The never-ending (and very transparent) Big Game: Part 2

…having wasted the Part 1 to explain how well is everything developing along Israeli plan, and how anti-Semitic it is to think (or dare saying) anything else… well… let me continue - and see where is this leading.

Think I’ve ended the Part 1 with Iran’s targeting… yup: in this regards, there is a growing number of voices (all of them anti-Semites, of course), complaining about the IRGCASF’s ‘targeting list’. They’re stressing that this should hit more important places - like the chip-industry of Israel, for example.

I tend to lean in favour of those (all are anti-Semites, no doubt about this) who say that the IRGCASF has to target Israeli air bases more often. Nevatim in particular: it’s the home-base of the IASF’s F-35-fleet, and also that of its tanker-fleet. So, the idea is to keep it under pressure through ‘regular’ missile strikes, thus disrupting operations of the elements of the IASF enabling and leading air strikes on Iran. Might especially work with Israeli F-35s, because they can’t remain operational (as far as they have a fully operational rate higher than 50%, which is a rarity even in peace) without access to their full support infrastructure. Something similar is valid for the IASF’s fleet of seven Boeing 707 tankers: once on the ground, these take ‘hours’ to ‘turn around’: refuel, maintain and send back to the air.

Considering the scene showing an IASF Boeing 707 tanker in the process of landing at the Ben Gurion International (closed for civilian traffic since 13 June) during one of Iranian missile strikes on Nevatim, two nights ago, this appears as ‘on hand’ to do…

Me thinks: not only that Sayyari has his hands full with commanding and controlling the IRGC (and thus the IRGCASF), but the latter is likely to be in need of (re-)learning a few lessons through suffering unnecessary losses because it’s insistent on its PR-ops, for example. If not with learning how to operate as a professional military service. Arguably, the IRGC was widely declared ‘elite’ by Israel and in the West, but, when one busies him/herself with it for long enough, it’s obvious that it’s anything else than that.

Sure, the IRGC has studied, and continues studying, extensively, and intensively, both the Iran-Iraq War and Hezbollah’s experiences from Lebanon since the 1980s. However, not only is this war ‘something entirely different’ - this kind of war has never been fought before - but: gauging by the content of diverse of IRGC’s own publications (which include at least one of my books being translated to Farsi, with segments critical of the regime in Tehran ‘corrected’ to fit the official version) - the last 20 or so years, the IRGC was as busy with claiming all the possible achievements for itself, as with learning anything from past experiences.

Just for example: about a decade ago, the IRGC simply discredited about 50% of aerial victories credited to the IRIAF during the war with Iraq, and claimed these for itself, i.e. to its own officers and other ranks. So also an Iraqi MiG-25RB approaching the Khark Island in the northern Persian Gulf - shot down at the time and place (and by means) where there were zero IRGC units present (indeed, at the time the IRGC was still in the process of building-up its conventional warfare capability).

This is prompting the question: regardless how many of its higher-ranking officers are still around, with combat experience from different earlier wars (just for example; the IRGCASF is still including a number of versed veterans that used to operate MIM-23B I-HAWK SAMs and participated in often complex and long battles against the Iraqi air force and its electronic warfare in the 1980s): how much of their know-how is reaching the decision-making levels?

Here I tend to agree with those who are rather frustrated and saying, ‘they’re never going to learn anything’. Indeed, considering first-hand experiences with top IRGC chieftains declaring the majority of Iran’s own population for ‘clueless, illiterate sheep, who need to be controlled and guided’, this appears as ‘a matter of fact’.

Still…

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Netanyahu’s 3-Day Special Military Operation

Yes, the victorious IDF - and the IASF in particular - is Mobutu Sesse-Seko-ing Iran. Read: going from victory to victory, leaving a trail of fire in its wake… (that’s what Mobutu’s full name stood for), and everything is developing along the plan.

…down to a few bugs, of course…

For example: the fact that the total territory of Iran is something like three times the size of Ukraine. Indeed, that ‘just’ western Iran is the size of Ukraine - and then territory that’s characterised by long mountain chains.

Nevertheless, and although this area is some 1,100-1,200 kilometres away from Israel, and as widely published, already on 14 June, Israel officially declared itself in possession of Israel declared ‘aerial superiority’ over western Iran. It claims that its aircraft are moving freely between the border to Iraq and Tehran. As ‘evidence’ for this, one of Mossad’s teams then run that UAV-attack on the TFB.14 in Mashhad, in north-eastern Iran (2,300 kilometres far from Israel), to destroy one of IRIAF tanker aircraft…

Impressive, isn’t it?

Even more so when (not only) Ukrainian professional experts are emphasising out that the IASF’s total aerial superiority is ‘confirmed’ by its deployment of (relatively short-ranged) JDAM glide bombs to hit targets in Iran. Nevermind if these are used against targets in western Iran, only: like in the Kermanshah area - about 120km from the border to Iraq (pay attention at the JDAM visible in the upper right corner of the following still):

…where the principal target remains the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Aviation’s base, including such mortal anti-Semitist terrorist threats like this Bell AH-1J Cobra attack helicopter:

…while those in the Tehran area, for example, are targeted by (much) longer-ranged Spice 1000 and Ice Breakers:

But, that’s irrelevant. Probably anti-Semitic, too. Just like it’s irrelevant that nobody saw a single Israeli jet anywhere near Tehran Qom, Shiraz, or Esfahan in days. Rather Hermes 450s reconnaissance UAVs, like this one:

…or this Hermes 900 (equipped with pods for mini-PGMs), over Kermanshah:

…and this one over Tabriz:

…followed, shortly after, by an IRIAF F-4E - the first jet in this area sighted in days:

Certainly enough, the IASF is still launching long-range strikes inside Iran, too – but: only in form of carefully orchestrated strike packages, led by F-35s. Yesterday, one of these is known to have hit a number of targets in the Esfahan area, possibly including the TFB.8 – the main hub of IRIAF F-14-operations. In turn, Iranians claimed one of involved F-15s as shot down by an F-14. So far, found no evidence for this. Only a video showing a drop tank of an F-15, found by civilians well outside Esfahan:

…while this Hermes 900 must’ve converted to anti-Semitism before losing its way and getting shot down in the same area:

To make sure this was not a Hermes-like, Iran-made Shahed-129, but a genuine Hermes 900, here also one of its Mikholit mini-PGMs, found right next to its wreckage:

But no: the IRIAF was destroyed, the IASF rules, and that’s a matter of fact. Therefore, it’s foremost that itch in my small toe that’s reminding me of such ‘historic precedents’ for Israel’s PRBS-operations. Like the one in October 1973, when Israel rushed a battery of makeshift multiple rocket launchers to bombard ‘the general area of the western outskirts of Damascus’, and then claimed that it has the Syrian capital ‘within range of its artillery’ – a myth regularly repeated in all ‘scholar sources of reference’ until this very day, although complete nonsense…

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Iranian Air Defences

With the IRIAF completely obliterated, lets then waste a few lines on operations of the Iranian ground based air defences… where either Sayyari, or somebody else down the chain of command - might have figured out how to do that part of the business. Correspondingly, since 15 June the IRGCASF and the IRIADF have overcome the initial shock and started operating in a way that’s making sense. Instead of ‘merely’ trying to defend its IRBM-bases and/or nuclear facilities, they re-deployed some of their SAM-units closer to the border. These are also not ‘emitting all the time’ (with their radars) any more, but operating at random intervals. Two or three such units are meanwhile reporting the downing up to 40-50 Israeli UAVs and loitering precision gudied ammunition a day.

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Israeli Targeting List

As for Israeli targets in Iran: well, you know them all by heart, don’t you?

It’s Iran’s nuclear program. No, sorry: it’s Iran’s ballistic missiles. No, sorry: it’s Iranian political leadership, a ‘regime change’… No, sorry: it’s Iran’s oil industry. No, sorry, it’s Iran’s other military facilities… No, sorry: according to Israel’s Minister of Defence, Katz, it’s the population of Tehran.

Nah, sorry: he’s meanwhile withdrawn that statement…

Well, right now I cannot figure out any more what’s Israel’s ‘true’ intention - at least not beyond what I’ve mentioned in the Part 1: ‘finally’ and ‘officially’ converting the USA into its overseas subject, and the US armed forces into an extension of the Israeli Defence Force (IDF), so these could do the job Israel obviously can’t. Because, and just for example, the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility remains fully intact, regardless of several Israeli strikes on it. Sure, the power supply of the Natanz nuclear-enrichment facility has been destroyed. No surprise: this was constructed overground and thus (relatively) easy to knock out. And, no doubt: this is shutting the facility down, regardless if its underground compound was really destroyed (which I doubt), or if it was ‘just’ the entrances to the same. In grand total - and if we’re all the time paying attention about the Israeli PRBS, would it be too anti-Semitic to pay attention about Iranian PRBS(?) - the head of the Iran’s Atomic Organisation says, ‘the installations are fine’.

Guess, he considers smouldering wreckage atop of them for a decoration of sort…

Irrelevant, all of this. Instead, lets have a look at what have the Israelis really, really, really hit the last two or three days. For example: except for destroying a retailer selling dishwashers and washing machines in Esfahan (must be the Israelis were concerned the Iranians might take out chips from washing machines they’re manufacturing on their own, and sell them to Russia, eh…?), two days ago the IASF bombed this big complex of tunnels in the mountains north of Tehran.

Professional experts in the West are all describing it as IRGC base, but - except for explaining the obvious (see: security fence, tunnels, roads, yet more tunnels and roads…) - nobody can say what’s inside, nor how deep do the tunnels go… but hey: it was ‘destroyed’ by Israel, because it was bombed by the IASF. Everybody knows that and even having doubts about such claims is anti-Semitic.

In other cases, the IASF has successfully bombed lots of empty hangars all over Iran. Also killed yet another IRGC general, destroyed several TELs (total confirmed is now at around 15), few SAM-launchers, and one children hospital in Tehran. More serious were the last night’s strikes on the IRGC’s missile Hemmat Works in Khojir (eastern Tehran), and the Imam Hussein University (Tehran) - where one should keep in mind: since the last time the Israelis hit the Hemmat Works, the facility was not only completely repaired, and partially hardened, but the production of liquid fuels even increased…

With other words: the Israelis are bombing whatever they can reach. Though, by far not as ‘at will’ as they are bragging they can.

Meanwhile, on the ground, the IRGC and the Iranian police are running an outright ‘manhunt’ for Mossad teams that are operating UAVs and ATGMs, and positioning car bombs around Tehran. About a dozen of groups were caught meanwhile, indicating that the Israeli intelligence has ‘mobilised/recruited’ almost everbody it only could: Afghans (whether those from Afghanistan or those living as refugees in Iran), different Iranian nationals, but especially MEK/MKO terrorists: this is an Iranian leftist group at odds with Tehran since around 1981-1983. It is considered a terrorist organisation even by the USA, and widely despised in Iran – because it is not only based in Iraq, but used to support Iraq during the war in the 1980s. However, since the US invasion of that country in 2003, the MEK/MKO came under the US control, and now it seems to have put itself at Israel’s services.

In other cases, workshops for production of UAVs have been discovered, for example in Esfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad… with which I’m running out of space (i.e. this feature is getting ‘too long for email’)…

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Overall… and if you haven’t figured it out by now: as much as ‘fascinating’, even ‘spectacular’ when monitored from far away, wars are - generally - entirely pointless affairs, only causing death, damage and pain. This one is no exception. The affairs could’ve been nicely sorted through negotiations - if only all the involved parties would’ve been treated in exactly the same fashion.

Alas, they were not, and it’s obvious that there is no intention to do so any time in the future. That would be anti-Semitism, not along megalomaniac designs of certain terrorists of the mid-1940s, and not profitable enough for all the modern day’s 1%. Therefore, much more is to follow…