Syrian War, 8 December 2024: (Of course) It's (not) Over
Hello everybody!
Just when one thinks one could relax a bit…
Israel - who else - is in the process of ‘expanding its buffer zone’ around Israel-occupied (and illegally annexed) Golan Heights.
The Israeli ground troops, supported by air strikes, are in the process of conquering even more of Syria (in addition to the Golan Heights), in the northern Qunaitra. All of the Qunaitra, Dera’a and Suwayda provinces are under the insurgent control since yesterday, remaining Assadists formations all disarmed. Thus, by best will: this is an aggression and yet another land-grab in the making.
Additionally, the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF) is flying air strikes in the Dera’a Province (apparently: the Inkhil area and the Sheikh Miskin area)., and the Khelkhleh AB, in north-western Suwayda Province. The Ahrar Horan OR reports that the air strikes have destroyed military depots in Tel Hamad and Tel al-Thilab.
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Elsewhere…
With help of services like Flightradar24.com, one could monitor the flight of several Ilyushin Il-76 transports of ether the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Air & Space Force or the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) over Syria. RUMINT has it that two were turned away by the IASF. This one passed Homs, though:
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Manbij… The Türkish-supported SNA is reporting a break-through of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDf-lines and a major advance in the Manbij. Indeed, there are reports that Manbij is already under their control.
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Raqqa
There is a popular uprising against the PKK/YPG/SDF in Raqqa.
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Dayr az-Zawr
Over the night, the CMO-forces have made a rapid advance into the western Dayr az-Zawr Province. As of the noon local time, they’ve linked up with tribes that sprang an anti-PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-uprising north and south of Dayr az-Zawr (city).
The USA did not react, but it is Israel that is flying air strikes on insurgents - for example in the Mayadin area.
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Latakia
The CMO has granted the Russians 48 hours to complete their evacuation of the Hmeymim AB and other military installations in Syria. Moreover, early this morning, CMO forces have entered the city of Latakia. I used to take walks up and down the street visible on that video: thats just some 20-minutes-drive from the Hmeymim AB (in the usual local traffic, of course). The first of Hafez al-Assad’s statues was already removed.
The Keystone Cops in Moscow report that, ‘there is currently no serious threat to the security of Russian military bases in Syria’. Leaves one wondering why is the Ukrainian GUR reporting that the Russian Mediterranean Flotilla is escorting cargo ships involved in the evacuation. Or, why is, for their part, a VKS-pilot Captain Ilya Tumanov, quoted for reporting in the Russian social media:
“We are leaving Syria. Preparations for the withdrawal of equipment have begun.”
“Syria is over. The Turks took Syria without a fight.”
“It looks like we have reached an agreement with Turkey. Syria is theirs now. We have been stabbed in the back again.”
(Actually, ‘they’ have reached an agreement with the CMO: Türkye has no say in this regards - except to grant them an overflight permission.)
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Masyaf… This is something I’ve really got ‘problems to believe’: reports have it, the CMO has entered the town of Masyaf, the last night.
Masyaf was one of three pillars of the 'Russian triangle': Hmeymim - Mayaf - Tartous. The main concentration of the Russian forces in Syria since 2015-2016 (so much so, even the IRGC and Hezbollah moved some of their most important bases to this area, to 'hug' the Russians - in hope the Israelis might not bomb them there, because they're 'too close to the Russians').
Masyaf was also a hot-bed of Assadism. But, the report says, it was taken 'without fighting'.
OK, lets wait for a confirmation…
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Damascus… something for those to whom only that matters: Christians in Damascus are celebrating an early Christmas (and, yes, that’s a church visible in the background: there are dozens of churches around the city, and that’s going to remain that way in the future, too).
English-language video-report by Zeina Khodr (al-Jazeera) from one of Assad’s palaces in Damascus.
On the other hand, reports have it that the Central Bank is in the process of being looted. Notable: there are no insurgents nearby (they’ve got the order to keep off any of official institutions).
Similarly, the Iranian Press TV is reporting that ‘militants’ have stormed the embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Damascus.
Meanwhile, there is a search for secret prisons of the Assadist regime, too. For example, two of these were located in Damascene suburbs:
‘The source, who had previously inspected the two prisons and knows their exact location, said that there are large numbers of detainees who must be released from these two horrific prisons, the location of which is unknown to many Syrians. The source provided Zaman al-Wasl with the coordinates and an accurate description of the location of the two prisons, calling for the immediate release of the detainees held in them. The source added that ascending a few hundred meters on the road between the Mezzeh Airport and the palace, we will be in front of a huge secret prison located to the left of the person ascending. If we continue walking for a few hundred more meters, we will find another secret prison, on the right side, affiliated with the Republican Guard Security Office.’
Rather unsurprisingly, the CMO has imposed a curfew in Damascus, starting with 16.00hrs local time and ending with 05.00hrs the following morning (is the same they did in Aleppo, about a week ago and certainly necessary to prevent the chaos for growing further).
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On a private note: it’s getting scary to watch all the videos from different prisons - and figuring out I’m… hoping to find one or another person that disappeared a decade or more ago… at least as amazing is how many of Assadist social media accounts ‘doesn’t exist’ any more, or are now babbling about ‘regime’ (after deleting all their posts of the last week, or even months)…
Those of you who don't have the daily pleasure of listening to the BBC might have missed this little gem at around 9.00 this morning. Lyce Doucet, their expert on the ground, announced "I have just been told..." that the forces taking Damascus was not the "Islamists" coming from the north but a different group, coming from the south.
She could have saved herself the trouble of getting on a plane and read Tom's reports. Or maybe that's what she means by "I have just been told".
In your last story you focused on the good news. I wanted to comment, but it would spoil the party. Now (you brought it up ;)) Israel is doing what I expected Israel to do. The U.S. will pick up bombing where Russia left off? Six of one, half dozen of another for the Syrians? Nature abhors a vacuum and all that. How will this affect fuel supplies from Iran to Lebanon? Trump will distract the public with nonsense while the U.S., Turkey and Israel bomb whatever displeases them. Tell me I am wrong. I would love to be wrong.