Ukraine War, 1 November 2023: Onslaught on Avdiivka

Hello everybody!

For ‘the end of the day’, and since the German media is meanwhile in overdrive between declaring the war in Ukraine for secondary in importance in comparison to Israel, and almost complaining the Leopard-2-equipped 47^th Mech has been re-deployed to the Avdiivka area, a relatively short update on the situation in the Avdiivka area (and yes, it took the ‘top’ of German Experten only about a week to realise the 47th Mech is not in southern Zaporizhzhya any more….)

The last three-four days, the VSRF run a tactical re-organisation of its units in this area, before returning to offensive operations. Think, I have already mentioned that the 114^th MRB was reinforced by 277^th Rifle Regiment: meanwhile, it received parts of the 15^th MRB, too. Furthermore, they’ve brought in two additional brigades, including the 21^st and 55^th MRBs. These are trying to achieve a break-through in direction of Stepnove. Further to the rear, they’re preparing the 90^th Tank Division.

That is, this is just a part of the story: most important news is that since 30 October, the Keystone Cops are trying to mimic Wagner PMC’s operations from the Bakhmut area of the last winter. They have returned parts of ex-Wagner units back to the front, and are now combining these with Storm-Z-Detachments: convicts, poorly trained, inadequately dressed, given arms and then sent into attacks without properly air- or artillery support.

Sure, the incompetence of Russian commanders at tactical levels is meanwhile reaching such low levels that all the units are ‘steered per remote control’ by generals from headquarters well away from the frontline – apparently: directly by the Keystone Cops in Moscow. These issuing orders, including detailed instructions, about routes and methods of attacks. Without sufficient reconnaissance or mutual support between different units.

No steps are taken for recovery of casualties from the battlefield (which is further increasing the number of Russian casualties) and whatever different units are doing in this regards – is constantly hampered by Ukrainian artillery, which is meanwhile dominating this battlefield. As a consequence, yes, Russian losses are regularly reaching 60-70% of the involved personnel.

BUT, do not make a mistake: the tactics of launching such – disorganised, poorly planned, and based on entirely unrealistic assumptions – attacks, is having its results, too. One should keep in mind that killing, say, 70 out of 100 attacking Russian convicts, not only costs ammunition and time, but is making Ukrainian troops tired. And then there are not only 30 others that are still alive, but the Russians are promptly sending another 100 into a new attack… As assessed already in my last update, and mentioned above: that’s where only the superiority of Ukrainian artillery can make the difference. ….as long as the same is receiving enough ammunition…

Besides, while the Russian artillery is failing, it’s gradually replaced by a huge number of FPVs. Moreover, operators of the Russian FPVs are getting ever better. Over the last few days, they’ve knocked out at least two Leopard 2s and T-64s each, at least one Bradley, and about a dozen of other armoured vehicles of the ZSU.

It is in this fashion that the Russians have not only secured the slag heap, but most of the territory north of it, all the way along the eastern side of the railway berm, by yesterday. This morning, the news is that they have managed to cross the railway and are assaulting directly on Stepove. They’re also close to the Avdiivka Coke Works, though not yet inside it: assaults are almost relentless, and regardless how many casualties are they suffering, how often are they forced to withdraw, the Russians are still coming in huge numbers.

That much about the northern flank (principally held by the Ukrainian 1^st Tank, 47^th and 59^th Mech).

The south flank (53^rd and 110^th Mech), is holding slightly better. They’ve got it slightly easier because the starting points for Russian assaults (primarily the Pisky area) are well within the range of Ukrainian artillery.

All of this is also why Ukrainians have run a series of MRLS/HIMAS-attacks on several Russian fuel- and supply depots well behind the frontline, in between of Luhansk and Donetsk. One of these also demolished a battalion of the 1251^st MRR from Tchuvashia that was in the process of deploying to the front, and lost between 47 and 120 KIA and WIA.

Bottom line: mind, this is still just the beginning of this battle. One must expect the things to become much worse – so much so, that some of Ukrainians are already asking if they can hold Avdiivka at all.

But hey: Ukraine is of secondary priority in comparison to Israel…