No. Not at all hyperbolic. Simple statement of fact.
At this point it seems the States of America will never again be United, and the republic is unlikely to survive the Musk oligarchy in any recognisable form.
When cash controls all three branches of government there are neither checks nor balances, and the whole working concept of the constitution is gone.
Of course it may well turn out to be a greater calamity for the American people than 1861, and could easily be worse for the world than 1939.
I think you're just upset that the USA is threatening to not fund your favorite proxy war(s). There are huge problems, like the $36 trillion in debt and fentanyl flowing across the border, but those were problems before Trump was elected.
More of this! From early in the war I noticed that even the smallest bum-fuck bunker in Ukraine had some sort of computer. Now it's many computers and electronic devices. The other thing I noticed early on is how Ukrainians would tinker with every thing they could find. Old car, old heavy machine gun--some Ukrainian will make a happy marriage of the two.
I'll keep saying it, the "competency" of Ukrainian tinkerers is a serious equalizer to Russian military doctrine. I bet most Russian new tech is from China or North Korea--Asians. However, the Asians will sell to Ukraine too so I believe innovation will continue from the Ukrainian side first.
Trump is a bump in the road, using Ukraine as an attack vector on Biden and the woke party. All domestic politics. It will pass.
"Trump is a bump in the road, using Ukraine as an attack vector on Biden and the woke party. All domestic politics. It will pass."
I perceive that you are more positive about the situation than I am. I never before realized how fragile the American version of a representative gov't or a democratic republic is. It relies in part on a gentleman's agreement that, wrt the Presidency, the losing side acknowledges defeat, congratulates the winner, and at least by reference or implication asserts his (soon to be her?) support for the new, incoming president.
Nixon acknowledged defeat and refused to challenge the vote in 1960 even though there was some credible evidence in Illinois (Chicago in particular IIRC) of the vote being contaminated by corruption. Al Gore also failed to cause more trouble during the "hanging Chad" fiasco in Florida during the Presidential election of 2000. The national popular vote resulted in a whisper-thin difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates. The SCOTUS ruled in George W. Bush's favor. The vote among the SCOTUS Justices interestingly was cast on party lines (party membership). Gore let it go after that, as he should have for the good of the country.
Of course in 2020, you know whom challenged the presidential election, called it the Big STEAL, and it lead to anything but gentlemanly behavior. American democratic processes and institutions were demonstrated clearly to be fragile.
Something legal or Constitutional must be done about this. We don't have a parliamentary system wherein a no-confidence vote can change things. We only have elections and the onerously political impeachment/Senate trial process that creates political havoc across the nation.
Europe has all those things and I'm not sure in the end they end up in a better place? National security isn't, at its core, political. Maybe I'm wrong, having never worked in it or even close to it. For many reasons I didn't believe Biden should have sent weapons to Israel. But he did. I believe because those in U.S. national security told him to. The President is 4 years. National Security is timeless. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt much has changed. The news that the CIA was told to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine is for domestic consumption. National Security has to manage all Presidents and they're all focused on domestic issues.
Ukraine is too big for Russia to back out of and it's too big for the U.S. to take a Loss on. I'm sure after that meeting with Trump Zelensky's national security guys talked to the U.S. security guys and assurances were made that nothing fundamentally is going to change. Yes, the President can speed up or slow down weapons, but I don't believe he can change U.S. national security policy.
Or perhaps the U.S. wants to battle China and need Russia on its side? If that's the case then I can't see Trump being able to help with that. He's a moron surrounded by morons. Russia is now depleted.
This armchair general would rather fight with Ukrainians, against U.S. adversaries, for the reasons mentioned in this article, than the Russians who no longer have much to fight with.
And Trump does a good thing, though not his intent, he forces people to renew and strengthen their positions. After his BS in the White House I sent more to Ukraine.
Re: Trump doing a good thing ... a stopped watch is correct twice a day!
Trump can do a lot of damage as President. He already has. Our relationship with Canada, for example, may be repairable somewhat--something like an adulterous spouse repenting and then being forgiven by the offended spouse--but relations will never be the same as before. Ditto re: the Europeans.
I also see the toxic relationship of the Republican Party and Trump leading to the destruction of the Republican Party, the effects of which could be very damaging to the United States' body politic. I suppose we will just have to wait and see ....
And Trump's behavior and actions toward Ukraine plus his sucking up to Putin could end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Ukraine. Perhaps the Europeans (less Hungary and Slovakia, for example) will "finally" unite and keep Ukraine afloat. Again, we will just have to wait and see what happens.
I didn't say those National Security types are smart ;) They agree with Trump on one thing, the U.S. doesn't need anyone. Not all of them, of course. Our relationship to Canada and Mexico aren't on their radar. The European thing is different so I wouldn't be surprised if they take Trump out. Or send a message the likes of what Ross Perot was sent ;) Trump blind-sided everyone last week. I don't want to write it here but you can probably guess what I believe will happen to him (or JD Vance) if he doesn't change course about certain national security interests.
Unless those interests favor Russia. I'd need to hear that argument.
Disagree. Trump is firing the national security guys and replacing them with pro-Putin lackeys. Cutting off intelligence sharing is not for domestic political purposes, it was barely mentioned in the press. The great majority of people aren’t even aware it happened. It was to hurt Ukraine and aid Putin.
In addition Europe should learn that the same could happen to them, most likely at the least opportune time. Europe needs to urgently develop their military capabilities independent of the US.
You're right. But he's firing political appointees which aren't so much pro-Putin as lackeys, as you say. Everything is domestic with Trump. He couldn't place Ukraine on a map. Europe has plenty of capability. What they don't have is extraordinarily poor people to pay to fight (or round up). At some point they'll have to fight though. That's my theory. They can get Russian oil/gas on their terms or they can buy it from someone like Trump on his. Interesting people don't make the connection between U.S. gas sales to Europe and Trump's desire to extort Ukraine. I agree with you. "independent of the U.S" IS urgent!
I’m curious why you think Slavs in one village tinker but identical Slavs in an identical village half a kilometer away across the border aren’t also tinkerers :)
I don't think that. The Russians are also tinkering. That's been clear from early on. However, the Ukrainians have some advantages
1.) More motivation. If Russians lose they just walk back to their border. If Russians win they round up Ukrainians and send them to gulags. So if I'm a Ukrainian I might work a teeny bit harder ;).
2.) Democratic culture. I don't want to make too big a thing of that. But the open governments won against the non-open ones the last time. It allows for greater individualism. (this blog isn't arguing against that, I believe. It's arguing against lack of training and competence in how large military units are organized and work together).
3.) Access to more like-minded tinkerers. Other tinkerers from around the world are supporting Ukraine, including Russians which, if anything, give emotional support on YouTube.
4.) Access to larger scale projects. It seems there are more home-grown drones from Ukraine than Russia, which can perform a greater variety of tasks. True?
5.) Ironically, the Russians seem to tinker more with defending than attacking in the 3rd year.
Finally, the tragedy of the whole war is the Putin regime has put more emphasis on power through resource exploitation, not Russian brainpower (which historically is no joke). I understand Ukrainians can't look at is philosophically like I do, but I look at all deaths on the battlefield, from both sides, as tragic and beyond sad. A tragedy that also lies at the West's feet too (not because of NATO) but other things.
Thanks for this analysis. I am sure you are right in describing the speed of innovation and the value of the Ukrainian research and development. However I doubt the pressure from military intelligence will stop Trump. And Trump doesn’t even care if US is hurt. As long as it doesn’t hurt him.
Thanks for the post. I understand why it is USA-centric. I also understand why it may be slightly biased on the positive side for the Palantir. Military press on new military systems by bigwigs tend to be such.
I have a question for the host. How Delta maps to the systemic issues of training of Ukrainian armed forces? How much from a strategic-level thhinking is handed over to AI / ml, even due to information overload / cognitive scaffolidngs (Hutchins) etc.?
I have an intuituon that Delta is a silent factor both in training and in command between different sizes of units in UA army. I would love to learn more about that from the people who understand those issues better than I do.
Hi. Thanks for the reply. You know that AI is suitable for anything more than aid-to routine procurement documentation or image recognition. I know that.
Unfortunately PR and lobbysts are pushing for the other understanding.
"One of the wonderful accusations is "specifications were changing with time during development leading to unjustified waste of money"
IDK, for me it is like standard "large-scale military IT procurement hell, it is not a bug but a feature for generals, lobbysts and everybody else". Ukrainian corruption of course adds up, but when it comes to IT in military every state is bleeding money through corruption. AFAIR in every major NATO IT procurement (over let's say 20 mil USD) there was some corruption case in the last 10 yrs. UA is different in scope but not in kind.
Thanks Ben, Another way that rump is doing puitn and Xi's bidding! You have to wonder if the money men in the mil industry will stand for it much longer? This will negativley impact sales down the road.
Well not "paupers", but not the richest in the party. On the other hand, many of these tech companies are hyped, in case of some crisis they may fall down quickly. E.g. Tesla recently - it's value is hyped by PR mostly. And if Elon+Trump piss off EU and China, Tesla tumbles on these markets.
How much of this technology will agent Krasnov sell to Moscow ?
Bruh get over the US election. Being this obsessed is pathetic.
No-one will be able to "get over" that calamity for at least four years, and possibly not for four decades.
It is certainly the worst thing to happen in the world since 1939, and to the US since 1861.
You're being a wee bit hyperbolic maybe?
No. Not at all hyperbolic. Simple statement of fact.
At this point it seems the States of America will never again be United, and the republic is unlikely to survive the Musk oligarchy in any recognisable form.
When cash controls all three branches of government there are neither checks nor balances, and the whole working concept of the constitution is gone.
Of course it may well turn out to be a greater calamity for the American people than 1861, and could easily be worse for the world than 1939.
I think you're just upset that the USA is threatening to not fund your favorite proxy war(s). There are huge problems, like the $36 trillion in debt and fentanyl flowing across the border, but those were problems before Trump was elected.
More of this! From early in the war I noticed that even the smallest bum-fuck bunker in Ukraine had some sort of computer. Now it's many computers and electronic devices. The other thing I noticed early on is how Ukrainians would tinker with every thing they could find. Old car, old heavy machine gun--some Ukrainian will make a happy marriage of the two.
I'll keep saying it, the "competency" of Ukrainian tinkerers is a serious equalizer to Russian military doctrine. I bet most Russian new tech is from China or North Korea--Asians. However, the Asians will sell to Ukraine too so I believe innovation will continue from the Ukrainian side first.
Trump is a bump in the road, using Ukraine as an attack vector on Biden and the woke party. All domestic politics. It will pass.
The Ukrainians won't stop inventing.
Maybe I'm just an old tinkerer projecting ;)
"Trump is a bump in the road, using Ukraine as an attack vector on Biden and the woke party. All domestic politics. It will pass."
I perceive that you are more positive about the situation than I am. I never before realized how fragile the American version of a representative gov't or a democratic republic is. It relies in part on a gentleman's agreement that, wrt the Presidency, the losing side acknowledges defeat, congratulates the winner, and at least by reference or implication asserts his (soon to be her?) support for the new, incoming president.
Nixon acknowledged defeat and refused to challenge the vote in 1960 even though there was some credible evidence in Illinois (Chicago in particular IIRC) of the vote being contaminated by corruption. Al Gore also failed to cause more trouble during the "hanging Chad" fiasco in Florida during the Presidential election of 2000. The national popular vote resulted in a whisper-thin difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates. The SCOTUS ruled in George W. Bush's favor. The vote among the SCOTUS Justices interestingly was cast on party lines (party membership). Gore let it go after that, as he should have for the good of the country.
Of course in 2020, you know whom challenged the presidential election, called it the Big STEAL, and it lead to anything but gentlemanly behavior. American democratic processes and institutions were demonstrated clearly to be fragile.
Something legal or Constitutional must be done about this. We don't have a parliamentary system wherein a no-confidence vote can change things. We only have elections and the onerously political impeachment/Senate trial process that creates political havoc across the nation.
Europe has all those things and I'm not sure in the end they end up in a better place? National security isn't, at its core, political. Maybe I'm wrong, having never worked in it or even close to it. For many reasons I didn't believe Biden should have sent weapons to Israel. But he did. I believe because those in U.S. national security told him to. The President is 4 years. National Security is timeless. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt much has changed. The news that the CIA was told to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine is for domestic consumption. National Security has to manage all Presidents and they're all focused on domestic issues.
Ukraine is too big for Russia to back out of and it's too big for the U.S. to take a Loss on. I'm sure after that meeting with Trump Zelensky's national security guys talked to the U.S. security guys and assurances were made that nothing fundamentally is going to change. Yes, the President can speed up or slow down weapons, but I don't believe he can change U.S. national security policy.
Or perhaps the U.S. wants to battle China and need Russia on its side? If that's the case then I can't see Trump being able to help with that. He's a moron surrounded by morons. Russia is now depleted.
This armchair general would rather fight with Ukrainians, against U.S. adversaries, for the reasons mentioned in this article, than the Russians who no longer have much to fight with.
And Trump does a good thing, though not his intent, he forces people to renew and strengthen their positions. After his BS in the White House I sent more to Ukraine.
Re: Trump doing a good thing ... a stopped watch is correct twice a day!
Trump can do a lot of damage as President. He already has. Our relationship with Canada, for example, may be repairable somewhat--something like an adulterous spouse repenting and then being forgiven by the offended spouse--but relations will never be the same as before. Ditto re: the Europeans.
I also see the toxic relationship of the Republican Party and Trump leading to the destruction of the Republican Party, the effects of which could be very damaging to the United States' body politic. I suppose we will just have to wait and see ....
And Trump's behavior and actions toward Ukraine plus his sucking up to Putin could end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Ukraine. Perhaps the Europeans (less Hungary and Slovakia, for example) will "finally" unite and keep Ukraine afloat. Again, we will just have to wait and see what happens.
I didn't say those National Security types are smart ;) They agree with Trump on one thing, the U.S. doesn't need anyone. Not all of them, of course. Our relationship to Canada and Mexico aren't on their radar. The European thing is different so I wouldn't be surprised if they take Trump out. Or send a message the likes of what Ross Perot was sent ;) Trump blind-sided everyone last week. I don't want to write it here but you can probably guess what I believe will happen to him (or JD Vance) if he doesn't change course about certain national security interests.
Unless those interests favor Russia. I'd need to hear that argument.
What will happen to him? Be still my beating heart! **LOL**
Disagree. Trump is firing the national security guys and replacing them with pro-Putin lackeys. Cutting off intelligence sharing is not for domestic political purposes, it was barely mentioned in the press. The great majority of people aren’t even aware it happened. It was to hurt Ukraine and aid Putin.
In addition Europe should learn that the same could happen to them, most likely at the least opportune time. Europe needs to urgently develop their military capabilities independent of the US.
You're right. But he's firing political appointees which aren't so much pro-Putin as lackeys, as you say. Everything is domestic with Trump. He couldn't place Ukraine on a map. Europe has plenty of capability. What they don't have is extraordinarily poor people to pay to fight (or round up). At some point they'll have to fight though. That's my theory. They can get Russian oil/gas on their terms or they can buy it from someone like Trump on his. Interesting people don't make the connection between U.S. gas sales to Europe and Trump's desire to extort Ukraine. I agree with you. "independent of the U.S" IS urgent!
I’m curious why you think Slavs in one village tinker but identical Slavs in an identical village half a kilometer away across the border aren’t also tinkerers :)
I don't think that. The Russians are also tinkering. That's been clear from early on. However, the Ukrainians have some advantages
1.) More motivation. If Russians lose they just walk back to their border. If Russians win they round up Ukrainians and send them to gulags. So if I'm a Ukrainian I might work a teeny bit harder ;).
2.) Democratic culture. I don't want to make too big a thing of that. But the open governments won against the non-open ones the last time. It allows for greater individualism. (this blog isn't arguing against that, I believe. It's arguing against lack of training and competence in how large military units are organized and work together).
3.) Access to more like-minded tinkerers. Other tinkerers from around the world are supporting Ukraine, including Russians which, if anything, give emotional support on YouTube.
4.) Access to larger scale projects. It seems there are more home-grown drones from Ukraine than Russia, which can perform a greater variety of tasks. True?
5.) Ironically, the Russians seem to tinker more with defending than attacking in the 3rd year.
Finally, the tragedy of the whole war is the Putin regime has put more emphasis on power through resource exploitation, not Russian brainpower (which historically is no joke). I understand Ukrainians can't look at is philosophically like I do, but I look at all deaths on the battlefield, from both sides, as tragic and beyond sad. A tragedy that also lies at the West's feet too (not because of NATO) but other things.
Thanks for this analysis. I am sure you are right in describing the speed of innovation and the value of the Ukrainian research and development. However I doubt the pressure from military intelligence will stop Trump. And Trump doesn’t even care if US is hurt. As long as it doesn’t hurt him.
Another dossier gift! Wow is chrismast!
Well, with Trump in office they tech will be in Russia's hands as soon as he learns about it.
This is what I am looking for. Thank you.
Thanks for the post. I understand why it is USA-centric. I also understand why it may be slightly biased on the positive side for the Palantir. Military press on new military systems by bigwigs tend to be such.
I have a question for the host. How Delta maps to the systemic issues of training of Ukrainian armed forces? How much from a strategic-level thhinking is handed over to AI / ml, even due to information overload / cognitive scaffolidngs (Hutchins) etc.?
I have an intuituon that Delta is a silent factor both in training and in command between different sizes of units in UA army. I would love to learn more about that from the people who understand those issues better than I do.
My guess this is not generative AI but "just" the old good image recognition (and that's used in many application for years).
Hi. Thanks for the reply. You know that AI is suitable for anything more than aid-to routine procurement documentation or image recognition. I know that.
Unfortunately PR and lobbysts are pushing for the other understanding.
"One of the wonderful accusations is "specifications were changing with time during development leading to unjustified waste of money"
IDK, for me it is like standard "large-scale military IT procurement hell, it is not a bug but a feature for generals, lobbysts and everybody else". Ukrainian corruption of course adds up, but when it comes to IT in military every state is bleeding money through corruption. AFAIR in every major NATO IT procurement (over let's say 20 mil USD) there was some corruption case in the last 10 yrs. UA is different in scope but not in kind.
Thanks Ben, Another way that rump is doing puitn and Xi's bidding! You have to wonder if the money men in the mil industry will stand for it much longer? This will negativley impact sales down the road.
Well not "paupers", but not the richest in the party. On the other hand, many of these tech companies are hyped, in case of some crisis they may fall down quickly. E.g. Tesla recently - it's value is hyped by PR mostly. And if Elon+Trump piss off EU and China, Tesla tumbles on these markets.