Hello everybody! The following is something like ‘in reaction to popular demand’. Namely, time and again during different media interviews, I’ve been asked how comes the ‘West can’t’ supply enough arms and ammunition to Ukraine. How comes even two years since Pudding’s all-out invasion, the West can’t even properly ramp-up its ammunition production?
Fully agree. You could not have been clearer or more blunt. The short-term and egoistic thinking of the oligarchy is the greatest danger facing the West, and the wider world. It endangers our security, it abandons Ukraine, it will make us fail to tackle climate change, it drives far right populism (often supported by this oligarchy as a way to keep its power) and it undermines all of our social foundations.
As long as you're an Ukrainian, and just sitting there and waiting for the USA (and/or EU) to help you: yes, you are.
Cash the financial aid (the EU can still consider itself happy to pay just for Ukraine's financial survival, instead of accepting 30+ million refugees), say thanks for financial aid - and then spend it for what really helps _Ukraine_, and not any kind of super-smart arseholes in the DC, Brüssel, Berlin, Paris or wherever else.
"The U.S. Army said last Thursday it was abandoning its development of a Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA), a next-generation scout helicopter, after some $2 billion had already been spent on the program. The Army said that after a "sober assessment of the modern battlefield" it would instead increase investment in unmanned aircraft."
Of course, such decisions can be reversed but I hope they will concentrate on innovation, low cost and mass production.
That's 'works as designed': another two billions (of taxpayer's money) spent to feed R+D departments of different major corporations. Oh, nothing happened. and that's it.
....now calculate how many FPV-drones could've been bought for these two billions? Or at least how many artillery shells calibre 155mm?
Hope this great article open eyes everywhere, what a great, concise and clear explanation. But, hey, Ukraine “is no longer headlines” (even Gaza start to be less and less on media, except to give it another support to the current story - Israel, angels; palestinian, terrorist). What our oligarchs want IS what become news.
"There is very little deliberate wickedness in the world. The stupidity of our selfishness gives much the same results indeed, but in the ethical laboratory it shows a different nature." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
Who said they are? Each of them is organised for him/her-self though, and 'supporting' this or that party, politican or whever is suitable. All with best intentions, and perfectly selflessly, of course...
The rich are organized around the idea that they got that way because of pure merit. That belief is all you need to spark self-organization in a group. They just happened to start the game with a leg up. Even the rare one who independently makes it always depends on other people at some point.
They are not organised as such. But the idea of maximising profit and all the B-schools and politicians agreeing works to create the situation Tom described.
If possible change always from materialism. Which I think is very difficult. I include myself as part of the difficult. Barring that, better democratic control.
There is no need for "proof" of rich being organized. (Although some would immediately point at the annual WEF and similar smaller events that rarely draw attention but have similarly exorbitant attendance fee.)
The broader view is that the "5000 or so" people share same goals and same methods (and that globally!) thus can reach consensus in pretty much every situation (except a fin crisis, when everybody's for themselves). Thus today they outmatch even states at the decision making and influence.
I cannot read this article, it seems that it requires subscription
One problem with printing plastics is that it's not easy to scale for mass production. Either you will have to invest in many printing machines (lots of capital and space required), or you will have to do injection molding. And that's not including the mass production of motherboards etc, which require a production line anyway (of course, you can outsource it elsewhere and do the integration on the factory)
Come on Tom, the EU is the empire of peace through economic prosperity. Everyone is indoctrinated eh knows that.
Look at your country Austria itself. It is now so much more economic capable that compared to those wicked times before hardly any taxes on capital are needed anymore to finance the state budget. Isn't that brilliance everyone would vote freely for?
I see no difference between the EU and the US. It is just more clearly visible in Austria regarding financing the state budget as we weren't in the EU 30 years ago.
I even see the EU as worse than the US as in the US more direct democracy is possible in comparison to the EU, where decision making positions are well shielded from electoral influence.
The production of drones for UA is also very important in the Czech Republic. Now, 10,000 FPVs are gradually being produced thanks to the support campaigns of public figures. But this group is much further. Of course, the use of 3D printing and own development, the result of which are several types of drones, currently also the Czech Baba Yaga. But also a necessary modification of commercial observation drones. The group works closely with ZSU and supplies drones directly to specific frontline units based on their own requirements. In addition to drones, they supply jammers, which it buys but also develops.
This remains one of the most politically, not just militarily, sophisticated blogs out there because of Tom's ability to field anti "Western" ideas without falling into the thought patterns of the "Putin Verstehers."
But is it really any surprise there are so many on the left and right who think, "why fight or support a war to save Ukraine from "System Putin" only to have it be a part of "System Bezos (et al.)" ?
My answer: figure out how to slay one monster, the solution to dealing with the next tends to emerge.
Does anyone really believe that the oligarchs can handle the democratization of warfare drones enable? Nobody is beating an insurgent group ever again if it has any resources.
When small bombs became a thing, anarchists started killing famous people. This can and probably will happen again. Which is why they're so terrified of that dude who tracks their jets on social media. It only takes one unabomber...
Two reasons. The first one is the one given by Andrew Tanner below, learn to stop Putin and you might learn to stop Bezos. The other is that, with all their faults, being rullede by the 5000 is better than being ruled by Putin. Because since profit is the only religion they dont care so much of other things like religion, sexuality etc. Aandstad also since they are 5000 and not 1 it is possible that they end up on different sides in some conflict. And if you compare how people live ruled by the 5000 and ruled by Putin, well enough live better under the 5000.
System Bezos doesn't send you to jail for having different opinions and it is not forcing you to comply. The standard of living in System Bezos is generally better for common people than in System Putin and it has always been like this. You can only check the development of the 2 German states after ww2. The same nation. Different systems. Which one would you prefer? I don't want to make a long post, but I have lived under both systems and my answer is that we can only try to improve system Bezos.
Valid points. But our system's not improving at all. It's rapidly degenerating to the point where the best which can seemingly said about it is, it's not (yet) as bad living in China or Russia.
Then there's also the question of historical trajectories. It wasn't Communist nor Putinist ideology which suddenly made Russia autocratic. It was the last country in Europe to abolish serfdom by a long way. So there isn't necessarily any abstract choice between these two systems. No leader or doctrine could transform Russia into Switzerland or vice versa. (A point which is consistently under-appreciated in "liberal internationalist" discourse actually.)
This is true. But I was not referring to Russia, I was referring to Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. The post-communist evolution was way better than communism on all levels. And maybe even in Russia or China or Arab countries the issue is not the people, but their leaders. It is easier to rule by force and they want to maintain that to stay in power as long as possible. Propaganda didn't change much in 30 years. India for instance is democratic - maybe because of British influence, but also because of their leaders. Regarding our system, we are at a turning point indeed, probably because we don't find leaders anymore. Look at the USA, how come they are blocked between Trump and Biden? No one else gets a chance? And perhaps Trump wants to change the Constitution like Putin, to may be reelected as long as he desires...
I don't know how it was in the West 35 years ago, but here (Romania) during communism we had to endure a lot of (bad) things "for the greater good" and for the fight against "the imperialistic capitalism". More or less what Putin says now. Thank god my country has changed. It's not perfect but can be improved. How? The discussion is long. We will get there? It's up to us.
He's a social scientist, founder of Cliodynamics, focuses on analysis of complex systems. His conclusion was that the US (i.e., not necessarily the whole West) is technically a plutocracy, not an oligarchy. Close enough, I think.
Btw, one thing I'm seeing more and more often is that non-mainstream Left (like Turchin and possibly you?) and non-mainstream Right (like right-wing libertarians, some in the MAGA wing of GOP, etc.) often tend to agree on the diagnosis of the situation and description of the problems the West suffers from. However, they disagree on solutions, what to do about it.
Up front: don't know why should I be 'left' - or 'right', or 'centre' or anything at all, actually?
Why do I have to be put - or put myself - into one or another 'box', depending on its colour?
Am I not free to think on my own? Am I prohibited from drawing my own conclusions without reading any kind of theoreticians, ideologists, people with agendas etc.? Perhaps because my conclusions might hurt somebody's politics-related opinions?
It's for years/elections already, I do not go to vote, because there's nothing to vote for.
Of course it has, but effecting one is extremely hard - because all the parties think, essentially, the same.
The system here is best-summarised by a member of the former Kurz-cabinet (BTW, Kurz is nowadays working for Google). HIs smartphone containted text messages to other members of the cabinet, including such like:
- 'Mind, now that you're a member of the cabinet, you're the whore of the rich', and
- 'He/she who pays (more into our pockets; my note), rules'.
Of course, one could say 'but, that's the highest level, it's entirely different at the local level', or 'but, that's the conservative party, and they're stumbling from one scandal into another, for 20 years already', and 'it's different in other countries'.
Big problem with Turchin is that he uses historical data in a dangerously naive way. It's a good effort to use complex systems theory that fails to build up a working theory from first principles.
I've always wanted the money to fix what he got wrong, but I'm well out of the academia game.
You are spot on correct. During academia I got kind of obsessed with building a systems theory paradigm capable of describing this dynamic. Crazy? Sure. But the dark secret is that it isn't difficult to describe why the kleptocratic oligarchy emerges and sustains itself... until it can't anymore.
Trick is to plug cybernetic communications, nested complex adaptive cycles, and agent-based modeling together. But you have to assume social relativity - a world defined by groups with their own self-sustaining internal reality. You can't shout FACTS! TRUTH! and subordinate all perspectives - they always compete over time.
I've only got it in heurestic/diagram form - American PhD programs DO NOT allow for real academic freedom, having become nothing more than a secular priesthood positing only one correct way to do science. They worship a few variables invested with sacral power that ignores the nuances in things like GDP/c.
But in general, plug a vaguely Marxist/Buddhist philosophical stance and von Bertalanffy/Luhmann flavor fo systems theory, and stuff starts making sense in a way the right software could illustrate. The oligarchy sustains itself by draining wealth from whatever victim it can find. The only way to kill the beast is to treat it like the cancer it is and stop feeding it. Build alternatives.
The threat of this is why D.C. is afraid of letting Ukraine win. America's self-induced apocalypse (Ragnarok) is near. That should shock Europe into taking action in the interests of self-preservation.
Sorry I ever criticized your writing on Medium. Totally misunderstood you. Of course that site is trash...
So, who wants to build a global democratic defense force with its own industrial base? :D
Sounds like traditional Marxism plus algorithmic social network analysis (the latter in the sense of doing to the plutocrats what is currently done by the plutocrats to everyone else.)
"The threat of this is why D.C. is afraid of letting Ukraine win."
In other words, the ongoing conflict is a sump for the Western military industrial complex? Fascinating that we are shading here into the talking points of the anti-Zelenskiy left.
My great philosophical problem with Putin is that he's a post-Marxist leader who appeals to a disillusionment with capitalism, while at the same time being nothing more than a gangster and a spy, a concentrated node of the problem to which he presents himself as a spurious alternative.
An important and erudite summary although I fear you are preaching to the converted!
Your point about how impending risk motivates Ukraines investment into its own national infrastructure is important. In the US, much of the aid offered is spent in US states propping up their arms industry. In the UK, as in much of Europe, the depletion of critical industries such as steel or manufacturing for Asian products means that we will struggle, as you write, to restart meaningful production.
I do wonder though if other states under threat, like Finland, Poland, Estonia, etc, may take the opportunity to build their own up and offer a longer term solution.
This will likely further reduce the military importance of the traditional, G7 states but could offer a Western arms industry that is no longer reliant on US investment or political interest.
Fully agree. You could not have been clearer or more blunt. The short-term and egoistic thinking of the oligarchy is the greatest danger facing the West, and the wider world. It endangers our security, it abandons Ukraine, it will make us fail to tackle climate change, it drives far right populism (often supported by this oligarchy as a way to keep its power) and it undermines all of our social foundations.
so we are pretty much fucked without US?
Yes, but in a scenario we are currently in, not even that is helping.
As long as you're an Ukrainian, and just sitting there and waiting for the USA (and/or EU) to help you: yes, you are.
Cash the financial aid (the EU can still consider itself happy to pay just for Ukraine's financial survival, instead of accepting 30+ million refugees), say thanks for financial aid - and then spend it for what really helps _Ukraine_, and not any kind of super-smart arseholes in the DC, Brüssel, Berlin, Paris or wherever else.
That is why the Ukrainian government tries to establish défense industries on its own territory.
Forget the USA. That's the key. Out-compete this poor dying country and replace it with a real democratic alliance.
Well, Trump is a wake up call indeed.
Yes, we need alliance in Europe.
One glimmer of hope
"The U.S. Army said last Thursday it was abandoning its development of a Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA), a next-generation scout helicopter, after some $2 billion had already been spent on the program. The Army said that after a "sober assessment of the modern battlefield" it would instead increase investment in unmanned aircraft."
Of course, such decisions can be reversed but I hope they will concentrate on innovation, low cost and mass production.
More detail here https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/army-cancels-fara-helicopter-program-makes-other-cuts-in-major-aviation-shakeup/
That's 'works as designed': another two billions (of taxpayer's money) spent to feed R+D departments of different major corporations. Oh, nothing happened. and that's it.
....now calculate how many FPV-drones could've been bought for these two billions? Or at least how many artillery shells calibre 155mm?
Hope this great article open eyes everywhere, what a great, concise and clear explanation. But, hey, Ukraine “is no longer headlines” (even Gaza start to be less and less on media, except to give it another support to the current story - Israel, angels; palestinian, terrorist). What our oligarchs want IS what become news.
Brave New World (or not so new, methinks)
Sadly it won't reach enough people.
You’re right. Sadly.
There is no proof that the rich are organized:
"There is very little deliberate wickedness in the world. The stupidity of our selfishness gives much the same results indeed, but in the ethical laboratory it shows a different nature." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
Who said they are? Each of them is organised for him/her-self though, and 'supporting' this or that party, politican or whever is suitable. All with best intentions, and perfectly selflessly, of course...
The rich are organized around the idea that they got that way because of pure merit. That belief is all you need to spark self-organization in a group. They just happened to start the game with a leg up. Even the rare one who independently makes it always depends on other people at some point.
They are not organised as such. But the idea of maximising profit and all the B-schools and politicians agreeing works to create the situation Tom described.
What other options are possible for a society with materialism for religion?
If possible change always from materialism. Which I think is very difficult. I include myself as part of the difficult. Barring that, better democratic control.
There is no need for "proof" of rich being organized. (Although some would immediately point at the annual WEF and similar smaller events that rarely draw attention but have similarly exorbitant attendance fee.)
The broader view is that the "5000 or so" people share same goals and same methods (and that globally!) thus can reach consensus in pretty much every situation (except a fin crisis, when everybody's for themselves). Thus today they outmatch even states at the decision making and influence.
Well, funny you should mention Eric Schmidt since he hasn't stopped on words only. So there's at least this member of the infamous oligarchy doing something and via his family foundation. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahemerson/2024/01/23/eric-schmidts-secret-white-stork-project-aims-to-build-ai-combat-drones/
We'll see...
I cannot read this article, it seems that it requires subscription
One problem with printing plastics is that it's not easy to scale for mass production. Either you will have to invest in many printing machines (lots of capital and space required), or you will have to do injection molding. And that's not including the mass production of motherboards etc, which require a production line anyway (of course, you can outsource it elsewhere and do the integration on the factory)
Sorry, it opens fine for me, so thought there's no paywall. Here it is in full, but they don't address issues you mentioned: https://archive.is/Hj5no
Come on Tom, the EU is the empire of peace through economic prosperity. Everyone is indoctrinated eh knows that.
Look at your country Austria itself. It is now so much more economic capable that compared to those wicked times before hardly any taxes on capital are needed anymore to finance the state budget. Isn't that brilliance everyone would vote freely for?
Did I say the EU is better? The USA are simply a better example - since much bigger and more influential - than 10-15 different examples from the EU.
....and Austria is well-known as the most politically-corrupt member of the EU (yes, ahead 'even' of Bulgaria and Romania).
Is that making anything about the USA better?
I see no difference between the EU and the US. It is just more clearly visible in Austria regarding financing the state budget as we weren't in the EU 30 years ago.
I even see the EU as worse than the US as in the US more direct democracy is possible in comparison to the EU, where decision making positions are well shielded from electoral influence.
Please, don't start me with 'they in the Brüssels', though: it's exactly the same jerks like at home.
Of course they are, but the jerks at home we elect. Doesn't make it much better though.
'We' have elected the jerks in Brüssel too - through electing jerks at home.
It is rather that we put our incompetent one there into pension.
The production of drones for UA is also very important in the Czech Republic. Now, 10,000 FPVs are gradually being produced thanks to the support campaigns of public figures. But this group is much further. Of course, the use of 3D printing and own development, the result of which are several types of drones, currently also the Czech Baba Yaga. But also a necessary modification of commercial observation drones. The group works closely with ZSU and supplies drones directly to specific frontline units based on their own requirements. In addition to drones, they supply jammers, which it buys but also develops.
This remains one of the most politically, not just militarily, sophisticated blogs out there because of Tom's ability to field anti "Western" ideas without falling into the thought patterns of the "Putin Verstehers."
But is it really any surprise there are so many on the left and right who think, "why fight or support a war to save Ukraine from "System Putin" only to have it be a part of "System Bezos (et al.)" ?
The next 'Trillion Dollar Question'...
My answer: figure out how to slay one monster, the solution to dealing with the next tends to emerge.
Does anyone really believe that the oligarchs can handle the democratization of warfare drones enable? Nobody is beating an insurgent group ever again if it has any resources.
When small bombs became a thing, anarchists started killing famous people. This can and probably will happen again. Which is why they're so terrified of that dude who tracks their jets on social media. It only takes one unabomber...
Two reasons. The first one is the one given by Andrew Tanner below, learn to stop Putin and you might learn to stop Bezos. The other is that, with all their faults, being rullede by the 5000 is better than being ruled by Putin. Because since profit is the only religion they dont care so much of other things like religion, sexuality etc. Aandstad also since they are 5000 and not 1 it is possible that they end up on different sides in some conflict. And if you compare how people live ruled by the 5000 and ruled by Putin, well enough live better under the 5000.
Indeed: they're all the time at odds with each other...
System Bezos doesn't send you to jail for having different opinions and it is not forcing you to comply. The standard of living in System Bezos is generally better for common people than in System Putin and it has always been like this. You can only check the development of the 2 German states after ww2. The same nation. Different systems. Which one would you prefer? I don't want to make a long post, but I have lived under both systems and my answer is that we can only try to improve system Bezos.
Valid points. But our system's not improving at all. It's rapidly degenerating to the point where the best which can seemingly said about it is, it's not (yet) as bad living in China or Russia.
Then there's also the question of historical trajectories. It wasn't Communist nor Putinist ideology which suddenly made Russia autocratic. It was the last country in Europe to abolish serfdom by a long way. So there isn't necessarily any abstract choice between these two systems. No leader or doctrine could transform Russia into Switzerland or vice versa. (A point which is consistently under-appreciated in "liberal internationalist" discourse actually.)
This is true. But I was not referring to Russia, I was referring to Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. The post-communist evolution was way better than communism on all levels. And maybe even in Russia or China or Arab countries the issue is not the people, but their leaders. It is easier to rule by force and they want to maintain that to stay in power as long as possible. Propaganda didn't change much in 30 years. India for instance is democratic - maybe because of British influence, but also because of their leaders. Regarding our system, we are at a turning point indeed, probably because we don't find leaders anymore. Look at the USA, how come they are blocked between Trump and Biden? No one else gets a chance? And perhaps Trump wants to change the Constitution like Putin, to may be reelected as long as he desires...
I don't know how it was in the West 35 years ago, but here (Romania) during communism we had to endure a lot of (bad) things "for the greater good" and for the fight against "the imperialistic capitalism". More or less what Putin says now. Thank god my country has changed. It's not perfect but can be improved. How? The discussion is long. We will get there? It's up to us.
Have you read some of Peter Turchin's books? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin
He's a social scientist, founder of Cliodynamics, focuses on analysis of complex systems. His conclusion was that the US (i.e., not necessarily the whole West) is technically a plutocracy, not an oligarchy. Close enough, I think.
Btw, one thing I'm seeing more and more often is that non-mainstream Left (like Turchin and possibly you?) and non-mainstream Right (like right-wing libertarians, some in the MAGA wing of GOP, etc.) often tend to agree on the diagnosis of the situation and description of the problems the West suffers from. However, they disagree on solutions, what to do about it.
Up front: don't know why should I be 'left' - or 'right', or 'centre' or anything at all, actually?
Why do I have to be put - or put myself - into one or another 'box', depending on its colour?
Am I not free to think on my own? Am I prohibited from drawing my own conclusions without reading any kind of theoreticians, ideologists, people with agendas etc.? Perhaps because my conclusions might hurt somebody's politics-related opinions?
It's for years/elections already, I do not go to vote, because there's nothing to vote for.
Ok, understand your position. Thanks 👍
Austria has a No Confidence vote? Or some fringe parties that fight the system? By not voting, aren't we telling the Oligarchs that they've won?
Of course it has, but effecting one is extremely hard - because all the parties think, essentially, the same.
The system here is best-summarised by a member of the former Kurz-cabinet (BTW, Kurz is nowadays working for Google). HIs smartphone containted text messages to other members of the cabinet, including such like:
- 'Mind, now that you're a member of the cabinet, you're the whore of the rich', and
- 'He/she who pays (more into our pockets; my note), rules'.
Of course, one could say 'but, that's the highest level, it's entirely different at the local level', or 'but, that's the conservative party, and they're stumbling from one scandal into another, for 20 years already', and 'it's different in other countries'.
Nope, it's not.
Big problem with Turchin is that he uses historical data in a dangerously naive way. It's a good effort to use complex systems theory that fails to build up a working theory from first principles.
I've always wanted the money to fix what he got wrong, but I'm well out of the academia game.
You find the same sort of fools Among far left and far right and often they have similar ideas.
Thanks Tom, Great photo taken from reality!
Ukraine was nothing to the West but a tool to be discarded when no longer useful.
Money makes the world go around.
Are you using Russian gas for heating Tom ?
https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/12/austria-imports-of-russian-gas-hit-pre-war-levels-exceeding-
aid-to-ukraine
Heating? Nope: locally grown and chopped wood.
And yes, I know what is Austria doing with the Russian gas and how long. Check related posts on my Facebook account.
An excellent read Tom, thank you very much.
You are spot on correct. During academia I got kind of obsessed with building a systems theory paradigm capable of describing this dynamic. Crazy? Sure. But the dark secret is that it isn't difficult to describe why the kleptocratic oligarchy emerges and sustains itself... until it can't anymore.
Trick is to plug cybernetic communications, nested complex adaptive cycles, and agent-based modeling together. But you have to assume social relativity - a world defined by groups with their own self-sustaining internal reality. You can't shout FACTS! TRUTH! and subordinate all perspectives - they always compete over time.
I've only got it in heurestic/diagram form - American PhD programs DO NOT allow for real academic freedom, having become nothing more than a secular priesthood positing only one correct way to do science. They worship a few variables invested with sacral power that ignores the nuances in things like GDP/c.
But in general, plug a vaguely Marxist/Buddhist philosophical stance and von Bertalanffy/Luhmann flavor fo systems theory, and stuff starts making sense in a way the right software could illustrate. The oligarchy sustains itself by draining wealth from whatever victim it can find. The only way to kill the beast is to treat it like the cancer it is and stop feeding it. Build alternatives.
The threat of this is why D.C. is afraid of letting Ukraine win. America's self-induced apocalypse (Ragnarok) is near. That should shock Europe into taking action in the interests of self-preservation.
Sorry I ever criticized your writing on Medium. Totally misunderstood you. Of course that site is trash...
So, who wants to build a global democratic defense force with its own industrial base? :D
What do you mean under "cybernetic communications"?
Which agents framework was used?
Sounds like traditional Marxism plus algorithmic social network analysis (the latter in the sense of doing to the plutocrats what is currently done by the plutocrats to everyone else.)
"The threat of this is why D.C. is afraid of letting Ukraine win."
In other words, the ongoing conflict is a sump for the Western military industrial complex? Fascinating that we are shading here into the talking points of the anti-Zelenskiy left.
My great philosophical problem with Putin is that he's a post-Marxist leader who appeals to a disillusionment with capitalism, while at the same time being nothing more than a gangster and a spy, a concentrated node of the problem to which he presents himself as a spurious alternative.
An important and erudite summary although I fear you are preaching to the converted!
Your point about how impending risk motivates Ukraines investment into its own national infrastructure is important. In the US, much of the aid offered is spent in US states propping up their arms industry. In the UK, as in much of Europe, the depletion of critical industries such as steel or manufacturing for Asian products means that we will struggle, as you write, to restart meaningful production.
I do wonder though if other states under threat, like Finland, Poland, Estonia, etc, may take the opportunity to build their own up and offer a longer term solution.
This will likely further reduce the military importance of the traditional, G7 states but could offer a Western arms industry that is no longer reliant on US investment or political interest.
Very well written.