76 Comments
Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you, that was interesting

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

If the F-16s have Link 16, then could they not use longer range versions of the AIM-120, given that the F-16s will not be turning on their radar anyway?

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author

Even nicer would then be the off-board targeting capability.

See: F-16s fire their AIM-120C-7s without powering up their radars.

Such things are freaking out the Russians ever since the Turkish F-16s chopped their Su-24 out of the skies, back in November 2015...

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FB is literally talking about the same thing. As far as he is concerned, the 120 is the biggest threat coming from the F16s.

And when FB is crying and moaning, that's what we call a strong data point regarding what the VKS is nervous about.

Nice to see them cry.

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

What you have said makes you realise that medium range SAMs with a 40km max range would provide a much more cost effective solution to dealing with KA-52s and SU-25s.

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SAM systems are more vulnerable than F-16s on the whole. Drones are always hunting them.

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Yes, but you need a whole lot of them to cover the same area that an F-16 can. The F-16 moves around at .9 mach.

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author

OK... then there's going to be 'Part 6'... ;-)

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I hope that jets have Anti-Mycola pattern, the blue-yellow pattern like the Ukrainian flag. Also I wish to have 'a nice day' for their purposes.

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Ah, that Mycola is a dangerous guy...

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I've seen something flying overhead today. Either Su27 or F16 (it had large oblique tail fins). It was of sand color. Thus at least some planes have not been properly painted.

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Thanks Tom, as always precise . . . .

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Pretty sure that the towed decoys have a very narrow dynamic range for deployment, i.e. the aircraft has to be flying something close to straight and level to employ the decoy, so it's either decoy or high G maneuvers like in the MiG 28 video, not both.

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It sounds useful for flying away.

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Yep. The question is- how quickly it can be deployed after the plane did its 180, and I am guessing that anyone who knows won't be telling;)

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Bingo. Pull up, release missile, finish the loop in a dive to the deck, deploy decoy and run at max speed.

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Aug 3·edited Aug 3

The fastest breakaway from the point of mxl or bomb release with the lowest top altitude and thus the least exposure would be a 180° slice back, roll in 135° bank and pull max g, thus using the quickest tightest turn to bring the trajectory down and on the desired track. If necessary drop chaff / flares when starting the slice back.

To continue the pull up into a loop and continue that one all the way down would end on the old attack heading.

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author

I swear, I have no trace of clue what are you talking about... ;-)

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

That's OK, most of the time I have no clue what I am talking about myself;)

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author

Have already forgotten your question, too... :P

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

In a nutshell, this is how war works ;)

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Well if that is the case dont talk too much to yourself, because then you will not get sensible answers :-)

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Spot on. I couldn't explain it any better. In my opinion the 'secret sauce' for success lies with Ukraine's domestic development [and constant improvement] in long-range precision strike options using drones as they are doing now to circumvent own capability gaps, and to degrade Russian capabilities specifically designed to fight Western conventional systems (such as the F-16 system).

Bottomline: F-16 is going to be a [much restricted] tactical- and operational instrument at most, but cheap drones are the key to effective establishment of a capable AND long-term sustainable strategic strike solution. That said, the hype and obsessions around the Ukrainian F-16's do serve as a good distraction from other major Ukrainian mil-tech developments which are of much greater importance and value in the present.

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Agree. There is a big chance that Russian mi 8 was shot down by drone today. There is also rockret program that is already producing noticable results like Neptune strike in Kursk this night. Probably, next year it will increase even more like modified Neptune with cluster warhead or even ballistic. Anyway the tendency is hopeful

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Extremely informative Tom, thank you. Top Aces, also known as Canada's second [private] airforce, does provide a lot of legitimate employment opportunities for not only retired RCAF fighter pilots, but also retired German and American fighter pilots. In Canadian MSM recently it was announced that Canada would be assisting in providing Ukraine with F-16 pilot training. How can that be when the RCAF never had any F-16s, shunning the F-16 for the F-18 in the form of the CF-18? The answer: Canada's private airforce, Top Aces, does have F-16s. Top Aces, owned by retired RCAF CF-18 pilots, is very adept at the good old Canadian tradition of updating ancient aircraft with modern goodies - such as the "new" CF-18A +++ AESA and the Top Aces "new" A-4N AESA [created to provide adversary training for the CF-18 AESA.] And, of course, Top Aces AAMS upgraded F-16s to provide aggressor training for the USAF. Which is why, in an ideal world, donor F-16s for Ukraine would spend some time in Montreal and Mesa before heading to their new home.

https://skiesmag.com/news/top-aces-a-4-enters-rcaf-adversary-aircraft-training/

https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/top-aces-upgraded-a-4-skyhawks-already-boosting-canadian-cf-18-combat-training/159141.article

https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/canadas-cf-18-hornet-fighter-upgrade-programme-reaches-ioc/?cf-view

https://www.topaces.com/our-fleet/lockheed-martin-f-16a

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Can we all just accept that an F-16 is going to be lost every week and that it doesn't matter much as long as the pilots and ground crews are okay?

Like, seriously, remember the Gulf War. The bad guys get to shoot back too. They get in hits. But there are plenty of F-16 airframes out there. They can be replaced.

Syrskyi implied the other day that F-16s can get up to 40km from the border. With AIM-120D missiles, Link-16, and AWACS support, that would let a Viper strike at ruscist Sukhois operating over 100km on the other side without ever switching on its own radar.

So dash in low, pop up, release missile, then dive for the deck and run, jammers hot and decoys streaming. Any orc interceptor close enough to launch is at risk of a Patriot SAMbush or another F-16 flight lurking.

Su-25s and attack choppers will be in range of AIM-120Cs launched from 40km back. Same profile. When Moscow loses one aircraft a day for two weeks, it changes tactics.

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Highly unlikely that US will let Ukraine have the 120D. It's our best long range front line missile, and the only one. Unlike Russians and Chinese, we put all our eggs in that basket. It's being fixed right now, but for the near future, the D is what we go to war with first day.

Highly unlikely that we would compromise that missile by taking the chance of RF (and thus China/Iran) getting their hands on the wreckage.

For reference, most of our allies are still flying Cs, and that's what Ukraine got for their NASAMs.

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"It's our best long range front line missile, and the only one.".

No. AIM-174B is operational, AIM-260 is in low rate initial production.

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And then I said: "It's being fixed right now but for the near future, the D is what we go to war with first day".

What you are talking about is the "it's being fixed" part. And perhaps in a few years we will have enough of the new toys to do around. For now, and the next few years, the D is what our pilots will fly and fight with.

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Pretty sure that Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and a few others have a few hundred D models each. Others in NATO as well. If Ukraine gets only 100, that's probably good enough to kill a couple dozen Flankers. Even a few hits will make the enemy think every incoming shot is a D.

US Navy finally tweaked a Standard to fire from a Hornet, so Slammers are back to midrange work anyway. Any orc jet that dies near Ukraine is one less that can threaten anybody else, reducing the need for deep stocks.

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?? isn't Slammer the AGM-84???

What you are saying about Australia and Canada is exactly why our generals and admirals will have a fit if UA gets the Ds, that's the day-one stockpile for a Taiwan scenario, and shooting them deep into Russian territory is as good as handing them over to the Chinese for tech exploitation.

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Sorry, pilots sometimes call the Amraam Slammer on the radio, as I understand it.

Anyway, Americans who whine about tech being picked up by China ought to stick to TWZ. Anything the USA has ever produced at this point, China has.

No need to worry about a Taiwan scenario because the USA has made it abundantly clear that it won't fight anyone with nuclear weapons. If Australian and Canadian leaders are so subordinated to the USA that they can't give Ukraine some weapons, they deserve what they get in the coming years.

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Let me help you out on radio calls for missile shots courtesy of the venerable Dos Gringos band and their timeless song:

""

"Fox 1" If you got nothing left (Sparrow)

"Fox 2" It's that heater in your chest (Aim9)

"Fox 3" The only friend you ever need (AIM 120)

And then something something unpublishable about Jeremiah Weed ;)

""

As far as Chuna having all our latest hardware, I am not saying you are bullshitting, but if you are not bullshitting, please post some receipts.

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Fox 3 always was the call for a gun shot, and imho that did not change.

Fox 2 IR guidance, Fox1 radar guidance

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AIM-120D is our best publicly disclosed AA missile :))) Not our best.

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It's the one we have the largest stockpile of for day one.

If you know any different, please share;)

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I'm just a random internet dude, I could be lying :)) But you're right about the large stockpile of AIM-120D, I dont know anything about the quantities of experimental AA missiles nor am I sure they exist even though its been described to me by someone who's in the know.

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Share the good stuff if you can, no attribution required if course.

All I know is that the 174 was in black until the recent unveiling already in IOC, but the public numbers for the SM-6 line are in the low hundreds per year. So, I have no idea how much they diverted for NAVAIR (and for ground launch).

Share the good stuff sir!

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To be very honest I know nothing important/useful, nor the quantities just that AIM-120D is roughly our best publicly disclosed AA missile not our best.

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I think the problem here is the first sentence. Accept losses… yes I think I can. But then I have followed this blog for some time and learned a lot and gained an understanding if this air war relatively few has. This is not meant as bragging, I think most people who bothered to read Toms blog would understand. They simply dont read it. Most of the population would expect the F16 to dogfight the bad guys of of the skies… at least that is the fear I have of popular thinking about the air war. So i am deeply afraid that a lot of persons will not understand and accept losses. Add all those people thinking Russia is onvincible… well there will be problems. Point 8 of the list of Tom. Otherwise? Agree.

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The *russia is invincible* crowd is about the same as the *america is an unbeatable technological powerhouse*

Cheerleaders, all. Lots of people were insisting that Biden would never, ever step down and that those of us calling for that were bedwetters until guess what? It happened.

Americans don't like me because I know this country and russia are both proper fucked and am not afraid to say it out loud :)

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Maybe its the same crowd in the US, I am less sure about Europe. But yes, overlaps.

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To be fair, when it comes to a high tech military powerhouse, we are still the undefeated champion. No one is unbeatable (future tense), but we are unbeaten (past tense) in high tech peer warfare.

Nation building and proxy wars OTOH, we don't do those so good. But that's a command, goals and will thing. Without those 3, our best toys don't matter.

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HAH!

Since when has the US fought a high tech opponent to prove that claim? Never. And with the leaders it has, it'll likely roll over before ever having to.

US gear is Cold War era stuff that's only useful nowadays because the alternative is mostly Soviet junk. The US military is run by people whose doctrine amounts to trying to imitate Patton in 1944.

When your entire national ethos amounts to futile chest-thumping, defeat is inevitable. The USA today is Britain in 1940.

Every veteran who ever served this country has been betrayed by their leaders. Like I always say - the West Coast alone is a better bulwark against China without the rest of the USA than as part of this stupid zombie monster.

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If you are asking "when has the US ever been in a fair fight" the answer is - never. And that's by design, we like to have superiority in tech and/or logistics to make the fights as unfair as possible.

Is our stuff the "best" whatever that means? Probably not across the board, but all of it works, we can afford to train with it a whole lot, amd we have it in very large quantities, all of which adds up to my point above: still undefeated in technological state on state warfare.

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Ah yes, throw some words together and pretend it’s a functioning argument. American thought at its finest!

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Jul 31·edited Jul 31

Trying to understand this, so i went to google, but did not get any smater. Is AMRAAM D the same as AIM 120 C-8 ? And then AIM120D is something else?

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Google is next to useless these days. If you want a quick comparison or clarification the free ChatGPT agent is far better. Instead of reading and comparing multiple Wikipedia pages (all written by different people with little unifying style or layout) you get your answer within a minute and based on my spot check it's fairly accurate. Ar worst it simply refuses to answer or gives a very broad nothing answer like when i asked about Ukrainian air frame losses during the war. https://chat.openai.com/

I put your question in there word for word and here's what it wrote:

The AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) has several variants, each with different designations and capabilities. Here's a breakdown to clarify the differences:

1. **AIM-120C Series**: This includes variants from AIM-120C-5 to AIM-120C-8. Each of these models represents incremental improvements over the previous versions. The AIM-120C-8, specifically, is one of the latest versions in the C series, incorporating various upgrades in range, guidance, and electronic warfare capabilities.

2. **AIM-120D**: This is a distinct and more advanced variant compared to the AIM-120C series. It offers significant improvements over the AIM-120C, including better range, improved targeting capabilities, and enhanced resistance to countermeasures. The AIM-120D represents a major step forward in the evolution of the AMRAAM family.

3. **AMRAAM-ER (Extended Range)**: This is an extended range version of the AMRAAM. It integrates the AIM-120D's guidance section with a new rocket motor and control section to increase its range and altitude performance.

To directly address your questions:

- The **AIM-120C-8** is indeed an advanced version within the AIM-120C series.

- The **AIM-120D** is a separate and more advanced variant than the AIM-120C series, including the C-8.

In summary, while the AIM-120C-8 is a part of the AIM-120C series with specific enhancements, the AIM-120D is a newer and more capable variant altogether.

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AIM 120 is the official designation for the AMRAAM missile. C and D are different variant lines, with C-8 apparently coming close to D capabilities but not quite there.

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Still a bit confused, but it looks like we have bought a lot of AIM 120 c 8.

Hopefully we dont need them all, and can give som of them to someone.

https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/norway-secures-approval-for-purchase-of-300-amraams/158744.article

And this one, that confused me with the D. https://www.govconwire.com/2022/11/norway-signs-494m-agreement-to-buy-raytheon-built-amraam-d-missiles/

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Great long read. Ty for the analysis

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Another invaluable asset for the F-16 would be the Sniper pod which can enable "silent" search, tracking and targeting, for AAMs too.

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I recall a discussion from some months ago about the F-16, being a light and nimble plane, is designed more for high-altitude operations. If they regularly fly under the radar, won't the turbulence rattle the bejesus out of their frames and pilots' brains?

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author

Of course it will. But, not as bad as on MiG-29s, Su-27s or... well, should any ever be delivered to Ukraine: Mirage 2000s.

F-16s actually have a relatively small wing surface. What's making them manoeuverable is the high thrust-to-weight ratio. Mind the Israelis flew them at 30 metres altitude from Eilat to Baghdad, back in 1981.

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Riding a rocket 30m off the ground sounds AWFUL! I am sure that fighter pilots are quitting in numbers when asked to do such a dastardly thing ;)

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Aug 1·edited Aug 1

It is actually a lot of fun, as long as nothing is shot at you.

A little clip from Goosebay Training 100 feet.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ak3tjUIS60o&list=PLDC90A61421D5127F&index=6&pp=iAQB

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It sounds absolutely awful;))

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Aug 1·edited Aug 1

And as it fits, our Dutch friends with their F-16 in Goosebay. The low level part starts at about 10 minutes. Note the beautiful view out of this cockpit.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ETfgLlfeFVo

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Bravo Zulu!!

Jokes aside, to the question above, a fighter pilot may or may not give his right testicle to the devil get to do low levels all day every day...

But what do I know;)

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I read once that F16s can be fitted with MIDS which is a later version of LINK16 that also gets information direct from the AWACS which would be helpful.

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author

Yup. Also use the Sniper targeting pod for 'silent approach': i.e. for cueing air-to-air missiles without powering up the radar.

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Jul 31·edited Jul 31

From the Kyivpost; Ukrainian HUR Special Forces Deliver Devastating Strike on Russian Base in Syria

Exclusive footage from Kyiv Post sources shows HUR special forces carrying out a complex strike on a Russian airbase in Syria, destroying military equipment a day after the Putin-Assad meeting.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36646

Mali one day and Syria the next, they certainly get around.

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Thanks for the analysis, very intersting. One thing that strikes me regarding the air war is how digitalised the whole thing is. And obviously has been for quite some time. Most of society dies not know. It probably is true in a lot of other areas of the war as well. While I liked the analysis it almost felt like you wrote «there is no use in these F16s» at all, please drop them. But I hope I misread, after all there must be some use. If nothing Else shaking up Gen Stab U? Regarding the effect I think it will be limited regardless of how they are used. I honestly think the important successes weapon wise will come from drones. Since there is no bad practices to «de-learn» here the Ukrainians can develop freely.

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Aug 1·edited Aug 1

Well, there is one bad practice. 70% kickback from funds for production.

And another one: mobilizing miltech employees to assault brigades.

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Jul 31Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks Tom this is a very interesting report and time will tell what happens

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