vovchansk.
Poroz: no idea. Got no contacts there.
Thanks
It looks that Don is getting the unpleasant part of the work - to write about Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar while we are all looking for ZSU to liberate Voronezh and Tula in the coming couple of days.
I think they mentioned a third person to join, so maybe that is the task of the new kid on the team?
'Unpleasant part'? Why?
He's simply doing his part of the work, me mine. And then there are going to be other people, doing their part.
Nobody knows - nor can know - everything, nobody can do everything, and there's no need to pretend anything of that kind.
Besides, in this entire week, the only area where the RUssians managed some kind of minor advance was the Pokrovsk-Avdiivka sector. Everywhere else, they either completely stopped attacking (and that since 7 August), or achieved nothing. No surprise, considering how many of their reserves were meanwhile withdrawn.
Actually, if there are lessons from eastern Kharkiv, Kherson, and now Kursk then that as soon as the Russians are confronted with a situation they didn't expect: thing's are rapidly going downhill for them.
ParanoidNow just might have meant the section where there could be bad news. At least that was my fear of the news elsewhere. But let me also take the opportunity to say that I certainly think adding more people to this team is very good and adds to the high quality of the blog.
Sorry, a bad attempt to joke
Thank you (but as they say, la mariée est trop belle)
Here in Britain it’s common knowledge that if you put the kettle on, someone will instantly just pop round unexpectedly, allowing you to ask if they want a cup of tea because ‘I’ve just put the kettle on’.
Clearly this was caused by the Rus…er Orcs who clearly ‘just popped the kettle on’ without expecting a British style ‘popping in’. And clearly tea was not offered, which is the root cause of all this mayhem. It’s damn rude, what did they expect?
“There is no war in the KPR. It was just terrorism. The referendum results are back and 113% voted they want independence.”
This action seems to have potential to be a game changer. Till now Ukraine had in fact much longer defense line than Russia. Now Russia is pushed to defense their borders too (as UA have to since the very beginning). Suddenly the biggest inequality is gone... The biggest red line crossed, I have been saying for two years that there is no reason to be afraid of crossing it, they are bluffing with the threat of nuclear weapons, 100% sure... because nuclear weapons is the red line for whole world. The real red line. And they know it.
Ah come on, with Suzdah they finally have a good target for a tactical nuke and if they nuke their own territory, who is going to blame them.
Sarcasm off
Tom, curious if the extended incursion into Kursk has any implications for the pathing of penetrating air attacks through newly opened radar-suppressed corridors. Does this give Ukrainian drones/missiles some new attack vectors?
Just counter terrorism. Nothing to see here.
An interesting observation regarding the past week's activities is that the ZSU has in fact moved away from its historical 'Soviet doctrine' disability, and it's now fine-tuning a very effective doctrine of tactical envelopment which basically involves the establishment of kill blocks in tactical bounds along the main axis of advance, while maintaining constant momentum in the advance-to-combat phase until reaching the desired objective (whatever that may be as determined by Kyiv). Is this a new tactical doctrine, and which one of the Ukraine partner nations trained the ZSU in this 'new' style of combat?
So, deliberately not explaining how this very effective doctrine is executed at the tactical level, all I can say is the last time I saw this style of warfare was in southern Angola circa 1987-89 when outnumber SADF mechanized infantry [wheeled] battalions destroyed modern Soviet equipped, trained and advised FAPLA and Cuban Brigades in a matter of days in the African savannah. The genius behind this decision is that the ZSU knows that RU is obsessively designed to counter NATO forces and their respective combat doctrines and TTP's (Russia's primary achilles heel), why it makes totally sense to implement a previously tried and tested [and nearly forgotten] mobile warfare doctrine never used by any NATO member state ever. Well done Ukraine. Unfortunately the hard part starts now.
One very intriguing thing is that China had no reaction so far regarding the Kursk incursion of Ukraine. I don't know if this was good or bad.
They are doing their usual thing: Watching and observing - after that considering what to do
I think they are grabbing their pop corn and watching closely. From their point of view there are almost no downsides to any result. Russia loosing troops etc? Fine, lets put more pressure on them when negotating. Ukraine winning? Fine Eu and Us are occupied and we can trade with Ukraine. They might be in the market for drones? Point is China isnt a friend to any of the combattants and will maximise its own outcome anyhow.
Officially, Xi and Poo declared unlimited friendship, so it is a bit strange. Probably Russia has assured its allies there is nothing serious. So far, the only reaction was from Belarus. Or China's interests are shifting. Or else - and that could be bad, another kind of escalation.
After the first half year it was clear that no Taiwan for them. So by now, the more Russia loses on this the better it is for them: it'll be just easier to gobble them up later.
Why would they do anything?
I read this, and Kuleba's 3-hour robust conversation with Yi, to be China understanding that it can't achieve its desired outcome anymore; things are unfolding with their own momentum. All of their support for Russia was to keep Putin in power; I see them as not believing it possible any more and they are now in damage control.