56 Comments
User's avatar
Vadim's avatar

IMHO, the key point of this war is to cut anti-ballistic interceptor missiles supplies to Ukraine and to increase oil prices, bolstering funding of muscovian war efforts...

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Sasha The Norwegian's avatar

Yep, Putin doesn't need Iran anymore he does need higher oil prices, and less interceptors in Ukraine.

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Tupolev16's avatar

Sure thing. The whole world is spinning around Ukraine. I would dare to go for more: even WW1&WW2 were started to weaken Ukraine....to say nothing about Caesar's capture of Gallia...

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Roy's avatar

Fuck off comrade. You are needed for the next meatwave.

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Vadim's avatar

I kind of guessed you'd say that, even before opening your comment.

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Марченко Сергей's avatar

Alas. This war does not affect the cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine - this is Trump's current political course.

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Frode's avatar

Israel is not working for Russia. They are more self cetered than that.

This war without meaning has probably only one purpose. To shift the focus from Gaza so they can do their humanitarian work there.

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Joshu's Dog's avatar

If anything it might be the opposite.

And interestingly, the only thing that has ever actually been demonstrably shown to link Putin and Trump is their mutual connections to the shady Chabad cult.

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Vadim's avatar

They don't work for, but they might cooperate.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Israel - not. Netanyahu... ho-hum...

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WS68's avatar

Great post. Are you sure that is a drop tank and not some guy going surfing?

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

USA has no desire to police Middle East now , they have their own ample oil reserves and in their neighbourhood (Canada , South America). This continued support for Israel now lacks justification.

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Dannylo's avatar

The support for Israel lacks justfication for a while ago, like deacades ago

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James's avatar

There are a LOT of US votes linked to Zionism. Apparently there are getting on for a million US citizens living in Israel.

There are also a lot of very important campaign contributions entirely dependent on support for Zionism.

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

So why can't China buy them out with few billions.

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James's avatar

As I understand it, foreign campaign contributions are illegal - the Zionist money comes from US supporters of Israel -though doubtless some of that originates in Tel Aviv.

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James Touza's avatar

We must inform most of the nomenklatura in DC that there is no need to send billions of $ to Israel!

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H V's avatar
1dEdited

I would not subscribe to the "conspiracy" that there is some hidden grand scheme. I think that this whole sad circus where the common people in Tehran and Tel Aviv have to endure pointless suffering is just this - one politician-turned-thug (Bibi) needs to cover a stupid war (that he helped to start by doing nothing for a decade or so) with even more stupid war. Like we know that aerial campaigns alone won so many wars before and this one is even easier because the objective is so clear... And because every idiot needs a counterpart that is willing to dance with him - we have endless line of bearded angry clerics who waste potential of Iranian people for decades on idiotic proxy wars, stockpiling rockets and making sure everyone within their reach is miserable. It costs billions, both sides know that they cannot win (and make sure not to actually articulate what winning should look like). And at the end everyone close and far will be impacted in some way. Just angry old guys in charge on both sides who rule for so long that they believe their own bullshit. And people are dying because of it.

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Michaelangelo's avatar

A TWZ article quoted from IDF claims 120 launchers/TELs destroyed. Waiting for part 3.

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H V's avatar

That number seems dubious like hell. Unless the Iranians parked them side by side at parking lot and put sign next to them. Like I get all the near-live feeds they can get from drones and other stuff, but at the end the TEL looks like a truck. Unless you see it actually launching a missile, you cannot be sure what it was.

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James's avatar

Decoy TELs are not expensive or difficult to make. If there are really good secondary pyrotechnics you know it was a TEL. Otherwise, it is a "maybe" at best.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Visually confirmed are some 12-15.

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Allan's avatar

Thank you for a superb post - very interesting as to the anti-Semitic attacks on the IAF. In just interview old Bibi looked very pale and drawn. Without a shadow of a doubt the ballistic missile barrage of the last few days gave some higher ups in the IDF a very nasty surprise. From purely an amateur know nothing perspective you could feel the iron dome / arrow system start to buckle. The sight of ballistic missiles hitting targets anti-Semitic or not is horrifying. It reminded me again that is the UK and Europeans don’t get their act together pronto on Ukraine that is what will be coming to a city near them in the next decade. I used to work with a lot of Iranians in a number of jobs and they are a lovely bunch. I had a colleague who as in the IRGC and a nicer person you could not possibly meet. He was an atheist and had nothing but contempt for the beards. I hope some positives come out of this but I am not optimistic. The targeting of army and IRGC facilities makes total sense if you are going for regime change. My question is what comes after? The Shah regime was not pleasant SAVAK were very cruel but Khomeini was even fouler. You did make me laugh with how the regime edited your books - I have read your stuff on Angola and my word out of all the books and articles written yours was by far and away the most accurate and balanced. So the editing made me laugh… as well as the bits about crediting the IRGAF with IRAF kills which is next level pathetic. What has happened to the IRGAF? The last i looked up anything about them they were flying FT-7s. Are they still around?

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RSentongo's avatar

Thanks for the write up. Trump is meeting with Pakistani Gen Asim Munir(Chief of Staff). Maybe there are plans to prevent Pakistan from acting as a reinforcement hub for Iran. A channel through which China could send equipment for example. The battle is definitely not done.

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Zodiac's avatar

A very interesting read. Information I don’t see from other sources. I can’t help but seeing this war as Netanyahu vs the Mullah, with a third old man jumping around on the sidelines looking for an opportunity to be branded as undocumented savior of the Middle East.

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James Coffey's avatar

A third old man? Oh that's just great! 51.5% of the active U.S. electorate gave a 3 years old a loaded revolver to play with ... or should I say gave him a B-2 bomber or two or three or ... to play with? Gawd help us all!

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Zodiac's avatar

As a footnote to claims:

"Indian Prime Minister Modi told Trump that the ceasefire with Pakistan in May was the result of direct military-to-military talks, not US mediation.

This was a response to Trump's statement that it was the US that helped achieve”peace.

Epic fail for the self-appointed peacekeeper.

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James Coffey's avatar

Self-appointed peacekeeper? Along with other self-proclaimed credit for doing what he didn't do in the first place, another typical example of an inveterate liar, LYING! What a pathetic misfit.

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James Touza's avatar

He will get the Nobel Prize for Inventive Fabulist Creativity, or in plain English, Lying.

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Dickson's avatar
1dEdited

'What will "VICTORY (???)" look like?' <---sarcasm

When the US gets dragged into this mess (EXHIBIT 1: USAF starts bombing).

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

You have installed "not an anti-Semitic" as auto correct feature :D

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Tupolev16's avatar

Amazing to see Iranian disability to cope serially with large Hermes targets. While Houties are slaughtering Reapers with Iranian SAMs (!!!) en masse, Iranians themselves are failing to repeat it. Ok, F-35s are hard targets, but drones....

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Alejo Quiroga's avatar

Bueno, hay que aclarar que los israelíes atacaron los IADS del oeste de Irán, también el posible uso de EW y saturación de área con UAVs. Los iraníes deben estar muy ocupados con sus SAMs.

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Tupolev16's avatar

No doubts of that. However, a drone (a big one) is much easier target than cruise missile or gliding bomb.

Also, Israeli fighters are not around 24/7, especially for air dominance missions. Therefore, I have a good hint for Iranians what to do:

https://youtu.be/x8VZQJkxOjk?si=q5hvW7spw1EbFhTl

Spring 2008, a Russian Mig-29 is downing Georgian Hermes-450 near Abkhazia with an Archer (guess, R-60mk will do as well)

With more than 30 Fulcrums in Iranian possesion, the solution is very clear.

Since gratis advice spoil customers, dear Iranian chieftans, if U follow my recommendation, please send me a good Persian carpet per each downed Hermes.)))))

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Alejo Quiroga's avatar

Con el tema de los cazas está muy complicado, como explicó Tom, la IRGC se encargó del desfinanciamiento de la IRIAF en las últimas décadas.

También la IRIAF experimenta problemas de repuestos con los MiG-29 (y Su-24MK) desde mediados de los 90s, dudo mucho que tengan un escuadrón entero de MiGs en condiciones de combate (al menos vi uno en vuelo en un video hace unos días).

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Mike Green's avatar

Sure, drones are "easy" targets — just like those countless Ukrainian UAVs flying into Russian territory, exploding on airfields, oil depots, and radar stations... all while "world-class" Russian air defense systems are supposedly on guard.

So yes, if Russia — with S-400s, Pantsirs, and a full radar grid — still struggles to intercept propeller-driven drones, it’s obvious Iran will easily solve it by sending 1980s MiG-29s into the sky. No AWACS, no modern IFF — but hey, confidence is half the battle, right?

And of course, strategic partnership papers are powerful shields — just ask Armenia how that worked out.

Anyway, dear Iranian generals, if your Fulcrums down even one drone using ancient R-60s — be sure to send that Persian carpet. Gold trim preferred.

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Tupolev16's avatar

Miky, you are trying to be witty and I do appreciate this. However, your overdependance on UA propaganda "proven" sources and Don's bush-league reports are making your statements somewhat...lame.

1) First of all, do not mix killer-drones and strike drones. Anyway, Liutiy or UJ-22 kamikadze drones hitting home only at defensless places, when Pantsirs around - no way to break thru.

However, we are speaking here about strike or big recon drones over Iran. Their UA peers - Bayraktars are dead and gone long ago (by mid 2023), had been destroyed by Buks mainly. In the same manner couple of dozens Hermeses are not a big challenge. Of course, Fulcrums cannot cover all shitholes as Iran is huge, however 7-9 largest cities can get a good air guard against big drones.

2) R-60 latest mod is a very potent weapon. Most famous kill is Iranian Tomcat downed by Iraqi Mig-23ML back in 1984. Google for other kills. Slow and big Hermes will be an easy target. Still, I mentiomed R-60 as an supplement to Arches.

Bottom line: please feel free to criticise and modernise my idea for Iranians but in constructive mode. And may be you will get couple of rugs for assistance.))))

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Mike Green's avatar

OhTupolev16 the irony is priceless.

You’re bashing Don and mocking Ukrainian sources — yet somehow, you read Don’s blog more attentively than his own followers. Quoting it, analyzing it, and still pretending it’s me who's relying on his “bush-league reports”? That’s rich.

Let me guess: you need Don’s posts as fuel just to craft your own rebuttals? Because for someone so dismissive, you sure spend a lot of time reading him.

And about “Ukrainian propaganda” — yeah, let’s all pretend the Russian MoD briefings and cropped Telegram clips are beacons of truth. At least Ukrainian reports don’t claim they shot down the same drone three days in a row.

So, here's the bottom line: if Don's blog is so low-tier, stop building your entire argument around reacting to it. Unless, of course, it hits a little too close to home. ;)

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Iran has no 30 MiG-29s: might have had some 28 or so in the 1990s. Quite a few have been destroyed in IASF early strikes on the TFB.2/Tabriz. Only those at TFB.1/Mehrabad have been flown out, but the stock of their AAMs is meanwhile 30-years-old.

I.e. they are less useful than F-4s and F-14s.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

The only problem is the sheer size of Iran.

Otherwise, by the (arguably: claimed by Iran) rate at which the Israeli UAVs are shot down: I wonder how many of Hermes' have they got on stock...

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Chris P.'s avatar

If people and livelihoods weren't being wiped out there, one could only laugh again at this silly soap opera of egomaniacal men who seem to have complexities to overcome.

But apart from that, the US is now supporting the whole thing, at least with its flying tankers. Combined with the Israeli drones working overtime over Iran, the tactic (clever, of course) allows the jets to essentially stay in the air continuously, very close to Iran, just waiting until the drones find a TEL or something else, and then the jets can take off without wasting any time. Could this pose a serious problem for the Iranian TELs, or is Iran really too big for this tactic to work?

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Alejo Quiroga's avatar

Ahora los cielos de Israel (y de Jordania e Irak) están a salvo por dos Tomcats antisemitas menos (sí es que estaban en condiciones de vuelo).

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Sorry, but that article is nonsense.

The videos were released on the 16th: the attack on these two 'Tomcats' - which turned out to be decoys - took place early on 13 June.

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Roy's avatar

I detest the mullahs. That said, the abrogation of the JCPOA was intended to engineer this situation. A casus belli for the destruction of the Iranian regime. Exactly the same result that was effected by the WMD fiction in Iraq. How well that worked out...

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Марченко Сергей's avatar

A report has emerged that Israel is running out of anti-aircraft missiles.

https://newsyou.info/2025/06/izra%d1%97lyu-brakuye-raket-arrow-dlya-perexoplennya-iranskix-raket-wsj

This may be the reason for the information about the US possibly entering the conflict.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to shell Israel using its newest missiles.

https://unn.ua/news/iran-zaiavyv-pro-pershyi-boiovyi-zapusk-balistyky-serednoi-dalnosti-sadzhyl

https://newformat.info/news/iran-zapustyv-po-izrailiu-dvostupinchastu-nadvazhku-balistychnu-raketu-sadzhil/

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James's avatar

When every abbreviation, for either side, starts with "I", it is very hard to follow. I'm just waiting for the IMHO to launch an ICBM at the IMF.

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Jonah Mitchell's avatar

You forgot IHOP!

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

How, you can't follow when IASF, IRGC, IRGCAF, IRIADF, and IRIAF are AAM- and SAM-ing it over the issue of the Iranian NP? ;-)

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