As a principle, when attacking fortifications, you should pin it in place, then isolate it by simple or double enveloping maneuvers and on the vertical, by para drops or landings. The advance rhythm is slow, 1/2 or 1/4 of the normal one and produces heavy casualties. You also need strong fire support from aviation or artillery. Artillery should concentrate their fire on "breaking sectors" , which have a frontal development of 300-500 meters. Artillery should land hit after hit, shell landing near shell landing, neutralizing everything on that 300 meters area. In these formed corridors you introduce the infantry, company after company, 10-12 if needed and start widening this corridor left and right. Lacking artillery and aviation support will usually get you nowhere.
If you need to, you can attack fortification, it's hell on Earth but it can be done. But not without massive artillery concentrations and aviation. You don't have the latter two, better don't do it.
Well, as could've been seen the last three days (arguably: not at all in the social media), some of ZSU COs were good enough to run multi-prong assaults, to launch them while it was still night etc. ..... with result of multiple Russian fortifications being outflanked and, subsequently, captured.
....which in turn is 'explaining' all the Russian boasting about how their units heroically and steadfastly defend all attacks, and none has withdrawn...
Again, sobering. Thanks! Would smoke be of any use in such situations? How capable are Russian drones, helos, ground forces of seeing through it? Would attacks on a different front yield the same results?
Yes, at least smoke, or - and even better - night.
But, that's the problem: for the ZSU to run large-scale night-attacks, its COs would have to trust their troops.... while they 'simply know better, period'.
Great write up! What surprised me wasn't that the first tank and IFVs were hit, it was that they sent additional IFVs into the kill zone which were hammered by Ka-52s and whatever else. You dont need to be a military expert to understand that was a silly thing to do since the enemy was more prepared with more assets in the area. So major blunder from ZSU and hope they adjust. Also Eff the guys who betrayed Ukraine and let the Russians drive their way to Melitopol in the first case. My issue though is with the whole military aid we're sending and the lack of western airborne platforms. Why send western tanks and then expect Ukraine to carry out western style combined arms maneuvers without some force of western airborne platforms. Even ISR drones operating at distance from the frontline, Biden WH refused to provide, then went on to lose an even more advanced ISR drone right in Russian controlled waters. These would have helped correct Counter battery fire No? I think a major issue is western politicians being in charge of military matters. Ukraine has to do wonders with Western tanks but not enough artillery to suppress the enemy, with western IFVs but no airborne platforms to detect and hit Russian airborne and ground assets. Would any NATO General take on this task under similar circumstances, I think not. We saw a video of a Western IRIST SLS radar being hit by a lancet and it had no mobile or modular CUAS systems near it to defend it. Is it we're not providing CUAS systems or the Ukrainians were being lazy or are forced to use the CUAS for civilian areas? Why would we send such equipment and not provide such basic solutions. Ground launched APKWS with EO/IR sensors should have started mass production last year. Its been obvious the dangers of cheap drones since before this war but we still see footage of Western equipment moving under the watch of Russian drones. Meaning there aren't enough CUAS platforms. And these platforms aren't expensive. The Vampire CUAS system is not even a $0.5mn system. and would be perfect for protecting AD systems in the rear from loitering drones. West needs to step up and send everything to cover the skies and ground as well as introduce mass production to lower the cost per unit.
Can at least 'sympathise' with most of what you wrote, but: who said any 'Western' armed force would perform better?
I've taken part in a countless number of discussions of the 'Auftragstaktik', just for example. But, I only ever run into 3-4 people actually understanding it. If my memory is not horribly wrong, only one of them ever came into position to apply it actually.
Indeed - and while I hate analogies to earlier wars (especially WWII), but at least I can say, 'you started' ;-) - the Allies didn't win the WWII by copying the Auftragstaktik and then applying it against the Wehrmacht etc., but through a plump war of attrition. And ever since, all the Western armies are repeating the exercise. In Korea, in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Mali... (and that's not to talk about the Soviets/Russians and their clients).
So, why should then anybody be surprised if 'Ukrainians that can't', advised by 'Westerners that can't' - can't find their way out of this, but are degenerating into a war of attrition?
What little 'clever' Ukrainian officers were around, have spent 99% of the last 20 years with intrigues to get such like Zaluzhny into at least a few important positions. What a surprise, they barely managed to teach officers of the regular (pre-24Feb22) ZSU in something like their own version of the Auftragstaktik. Already for this, they were all the time criticised by their Western advisors for being corrupt and incompetent. And an even bigger surprise: the replacements appointed in position of those who were shot away over the last 15 months, promptly returned to the only way they know, which is the Soviet/Zhukov-style war of attrition...
As for 'why are we delivering them this stuff'... Because our politicians are no strategists, but fall-outs from the PR department. Paid advertisers, selling us daydreams about them being the ones to represent us, while actually representing a host of better-paying private- and commercial interests. And the interest of these interests is not to win the war, but to keep on running it - because that's good for business.
Moreover, because they are fall-outs from the PR department, the same politicians - and the military strategists they're supposed to command - have no trace of clue about modern warfare. Even less so about modern weapons technologies.
....'but' then we 'wonder' how comes a IRIS-T system destined for Egypt, but re-routed to Ukraine, arrives there still wearing the desert camo, and lacking CIWS-support?
...or, how comes not only the ZSU, but all of NATO, has not one operational anti-LPGM/UCAV system in service?
This is a war of idiots, nothing else. Excellently paid and widely famed idiots, but still idiots.
Jun 10, 2023·edited Jun 10, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Fully agree. There are a lot of people who think we in the West are on top of things in terms of developing the equipment needed to counter modern conventional threats. Otherwise yes, Politicians/idiots are the biggest issue in all this. Ukrainians are fighting for their survival while they play politics and drip feed the Ukrainian army for political points.
As the result of sanctions from Hell during 9 years ... Moscow empire has begun MASS production of FPV drones. Which with price 200-2000 $ can easily kill a man, with price 500-3000$ easily eliminate a tank. So NOW Abrams/Leopards/Challengers is a trash which becoming a shit. And as we can see, can be easily destroyed by old russian artillery and mines, and ATGMs and......
So, Leopard 2A5 in real modern war NOT BETTER than T-72B3. Because, Leopard 2 has old optics, infrared cameras, radio, electronics. Leopard/Abrams is bigger - harder to hide, and easy to target. They are too heavy - problems with bridges and mud/soil, transport and repair are real difficulties.
IF USA would gave 10% Abrams 15 month ago + 15% of their artillery - Ukraine would returned even Crimea. But NOW Moscow empire produces enough Orlans Lancets FPV drones and so on, that can annihilate ALL western tanks and artillery and other.
IF West would gave weapon to Ukraine 9 years ago - Ukraine would win in 2014. But West is ally to Moscow so imposed weapon embargo on Ukraine, and we could not buy most needed weapon during 8 years of the war.
IF would West gave weapon BEFORE 24 february 2022 - NO Big war possible. But West planned fast destruction of Ukraine. Absolutely unexpected for West, it plannes FAILED.
West gave enough time for Moscow for prepare to occupy Ukraine, after 24 february enough time for changes of situation, for building a powerful defence, for mobilisation and so on.
24 february West proposed to Ukraine terrible end. Ukrainians not agree and fight desperately. And West propose horror without end. Just genocide. Moscow army kill More => more millions ukrainian children and girls run to EU and USA. West got the most valuable.
And what are you going to do if both Chinese and Russians start something new? Do you have capabilities for both?
Ukraine is now keeping the Russian army busy, and it is in your interest to make sure Russia is strongly defeated and will not start any new campaign in the following decade. If it is not, both your capabilities and your personnel will suffer losses in the following conflicts, or your country will have to surrender its position in the world.
We are already a decade behind on many different weapon systems in terms of replenishing our supplies, this includes the javelin. Russia is already crippled for the next half century, they’re already a dying military at this point, the US does not fear the Russians. The US will fight the Russians to the last Ukrainians.
The concern is china, I disagree with giving away my tax paying money into an endless conflict by idiotic politicians that have no idea what they’re doing, except doing stuff that will get them re-elected. You didn’t pay for the weapons, I did.
Russia is right now building a factory that will produce 6000 long-range kamikaze drones a year, and they double or tripled their missile and tank production. And they have as many nukes as US does.
Will US intervene when Russia attacks yet another non-Nato country? Will US intervene if Russia sends the drones and tanks to the Baltic Nato states? Is US going to do anything at all if the thousands of Russian-built drones end up in the hands of US opponents and start attacking US bases or aircraft carriers?
Hm. You manipulate. In reality USA just make money on ukrainians blood, by MANY ways. For example advertisement of american weapon ALREADY gave 100+ billions $ to USA. AND USA sold gas to Europe .. cost aa how many billions $? With prices sky high. American companies Halliburton Schlumberger Baker Haghers , Weatherford produce HALF of russian oil and get many billions profits. USA and EU still buy russian oil and oil products and metals and other goods ... with DISCONT! During 8 years of this war USA invested in Moscow empire 100+ billions $, and got huge profits, + i can add 100 more facts. For example approx 1 trillion $ run from Europe to USA. LETScompare: USA spent REAL money from budget on weapon help for Ukraine less than 3 billions $. 1. Utilisarion million shells costs huge money, so USA save dollars and send them to Ukraine, the same for rockets, mines, .. and even for Patriots. 2. We have to look at SELF COST, not on CORRUPTED prices in 2-5-6 times higher! 3. For MOST sent weapon USA NOT produce replacemant, because sent mostly RUBBISH, mich Not need itself.
USA declared sanctions on russian Rusal(aluminium and others). Capitalisation dropped to Hell. American companies BOUGHT shares. And remove sanctions from Rusal. Cost of these shares fly to sky and USA got several billions $ on this....... "friendship and protecting Ukraine"
....while your taxpayer's money is so much better spent for constructing bases in 85+ countries and fighting aggressive, yet pointless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq?
I’d rather my tax paying dollars go towards the hospital I work at instead of the 40 years of pointless interventions that has left countless friends of mine with PTSD and life altering wounds. We have hand held the Europeans so much they have failed to uphold their side of NATO’s deal.
No doubt about the European part of NATO wholeheartedly cooperating with Putin, and disarming all the time. But, we didn't go wasting trillions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
....nor did we clandestinelly deploy 15,000 troops (foremost PMCs) to Uganda and Congo in order to fight a gang of 200 wannabe-islamists, or 'direct' Saudi Arabia into an aggression on Yemen.
Somehow, can't imagine that's good - either for hospitals in the USA, or a possible confrontation with the PRC: thus, it could be your governments are wasting your taxpayer's money in wrong places, too?
Never will I deny that my country does all these interventions, and I will restate what I said in previous comments, these interventions were extremely wasteful and did not improve my fellow citizens living standards at all. And I never will deny that my country wastes tax paying dollars in all the wrong places. Especially when they donate everything but enough SHORADs to the Ukrainians, which means they need to donate more and more later on. Can’t let them win too early, need to fight the Russians til the last Ukrainian
Yesterday Leo A6 was easily hit and burnt by Russian dron. Russians knew that A4 modification of Leo is week (how many of them Turkey lost in process of “punishment” of Kurdish territories) but now they discovered that A6 has the same week protection
I don't believe that Leo A6 was destroyed by the UAV. It struck the tanks side setting off upper turret smoke dischargers and an immediate white plume. But typically video cuts out before a better determination could be made.
It's just like with that Lancet-attack on the IRIS-T-radar: everybody claiming 'destroyed', while the LPGM actually hit the top of the antenna and ricochetted off it. The radar was back in operation mere 30 minutes later....
About “West …continue business as usual”: I am very sorry but Ukraine still continue pumping Russian oil and gas right now through Ukrainian pipeline system, yes? Just business, yes?
Sorry but Russia was not interested in occupation of Ukraine. The offer was quite clear “Please, stay neutral, we need safety belt between West and East”. Ukraine decided to join NATO /EU. In February 2022 Putin’s plan was to go in, to sign (under Russian pressure) an agreement/promise Ukraine to stay neutral and go out. That is why they visited Kiev suburbs. But all players participating in this terrible story decided that “let’s be the war”.
Very sorry again but Ukraine has nothing important for Russia: depleted natural resources? Russia have much richer coal, iron ore, oil/gas fields. Ukrainian industry? Ukraine lost everything during post-Soviet period - perfect super-heavy air cargo Antonov plant produce nothing last 20(?) years and technical documentation was sold to China; perfect Nikolaev shipbuilding plant doesn’t produce ships last 20(?) years; specialists of perfect airspace KB Yuzhnoe were relocated to Russia/China many years ago and again, it produces nothing; full scale car manufacturing facility (LUAZ and Zaporogetc were perfect cars for country side used in all USSR) was converted many years ago into foreign car assembling facility (all technical /design competences were lost as result). And so on. Agriculture? Russia produces more.
Occupation wasn’t in Putin plans - Ukraine has nothing to be occupied. But Crimea is absolutely different story. It was very important for Russia. But again from safety point of view only.
You lied: "russia was not interesting in ocupation of Ukraine". The lie from the begining
Ukraine has NO CHOICE but "pump oil to Europe", because Europe demand THIS .. no choice. IF Ukraine does not pump gas (you lied gas not oil!)) Europe will help russia even MORE than now, and block any help for Ukraine. Dark blackmail
This is not correct - Hungary consumes Russian oil from Druzhba pipeline. Direction of this pipeline is Russia-Belorussia- Lviv (Ukraine)-Hungary.
And, please, give me more details about huge value of occupation of Ukraine. What do you have and this thing is absent in Russia? Only Ukrainian location as a safety belt keeping significant distance between NATO and Russia has a value for Russia. In case of occupation of Ukraine this problem will not be solved - two armies will stay 10 m away from each other on Polish border.
For example, Turkey is a safety belt between Europe and islamic world too; that is why Turkey will never be a part of united Europe. This is simply not smart.
Agree. But Putin is mad about safety. So, initial idea of safety belt between two armies in not bad, yes? For example, it is better to keep far away from each other India and Pakistan.
A stray Lamb stood drinking early one morning on the bank of a woodland stream. That very same morning a hungry Wolf came by farther up the stream, hunting for something to eat. He soon got his eyes on the Lamb. As a rule Mr. Wolf snapped up such delicious morsels without making any bones about it, but this Lamb looked so very helpless and innocent that the Wolf felt he ought to have some kind of an excuse for taking its life.
"How dare you paddle around in my stream and stir up all the mud!" he shouted fiercely. "You deserve to be punished severely for your rashness!"
"But, your highness," replied the trembling Lamb, "do not be angry! I cannot possibly muddy the water you are drinking up there. Remember, you are upstream and I am downstream."
"You do muddy it!" retorted the Wolf savagely. "And besides, I have heard that you told lies about me last year!" "How could I have done so?" pleaded the Lamb. "I wasn't born until this year."
"If it wasn't you, it was your brother!"
"I have no brothers."
"Well, then," snarled the Wolf, "It was someone in your family anyway. But no matter who it was, I do not intend to be talked out of my breakfast."
And without more words the Wolf seized the poor Lamb and carried her off to the forest.
The tyrant can always find an excuse for his tyranny.
The unjust will not listen to the reasoning of the innocent.
“Russian oil supplies via southern Druzhba pipeline (this is exactly route “Russia-Belorussia-Lviv, Ukraine-Eastern Europe”) to rise 16% in June”.
Your suggestion that I am a liar is incorrect. Please, say “I am very sorry to blame you; Ukraine still pumps Russian oil through Ukrainian pipeline system ”. :-)
Not the happiest reading, but that's war. Two questions, just to make the things a little clearer for me:
- Electronic warfare is a two way street. Also, usually not the Russian electronic devices and parts are necessary for the western gadgets, but the other way. How could the Russian EW and ECM be so effective when - one would think - the western counterparts should be at least that good? Being able to jam them at least as much as they can do? One of the most advanced and useful feature of the modern western SPGs is their shoot-and-scout ability - but only if the battlefield communication is working.
- Artillery: propably not your table, but maybe another reader can answer. What happens with the worn out artillery barrels? Are those scrapped and must be replaced with a new one, or can those be "replenished", replacing only the rifling? If the later, how long does it take? I ask it because there are a lot of news about the NATO ammo supplies, but very little about the guns. AFAIK a 155mm howitzer barrel is good about 3000 full-charge shot. Considering the Ukrainian demands for ammo, no barrel can last more than 3-4 months - be it a Pz2000, Caesar or M777. Which means that about 1/3 of all the available artillery has to be in the repairshop at any given time.
Pudding is preparing this war at least since 2016-2017, if not already since the late 2000s (say: 2008 or so). That was enough time for the VSRF to study how is NATO operating, and how to counter it on the EW-level.
....meanwhile, our idiotic politicians wer squandering the future of our nations by laundering taxpayer's money into pockets of private- and corporate interests through fighting entirely pointless, 20+ years-long wars against, literally, 'goat-herders' (instead of offering viable alternatives to the same goat-herders through, for example, 'squandering' some of that taxpayer's money for some serious economic development).
Yes, it's absurd but: the resulting excuse was that there's no money for development of EW that would outmatch the Russian. So, the last few people still monitoring the VSRF were 'warning all over the place', but nobody listened.
....and now when there is urgency, idiotic politicians 'must do something', but since they're all fall-outs from the PR-department, that 'something' must be 'big and make bang', so lets rush 40-years old tanks to Ukraine, but not enough shells and even less so EW-systems.
Besides, why should they think about EW? They neither understand it nor know what it can do - and nobody dares installing some EW-emitter near the home of one of top politicians to demonstrate its effectiveness....
- Re. Artillery barrels... indeed: no idea. Would be happy to hear an answer.
I only know that back in 1990-1991, barrels from old US howitzers were used to make 'bunker-busting' GBU-27 bombs.
f*ck. I was afraid that this would be similar to the Shahed - Gepard topic. But I hoped that at least in a field where there is an existing technical advantage (and which general importance is obvious to anybody who ever tried to call somebody with "no signal") there is a less bleak answer. Thank you anyhow - and god save the guys in the trenches.
We've got lots of programmers (including embedded software) in Ukraine. However, the current state of the military technology resembles the state of the army: most companies that were working in the military industry got Soviet-style management, while new businesses lack funds and are afraid of the bureaucracy and of the criminal persecution that often comes to whoever gets funded by the government. As the result, programmers strongly avoid working with Ukrainian businesses, especially on anything related to the government.
Laczi, what you mentioned is called retubing or relining the barrel. The worn out barrel is drilled inside (we’re talking 1-2 cm thickness all around) and a newly made rifled sleeve is inserted. Interlocking steps are machined in both, and they are mated while the outer tube is hot (dilated) and the inner one is cold. Romania did this in the interwar period, on 120 or so Krupp Md 1904 75 mm field guns, which were very worn out after WW1 and on about 460 Putilov Md 1902 76 mm left behind by the Tsar’s armies, most of them new, but with very little ammo available. Both were retubed and rechambered to the French canon de 75 ammo, of which we had over a million rounds but few guns.
The end result is like a rethreaded tire, a working compromise. I seem to remember the Poles and the Finns also did similar things in the same timeframe. I have not read about anything of this kind being done after WW2. Taking into account all the machining, the man-hours, now it is not worth it, a new barrel likely takes less time and money to make. You would need a damn good reason to retube a barrel – see above. In the 70s and 80s the Finns did rebarrel some Soviet 130 or 152 mm arty pieces to 155 mm, Israelis and Indians also made prototypes or small serial production, but all these involve an entirely new barrel mated to the old gun carriage and mechanisms, no retubing involved.
Thanks, I have some faint memories like that the rifling is a separate part in the barrel, but I didn't know if is it possible retubing them? (thank you for the right term.)
If there isn't any industrial scale practice to retube them, then the tricky question is: is the whole media tight-lipped about a megaboost of gun barrel making capacities, or an increasing number of supplied howitzers are becoming useless? I doubt that there were a huge unused production capacity when previously orders were counted in dozens a year and now a dozen would need per week.
I would speculate its a number of factors stacking up.
First, modern metallurgy barrels can take far more rounds than expected - see the post below quoting Rheinmetall that Pzh 2000 barrels can last 20.000 shots instead of the estimated 4.500.
Second, the US should have some M777 spare barrels, Krab is in production so a number of replacements can be sourced, even if at the cost of slowing down production of complete SPH.
Third, for Cold war legacy systems such as M109, FH 70, TRF-1, there should be plenty of spare barrels in depots.
Rheinmetall-Chef: Nehmen Sie die Panzerhaubitze PzH2000, deren Chassis und Waffensysteme Rheinmetall geliefert hat. Wir sagen eigentlich, dass das Rohr nach etwa 4500 Schuss gewechselt werden muss. Die Ukrainer aber schießen bis zu 20.000 Schuss – eigentlich unmöglich. Andere Rohre wären da längst eingeknickt.
Rheinmetall boss: Take the PzH2000 self-propelled howitzer, whose chassis and weapon systems were supplied by Rheinmetall. We actually say that the barrel needs to be changed after about 4500 shots. The Ukrainians, however, shoot up to 20,000 shots - actually impossible. Other pipes would have buckled long ago.
The Russian defense lines are already enormous. Can you estimate roughly how many troops it would take to adequately man these defenses? A trench is only as good as the men who defend it and without enough manpower these trenches are less dangerous i think.
I ask because I heard from Russian sources (the reliability of which is questionable) that Putin or Gerasimov should have ordered the direct front line to be defended with all available men and not to let the Ukrainians even get to the fortified defense lines. What if that were true would be a bad arrangement in my eyes. Have you heard similar or different?
Furthermore, several Russian sources (there is very little from the Ukrainian side due to Opsec) claim that the day before yesterday 70-80% of all Russian reserves were deployed in southern Ukraine, which to me seems a bit like a jack-of-all-trades-in in poker.
What do you think of the reports from these Russian sources?
Nope, I wouldn't even try making such estimations.
Yes, these defences are enormous, but all defences have a weak spot. Foremost: they're fixed in position, which means that one can (indeed: 'must') outflank them. I just do not think Ukrainians and/or allies have spent enough time searching for these weak spots. ....indeed, I doubt if they were ever searching for them.
On the contrary, to me it appears the ZSU is degenerating into a mix of Western-Soviet-style attrition warfare, as fought - insistently, and regardless the circumstances, ever since MacArthur's landing at Inchon. When one is fighting such a war, nobody cares about finesse like searching for weak spots, or expertise in operational-art.
Re. Russian reserves: AFAIK, these are still 'flooding' into southern and eastern Ukraine. So, it might not be 70-80%, 'yet', but is certainly going to be 'more than 80%' in a week or two.
Thanks for the in-depth explanation of what is going on.
I can't believe the AFU is truly attempting to pierce Russians line head-on after telling everybody and first of all the Russians, they were going to attack from this direction. It sounds so .. unnecessary.
Likewise I can't wrap my head around "NATO" thought a handful of not that modern and a couple of brigade hastily trained would successfully carry this task. The hubris. Especially given how NATO performed in Afghanistan and even Syria/Iraq (ie less than impressive).
There has been a lot of WW2 comparison since this war became a full scale invasion last year. Now I am not a big fan of historical analogy. But if I had to compare this one, so far it looks horribly comparable to a famous German offensive in 43. Tragically the Ukrainians waited a long time to get but an handful of wunderwaffe leaving time for the Russians to prepare adequately (especially with mines). The Russians numbers and superiority in firepower should do the rest.
The Germans back in the 43' had to launch the offensive, as their economy was crumbling and their industrial complex could not sustain a prolonged war with the West AND the USSR for a long time.
Meanwhile Ukraine is in an entirely different situation - Russian economy is crumbling and Ukraine has support of the wealthy West... At least in theory, because Western politicans are too scared or too greedy and they simply don't provide Ukraine with enough military support.
This counteroffensive is dictated by the politicans that need some quick victories to acquire more aid to Ukraine. They should have waited more time for Western support - ATACMS, Storm Shadows, F-16 and other jets... And the West must finally acknowledge that it's at war with Russia (not a hot one, at least yet). They need to rapidly increase military spending, start expanding industrial production of ammunition etc...
I understand politic is a big reason why this offensive is being conducted even as the Ukrainians leaders (or at least Zelensky) were less than enthusiast about it.
I think much like the Syrians, the Ukrainians are caught in an impossible political play : they receive less than needed : If they succeed despite the odds, the Western oligarchy says they dont need to receive more help as they are succeeding (basically up to Karkhiv and Kherso). If they fail (aka the logical outcome) or look about to fail, the West says it is hopeless so lets not waste our effort there (the dominant posture in the run up of the full scale invasion and the recurring sound since Bakhmut). To save face the West (especially the US/Biden) talk about long term commitment, for post war F-16 and Abrams tanks. Just like everybody used to say "Assad must go" while actually doing nothing to ensure victory right here right now.
Hell Macron just started again to publicly say the Ukrainians should settle for a negotiated defeat where Russia keeps its conquest. You bet he is not the only one hoping a Ukrainian tactical defeat in this offensive as to pave the way for a surrender and get back to business with Moscow asap
Now regardless of the political play, I merely thought this offensive sounds similar to Zitadelle in that the attacking side is attempting a frontal assault with insufficient forces against a front which has been fortified for months and months. The RU can absorm it with blood. At least they leaders are happy to do that. But the AFU losses will not only be tragic, they will be irreplaceable. Both in lives/equipment and political capital.
Not all the UA reserves have been used yet. The current UA attacks may aim at drawing RU reserves to the south front (as well as to the northern border). Then the full-scale offensive will start elsewhere. And if the RU reserves don't arrive to the south in several days, the main offensive may start in the south as soon as a path through the fortifications is cleared.
Open borders in the beginning of whole scale invasion, especially so appraised beforehand demined Chonhar bridges, prolonged Bakhmut positional war with AFU's heavy casualties, reckless frontal assault against more than enough time prepared ru's fortifications are because of ru's agents Zelensky, Yermak and others help to kill as many of ukrainians and the best of AFU warriors as possible.
the guy is showing the same attack on 3 vehicles. Anyway, FPVs are used by both forces. So, that was expected, but to counter them requires pretty powerful electronic jamming equipment.
A 'counter' to Russian FPVs can already be seen on most of videos released by Putin's PRBS-machinery. See 'broken/unclear picture'. That's one of effects of EW.
Problem: Ukraine still has too few EW-systems in service - because NATO has too few of these, too - and there's no quick solution in sight.
Obviouslt the best place for counteroffensive - are Kursk or Belgorod regions or even Belorus. BUT West banned this. Because West and Moscow empire are business partners, and make money.
Jun 10, 2023·edited Jun 10, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Tom, Thank you for bitter but realistic update. I do hope ZSU is learning the lesson. Hopefully, the low pressure air mass, which is in the area right now, will disable VKS heli and UAV at least for a couple of days. Small notes: Most probably mistyping: GUR MO, not a GRU (Sorry, I have typo too)
I read hundreds comments ... and in shock. 1. People discourse the tactic of 20 centuary, sorry but now ALL these are trash. 21 centuary if you not sleep. So now rulers are drones and so on. Where Moscow already has total dominance. 2. Sorry, but i have to write obvious for 12 years old things: offensive NEED CONCENTRATION. For example 200+ tanks better 500+ in ONE PLACE , so chains anty mine mashine tanks Bradlwys - so number of such chains mast be 30+ in one moment - that opponent can not destroy all of them! But Ukraine has 60 Leopards at all. + now 21 centuary, so huge concentracions - opponent has weapon for work against concentracions. So 20 centuary tactic with 20 centuary weapon not work.
For example. You can use infrared waves for radio, and spacial parabolic antennes for communication. So opponent CAN NOT use electronic warfare to block you.
That why i wtote about parabolic antenes. NOT necesery require line of sight, for example: infrared port for mouse. Of couce antenna have to turn in right diraction in LONG communications. Of cource all this NOT SIMPLE. But we live in 21 centuary. And computer can turn the antenes in right diractions.
Infrared (IR) technology is not typically used for wireless mice because it has a number of limitations that make it less suitable for this application. Firstly, IR signals are easily blocked by obstacles such as walls and furniture, which can result in a loss of connection or cursor movement. This makes it less reliable than other wireless technologies such as Bluetooth or radio frequency (RF).Secondly, IR signals have a limited range, typically around 10 meters. This means that if you want to use your mouse from a distance, you would need to be within this range.Finally, IR technology is also sensitive to interference from other IR sources such as televisions and remote controls, which can disrupt the connection between the mouse and the computer.For these reasons, most wireless mice use other wireless technologies such as Bluetooth or RF, which are more reliable and have a greater range.
Repeaters should be hanging from drones, and they require strong power supplies, thus making the drones heavy and large. Such drones will be vulnerable to air defense systems.
Тарасик, вишь эльфы, недовольны их чудные эльфийские клинки поломатые. И виноваты в этом вы чубы. Табя ждет несколько лет, такой возни. М вообще иди в Саловермахт тебе нададуть Ак 76 года производства, матадор и посадят в посадку под арту и под дрончики. Тарасик буть лапкой причеши чуб и на фронт.
Вам, привет от сообщества https://lostarmour.info/ к нам в ветку попал сей "технический" опус. Мы обсудили, и пришли к выводу, что автору просидевшему на базе в Ираке и Афганестане, и постреливавшему по противнику без тяжелого вооружения. Стоит самому, показать как надо действовать против обороны 58-й армии, в данных условиях на практике. Убивать наглосаксов гораздо приятнее, чем одичалых но все таки русских людей. Для янок то, что происходит этот как бейсбольный матч с попкорном. Для обоих действующих сторон это боль. Тарасики, вот посмотрите, командование ВСУ заставят повторить на все наданное, за все уплочено и внесено в сценарий. И техническая сторона вопроса: при современных технологиях меч в разы сильнее щита, да по сути щит в современной войне сведен к нулю. Без полного воздушного превосходства и уничтожении противника с воздуха как это было в 1991 году в Кувейте, проигрывает тот кто идет вперед первый. Ибо он будет обнаружен первым, а значит уничтожен. Янки привыкли идти только: 1) имея полное господство в воздухе; 2) Подавляющее, многократное огневое и численное превосходство. У Тарасов, его не будет. Единственный успешный их оперативный прорыв под Балаклеей был возможен, ввиду наступления 7-ми полностью боеготовых бригад в оперативную пустоту. Но наступать надо, игра заказана владельцем казино.
....some people are advice-resistant, no matter how kindly nor how often one cautions them...
"Kara Dag", not "Kara Dog"
As a principle, when attacking fortifications, you should pin it in place, then isolate it by simple or double enveloping maneuvers and on the vertical, by para drops or landings. The advance rhythm is slow, 1/2 or 1/4 of the normal one and produces heavy casualties. You also need strong fire support from aviation or artillery. Artillery should concentrate their fire on "breaking sectors" , which have a frontal development of 300-500 meters. Artillery should land hit after hit, shell landing near shell landing, neutralizing everything on that 300 meters area. In these formed corridors you introduce the infantry, company after company, 10-12 if needed and start widening this corridor left and right. Lacking artillery and aviation support will usually get you nowhere.
....as a principle, nobody sane is attacking a fortification.
Sane people are attacking the rear of a fortification - and letting other people die for their country.
If you need to, you can attack fortification, it's hell on Earth but it can be done. But not without massive artillery concentrations and aviation. You don't have the latter two, better don't do it.
Well, as could've been seen the last three days (arguably: not at all in the social media), some of ZSU COs were good enough to run multi-prong assaults, to launch them while it was still night etc. ..... with result of multiple Russian fortifications being outflanked and, subsequently, captured.
In other cases, once Ukrainian artillery became involved in serious, the Russians fled in panic, like in this case: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1454cg6/another_group_of_russians_fleeing_their_destroyed/
....which in turn is 'explaining' all the Russian boasting about how their units heroically and steadfastly defend all attacks, and none has withdrawn...
Again, sobering. Thanks! Would smoke be of any use in such situations? How capable are Russian drones, helos, ground forces of seeing through it? Would attacks on a different front yield the same results?
Yes, at least smoke, or - and even better - night.
But, that's the problem: for the ZSU to run large-scale night-attacks, its COs would have to trust their troops.... while they 'simply know better, period'.
Great write up! What surprised me wasn't that the first tank and IFVs were hit, it was that they sent additional IFVs into the kill zone which were hammered by Ka-52s and whatever else. You dont need to be a military expert to understand that was a silly thing to do since the enemy was more prepared with more assets in the area. So major blunder from ZSU and hope they adjust. Also Eff the guys who betrayed Ukraine and let the Russians drive their way to Melitopol in the first case. My issue though is with the whole military aid we're sending and the lack of western airborne platforms. Why send western tanks and then expect Ukraine to carry out western style combined arms maneuvers without some force of western airborne platforms. Even ISR drones operating at distance from the frontline, Biden WH refused to provide, then went on to lose an even more advanced ISR drone right in Russian controlled waters. These would have helped correct Counter battery fire No? I think a major issue is western politicians being in charge of military matters. Ukraine has to do wonders with Western tanks but not enough artillery to suppress the enemy, with western IFVs but no airborne platforms to detect and hit Russian airborne and ground assets. Would any NATO General take on this task under similar circumstances, I think not. We saw a video of a Western IRIST SLS radar being hit by a lancet and it had no mobile or modular CUAS systems near it to defend it. Is it we're not providing CUAS systems or the Ukrainians were being lazy or are forced to use the CUAS for civilian areas? Why would we send such equipment and not provide such basic solutions. Ground launched APKWS with EO/IR sensors should have started mass production last year. Its been obvious the dangers of cheap drones since before this war but we still see footage of Western equipment moving under the watch of Russian drones. Meaning there aren't enough CUAS platforms. And these platforms aren't expensive. The Vampire CUAS system is not even a $0.5mn system. and would be perfect for protecting AD systems in the rear from loitering drones. West needs to step up and send everything to cover the skies and ground as well as introduce mass production to lower the cost per unit.
Can at least 'sympathise' with most of what you wrote, but: who said any 'Western' armed force would perform better?
I've taken part in a countless number of discussions of the 'Auftragstaktik', just for example. But, I only ever run into 3-4 people actually understanding it. If my memory is not horribly wrong, only one of them ever came into position to apply it actually.
Indeed - and while I hate analogies to earlier wars (especially WWII), but at least I can say, 'you started' ;-) - the Allies didn't win the WWII by copying the Auftragstaktik and then applying it against the Wehrmacht etc., but through a plump war of attrition. And ever since, all the Western armies are repeating the exercise. In Korea, in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Mali... (and that's not to talk about the Soviets/Russians and their clients).
So, why should then anybody be surprised if 'Ukrainians that can't', advised by 'Westerners that can't' - can't find their way out of this, but are degenerating into a war of attrition?
What little 'clever' Ukrainian officers were around, have spent 99% of the last 20 years with intrigues to get such like Zaluzhny into at least a few important positions. What a surprise, they barely managed to teach officers of the regular (pre-24Feb22) ZSU in something like their own version of the Auftragstaktik. Already for this, they were all the time criticised by their Western advisors for being corrupt and incompetent. And an even bigger surprise: the replacements appointed in position of those who were shot away over the last 15 months, promptly returned to the only way they know, which is the Soviet/Zhukov-style war of attrition...
As for 'why are we delivering them this stuff'... Because our politicians are no strategists, but fall-outs from the PR department. Paid advertisers, selling us daydreams about them being the ones to represent us, while actually representing a host of better-paying private- and commercial interests. And the interest of these interests is not to win the war, but to keep on running it - because that's good for business.
Moreover, because they are fall-outs from the PR department, the same politicians - and the military strategists they're supposed to command - have no trace of clue about modern warfare. Even less so about modern weapons technologies.
....'but' then we 'wonder' how comes a IRIS-T system destined for Egypt, but re-routed to Ukraine, arrives there still wearing the desert camo, and lacking CIWS-support?
...or, how comes not only the ZSU, but all of NATO, has not one operational anti-LPGM/UCAV system in service?
This is a war of idiots, nothing else. Excellently paid and widely famed idiots, but still idiots.
Fully agree. There are a lot of people who think we in the West are on top of things in terms of developing the equipment needed to counter modern conventional threats. Otherwise yes, Politicians/idiots are the biggest issue in all this. Ukrainians are fighting for their survival while they play politics and drip feed the Ukrainian army for political points.
Great analysis Tom, adds so much clarity to what is happening, but what an absolute nightmare situation
Oh... thank you.
As the result of sanctions from Hell during 9 years ... Moscow empire has begun MASS production of FPV drones. Which with price 200-2000 $ can easily kill a man, with price 500-3000$ easily eliminate a tank. So NOW Abrams/Leopards/Challengers is a trash which becoming a shit. And as we can see, can be easily destroyed by old russian artillery and mines, and ATGMs and......
So, Leopard 2A5 in real modern war NOT BETTER than T-72B3. Because, Leopard 2 has old optics, infrared cameras, radio, electronics. Leopard/Abrams is bigger - harder to hide, and easy to target. They are too heavy - problems with bridges and mud/soil, transport and repair are real difficulties.
IF USA would gave 10% Abrams 15 month ago + 15% of their artillery - Ukraine would returned even Crimea. But NOW Moscow empire produces enough Orlans Lancets FPV drones and so on, that can annihilate ALL western tanks and artillery and other.
IF West would gave weapon to Ukraine 9 years ago - Ukraine would win in 2014. But West is ally to Moscow so imposed weapon embargo on Ukraine, and we could not buy most needed weapon during 8 years of the war.
IF would West gave weapon BEFORE 24 february 2022 - NO Big war possible. But West planned fast destruction of Ukraine. Absolutely unexpected for West, it plannes FAILED.
West gave enough time for Moscow for prepare to occupy Ukraine, after 24 february enough time for changes of situation, for building a powerful defence, for mobilisation and so on.
24 february West proposed to Ukraine terrible end. Ukrainians not agree and fight desperately. And West propose horror without end. Just genocide. Moscow army kill More => more millions ukrainian children and girls run to EU and USA. West got the most valuable.
And continue business as usual with Moscow.
Oh yes because my tax paying dollars should allllll go to Ukraine while leaving my country under supplied for any new conflict for next decade,
Is your country going to attack its neighbors in the next decade?
My country is the US, we need to preserve at least some of our capabilities in case the Chinese start another SMO
And what are you going to do if both Chinese and Russians start something new? Do you have capabilities for both?
Ukraine is now keeping the Russian army busy, and it is in your interest to make sure Russia is strongly defeated and will not start any new campaign in the following decade. If it is not, both your capabilities and your personnel will suffer losses in the following conflicts, or your country will have to surrender its position in the world.
We are already a decade behind on many different weapon systems in terms of replenishing our supplies, this includes the javelin. Russia is already crippled for the next half century, they’re already a dying military at this point, the US does not fear the Russians. The US will fight the Russians to the last Ukrainians.
The concern is china, I disagree with giving away my tax paying money into an endless conflict by idiotic politicians that have no idea what they’re doing, except doing stuff that will get them re-elected. You didn’t pay for the weapons, I did.
Russia is right now building a factory that will produce 6000 long-range kamikaze drones a year, and they double or tripled their missile and tank production. And they have as many nukes as US does.
Will US intervene when Russia attacks yet another non-Nato country? Will US intervene if Russia sends the drones and tanks to the Baltic Nato states? Is US going to do anything at all if the thousands of Russian-built drones end up in the hands of US opponents and start attacking US bases or aircraft carriers?
Hm. You manipulate. In reality USA just make money on ukrainians blood, by MANY ways. For example advertisement of american weapon ALREADY gave 100+ billions $ to USA. AND USA sold gas to Europe .. cost aa how many billions $? With prices sky high. American companies Halliburton Schlumberger Baker Haghers , Weatherford produce HALF of russian oil and get many billions profits. USA and EU still buy russian oil and oil products and metals and other goods ... with DISCONT! During 8 years of this war USA invested in Moscow empire 100+ billions $, and got huge profits, + i can add 100 more facts. For example approx 1 trillion $ run from Europe to USA. LETScompare: USA spent REAL money from budget on weapon help for Ukraine less than 3 billions $. 1. Utilisarion million shells costs huge money, so USA save dollars and send them to Ukraine, the same for rockets, mines, .. and even for Patriots. 2. We have to look at SELF COST, not on CORRUPTED prices in 2-5-6 times higher! 3. For MOST sent weapon USA NOT produce replacemant, because sent mostly RUBBISH, mich Not need itself.
More examples.
USA declared sanctions on russian Rusal(aluminium and others). Capitalisation dropped to Hell. American companies BOUGHT shares. And remove sanctions from Rusal. Cost of these shares fly to sky and USA got several billions $ on this....... "friendship and protecting Ukraine"
....while your taxpayer's money is so much better spent for constructing bases in 85+ countries and fighting aggressive, yet pointless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq?
I’d rather my tax paying dollars go towards the hospital I work at instead of the 40 years of pointless interventions that has left countless friends of mine with PTSD and life altering wounds. We have hand held the Europeans so much they have failed to uphold their side of NATO’s deal.
No doubt about the European part of NATO wholeheartedly cooperating with Putin, and disarming all the time. But, we didn't go wasting trillions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
....nor did we clandestinelly deploy 15,000 troops (foremost PMCs) to Uganda and Congo in order to fight a gang of 200 wannabe-islamists, or 'direct' Saudi Arabia into an aggression on Yemen.
Somehow, can't imagine that's good - either for hospitals in the USA, or a possible confrontation with the PRC: thus, it could be your governments are wasting your taxpayer's money in wrong places, too?
Never will I deny that my country does all these interventions, and I will restate what I said in previous comments, these interventions were extremely wasteful and did not improve my fellow citizens living standards at all. And I never will deny that my country wastes tax paying dollars in all the wrong places. Especially when they donate everything but enough SHORADs to the Ukrainians, which means they need to donate more and more later on. Can’t let them win too early, need to fight the Russians til the last Ukrainian
Yesterday Leo A6 was easily hit and burnt by Russian dron. Russians knew that A4 modification of Leo is week (how many of them Turkey lost in process of “punishment” of Kurdish territories) but now they discovered that A6 has the same week protection
I don't believe that Leo A6 was destroyed by the UAV. It struck the tanks side setting off upper turret smoke dischargers and an immediate white plume. But typically video cuts out before a better determination could be made.
It wasn't.
It's just like with that Lancet-attack on the IRIS-T-radar: everybody claiming 'destroyed', while the LPGM actually hit the top of the antenna and ricochetted off it. The radar was back in operation mere 30 minutes later....
About “West …continue business as usual”: I am very sorry but Ukraine still continue pumping Russian oil and gas right now through Ukrainian pipeline system, yes? Just business, yes?
Sorry but Russia was not interested in occupation of Ukraine. The offer was quite clear “Please, stay neutral, we need safety belt between West and East”. Ukraine decided to join NATO /EU. In February 2022 Putin’s plan was to go in, to sign (under Russian pressure) an agreement/promise Ukraine to stay neutral and go out. That is why they visited Kiev suburbs. But all players participating in this terrible story decided that “let’s be the war”.
Very sorry again but Ukraine has nothing important for Russia: depleted natural resources? Russia have much richer coal, iron ore, oil/gas fields. Ukrainian industry? Ukraine lost everything during post-Soviet period - perfect super-heavy air cargo Antonov plant produce nothing last 20(?) years and technical documentation was sold to China; perfect Nikolaev shipbuilding plant doesn’t produce ships last 20(?) years; specialists of perfect airspace KB Yuzhnoe were relocated to Russia/China many years ago and again, it produces nothing; full scale car manufacturing facility (LUAZ and Zaporogetc were perfect cars for country side used in all USSR) was converted many years ago into foreign car assembling facility (all technical /design competences were lost as result). And so on. Agriculture? Russia produces more.
Occupation wasn’t in Putin plans - Ukraine has nothing to be occupied. But Crimea is absolutely different story. It was very important for Russia. But again from safety point of view only.
You lied: "russia was not interesting in ocupation of Ukraine". The lie from the begining
Ukraine has NO CHOICE but "pump oil to Europe", because Europe demand THIS .. no choice. IF Ukraine does not pump gas (you lied gas not oil!)) Europe will help russia even MORE than now, and block any help for Ukraine. Dark blackmail
This is not correct - Hungary consumes Russian oil from Druzhba pipeline. Direction of this pipeline is Russia-Belorussia- Lviv (Ukraine)-Hungary.
And, please, give me more details about huge value of occupation of Ukraine. What do you have and this thing is absent in Russia? Only Ukrainian location as a safety belt keeping significant distance between NATO and Russia has a value for Russia. In case of occupation of Ukraine this problem will not be solved - two armies will stay 10 m away from each other on Polish border.
For example, Turkey is a safety belt between Europe and islamic world too; that is why Turkey will never be a part of united Europe. This is simply not smart.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_conducting_a_special_military_operation#Analysis_of_Putin's_claims
Russia already had a long border with NATO, which is even longer now as Finland had to join the alliance to avoid the fate of Ukraine.
Agree. But Putin is mad about safety. So, initial idea of safety belt between two armies in not bad, yes? For example, it is better to keep far away from each other India and Pakistan.
A stray Lamb stood drinking early one morning on the bank of a woodland stream. That very same morning a hungry Wolf came by farther up the stream, hunting for something to eat. He soon got his eyes on the Lamb. As a rule Mr. Wolf snapped up such delicious morsels without making any bones about it, but this Lamb looked so very helpless and innocent that the Wolf felt he ought to have some kind of an excuse for taking its life.
"How dare you paddle around in my stream and stir up all the mud!" he shouted fiercely. "You deserve to be punished severely for your rashness!"
"But, your highness," replied the trembling Lamb, "do not be angry! I cannot possibly muddy the water you are drinking up there. Remember, you are upstream and I am downstream."
"You do muddy it!" retorted the Wolf savagely. "And besides, I have heard that you told lies about me last year!" "How could I have done so?" pleaded the Lamb. "I wasn't born until this year."
"If it wasn't you, it was your brother!"
"I have no brothers."
"Well, then," snarled the Wolf, "It was someone in your family anyway. But no matter who it was, I do not intend to be talked out of my breakfast."
And without more words the Wolf seized the poor Lamb and carried her off to the forest.
The tyrant can always find an excuse for his tyranny.
The unjust will not listen to the reasoning of the innocent.
“Russian oil supplies via southern Druzhba pipeline (this is exactly route “Russia-Belorussia-Lviv, Ukraine-Eastern Europe”) to rise 16% in June”.
Your suggestion that I am a liar is incorrect. Please, say “I am very sorry to blame you; Ukraine still pumps Russian oil through Ukrainian pipeline system ”. :-)
Not the happiest reading, but that's war. Two questions, just to make the things a little clearer for me:
- Electronic warfare is a two way street. Also, usually not the Russian electronic devices and parts are necessary for the western gadgets, but the other way. How could the Russian EW and ECM be so effective when - one would think - the western counterparts should be at least that good? Being able to jam them at least as much as they can do? One of the most advanced and useful feature of the modern western SPGs is their shoot-and-scout ability - but only if the battlefield communication is working.
- Artillery: propably not your table, but maybe another reader can answer. What happens with the worn out artillery barrels? Are those scrapped and must be replaced with a new one, or can those be "replenished", replacing only the rifling? If the later, how long does it take? I ask it because there are a lot of news about the NATO ammo supplies, but very little about the guns. AFAIK a 155mm howitzer barrel is good about 3000 full-charge shot. Considering the Ukrainian demands for ammo, no barrel can last more than 3-4 months - be it a Pz2000, Caesar or M777. Which means that about 1/3 of all the available artillery has to be in the repairshop at any given time.
- How can the Russian EW be as effective?
Pudding is preparing this war at least since 2016-2017, if not already since the late 2000s (say: 2008 or so). That was enough time for the VSRF to study how is NATO operating, and how to counter it on the EW-level.
....meanwhile, our idiotic politicians wer squandering the future of our nations by laundering taxpayer's money into pockets of private- and corporate interests through fighting entirely pointless, 20+ years-long wars against, literally, 'goat-herders' (instead of offering viable alternatives to the same goat-herders through, for example, 'squandering' some of that taxpayer's money for some serious economic development).
Yes, it's absurd but: the resulting excuse was that there's no money for development of EW that would outmatch the Russian. So, the last few people still monitoring the VSRF were 'warning all over the place', but nobody listened.
....and now when there is urgency, idiotic politicians 'must do something', but since they're all fall-outs from the PR-department, that 'something' must be 'big and make bang', so lets rush 40-years old tanks to Ukraine, but not enough shells and even less so EW-systems.
Besides, why should they think about EW? They neither understand it nor know what it can do - and nobody dares installing some EW-emitter near the home of one of top politicians to demonstrate its effectiveness....
- Re. Artillery barrels... indeed: no idea. Would be happy to hear an answer.
I only know that back in 1990-1991, barrels from old US howitzers were used to make 'bunker-busting' GBU-27 bombs.
f*ck. I was afraid that this would be similar to the Shahed - Gepard topic. But I hoped that at least in a field where there is an existing technical advantage (and which general importance is obvious to anybody who ever tried to call somebody with "no signal") there is a less bleak answer. Thank you anyhow - and god save the guys in the trenches.
Nowadays, EW hardware is no problem to develop quickly.
....but EW-software....that's taking 'years', literally.
We've got lots of programmers (including embedded software) in Ukraine. However, the current state of the military technology resembles the state of the army: most companies that were working in the military industry got Soviet-style management, while new businesses lack funds and are afraid of the bureaucracy and of the criminal persecution that often comes to whoever gets funded by the government. As the result, programmers strongly avoid working with Ukrainian businesses, especially on anything related to the government.
Sad to hear that....
Of course, barrels have to be replaced regularly.
Laczi, what you mentioned is called retubing or relining the barrel. The worn out barrel is drilled inside (we’re talking 1-2 cm thickness all around) and a newly made rifled sleeve is inserted. Interlocking steps are machined in both, and they are mated while the outer tube is hot (dilated) and the inner one is cold. Romania did this in the interwar period, on 120 or so Krupp Md 1904 75 mm field guns, which were very worn out after WW1 and on about 460 Putilov Md 1902 76 mm left behind by the Tsar’s armies, most of them new, but with very little ammo available. Both were retubed and rechambered to the French canon de 75 ammo, of which we had over a million rounds but few guns.
The end result is like a rethreaded tire, a working compromise. I seem to remember the Poles and the Finns also did similar things in the same timeframe. I have not read about anything of this kind being done after WW2. Taking into account all the machining, the man-hours, now it is not worth it, a new barrel likely takes less time and money to make. You would need a damn good reason to retube a barrel – see above. In the 70s and 80s the Finns did rebarrel some Soviet 130 or 152 mm arty pieces to 155 mm, Israelis and Indians also made prototypes or small serial production, but all these involve an entirely new barrel mated to the old gun carriage and mechanisms, no retubing involved.
Thanks, I have some faint memories like that the rifling is a separate part in the barrel, but I didn't know if is it possible retubing them? (thank you for the right term.)
If there isn't any industrial scale practice to retube them, then the tricky question is: is the whole media tight-lipped about a megaboost of gun barrel making capacities, or an increasing number of supplied howitzers are becoming useless? I doubt that there were a huge unused production capacity when previously orders were counted in dozens a year and now a dozen would need per week.
I would speculate its a number of factors stacking up.
First, modern metallurgy barrels can take far more rounds than expected - see the post below quoting Rheinmetall that Pzh 2000 barrels can last 20.000 shots instead of the estimated 4.500.
Second, the US should have some M777 spare barrels, Krab is in production so a number of replacements can be sourced, even if at the cost of slowing down production of complete SPH.
Third, for Cold war legacy systems such as M109, FH 70, TRF-1, there should be plenty of spare barrels in depots.
US resumed the production of M777 recently. Don't worry, all spare parts will be supplied promptly
Rheinmetall-Chef: Nehmen Sie die Panzerhaubitze PzH2000, deren Chassis und Waffensysteme Rheinmetall geliefert hat. Wir sagen eigentlich, dass das Rohr nach etwa 4500 Schuss gewechselt werden muss. Die Ukrainer aber schießen bis zu 20.000 Schuss – eigentlich unmöglich. Andere Rohre wären da längst eingeknickt.
https://www.rnd.de/wirtschaft/rheinmetall-chef-kein-land-in-europa-ist-gut-auf-einen-ueberfall-vorbereitet-4T3P6JJEEJBAXHAVG4VOY6GFWY.html
Rheinmetall boss: Take the PzH2000 self-propelled howitzer, whose chassis and weapon systems were supplied by Rheinmetall. We actually say that the barrel needs to be changed after about 4500 shots. The Ukrainians, however, shoot up to 20,000 shots - actually impossible. Other pipes would have buckled long ago.
The Russian defense lines are already enormous. Can you estimate roughly how many troops it would take to adequately man these defenses? A trench is only as good as the men who defend it and without enough manpower these trenches are less dangerous i think.
I ask because I heard from Russian sources (the reliability of which is questionable) that Putin or Gerasimov should have ordered the direct front line to be defended with all available men and not to let the Ukrainians even get to the fortified defense lines. What if that were true would be a bad arrangement in my eyes. Have you heard similar or different?
Furthermore, several Russian sources (there is very little from the Ukrainian side due to Opsec) claim that the day before yesterday 70-80% of all Russian reserves were deployed in southern Ukraine, which to me seems a bit like a jack-of-all-trades-in in poker.
What do you think of the reports from these Russian sources?
Nope, I wouldn't even try making such estimations.
Yes, these defences are enormous, but all defences have a weak spot. Foremost: they're fixed in position, which means that one can (indeed: 'must') outflank them. I just do not think Ukrainians and/or allies have spent enough time searching for these weak spots. ....indeed, I doubt if they were ever searching for them.
On the contrary, to me it appears the ZSU is degenerating into a mix of Western-Soviet-style attrition warfare, as fought - insistently, and regardless the circumstances, ever since MacArthur's landing at Inchon. When one is fighting such a war, nobody cares about finesse like searching for weak spots, or expertise in operational-art.
Re. Russian reserves: AFAIK, these are still 'flooding' into southern and eastern Ukraine. So, it might not be 70-80%, 'yet', but is certainly going to be 'more than 80%' in a week or two.
Thanks for the in-depth explanation of what is going on.
I can't believe the AFU is truly attempting to pierce Russians line head-on after telling everybody and first of all the Russians, they were going to attack from this direction. It sounds so .. unnecessary.
Likewise I can't wrap my head around "NATO" thought a handful of not that modern and a couple of brigade hastily trained would successfully carry this task. The hubris. Especially given how NATO performed in Afghanistan and even Syria/Iraq (ie less than impressive).
There has been a lot of WW2 comparison since this war became a full scale invasion last year. Now I am not a big fan of historical analogy. But if I had to compare this one, so far it looks horribly comparable to a famous German offensive in 43. Tragically the Ukrainians waited a long time to get but an handful of wunderwaffe leaving time for the Russians to prepare adequately (especially with mines). The Russians numbers and superiority in firepower should do the rest.
The Germans back in the 43' had to launch the offensive, as their economy was crumbling and their industrial complex could not sustain a prolonged war with the West AND the USSR for a long time.
Meanwhile Ukraine is in an entirely different situation - Russian economy is crumbling and Ukraine has support of the wealthy West... At least in theory, because Western politicans are too scared or too greedy and they simply don't provide Ukraine with enough military support.
This counteroffensive is dictated by the politicans that need some quick victories to acquire more aid to Ukraine. They should have waited more time for Western support - ATACMS, Storm Shadows, F-16 and other jets... And the West must finally acknowledge that it's at war with Russia (not a hot one, at least yet). They need to rapidly increase military spending, start expanding industrial production of ammunition etc...
I understand politic is a big reason why this offensive is being conducted even as the Ukrainians leaders (or at least Zelensky) were less than enthusiast about it.
I think much like the Syrians, the Ukrainians are caught in an impossible political play : they receive less than needed : If they succeed despite the odds, the Western oligarchy says they dont need to receive more help as they are succeeding (basically up to Karkhiv and Kherso). If they fail (aka the logical outcome) or look about to fail, the West says it is hopeless so lets not waste our effort there (the dominant posture in the run up of the full scale invasion and the recurring sound since Bakhmut). To save face the West (especially the US/Biden) talk about long term commitment, for post war F-16 and Abrams tanks. Just like everybody used to say "Assad must go" while actually doing nothing to ensure victory right here right now.
Hell Macron just started again to publicly say the Ukrainians should settle for a negotiated defeat where Russia keeps its conquest. You bet he is not the only one hoping a Ukrainian tactical defeat in this offensive as to pave the way for a surrender and get back to business with Moscow asap
Now regardless of the political play, I merely thought this offensive sounds similar to Zitadelle in that the attacking side is attempting a frontal assault with insufficient forces against a front which has been fortified for months and months. The RU can absorm it with blood. At least they leaders are happy to do that. But the AFU losses will not only be tragic, they will be irreplaceable. Both in lives/equipment and political capital.
Not all the UA reserves have been used yet. The current UA attacks may aim at drawing RU reserves to the south front (as well as to the northern border). Then the full-scale offensive will start elsewhere. And if the RU reserves don't arrive to the south in several days, the main offensive may start in the south as soon as a path through the fortifications is cleared.
Open borders in the beginning of whole scale invasion, especially so appraised beforehand demined Chonhar bridges, prolonged Bakhmut positional war with AFU's heavy casualties, reckless frontal assault against more than enough time prepared ru's fortifications are because of ru's agents Zelensky, Yermak and others help to kill as many of ukrainians and the best of AFU warriors as possible.
What about the FPV drones? How can Ukraine counter them?
They took out quite a few Ukrainian armour:
https://t.me/romanov_92/39142
the guy is showing the same attack on 3 vehicles. Anyway, FPVs are used by both forces. So, that was expected, but to counter them requires pretty powerful electronic jamming equipment.
A 'counter' to Russian FPVs can already be seen on most of videos released by Putin's PRBS-machinery. See 'broken/unclear picture'. That's one of effects of EW.
Problem: Ukraine still has too few EW-systems in service - because NATO has too few of these, too - and there's no quick solution in sight.
Something like these? https://drone-detection-system.com/aartos-dds/product-overview/?gclid=CjwKCAjw4ZWkBhA4EiwAVJXwqZwHEOxArYJMC30nNR-tb2UiDRVYOVrM4D1oSjnUAyIAYYQgg49e-hoCAP4QAvD_BwE#video-play
Obviouslt the best place for counteroffensive - are Kursk or Belgorod regions or even Belorus. BUT West banned this. Because West and Moscow empire are business partners, and make money.
Ceterum censeo exercitum Russium esse exterminandem
;)
We'll get there: meanwhile got so many proposals for correction, I'm not sure any more, which is right... ;)
Tom, Thank you for bitter but realistic update. I do hope ZSU is learning the lesson. Hopefully, the low pressure air mass, which is in the area right now, will disable VKS heli and UAV at least for a couple of days. Small notes: Most probably mistyping: GUR MO, not a GRU (Sorry, I have typo too)
. Keeping finger crossed and God bless ZSU.
I read hundreds comments ... and in shock. 1. People discourse the tactic of 20 centuary, sorry but now ALL these are trash. 21 centuary if you not sleep. So now rulers are drones and so on. Where Moscow already has total dominance. 2. Sorry, but i have to write obvious for 12 years old things: offensive NEED CONCENTRATION. For example 200+ tanks better 500+ in ONE PLACE , so chains anty mine mashine tanks Bradlwys - so number of such chains mast be 30+ in one moment - that opponent can not destroy all of them! But Ukraine has 60 Leopards at all. + now 21 centuary, so huge concentracions - opponent has weapon for work against concentracions. So 20 centuary tactic with 20 centuary weapon not work.
For example. You can use infrared waves for radio, and spacial parabolic antennes for communication. So opponent CAN NOT use electronic warfare to block you.
Infrared waves require line of sight and are directional.
That why i wtote about parabolic antenes. NOT necesery require line of sight, for example: infrared port for mouse. Of couce antenna have to turn in right diraction in LONG communications. Of cource all this NOT SIMPLE. But we live in 21 centuary. And computer can turn the antenes in right diractions.
Infrared (IR) technology is not typically used for wireless mice because it has a number of limitations that make it less suitable for this application. Firstly, IR signals are easily blocked by obstacles such as walls and furniture, which can result in a loss of connection or cursor movement. This makes it less reliable than other wireless technologies such as Bluetooth or radio frequency (RF).Secondly, IR signals have a limited range, typically around 10 meters. This means that if you want to use your mouse from a distance, you would need to be within this range.Finally, IR technology is also sensitive to interference from other IR sources such as televisions and remote controls, which can disrupt the connection between the mouse and the computer.For these reasons, most wireless mice use other wireless technologies such as Bluetooth or RF, which are more reliable and have a greater range.
https://www.quora.com/Why-can-we-not-use-the-IR-technology-for-a-wireless-mouse
And using repeaters ... but we speak about comunications which can not be shut down by enemy
Repeaters should be hanging from drones, and they require strong power supplies, thus making the drones heavy and large. Such drones will be vulnerable to air defense systems.
IF it be easy - it would be made long ago. But we live in 21 century.
Тарасик, вишь эльфы, недовольны их чудные эльфийские клинки поломатые. И виноваты в этом вы чубы. Табя ждет несколько лет, такой возни. М вообще иди в Саловермахт тебе нададуть Ак 76 года производства, матадор и посадят в посадку под арту и под дрончики. Тарасик буть лапкой причеши чуб и на фронт.
Here is a technical discussion. It is better not to use sensitive jokes here.
Вам, привет от сообщества https://lostarmour.info/ к нам в ветку попал сей "технический" опус. Мы обсудили, и пришли к выводу, что автору просидевшему на базе в Ираке и Афганестане, и постреливавшему по противнику без тяжелого вооружения. Стоит самому, показать как надо действовать против обороны 58-й армии, в данных условиях на практике. Убивать наглосаксов гораздо приятнее, чем одичалых но все таки русских людей. Для янок то, что происходит этот как бейсбольный матч с попкорном. Для обоих действующих сторон это боль. Тарасики, вот посмотрите, командование ВСУ заставят повторить на все наданное, за все уплочено и внесено в сценарий. И техническая сторона вопроса: при современных технологиях меч в разы сильнее щита, да по сути щит в современной войне сведен к нулю. Без полного воздушного превосходства и уничтожении противника с воздуха как это было в 1991 году в Кувейте, проигрывает тот кто идет вперед первый. Ибо он будет обнаружен первым, а значит уничтожен. Янки привыкли идти только: 1) имея полное господство в воздухе; 2) Подавляющее, многократное огневое и численное превосходство. У Тарасов, его не будет. Единственный успешный их оперативный прорыв под Балаклеей был возможен, ввиду наступления 7-ми полностью боеготовых бригад в оперативную пустоту. Но наступать надо, игра заказана владельцем казино.
You forgot to list the cyber-bats on dope cultivated in Ukrainian bio-labs...
Think, it might be better to go back to lostarmour.info - and stay there.
Do you realy think, that i will read you comment more than 20 words?