Yes, it is edited, just an extra number is photoshopped. Besides the units flag is UAV unit, unlikely to be in the forward position.
But it does not take away the opportunity thar some of the units were (or are) that close. Or if you look into this situation a bit differently, even before UA recon units were able to infiltrate and go as far as 600 km into enemy's territory, to strike airport for example. What will happen with such a loose operational situation, especially with all those people running around?
Nice report Tom, I really enjoyed your take on Syrskiy motivations, though I am not sure it is chess. It this rather a Go game, and this move was "tengen white" opening. Which gives a lot of flexibility, but is done only if enemy is of equal strength and is a bit overstretched in his first move :)) Let see how it goes over the weekend.
Yep, Ukrainian spelling is so obvious and in-your-face to anyone speaking Ukrainian OR Russian that it's kinda raising questions whom exactly the author (of the photo) was trying to fool with such an obvious fake. :)
In my opinion, Ukrainian forces was surprised when russia was defeated so easy. And now Ukranian Army dont have any plans what they have to do. If Ukrainian forces are isolated in this salient, it will turn out to be history from the Krynki bridgehead.
I hope at least that the Ukrainian army (i.e., it's strategic & tactical leadership) has a solid plan for an orderly withdrawal if/when the occasion arises.
I'm not so much concerned: Kursk is an entirely different kind of battlefield. There's no VDV around (yet) - and even Wagner isn't what it was without having 20,000+ convicts to spend.
i doubt that they were surprised, because if they started this operation expecting much stronger resistance, then it has even less sense than it shows now. It would have been way less result for way more resources and the ZSU doesn't have abundant resources even without that.
So IMHO it is either a larger scale PR- and morale-enhancing raid and they will retreat soon, or there should be followed by a second phase very quickly. As it is said in the post: it is a chess play, where most of the reactions are written in the playbooks. If the ZSU does this, the VSRF would very likely do that, and so on. It means that IF (big IF) the ZSU manages to pull an unexpected move, they may have unexpected successes.
My problem is that even now I can't see anything which even in a few months timeline could be considered as a success from this operation? The PR humiliation of the VSRF is irrelevant - they had already been humiliated many times, it didn't undermined Putin's power by an inch.
Lots of captured vehicles, POWs, ammo, several battalions of k…uddled ruzzians - to me it has been success so far. The initiative right now is in ZSU hands, and this war is a lot about the initiative.
The strongest effect by now is the involvement of Russian conscripts. All the post-soviet countries live with the trauma of conscripts dying in the alien conflict of Afghanistan. This is why Zelensky keeps conscripts out of the war.
Oh yes the theory of inevitable and inexorable Russian victory
There is another theory of inevitable Russian economic collapse, like under Brezhnev. Btw the current Russian minister of defense started his career in the economics ministry under same Brezhnev
who the hell has spoken anything about "inevitable and inexorable Russian victory"? It's nice to comment about the inevitable collapse of the Russian economy, but sorry, even in my safe home I feel disgusting when somebody says that it's ok, we are on the best track to Ukrainian victory, because in the end the Russians will collapse. Just have to sacrifice a few more tens of thousands of Ukrainians, let the Russians destroys a few more hundreds of villages, homes, factories and hospitals, but hey, in the end everything will be fine.
The nazi germany was able to produce weapons until the minute the first allied or russian soldier knocked on the factory door and despite all of their economy went to trash, they surrendered only when they were defeated by military - not by economic problems. Even after two and a half years Ukraine suffers from lacking the necessary amount of weapons to win. It's a pity that they can't shoot with optimistic comments and supportive press releases, they were in Moscow now.
I think the Ukrainian people in the zones occupied y Russia are suffering much more than the people of free Ukraine. Please stop with the fake concern for the suffering of Ukrrainians.
I'm starting to think one of the possible goals may be not so much to use any captured (and held) territories as a direct "bargain" in any negotiations to come, than to use them as a kind of "counter-Trump insurance". I.e. if he happens to win AND tries to make good on his promise to "end the war in 24 hours", then just freezing everything as-is would be just as unacceptable for Russia as it is for Ukraine - even if it's just Sudzha and a few villages around it, they'd still never agree to just leave them under Ukrainian control (and good luck forcing Ukraine to withdraw without Russia withdrawing elsewhere). And if it's something more - all the better.
Yup. Have captured hundreds of vehicles already, plus one big ammo dump (and that perfectly intact). Indeed, the finding of the latter caused a probelm with removing POWs from the battlefield, because suddenly there were not enough trucks left...
- It was on Russian territory, so they hadn't written down its coordinates.
- Their books still contain the dump as their own and would require way too much paperwork to account for its destruction.
- The colonel in charge of blasting dumps in the region had been drunk, and by the time he sobered up enough to give an order, the attackers had removed the ammo already.
I have seen little evidence of this and it's a mystery what those vehicles were doing there. The Russian troops on the border did not need hundreds of vehicles. Placing extra hundreds of vehicles near the border will expose them to drone and artillery attacks.
Thank for report. I heard interesting theory, that possible purpose of operation is defense. Firstly, obviously such an offensive disrupted all invasion plans of VSRF, in particular by destruction of military assets and warehouses with ammunition/fuel in close rear. Secondly, the author of the theory also claimed that a terrain of Ukraine near border is quite open and flat, whereas captured part of Kursk has changing heights,a lot of dense forest and a few small rivers, making it much better to build long-term defense, if logistics will be improved. It, of course, doesn't exclude obvious bonus to destroy more Russian troops in their the most vulnerable position (transportation)
The counterattack planned by the west, using NATO tactics, failed. Ukrainian planned operation, using Soviet tactics, succeeded more. Something for NATO tacticians to think about, or maybe their (in)competence raises them above such reflections.
Very true. One doctrine requires air superiority, the other doesn't, so maybe NATO planners now know what they should have known all along: that forcing an unsuitable doctrine on an ally unequipped for it is a bad idea. That said, Ukrainians achieved local drone superiority and cleared the way for the mech units. Maybe everyone's war-fighting doctrines need re-thinking?
Nevertheless, planning an operation that requires a certain amount of material without providing the necessary amount of said material speaks for itself.
The countrrattack in 2023 was not planned by the west, e.g. NATO advisers were against diverting attack in Bakchmut and Kupiansk, they advised to concentrate in one direction only. And other different things ...
Ok, so on the first few paragraphs I have some anecdotal, primarily game/secondarily simulation based nonsense to spout. Forever it has been a common theme of mine to utilize Russian and Soviet tactics with western equipment, and western tactics with bloc/pact equipment. It leads to frankly ridiculous results sometimes. In an operation where everything should have been obliterated you end up with ridiculous 75:1 ratios against what should have been absolute death. (I always figured this was wargame nonsense but fuck me, maybe if you do have equipment of a certain tech level and function(thermals, working), it isn’t just an artifact of “what if”.)
Lovely report. Maneuver warfare at its purest form… and with a general versed in Soviet doctrine driving it with western equipment is icing on the cake. Reinforcing Russian infantry formations streaming in are in a rough time for a while.
So, Syrsky really was paying atento in their soviet courses.
Well, so this is a soviet style attack, but with grinding resourses "alla" Afrika Korps. Because now they UAF are the masters on integrate soviet and NATO equipment.
Thanks as always Tom. Looking forward to see what's going on.
„at least unless Gerasimov manages to drag, kick and push enough of VSRF troops out of positions in northern Kharkiv, Kremina, Bakhmut and similar places and bring them to the *Kharkiv* area.
On italian newspapers there is all kinds of heroic defenses like 500Kg UMPK falling on Ukrainian mercenaries aggregations or even thermobaric missiles obliterating hundreds of invaders. Of course the source is the MOD of russia. All according to plans.
The grey flag photo is actually edited and is from Ukrainian border (Kursk is written in Ukrainian).
Thx.
If so, it's one of best edits I've ever seen (and I'm really not easy to fool with this kind of things).
Didn't really need to edit much, so looks pretty legit (unless really pay attention to the ь), It's here on street view — https://www.google.com/maps/@51.1674426,35.1269293,3a,75y,83.87h,80.17t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sS-gtMAMm_Av-c0yXfycyyw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D9.831658433727341%26panoid%3DS-gtMAMm_Av-c0yXfycyyw%26yaw%3D83.87083794804987!7i13312!8i6656?coh=205410&entry=ttu
Yes, it is edited, just an extra number is photoshopped. Besides the units flag is UAV unit, unlikely to be in the forward position.
But it does not take away the opportunity thar some of the units were (or are) that close. Or if you look into this situation a bit differently, even before UA recon units were able to infiltrate and go as far as 600 km into enemy's territory, to strike airport for example. What will happen with such a loose operational situation, especially with all those people running around?
Nice report Tom, I really enjoyed your take on Syrskiy motivations, though I am not sure it is chess. It this rather a Go game, and this move was "tengen white" opening. Which gives a lot of flexibility, but is done only if enemy is of equal strength and is a bit overstretched in his first move :)) Let see how it goes over the weekend.
AI brings photoshopping to the next level. I can photoshop now in 5 minutes what could take an hour before.
https://pasteboard.co/uDmqiJFuBGCT.jpg
Sure. Just that I'm good at recognising AI-generated stuff, too. Comes from 30+ years of experience in working with the Photoshop.
That's why I stress: this one was really excellent.
Yep, Ukrainian spelling is so obvious and in-your-face to anyone speaking Ukrainian OR Russian that it's kinda raising questions whom exactly the author (of the photo) was trying to fool with such an obvious fake. :)
Yeah, it might have been intended as a joke..
In my opinion, Ukrainian forces was surprised when russia was defeated so easy. And now Ukranian Army dont have any plans what they have to do. If Ukrainian forces are isolated in this salient, it will turn out to be history from the Krynki bridgehead.
....if so, at least there's no river in their back...
I hope at least that the Ukrainian army (i.e., it's strategic & tactical leadership) has a solid plan for an orderly withdrawal if/when the occasion arises.
I'm not so much concerned: Kursk is an entirely different kind of battlefield. There's no VDV around (yet) - and even Wagner isn't what it was without having 20,000+ convicts to spend.
....and there's no Sodol around.
i doubt that they were surprised, because if they started this operation expecting much stronger resistance, then it has even less sense than it shows now. It would have been way less result for way more resources and the ZSU doesn't have abundant resources even without that.
So IMHO it is either a larger scale PR- and morale-enhancing raid and they will retreat soon, or there should be followed by a second phase very quickly. As it is said in the post: it is a chess play, where most of the reactions are written in the playbooks. If the ZSU does this, the VSRF would very likely do that, and so on. It means that IF (big IF) the ZSU manages to pull an unexpected move, they may have unexpected successes.
My problem is that even now I can't see anything which even in a few months timeline could be considered as a success from this operation? The PR humiliation of the VSRF is irrelevant - they had already been humiliated many times, it didn't undermined Putin's power by an inch.
A second phase is expected to be a direct continuation of the steamroll, unless the first is forcibly stopped prematurely - which is not the case.
So unless 'that's all folks', then something is still not in place to continue.... Waitin'...
I don't think that they are done yet.
Wait for it...
Lots of captured vehicles, POWs, ammo, several battalions of k…uddled ruzzians - to me it has been success so far. The initiative right now is in ZSU hands, and this war is a lot about the initiative.
The strongest effect by now is the involvement of Russian conscripts. All the post-soviet countries live with the trauma of conscripts dying in the alien conflict of Afghanistan. This is why Zelensky keeps conscripts out of the war.
Oh yes the theory of inevitable and inexorable Russian victory
There is another theory of inevitable Russian economic collapse, like under Brezhnev. Btw the current Russian minister of defense started his career in the economics ministry under same Brezhnev
who the hell has spoken anything about "inevitable and inexorable Russian victory"? It's nice to comment about the inevitable collapse of the Russian economy, but sorry, even in my safe home I feel disgusting when somebody says that it's ok, we are on the best track to Ukrainian victory, because in the end the Russians will collapse. Just have to sacrifice a few more tens of thousands of Ukrainians, let the Russians destroys a few more hundreds of villages, homes, factories and hospitals, but hey, in the end everything will be fine.
The nazi germany was able to produce weapons until the minute the first allied or russian soldier knocked on the factory door and despite all of their economy went to trash, they surrendered only when they were defeated by military - not by economic problems. Even after two and a half years Ukraine suffers from lacking the necessary amount of weapons to win. It's a pity that they can't shoot with optimistic comments and supportive press releases, they were in Moscow now.
I think the Ukrainian people in the zones occupied y Russia are suffering much more than the people of free Ukraine. Please stop with the fake concern for the suffering of Ukrrainians.
Good to see that you don't have any concerns about any of them. Also that you know that my concerns are fake.
Russian troll.
Nein, ein ungarischer Troll. Er läuft seinem Helden Orban hinterher...
I cannot help to think that it could have been the perfect situation to see some A10 in action
They would be as hacked to pieces as the Russian Su-25s were, back on 6-7 August....
I'm starting to think one of the possible goals may be not so much to use any captured (and held) territories as a direct "bargain" in any negotiations to come, than to use them as a kind of "counter-Trump insurance". I.e. if he happens to win AND tries to make good on his promise to "end the war in 24 hours", then just freezing everything as-is would be just as unacceptable for Russia as it is for Ukraine - even if it's just Sudzha and a few villages around it, they'd still never agree to just leave them under Ukrainian control (and good luck forcing Ukraine to withdraw without Russia withdrawing elsewhere). And if it's something more - all the better.
I hope they are capturing fuel and ammo on the way, as resupply is going to be a massive problem. Thanks for the update Tom.
Yup. Have captured hundreds of vehicles already, plus one big ammo dump (and that perfectly intact). Indeed, the finding of the latter caused a probelm with removing POWs from the battlefield, because suddenly there were not enough trucks left...
I wonder why the Russians did not blast the ammo dump with a missile
There are multiple possible explanations.
- It was on Russian territory, so they hadn't written down its coordinates.
- Their books still contain the dump as their own and would require way too much paperwork to account for its destruction.
- The colonel in charge of blasting dumps in the region had been drunk, and by the time he sobered up enough to give an order, the attackers had removed the ammo already.
I have seen little evidence of this and it's a mystery what those vehicles were doing there. The Russian troops on the border did not need hundreds of vehicles. Placing extra hundreds of vehicles near the border will expose them to drone and artillery attacks.
Oh this is an interesting report I liked it thanks Tom
Excellent update Tom, thank you. Feels like this operation is still very much wait and see. So much happening in so short a time.
To quote Director Krennic from Star Wars Rogue One
"Oh, it's beautiful."
Thanks for the update
The low number of the units involved is really surprising.
Just as the fact that no apparent second wave or reinforcements or such.
IMO they could have put at least some effort into that to make it convincing enough...
No visible enemy = no target to bomb
Thank for report. I heard interesting theory, that possible purpose of operation is defense. Firstly, obviously such an offensive disrupted all invasion plans of VSRF, in particular by destruction of military assets and warehouses with ammunition/fuel in close rear. Secondly, the author of the theory also claimed that a terrain of Ukraine near border is quite open and flat, whereas captured part of Kursk has changing heights,a lot of dense forest and a few small rivers, making it much better to build long-term defense, if logistics will be improved. It, of course, doesn't exclude obvious bonus to destroy more Russian troops in their the most vulnerable position (transportation)
The teritory captured by Ukraine is low valleys with a few hills. The Russians still control the mass of the hills overlooking the valleys.
Lol, this bird doesn't look like a nightingale, or perhaps they have a secret.
Must be a very angry nightingale.
Interesting reading, thanks Tom!
The counterattack planned by the west, using NATO tactics, failed. Ukrainian planned operation, using Soviet tactics, succeeded more. Something for NATO tacticians to think about, or maybe their (in)competence raises them above such reflections.
Don't worry: Americans are going to quickly claim all the laurels for themselves...
Very true. One doctrine requires air superiority, the other doesn't, so maybe NATO planners now know what they should have known all along: that forcing an unsuitable doctrine on an ally unequipped for it is a bad idea. That said, Ukrainians achieved local drone superiority and cleared the way for the mech units. Maybe everyone's war-fighting doctrines need re-thinking?
The plans for the NATO planned attack last summer were on a desk in Russia before it even started
Nevertheless, planning an operation that requires a certain amount of material without providing the necessary amount of said material speaks for itself.
The countrrattack in 2023 was not planned by the west, e.g. NATO advisers were against diverting attack in Bakchmut and Kupiansk, they advised to concentrate in one direction only. And other different things ...
Ukraine did not implement NATO, or Soviet, tactics in 2023, and ignored most of the advice offered by the US, so that's not the right direction.
Ok, so on the first few paragraphs I have some anecdotal, primarily game/secondarily simulation based nonsense to spout. Forever it has been a common theme of mine to utilize Russian and Soviet tactics with western equipment, and western tactics with bloc/pact equipment. It leads to frankly ridiculous results sometimes. In an operation where everything should have been obliterated you end up with ridiculous 75:1 ratios against what should have been absolute death. (I always figured this was wargame nonsense but fuck me, maybe if you do have equipment of a certain tech level and function(thermals, working), it isn’t just an artifact of “what if”.)
Lovely report. Maneuver warfare at its purest form… and with a general versed in Soviet doctrine driving it with western equipment is icing on the cake. Reinforcing Russian infantry formations streaming in are in a rough time for a while.
So, Syrsky really was paying atento in their soviet courses.
Well, so this is a soviet style attack, but with grinding resourses "alla" Afrika Korps. Because now they UAF are the masters on integrate soviet and NATO equipment.
Thanks as always Tom. Looking forward to see what's going on.
Thank you, Tom! Very interesting read.
One sentence i did not get quite well
„at least unless Gerasimov manages to drag, kick and push enough of VSRF troops out of positions in northern Kharkiv, Kremina, Bakhmut and similar places and bring them to the *Kharkiv* area.
// do you mean the *Kursk* area?
On italian newspapers there is all kinds of heroic defenses like 500Kg UMPK falling on Ukrainian mercenaries aggregations or even thermobaric missiles obliterating hundreds of invaders. Of course the source is the MOD of russia. All according to plans.
I hope the paper of those newspapers is soft enough to be useful at least for something...