As mentioned several times in late August: they're constructing and/or repairing pontoon bridges far quicker than the Ukrainians can find and destroy them.
Moreover, since they've liberated the road from Korenevo to Glushkovo, pontoon bridges aren't as important. And even if: they were relevant only for the Russian hold of the Glushkovo District, not for all of their positions in this part of the Kursk Oblast.
Dear Yura! I was asking you many times, why you are not at front fighting orcs but instead spending time at forums asking senseless questions?)))))
Question is senseless since there's no statustics or numerous video facts. So, I will set forth my own imho. Generally attitude towards UA prisoners is acceptable (worsening from "good" back in 2022). Prisoners are valuable material for exchange, propaganda, and etc. Last but not the least: most of RU soldiers are Slavs, therefore Ukranians are still considered next of kin people. Still, I must admit, sadly, official RU propaganda doing its best to depict UA population as mortal enemies deserving little sympathy (the same thing UA propaganda has been doing since 2014). Still, most of prisoners doing good, even captured Azov nazis and cutthroats are safe and sound (though some got life sentence for murdering pro-Russian UA civilians). All I wrote above does not rule out individual cases of assasinating of UA prisoners. War is war, plus conscripts from the jails add to unnecessary cruelty. My bet is that certain UA troops indeed risk their lives when captured: SSOs, UAVs operators, mercenaries/volunteers from former Soviet republics. I remember your question about the body of UA soldier with a sword in his chest. I investigated the case. This strange guy brought this sword with himself to Kursk region and later was KIA. RU soldiers with a "black" sense of humour put the sword in his chest hinting at the Bible and famous Eisenstein movie words: " The one who came to us with the sword will die from the sword". Not a nice way to treat a corpse but at least he was dead.
All in, there's nothing good to be captured by RU troops, but in 99% cases you will survive that. RU TG channels full of videos of captured wounded UA soldiers treated and cured well.
What a nonsense, Slavic brothers, Azov captives are alive, although they killed more than 50 people in Yelenovka in 2022, but we have already forgotten about it. There are videos confirming the killings of captive Ukrainians more than 10 exactly. After captivity your humane Ukrainians look like they came back from a WW2 concentration camp.
Yes, you have such black humor - cutting off the heads of the living and the dead. And then you put them on a stick. Ha-ha, very funny.
Liberators, what can I say...
Winston Churchill's words immediately come to mind: “The fascists of the future will call themselves anti-fascists”.
1/ dead soldier with hands tied with tape? really? he was fighting with a sword, or they have found his personal sword with him? weak and boring, try something else.
2/ "most of RU soldiers are Slavs" - check better stats of your own sources
Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Dagestan etc - Slavic soldiers? Btw, it is pure eastern tradition - to kill or to torture prisoners - read carefully traditions of the Golden Horde/Золотая Орда
3/ "most of prisoners doing good, even captured Azov nazis and cutthroats are safe and sound" So safe and so well treated, that 90% come back with massive weight loss (15-35 kg), 100% with psycho traumas, more then 70% - with terrible impairment resulting from tortures, 95% report physical/psycho tortures. Contact to their relatives in UA is very limited and as good as switched off.
On the other hand Ru PoWs come back to mother russia with "pink cheecks", fresh and clean. regularly checked and visited by pro-russian RC/UNO and other useless international organizations.
2) You do not look illiterate, so it's not difficult to read about ethnic "picture" of Russian population. 80% of it are Russians.
3) Do not contrdict youself, my dear frontline evader. First you and your bot-brother say about assasinations, now you say that they return but with traumas, and etc.
As per RU prisoners in Ukraine, gimme a break. Many Russian prisoners were executed (especially back in 2022).
To be fair, part of the killings of RU POWs were done by foreign fighters. Also, I remember stories that some RU POWs were indeed treated well for the Slav origin. Still, hysterical hatred installed by ashkenazi mass media in both advesary countries, leads to bad treatment of POWs.
They cannot and will not reform from the inside. The only chance would be a foreign military mission, with people both in the Genstab and on the ground, which could decide and give orders on training, logistics, strategy and ops down to tactical level. Like the French military mission in Romania during WW1, led by gen Berthelot, which turned an utterly beaten army into a force capable of winning local victories against elite Central Powers units in 6 months.
this time (2024) there is no such thing like French military mission. Most of Western armies simply dont know anything about modern warfare, have zero experience with fighting equall enemy. So what they could teach Ukraine. In Ukraine, this "bardak" is a result of 30 years of constant brain drain and destruction of human capital.
The everlasting myth of NATO don't know how to fight wars. You base that on what exactly? You do realise that for NATO, in a conventional war, Russia is not a peer enemy? Also, the equipment doesn't fight, people do. The French/British/US (many others but these are the biggest) officer and NCO corps are light years ahead of anything UA and RU have ever had. The logistics is the best on the planet, supported by the industry that only needs a decision, money is not an issue, to drown russians in materiel.
Comparing the ZSU or VSRF to premier NATO armies, is like comparing a Lada to Rolls Royce. They shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph.
Here I cant agree, sorry. After 30 months of fighting UA and RU armies accolumated a really a lot lessons-learned. And I dare to say that Russia is better in their aplication than Ukraine. And most massive advantage for Russia is its wast reserve of "meat". The NATO armies (like mentioned France, UK, USA) are in such state that they are decaying in front of our eyes. Especially there is such shortage of personnel, that in case of war most of units wouldnt be able to go out of their barracks. I agree that I cant present exact article or report. But the same problem is on your side.
I'd love to agree but, as Tom keeps pointing out, not all lessons are being learned at mid-ranking to senior officer level. I'm pretty sure systemic reform of a modern army without the aid of outside 'observers' has only ever been successful in peacetime. Maybe you're talking about hard-earned experience gained on the frontline which is not what's being discussed here.
2. What experience? Both the ZSU and the VSRF are in every way worse than they were in 2022. An experienced 3rd league fotballer is still a 3rd league footballer.
3. What lessons learnt? How to storm trenches on motorbikes? How to not be able to command even a battalion? How to not be able to sustain logistically what is essentially a single division in Kursk?
4. The US is decaying? Compared to what, the ZSU, Ivan in a golf cart? France has the 2nd/3rd most powerful air force on the planet. Those armies have vast number of reserves, ready to be mobilised in the case of a major war. If you had any idea what you were talking about, you'd know that their military systems are geared towards generating vast reserves. You are just regurgitating bullshit. I'm not even going to comment on the officer and NCO corps. To even try to compare NATO and the ZSU/VSRF in that regard is incredible ignorance.
5. Wars are won in the air, the Nordic countries alone have vastly superior air forces to the VKS, especially once F35s come online.
6. Last but not least, wars are not won on the tactical level. They are won at the strategic level, at which both the ZSU and the VSRF are non-existent. At the operational level, the ZSU is barely existent, while the VSRF is fantastically bad. Also, industrial wars, are won by industrial production. Even today, NATO is outproducing Russia in every weapons category, on top of being incomparably more advanced, effective and efficient.
The French modernisation programmes are fine. The US has such vast financial and industrial power, that they can waste 80% of the money and they will still produce better and more than the ZSU and the VSRF combined. You have absolutely no sense of scale. A Rolls Royce with cheap tires is still a Rolls Royce, not a Lada.
Also, who do you think is doing the global logistics to sustain the ZSU for almost 3 years now? Has that somehow escaped your analysis or you think Amazon is shipping it? You have the Eastern mindset, you think that the West have bad armies because they openly debate and voice concerns, but 3rd world Eastern armies are great because they pretend there are no problems.
Also, if you want to compare militaries, then compare apples to apples. You're comparing 2 militaries fighting a total war, to peace time armies. You're completely ignoring their reserves in personnel and equipment, industrial capacity, financial power, size of populations etc. Finland alone can mobilise around 400k within a month, together with their reserves, they have more than 1M soldiers, that's about how many are involved in the war in Ukraine across the two sides combined. Most importantly, the UK and, to a large extent, France will not be fighting a land war in Belarus. Their air forces and navies will. That's the entire point of NATO, to spend as little as 2% of GDP each and still be able to destroy the entire VSRF in a month.
Please enlighten me, how does the VKS compare to the NATO AF? You can even ignore the US and pretend it's just the European NATO. How many sorties can the VKS generate, how many and how advanced AWACS and tankers do they have? How technologically advanced the VKS is compared to NATO? How will the VKS protect the entire Russian industry and munition/POL depots, when they can't protect them from crappy drones? Have you seen the range of JASSMs and similar? How many airframes does NATO and Russia produce? How modern those airframes, or specifically avionics, are?
You are right, absolutely nothing. The Ukrainians are already masters , world class really in appointing commanders based on merit instead of connections, debriefing, lessons learned, logistics and engineering, etc.
No, they are not. Ukraine has a lot of its own problems. If you speak about general staff work, how the HQ company is expected to work - then OK, French could came-in. The problem is that one need "material" that is able to learn. In UA the material itself is missing, so French have nobody to learn staff work.
The material is not missing, it is used in assaults.
"People in a hierarchy tend to rise to a level of respective incompetence". And the Ukrainian military hierarchy was established way before 2022, with fighter pilots leaving ZSU to work as software testers in outsourcing - because that promised much higher salaries.
Now that the hierarchy is already complete, it does not let more able men in.
thats the sad reality: elites both in Uraine as well as in Russian are canibalising their countries to stay in power. Probelm is - for us - that russian has much more meat to canibalise
The US and its allies fought Iraq two years after it ended an eight year war with Iran. Iraq had a large army with air defenses, armor and artillery. It wasn't even close to a fair fight. Iraq was overmatched.
The US army has 450,000 on active duty plus another 500,000 in the National Guard and Reserves. They have standardized national training standard for all individuals. Active duty units have a training cycle that starts with individual skills and works up to battalion and brigade skills, and the commanders are evaluated on their unit's warfighting skills. They have a strong NCO corps, many of whom could be officers.
As of 2022, the US air force has 5200 aircraft, just 600 behind the combined Russian and Chinese air forces. Then you add in the 2400 US naval aircraft and the 5600 army and Marine aircraft designed to support ground troops. You also need to factor in the quality of the equipment and the training of the personnel.
Since WW2, the US army has had a lot of manpower in their divisions because of the logistical support they provide. Global power projection is their specialty and no one comes even close to matching it.
Intelligence is largely a function of money and the US spent a lot of it on satellite, airborne and ground-based capabilities. They listen to phone calls around the world.
You see both Russian and Ukrainians using unencrypted radios. The US uses SINCGARS, a VHF combat network radio that is not only encrypted, it has the capability to frequency hop across 2320 channels to defeat EW jamming. It can provide data rates of up to 16k bits per second. 570,000 of these radios have been purchased. The US now considers these radios old technology and is working on upgrading them.
Imagine if every unit was equipped with Bradleys. The US has 3700 of them on active duty and 2800 in storage. The reason they don't send them to Ukraine is because all their support vehicles, the command, medical evacuation, mortar, etc. based on the M113 chassis will be converted to support vehicles with a Bradley chassis.
Consider those capabilities and add in the NATO air and naval assets. The Polish army is almost twice the size of the Belarus army. Do you think a British, French or German brigade will have any value? Russia stripped their units from the Finnish border. The Turkish military is the second biggest in NATO.
Six months ago, NATO held an exercise and determined it would take three days to achieve a local air superiority window lasting about an hour against Russian air defenses. What kind of damage do you think would be done in that hour with combined air and ground long-ranged assets? How long do you think the Russian front line would hold under a targeted NATO bombardment? Once a breach is created in the front lines, what will stop US/NATO from advancing and rolling up the adjacent units? What will happen to the Russian air defenses behind the front lines?
When Ukraine breached the Russian lines at Kharkiv and Kursk, it wasn't the Russians that stopped them. It was Ukraine's limited logistics and limited manpower. We've already established US logistical capabilities. Add in the NATO assets, as well.
Russia is not a peer to the US. It is a near-peer and the US qualitative edge in technology, training, command and control, and logistics, augmented by quality NATO allies. This will ensure that it would not be a static war of attrition. Instead, it will be a war of maneuver, and Russia has demonstrated it cannot function in a mobile combat environment.
I will agree that the combined NATO forces would not be fighting an equal army, they would be fighting an inferior army. I strongly disagree with your assertation that western armies know nothing about modern warfare. And for those rooting for Russia and clinging to the desparate hope that FPV drones will turn the tide in their favor haven't been paying attention to resiliance of the Bradleys, Leopards and CV-90s and assume that the Russian drone teams would survive long enough to have a lasting impact on the battlefield.
This is not a dismissal of the Ukrainian or Russian soldier. Given the same conditions they would have the same capabilities. But this is a function of money, technology and institutional practices that have been developed over decades. The Russians and Ukrainians have their own institutional practices developed since 1991. Institutional practices and technology are combat multipliers and the multipliers of Russia and Ukraine are much lower than those of NATO.
I have read the comments in the thread and have some thoughts on this discussion. I think a lot of disagreement is due to to different parts of organisations that is supposed ro learn and reform. Please note that Toms criticism has been directed mainly, I think almost exclusivly, at GenStab U and higher level officers. Not at mid-level or lower level officers and soldiers. (Though I think we can expect these levels to have its share of idiots as well.) The point I am making here is that it is simply possible for Ukrainian forces to learn and Even excell at tactical warfare while continue to «suck» at operational and strategic level. Painting with a broad bush here, but I think we need to do that at this level of discussion. So it is entirely possible that ZSU as well as the Russian forces can excel in parts of the figthing and be terrible at other. Currently I would definetly try to learn drone warfare from Ukraine, not the US. Probably also Russian forces would be better than US on this topic.
However, there is no excuse for not learning. Systematically and at all levels. And combined. The army/the commander and its soldier and officers may be the best in the world on something. If you stop learning then you will be surpassed. Water sleeps, you enemies dont. Please note that decline will happen fast and be painful. So, learning and adapting is what makes you continue to be on top of the situation.
Having said that there is no excuse there are lots and lots of explanations. We dont need to go into the list, but this seems pretty common if seen from and organisationsl theory point of view. I am afraid that the bardak cannot change alone. There is a need for some external force to force change. What external force that should be I dont know, French generals are probably not the right ingredient now. Maybe outside political pressure. Otherwise we are looking at an external shock to motivate. That will not be fun.
Thanks Tom for the update, the lessons learned for the ZSU are still not consistently applied to all and decision making, the 72nd Mech Bde can fight effectively based on its records.
Your description of the loss of Bde's wounded that cannot be evacuated, plus the small group withdrawal with attrition points to loss of the units combat power.
As you have already said many times, it seems incredible that almost 3 years in that the ZSU still has tthese issues. Its almost as if they were part of the USSR for 70 years or so! I guess socialism effectively cabbages everyones brain.
All true except socialism doesn't have anything to do with this. It wasn't any different in Russia when it was governed by Tsars. It's a cultural thing, transcending any political system. It also makes it near impossible to fix.
the brain drain in last 30 years (or lets say 70+ years) is devastating. I can say it the same about my little Slovakia (without war) when 1st and 2 tier managers are out, you must relly on 3rd and 4th tier which is resulting in such catastrophic performance.
"One thing neither Donald nor I understand about the ZSU here – nor in a few other sectors: why is there no counterattack into the Russian flank?"
I've been befuddled by this for at least a year now, and bitterly complaining about it as well. The ZSU have completely lost the ability to conduct any offensive maneuvers, except for a very small number of brigades. The only counter attacking actions that the ZSU have conducted in the past year, are with the elite brigades involved in the Kursk offensive and the National Guard brigades, primarily Azov. All other ZSU units have been rendered inoperable, from the offensive point of view.
That much is clear, but the reasons for it are not. I agree with those more knowledgeable than me. UA (gov & the ZSU) have made a catastrophic strategic error of constantly creating new units, for which they neither have the equipment, but more importantly officers & NCOs, while starving the existing combat units of replacements and materiel. As if that wasn't bad enough, the ZSU has doubled down on ripping out individual battalions from their brigades, so there is never a chance for brigade staff to learn how to fight as a brigade. The brigades don't even know what battalions they will be commanding next week. The National Guard are the exception, where the number of units has been mostly unchanged, but the existing units have been constantly replenished. I don't think I need to remind people who in the past loved creating hollow units.
It may be way simpler. Most units have lost up to 90% of their original staff, and the losses are replaced by forcibly mobilized men over 50 years old. They are not fit for assaults.
Yes, because everyone joining the ZSU is a 50 year old homeless drunk. No, it is completely normal to be replenishing units. Every military has tables of expected losses, these are well known. The combat brigades have not been properly replenished for months, because UA wanted more units on the map. War maths is pretty simple, in order to increase the number of units, you have to have a net increase in personnel, each month. Zaluzhny wanted 500k, Syrskyi claimed 200k was enough, Zelenskyi wanted 0. Ever since there has been a steady degeneration of the ZSU.
Most men over 50 are unable to run with 20 kg of equipment.
Google for the average age of Ukrainian recruits. It shows 43. Forcibly mobilized, meaning: caught in streets, packed into a bus and sent to the military training camp. And you can google for the quality of the training as well.
An average works both ways. It is the decision of the UA government to limit the age of conscription to 25. There is no public data on how many people volunteer and how many are forcibly conscripted. The most elite brigades, who recruit directly, get almost exclusively volunteers. That is however an extremely poor way of organising army sustainment. The quality of the training is on the ZSU, they have full control over it. Finally, don't create new units, if you do not have the personnel and the equipment for them. None of the 100s brigades need to exist.
Yes, precisely. They are elite because 1. They have the best staff at every level. 2. they keep getting enough replacements. 72nd was starved of replacements and they have been rendered inoperable. Vuhledar has fallen. Stop pumping recruits into brigades with shit staff, while starving the good ones.
The lack of swift flank counterattacks has frustrated me for a long time now. My assumption is that drones make it too difficult to achieve surprise, otherwise Ukrainian frontline units would try this more.
But the top level command structure is clearly in need of reform. Starting to really think it's best to have Syrskyi and a few capable subordinates manage a gaggle of 20 corps-sized units built around the competent brigade staffs that exist.
I wonder if others agree with this conclusion about the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. On the battlefields of this war, with lots of drones and artillary, the Bradley is as vulnerable to being damaged and disabled as any other IFV or APC. But the soldiers inside are far more likely to survive an unfavorable encounter with the enemy than any other vehicle on the battlefield. The instances where a Bradley is destroyed and the troops make it back to friendly lines is becoming the stuff of mythology.
Quite disappointed with the situation in Vuhledar and the lack of reinforcement for the lone battalion defending it for 2+ years. I guess that the game changer for Russians are the huge gliding bombs they hurl at the defenders, essentially levelling their positions.
Unless Ukraine manages to start shooting down these Sukhois, or hitting thejs bases, I don't see how they can push the Russian invaders beyond the 1991 borders.
And I am not happy reading about the promotion of the brigade leader instead of reinforcing the 72nd, or sending another brigade to open a corridor for retreat.
Thank you, Tom!
How are Russians able to supply their guys in Kursk? Their pontoon operations must be pretty successful?
As mentioned several times in late August: they're constructing and/or repairing pontoon bridges far quicker than the Ukrainians can find and destroy them.
Moreover, since they've liberated the road from Korenevo to Glushkovo, pontoon bridges aren't as important. And even if: they were relevant only for the Russian hold of the Glushkovo District, not for all of their positions in this part of the Kursk Oblast.
Disappointing, seems like you'd get a big win with little effort to eliminate that road and target those pontoons. Easier said than done of course
Mi-8 helicopters are secondary but still important for transportations
Tupolev16
This is the third time I've asked. Why are the Russian military shooting Ukrainian prisoners? Are you going to answer or not?
Dear Yura! I was asking you many times, why you are not at front fighting orcs but instead spending time at forums asking senseless questions?)))))
Question is senseless since there's no statustics or numerous video facts. So, I will set forth my own imho. Generally attitude towards UA prisoners is acceptable (worsening from "good" back in 2022). Prisoners are valuable material for exchange, propaganda, and etc. Last but not the least: most of RU soldiers are Slavs, therefore Ukranians are still considered next of kin people. Still, I must admit, sadly, official RU propaganda doing its best to depict UA population as mortal enemies deserving little sympathy (the same thing UA propaganda has been doing since 2014). Still, most of prisoners doing good, even captured Azov nazis and cutthroats are safe and sound (though some got life sentence for murdering pro-Russian UA civilians). All I wrote above does not rule out individual cases of assasinating of UA prisoners. War is war, plus conscripts from the jails add to unnecessary cruelty. My bet is that certain UA troops indeed risk their lives when captured: SSOs, UAVs operators, mercenaries/volunteers from former Soviet republics. I remember your question about the body of UA soldier with a sword in his chest. I investigated the case. This strange guy brought this sword with himself to Kursk region and later was KIA. RU soldiers with a "black" sense of humour put the sword in his chest hinting at the Bible and famous Eisenstein movie words: " The one who came to us with the sword will die from the sword". Not a nice way to treat a corpse but at least he was dead.
All in, there's nothing good to be captured by RU troops, but in 99% cases you will survive that. RU TG channels full of videos of captured wounded UA soldiers treated and cured well.
What a nonsense, Slavic brothers, Azov captives are alive, although they killed more than 50 people in Yelenovka in 2022, but we have already forgotten about it. There are videos confirming the killings of captive Ukrainians more than 10 exactly. After captivity your humane Ukrainians look like they came back from a WW2 concentration camp.
Yes, you have such black humor - cutting off the heads of the living and the dead. And then you put them on a stick. Ha-ha, very funny.
Liberators, what can I say...
Winston Churchill's words immediately come to mind: “The fascists of the future will call themselves anti-fascists”.
Yura, go to the front and take revenge! Stop spitting hatred, spit fire!) Ugledar is waiting.
So I have to love you Russians for everything you do. Suja is waiting... Or have they already forgotten about it, what do you think?
1/ dead soldier with hands tied with tape? really? he was fighting with a sword, or they have found his personal sword with him? weak and boring, try something else.
2/ "most of RU soldiers are Slavs" - check better stats of your own sources
https://zona.media/casualties
Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Dagestan etc - Slavic soldiers? Btw, it is pure eastern tradition - to kill or to torture prisoners - read carefully traditions of the Golden Horde/Золотая Орда
3/ "most of prisoners doing good, even captured Azov nazis and cutthroats are safe and sound" So safe and so well treated, that 90% come back with massive weight loss (15-35 kg), 100% with psycho traumas, more then 70% - with terrible impairment resulting from tortures, 95% report physical/psycho tortures. Contact to their relatives in UA is very limited and as good as switched off.
On the other hand Ru PoWs come back to mother russia with "pink cheecks", fresh and clean. regularly checked and visited by pro-russian RC/UNO and other useless international organizations.
I know it's useless to answer UA ЦИПСо bots, but will answer for the "neutrals":
1) Sword-man got his sword back after his death. There's even a video showing the "denazification" of the poor soul:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/138989
2) You do not look illiterate, so it's not difficult to read about ethnic "picture" of Russian population. 80% of it are Russians.
3) Do not contrdict youself, my dear frontline evader. First you and your bot-brother say about assasinations, now you say that they return but with traumas, and etc.
As per RU prisoners in Ukraine, gimme a break. Many Russian prisoners were executed (especially back in 2022).
One can find enough videos like that:
https://t.me/voenacher/14105
Even nytimes (which is hardly could be called pro-Russian) are giving articles like this one:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/world/europe/ukraine-russia-killings-us.html
To be fair, part of the killings of RU POWs were done by foreign fighters. Also, I remember stories that some RU POWs were indeed treated well for the Slav origin. Still, hysterical hatred installed by ashkenazi mass media in both advesary countries, leads to bad treatment of POWs.
A ponton is a metal box. You weld the holes and it floats again. You might have to switch a destroyed engine which is quite basic and easy to produce.
They cannot and will not reform from the inside. The only chance would be a foreign military mission, with people both in the Genstab and on the ground, which could decide and give orders on training, logistics, strategy and ops down to tactical level. Like the French military mission in Romania during WW1, led by gen Berthelot, which turned an utterly beaten army into a force capable of winning local victories against elite Central Powers units in 6 months.
this time (2024) there is no such thing like French military mission. Most of Western armies simply dont know anything about modern warfare, have zero experience with fighting equall enemy. So what they could teach Ukraine. In Ukraine, this "bardak" is a result of 30 years of constant brain drain and destruction of human capital.
The everlasting myth of NATO don't know how to fight wars. You base that on what exactly? You do realise that for NATO, in a conventional war, Russia is not a peer enemy? Also, the equipment doesn't fight, people do. The French/British/US (many others but these are the biggest) officer and NCO corps are light years ahead of anything UA and RU have ever had. The logistics is the best on the planet, supported by the industry that only needs a decision, money is not an issue, to drown russians in materiel.
Comparing the ZSU or VSRF to premier NATO armies, is like comparing a Lada to Rolls Royce. They shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph.
Here I cant agree, sorry. After 30 months of fighting UA and RU armies accolumated a really a lot lessons-learned. And I dare to say that Russia is better in their aplication than Ukraine. And most massive advantage for Russia is its wast reserve of "meat". The NATO armies (like mentioned France, UK, USA) are in such state that they are decaying in front of our eyes. Especially there is such shortage of personnel, that in case of war most of units wouldnt be able to go out of their barracks. I agree that I cant present exact article or report. But the same problem is on your side.
I'd love to agree but, as Tom keeps pointing out, not all lessons are being learned at mid-ranking to senior officer level. I'm pretty sure systemic reform of a modern army without the aid of outside 'observers' has only ever been successful in peacetime. Maybe you're talking about hard-earned experience gained on the frontline which is not what's being discussed here.
1. You are making an absurd claim, not me.
2. What experience? Both the ZSU and the VSRF are in every way worse than they were in 2022. An experienced 3rd league fotballer is still a 3rd league footballer.
3. What lessons learnt? How to storm trenches on motorbikes? How to not be able to command even a battalion? How to not be able to sustain logistically what is essentially a single division in Kursk?
4. The US is decaying? Compared to what, the ZSU, Ivan in a golf cart? France has the 2nd/3rd most powerful air force on the planet. Those armies have vast number of reserves, ready to be mobilised in the case of a major war. If you had any idea what you were talking about, you'd know that their military systems are geared towards generating vast reserves. You are just regurgitating bullshit. I'm not even going to comment on the officer and NCO corps. To even try to compare NATO and the ZSU/VSRF in that regard is incredible ignorance.
5. Wars are won in the air, the Nordic countries alone have vastly superior air forces to the VKS, especially once F35s come online.
6. Last but not least, wars are not won on the tactical level. They are won at the strategic level, at which both the ZSU and the VSRF are non-existent. At the operational level, the ZSU is barely existent, while the VSRF is fantastically bad. Also, industrial wars, are won by industrial production. Even today, NATO is outproducing Russia in every weapons category, on top of being incomparably more advanced, effective and efficient.
About western militarties and their ability in case of logistics: UK - https://www.forcesnews.com/services/army/defence-spending-cuts-could-be-made-tackle-ps22bn-black-hole-warns-john-healey or https://euro-sd.com/2024/08/major-news/39963/game-could-be-up-for-nmh/ recruitment collpasing, every major procurement program is in delay or collapasing because managerial incompetence. Not to talk about rissing budget just for mandatorry expenses, that hthere is nearly no money for training. Germany: https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1752584952401846425 or USA - https://x.com/AlexLuck9/status/1821432011481104489
The French modernisation programmes are fine. The US has such vast financial and industrial power, that they can waste 80% of the money and they will still produce better and more than the ZSU and the VSRF combined. You have absolutely no sense of scale. A Rolls Royce with cheap tires is still a Rolls Royce, not a Lada.
Also, who do you think is doing the global logistics to sustain the ZSU for almost 3 years now? Has that somehow escaped your analysis or you think Amazon is shipping it? You have the Eastern mindset, you think that the West have bad armies because they openly debate and voice concerns, but 3rd world Eastern armies are great because they pretend there are no problems.
Also, if you want to compare militaries, then compare apples to apples. You're comparing 2 militaries fighting a total war, to peace time armies. You're completely ignoring their reserves in personnel and equipment, industrial capacity, financial power, size of populations etc. Finland alone can mobilise around 400k within a month, together with their reserves, they have more than 1M soldiers, that's about how many are involved in the war in Ukraine across the two sides combined. Most importantly, the UK and, to a large extent, France will not be fighting a land war in Belarus. Their air forces and navies will. That's the entire point of NATO, to spend as little as 2% of GDP each and still be able to destroy the entire VSRF in a month.
Please enlighten me, how does the VKS compare to the NATO AF? You can even ignore the US and pretend it's just the European NATO. How many sorties can the VKS generate, how many and how advanced AWACS and tankers do they have? How technologically advanced the VKS is compared to NATO? How will the VKS protect the entire Russian industry and munition/POL depots, when they can't protect them from crappy drones? Have you seen the range of JASSMs and similar? How many airframes does NATO and Russia produce? How modern those airframes, or specifically avionics, are?
@Milos "So what they could teach Ukraine"
You are right, absolutely nothing. The Ukrainians are already masters , world class really in appointing commanders based on merit instead of connections, debriefing, lessons learned, logistics and engineering, etc.
No, they are not. Ukraine has a lot of its own problems. If you speak about general staff work, how the HQ company is expected to work - then OK, French could came-in. The problem is that one need "material" that is able to learn. In UA the material itself is missing, so French have nobody to learn staff work.
The material is not missing, it is used in assaults.
"People in a hierarchy tend to rise to a level of respective incompetence". And the Ukrainian military hierarchy was established way before 2022, with fighter pilots leaving ZSU to work as software testers in outsourcing - because that promised much higher salaries.
Now that the hierarchy is already complete, it does not let more able men in.
thats the sad reality: elites both in Uraine as well as in Russian are canibalising their countries to stay in power. Probelm is - for us - that russian has much more meat to canibalise
The US and its allies fought Iraq two years after it ended an eight year war with Iran. Iraq had a large army with air defenses, armor and artillery. It wasn't even close to a fair fight. Iraq was overmatched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4b7yl99wlo
The US army has 450,000 on active duty plus another 500,000 in the National Guard and Reserves. They have standardized national training standard for all individuals. Active duty units have a training cycle that starts with individual skills and works up to battalion and brigade skills, and the commanders are evaluated on their unit's warfighting skills. They have a strong NCO corps, many of whom could be officers.
As of 2022, the US air force has 5200 aircraft, just 600 behind the combined Russian and Chinese air forces. Then you add in the 2400 US naval aircraft and the 5600 army and Marine aircraft designed to support ground troops. You also need to factor in the quality of the equipment and the training of the personnel.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/largest-air-forces-in-the-world
Since WW2, the US army has had a lot of manpower in their divisions because of the logistical support they provide. Global power projection is their specialty and no one comes even close to matching it.
Intelligence is largely a function of money and the US spent a lot of it on satellite, airborne and ground-based capabilities. They listen to phone calls around the world.
You see both Russian and Ukrainians using unencrypted radios. The US uses SINCGARS, a VHF combat network radio that is not only encrypted, it has the capability to frequency hop across 2320 channels to defeat EW jamming. It can provide data rates of up to 16k bits per second. 570,000 of these radios have been purchased. The US now considers these radios old technology and is working on upgrading them.
Imagine if every unit was equipped with Bradleys. The US has 3700 of them on active duty and 2800 in storage. The reason they don't send them to Ukraine is because all their support vehicles, the command, medical evacuation, mortar, etc. based on the M113 chassis will be converted to support vehicles with a Bradley chassis.
Consider those capabilities and add in the NATO air and naval assets. The Polish army is almost twice the size of the Belarus army. Do you think a British, French or German brigade will have any value? Russia stripped their units from the Finnish border. The Turkish military is the second biggest in NATO.
Six months ago, NATO held an exercise and determined it would take three days to achieve a local air superiority window lasting about an hour against Russian air defenses. What kind of damage do you think would be done in that hour with combined air and ground long-ranged assets? How long do you think the Russian front line would hold under a targeted NATO bombardment? Once a breach is created in the front lines, what will stop US/NATO from advancing and rolling up the adjacent units? What will happen to the Russian air defenses behind the front lines?
When Ukraine breached the Russian lines at Kharkiv and Kursk, it wasn't the Russians that stopped them. It was Ukraine's limited logistics and limited manpower. We've already established US logistical capabilities. Add in the NATO assets, as well.
Russia is not a peer to the US. It is a near-peer and the US qualitative edge in technology, training, command and control, and logistics, augmented by quality NATO allies. This will ensure that it would not be a static war of attrition. Instead, it will be a war of maneuver, and Russia has demonstrated it cannot function in a mobile combat environment.
I will agree that the combined NATO forces would not be fighting an equal army, they would be fighting an inferior army. I strongly disagree with your assertation that western armies know nothing about modern warfare. And for those rooting for Russia and clinging to the desparate hope that FPV drones will turn the tide in their favor haven't been paying attention to resiliance of the Bradleys, Leopards and CV-90s and assume that the Russian drone teams would survive long enough to have a lasting impact on the battlefield.
This is not a dismissal of the Ukrainian or Russian soldier. Given the same conditions they would have the same capabilities. But this is a function of money, technology and institutional practices that have been developed over decades. The Russians and Ukrainians have their own institutional practices developed since 1991. Institutional practices and technology are combat multipliers and the multipliers of Russia and Ukraine are much lower than those of NATO.
It would not be an even fight.
I have read the comments in the thread and have some thoughts on this discussion. I think a lot of disagreement is due to to different parts of organisations that is supposed ro learn and reform. Please note that Toms criticism has been directed mainly, I think almost exclusivly, at GenStab U and higher level officers. Not at mid-level or lower level officers and soldiers. (Though I think we can expect these levels to have its share of idiots as well.) The point I am making here is that it is simply possible for Ukrainian forces to learn and Even excell at tactical warfare while continue to «suck» at operational and strategic level. Painting with a broad bush here, but I think we need to do that at this level of discussion. So it is entirely possible that ZSU as well as the Russian forces can excel in parts of the figthing and be terrible at other. Currently I would definetly try to learn drone warfare from Ukraine, not the US. Probably also Russian forces would be better than US on this topic.
However, there is no excuse for not learning. Systematically and at all levels. And combined. The army/the commander and its soldier and officers may be the best in the world on something. If you stop learning then you will be surpassed. Water sleeps, you enemies dont. Please note that decline will happen fast and be painful. So, learning and adapting is what makes you continue to be on top of the situation.
Having said that there is no excuse there are lots and lots of explanations. We dont need to go into the list, but this seems pretty common if seen from and organisationsl theory point of view. I am afraid that the bardak cannot change alone. There is a need for some external force to force change. What external force that should be I dont know, French generals are probably not the right ingredient now. Maybe outside political pressure. Otherwise we are looking at an external shock to motivate. That will not be fun.
Thanks Tom for the update, the lessons learned for the ZSU are still not consistently applied to all and decision making, the 72nd Mech Bde can fight effectively based on its records.
Your description of the loss of Bde's wounded that cannot be evacuated, plus the small group withdrawal with attrition points to loss of the units combat power.
As you have already said many times, it seems incredible that almost 3 years in that the ZSU still has tthese issues. Its almost as if they were part of the USSR for 70 years or so! I guess socialism effectively cabbages everyones brain.
All true except socialism doesn't have anything to do with this. It wasn't any different in Russia when it was governed by Tsars. It's a cultural thing, transcending any political system. It also makes it near impossible to fix.
the brain drain in last 30 years (or lets say 70+ years) is devastating. I can say it the same about my little Slovakia (without war) when 1st and 2 tier managers are out, you must relly on 3rd and 4th tier which is resulting in such catastrophic performance.
Thanks Tom.
"One thing neither Donald nor I understand about the ZSU here – nor in a few other sectors: why is there no counterattack into the Russian flank?"
I've been befuddled by this for at least a year now, and bitterly complaining about it as well. The ZSU have completely lost the ability to conduct any offensive maneuvers, except for a very small number of brigades. The only counter attacking actions that the ZSU have conducted in the past year, are with the elite brigades involved in the Kursk offensive and the National Guard brigades, primarily Azov. All other ZSU units have been rendered inoperable, from the offensive point of view.
That much is clear, but the reasons for it are not. I agree with those more knowledgeable than me. UA (gov & the ZSU) have made a catastrophic strategic error of constantly creating new units, for which they neither have the equipment, but more importantly officers & NCOs, while starving the existing combat units of replacements and materiel. As if that wasn't bad enough, the ZSU has doubled down on ripping out individual battalions from their brigades, so there is never a chance for brigade staff to learn how to fight as a brigade. The brigades don't even know what battalions they will be commanding next week. The National Guard are the exception, where the number of units has been mostly unchanged, but the existing units have been constantly replenished. I don't think I need to remind people who in the past loved creating hollow units.
It may be way simpler. Most units have lost up to 90% of their original staff, and the losses are replaced by forcibly mobilized men over 50 years old. They are not fit for assaults.
Yes, because everyone joining the ZSU is a 50 year old homeless drunk. No, it is completely normal to be replenishing units. Every military has tables of expected losses, these are well known. The combat brigades have not been properly replenished for months, because UA wanted more units on the map. War maths is pretty simple, in order to increase the number of units, you have to have a net increase in personnel, each month. Zaluzhny wanted 500k, Syrskyi claimed 200k was enough, Zelenskyi wanted 0. Ever since there has been a steady degeneration of the ZSU.
Most men over 50 are unable to run with 20 kg of equipment.
Google for the average age of Ukrainian recruits. It shows 43. Forcibly mobilized, meaning: caught in streets, packed into a bus and sent to the military training camp. And you can google for the quality of the training as well.
An average works both ways. It is the decision of the UA government to limit the age of conscription to 25. There is no public data on how many people volunteer and how many are forcibly conscripted. The most elite brigades, who recruit directly, get almost exclusively volunteers. That is however an extremely poor way of organising army sustainment. The quality of the training is on the ZSU, they have full control over it. Finally, don't create new units, if you do not have the personnel and the equipment for them. None of the 100s brigades need to exist.
Yep, and those "elite brigades" are the only ones able to assault, right?
Yes, precisely. They are elite because 1. They have the best staff at every level. 2. they keep getting enough replacements. 72nd was starved of replacements and they have been rendered inoperable. Vuhledar has fallen. Stop pumping recruits into brigades with shit staff, while starving the good ones.
How many ‘complete’ missile systems does that inventory add up to ?
That's presently unknown.
Thanks Tom kind of a down report for the eastern front
The lack of swift flank counterattacks has frustrated me for a long time now. My assumption is that drones make it too difficult to achieve surprise, otherwise Ukrainian frontline units would try this more.
But the top level command structure is clearly in need of reform. Starting to really think it's best to have Syrskyi and a few capable subordinates manage a gaggle of 20 corps-sized units built around the competent brigade staffs that exist.
Thanks for the update Tom. Intersting, but unsurprising issue with lack of learning. Humans dont want to. Better the devil you know etc.
I wonder if others agree with this conclusion about the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. On the battlefields of this war, with lots of drones and artillary, the Bradley is as vulnerable to being damaged and disabled as any other IFV or APC. But the soldiers inside are far more likely to survive an unfavorable encounter with the enemy than any other vehicle on the battlefield. The instances where a Bradley is destroyed and the troops make it back to friendly lines is becoming the stuff of mythology.
Quite disappointed with the situation in Vuhledar and the lack of reinforcement for the lone battalion defending it for 2+ years. I guess that the game changer for Russians are the huge gliding bombs they hurl at the defenders, essentially levelling their positions.
Unless Ukraine manages to start shooting down these Sukhois, or hitting thejs bases, I don't see how they can push the Russian invaders beyond the 1991 borders.
And I am not happy reading about the promotion of the brigade leader instead of reinforcing the 72nd, or sending another brigade to open a corridor for retreat.