On 10 July… yes, meanwhile, that’s now more than two weeks ago… the White House has officially granted permission for (‘actual’) delivery of F-16s to Ukraine.
Thanks for the update. I think I have heard Russia promising huge pay outs for destroying F16s. So your informed guesses see,s to be correct. It is really fascinating how everyone focus on this. In a way the most important contribution from these planes is the distraction value.
Where in Romania are the F16s is not hard since there are only 2 air bases (actually 1 but I am feeling generous and include the 2nd-with some restrictions) from where it can operate, Borcea and Campia Turzii. MK air base is too close to the "danger zone" . But as far as I know there are no Ukrainian or Ukrainian pledged F16s in Romania. Only the Romanian ones and very few Dutch ones, part of the training center. And no Ukr pilot has set foot in that center until today. Even if somebody wanted to, there is simply no place for Ukr pilots because Romania is currently receiving 2 more squadrons and needs pilots and crews like air.
The version I've heard is that the 'advanced' group of PSU pilots (those with already 'relatively good' English) are trained in Romania.
....and, apparently, I'm not the only one who has heard that story, because as soon as some Dutch F-16s were transferring to Romania, I've got a 'zillion' of questions in style of, 'are they already delivering (to Ukraine)'....?
Nope, not in Romania, as far as I know. 3 Dutch F16 arrived in Romania and some Lockheed guys , that's it, the whole BIG MEGA FANTASTIC training center.
Same like yesterday, when some idiots filmed themselves from the other bank of the Danube during a Russian Geran attack on Izmail and said that Rom Gepards opened fire on Russian drones. Of course everybody took it like the duck takes corn grain. Nope again, never happened.
You know that song "nu vorbi fara sa stii...."? There are about a dozen Dutch F-16s in Ro, Lockeed provides the maintainers, while some of the instructor pilots are from a private US agressor squadron. All this is public info available in Ro media if you'll bother to check. The number of Ukr pilots and maintainers and their approximate arrival timeframe were also published.
Vorbesti prostii ! Have you dreamt this ? We are in July and the OUG for budgeting the training of Ukr personnel has just been approved. No Ukr personnel is being trained there now, zero. There are 8 dutch F16 in the base but only 3 are operational, today. Don't look into the politicians mouth, they tend to speak only bullshit.
There are 14 Dutch F-16: 5 arrived in november, 3 each in march, april and now in july. Any source for only 3 operational? You claimed in the initial post that there is no place for ukr training. Yes, there is, the government decision to finance it is proof, even if very recent. There will be 50 trainees (pilots and maintainers combined)
14 pcs arrived, yes, but right now only 3 are operational. An extra 5 could be made operational quickly, the other 6, not so much. From the decision to finance the program to actually happening it's a long way to go. What to you want me to tell you, that they don't even have a bus to take the people to and from the city ? Right now there is no room in the program for them. In the future, we will see but THIS IS SPAR...ah shit no...ROMANIA. Plus, the priority is and has always been for Romanian pilots for the 2 extra squadrons coming from Norway and for the existing one.
Because of all the hype around F-16's for Ukraine they will be the most precious items for Ukraine to protect. Not because of what they can supposedly achieve militarily, but because if they get destroyed on the ground thanks to sloppy defences this could weaken interest from Western partners in supplying more items of precious kit. One factor in Ukraine's favour here is that Russia may struggle to provide irrefutable evidence of a hit so deep behind the frontline.
Political considerations aside, I expect it would be a better outcome for Ukraine to lose an F-16 than a power station, in which case the presence of F-16's becomes a helpful diversion of Russian attention and resources.
Why is this rush of russkies about F16s?? They bragged all the time that they have uber-mega-extra Su-xx fighters aircraft. So why they should be worried? 🤷♂️
Remember deliveries of Leo 2s and M1s: mere mention of them prompted the Russian PRBS-industrialists into launching fake news about 'destroyed' one or another.... months before these actually arrived on the battlefield.
Thanks Tom for the article. Wouldn't it be easier to allow Ukraine to strike airfields deep inside Russia with ATACMS missiles and then there would be no need for F-16s. According to military experts F-16s are needed to repel Russian planes, which I highly doubt they will do. Considering how the West is providing weapons to Ukraine. They may give the planes, but they will have too few long-range missiles and then the F-16s will be a big problem for Ukraine, given their value.
Sounds like the rumours of Wunderwaffen are very effective at wasting Russian resources, regardless of how wonderful ancient F-16s actually are.
This theory about OTH radars is interesting. Surely equally likely is that they were hit because they were there, because they were static, and because the Ukrainians have been trying to normalize the escalatory tactics of striking across the Russian border, and one way to set that precedent effectively is to hit elements sensitive to the Russian WMD complex. It gets the PR message out "well Putin rants about nuclear war, but we already blew up his EW radars and nothing happened see?" It was never really a clever idea.
Yet another excellent analysis. I keep recommending your site everywhere I can, including the UK "Telegraph Ukraine The Latest" podcast which is operated by extremely well informed people. I hope they're reading your analyses.
If I interpret your article correctly, the delivery of F-16 is the best protection of Ukrainian civilians possible as the Russian are already storing their missiles. Ukraine needs to be good at playing hide and seek though to keep it working...
I always thank Tom for his hard work covering military events in Ukraine and around the world. This is very important in a situation where almost all the state's media lull us to sleep with sweet lies from the president. So thank you again.
Thank you for this text! What effect will the delivery of F-16s have on Ukrainian air defense? As far as I understand, many air defenses will be redirected to protect the F-16s, potentially leaving cities and infrastructure more vulnerable.
If NATO had any guts, they'd base the F-16s in Poland and tell the Russians to come and get them. The Russians launched the war from Belarus and no one touched their bases there, so why not return the favor? Alas, no one in Washington is brave enough to suggest that, let alone approve it despite the Russians clearly not being brave enough to call NATOs bluff.
Don't make things more complicated than they really are.
It is clear and understandable that one's enemy operational aircraft are high value targets, regardless of type. In our case Russia has and will in the future try to attack these aircraft and the locations they are stationed with their available means. To assume the arrival of the F-16 would enable the Russia to achieve more results than they could with the existing Ukrainian air assets or that they would have spared some assets to mount a big success against it is understandable, I doubt that such plans exist, and if they do, that they will be successful. The defence of an airfield doesn't change considerably with the type of aircraft, with the arrival of the F-16 the abilities to defend the airfield even improved. Without going in to all details any airbase with fighter aircraft will use some of those aircraft for base defence, and the F-16 can do this job a lot better than the present Russian built aircraft. A pair of F-16 can loiter in a "base cap" for quite some time, my estimate would be up to two hours with external tanks and cover more airspace with their radar and advanced weapons. One pair would be on permanent 10 minute ground alert, fueled, armed and with the pilot in the cockpit. The other operational ones on ground would be on 15, 30 or 60 minutes alert, when an attack would be expected and scramble to safe the aircraft, defence the airfield or go on preplanned missions. The considerable longer endurance of the F-16 again is an advantage against the present airframes, they can loiter longer or divert farther away if necessary.
What I'm saying, the exposure to an threat of an incoming attack is the same as before, the own defence capabilities will be increased.
Using streets and highways as dislocation airfields was trained in the cold war, Romania trained it with their F-16 not long ago. The F-16 is smaller, thus the landing strip and parking spots can be smaller too. They need less fuel, which is less fuel trucks or smaller ones. Mobile ATC is standard equipment, refueling is anyway done from trucks, the same is true for weapons. Some logistic is necessary to move the equipment from the home base to the diversion strip, therefore you would seek one within the close vicinity of the airbase.
Summery, even if the Russians will seek to destroy the F-16 in the ground their chances to succeed are imho not better than with the present types flown.
Will it be a game changer? I think so, any additional asset is better than none . We will see how this will oirk out in the near future.
Thanks Tom, its going to be interesting watching what is going to happen, I'm hoping for the best for Ukraine
Thanks Tom, I really appreciate the way you analyze, pull a thread and find a lot of information
Perfectly logical…so much focus on such relatively little asset value means the media/morale impact of taking one or more out is massively amplified!
Thanks for the update. I think I have heard Russia promising huge pay outs for destroying F16s. So your informed guesses see,s to be correct. It is really fascinating how everyone focus on this. In a way the most important contribution from these planes is the distraction value.
Where in Romania are the F16s is not hard since there are only 2 air bases (actually 1 but I am feeling generous and include the 2nd-with some restrictions) from where it can operate, Borcea and Campia Turzii. MK air base is too close to the "danger zone" . But as far as I know there are no Ukrainian or Ukrainian pledged F16s in Romania. Only the Romanian ones and very few Dutch ones, part of the training center. And no Ukr pilot has set foot in that center until today. Even if somebody wanted to, there is simply no place for Ukr pilots because Romania is currently receiving 2 more squadrons and needs pilots and crews like air.
The version I've heard is that the 'advanced' group of PSU pilots (those with already 'relatively good' English) are trained in Romania.
....and, apparently, I'm not the only one who has heard that story, because as soon as some Dutch F-16s were transferring to Romania, I've got a 'zillion' of questions in style of, 'are they already delivering (to Ukraine)'....?
Nope, not in Romania, as far as I know. 3 Dutch F16 arrived in Romania and some Lockheed guys , that's it, the whole BIG MEGA FANTASTIC training center.
Same like yesterday, when some idiots filmed themselves from the other bank of the Danube during a Russian Geran attack on Izmail and said that Rom Gepards opened fire on Russian drones. Of course everybody took it like the duck takes corn grain. Nope again, never happened.
You know that song "nu vorbi fara sa stii...."? There are about a dozen Dutch F-16s in Ro, Lockeed provides the maintainers, while some of the instructor pilots are from a private US agressor squadron. All this is public info available in Ro media if you'll bother to check. The number of Ukr pilots and maintainers and their approximate arrival timeframe were also published.
Vorbesti prostii ! Have you dreamt this ? We are in July and the OUG for budgeting the training of Ukr personnel has just been approved. No Ukr personnel is being trained there now, zero. There are 8 dutch F16 in the base but only 3 are operational, today. Don't look into the politicians mouth, they tend to speak only bullshit.
https://monitorulapararii.ro/pilotii-ucraineni-mai-aproape-de-pregatirea-in-romania-mapn-a-postat-un-proiect-de-oug-pentru-finantarea-acestei-initiative-1-54881
https://www.defenseromania.ro/piloti-ucraineni-zboara-deja-cu-f-16-la-centrele-de-pregatire-din-doua-tari_627690.html
There are 14 Dutch F-16: 5 arrived in november, 3 each in march, april and now in july. Any source for only 3 operational? You claimed in the initial post that there is no place for ukr training. Yes, there is, the government decision to finance it is proof, even if very recent. There will be 50 trainees (pilots and maintainers combined)
14 pcs arrived, yes, but right now only 3 are operational. An extra 5 could be made operational quickly, the other 6, not so much. From the decision to finance the program to actually happening it's a long way to go. What to you want me to tell you, that they don't even have a bus to take the people to and from the city ? Right now there is no room in the program for them. In the future, we will see but THIS IS SPAR...ah shit no...ROMANIA. Plus, the priority is and has always been for Romanian pilots for the 2 extra squadrons coming from Norway and for the existing one.
Like I said, until now, zero Ukr.
https://hotnews.ro/ambasadoarea-sua-la-bucuresti-asteptam-cu-nerabdare-ca-romania-sa-deschida-centrul-de-instruire-f-16-in-special-pentru-ucraina-1757527
Because of all the hype around F-16's for Ukraine they will be the most precious items for Ukraine to protect. Not because of what they can supposedly achieve militarily, but because if they get destroyed on the ground thanks to sloppy defences this could weaken interest from Western partners in supplying more items of precious kit. One factor in Ukraine's favour here is that Russia may struggle to provide irrefutable evidence of a hit so deep behind the frontline.
Political considerations aside, I expect it would be a better outcome for Ukraine to lose an F-16 than a power station, in which case the presence of F-16's becomes a helpful diversion of Russian attention and resources.
Why is this rush of russkies about F16s?? They bragged all the time that they have uber-mega-extra Su-xx fighters aircraft. So why they should be worried? 🤷♂️
Remember deliveries of Leo 2s and M1s: mere mention of them prompted the Russian PRBS-industrialists into launching fake news about 'destroyed' one or another.... months before these actually arrived on the battlefield.
It's the 'we can overcome that, too'-mentality.
Thanks Tom for the update, interesting times ahead indeed. We can only hope the Ukrainians perform well in securing these.
Thanks Tom for the article. Wouldn't it be easier to allow Ukraine to strike airfields deep inside Russia with ATACMS missiles and then there would be no need for F-16s. According to military experts F-16s are needed to repel Russian planes, which I highly doubt they will do. Considering how the West is providing weapons to Ukraine. They may give the planes, but they will have too few long-range missiles and then the F-16s will be a big problem for Ukraine, given their value.
Sounds like the rumours of Wunderwaffen are very effective at wasting Russian resources, regardless of how wonderful ancient F-16s actually are.
This theory about OTH radars is interesting. Surely equally likely is that they were hit because they were there, because they were static, and because the Ukrainians have been trying to normalize the escalatory tactics of striking across the Russian border, and one way to set that precedent effectively is to hit elements sensitive to the Russian WMD complex. It gets the PR message out "well Putin rants about nuclear war, but we already blew up his EW radars and nothing happened see?" It was never really a clever idea.
Yet another excellent analysis. I keep recommending your site everywhere I can, including the UK "Telegraph Ukraine The Latest" podcast which is operated by extremely well informed people. I hope they're reading your analyses.
Thanks Tom for your article.
If I interpret your article correctly, the delivery of F-16 is the best protection of Ukrainian civilians possible as the Russian are already storing their missiles. Ukraine needs to be good at playing hide and seek though to keep it working...
I always thank Tom for his hard work covering military events in Ukraine and around the world. This is very important in a situation where almost all the state's media lull us to sleep with sweet lies from the president. So thank you again.
Thank you for this text! What effect will the delivery of F-16s have on Ukrainian air defense? As far as I understand, many air defenses will be redirected to protect the F-16s, potentially leaving cities and infrastructure more vulnerable.
If NATO had any guts, they'd base the F-16s in Poland and tell the Russians to come and get them. The Russians launched the war from Belarus and no one touched their bases there, so why not return the favor? Alas, no one in Washington is brave enough to suggest that, let alone approve it despite the Russians clearly not being brave enough to call NATOs bluff.
Don't make things more complicated than they really are.
It is clear and understandable that one's enemy operational aircraft are high value targets, regardless of type. In our case Russia has and will in the future try to attack these aircraft and the locations they are stationed with their available means. To assume the arrival of the F-16 would enable the Russia to achieve more results than they could with the existing Ukrainian air assets or that they would have spared some assets to mount a big success against it is understandable, I doubt that such plans exist, and if they do, that they will be successful. The defence of an airfield doesn't change considerably with the type of aircraft, with the arrival of the F-16 the abilities to defend the airfield even improved. Without going in to all details any airbase with fighter aircraft will use some of those aircraft for base defence, and the F-16 can do this job a lot better than the present Russian built aircraft. A pair of F-16 can loiter in a "base cap" for quite some time, my estimate would be up to two hours with external tanks and cover more airspace with their radar and advanced weapons. One pair would be on permanent 10 minute ground alert, fueled, armed and with the pilot in the cockpit. The other operational ones on ground would be on 15, 30 or 60 minutes alert, when an attack would be expected and scramble to safe the aircraft, defence the airfield or go on preplanned missions. The considerable longer endurance of the F-16 again is an advantage against the present airframes, they can loiter longer or divert farther away if necessary.
What I'm saying, the exposure to an threat of an incoming attack is the same as before, the own defence capabilities will be increased.
Using streets and highways as dislocation airfields was trained in the cold war, Romania trained it with their F-16 not long ago. The F-16 is smaller, thus the landing strip and parking spots can be smaller too. They need less fuel, which is less fuel trucks or smaller ones. Mobile ATC is standard equipment, refueling is anyway done from trucks, the same is true for weapons. Some logistic is necessary to move the equipment from the home base to the diversion strip, therefore you would seek one within the close vicinity of the airbase.
Summery, even if the Russians will seek to destroy the F-16 in the ground their chances to succeed are imho not better than with the present types flown.
Will it be a game changer? I think so, any additional asset is better than none . We will see how this will oirk out in the near future.