Hello everybody! Having ‘vented’ my (endless) frustration over the Russian monstrosities, but also the obvious incompetence of ‘too many’ of ZSU’s officers, two days ago, lets get back to some ‘tactical analysis’ of what’s going on in southern Ukraine, especially in the southern Zaporizhzhya Oblast….
As a principle, when attacking fortifications, you should pin it in place, then isolate it by simple or double enveloping maneuvers and on the vertical, by para drops or landings. The advance rhythm is slow, 1/2 or 1/4 of the normal one and produces heavy casualties. You also need strong fire support from aviation or artillery. Artillery should concentrate their fire on "breaking sectors" , which have a frontal development of 300-500 meters. Artillery should land hit after hit, shell landing near shell landing, neutralizing everything on that 300 meters area. In these formed corridors you introduce the infantry, company after company, 10-12 if needed and start widening this corridor left and right. Lacking artillery and aviation support will usually get you nowhere.
Again, sobering. Thanks! Would smoke be of any use in such situations? How capable are Russian drones, helos, ground forces of seeing through it? Would attacks on a different front yield the same results?
Great write up! What surprised me wasn't that the first tank and IFVs were hit, it was that they sent additional IFVs into the kill zone which were hammered by Ka-52s and whatever else. You dont need to be a military expert to understand that was a silly thing to do since the enemy was more prepared with more assets in the area. So major blunder from ZSU and hope they adjust. Also Eff the guys who betrayed Ukraine and let the Russians drive their way to Melitopol in the first case. My issue though is with the whole military aid we're sending and the lack of western airborne platforms. Why send western tanks and then expect Ukraine to carry out western style combined arms maneuvers without some force of western airborne platforms. Even ISR drones operating at distance from the frontline, Biden WH refused to provide, then went on to lose an even more advanced ISR drone right in Russian controlled waters. These would have helped correct Counter battery fire No? I think a major issue is western politicians being in charge of military matters. Ukraine has to do wonders with Western tanks but not enough artillery to suppress the enemy, with western IFVs but no airborne platforms to detect and hit Russian airborne and ground assets. Would any NATO General take on this task under similar circumstances, I think not. We saw a video of a Western IRIST SLS radar being hit by a lancet and it had no mobile or modular CUAS systems near it to defend it. Is it we're not providing CUAS systems or the Ukrainians were being lazy or are forced to use the CUAS for civilian areas? Why would we send such equipment and not provide such basic solutions. Ground launched APKWS with EO/IR sensors should have started mass production last year. Its been obvious the dangers of cheap drones since before this war but we still see footage of Western equipment moving under the watch of Russian drones. Meaning there aren't enough CUAS platforms. And these platforms aren't expensive. The Vampire CUAS system is not even a $0.5mn system. and would be perfect for protecting AD systems in the rear from loitering drones. West needs to step up and send everything to cover the skies and ground as well as introduce mass production to lower the cost per unit.
As the result of sanctions from Hell during 9 years ... Moscow empire has begun MASS production of FPV drones. Which with price 200-2000 $ can easily kill a man, with price 500-3000$ easily eliminate a tank. So NOW Abrams/Leopards/Challengers is a trash which becoming a shit. And as we can see, can be easily destroyed by old russian artillery and mines, and ATGMs and......
So, Leopard 2A5 in real modern war NOT BETTER than T-72B3. Because, Leopard 2 has old optics, infrared cameras, radio, electronics. Leopard/Abrams is bigger - harder to hide, and easy to target. They are too heavy - problems with bridges and mud/soil, transport and repair are real difficulties.
IF USA would gave 10% Abrams 15 month ago + 15% of their artillery - Ukraine would returned even Crimea. But NOW Moscow empire produces enough Orlans Lancets FPV drones and so on, that can annihilate ALL western tanks and artillery and other.
IF West would gave weapon to Ukraine 9 years ago - Ukraine would win in 2014. But West is ally to Moscow so imposed weapon embargo on Ukraine, and we could not buy most needed weapon during 8 years of the war.
IF would West gave weapon BEFORE 24 february 2022 - NO Big war possible. But West planned fast destruction of Ukraine. Absolutely unexpected for West, it plannes FAILED.
West gave enough time for Moscow for prepare to occupy Ukraine, after 24 february enough time for changes of situation, for building a powerful defence, for mobilisation and so on.
24 february West proposed to Ukraine terrible end. Ukrainians not agree and fight desperately. And West propose horror without end. Just genocide. Moscow army kill More => more millions ukrainian children and girls run to EU and USA. West got the most valuable.
Not the happiest reading, but that's war. Two questions, just to make the things a little clearer for me:
- Electronic warfare is a two way street. Also, usually not the Russian electronic devices and parts are necessary for the western gadgets, but the other way. How could the Russian EW and ECM be so effective when - one would think - the western counterparts should be at least that good? Being able to jam them at least as much as they can do? One of the most advanced and useful feature of the modern western SPGs is their shoot-and-scout ability - but only if the battlefield communication is working.
- Artillery: propably not your table, but maybe another reader can answer. What happens with the worn out artillery barrels? Are those scrapped and must be replaced with a new one, or can those be "replenished", replacing only the rifling? If the later, how long does it take? I ask it because there are a lot of news about the NATO ammo supplies, but very little about the guns. AFAIK a 155mm howitzer barrel is good about 3000 full-charge shot. Considering the Ukrainian demands for ammo, no barrel can last more than 3-4 months - be it a Pz2000, Caesar or M777. Which means that about 1/3 of all the available artillery has to be in the repairshop at any given time.
The Russian defense lines are already enormous. Can you estimate roughly how many troops it would take to adequately man these defenses? A trench is only as good as the men who defend it and without enough manpower these trenches are less dangerous i think.
I ask because I heard from Russian sources (the reliability of which is questionable) that Putin or Gerasimov should have ordered the direct front line to be defended with all available men and not to let the Ukrainians even get to the fortified defense lines. What if that were true would be a bad arrangement in my eyes. Have you heard similar or different?
Furthermore, several Russian sources (there is very little from the Ukrainian side due to Opsec) claim that the day before yesterday 70-80% of all Russian reserves were deployed in southern Ukraine, which to me seems a bit like a jack-of-all-trades-in in poker.
What do you think of the reports from these Russian sources?
Thanks for the in-depth explanation of what is going on.
I can't believe the AFU is truly attempting to pierce Russians line head-on after telling everybody and first of all the Russians, they were going to attack from this direction. It sounds so .. unnecessary.
Likewise I can't wrap my head around "NATO" thought a handful of not that modern and a couple of brigade hastily trained would successfully carry this task. The hubris. Especially given how NATO performed in Afghanistan and even Syria/Iraq (ie less than impressive).
There has been a lot of WW2 comparison since this war became a full scale invasion last year. Now I am not a big fan of historical analogy. But if I had to compare this one, so far it looks horribly comparable to a famous German offensive in 43. Tragically the Ukrainians waited a long time to get but an handful of wunderwaffe leaving time for the Russians to prepare adequately (especially with mines). The Russians numbers and superiority in firepower should do the rest.
Obviouslt the best place for counteroffensive - are Kursk or Belgorod regions or even Belorus. BUT West banned this. Because West and Moscow empire are business partners, and make money.
Jun 10, 2023·edited Jun 10, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Tom, Thank you for bitter but realistic update. I do hope ZSU is learning the lesson. Hopefully, the low pressure air mass, which is in the area right now, will disable VKS heli and UAV at least for a couple of days. Small notes: Most probably mistyping: GUR MO, not a GRU (Sorry, I have typo too)
I read hundreds comments ... and in shock. 1. People discourse the tactic of 20 centuary, sorry but now ALL these are trash. 21 centuary if you not sleep. So now rulers are drones and so on. Where Moscow already has total dominance. 2. Sorry, but i have to write obvious for 12 years old things: offensive NEED CONCENTRATION. For example 200+ tanks better 500+ in ONE PLACE , so chains anty mine mashine tanks Bradlwys - so number of such chains mast be 30+ in one moment - that opponent can not destroy all of them! But Ukraine has 60 Leopards at all. + now 21 centuary, so huge concentracions - opponent has weapon for work against concentracions. So 20 centuary tactic with 20 centuary weapon not work.
"Kara Dag", not "Kara Dog"
As a principle, when attacking fortifications, you should pin it in place, then isolate it by simple or double enveloping maneuvers and on the vertical, by para drops or landings. The advance rhythm is slow, 1/2 or 1/4 of the normal one and produces heavy casualties. You also need strong fire support from aviation or artillery. Artillery should concentrate their fire on "breaking sectors" , which have a frontal development of 300-500 meters. Artillery should land hit after hit, shell landing near shell landing, neutralizing everything on that 300 meters area. In these formed corridors you introduce the infantry, company after company, 10-12 if needed and start widening this corridor left and right. Lacking artillery and aviation support will usually get you nowhere.
Again, sobering. Thanks! Would smoke be of any use in such situations? How capable are Russian drones, helos, ground forces of seeing through it? Would attacks on a different front yield the same results?
Great write up! What surprised me wasn't that the first tank and IFVs were hit, it was that they sent additional IFVs into the kill zone which were hammered by Ka-52s and whatever else. You dont need to be a military expert to understand that was a silly thing to do since the enemy was more prepared with more assets in the area. So major blunder from ZSU and hope they adjust. Also Eff the guys who betrayed Ukraine and let the Russians drive their way to Melitopol in the first case. My issue though is with the whole military aid we're sending and the lack of western airborne platforms. Why send western tanks and then expect Ukraine to carry out western style combined arms maneuvers without some force of western airborne platforms. Even ISR drones operating at distance from the frontline, Biden WH refused to provide, then went on to lose an even more advanced ISR drone right in Russian controlled waters. These would have helped correct Counter battery fire No? I think a major issue is western politicians being in charge of military matters. Ukraine has to do wonders with Western tanks but not enough artillery to suppress the enemy, with western IFVs but no airborne platforms to detect and hit Russian airborne and ground assets. Would any NATO General take on this task under similar circumstances, I think not. We saw a video of a Western IRIST SLS radar being hit by a lancet and it had no mobile or modular CUAS systems near it to defend it. Is it we're not providing CUAS systems or the Ukrainians were being lazy or are forced to use the CUAS for civilian areas? Why would we send such equipment and not provide such basic solutions. Ground launched APKWS with EO/IR sensors should have started mass production last year. Its been obvious the dangers of cheap drones since before this war but we still see footage of Western equipment moving under the watch of Russian drones. Meaning there aren't enough CUAS platforms. And these platforms aren't expensive. The Vampire CUAS system is not even a $0.5mn system. and would be perfect for protecting AD systems in the rear from loitering drones. West needs to step up and send everything to cover the skies and ground as well as introduce mass production to lower the cost per unit.
Great analysis Tom, adds so much clarity to what is happening, but what an absolute nightmare situation
Oh... thank you.
As the result of sanctions from Hell during 9 years ... Moscow empire has begun MASS production of FPV drones. Which with price 200-2000 $ can easily kill a man, with price 500-3000$ easily eliminate a tank. So NOW Abrams/Leopards/Challengers is a trash which becoming a shit. And as we can see, can be easily destroyed by old russian artillery and mines, and ATGMs and......
So, Leopard 2A5 in real modern war NOT BETTER than T-72B3. Because, Leopard 2 has old optics, infrared cameras, radio, electronics. Leopard/Abrams is bigger - harder to hide, and easy to target. They are too heavy - problems with bridges and mud/soil, transport and repair are real difficulties.
IF USA would gave 10% Abrams 15 month ago + 15% of their artillery - Ukraine would returned even Crimea. But NOW Moscow empire produces enough Orlans Lancets FPV drones and so on, that can annihilate ALL western tanks and artillery and other.
IF West would gave weapon to Ukraine 9 years ago - Ukraine would win in 2014. But West is ally to Moscow so imposed weapon embargo on Ukraine, and we could not buy most needed weapon during 8 years of the war.
IF would West gave weapon BEFORE 24 february 2022 - NO Big war possible. But West planned fast destruction of Ukraine. Absolutely unexpected for West, it plannes FAILED.
West gave enough time for Moscow for prepare to occupy Ukraine, after 24 february enough time for changes of situation, for building a powerful defence, for mobilisation and so on.
24 february West proposed to Ukraine terrible end. Ukrainians not agree and fight desperately. And West propose horror without end. Just genocide. Moscow army kill More => more millions ukrainian children and girls run to EU and USA. West got the most valuable.
And continue business as usual with Moscow.
Not the happiest reading, but that's war. Two questions, just to make the things a little clearer for me:
- Electronic warfare is a two way street. Also, usually not the Russian electronic devices and parts are necessary for the western gadgets, but the other way. How could the Russian EW and ECM be so effective when - one would think - the western counterparts should be at least that good? Being able to jam them at least as much as they can do? One of the most advanced and useful feature of the modern western SPGs is their shoot-and-scout ability - but only if the battlefield communication is working.
- Artillery: propably not your table, but maybe another reader can answer. What happens with the worn out artillery barrels? Are those scrapped and must be replaced with a new one, or can those be "replenished", replacing only the rifling? If the later, how long does it take? I ask it because there are a lot of news about the NATO ammo supplies, but very little about the guns. AFAIK a 155mm howitzer barrel is good about 3000 full-charge shot. Considering the Ukrainian demands for ammo, no barrel can last more than 3-4 months - be it a Pz2000, Caesar or M777. Which means that about 1/3 of all the available artillery has to be in the repairshop at any given time.
The Russian defense lines are already enormous. Can you estimate roughly how many troops it would take to adequately man these defenses? A trench is only as good as the men who defend it and without enough manpower these trenches are less dangerous i think.
I ask because I heard from Russian sources (the reliability of which is questionable) that Putin or Gerasimov should have ordered the direct front line to be defended with all available men and not to let the Ukrainians even get to the fortified defense lines. What if that were true would be a bad arrangement in my eyes. Have you heard similar or different?
Furthermore, several Russian sources (there is very little from the Ukrainian side due to Opsec) claim that the day before yesterday 70-80% of all Russian reserves were deployed in southern Ukraine, which to me seems a bit like a jack-of-all-trades-in in poker.
What do you think of the reports from these Russian sources?
Thanks for the in-depth explanation of what is going on.
I can't believe the AFU is truly attempting to pierce Russians line head-on after telling everybody and first of all the Russians, they were going to attack from this direction. It sounds so .. unnecessary.
Likewise I can't wrap my head around "NATO" thought a handful of not that modern and a couple of brigade hastily trained would successfully carry this task. The hubris. Especially given how NATO performed in Afghanistan and even Syria/Iraq (ie less than impressive).
There has been a lot of WW2 comparison since this war became a full scale invasion last year. Now I am not a big fan of historical analogy. But if I had to compare this one, so far it looks horribly comparable to a famous German offensive in 43. Tragically the Ukrainians waited a long time to get but an handful of wunderwaffe leaving time for the Russians to prepare adequately (especially with mines). The Russians numbers and superiority in firepower should do the rest.
What about the FPV drones? How can Ukraine counter them?
They took out quite a few Ukrainian armour:
https://t.me/romanov_92/39142
Obviouslt the best place for counteroffensive - are Kursk or Belgorod regions or even Belorus. BUT West banned this. Because West and Moscow empire are business partners, and make money.
Ceterum censeo exercitum Russium esse exterminandem
;)
Tom, Thank you for bitter but realistic update. I do hope ZSU is learning the lesson. Hopefully, the low pressure air mass, which is in the area right now, will disable VKS heli and UAV at least for a couple of days. Small notes: Most probably mistyping: GUR MO, not a GRU (Sorry, I have typo too)
. Keeping finger crossed and God bless ZSU.
I read hundreds comments ... and in shock. 1. People discourse the tactic of 20 centuary, sorry but now ALL these are trash. 21 centuary if you not sleep. So now rulers are drones and so on. Where Moscow already has total dominance. 2. Sorry, but i have to write obvious for 12 years old things: offensive NEED CONCENTRATION. For example 200+ tanks better 500+ in ONE PLACE , so chains anty mine mashine tanks Bradlwys - so number of such chains mast be 30+ in one moment - that opponent can not destroy all of them! But Ukraine has 60 Leopards at all. + now 21 centuary, so huge concentracions - opponent has weapon for work against concentracions. So 20 centuary tactic with 20 centuary weapon not work.