Hello everybody! For ‘the end of the day’, and since the German media is meanwhile in overdrive between declaring the war in Ukraine for secondary in importance in comparison to Israel, and almost complaining the Leopard-2-equipped 47th Mech has been re-deployed to the Avdiivka area, a relatively short update on the situation in the Avdiivka area (and yes, it took the ‘top’ of German Experten only about a week to realise the 47th Mech is not in southern Zaporizhzhya any more….)
Because it is a fact. And while the «meat» attack are cheap they are not costless for the Russians either. The troops must be mobilised, put together in units, distributed to the battlefield, ordered to attack... there is logistics and resources involved also for the Russians. There are costs. This is probably in a extremly uncomfortable use of the term a cost-effective strategy for Russia, but not cost less. And If Ukraina continues to kill a high number per square meter gained the costs will increase. If nothing else because as information of the losses propagates the Russian society the costs will increase. The prospective mobiks will try avoid their fate by all measures, and getting them to the battleline will cost. Please note that these costs and vist increases are not necessarily enough to stop Russia, but they are real enough that they can be incorporated in an analysis.
It looks like West uses any oportunity to do not support Ukraine.
And they support only when Ukraine is winning.
World is very hard for Ukraine. Fighting against meat assaults, outgunned all the time, fighting against West public opinion who always want to cut support.
Yeah right, them nasty Westerners only provide free cruise-missiles, F-16s, JDAM-ERs and ATACMS.
Rotten, nasty westerner bstrds!
Said westerners might grow a bit tired of this poke-them-in-the-eye, as a Ukrainian version of "thank you", but some Ukrainians still can't figure out why being a fking ingrate is having counterproductive effects ... slow learners.
I predict this won’t go even half as well for the Russians as Bahkmut did. The main thing for Ukraine is to preserve personnel. The focus should not be on maintaining the ground. The equipment can be replaced and more will follow. The people take time to train and experience.
Which they did. Check my last 4-5 updates: they've deployed over 500,000 mines in this area - since the start of this year (and in addition to a similar number deployed earlier).
If the Russians take Berdich, then the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will withdraw the Avdeevka garrison. At least I hope they don't miss the moment since my friends are there now. It is truly unclear how insensitive the Russian army is to losses.
Not sure when, if at all, western guilt of WW2, will ever go away and everyone and their dog try to crawl out of their skin to support Israel.
Israel is going to be fine if Iran does not get involved, that's why US has it's carriers there.
Focus should still be Ukraine, because if Ukraine falls, NATO will fall (Russias next targets, that US is not willing to fight for with new presidency, etc) and all hell will break loose.
To some extent this is a fair statement. If Ukraine falls, then many will have fair doubts: will such a clumsy and cowardly structure as NATO be able to protect its members or will it just as meekly fold its paws in front of a “terrible and strong” enemy?
You know nothing about what you are talking about. Last year was the time for talking PR bollocks. Todays Russia is a pathetic and weak enemy, it poses 0 conventional threat to NATO.
Essentially, a report by the German ZDF TV-channel, provided by a reporter 'in Avdiivka area', began with the anchorman asking the reporting what do the 'Ukrainians' think about the situation in Israel....
....and the reporter replied (essentially), Ukrainians understand that Israel is priority...
Nov 1, 2023·edited Nov 1, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Hi Tom,
as usual many thanks for the update!
This time, I also have a question.
If I remember correctly, you mentioned in one of your posts associated with the Ukraine offensive around Robotern, that this war is for Ukraine (mainly and in this phase) about “shooting away as many Russians as possible” (hopefully I phrased it broadly in a correct fashion).
Does this mean, that this Russian offensive is advantageous for Ukraine, assuming they receive sufficient artillery, are able to preserve their own troops and trade “a few square miles for 10s of thousands of Russias troops”?
You mean a war of attrition - either Russians are so stupid they have wasted their reserves, so they have a thin defense elsewhere and Ukraine may exploit it. Or, Russia have enough man to waste - and that's scary.
At least they are definitely not able to replace the wasted amour so easy.
Human wave assaults are relatively cheap for Russians. As of now, by Ukrainian numbers, they lost about 0.25% of population. In WW2, they lost between 15 and 25% of population (depending on source), of which about 8 million, i.e. 5% of population were military. So, at current pace, they can keep going for 50 years more before the military loses meet that level, or 200 more years before the overall population loses are the same.
The losses in personnel are thus important only in the sense whether they can be covered by the current inflow of new recruits. If not, the line is manned by fewer, opening opportunity for counterattack. Still, it is questionable whether Russia would not increase the rate of mobilisation at the cost of quality of troops. Even troops that never touched a gun in training and after barefoot still cost ammo and effort to kill.
Absolutely, my point is mostly: in comparison to armor, humans are cheap for Russia. Even if their rate of KIA doubles every year, they still have enough for some time. With armor, the budget seems much tighter and until their industry production picks up the pace (if it does), they use the more readily available resource.
Ukrainians are kind of forced to do similar in the south: they know they are not getting another 150 more or less modern Western tanks this year, so they need to conserve them even if it means higher losses in personnel. And the West is OK with that, because for their voters, Ukrainian lives are cheaper than even old tanks.
We don't have to forget what Putin asked in order not to begin the war in Ukraine: NATO going back at its 1995 borders. I think he still wants that, and only Ukraine is in the position to stop this aim. In this respect, what the US will do to help Ukraine is important for the whole Europe, because Europe helps but it's not enough. On the other hand it's unclear to me the position of some NATO countries like Hungary and now Slovakia. Maybe they want out, as Putin wanted.
ad Hungaria and Slovakia - it's more complicated what they "want", one should dive into their history and current politics. Very briefly: their leaders stir hate to gain power and it works. Similarly as e.g. Trump does. So similar problems are in other countries, too.
for now, Russia avoids a second mobilization wave like the plague, because they would have to dip into the population of Moscow and St. Petersburg and other big cities - and that would mean a big drop of the support for the Russian regime.
Until the March elections in Russia come and go, I am pretty sure that the state will avoid a big second round of mobilization as much as possible.
Just one issue. The following sentence makes no sense to me:
"Sure, the incompetence of Russian commanders at tactical levels is meanwhile reaching such low levels that all the units are ‘steered per remote control’ by generals from headquarters well away from the frontline –"
In case of incompetence is reaching low levels, it would actually mean they gain competence. From the context of the article the opposite is the case.
Nope. The point is that the Russian lieutenants, captains, majors, colonels - i.e. officers commanding units on the battlefield - are meanwhile entirely useless. They're solely serving the purpose of following and realising orders issued by the Keystone Cops in Moscow.
Putin is micro-managing this war right from the start. Especially all of these 'mindless assaults, regardless the cost' - are all run on his direct orders.
As Ukrainian I think that it very cynical but I hope Israel finish it faster instead wasting Jdams and money to bomb Palestinians. Do you know something about losses of Ukraine on the left bank of Dnipro, because I've seen some posts about it in Ukrainian social media that "or we take left bank or marines ends earlier"? And you talked that for cover of possible pontoon bridge ZSU could deploy some long range SAM like Patriot, but why didn't they do it during summer controffensive in order to prevent permanent Russian bombarding.Thanks for repirt
Nov 1, 2023·edited Nov 1, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Patriot batteries cannot cover the whole of Ukraine. You either cover Kiyv and other big cities and infrastructure, or you cover troops (at greater risk to the Patriot batteries). You cannot do both. Similar problem with the Hawk batteries - with 6 systems, you can cover only so much.
Maybe the rumoured upgrade of Buk batteries with AMRAAM missiles will be a big help for medium range coverage from air attacks
You guys also need western airborne platforms in order to take out those Russian jets. Simply relying on Patriot SAMs is not going to be enough. I hope you can get F16s as soon as possible with the right electronics systems and missiles. Otherwise our government here is too slow in increasing the production of Patriot batteries and other such systems.
We are talking about months perspective, because first f 16 will not be earlier a spring of 2024. Moreover F-16 MLU will not be able to fight su 35 in open battle, if radar isn't replaced by new one. Only Gripens D with meteors missles will be able to do it. Now Ukraine has 2 batteries and it is a resource that they have for operations now.
Yes very terrible planning from our leaders here. This should have been started last year when everyone was saying so. You'll eventually get the nicer F16s as well. Slava Ukraini
Gen. Zaluzhny acknowledges what has been understood since at least mid-summer, that the summer campaign has not been able to shift the stalemate. In his opinion as published in a white paper and recounted to The Economist, as gleaned from a skim, only AI drone swarms and advanced EW can overcome an opponent of the size and nature of the VSRF. That would seem a forlorn goal to pin one's ambitions on...
Especially the bit about manpower. Obviously, losses are painful. Every single one. But I thought UKR had some margin.
Other main axis are as every bit as depressing. About Zelensky going full retarded re Palestine. His administration beginning to realize the sort Western lend lease Ukraine needs to win decisively will never materialize. The corruption thing.
Now I dont know what credibility the journalist has but given the echos we had lately and speech like Arestovych's, I find it hard to just brush aside it.
This is going to be a difficult winter. And unlike the previous one, there wont even be the hope for a decisive summer offensive to cling into.
On a completely unrelated subject, there are two long interviews of French fighters in Ukraine. They talk about the situation, their units, their mission, previous battles (including Bakhmut), equipment, etc. For those interested. If auto-translator is not enough, I may do a quick summary in English.
That specific jorno from Time (Simon Shuster) is a russian that emigrated to US and most of his career has been focused on Russia, including living in Russia for a number of years. His impartiality is questionable at best..
Tiz really something that a fascist supporter of Puke, that has been treating the general Palestinian population like shit for years and killing class act journalists like Shireen Abu Akleh, is not getting condemnation for role in this mess. Reminds me of how we supported that sociopathic mass murderer Pinochet and looked the other way when he tortured and killed so, so many truely decent human beings like Allende. Yea
Soviet achievements? Gulags, repressions, killing millions of Ukrainians in artificial famine.
Go home Ivan, there's no vodka here.
So, Ukraine might run out of ammo.
Another problem, russians might completelly compensate their artillery with drones and just lost 50-100 k but take Avdiivka.
it's well known that Russians don't care at all about human losses, if they keep/gain ground.
Why do we keep talking about their loses, just to keep our morale higher?
Because that's the only resource Russians have in a plentiful manner.
Destroying equipment is also helpful, but if Ukraine exhausts artillery and gun rounds, even a Soviet era T-34 can become the king of the battlefield
Because it is a fact. And while the «meat» attack are cheap they are not costless for the Russians either. The troops must be mobilised, put together in units, distributed to the battlefield, ordered to attack... there is logistics and resources involved also for the Russians. There are costs. This is probably in a extremly uncomfortable use of the term a cost-effective strategy for Russia, but not cost less. And If Ukraina continues to kill a high number per square meter gained the costs will increase. If nothing else because as information of the losses propagates the Russian society the costs will increase. The prospective mobiks will try avoid their fate by all measures, and getting them to the battleline will cost. Please note that these costs and vist increases are not necessarily enough to stop Russia, but they are real enough that they can be incorporated in an analysis.
....yes, because NATO is 'at least likely' to 'forget delivering enough' - since 'too busy with supporting Israeli mass-murder of Palestinians'.
It looks like West uses any oportunity to do not support Ukraine.
And they support only when Ukraine is winning.
World is very hard for Ukraine. Fighting against meat assaults, outgunned all the time, fighting against West public opinion who always want to cut support.
Russia look at meat assault as a good investment.
They spend 100k to take Avdiivka.
Western support is so weak tgat they require Ukraine to always winning or they cut support.
They see russians took Avdiivka, they cut support.
Russia is winning with only 100k lost which is nothing for them
Yeah right, them nasty Westerners only provide free cruise-missiles, F-16s, JDAM-ERs and ATACMS.
Rotten, nasty westerner bstrds!
Said westerners might grow a bit tired of this poke-them-in-the-eye, as a Ukrainian version of "thank you", but some Ukrainians still can't figure out why being a fking ingrate is having counterproductive effects ... slow learners.
Seems like Ukraine should be continuously and heavily mining the approaches to Stepnove
But they dont do that. Maybe they dont have mines
I think they have enough mines. But mines limit their own movements, too.
They have mines.
I predict this won’t go even half as well for the Russians as Bahkmut did. The main thing for Ukraine is to preserve personnel. The focus should not be on maintaining the ground. The equipment can be replaced and more will follow. The people take time to train and experience.
Maybe you do not know what you are talking about.
Which they did. Check my last 4-5 updates: they've deployed over 500,000 mines in this area - since the start of this year (and in addition to a similar number deployed earlier).
ZSU tries to flank Russians at Krasnohorivka (near Avdiivka) https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1719690625421869465
Так это ваши ваньки, что ты тут выкладываешь, кубань арта.
Sorry, do not understand you and Google translate neither. I am not Kuban Arta.
He ment that its russian source so cannot be taken seriously
If the Russians take Berdich, then the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will withdraw the Avdeevka garrison. At least I hope they don't miss the moment since my friends are there now. It is truly unclear how insensitive the Russian army is to losses.
They probably has very few troops in Avdiivka, because attacks are on flanks, so probably troops are there
My girlfriend's ex-boss was in Bahmut. But in fact, 10 km from Bahmut. Because attacks are usually on a flanks, so 90% troops are also holding flanks.
Not sure when, if at all, western guilt of WW2, will ever go away and everyone and their dog try to crawl out of their skin to support Israel.
Israel is going to be fine if Iran does not get involved, that's why US has it's carriers there.
Focus should still be Ukraine, because if Ukraine falls, NATO will fall (Russias next targets, that US is not willing to fight for with new presidency, etc) and all hell will break loose.
Why West is not guilt for Ukraine, Ukraine is also Soviet Union. So they should be equaly guilty
Because the West is associating WWII/Soviet Union with Russia, not with Ukraine.
....just like Israel is associated with Holocaust, not with Zionist colonisation of Palestine.
You dont have to be a rocket scientist ( :-P ) to understand that Iran is already involved in Gaza... for decades.
" ... because if Ukraine falls, NATO will fall ... "
How can anyone take such a BS remark seriously.
To some extent this is a fair statement. If Ukraine falls, then many will have fair doubts: will such a clumsy and cowardly structure as NATO be able to protect its members or will it just as meekly fold its paws in front of a “terrible and strong” enemy?
You know nothing about what you are talking about. Last year was the time for talking PR bollocks. Todays Russia is a pathetic and weak enemy, it poses 0 conventional threat to NATO.
Hi Tom, I am Ukrainian and a bit confused about the German media bit. Can you expand on what the fuck they are blabbering about?
Essentially, a report by the German ZDF TV-channel, provided by a reporter 'in Avdiivka area', began with the anchorman asking the reporting what do the 'Ukrainians' think about the situation in Israel....
....and the reporter replied (essentially), Ukrainians understand that Israel is priority...
....and they were both very happy...
Hi Tom,
as usual many thanks for the update!
This time, I also have a question.
If I remember correctly, you mentioned in one of your posts associated with the Ukraine offensive around Robotern, that this war is for Ukraine (mainly and in this phase) about “shooting away as many Russians as possible” (hopefully I phrased it broadly in a correct fashion).
Does this mean, that this Russian offensive is advantageous for Ukraine, assuming they receive sufficient artillery, are able to preserve their own troops and trade “a few square miles for 10s of thousands of Russias troops”?
Have a nice evening and many thanks in advance!
You mean a war of attrition - either Russians are so stupid they have wasted their reserves, so they have a thin defense elsewhere and Ukraine may exploit it. Or, Russia have enough man to waste - and that's scary.
At least they are definitely not able to replace the wasted amour so easy.
Human wave assaults are relatively cheap for Russians. As of now, by Ukrainian numbers, they lost about 0.25% of population. In WW2, they lost between 15 and 25% of population (depending on source), of which about 8 million, i.e. 5% of population were military. So, at current pace, they can keep going for 50 years more before the military loses meet that level, or 200 more years before the overall population loses are the same.
The losses in personnel are thus important only in the sense whether they can be covered by the current inflow of new recruits. If not, the line is manned by fewer, opening opportunity for counterattack. Still, it is questionable whether Russia would not increase the rate of mobilisation at the cost of quality of troops. Even troops that never touched a gun in training and after barefoot still cost ammo and effort to kill.
They can run out of skilled infantry and use more and more troops. As you can see their loses per day are on the level of first days of invasion.
Imagine, in 1 year they will be 2-3k per day, in another 1 year - 4-5 k a day
Absolutely, my point is mostly: in comparison to armor, humans are cheap for Russia. Even if their rate of KIA doubles every year, they still have enough for some time. With armor, the budget seems much tighter and until their industry production picks up the pace (if it does), they use the more readily available resource.
Ukrainians are kind of forced to do similar in the south: they know they are not getting another 150 more or less modern Western tanks this year, so they need to conserve them even if it means higher losses in personnel. And the West is OK with that, because for their voters, Ukrainian lives are cheaper than even old tanks.
We don't have to forget what Putin asked in order not to begin the war in Ukraine: NATO going back at its 1995 borders. I think he still wants that, and only Ukraine is in the position to stop this aim. In this respect, what the US will do to help Ukraine is important for the whole Europe, because Europe helps but it's not enough. On the other hand it's unclear to me the position of some NATO countries like Hungary and now Slovakia. Maybe they want out, as Putin wanted.
ad Hungaria and Slovakia - it's more complicated what they "want", one should dive into their history and current politics. Very briefly: their leaders stir hate to gain power and it works. Similarly as e.g. Trump does. So similar problems are in other countries, too.
for now, Russia avoids a second mobilization wave like the plague, because they would have to dip into the population of Moscow and St. Petersburg and other big cities - and that would mean a big drop of the support for the Russian regime.
Until the March elections in Russia come and go, I am pretty sure that the state will avoid a big second round of mobilization as much as possible.
Many thanks, Tom, again!
It seems that the battle for Avdiivka was to be raging for next time more hardly than the past days.
Hope our (in)valid leaders in Westernland change his mind about ammo and the “Israel priority”.
No one fights a 50 year modern war.
The hip-pocket nerve is what will make them squeal in pain.
Yes, no doubt, it is.
Problem is that Ukraine is losing terrain, and lost terrain means that the ZSU will have to suffer losses to recover that terrain.
Thank you for you update Tom.
Just one issue. The following sentence makes no sense to me:
"Sure, the incompetence of Russian commanders at tactical levels is meanwhile reaching such low levels that all the units are ‘steered per remote control’ by generals from headquarters well away from the frontline –"
In case of incompetence is reaching low levels, it would actually mean they gain competence. From the context of the article the opposite is the case.
Nope. The point is that the Russian lieutenants, captains, majors, colonels - i.e. officers commanding units on the battlefield - are meanwhile entirely useless. They're solely serving the purpose of following and realising orders issued by the Keystone Cops in Moscow.
So basically likewise to the times Hitler took over Heeresgruppe A in the caucasus in 1942?
Putin is micro-managing this war right from the start. Especially all of these 'mindless assaults, regardless the cost' - are all run on his direct orders.
As Ukrainian I think that it very cynical but I hope Israel finish it faster instead wasting Jdams and money to bomb Palestinians. Do you know something about losses of Ukraine on the left bank of Dnipro, because I've seen some posts about it in Ukrainian social media that "or we take left bank or marines ends earlier"? And you talked that for cover of possible pontoon bridge ZSU could deploy some long range SAM like Patriot, but why didn't they do it during summer controffensive in order to prevent permanent Russian bombarding.Thanks for repirt
Patriot batteries cannot cover the whole of Ukraine. You either cover Kiyv and other big cities and infrastructure, or you cover troops (at greater risk to the Patriot batteries). You cannot do both. Similar problem with the Hawk batteries - with 6 systems, you can cover only so much.
Maybe the rumoured upgrade of Buk batteries with AMRAAM missiles will be a big help for medium range coverage from air attacks
You guys also need western airborne platforms in order to take out those Russian jets. Simply relying on Patriot SAMs is not going to be enough. I hope you can get F16s as soon as possible with the right electronics systems and missiles. Otherwise our government here is too slow in increasing the production of Patriot batteries and other such systems.
We are talking about months perspective, because first f 16 will not be earlier a spring of 2024. Moreover F-16 MLU will not be able to fight su 35 in open battle, if radar isn't replaced by new one. Only Gripens D with meteors missles will be able to do it. Now Ukraine has 2 batteries and it is a resource that they have for operations now.
Yes very terrible planning from our leaders here. This should have been started last year when everyone was saying so. You'll eventually get the nicer F16s as well. Slava Ukraini
Thanks for your sane perspective. It stands out from the blizzard of distorted media coverage. Don't ever get discouraged by the idiots.
Gen. Zaluzhny acknowledges what has been understood since at least mid-summer, that the summer campaign has not been able to shift the stalemate. In his opinion as published in a white paper and recounted to The Economist, as gleaned from a skim, only AI drone swarms and advanced EW can overcome an opponent of the size and nature of the VSRF. That would seem a forlorn goal to pin one's ambitions on...
And some fighter jets and more armored vehicles and other equipment that Ukraine doesn't have (at least not in necessary amount) 😞
Unfortunately our WH dinosaurs are not considering these advancements. And the Russians are adapting much better than our dinosaurs want to help.
Do you have a link to this white paper and/or Economist piece?
https://infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalContent/ZALUZHNYI_FULL_VERSION.pdf
Yup. He also added that F-16s aren't going to be as useful for the PSU as widely hoped for.
Yes, because there are not so many of them.
as comrade Stalin is rumored to have said, "quantity has its own quality"
For what it is worth I was somewhat surprised by the following article pessimism by the Time.
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
Especially the bit about manpower. Obviously, losses are painful. Every single one. But I thought UKR had some margin.
Other main axis are as every bit as depressing. About Zelensky going full retarded re Palestine. His administration beginning to realize the sort Western lend lease Ukraine needs to win decisively will never materialize. The corruption thing.
Now I dont know what credibility the journalist has but given the echos we had lately and speech like Arestovych's, I find it hard to just brush aside it.
This is going to be a difficult winter. And unlike the previous one, there wont even be the hope for a decisive summer offensive to cling into.
On a completely unrelated subject, there are two long interviews of French fighters in Ukraine. They talk about the situation, their units, their mission, previous battles (including Bakhmut), equipment, etc. For those interested. If auto-translator is not enough, I may do a quick summary in English.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdaeAZFqPGY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBJVh-GyMQ0
The interviewer is an ex French Armée de l'Air officer turn Youtuber.
That specific jorno from Time (Simon Shuster) is a russian that emigrated to US and most of his career has been focused on Russia, including living in Russia for a number of years. His impartiality is questionable at best..
Tiz really something that a fascist supporter of Puke, that has been treating the general Palestinian population like shit for years and killing class act journalists like Shireen Abu Akleh, is not getting condemnation for role in this mess. Reminds me of how we supported that sociopathic mass murderer Pinochet and looked the other way when he tortured and killed so, so many truely decent human beings like Allende. Yea