101 Comments

Thanks for your reporting. I still cannot believe how quickly this unfolded. This phase started what, 10 days ago? And now the rebels have taken the major cities and are entering what were "government strongholds" without a shot fired. Even the Afghan government resisted for six weeks before falling in 2021. Has there ever been a quicker government collapse at the hands of a rebel faction?

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Yup, 11 days ago. AFAIK, the Taliban take-over was slightly quicker, though.

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According to Wikipedia, the Taliban began their final offensive on the 1st of May. The 6th of August they started fighting for provincial capitals and on the 15th they took over Kabul and the Afghan president fled. So either 3 months or 9 days. Either way, incredibly quick as well

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OK, I stand corrected: didn't count the entire offensive.

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Think this kind of op is what pudding was hoping for in 22

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Not exactly a 3 days Special Military Operation, but close enough

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As I recall, the plan was to take over most of Ukraine in 10 days. The 72 hours was the time Western experts predicted Kyiv would hold out.

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Following this aggression and land grab, are we now going to see Russian type sanctions imposed on Israel and Turkey ? After all, this is unacceptable behaviour in the 21st. century ?

No?

Maybe arrest Bibi when he goes to the US or Europe ?

Again, No?

Interesting how this rules based order works. Many thanks to Israel, US, Turkey and other US allies for creating a nice little jihadi incubator so close to Europe.

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Of course not.

Arguably, Türkye has a 'mandate' (based on the UN Charter) for military operations inside Syria, on basis of 'right to self-defence' - because the PKK is a terrorist organisation at war with Türkye since 2011.

But, Israel has no mandate for anything at all. 'Of course', is no reason for anybody in 'the West' to complain about its 'bombing of Türkish-supported Islamist extremists that took over from progressive Assad'....

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But Netanyahu officially joined in the overthrow of Assad:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-832531

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Of course he did: how shall he miss an opportunity to claim the fame for himself?

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I remenbert him, walk in france, use the dead in a metal concert, for his propaganda. Or was when charlie erdod? Anycase, is a sociopat

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Well not exactly, they have Bible that describes all their mandates, though of course it is up to them to interpret it.

For example mount Hermon is considered the northernmost point of Promised Land. Which they took happily as of yesterday.

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I have a feeling about rusian/israel agrement. Please destroy all.my hardware, i left in syria. Dont want any of that in hans of ukranians or similars.

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I don't see anybody stopping Russia from imposing Russia type sanctions on Israel and Turkey.

Interesting how the "new world order" works - Russia is almighty and takes whatever it wants and ready to smash the current corrupt world order, the west should not even dare interfere in its multiple mass murder campaings. But when something goes wrong it starts whining that the west should do something about it.

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In your last story you focused on the good news. I wanted to comment, but it would spoil the party. Now (you brought it up ;)) Israel is doing what I expected Israel to do. The U.S. will pick up bombing where Russia left off? Six of one, half dozen of another for the Syrians? Nature abhors a vacuum and all that. How will this affect fuel supplies from Iran to Lebanon? Trump will distract the public with nonsense while the U.S., Turkey and Israel bomb whatever displeases them. Tell me I am wrong. I would love to be wrong.

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So is Russia really going to abandon their port and airforce base in Syria? How are they going to continue their fuckery in Africa and elsewhere without those bases to resupply and refuel?

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Sadly, the buggers will probably find a way.

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Going to have to resupply that one from Vladivostok.

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Excellent article. Has a Russian base been prepared and commissioned at Port Sudan? Reports have been sketchy.

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Dear Tom, so much happening, thank you for reporting!

As for Israelis I had my convictions already around 3 days ago, when it was reported "Israel is considering intervention in Syria", then "Israel decided to station more troops on Golan heights just in case", then "Israel helped UN to fend off cross-border intrusions", this was already when south fully under control of insurgents. So no surprise there, the only question how far it goes.

As for Turkey involvement, considering how slowly things move in the north, where is their main interest should be, they are latecomers. But again, they can choose Israeli way, of putting the boot on the ground. And then Iranians in the east, who knows. Everyone understands that window of opportunity could be short.

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Dec 8Edited

From Flight Radar, an US Navy’s P-8 Poseidon is sniffing what’s happening inland from the syrian coast…Can’t post images here but there she is, check F-R

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Have posted it, 'for you'. ;-)

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Thanks for more of your indefatigable work.

Ah but the CMO, who in one of their first propaganda acts in this putsch hoisted the Palestinian flag on the citadel of Aleppo, should be rushing to stop Israel expanding these buffer zones, which yesterday I was being told were fake news ....right? Also, "buffer zone" is a framing. Pretty sure Ben Gvir and Smotrich see it as new living-space (I won't translate the phrase.)

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Please excuse me that I've had doubts: even after all the Israeli monstrosities in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and Lebanon... and so many other places: I still thought, 'they wouldn't be THAT stupid'...

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Well, considering al-Jawlani background, which is Golani, I doubt it would not be a precept for further miseries in the area. And in a few years there will media full of reports of a "monstrous terrorists from Syria" "attacking peaceful Israel".

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Few years?

Is already the case.

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It is a war nickname. Not his real one. He was not born in the unoccupied Golan either.

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Nicknames are there for a reason normally. And with Israeli now trying to beat south of Syria military facilities into stone age will not be forgotten, if I understand something. It is exactly what russians did to Ukraine, coming in the moment of weakness and instability and using it for own gain.

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Now the warmonger No. 1 of the region, Israel makes it's move. And if they really try to create a larger 'buffer' zone, it will be the move with the biggest implications.

Why, you may ask?

Between Syria and Israel there is a DMZ from the last official hot war, controlled by an UN mandate (UNDOF).

Technically it would be absolutely no problem for the IDF to 'walk through', but it would be as far as I know (please feel free to correct me) the first time that an UN member state walks through an UN mission.

If the UN wouldn't react to such a move, then it would be time to dissolve the UN.

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It is time, long ago. They would definitely go at least 1974 line, but I think further then that

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Those of you who don't have the daily pleasure of listening to the BBC might have missed this little gem at around 9.00 this morning. Lyce Doucet, their expert on the ground, announced "I have just been told..." that the forces taking Damascus was not the "Islamists" coming from the north but a different group, coming from the south.

She could have saved herself the trouble of getting on a plane and read Tom's reports. Or maybe that's what she means by "I have just been told".

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😂😂😂😂😂

Thanks a lot. Was in need of a good laugh.

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That is indeed funny. He was told and then we should be told. And afterwards everything is 'reality'.

Yes that is the way PR bullshit works.

By the way, how to use Emojis in substack (copy/paste)?

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FYI, you can use emojis just about anywhere if you use the ones embedded in Unicode, e.g. with Win+Dot shortcut on Windows, or dedicated buttons on smartphone screen keyboards, or whatever other way your platform provides. The results will differ depending on how the site or application in question shows them, though.

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✨Amazing✨

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With MAC (at least mine) just hit the Fn Button (out of Substack), right click and copy character info. Enjoy! 😀

grinning face

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Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said “The events in Syria are far from being a reason for celebration,” “bottom line is that most of Syria is now controlled by subsidiaries of al-Qaeda and ISIS.” Israeli intelligence and policymakers operate on the same level of understanding as YouTube comment section.

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Or Israeli intelligence and policymakers know exactly what is going on and are setting teh narrative for Israel to 'protect' itself from 'subsidiaries of al-Qaeda and ISIS.'

And the West will eat it up...

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The first thing Israel spokesmen have to say about any Arab faction serving or coinciding with Israeli interests is that they doesn't serve or coincide with its interests. Also, much like Putin, you know they're lying because their lips are moving.

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"The Israeli ground troops, supported by air strikes, are in the process of conquering even more of Syria (in addition to the Golan Heights), in the northern Qunaitra. All of the Qunaitra, Dera’a and Suwayda provinces are under the insurgent control since yesterday, remaining Assadists formations all disarmed. Thus, by best will: this is an aggression and yet another land-grab in the making.

Additionally, the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF) is flying air strikes in the Dera’a Province (apparently: the Inkhil area and the Sheikh Miskin area)., and the Khelkhleh AB, in north-western Suwayda Province. The Ahrar Horan OR reports that the air strikes have destroyed military depots in Tel Hamad and Tel al-Thilab."

As I commented on one of the initial posts that noted that the insurgents were capturing significant amounts of tanks, IFVs, and other higher end hardware, Israel wasn't going to let that go on.

And Israel <b>always<b> sees the need for ever deeper security buffers.

And Likud's 'river to the sea' mandate is only the starting point for the Erestz Israel wing who have their goal as conquering all of the lands promised to Abraham -

""I will establish your borders from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, and from the desert to the Euphrates River. I will give into your hands the people who live in the land, and you will drive them out before you. Do not make a covenant with them or with their gods. Do not let them live in your land or they will cause you to sin against me, because the worship of their gods will certainly be a snare to you." – Exodus 23:31–33" - NIV.

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Yes and as anyone with a little knowledge of history knows, this bite was far too big, with it's consequences.

If they try it again, it will end the same way and even worse, as the whole region will be 'dead' and no further 'comebacks'.

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Yahweh was like the Indians selling Manhattan to the Dutch, then the English, then the Americans.

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What was your job in Syria, if I may ask? And when were you there?

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He's a triple agent, working for Mossad, CIA and Mukhabarat. ;)

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I thought he is a spy of north korea, india, russia, somalia, uk, israel, iran, turkey, qatar, usa, and above all of the mars people (yeah, you don't know but human colonized mars thousands of years ago, they are the ones who built pyramids before leaving earth, and tom is their head of espionage)

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Well, as a professional multispy, he obviously isn't allowed to let people seriously suspect that he's spying for all of these, so he's telling it on a blog named "Sarcastosaurus" so that we all believe it's a joke (or at least think that only some of these are true). Spies are devious people.

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Multispy sounds really good 👍 especially in the age of multiverse 😅

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Anyway, if I had to choose one, I'd bet on CIA. Pretty obvious that "C" stands for "Cooper". Apparently, he's just always so busy with his books and blog that they are the last ones to get updates on what's going on.

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You forgot the MILFs from the Philipnes!

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Those and more!

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Be careful earthling. The Martian connection is not to be mentioned. (I will only say this once.)

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The day Israel no longer sees enemies around it is the day the country simply collapses, it seems.

As you said, Benny is looking for trouble again. Now he has boastfully said that the 1974 agreement was abolished with the end of Assad and that Israel now has the "right" to expand the "buffer zone". Benny has also said that he (Israel) will not tolerate any troops, no matter which ones, on its borders. In doing so, he has once again confirmed for the whole world what we already knew, namely that Israel sees the occupied Golan Heights as its territorial border and will never reverse this breach of international law.

There was a spark of hope that somewhere in the world the situation would at least improve a little, but the idiots are taking control again...

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Well, if it doesn’t have external enemies it will have to find internal ones. Most countries are the same. Look at the USA with the end of the cold war and Islamic terrorism no longer being a serious threat.

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It already has - a bill in the Knesset is looking to purge any academics who 'support/incite terrorism' by criticizing the government, its conduct of the war, support in any for for Palestinians, etc.

It is also shutting down a public stating devoted to Israeli heritage - presumably not showcasing the 'right heritage - while creating a government off ice for 'heritage.'

Israelis must have the 'proper' education and heritage - shades of a certain German regime in the 20th Century (and various other totalitarian governments in history).

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Reminds me of the RF and the current government in Germany.

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"Well, if it doesn’t have external enemies it will have to find internal ones"

Circa 1000 BC current Isreal was split into two kingdoms, Judah and Isreal (of note,some early maps show Syria as part of the northern Kingdom of Isreal). Disagreements between them resulted in the War on Mount Zemaraim (and other conflicts). Loser according to records lost about 500,000 soldiers. Information on this history is steeped in religious sources, both Jewish and Christain, but suffice to say Isreal was not always one happy family.

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Not always one happy family? Rather a question when they were…

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'Bibi' is a criminal idiot, who thinks he can make everyone more stupid than himself. A contract binds it's partner, who are in that case states. and not persons or governments.

Hafiz al-Assad died in 2000, Golda Meir died 1978 and Yitzhak Rabin was killed in 1995 by an Israelian religious extremist (student of law !) named Yigal Amir.

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And Amir was inspired to act (at least in part) by the rhetoric of the aforementioned 'Bibi.'

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Possible, but in that case it was just the 'icing on the cake', as he did get his 'foundations' as a Hesder student. Even his comrades during military service, despite serving in a 'religious' unit, considered him a religious fanatic.

Some details about him can be found for example here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yigal_Amir

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Tom is about the only sane and sober commentary I'm getting on Syria that isn't days behind the actual fighting.

Thanks!

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Israel seems to have imbued the logic of Rome (at least as espoused by some) -

The only secure border with an enemy is the enemy's far border.

And as stated by an Obama Administration official in an interview - 'When the Romans conquered a village they took the local authorities and crucified them as an example for the populace.'

Although in Gaza the strategy appears to be more that employed with Carthage - razing to the ground with the caveat that rather than sowing it with salt it will be occupied...

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Historical reality was a little bit different.

1) There is a huge difference between Rome as a Republic and Rome as an Empire.

2) Normally Rome would use terror as a tool when it thought it would be necessary, but not terror for terror's sake.

3) Byzanz as the late Rome is a little bit of a 'speciality' as it worked over centuries very hard for it's own downfall.

4) Carthage is a single very special case, as it seems that Rome was too much afraid of a recovery of an enemy, who almost 'got' them. The final act 146 BC is full of lies and treachery to the local population of Carthage to make them weak and defenceless.

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I have read that Rome also had a policy that when an enemy city fell after a siege that the troops were ordered to kill every living thing inside until ordered to desist.

Just as Jacob ordered at Jericho and appears to have been a standard practice in that era and with some armies for centuries after (Mongols and others).

Presumably to 'terrorize' other cities/nations to surrender.

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That did depend on the situation, as Rome was very practical. Dead people won't pay taxes, cannot harvest fields, one cannot sell them into slavery (very important for the later period of the Republic and especially the empire period, etc.

As a general rule the Roman army was very disciplined, not just a mob in arms.

They also didn't have that 'religious' faith that a country was 'promised' to them.

All rulers who wanted to build an empire did know that and did behave accordingly, because a real empire would always have a mixture of different populations, with different traditions and religions. There was no way to replace everyone with the own population.

By the way polytheistic religions are far more tolerant than monotheistic ones.

Mongols are a completely different story, but if one was willing to pay the tribute from the very beginning, they wouldn't start with needless killing.

I am referring mainly to Genghis Khan, the much later

Timur Lenk is a slightly different story.

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As to slavery, I have commented elsewhere that for all the horrors that could be and were inflicted on slaves, one could consider that for some war captives at least it was better than than being slaughtered out of hand. Those taken in slave raids now were a different matter.

On your point on empire building it was with interest years ago to read that rather than killing everyone when they conquered another nation/kingdom that the Assyrians very often relocated the conquered populations to other areas in their empire in order to break their ties and make them assimilable.

Not sure how much more tolerant all of those polytheistic religions are, but I listened to a nice discussion in a podcast from the Shalom-Hartman institute that noted that current International Humanitarian Law is based largely on Catholic and to a lesser extent Jewish doctrine. This was post October 7th and it was rather interesting to hear the two rabbis still congratulating each other on the fact that the IDF was the 'most humanitarian army in the world.'

Of course IHL has more to do with the conduct of war and the treatment of civilian populations rather than religious tolerance, but it does bear on that as well.

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And some day scream"gaza delebda est"? I suppose...

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Delenda**

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Great reporting. You note “The CMO has granted the Russians 48 hours to complete their evacuation of the Hmeymim AB and other military installations in Syria.”

Russian forces freed up for duty in Ukraine?

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Good question. Some are moving to Port Sudan, others going home.

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What is the route of the ships evacuating Russians from Tartus to Russia? Are the Turks letting them pass the Bosphorus?

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Not yet sure. Theoretically (Montreaux), the Russians are not permitted to return their troops on board of civilian merchants through the Bosphorus.

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Coincidently, I’ll seen a post imply Erdogan as the “mustachioed cockroach” in giving permissions to Russia to evacuate. Hard feelings here?

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