Hello everybody!
The following is something like ‘in reaction to popular demand’.
Namely, time and again during different media interviews, I’ve been asked how comes the ‘West can’t’ supply enough arms and ammunition to Ukraine. How comes even two years since Pudding’s all-out invasion, the West can’t even properly ramp-up its ammunition production?
The way I think about the answers, trying to explain that in a TV-interview is hopeless. Sure, one can attempt, and one can resume the following ‘in 30 seconds’, but it’s not really going to work. For numerous reasons - one of which is that the written word is much easier to memorise. Thus, let me try it in the way in which (I think) I’m better.
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So, why can’t the West work-up its military industry and manufacture armament and – especially – munition Ukraine needs?
That’s, literally, a ‘Trillion-Dollar Question’. And the answer is at least as funny as damn and ironic: indeed, near certain to draw at last accusations of ‘leftism’ if not ‘Marxism’ and whatever else, even if containing nothing else but a series of cold facts.
The starting point is that the modern-day Western societies are dominated by a small group – perhaps 5,000 people in total – of ultra-wealthy individuals. They wield immense power and influence over our political and economic systems.
Some call them ‘elite’, others ‘deep state’ and whatever else. I call them what they are: ‘oligarchy’.
…and that is so because the core definition of oligarchy is ‘rule by few’.
Over the last 40+ years, and through subverting our democracies with help of extensive political bribery, our oligarchs have adapted the entire political system to what fits them, these ’5,000 or so’: resulting legislations are making it easy for them to exploit huge loopholes in the law, run extensive tax evasion schemes, and/or enrich themselves through outright money laundering of taxpayer’s money into their pockets.
Essentially, they’ve converted democracies to kleptocracies.
Essentially, this small group of people is controlling the majority of the World’s resources, all the major economies, and the media. This is enabling them to shape the public opinion and manipulate governments to serve their own interests. The crucial interests of the people in question is profit: this is so important, that they’ve – indirectly, of course; through our politicians/political parties and the legislations these are ‘producing’ – declared the profit (their own profit, first and foremost, of course) a matter of higher national interest. Correspondingly, ‘economy’ has largely supplanted any other sorts of ideologies and religions.
So much so that nowadays there’s actually a minimal difference between principal, ‘mainstream’ political parties, regardless what political spectrum they claim to represent: whether ‘left-wing’ or ‘right-wing’, they all first care about ‘economy’ - read: securing profit through maintaining the status quo.
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Meanwhile, and since ‘winning’ the Cold War, the West – inclusive the USA – largely disarmed. Back then in the 1990s (so much so, the mass of what is the West supplying to Ukrainie, the last two years, is still from the same stock): there was plentiful of arms and new ones were considered unnecessary. Arguably, the USA did not disarm as massively as Europe, but still: like the rest of the Western industry, most of production was outsourced. First to eastern Europe, and then to Asia. Instead, the West retained only the for-profit military industrial core: this focused entirely on maximising profits through slow production of very few, very high-cost systems. Not only that large-scale production was completely eliminated, but even production of assemblies and parts for these high-cost systems were outsourced. This went so far that by the mid-2010s, even such sensitive parts for aircraft carriers of the US Navy, and Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets fighter-bombers - like chips - were made in the People’s Republic of China (PRC): because the PRC was delivering these at such low prices that it was more profitable to use chips from the PRC than those made at home.
All in the interests of ‘profit’.
Now, practices of this kind were perfectly enough to sustain different ‘small’ wars fought during the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s: indeed, the defence sector was living a luxurious life from such small wars – if for no other reason then because another such war was fought every two-to-five years, and thus our governments ‘still had to’ place new orders to re-stock, time and again. Then came several bigger wars – see: Afghanistan, Iraq, Maghreb – but these only secured even more handsome profits for the defence sector over decades. Everything was fine. Puding’s original invasion of Ukraine, back in 2014, changed nothing at all, and there was no interest to change anything about this: profits from outsourcing production to the PRC while selling the know-how and high-cost products there - and to Russia - were more important.
Profit remains dominant. Indeed, the mentality of extracting profit, regardless the consequences is so dominant that it doesn’t matter even when such ‘official’ oligarchs like Putin are directly threatening the West. It is so overpowering that it’s dictating the West’s behaviour in regards of Ukraine since February 2022, too. As result, our governments are completely paralysed: they can’t bring such – relatively – simple, and obviously logical, decisions like to massively expand production of arms and ammunition.
And even if they could… well, then mind: theoretically, this is simple undertaking – all provided our glorious oligarchy, politicians it controls, and what’s left of our technocrats still know how to do it (arguably: that’s anything else than certain). Sure, it would require a huge investment to re-launch production of any kind of major, ‘classic’, heavy weapons systems in significant numbers. But, it’s doable. Fact is: constructing production facilities is easy. Takes between few weeks and few months.
However…
Large segments of arms industry can still not be automatized (if they could be automatized, have no doubt: they would already be automatized). This in turn means that the development of such industry would also require the training of the necessary workforce. Means: a build-up of our defence sector would require the creation of an education system capable of supplying the necessary human resources – and that both in a matter of months and then for years in advance.
However, after decades of diligently degenerating our educational systems, our oligarchy is not the least keen on improving it now.
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Another crucial issue is that the industrial build-up of this kind would require something like the ‘subordination’ of the profit to the purpose. With other words: creation of major enterprises where profit is not as important as the product (and then the product in huge numbers).
Obvious conclusion is that such enterprises would have to be state-owned.
Blasphemy!
That is an absolute ‘no-no’ in our ‘free market economies’: alone any ‘loud thinking’ about ‘state-owned solutions’ is certain to prompt all sorts of complaints about ‘challenges’, ‘bureaucracy’, ‘inefficiency’, left-wingerism, socialism, communism, Marxism…
….as if bureaucracy and inefficiency are ‘reserved solely for state-owned enterprises’!??
Haha! Have worked for both and thus can only laugh: have seen far more of incompetence, corruption, nepotism, and all sorts of intrigues and malversations in privately-owned corporations than in state-owned enterprises.
But, of course, ‘this doesn’t matter’. It’s only the state-owned enterprises that are ‘bad’, you know…
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And so, we have our privately-owned ‘free’ market economies in the West. Where, actually, these economies are ‘free’ only for those who are dominating them: just see what kind of obstacles are any kind of start-ups facing – alone because of all the possible laws and regulations imposed by politicians on behalf of the existing oligarchy. And not to talk about intentional destruction of highly-promising, innovative start-ups in interest of the profit…
Instead, over the last 30 years, and all in the name of profit, our ‘free’ market economies have excelled in ‘outsourcing’ even such crucial sectors like water-supply, energy, public transportation, and post/mail – from the state to the private sector. Result: there is no way the ‘5,000 or so’ (read: ‘private sector’) might let this change, give up any of the control they exercise. They’re not going to give up their control over any other aspects of public life, either. Therefore, there is no way the private sector would do anything like invest massively into re-building production facilities and the education system: the private sector must extract the maximum profit within the shortest period of time to satisfy its investors and shareholders. Therefore, and if at all, the private sector is only ready to ‘invest’ huge amounts of money into bribing politicians into maintaining the status quo and administering in interest of its profit.
….which would be just the start, because the build-up of new arms industry in the West would also require the supply of raw materials and components of the kind of which there is not enough supply on the free market. Means: the development of such industry would require the build up of support industries… and then the people employed in all such industries would have to be properly paid, to ensure an uninterrupted flow, too…
….yet another blasphemy!
In the World (see: West) where CEO-wages increased by 1,500% (plus) since the mid-1990s, while those of workers (still) employed in production remained exactly the same over the last 30 years (i.e. the wages of the latter were merely adapted to inflation rates), and where the politics did everything in its powers to lower the taxation of the rich, while increasing that of everybody else, there is absolutely no economic- (i.e. commercial), and thus no trace of political interest in doing something of that kind. Political priority remains the maintenance of the status quo: keeping things the way they are, and extracting profits for the ‘5,000 or so’.
As a result, even if (partially) eager to do so (because it would offer quite some outlooks for profit), the West ‘can’t’ ramp up its production of arms and ammunition, and Ukraine simply cannot secure any kind of additional ammunition supplies.
Except Ukraine - or somebody else, curious to help Ukraine - acts on its/his/her own.
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Precisely this is likely to be the only hope left. Namely, Ukraine is enjoying a significant advantage over the West. Because it is exposed to a direct, indisputable threat for its very existence, it is also forced to act, to reform, and to innovate. It is forced to find the way to shift the narrative away from profit and greed, to promotion of cooperation over competition.
Ironically, there are already initiatives in the right direction. For example, and as everybody knows, the Ukrainian ‘do-it-yourself’ drone production ‘in garage labs’ is gaining pace. There are similar alternatives abroad, ranging from the ‘Make Drones not War’ in Poland, via the Threod System’s development of low-cost drones in Estonia to few others, so also in the USA… however, in grand total, and in comparison to the Russian efforts in this field, this is still too little.
Indeed, all the possible ‘major players’ in the defence sector – giant corporations employing dozens- and hundreds of thousands, and that could switch over to ‘printing’ mini-UAVs in millions – are all holding back and doing nothing. Because this way of running business is against their core interest. Which is why when Eric Schmidt, former CEO of the Google, proposed using 3D printing technology to mass produce drones and other weapons for Ukraine, and the use of artificial intelligence to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of such weapons – there were, PROMPTLY, loots of negative reactions in the social media. Just like, already few years ago, when there were attempts to reform the Pentagon into searching for such and similar solutions – simple, cheaper weapons systems – all such efforts were promptly spoiled, and their proponents intrigued out of the service.
All in the interest of maintaining the status quo, and securing the profit.
Of course: nobody said all such ideas are perfect, or they are the only solutions. Even less so they are the perfect solutions (especially when humans start misusing artificial intelligence to mass-murder other humans: see what the IDF is doing in the Gaza Strip the last four months). BUT: the actual reason for such initiatives receiving so much bad press is that they are jeopardising the status quo in favour of the ‘5,000 or so’ (and entire hordes of their fans).
With other words: the Empire of Profit is striking back, mercilessly and without any kind of ethical concerns - at anybody who is just thinking about resisting, or proposing meaningful changes, and that regardless the consequences.
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Ah well… but OK. Hope dies the last, as they say, and thus: you and me can at least hope that such blasphemies, such ‘Ukrainian examples’ might, potentially, lead to (sweeping) positive changes in our economy and society, too.
Fully agree. You could not have been clearer or more blunt. The short-term and egoistic thinking of the oligarchy is the greatest danger facing the West, and the wider world. It endangers our security, it abandons Ukraine, it will make us fail to tackle climate change, it drives far right populism (often supported by this oligarchy as a way to keep its power) and it undermines all of our social foundations.
The production of drones for UA is also very important in the Czech Republic. Now, 10,000 FPVs are gradually being produced thanks to the support campaigns of public figures. But this group is much further. Of course, the use of 3D printing and own development, the result of which are several types of drones, currently also the Czech Baba Yaga. But also a necessary modification of commercial observation drones. The group works closely with ZSU and supplies drones directly to specific frontline units based on their own requirements. In addition to drones, they supply jammers, which it buys but also develops.