Ukraine War, 11 August 2024

Hello everybody!

Another update for today - once again focused on the Kursk Oblast in the Russian Federation: Don is going to be so kind to wrap-up all the developments elsewhere in Ukraine, tomorrow.

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Something like the ‘biggest news’ of the last 48 hours is that the Russian reinforcements began to reach the combat zone. Those known so far as either already there, or underway to the Kursk Oblast are something like follows:

• 2 VDV battalions (from strategic reserve)

• 79th Motor-Rifle Regiment, 272nd Motor-Rifle Regiment, and the 138th Motor-Rifle Brigade (all from the northern Kharkiv sector)

• 15th Motor-Rifle Brigade and 1 Motor-Rifle Regiment from the Belgorod Oblast (due to latest developments, the last might have to return to where it started from)

• 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (from the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector)

• 38th Motor-Rifle Brigade and 64th Motor-Rifle Brigade.

More must be expected to follow… for example, the 128th Motor-Rifle Brigade is said to have reached the combat zone (see below).

Sure, except for the two VDV battalions, all of these were reserves of the VSRF’s Groups Tsentr and Yug. However, none of these units is ‘fresh’: all are involved in months-long grinding of Ukrainian defence lines. All have been ‘re-configured’ to resulting slugging matches: see, even their tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers, have largely been converted to ‘turtle tanks’. Their troops are tired and malnourished, many haven’t taken a shower for weeks (is one of major complaints one can hear from ZSU troops in the Kursk zone, these days: the Russian POWs ‘stink’, literally… or at least one can smell them from 7-10 metres away) - and they lack training in mobile warfare.

Moreover, gauging by the fact that collective reporting by Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists from yesterday, according to which the Ukrainian advance was ‘stopped’, promptly proved to be fake news: these reserves are not enough.

Means: Gerasimov will have to bring in much more, and then, literally, ‘line them up’ to create a coherent frontline.

Of course, he can do that: he’s got enough support infra-structure (even if routing all the units first to Moscow then back to Kurks might take a day or two longer), and enough units to do so. That’s no problem. Indeed, one can expect him to do something similar to what Surovikin did in southern Zaporizhzhya, back in late 2022 and early 2023. That is to waste first reinforcements to stop the Ukrainian advance, while bringing in additional reinforcements and then constructing a major defence line some 15-20-25km behind the current line of contact (because right now there’s no true ‘frontline’ in this part of the battlefield); then to protect this with massive minefields, then stuff it with above-listed units, and then deploy VDV, Spetznas and Akhmat special runaway forces behind them, to provide additional firepower and make sure nobody is running away… So that any ZSU’s attempts to approach Kursk would end the way its attempts to approach Tokmak the last year.

That’s ‘just’ going to cost some time, money, fuel, troops, construction- and other equipment, plus lots of ammunition - all of which both Pudding and Gerasimov would’ve preferred to use inside Ukraine. Plus, not only that the weakened Russians began losing ground in northern Kharkiv, but the units already assaulting - for example in the Bakhmut-, Toretsk- or Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sectors - now can’t count with reinforcements and replacements as originally planned.

….and even then: it’s going to be only at that point (sometimes in 1-2-3 weeks, ‘or so’) that Gerasimov will be able to start planning his own counteroffensive with the aim of recovering the lost ‘holy land’ of Kursk, because, right now, he simply has got no mechanised units capable of conducting mobile warfare. Nor the necessary supplies in place.

***

Now… well, since official Kyiv is still de-facto zip-lip about this operation, and I’m not keen into discussing details of ZSU operations, the question is: what are these Russian reinforcements doing?

….and/or: what is the ZSU doing to them?

The 15th Motor-Rifle lost one battalion to that HIMARS or GLMRS strike on its column in Oktybarskoe, back in the evening of 7 August. The rest of that unit then seems to have done well in losing Olgovka, and might be in the process of losing Vetreno, too (we’re going to know in the evening or tomorrow, I guess).

The 128th Motor-Rifle (if this was really the 128th), followed in the wake of the 15th Motor-Rifle, from Kursk in western direction along the E38, then turned south - only to, reportedly, get hit by another HIMARS or GLMRS strike, somewhere between Emmanuilovka and Ljubimovka (see the map from yesterday: pay attention at ‘two explosions’ in the area south of Ivanino)… What’s left of the unit was then rushed on Bolshoe Soldatskoe…

The 810th Naval Infantry seems to have followed the two above-mentioned ones, and been deployed in form of three battalion-sized task forces. One went to Korenovo: claimed to have repelled the Ukrainian attack (actually: ‘just a raid’), on 7 August: meanwhile seems to be on the best way of losing this town. Indeed, some Russians were reporting an Ukrainian raid all the way to Rylsk, yesterday. If so, the VSRF garrison of Korenovo is already ‘fighting with one eye over its shoulder’….

The other part of the 810th went to Lgov, and then south, past Kromskie Byki: reportedly scattered a ‘group of 30 Ukrainian militants’ with 5 tanks, 2 Bradleys, and few MRAPs. This group is said to have lots of Lancets on hand, and one of these should’ve killed one of ZSU’s tanks in this clash. That said, then it turned out the Ukrainians have only raided further north, to keep the Russians busy while the 22nd was securing Malaya Loknya, Makhnovka, Giryi, Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, and the area in between….and then, hitting back to secure the hamlets of Sheptukhovka and Kauchuk, of which the last is 2km west of Kromskie Byki.

Sound defence operation, 810th…

The third part of the 810th claimed to have liberated Martynovka, yesterday. Me thinks: only the part west of the local river, actually. But, we’re going to see in a day or two…

NASA’s FIRMS-system seems to be confirming most of Russian reports about places where their troops are either getting hit by Ukrainian long-range weapons, or are clashing with ZSU units. Notable are HIMARS/GLMRS (or ATACMS?) strikes deep into the Russian rear, well to the north of the E38 highway.

South of Sudzha, the Russians still holding out in the Makhnovka were (un)pleasantly surprised when the ZSU crossed the border and hit them from the west, securing Guevo, crossing the Psel River, securing Plekhovo, and then attacking Borki. If this Ukrainian advance crosses the Psel River further east again, too…. yup, that’s going to be ‘another Izyum’ for the Russians. The VKS - ‘promptly’ - lost another Ka-52 shot down there (according to the Russian social media: ‘direct MANPADS hit from short range’… i.e. crew was k…kuddled), while Su-34s deployed UMPKs to bomb the road outside Myropillia (inside Ukraine). In turn, the ZSU claimed one Su-34 as shot down.

What else is going on….?

Ah yes, either the ZSU’s HIMARS/GLMRS or SBU’s UAVs have hit the Kursk Vostochny AB: home-base of the 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment and the 332nd Helicopter Aviation Regiment. Guess, both units will have to find a new base now.

Then another such strike hit the forward base north of Kursk, at which the (tattered remnants of the) 155th Naval Infantry Brigade were in the process of being reorganised after their arrival in this area. VSRF’s rescue services are still collecting pieces, while Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists are quite mad…

….and the ZSU hit one of forward bases of the Aid Group of the Akhmat. Probably to remind them why did they run away from Sudzha, back on 6 August…

The last night, multiple facilities in Kursk were hit by dozens of Ukrainian UAVs, too. At least one apartment building was badly damaged by a SAM that missed one:

In turn, the VSRF has at least its is targeting selected spots with Iskander-Ms. For example, this one was targeting Ukrainian positions in the Guyevo area (can’t complain: it didn’t target anything in Ukraine):

…and the Russian shelling of the villages like Kostiantynivka, Volodymyrivka, and Zhuravka - all along the border west of Sudzha - is indicative of the ZSU completing the process of securing the road from Volodymyrivka to Snegost and Korenovo, i.e. securing villages of Byakhovo, Vnezapnoe, and Gordeevka, too.

Nevermind… according to the official release by the Keystone Cops in Moscow from yesterday, Ukraine so far lost 1,350 troops, 29 tanks, 23 armoured personnel carriers, 9 infantry fighting vehicles, 116 other armoured vehicles, 20 soft-skin vehicles, 3 Buk M1 launchers, one AN/MPG-65 Radar of the Patriot SAMN-system, a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system, and 10 field guns. Which even the Russians are belittling, because this was the approximate composition of the ZSU forces reported by Gerasimov to have invaded the Kursk Oblast, back on 6 August…

At least War Gonzo knows better. He’s found himself a VSRF officer who is not only understanding what is he expecting him to say into the micro, but has fought the British for the last 70 years, and thus knows how to recognise he’s fighting them again:

Good he’s so honest. I’m promptly feeling so much better: can’t say.

Erm… how…You don’t know what does ‘British signature’ mean…?

Oh dear… and then I’m going to be accused, for 149th time at least, for patronising my readers…

Problem: I have a soft spot for my readers.

So, what shall I do? Here you are:

Therefore, the Ukrainians upped the ante, and - probably ‘British style’ - launched another major ‘invasion of Russia’ - this time from their Sumy Oblast into the Russian Belovsky District. That’s some 30km down the border from Sudzha. And then so much so, the same Russian PRBS-industrialists are meanwhile complaining about a ‘huge-scale breakthrough’ there.

Of course, cooler heads have prevailed, meanwhile: the situation is ‘under control’, so the Russians. VKS is ‘working’, one of armoured personnel carriers of the Border Guards knocked out a Ukrainian Kozak MRAP, it was just a clash on the border, and now everything is OK…